Sunshine Millions Week

January 16 - 21

I had a very good week for Sunshine Millions Week, if I do say so myself.  For the week I had fifty-three selections and cashed on twenty-one winners - that's 40% my friends (and had 70% of my picks hit the board).  Considering that I missed with big bets on Saturday, the fact that I lost less than $20 and had an ROI of $1.93 for the week is pretty remarkable at what has to be considered the toughest meet to handicap in the country.  Here's how it all unfolded.....

Wednesday January 16

In the opener for the week I took Wesley Ward's Scribe who'd not been out since March, but he was 33% with long layoff types.  Edged to the front in deep stretch only to be nailed on the wire by a 9/2 closer.  So close.  But then I came right back with back to back winners.  In the third Arch of Troy was my pick in a one mile turf event for non-winners of three lifetime.  The problem with 'Troy was that he HAD already five losses in conditioned company.  But what I liked was that she had always been close, had run well enough under top jockey Luis Saez to take the mount again; and what really appealed to me was that she had a best-of-55 bullet work since her last.  She pressed the pace into the stretch, opened up a length then held on by the narrowest of margins for my first win of the day.  Right back in the fourth with a Todd Pletcher runner.  I found it ironic that this horse had the name, Just Ain't Right because of his last race.  When Kim and I left for our Christmas Markets Cruise on December 11th I had decided that while we were in Europe I would not be handicapping nor playing the races.  Well, at Gulfstream in the winter a Pletcher 3yo maiden is always an automatic $10 WIN bet.  On December 13 while we were in Europe he debuted here in a 3yo maiden event and not only won but paid $14.20 - I would have made nearly $75.  Sigh.  So he was running back today in an entry level allowance.  Dueled from the half mile pole to the wire and was JUST up in time.  OK, now I don't feel so bad about the just miss opener.

Two for three to start the week, and I'm off to a pretty good start.  In the fifth Bill Mott had actually claimed Macgone.  Surged to the front in mid-stretch but was caught, second....sigh.  Ran fourth at 7/2 in another entry level event and then we came to the eighth race, a mile and a sixteenth turf race for three-year-old maiden claimers.  Yes - there was a Pletcher filly, but the problem was there were TWO of them.  I liked Stefanie On Fleek with John Velazquez who somehow was listed at a huge 10/1 price in the program despite dropping in for a first time tag today.  My guess was she was such a price because of the other Pletcher filly Full Swing.  But I didn't like her AT ALL.  She had debuted as the 4/5 favorite and ran second on the turf.  Came back in an off-the-turf event, was the 4/5 favorite again and ran second, again.  In her third start, over the Keeneland grass she was third at 9/5.  Then last time out she was 7th at Churchill at 5/2 odds.  And NONE of those races had speed figures that would lead you to believe she had talent.  Stefanie On Fleek made her move in the lane and ran past the long-time leader, and outfinished another closer......but in mid-stretch Full Swing blew by and won by daylight.  My third runner-up finish of the day.  The ninth was a second level event going a one-turn mile.  Both the top program choices had two career wins.  But while Tweeting (8/5) had a resume of 15/2-3-3 Bill Mott's Golden Award (2/1) was lightly raced and only 5/2-2-0.  And what I really liked was "her story."  Mott next to never has them ready to go at first asking, so the fact that she didn't run well in her debut wasn't a surprise, but the fact she was favored was.  Came back to run second twice and then dominated maidens two back.  And then last out she won again over entry level runners.  She looked to have much more upside and perhaps ability that Tweeting.  The two of them ran together in 2nd and 3rd separated by less than a length behind the 12/1 front runner to the far turn, and then they accelerated.  Tweeting took a brief narrow lead and then Golden Award kicked into another gear and drew off by a widening 3 1/2 lengths.

The crowd apparently interpreted the past performances the way I did because Tweeting was 5/2 while Golden Award was 4/5.  Still, cashed for nearly $20 on my third win today!  In the finale of the Wednesday card it was a maiden claiming event on the turf.  It was for older, but Unoffensive was JUST the kind of runner that had made last winter my best ever.  A Todd Pletcher turf entry who was going off at a price with top jockey Luis Saez up.  It was a dicey situation to interpret because the connections had thrown down $300K to buy this colt, and as a 4yo he'd not run yet.  Then for his debut he's entered in a modest $20K maiden claiming event?  That does NOT speak much for his perceived talent!  But, hey, these are the kind you can make some money on so I doubled the bet!  There were only two first time starters in the field and the other was 50/1 as he led them into the far turn.  But Unoffensive was tracking in third and looked ready to roll.  Saez asked for run and he came to the leader, but that one, despite the odds was not done yet!  They dueled to the furlong pole before Unoffensive edged clear (well worth noting that the 50/1 hung on for second keying a $2 exacta for $275!).

And the best part, Unoffensive went off at better than 4/1 so I cashed for over $50 to close out an excellent 4-for-8 first day of the week!

Thursday January 17
At any other track, at any other time of the year I would have liked Bill Mott's Country House in the third, a maiden special for three-year-olds.  But this is Gulfstream and Bebeau was a Todd Pletcher colt who had been second in his debut behind what appeared to be a promising Chad Brown winner.  So that was the bet.  Country House should not have been expected to run well in debut, as a Mott trainee and was bet accordingly when leaving the gate at 49/1!  But he was second and earned a huge Beyer figure of 85.  Now you see why I'd have pounded him at any other meet.  Bebeau was 2/1 and fourth as they approached the turn.  But then didn't go on with it.  Country House lingered at the back then blew by going last to first and drawing off impressively as the 4/5 favorite.  Sigh.....The fourth race today was an entry level allowance going a mile on the turf.  If you follow my analysis you know that typically when there isn't a pick, then there is very little that I comment about in the race commentary.  But most often when there IS a bet, there's a pretty detailed description.  Not the case here.  I remarked that it was a very weak group and that Supercommittee was coming out of NYRA allowance for Chad Brown; was a Klaravich Stables runner and got Javier Castellano.  Take the connections and the weak field, and that's the bet.  Period.  She sat fourth as the 6/5 favorite behind the 7/5 second choice to the turn.  Moved up willing and then drew off handily.  I've got my first winner of the day!

Cashed for nearly $25 - it's shaping up to be a good week!  The sixth was a six furlong claiming event for non-winners of three lifetime and it was a pretty weak collection of "sprinters" I thought.  But Go Go Jak was lightly raced with only four starts, had finished first or second in three of those AND was first off the claim for owner Frank Calabrese with top rider Luis Saez.  The class plunge and the trainers 0-for record at the meet were a bit worrisome.  But last Saturday I missed a 6/1 winner because the trainer was 0-for; not today.  Tripled the bet and 'Jak looked like a Breeders' Cup Champion facing allowance foes as he drew off by more than a dozen widening lengths and finished under wraps.

One last pick in the 7th, a 3yo MSW five furlong sprint on the turf.  Standup was a Todd Pletcher firster with Saez up listed at 5/1 odds.  Have to take those kind!  Was bothered somewhat at the start and ninth of the ten.  Wide off the turn but absolutely flying at 4/1 odds, but just couldn't get to the 9/1 winner who'd had a much better trip.  Tab Standup for the next time out!

Friday January 18
Only five selection seemed worth wagering on today.  Passed the opening two and in the third it was a maiden claiming event for older runners going a one-turn mile.  Typically I do NOT like to bet on runners who are coming back facing someone they ran against last time out.  But in this case I thought that Underestimate truly deserved a play over Mo Moxie for a variety of reasons.  It didn't seem like either had had a "troubled trip" by looking at the pps, so I watched the replay.  And again I wouldn't say one deserved an upgrade on trip alone, but I did think that maybe Underestimate would run better if NOT pinned down inside.  And I liked the fact that Mo Moxie had gotten a clean run to rally but had not ever caught Underestimate.  Never been a big believer in weight as a handicapping factor, but it couldn't hurt that Mo Moxie was picking up six pounds while Underestimate picked up a single pound - go figure.  Underestimate dueled three wide, got to the front and when Mo Moxie came with her run she again could not get by.  Cashed for nearly $25 to start the day!

Missed on two small bets then closed the day with two Todd Pletcher runners.  Again, like the Standup race yesterday, I'd probably have bet on Bourbon War if this 3yo mile and a sixteenth entry level allowance had been any where else.  He'd run well in the Remsen and was highly regarded.  But Cutting Humor was a Pletcher runner who had been purchased for $400K and had John Velazquez today.  Has to be the bet.  He was the 2/1 second choice and positioned a couple lengths in front of Bourbon of War into the turn.  But that one was much too good and drew off as the 3/2 favorite - has such gotten some publicity as a possible Derby runner.  In the finale we were going a mile on the turf in maiden claiming company.  River of Fire had debuted in a $20K event at GPW - that's NOT a good sign; and showed little.  Also, NOT a good sign.  But then ran fourth here for the same tag.  Ok, improvement.  Added blinkers today which almost certainly had led to a sharp bullet work.  Might be ready to fire at a nice price I thought.  Had drawn the rail and that became a problem when steadied sharply entering the first turn.  And even fourth to close the day.

Saturday January 19

It's Sunshine Millions Day and I had picks from five different tracks as I headed out to the races today on a beautiful Saturday afternoon!  From a handicapping point of view, it was a VERY good day as I picked ten winners from twenty-four selections - nearly 50%.  But the fact that not one but two "big bet" selections failed to win cost me a profitable day.  Click HERE to read the write-up on the 2019 Sunshine Millions Day experience!

Sunshine Millions Day Highlights

Sunday January 20
Overnight rains moved all the turf races to the main track and that led to scratches of two of my five selections today.  In the second it was a slow collection of 3yo maiden claimers.  But My Own Mo had earned back-to-back 43 Beyers - nothing to write home about for sure - and those numbers stood out over the numbers posted by the others (34, 8, -0, 22, and 16).  And the two first timers didn't look like much.  Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 choice he was close to the turn and then faded, finishing an off-the-board fourth.  In the last two plays of the day I ran third with the DRF BEST of the day, who I did like enough to put the minimum on and then third again with a Todd Pletcher returnee.  Impact Player had been highly regarded last year but had not run since disappointing in the Hutcheson here last winter.  Near the back early John Velazquez had to work on him from the get go and it was a struggle to get a share of the minor awards.

Monday January 21
A special holiday card closed out the week.  I hadn't even thought about there being live racing today until Friday and when I checked out the entries on Brisnet it looked like the kind of card that might produce two or three selections.  But in going through the past performances I found SEVEN runners worthy of a wager.  And in surfing through the racing news on Sunday I found that Santa Anita was running a graded stakes today with a runner who looked like a "free bingo square" in the multiple race wagers.  It was a nw3L turf sprint and there was little NOT to like about Awsum Roar.  While the rest of the field had languished at this $16K 3L level previously, 'Roar had only been in ONE three-lifetime event, and that had been for a $35K tag at the strong Belmont fall meet.  In addition, that race had been six furlongs in distance and after five furlongs - today's distance - she had been in front.  Now toss in the best turf sprint trainer in the country, Jason Servis, with hot-riding Irad Ortiz and well, you get the picture.  But when I opened the replays I was surprised that she was bet down all the way to 1/5 odds.  Came rolling like a woman among girls and drew off widening lengths without ever being asked to run.

Missed with the 9/5 favorite in the third who ran on evenly.  In the fourth you COULD have made the case to load up on what was certain to be the short-priced favorite, Breaking Bread.  ALL of her races had been in allowance or stakes company with one exception back in June.  She was dropping out of the Grade 3 Rampart to run in this starter optional claimer that she only qualified for because of that June try.  She'd gone from a mile on the slop to a sprint last fall and won, and today was going from a mile in the slop in the Rampart to today's six furlong sprint.  AND top rider Luis Saez was riding for Jorge Navarro who is very clever with spotting his horses where they not only should win but where they should dominate.  For me I just didn't want to load up on what I knew would be a short priced favorite - unlike the opener where I was surprised Awesum Roar was so short of a price.  Breaking Bread pressed the leader into the turn while obviously being loaded to run.  When Saez gave her the green light the rest were just running for second money.  Drew off sharply by a half a dozen widening lengths.

Missed in an entry level allowance with a runner who had fired a big bullet work (4th at 5/2) then Chad Brown's Summer in Saratoga looked like the best of the first timers in a 3yo MSW on the turf.  She was!  But three runners with experience (5/1, 50/1, and 2/1) finished ahead of her belated rallying fourth.  Now if you follow me, especially here at Gulfstream you KNOW that any Pletcher 3yo is an automatic play and 99.9% of the time a double investment.  On December 7th Todd Pletcher had sent out C Major on the turf and so I doubled the investment.  Paid $9.20 and I cashed for nearly $50.  Today he was running back in a Starter Allowance.  As I looked over the race I really didn't think he was a strong win play; and let's be honest, the Pletcher races that are "automatic" are almost always 3yo maiden events, this was 3yo winners.  Still, listed at 8/1 in the program AND Luis Saez gets on?  But I don't want to play blindly, Pletcher doesn't win ALL races he has a horse in (though it may seem like it, especially when you do NOT bet him).  Back and forth, finally decided I would be so dismayed if C Major won at a price and I didn't play, so I compromised and bet the minimum.  He pressed the lead, edged to the front and in mid-stretch was confronted by a 4/1 rival who had all the momentum.  But Saez worked hard on him and C Major was all heart!

Oh that's right, and check the price out!  Of course in hindsight NOW I wish I'd gone with the standard $10 play because I'd have cashed for nearly $75!  But I'll take the more than $35 payout.  Three wins already and I really thought that Fierce Scarlett in the 9th, my last GP play was a very likely winner.  Lightly raced filly from Chad Brown's barn she had been the favorite last time out in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland.  While she didn't win, she was within five of the winner that day.  Didn't like the outside draw but IF she were good enough to be favored in a Gr 2, and she WAS from the Chad Brown barn, I thought she'd be good enough here despite the post.  She was tenth of eleven early and then was FLYING through the lane.  According to the results comments she switched leads back and forth, running greenly which HAD to have cost her through the lane.  JUST missed to the nearly wire-to-wire winner at 12/1.  So for the day at Gulfstream I'd gone three for seven and had made money on the day.  But wait!  I still had the Grade 3 Megahertz Stakes from Santa Anita.  We were at the Panthers game - and enjoying ice cream in a suite no less - when I was able to pull up the replay.  Vasilika had been claimed for $40K about a year and a half ago and had rattled off eight straight wins to push her earnings to more than $800K.  She'd run in a Grade 1 last time and had the winning streak snapped, but today she was back in a Grade 3 event, going her favorite distance of one mile and if she had any pace help at all she looked to be a winner.  As I watched the replay I was encouraged that what had started out as a loose-on-the-lead front runner was being challenged by two others as they sped down the backside.  Vasilika was patiently handled and began to pick off runners as they approached the far turn.  She had all the momentum but was wide while circling the field on the turn.  About five from the front when heads turned for home she now noticeably found another gear and blew by under a confident hand ride.  My double investment returned $16 and I now had a 4-for-8 Monday with a profit of almost $25!  Go me!

Tropical Turf Week

January 9 - 13:  Tropical Turf Week

The week was far short of what I became accustomed to last winter, but overall wasn't a "bad" week of racing as I had two winning days from the five days.  Just not BIG winning days.  Keep plugging along as you never know when that BIG DAY is coming.

Wednesday January 9

In the week's opener I had mixed feelings about Alpha Orionis.  It was a maiden 3yo race and he was a Pletcher trainee, so duh.  But he'd debuted in MSW company and broken slowly and finished sixth of seven in his debut.  Right away today he was PLUNGING to maiden $12.5K, obviously the connections were giving up on their expensive $325K purchase....that can't be good.  Still, Pletcher with top rider Luis Saez.  Right to the front with a clear advantage into the lane, caught on the wire in a photo finish.....I'm on the inside, obviously:

No bet until the 5th.  Again my pick, Bluesky Kitten right to the front until caught in deep stretch by a first time starter at 43/1.  Sigh.  My horse was a no-show in the 7th at 4/1 and my final pick in the 9th scratched.

Thursday January 10

The opener today was a starter optional claiming event on the turf and Uncle B looked to be the favorite coming off a win in the Claiming Crown Emerald with a purse of over $100K, but with conditions for a $25K starter.  So it wasn't REALLY a big class drop, but still, after winning a big purse like that I'd think he'd be in a richer spot that this.  So I only went with the minimum play.  He was confidently handled inside to the lane, swung out and drew off under Irad Ortiz as the 7/5 favorite.

The third was a maiden claiming event but Stronger Kat looked to have appeal going first off the claim for owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Saffie Joseph.  Again Irad Ortiz was up.  Pressed on the lead through the opening quarter then he kissed the field a pleasant Thursday afternoon as he opened up by larger and larger margins with each passing pole, finishing some 9+ clear of the runner-up in the end.

The rest of the day, disappointing.  Finished fifth as the 3/2 favorite in the third with Pretty Shea D despite the link to my sweetie former student Christy Shade; in the 6th A Bit Of Both was the prohibitive 1/9 favorite - second, not even close.  And in the ninth Todd Pletcher's Quasar Moon was third as the 8/5 favorite with Luis Saez.  Two-for-five is 40% but both winners had the minimum, sigh......

Friday January 11

Finally a winning day!  In the opener I was third as the 5/2 second choice.  The third was a "beaten" claiming event with conditions that read, ".....for 4yo and up which have never won three races or have not won a race since July 31....."  Well, lo and behold Royal Asscher was a SIX-time winner and the last win came on July 27th!  Tracked the leaders into the stretch and then seemed to "shift gears" and blew by to draw off as the even money favorite!

The fourth was my "day-maker" though I use the term loosely.  Joy of Treasure was my pick.  First she was dropping from MSW to maiden claiming, but even better.  Of the thirty-eight numbers earned by the rest of the field three would beat the LAST THREE she'd earned.  Looked awfully good to me so I doubled the bet.  She was tenth and last into the far turn and then began to roll.  Six wide into the lane she was flying and was up in time.

She was the favorite but the $5.20 payoff meant I'd collect almost $30 and that ensured a profit for the day because there weren't any "big bets" on the day.  I was third at 5/1 in the eighth and last at 5/2 in the finale.  Again, 2-for-5 but today I finished in the black.  Maybe it's an omen of a big day tomorrow when I'll be on track!

January 12:  Tropical Turf Day

I had high hopes today and picks from multiple tracks on my three-page selection sheet.  I wasn't surprised or disappointed when my pick in the first didn't win at 7/1 odds, thought it was worth a shot.  WAS surprised when my pick in the opener at Aqueduct weakened to be 2nd in the opener at Aqueduct at even money, sigh.  Passed the second at Gulfstream but had a Pletcher maiden in the third.  The problem was Firm had been 2/1 in his debut at Tampa - that alone was a "hmmm" moment.  And that he didn't win was another.  But the big red flag was being brought here and plunging from that Maiden Special debut to a meager $12.5K claiming event.  Obviously had no intention of keeping the runner, but was he simply too good with Luis Saez up for the competition.  Decided he was and he was clear by daylight and cruising at the 1/8th pole before having to work hard to finish to the wire.  But hey, a winner is a winner!

I passed both the third and the fourth at Gulfstream as well.  And THAT proved to be prophetic and the "story of the day."  In the second - remember I'd passed - my top choice won, at 3/1 odds.  In the fourth, my top choice won, at 6/1 odds!  And in the fifth my top choice won at 5/1 odds.  You can check the analysis to see why I didn't bet them - especially in the fourth, who would figure a 4-for-69 rider would win for a barn that was 0-for-39 at the meet?  You KNOW how the rest of the day went, right?

Sigh.....Fortunately while that was playing out I had two wins at Laurel.  In their 2nd, a maiden claiming event the 3rd and 4th place runners from a $16K event were running again for a dime.  But I thought Malabar could be the upset special going for the leading trainer at Laurel who was winning at a 27% clip overall and 36% with second time starters.  Right to the front and long gone.  AND the price was a generous $8.40!

The third was the first of the multiple stakes events in Maryland, the What A Summer Stakes.  Here Late Nite Pow Wow looked to be a prohibitive favorite.  She was 9-for-10 lifetime and that included a win here when shipping in from her Charles Town base.  She made very short work of the overmatched rivals and scored as my Laurel BEST BET.

After a third at Aqueduct I had my first pick at the Fair Grounds.  It was a state-bred second allowance sprint and the favorite Shakopee Town had beaten state-bred allowance runners, OPEN stakes company and just missed in an OPEN second level allowance.  Dropping off of close tries in stakes company she figured much the best.  The prohibitive favorite pressed to the turn then ran away at a very small price.

That gave me four winners on the first page of my selections and I thought I was bound for a big day!  Instead I went on a seven race skid - did have two seconds, one at a big 8/1 price.  Finally we arrived at the fifth at the Fair Grounds, a maiden claiming turf sprint.  I thought Milk Chocolate looked good on the drop.  She had just missed on the lead at Monmouth but I wrote in my analysis that from the outside draw if I were jockey Joe Bravo I'd let the #1 take the lead to the turn while waiting patiently mid-pack and then taking over.  Exactly what happened!

When I'd opened the xpressbet app to watch the race Milk Chocolate was being hammered in the win pool so I upped the bet to $10 and was rewarded for the decision :)  The two features that came next sealed the deal on a less-than-par results.  Heart To Heart looked like the lone speed in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf at Gulfstream.  But when he broke, from post six, he was quickly last.  Rated nicely in mid-pack, surged to the front in the stretch but faded to third as the even money favorite.  Rating is not his game, speed is and I knew right away I was in trouble.  Then in Aqueduct's Say Florida Sandy Stakes Gold For the King was biding his time on the rail to mid-turn, then was hemmed in.  No where to go into the lane he tried to split horses, but was squeezed and checked.  Rallied belatedly when diving to the inside for third, but it was too late.  Sigh.....

Sunday January 13
Today's card mirrored most of the rest of the week - hard to find anything to really hang your hat on.  I had five picks but one scratched.  In the second I liked Take Command in an entry level event for sophomores.  He'd run lights out in his debut here then was thrown to the wolves in the Florida Sire Stakes.  A similar story outlined Blue Steel who won his second start then nothing in his Grade 2 try.  But he'd not run well in his debut AND was running here for the first time where at least Take Command had experience locally.  He vied for command early, opened up into the lane then withstood the late charge of the 12/1 runner-up.

And the best part was he paid a nice $7.20 so I cashed for $36 and that made me a profitable winner for the day, my second winning day of the week, but with only 1-for-4 in the win averages department.

New Year's Week

January 1 - 6

New Year's Week

We kicked off the heart of the Championship Meet with a special six-day racing week.  This week Kim and I were fortunate enough to have my sister Laurie and our niece Khloe coming to visit AND our daughter Julie.  So I played the races online while balancing that with family time, then we all made a day of it Saturday at the track.

Tuesday January 1

The ten race program provided, what I thought were six betting opportunities.  After passing the opener in the second - a maiden claimer going seven furlongs - I thought that program favorite Sunny Sonata had many questions to answer IF you were looking at her and her alone.  But considering that the rivals lined up to challenge here were a combined 0-for-91 and that only two of those races earned Beyer figures that would be competitive with ANY of the top three figures earned by Sunny Sonata, she was a deserving favorite.  She broke sharply under leading rider Luis Saez and took the lead.  Although she was under some pressure the fractions were a tepid :23.3 and an even moderate :48.1 (some dozen lengths or more slower than "average").  Once they turned for home she cut the corner and accelerated home, drawing off with each and every stride.

The minimum play only resulted in a small payoff, but a winner is a winner and it's always good to start the racing week with a victory in the first betting race!  Mischief Maas was the pick in the third, and she was dropping in class from the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper where she was flying late to be second.  I thought she had enough pace to run at here but she was steadied early and came belatedly to be third at 9/5.  Aquaphobia was the 9/5 favorite in the fourth, going a mile on the turf.  Irad Ortiz looked to be cruising to challenge on the turn but when heads turned for home she had no punch and ran evenly to finish fourth.  My "best" of the day came in the seventh with Susie Bee on the turf.  She too was a belated late running third.  I was surprised that Circleofcompetence for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz showed nothing at 4/1, finishing eighth in the 8th race.  And I finished the day by backing a Todd Pletcher turf runner in a maiden claimer.  Mambo Dancer was a big 6/1 and was right there to the far turn before gradually backing up to finish sixth.

Wednesday January 2

We were up early to head to the airport to pick up our arriving family visitors.  The best "story" of the morning was that when Julie landed at 8:10 am we headed to luggage where the boards showed her luggage would come out on Carousel 6.  Within five minutes they announced that the flight's baggage would come out on Carousel 5 - we walked over and there was no movement, no luggage.  Waited, waited, and waited.  Finally after more than half an hour the light came on and it was obvious these bags were from a flight which had landed after Julie's.  Kim went to the "Lost Baggage" area and they had Julie's bag, saying it had "not been claimed!"  WHAT???!!!!!!

How appropriate was it then that the first bet of the day in the Wednesday opener was on a filly with the name, The Queen Jules!  The race was a five furlong sprint for non-winners of three lifetime.  While Queen Jules had run in conditioned company she was the only one dropping in price.  She was sent off as the 3/2 favorite and she sat patiently off the leaders to the far turn.  She seemed to have the momentum through the stretch but she wasn't accelerating by horses, but gradually grinding away.  The wire came and it was......PHOTO FINISH!  I was pretty sure that she had her nose down first, but it was far from definitive.

Pretty close, but a win's a win!  Didn't like anyone in the second or third and ran a distant sixth at a big 10/1 in the fourth.  Here's one of "those stories" that makes my racing adventures something I so enjoy!  Because we had visitors I had made all my bets earlier in the morning.  So as I sat watching the races and it was about ten minutes prior to post time of the fifth I just completely forgot that I'd done that.  And in the fifth it was my "best" of the day.  Zippy Willy was the clear favorite in this maiden claiming event going seven furlongs.  He'd run 2nd in two maiden special tries and now was being dropped to this $25K level by top trainer Todd Pletcher.  He had the top jockey in Luis Saez and his speed figures were standouts.  He'd be a short price and while you might be leery of taking the small payoff on a big class dropper, he looked even "better" because the only other class droppers had run 6th beaten 20+ lengths, 5th beaten 5 1/2 lengths in his TENTH career start and fifth beaten more than twenty lengths in Tampa.  Sent away as the 1/2 favorite he dueled with the third choice to the far turn and then was cut loose.  The half length lead extended to a full length, to three and to more than seven by the time he crossed the wire all alone.

And because I'd had the memory lapse my triple investment turned into a "BET of the Day" kind of investment and guaranteed a winning day for me!  Didn't like anyone in the following race and then I had an "oh my" experience for about a minute and a half.  In the 7th, a MSW for three-year-olds on the turf, I went with Todd Pletcher's Dance and Dance under John Velazquez.  Right to the front through the first turn, down the backside and through the far turn into the lane.....AT 35/1 ODDS!  OH MY!  But he faded to fifth, still it was a thrill as he led them so far and I was thinking about what kind of return I was about to get!  Didn't like anyone in the eighth but in the ninth, a starter allowance going a mile on the turf I liked the fact that Too Much Data was lightly raced.  But best of all I liked that she had a best of thirty-eight bullet work.  Listed at an inflated 8/1 in the program I thought I'd get a nice price.  She sat mid-pack to the far turn and then began to pick horses off one at a time.  She was fifth at the furlong marker but appeared to be hitting her best stride and as they hit the wire she surged to the front - look carefully below you can see the runner-up just inside!

And at a nice $9 payoff meaning I'd collect over $20 on my minimum play!  When I logged on to xpressbet.com to watch this replay we were minutes from post time for the finale.  I liked Collins Avenue.  Not because he had outstanding form or anything, but on December 5th False Info had been the prohibitive favorite for Todd Pletcher and he'd won for me.  But he'd had to overhaul Collins Avenue that day.  And that was significant not only because he gave a Pletcher runner a run for their money, but False Info had two races under his belt while Collins Ave was a first time starter that day.  I planned to play the minimum but when I logged on he was a very short-priced favorite, not only in the win pool but in all the multi-race payoffs.  So I upped the bet!  After breaking sharply he sat in fourth behind three embattled leaders.  Made his move three-wide on the turn and drew off as clearly the best!

The double-investment win capped a 4-for-6 day and a profit of nearly $40.  Now that's a nice day at the races :)

Anniversary Dinner at Sea Watch

Thursday January 3 - Happy Anniversary!
Today was Kim and my 32nd Wedding Anniversary.  Typically we "give each other" a trip or something we both can share together, but we couldn't come up with anything for this year that we agreed upon.  So I got her a card and an Amazon gift card.  It was one amazing year for sure that saw us travel to Miami, Tampa, and Orlando....take trips to Kansas, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, Washington, Oregon, Louisiana, Maryland, and New Jersey....and have adventures in the Bahamas, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Germany (twice), France, Switzerland, Great Britain, Scotland, Norway, Iceland, Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary!  WOW.

I had six bets on our big day.  In the opener I was a fading eighth as the tepid 5/2 favorite.  No bets for three in a row before I invested the minimum on Pass The Butter in the fifth, a non-winners of three lifetime going 6 1/2 furlongs.  I didn't like that last time he was plunged to this cheap level and was 4/5 with a clear lead before being caught.  BUT today he got Luis Saez and the move to the top rider would be a very big angle in it's own right, but in just a small sample of rides for this barn Saez had won an amazing 71% of the time.  Appears he only rides when there's a great chance of winning!  He was fourth behind horses to the top of the stretch before Saez ducked inside and 'Butter responded by blowing by to draw off to a widening score.

Didn't make a lot of money as the 9/5 favorite, but got back almost $15.....for a Jockey-Trainer combo winning at 71%, that's not bad I say!  In the sixth I thought Boranda would press the leader in a turf sprint and take over.  Instead he dueled into the lane, got clear and was caught in the shadow  of the wire.  In the 7th Guns of Steel was EVERYBODY'S top pick and was sent off at 3/5 in a one-turn mile.  I knew we were in trouble when the opening quarter was zipped in :23 flat by him and then the half mile in a way-too-fast :45 and change.  Faded late to finish fourth.  Passed the eighth and ran a disappointing eighth at 9/1 in the ninth after being up close to the far turn.  But leave it to Todd Pletcher to save the day!  In the 10th he sent out Ding Dong Ditch in a maiden claiming event on the turf under Luis Saez.  Comfortably stalking the leaders in fourth to the far turn he blew by to assume command and took off home free to the wire.

And the best part, he was a juicy 3/1 so with my double investment I cashed for an even $40 and finished a clear winner for the day!

Friday January 4
Only two bets today.  Both went off as short-priced favorites.....neither hit the board.  Sigh....

Saturday January 5
All five of us headed out to the track today for a full day of racing.  The weather was simply post-card perfect as it never got out of the upper 70's and the skies were nearly cloudless all day.  We arrived about fifteen minutes before post time and headed up to our seats.  Of course we had our photo taken to mark the occasion of a family day at the races.

In the opener  I first looked at the likely favorite, Song of Melody.  WOW - she looked vulnerable as her trainer was off to a 60/1-10-8 start!  Even with top rider Luis Saez up she was worth trying to beat!  But then as I looked at the alternatives, they were even less likely to win, so it was Song of Melody.  Sat just off the pace in fourth to the far turn then blew by and drew off like she was a Breeders' Cup champion to give trainer Antonio Sano just his second win of the meeting.

In the second I had the even money favorite and EVERYONE had followed my program pick of Final Jeopardy - more for the name than because I'd picked him or his credentials.  But he was quickly last out of the gate and was a belated third.  In the third race, a Maiden Special for three-year-olds I narrowed it down to two first time starters.  Turns out I had the second choice at 4/1 in Growth Engine and he surged to the front turning for home but then my second choice, the post-time favorite blew by to win handily while I was a best-of-the-rest second.

In the fourth I had a Todd Pletcher first-time starter in She Loves It.  As has happened sooooo many times at the meet I was away last but had dead aim on the leader turning for home, but never got by.  Second, again at 5/2 odds.  The fifth was the Ginger Brew Stakes and I liked Fortunate Girl to take down the late-running favorite.  Made a bid to second into the lane but the leader never gave way.  At least I was right about the favorite who was closing fast, but too late (2nd).  We had planned to eat lunch at this point so we headed over to our favorite restaurant at Gulfstream, the Yard House.  As we were ordering the sixth race came up.  I had a pick, but no bet.  Yes, of course my runner Lewis Vale WON and at a big 8/1 price.  Seriously?  WOW.  I had a double investment in the seventh, which was the Glitterwoman Stakes for three-year-old fillies.  Fancy Dress Party had won her debut at Keeneland then was a very close second in a small Tampa stake.  That her connections sent her here for a $100K stake, with several of those in the condition book in Tampa told me that they felt she had some ability.  And that top jockey Luis Saez signed on was another positive.  Took command right away and when challenged she drew off.  She may be the real deal!

Had my second winner and with my two best bets coming up in the 9th and 10th I thought I might be on my way to a big day.  Passed the eighth race as we finished lunch.  Then in the ninth, Henley's Joy saved ground into the turn as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.  Instead of riding the pocket jockey Tyler Gafflione swung some six or seven wide losing valuable ground.  That cost him the race as we was second beaten a neck behind Casa Creed who was 12/1.  That's significant because in my analysis I said, "....one for four with three losses by more than 35 combined lengths but Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott enters him in a stakes with John Velasquez, maybe we'd better pay attention!...."  Wish I'd taken my own advice.  In the tenth, the Mucho Macho Man for Derby hopefuls my pick Code of Honor was a miniscule 1/5 off a second in the Grade 1 Champagne.  Hall of Fame trainer was interviewed prior to the race and said they HOPED he was good enough to be considered for the spring big races.  Never really threatened in fourth.  And with that we headed home to get ready for the hockey game (which the Panthers lost in overtime!).  Still, it was a gorgeous day and we enjoyed being at Gulfstream for the afternoon.

Sunday January 6
Had four picks from the eleven races, and one scratched.  After passing the first four I was FLYING as the 8/5 favorite in the fifth - 2nd.  In the sixth I had Angelina for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez.  Rated to the stretch, edged to the front then was no match for the 3/2 favorite, second again.  And in the 10th I was a fading 7th as the 6/5 favorite.  So with the exception of the two middle days of the week it was not a noteworthy week of handicapping.  But, we're back at it next week and I will be out here for another big day of action from not only Gulfstream but around the country!

Tropical Derby Week

December 26 - 30:  Tropical Derby Week

It was "Longshot Week" at Gulfstream where the favorites REALLY struggled to get home in front, and since most of my selections tend to be one of the top three choices, it meant I had several misses to "go figure" kind of horses.

Wednesday December 26:  Opening Day at Santa Anita

I was excited to not only have picks at Gulfstream but to play the stakes-laden card at Santa Anita.  At Gulfstream it was a pretty mediocre card and I only had four selections.  I had two seconds, a third, and a fourth....that one coming with a prohibitive 1/5 favorite.  Typical for the day in Hallandale as the parade of longshots were virtually non-stop.

At Santa Anita I felt pretty good about at least three of my selections.  But I was 2nd in the first of the stakes at even money, then a Bob Baffert 2yo, Scalper went off as a short-priced 6/5 favorite and missed the break....weakened to be sixth.  The Grade 1 La Brea featured unbeaten filly Dream Tree, also from the Bob Baffert barn.  She was 3/5 and showed little, ninth if you can believe it.  I was up in the air on several contenders in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile but DRF analyst Brad Free - the only public handicapper left that can change my opinion made River Boyne his BEST BET.  That sealed it and I tripled the bet.  Came flying late to be up in time!

In the Grade 1 Malibu for 3yo I knew it would be one of the Bob Baffert 3yo, either likely heavy favorite McKinzie or Ax Man.  Ax Man had shown great potential and figured to be a nice price.  Can't tell you how many times I've seen Baffert have two, especially in stakes, and the big price upsets the other which is typically the favorite.  Not today as Ax Man faded to 11th while McKinzie rolled up super impressive.

Thursday December 27

Another ho-hum card at Gulfstream and I had just five picks.  But the ones I had I mostly really liked.  Only one came home to win while I had not one, not two, but three second place finishes.  The one I did have was in the second a claiming event for turf sprinters.  Jorge Navarro's Dance Proudly looked best on paper and he was easily best.

While it wasn't quite as big a "longshot day" still there were four BIG price winners that paid whopping prices:  $101.20 in the 4th (yes, for a $2 bet), $29.40 in the 5th, $21.20 in the 6th - keying a big Pick-3 payout of $10,600 for a mere $0.50 bet!  And the ninth had a $62.40 winner.

Friday December 28
I spent a good part of the day handicapping and again had only four selections that I played on the card - two of them for the minimum.  I was a non-threatening fifth with the first bet of the day then was 2nd at 3/5 in the fifth.  4th at 2/1 in the sixth - can a fella buy a winner?  Then in the 8th, my last live bet of the day I planned to double the bet on Chad Brown's Icespire.  But she was drawing a lot of money and I just had "that feeling."  Doubled my own bet to make it prime time and she rolled home to key a $50 payoff and seal a winning day despite going just 1-for-4!

Three more big-priced winners came home.  $23 for the opener and $24 in the 2nd to key a nearly $200 daily double; and in the finale the winner paid $51.20.

Saturday December 29:  Tropical Park Derby Day
I had a dilemma.  Actually I had a double-dilemma.  First, I had to make my return to Jenny Craig to get weight back on track this week and I could only get in this morning at 10:20.  IF I hurried home I could make it to the races in time for the opener, but it would be close.  And even bigger was the fact that today was a BIG college football bowl game day.  My Florida Gators were on at noon and then at 4 pm was the first of the two national semi-final games.  My plan was to go and stay for the featured Derby and then come home to watch the second half of that first semi-final, skip the hockey game and watch the second semi-final on TV.  I would tape the Gator game and if they won I'd watch it tomorrow.  But when I got to Jenny Craig I was 20 minutes late even getting in and I knew I'd be lucky if I rushed to get to Gulfstream for the third.  Took it as a sign and changed gears.....played all the races at home while watching college football.  I was glad I got to see my Gators steamroll Michigan 41-15 and ensure a top-5 position in the final poll I think.  From a racing standpoint I had a good "numbers" day as I won my typical 35% and again my wins equaled my 2nd and 3rd place finishes combined (8 - 8) so that I was 1-2-3 in sixteen of twenty-three picks.  But the story of the day was that my winners, with two notable exceptions were prohibitive favorites AND both of my best bets didn't win.  Right off the bat I was 2nd at 3/1 then 4th at 3/1 and then in the Aqueduct opener Midnight Entree was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite....second.  Laurel had six stakes today and in the first of these my choice, Win Win Win was the even money favorite - 2nd, again.  Sigh......  Finally got on the board when Mystery Witness won a Maiden Claiming sprint at Gulfstream in their third for trainer Jorge Navarro.

But the 1-2 payoff only got me a little more than $20 despite a triple investment.  Still, I'm finally on the board.  The Fair Grounds also had several stakes today but the weather there was miserable so I didn't have any action in their schedule turf events until late in the card when I found two runners I thought could run on the sloppy main track.  The first stakes event in New Orleans was the Louisiana Futurity for two-year-old colts and Classy John was 3/5 in the program.  Looked every bit the part as all three of his career Beyers would beat all the figures earned by the rest of the field.  He was 1/9 at post time and ran away as much the best.  Didn't make any money, but padded the win stats with a second consecutive victory.

I - and hottie analyst Acacia Courtney - was surprised that track record holder Pay Any Price was NOT the favorite in the Janus Stakes going five furlongs on the turf in Gulfstream's fourth.  But the crowd had it right as he was dueled into a fading third finish.  Back-to-back third place finishes, first at Laurel and then at Gulfstream preceded a win at Aqueduct when Alisio who was even money in the program and much the best as the 2/5 off-time chalk.

I had two price plays at 5/1 and 6/1 at Laurel and Gulfstream and they ran to their odds (6th and 4th).  The East View Stakes for two-year-olds at Aqueduct was next on my sheet.  I thought it was pretty wide open but one of my favorite angles in handicapping is a bullet work; a fast bullet work is even better and that was the case when Espresso Shot posted a :59.4 five furlong move for this event.  He sat off the pace to the far turn then swept by to win.

The $6.80 payoff, with my double investment led to a payoff of nearly $35.  Fourth place finishes with back-to-back even money favorites followed.  The second of which was my BEST BET at Gulfstream, a Todd Pletcher first time starter who has a $300K sales grad with John Velazquez on board.  A poor break and then a burst to get to third at the demanding distance of seven furlongs was too much to overcome.  I thought I had the winner in Gulfstream's Tropical Park Oaks when Andina Del Sur sat the perfect trip behind a 10/1 front runner, but she was just a nose shy on the wire.  At Aqueduct I had a pick in their next stakes, the Alex M. Robb going nine furlongs on the main track.  I thought Mr. Buff had a good chance to wire the field.  He had pressure, got loose and then dug in through the final 100 yards to hang on.

Could have made more money with the fair $7.40 payoff, but I wasn't that confident and so I only had the minimum invested.  Next was the Politely from Laurel and Crabcakes was 9-for-15 overall and a superb 7-for-9 at Laurel....at today's three-quarters of a mile she was 6-for-9.  Sent off at 3/5 she was much the best on paper.  But that's why they run the races because she just didn't fire finishing eight.  Huge disappointment as my BET of the Day.  In Gulfstream's 9th Holy Helena was the 7/5 favorite and she too could not quite get to the winner on the wire, second.  With the weather at the Fair Grounds iffy at best the Woodchopper scheduled for the turf was a "no play" for me unless it was run on the main track.  There I thought Mark Casse's Noble Commander could run back to his 3yo promise and upset the field.  He was 12/1 as they went into the gate and he coasted wire to wire on the front end.  I thought I was cashing for more than $60 and then the final odds flashed up at 7/1.  Not complaining about the $16.80 payoff, but......

Missed in the finale of the day, another off-the-turf in New Orleans where my pick, the 7/5 chalk was fourth.  It was ironic on the day that I was going to play just the stakes-laden Laurel and Gulfstream cards, but decided late in the week that I might as well play Aqueduct and the Fair Grounds.  At Gulfstream I was 2-for-10.  I was 0-for at Laurel.  But at Aqueduct I was 3-for-4 and at the Fair Grounds, even with the sloppy track I went 3-for-4 as well!  So all told I was 8-for-23 (35%) but couldn't make any money.

Sunday December 30
Only four picks at Gulfstream and I had one second.  Ironically in that race it was the only short-priced favorite of the day to win, and one of the few for the week.  I had a Todd Pletcher horse at a nice 9/2 price and couldn't get the photo in my favor.

Next week is a special 6-day racing schedule with a special New Year's Day card on Tuesday.