March 19 - 23
It was much of the same for the Louisiana Derby week for this handicapper as through the non-stakes days I had very few selections and thus very few winners. On the big day in New Orleans I'd characterize the day as "mixed results." On the downside, I didn't quite hit my average, ended on a bit of a slide, and lost money. On the upside I hit four stakes at the Fair Grounds including the BET of the Day. And I was generally entertained for over six hours! The week started out with a nine race card and I could only find two selections worth betting on. Everyone liked Hollywood Mayhem in a claiming sprint over the Tapeta in Race 3 and he delivered at 3/5 odds. Ran third at 5/2 in the other race I bet on.
Both Thursday and Frida saw me cash one ticket. On the Thursday program I could again only find two races where I felt I had enough of an edge to bet. Ran 2nd at 6/5 with the first one but in the day's finale Hot Blooded rolled to a nice win at 3/1 odds to give me a winning day. Friday I had more selections I felt were worth betting - four in total. Upped the bet on odds-on World Traveler to score, but had two seconds - both at nice prices (5/2 and 5/1) and an off the board finish.
While playing at the Sunrise Simulcast Center - which I decided to do after I'd handicapped the Gulfstream card and found it mediocre at best - I had races from 12:45 until 7 pm. I was off the board with the first two selections but in the second at Turfway, Whipporwill went wire to wire to give me my first win.
Missed in the next three before it was time for the fourth at the Fair Grounds. The race was NOT one of their big stakes events, but it was one of the on-track analysts' BEST of the Day as he liked St. Armand's Key to come back off an entry level allowance win to score in this second level event. When he took a lot of money I upped the bet from a minimum wager to a double investment. Tracked in fourth to the top of the lane, swung some 4-5 wide under Irad Ortiz and opened up on the field. In the final 100 yards he was drifting out while a late runner came in and they bumped substantially. Held on for a win by a head but immediately the OBJECTION sign went up. Typically when the stewards review objections they either decide relatively quickly or the INQUIRY sign goes up. But here neither happened as they took a long, LONG look at the finish from multiple angles. Fortunately for me they let the win stand, whew!
I went on a nice tear following that with three stakes wins from my next five bets. After missing at Gulfstream I got the first added money winner of the day at the Fair Grounds in the Crescent City Oaks. Over the winter two sophomore state-bred fillies have been heads and shoulders above the others and they've traded decisions with Secret Faith winning the most recent but Blue Fire handing 'Faith her only career loss two back in a photo finish following a thrilling stretch duel. I noted that Secret Faith was cross-entered to run in the open, Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks and in my analysis said that if she did go there, Blue Fire would be a "prime time" play for me. In a bad move, I think, the connections did send Secret Faith there, where she didn't hit the board, and I was ready to really up the ante on Blue Fire until I noted there was another filly taking a lot of money AND she was the favorite in one of the multi-race will pays. I debated about following my original plan or not and in the end went part-way with a triple bet. Should have gone all the way as Blue Fire easily made the lead and led them on a merry chase to a handy and decisive score. Missed in a Turfway allowance before they went into the gate for the five and a half furlong turf sprint of the Costa Rising Stakes. There was no question in my mind that Geaux Sugar would be leading into the far turn. But, with several other front runners and the very long Fair Grounds stretch I wasn't all the way sure he'd last. Much like Blue Fire, I should have gone with my initial hunch to bet more. Right to the front and never threatened with my minimum wager on board. And I topped the trifecta of wins when Dana's Beauty proved much the best defending her title in Turfway's Latonia Stakes.
Missed the next three before adding back-to-back stakes winner to the pile of winners. In Turfway's Rushaway Stakes I liked Banks to win. The first clue for figuring this 3yo stakes was that half the field of eight were still maidens - TOSS! He'd won twice and was exiting a fourth in the prep for the big 3yo race, the Gr 3 Jeff Ruby, last time out. Toward the back into the far turn when suddenly he rocketed past rivals while wide through the turn and into the lane. Cleared the field, leveled off and coasted home at a nice 2/1 price. In the Tom Benson Stakes on the turf at the Fair Grounds I liked Way To Be Marie. She was no better, no worse that the rest of the field, but prior to her last she'd run numbers that I thought would win. The key, I thought was jockey Florent Geroux being more patient and rallying late. Did just that sitting patiently behind five runners who not only fanned across the track turning for home but the all fanned three or more paths off the rail allowing 'Marie to shoot through and draw off - also at a generous 2/1 price. Following four stakes misses - one at even money and one at 1/5 (where I SHOULD have known better) I got my lone win at Gulfstream when I tripled the bet on Runnin' Rocket in a synthetic claiming race. Came flying down the middle of the Tapeta to win at even money.
THE big race of the day and the BET of the Day was next in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks where unbeaten and current Kentucky Oaks favorite Good Cheer was running. The only way she would lose, I thought was if either (a) she wasn't all in after having earned enough points last time in the Gr 2 Rachel Alexandra to get into the Ky Oaks or (b) just didn't fire. Neither were the case. Sat patiently in fourth into the far turn while wide and in the clear. Set sail around the three rivals and lengthened stride to draw off as much the best, sealing her spot as the odds-on choice to win the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May.
Missed on the last four which cost me the profitable bottom line and then lost the only two races I had bets in on Sunday.
Louisiana Derby Day Highlights
Next week is "Closing Week" of the winter season for me, and certainly the highlight of the winter racing season will be on Saturday when ten of us will be at the Florida Derby with seats right on the finish line!
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