January 19 - 23

Sunshine Millions - Part 2 / Road To The Derby Weekend 

The five day racing week saw a lot, A LOT of the races either carded or moved to the synthetic surface so I have to say I was very pleased with my final win percentages and how the week went.  On the Wednesday card it took until the day's sixth race for me to get the first winner of the week.  Race Day was my top choice in this entry level allowance going seven furlongs.  What I thought was most interesting was that the DRF analyst Mike Welsch made the 2/1 program favorite his BEST Bet of the day in spite of the fact that the horse was moving from a 21% barn to a trainer that was only 4-for-48 and today's jockey was a mere 5-for-88.  Meanwhile hottie jockey/model Chantal Sutherland was on board my pick who had three wins at the demanding trip with two of them showing a turn back from the previous start....just like today.  Chantal kept clear four wide down the backstretch, glided up five wide into the stretch and moved to the front.  Driving to the wire with enough to hold off the closers at a very nice $7.60 price and I cashed for almost forty bucks.

Hottie Chantal Gets The Win

After finishing 2nd at 7/5 in the 7th I had mixed feelings in the eighth about a Wesley Ward turf sprinter.  Lucci had only been out twice.  Like so many Ward 2yo he'd blasted out of the gate and run away in a front-running fashion last spring in his debut.  Then shipped "across the pond" to run at Royal Ascot where he took the lead in a FIFTEEN horse field before weakening late and finishing just a length behind the winner.  Now on the comeback from a vacation he was well bet.  30% on returning runners like this, Ward was also 30% taking the blinkers off like today.  Tyler G had the mount from the open air outside box which looked to make for a clean trip.  Burst out of the gate and quickly was clear under a hand ride.  A rival was coming to him on the turn but Gaffalione didn't move a muscle, even when that rival was nearly on even terms turning for home.  Let out a notch and Lucci quickly spurted clear.  Because of the comments of the analysts and the heavy wagering action I'd upped the bet to a triple investment on my second winner on the day!

Another interesting story from Wednesday.....if you follow me on any social media or through my racing journals you know how much we like to travel.  Well, Kim and I are booked on the brand new Viking Expeditions "Antarctic Explorer" for this coming November.  Can't tell you how excited I am to explore the "bottom of the world!"  So this week on the Viking TV web channel they did a whole week on this itinerary and today they had a preview video followed by a Q&A with the resident expert.  I submitted a question and if you watch the video you'll see his reaction to the question - the ONLY time over a 90 minute span that he appeared to be stumped and had to contemplate his answer!

Interestingly, that afternoon our son Brad called and I told him about this video.  He was on his way to pick up his son and about a half hour later Brad called back because our grandson was excited to tell us something.  It was that TODAY in class they'd studied.......ANTARCTICA!  And he went on and on about what he learned.  Then he told us he'd drawn a picture for us:

You'll note - because he explained this to us - that we're standing on ice....there are a lot of penguins, because they'd talked about those in class, and most importantly he pointed out how he'd put us in "warm clothes" because, "you know Grandpa, it's cold there!"

Thursday I passed on the first two races and in the third I liked Fabricate to take this nw2L sprint.  I thought the filly looked much the best on paper, and especially on Beyer speed figures.  But....she was just 1-for-12 in her career and had been way over her head.  So, having made speed figures I know that it's not always reliable to judge the figures of also-ran finishers.  AND you had to wonder about the filly's state of mind having always faced much better.  So I only went in for the minimum.  Pressed along the rail under confident handling to the top of the stretch, glided into the clear and was LONG GONE.  Only cashed for $7.50, but hey, a winner's a winner!

Passed another race and ran 4th before we came to the sixth which was a maiden special going two turns on the all-weather Tapeta track.  Usually reliable top national trainer Chad Brown had been off to a two-for-seventeen start to the meet before last weekend when he had two winners.  One was ridden by Tyler G who was on Credit Event today.  The 3yo Klaravich runner was making his debut today and in this field I thought he looked best.  Was willing to gamble the barn is starting to heat up so I doubled the bet.  Tracked the leaders in fourth behind the battling trio to the far turn.  Moved three wide to the front and drew off as my second winner on the day!

Friday, in the opener I'm convinced that a big reason I had the winner in Golden Aisle is because I've been following So Fla racing for so long.  For many years, especially at old Calder Race Course, owner Frank Calabrese would plunge his runners in claiming price to get the win, have them claimed and go get another runner.  One of his trainers for a while was current leading trainer at GP, Saffie Joseph.  Now, having experienced and seen this countless times from Joseph, the fact that Golden Aisle was plunging from MSW company all the way to the bottom in this $12.5K synthetic sprint did not concern me.  I doubled the bet.  Broke slowly, but jockey Luis Saez hustled him to the front where he was clear and looked long gone.  But the slow start had taken a bit of a toll and in deep stretch they were coming, but as Calder announcer Phil Saltzman used to say, "they're not gonna get him today!" and he held on for the score as I cashed for over $20 on my first pick on the Friday card.

Missed in the third when 2nd at 7/2; had a pass a scratch and then Dubrovnik - which I liked as much on his form as the fact that his name reminded me of when Kim and I walked atop the ancient walls of that Croatian city in in 2019!

Another pass before my "best" of the day in today's 8th, a non-winners of two sprint.  Big Daddy Dave had returned from a FOURTEEN month layoff to run in a state-bred, entry level allowance last November.  He was a best-of-the-rest second behind a runner who came right back to score in an OPEN entry level allowance and run HIS record to 3-for-3.  The drop into this conditioned spot made 'Dave look awfully formidable.  Burst from the gate, quickly was daylight clear and never looked back.  That he paid $3.20 was amazing in my opinion.  Cashed for nearly $25 on my triple bet!

Saturday January 22

The big day - Saturday where Keith and I went out for a full day of LIVE racing!  I had picks in eight of the eleven live races, but I'd also analyzed the cards from Aqueduct, Tampa, Laurel, and the big "Road To The Derby" day card at the Fair Grounds.  The first post was at noon at Gulfstream and I was disappointed to find out when Acacia Courtney and her partners went through the card prior to the start of the racing day that all the races on the turf had been taken off due to some rain last night, and now would be run on the all-weather surface.  This was particularly disturbing because the two stakes events today were the Sunshine Millions Turf and the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf.  Grrrrrr.  In a very unusual situation, the opener at Gulfstream was my "best" of the day locally.  Not only unusual because it was the opener, but also because it was a cheap $16K maiden claiming event - and like SO many races, to be run on the new synthetic surface which I must admit I don't have a great deal of confidence in my selections there.  But Savage Sailor looked awfully formidable in this mile-70 race.  He'd not shown much in his first three, all against MSW company.  But in his last, off a nearly three month break he'd been steadied on the first turn but still finished with a rush to be second less than a length behind the winner.  AND that was for $25K.  Dropping down, with a clean trip he looked like a winner to me.  Sat mid-pack through the far turn, got into the clear at the top of the lane and began to run down the leaders.  I was briefly concerned as he wasn't "gobbling up ground," but in the final 16th he accelerated to pull away by daylight.  I sent my winning photo to my "gal pal" Acacia Courtney who'd posted her pics and she "liked" my message.

I've got the WINNER in the opener!

In the second at GP, the next race on my selection sheet, there was very little to choose from.  A maiden claiming sprint going five furlongs on the Tapeta.  As I noted in my analysis and on my video (below), if you looked just at Awesome Family in the program you'd quickly say, "Uh, NO."  But then, as I always say, it's all about the match-up!  To his inside, the four runners were a combined 0-for-60.  Oh my - toss those guys.  To his outside those three had been beaten a combined 40+ lengths in their last start.  Toss THOSE guys.  Now add in that three who finished behind 'Family last time had come back to win and he looks "best of the bad" runners in here.  Right to the front, was clear into the lane....was challenged but fought them off and I was 2-for-2!

The next selection came from Maryland where Parx shipper Dilly Dilly Philly was my choice.  The Laurel race was a starter allowance for runners who'd been in for $5K.  Three back 'Philly had crushed $5K claimers.  Two back she'd drilled $10K claimers.  Then last time out in a $10K Starter (remember this is a $5K Starter) she got cooked in a speed duel early.  For half the price I thought she looked easily best if taking to the Laurel track.  Pressed the 4/1 leader into the lane and then took over to win going away as the 7/5 favorite and I was 3-for-3 to start the day.  Over the next two and a half hours I was able to only cash one of twelve tickets.  Oh my.  Kept telling myself, (a) stick with it, (b) already had three wins, it always evens out, and (c) patience - the wins WILL come.  Fortunately, the one winner had been in a Fair Grounds 3yo allowance where I took a Todd Pletcher last-out maiden winner, Pioneer of Medina.  And he'd gone wire to wire at a big 7/1 price!  Oh how I wish I'd had more than the minimum on him!  Finally I put together another string of wins.  The sixth at Aqueduct I KNEW would be a good story if I were right.  South Sea had gone a meager 2-for-22 since 2019, ouch.  But how many times have we seen a horse change barns and suddenly they wake up and revert to their previous form.  Well, today South Sea was starting for a new outfit that was winning at a good 21% clip overall and showed a 31% winning rate on first-off-the-claim runners.  Also, today's race was a six furlong dirt sprint and over the last seven straight he'd been on the turf.  That in and of itself was curious because seven of his career eight wins had been on the dirt!  Breaking from the rail he was away cleanly and pressed the leader while holding the inside position.  Once they turned for home the rider asked and he exploded to draw off by nearly a pole, and at a generous 2/1 allowing me to score a $30+ profit on my double bet.  Next came the seventh at Gulfstream, an entry level allowance.  My top choice had been Gingrich - who was Acacia Courtney's BEST Bet of the day.  But that one scratched.  In my analysis I'd noted, "....either Gingrich or Credibility should go favored and one of them will win...."  So when I got the scratches early in the day I penciled in Credibility for the bet.  As Keith and I were watching the South Sea race he remarked that I had several typos on my sheet and that I'd mis-marked Credibility as the #4 when he was in fact the #6.  I pulled up my Xpressbet app and got the race and he was right, Credibility WAS the #6.  I watched the payouts come up on the screen for South Sea and then went into the grandstands to watch the live GP race.  As they were approaching the gate I thought, hey, wait.....and pulled out my ticket.  UH OH, I'd bet on the #4!  Raced down to the teller window and got the bet in moments before the final horse went into the gate.  I kept thinking, "the #4 better NOT win" since I'd had the ticket on him!  At the top of the lane Credibility was slowly making up ground but was running out of time....closing, closing.....SOOOO close, but I was pretty sure he'd won....

And he did!  My third at Gulfstream :)  Right back in the seventh at Laurel in another starter allowance.  I found it interesting none of the public handicappers had Marvella Nasty on top, or in their top three.  But to me she looked easily best.  That's the great thing about the track, everybody has an opinion and wait twenty minutes and we'll see who's right!  Pressed to the top of the lane and then took off as much, MUCH the best as the 3/5 favorite....can't usually fool the crowd!  Missed on four in a row before I got another score, again out of town, and like Credibility, it was with an adjustment pick.  The seventh at the Fair Grounds was a 3yo maiden event.  I wrote in my analysis that Hazy Command was hard to look past, but I was going for a price.  My top choice scratched and so I reverted to 'Command.  Into the long Fair Grounds stretch the sophomore, who'd finished a strong closing 2nd last time out, was gaining with every stride, but it was going to be oh-so-close.....PHOTO finish.  Honestly thought, even after the replays that I probably lost, but no, he was a winner at 6/5 and I cashed for almost $25.  Then came the race that changed the day and the week.  It was the first of the six stakes at the Fair Grounds, the DF Kenner - a five and a half furlong turf sprint.  Just Might, who was #5 today, looked so good to me.  In his last seven starts he had SIX listed stakes wins and ran off the board in a Grade 2.  Half were on the dirt and half were on the turf.  Went off at even money, was quickly clear of the field and drew off to win by a pole.  I was watching the race on my phone and as he jogged back towards the winner's circle I closed the video and went upstairs to film my recap and took a photo of the winning ticket.  Sat back down and opened the video to see the payouts and instead saw this and you'll note that in the official order of finish there is NO #5!:

I didn't see a replay until I got home and ran back the TVG broadcast of the day.  And while I will admit I've seen lesser "infractions" result in a DQ, I've also see a lot, A LOT worse - in the stretch - result in no change.  If you watch the replay of the race, Just Might is in the five path and gradually is coming over.  For about a 16th of a mile he is in the 3-path while very gradually moving more to the inside.  While - in my opinion - STILL IN THE 3-PATH - the #2 horse inside of him feels like he's going to be in tight and the rider jerks him back.  The horse over-reacts and lunges to the inside, forcing the #1 horse literally into the rail.  It probably shouldn't matter, but Just Might won by a pole, under wraps.  He CLEARLY was the best horse and you could make the argument that he did NOT cause the issue.  But he was taken down.  That cost me $32.50.  For the day I finished with a loss of  $13.00  Sigh... and as if that isn't bad enough, for THE WEEK I finished behind $16.50.  Even when this kind of thing happens, you gotta love racing.  As they used to say on ABC's Wide World of Sports - "the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!"  Next up was the tenth at Laurel and to be fair, when I scanned the past performances I didn't see anything that I liked.  But, and I've said this often.....when you are handicapping, it's like a tool box and you have to be willing to use ALL the tools in the box to find the one that might lead to a winner.  So regardless of how I feel about who ever is the analyst(s) picking the race, I always read their comments.  So having looked at this maiden claiming event for 3yo and not finding anything, I turned to the DRF analyst, Dan Illman who often times has some insightful thoughts.  He uses the DRF Formulator program which allows you to filter out all kinds of variables - way too many if you ask me - and his comment in here was that trainer John Robb (who was winning at a 27% overall at the meet) had won with six of his last ten three-year-olds adding Lasix which was the case with Majestic Frontier today.  As the field of six hit the far turn they were fanned five across the track with Majestic Frontier waiting behind the line of front runners.  Patiently holding his spot on the rail jockey Xavier Perez sat and sat until they turned for home and the rail opened.  He asked for run and the response was immediate as 'Frontier went from a couple lengths behind to five in front and won going away.  The 2/1 price was generous IF you'd read Illman's comments.....wished afterwards I'd at least gone double the investment.  My last "live" winner came in the Tampa finale where first time starter Salimah was debuting for trainer Chad Brown.  Again.....since I play the races often from Tampa in the winter I've seen many a turf runner make their debut at Tampa and win for this top outfit, then go on to big things.  Why he doesn't start them here at Gulfstream with most of his others I don't know, but what I DO know is if it's a Brown maiden on the turf at Tampa, look carefully.  Salimah sat near the back until they began to approach the far turn.  Began easily picking off runners, was four wide as he gained positions around the turn, then was fanned at least 6-or-7 wide turning for home.  Once straightened out he accelerated and inhaled the field for fun.  Cashed for almost $25.  As we left I had four stakes races at the Fair Grounds to watch on replay later in the evening.  Was disappointed when I finished off the board in the first three, but it was all made up in the BEST BET of the Day, in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes.  It was billed as the "showdown" between two millionaires who had run in top 3yo races last year - Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon.  I looked at the past performances and it wasn't much of a "showdown" in my opinion.  Mandaloun had won five of eight starts including an elevated to victory score in the Grade 1 $1 Million Haskell Invitational.  And he had a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby - which is still being litigated in court due to the positive test, purportedly for Bob Baffert winner, Medina Spirit.  Compare that to Midnight Bourbon who'd won on 2-of-13 with NINE finishes in second or third, one of which came in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs in November when it was supposed to be a "showdown" and he was drilled by Maxfield.  To 'Bourbon's credit, when Mandaloun came to him at the top of the lane they went at it head up and head down to the final 100 yards before Mandaloun edged to the front.  But in front he was and I had my eleventh winner on the day with the BEST BET of the Day!

And so we came to Sunday where we were off the turf again despite the sunny skies.  For the day I profited and had a 40% win rate.  I start with this comment because heading into the first race I thought that Wesley Ward's Six Feet Under held a decisive edge over the rest of the Maiden Optional Claiming rivals.  And in the pre-race analysis airing on the Gulfstream livestream, the one analyst made the comment - common among so-called "value players" - that he couldn't bet Six Feet Under as the favorite.  I get it if you play that way....but to me, there's a distinct difference between playing the winner and playing for price alone.  I too won't bet a short-priced favorite, IF he's not the most likely winner!  And not that I'm the greatest handicapper of all time or have made millions betting the ponies, but my statistics show that if I like the favorite, he stands a very good chance of winning.  And so I doubled the bet on the Ward runner who went right to the front and as Announcer Pete says often, "that's EEEEEAASSSSY Money!"  Collected $17 for the investment and considering that I profited $12 on the day, had I gone with a "value play" I'd have not only lost the race, but lost for the day!

Missed with the next, then passed two races.  That brought us to the fifth race and the "story of the day" in my opinion.  This was a non-winners of three lifetime race going a mile-70 on the Tapeta all-weather track.  On paper, Bill Mott's Kissing Frogs looked much the best.  But one thing that IS true at this point, no one - and I mean no one, including me - is as good at handicapping on the Tapeta as on the turf and the dirt.  There are several kinds of synthetic tracks and most running on this one have never been on ANY synthetic track, and several have never been on this one if they've run on an all-weather before.  So you have to look for subtle clues.  And here was my take......a couple weeks ago the GP analysts had remarked about how well trainer David Fawkes' horses were doing on the new surface.  They were winning between 33 and 40 percent of the time.  He obviously has figured SOMETHING out for getting his horses ready to run on this surface.  And in here, he sent out Riving Spirt who was 9/2 in the program.  Mott's numbers, 0-for-12.  And you're going to take that, at a short price?  See, THAT to me is "value" play.  Riveting Spirit immediately was in prime position just off the leader's flank while it was obvious to me that the jockey was sitting on a ton of horse.  Into the lane he let him go and he ran away to score by daylight while 'Frogs came closing belatedly for second.  The double digit payoff netted me another $25 - should have upped the bet, sigh.... - and I went out a winner for the week.

Again, had I cashed on the Just Might score in the Kenner I'd have profited for the week.  But I learned a long time ago that playing this game is more, for me, about PLAYING THE GAME and being right rather than trying to make the hobby a money-maker.  With over 27,000 races in my data bank of records I've nearly broken even over 13 years - and if you'd taken that money to the mall or to go out to eat you'd have "lost" all of it!  :)  So I was very happy to total up the week and find my numbers looked like this:

So, SO very excited that this coming Saturday is Pegasus World Cup Day with seven big stakes.  The entire world of racing - literally fans from all over the world - will be watching with millions wishing they were at the Pegasus; and I will be, sitting in the stands right near the finish line!  WHOOO HOOO!

January 19-23 Racing Highlights

Social Media

This week saw me in contact with a lot of my social media friends :)  It started Monday when "my girl" Lauren Pastrana was on the CBS-4 news desk and sporting a bright yellow outfit which caught my eye because it was such a gorgeous, sunny day today.  Reached out to her and got a reaction.

Then on Tuesday my favorite new Mom, Kimmy posted an adorable picture of her and her daughter Livvy.....

Wednesday I reached out to my "new friend," Jayce Birch from the Channel 10 morning news who apparently posts pictures of her outfits on an almost daily basis.

As I watched the handicapping show to kick off the week on Wednesday I reached out to my "gal pal" Acacia Coutney with a pic of my watching her on TV which she liked.

I exchanged comments with former student Jen Greb when she posted a picture of her home, which looked like a post card at Christmas.  The end result was her telling me I'd always be welcome to visit, which I would probably enjoy very much.

Another reaction to Jayce's outfit on Thursday led to us having a "conversation."  :)

The CBS-4 team was welcoming a new guy to the morning broadcasts and staring a new streaming service, so I reached out to my pal Lauren.....

Friday another of my former students, this one (Christina) was from Cypress Bay days.  We exchanged greetings.

Friday night the Panthers were playing in Vancouver and the game didn't end until 2 am!  Yes I was up and I exchanged tweets with broadcaster Katie Gaus.

On Saturday at the track I reached out to hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney when we shared the same pick in the opener.

Another exchange with fashion girl Jayce and a series of photos of her outfits.

On Sunday it was announced Acacia would join three other female handicappers in hosting the Eclipse Awards next week so I reached out in congratulations to her.

Finally on Sunday I got a reply from Jayce regarding her most recent picture.  So cute.