Gulfstream 2025-26: Week 10

 Holy Bull Week

For many different reasons it was a very good week.  From a racing perspective I had an outstanding day at the track on Saturday.  And during the week I had a lot of interaction with my social media pals which always makes for a good week.  And the highlight, from my social life, was getting together with my long time most favorite former Western High student, Amanda.  The big news, all week long was the weather.  The country had been absolutely blasted last week by a gigantic snow storm and cold front which brought cooler temps here.  But Saturday another arctic blast rolled through and this one got all the way to us dropping the ACTUAL temperatures into the mid-30's and the feels-like into the mid-20's.  And before you ask, YES I did jump in the pool on that arctic Sunday morning.....mostly just because I wanted to be able to say I did.  Nearly the moment I dropped beneath the water level the thought ran through my head "this probably is NOT a good idea!"  Quickly one more drop down and out I went.  But I DID the "arctic plunge."  The racing began on Thursday where temperatures were in the mid-70's during the afternoon and from the ten races on the Thursday card I had three selections.  In the first four races I did mention a horse in three of them, but none offered any kind of betting angle I was happy with.  Finally in R5, a $12.5K claiming sprint I found a horse I liked.  Proud American was stepping up in class, but what drew my attention is that he had been claimed from his last by trainer Carlos David who's scored with a third of his nearly 50 claims in their first start.  Sent off as the 4/5 choice he pressed the 5/1 front runner into the turn, then took over willingly and drew off.

I ran third at 4/1 in the eighth before scoring with my last bet in the finale.  R9 was a starter optional claimer going a mile and a sixteenth over the synthetic.  Ashmia was the BEST of the Day for the DRF analyst and looked like an odds on winner to me on paper.  Of the 79 running lines in the Form, NONE of them would beat her last SIX numbers.  Oh.  Sporting a 7-for-11 record on the Tapeta and with Irad on board she looked awfully formidable.  Tracked the longshot leader to the lane, took over and drew off as the 2/5 favorite.  And for the day I closed out 2-for-3 with a $5 profit :)

Friday I did find four selections, three of them minimum plays.  Ran 2nd with one and didn't hit the board with the others.  I'd been texting with my "Disney Girl" Amanda for weeks now as we tried to find a day and time to get together.  On Wednesday I reached out to her and told her on my FB memories it showed that it had been this very week, Holy Bull Week, last year that we'd last been together to catch up.  She texted me back that she thought she'd be free and later that evening she let me know she was.  So we met for lunch the next day and spent two hours catching each other up on what had been going on.  Amanda has been such a good gal-pal since getting out of college and we enjoy chatting, never running out of things to talk about.  Here's a look back at me & Amanda thru the years.

Saturday arrived and Keith and I were pretty convinced by the morning that we'd be best served to play the races from the Sunrise Simulcast Center.  When the Gulfstream analysts on site noted early on that a light rain had started and fans were scrambling for cover we knew we'd made the right choice.  And even though the rain didn't last long, the air temperature and the breeze would have made for a most uncomfortable day in the stands I'm convinced.  That was validated to me - not that I need to be validated you understand :) - when the winner of the Holy Bull walked into the winner's circle and the drone shot overhead showed the width of the grandstand with less than a dozen brave souls sitting in the seats.  Wise choice Mr. Mark!  I'd planned on playing multiple tracks today but waited before handicapping.  The Fair Grounds came on line mid-week and not only were there no stakes events, it was a nine race card with pretty average races, a no.  Aqueduct and Laurel had entries but with the weather I was pretty sure neither would be running.  I looked at Santa Anita and again, was not impressed.  So I thought I'd play just Gulfstream.  But Friday morning I remembered there were stakes at Tampa so I added that card.  In the end I had fifteen selections on my sheet.  Lost both the first two races at Gulfstream, finishing off the board in both at 5/2 odds.  Race 4 was a maiden optional claimer for 3yo's and I thought Wall Street was a likely winner, though believed he would be short odds.  He was favored on debut at Churchill but broke poorly and appeared to have just jogged around the track.  Trainer Brad Cox is 27% second time out and Irad Ortiz took the call.  Right to the front and was clear into turn.  But turning for home was headed at the furlong pole.  That's nearly always the kiss of death for front runners, but Wall Street was resurgent and edged back in front and crossed the line first!

Missed on the next two, including at 3/5 at Tampa with the DRF Best Bet - I wasn't convinced he was that likely and only went for a double investment.  But at Gulfstream If Not For Luck got me back into the winner's circle.  My original pick was scratched from this synthetic claiming sprint, but I'd noted in my analysis that 'Luck was clearly the one to fear.  Was away at the back of the field and with the way the synthetic almost always favors speed, I had little hope.  Especially when the field hit the far turn and he wasn't even on the screen.  But like a shot out of a cannon he came flying down the middle of the track and blew by at the 16th pole!

Minutes later they were in the gate at Tampa for their sixth, a MSW 3yo sprint.  I told Keith he would NOT like my pick, Current Yield.  When asked to explain I told him that it was a Chad Brown horse and I knew from last week he shared by disdain for Brown's runners at GP who appear, again this year, to be prepping for Keeneland and not well meant.  But I pointed out to him that at Tampa - for what ever reason, Brown seems to be "LIVE."  Wasn't a fan of the rail draw but thought he was more than good enough to get the job done in an average field.  Broke slowly - of course, which horses of mine don't?  WOW - quickly recovered and joined three longshots on the front.  Dueled as a foursome into the lane and then cut the corner and spurted to a clear lead.  Opened up in the final furlong and drew away.  The best part - went off at 2/1 and with my double investment I cashed for $30.

Ran 2nd and 3rd in the next two....the first at 3/5 and the second in the first stakes of the day, the Tampa Bay on the turf in Oldsmar.  The stakes action began at Gulfstream in the eighth with the Swale Stakes.  Many years ago this seven furlong event served as a first step to the Kentucky Derby for runners looking to stretch out in the late spring, but now it's just another 3yo listed event.  Todd Pletcher was sending out a very talented 3yo, Class President.  While his debut Beyer was impressive, he was facing winners for the first time AND drew the rail.  That led me to Saffie Joseph's Solitude Dude.  He had drawn the open air outside box and not only had an impressive debut win but had rolled in Tampa's Inaugural Stakes as the prohibitive 1/9 favorite.  Irad landed here.  Right to the front, confidently handled to the stretch.  Asked and responded as he ran away to draw clear by nearly a pole with my triple investment on board.  I'm 4-for-10 on the day and within range of getting even with my bankroll.

I only had five races left on the day, but two of them were my BEST Bets - one each at Tampa and Gulfstream.  And much to my delight, I scored in four of the final five races.  The eighth at Tampa was an entry level allowance and most of the time these races are too difficult to predict.  But here, Todd Pletcher's Disruptor appeared to be a standout to me....IF the long layoff wasn't an issue.  After a sharp third in his debut, the $1.1 Million sales grad had ran away to a daylight score earning a huge 92 Beyer.  Pletcher sent him out for his first try against winners in the Grade 1 Florida Derby!  Sent off at 3/1 he lost all chance at the start.  Now off the long layoff he faced far easier.  And I thought, if Pletcher was shipping here and not running in his own backyard, they had to be serious.  Was away slowly (again, seriously?) but advanced five wide into third as they hit the turn.  Glided past and drew off as much MUCH the best and I cashed for nearly $40.  Next on my sheet was the Grade 3 Endeavour from Tampa on the grass.  I did not like the favorite and thought that maybe Aussie Girl could get loose on the lead.  Right to the front, backed the pace down and exploded away in the lane at a generous 4/1 price.  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOO!

The Endeavour closed the Tampa program.  I ran third at a big 6/1 price in Gulfstream's Grade 3 Forward Gal, the prep for the Gulfstream Park Oaks in two months.  But my BEST of the Day in Hallandale was next in the Sweetest Chant on the turf for 3yo fillies.  The FanDuel analysts were not convinced that Sister Troienne could continue winning.  But for me, she'd lost in a dirt sprint debut, but had since gone four-for-four in her route races.  That included two stakes - one on synthetic and the last over this turf course.  I thought she looked as formidable as a 3yo filly could at this point in the year.  Tracked the longshot leader while clear of the rest of the field to the turn.  Exploded with a devastating turn of foot to clear quickly and drew off by as many as she pleased.  

The final race on the card, and for me was the national feature, the Grade 3 Holy Bull.  Again, much like the previous race, the on-air handicappers were nearly unanimous in NOT picking my top choice, Todd Pletcher's 3yo colt, Nearly.  He'd been very impressive beating state-bred MSW, but his effort when drawing off against entry level foes going 7f here earlier looked like a real glimpse at a rising star.  Loved the bullet work for today and long time partner Johnny Velazquez was in the irons.  Right out of the gate Velazquez sat on the hip of the front running favorite.  To me as I watched the race I thought he was sitting on a powder keg of horse while the front runner looked to be running with a lot of effort.  On the turn Nearly swept to the front and drew off impressively.  BINGO!  Finished the day a remarkable 8-for-15 with a tidy profit!

Sunday I only hit on one of the four picks, but the one I hit, Paris Surprise, was an ironic winner since in a little over six weeks we depart on our next tip to...........yes, Paris!

For the week
26 /11 - 3 - 5   42% WINS  ROI $2.08

With the end of the month it was time to total the numbers for the first half of the winter season.  Improved the winning percentage from last year at this point by some five plus points while playing about the same number of races (four less).  Compared to two years ago before the noticeable downgrade in quality of runners, I played nearly 150 less races this season compared to 2023-24.

Social Media this week.....

Our good friend Shelly lives in North Carolina which was completely buried by snow this weekend, and she posted a few pics.  She's such a cute girl, always has been so I messaged her via FB and got an instant recognition.

My former student Jen - best known for going to the Univ of Colorado....getting very homesick, I visited her and was instrumental in getting her to stay...where she lives today - commented on my picture with Amanda and I messaged her saying I wished we could have one.  That led to a long conversation via text.  She expressed a desire to read my book and we made tentative plans for us to meet in May and I finally can meet her husband Davis.

Teri Hornstein and I exchanged messages.  First, when Wawa unveiled a new flavor of coffee Teri wished she had Wawa's in Washington where she now lives.  And the next day I had the AI program make a fictional Mark & Teri as I offered her Wawa coffee and she thought that was cool :)  Finally I shared with her my coloring book my son Brad gave me and she thought that was a great gift :)

Lauren Pastrana and I exchanged several messages.  Of note she thanked me for donating to her fund raising cause again this year and I shared with her my eye injection experience for the week.  She wrote back that her father-in-law has a similar condition.

Far and away the "best" exchange came with my best gal-pal and most favorite former, Kimmy.  She replied to my update on my eye.  But I really enjoyed our exchange on Sunday morning about the weather.  In particular when I told her I'd been brave (or foolish I guess you could say!) to jump into the pool when the feels like temps were in the 20's and almost immediately I got back a "Nooooooo"  :)  Loved the snow-covered pics from her - note I used one for the banner for this week!

This past week I also finished my book, "Who Would Have Thought" that is a fictionalized telling of the love story I have lived with my wife, inspired by an AI image I asked for of Kimmy and I meeting to catch up.  I "published" it online for anyone who would be interested in reading the story and I had about half a dozen people say they would be interested.  We'll see who does.  But I must add that after initially wanting to share the story, by book's end I came to the realization that I most wanted to write it for me.  I enjoyed the reimagining of my life's significant events with Kim, but I enjoyed as much telling it through, as my partner Mr. ChatGPT said, through a fictional lens.  Click the title photo below to visit the online story:

Gulfstream 2025-26: Week 9

 Pegasus Weekend

The first REALLY big day of the meet - it was Pegasus Day on Saturday.  My typical $10 Saturday seats in a grandstand box near the finish line had run me $500 per ticket for today.  TRULY a big event if pricing is the criteria ;)  The Thursday card was a click better than most Thursday cards to date.  Although I have found it interesting oh this side note, that beginning in January....according to the calendar put out by Gulfstream prior to the start of the Championship Season....we were to begin going to five day weeks a couple of weeks ago, but still we start on Thursdays.  Of the ten races on the day I found selections I was willing to invest in for five of them.  The first race of the week that I bet on was the third, a 3yo claiming event going five panels on the all weather.  I liked Sillicum as an upset pick despite the fact that she'd never been short AND had never been on the Tapeta.  But. according to the DRF's Mike Welsh she'd looked good in the morning working with a runner who'd scored with a big figure in a MSW event off the work.  Not much of a fan of Welsh and his opinions typically do not carry much weight for me in my handicapping.  BUT the one thing he is very good at is analyzing works.  Sillicum tracked the leaders in mid-pack through the turn.  Swung wide into the clear heading for home and was just up in time.  Best part.....paid $9.60 and I was able to score for almost $25 to start the week off.

Doubled the bet on my next pick who went off at 3/5 and finished fourth - wow.  Despite my remarks above regarding Welsh I noted in the analysis for R6 that he was spot on naming Running On Time as clearly the one to beat.  Just missed for a richer price in start number two last time out and Irad Ortiz took the call.  Pressed the pace to the far turn then took off as easily best at a short price.  Ran second in with the 3/5 favorite to my second choice in the final wager of the day.

Early in the week I got a card in the mail from Gulfstream offering a free Pegasus hoodie to rewards members who were on track Friday.  I'll grant you that I didn't look at the card all that closely, but since Kim was leaving for Orlando in the afternoon I told Keith I planned to go out.  We figured - like most things at Gulfstream they would not be prepared when racing began so our plan was to have lunch and then hop in line.  I'd taken the mail card just in case.  Well turns out that was the only way to get the hoodie.  Completely chaotic distribution but I got mine so I was please.  I had one solid bet and in a 3yo MSW race I was pretty sure I'd bet one of three firsters.  The one "solid" bet ran third as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.  And one of the three firsters I picked won - not the one I bet.  Figures.  :)

Saturday:  Pegasus Day arrived with bright sunshine and warm temperatures.  Interesting in that we had just come off a weekend where temperatures were unseasonably cold in the mid-40s in the mornings and NEXT weekend is projected to be more of the same.  But with the whole world watching South Florida and the Pegasus World Cup card, we had Chamber of Commerce weather with warm sunshine and a high in the low 80's during the height of the day.  I had taken nearly two days to go through the big 13-race card, including eight stakes races, and as I told both Kim & Keith, I thought there was a better than average chance I'd go 0-for-13 on the day as none of the races had a definitive winner, not did I have a selection in any race that I couldn't make a case against while making a strong case for someone else in the race.  We left at 9:30am with an 11am first post.  We had very little traffic and parked close to the exit lane in the "other parking lot" - unlike where I usually park.  As soon as we walked in it was about 30 minutes to post time and I went to make the first three bets, while cashing left over tickets from two weeks ago.  My top choice, a tepid minimum bet one, had scratched.  I looked over my selection sheet and my second choice, Being Betty was the most likely winner but the reason I had not put her on top was that the barn and rider both had low win percentages.  Well, I thought, I'm not going to pass the race.  And then long-time Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti announced his picks and he had 'Betty on top.  Went into the Silks simulcast area to the back and found "my girl" Kimberly - who if you've forgotten is a blonde and has a twin (Karen-who works along side her) - and made my bets while chatting as we've come to do. 

Being Betty left the gate at a big 8/1 price and sat the perfect trip behind the embattled leaders.  I thought as they approached the far turn that I had a chance.....took the lead into the lane and opened up.  But then here came the closers....PHOTO FINISH.  I'd been chatting with the couple behind us, from Colorado on their first visit to Gulfstream, and he thought that the outside horse had nailed my horse on the inside.  But then the camera zoomed in on 'Betty and soon it was official.  Paid a huge $19.60 and I had a ticket worth nearly $50!

In the second, I liked Swing Vote in a 3yo MSW sprint.  She'd broken dead last but rallied for third in her debut.  Maybe today she'd break better. It was a wide open race, but you never know and I was playing since we were on track.  Was away slowly, but not as terribly as her debut.  Rallied on the turn, cleared off at the 16th pole and suddenly I'd gone two-for-two.  I joked with the lady who takes tickets and is "my friend," but I do not know her name - though she knows mine! - that I should go home and call it a perfect 2-for-2 day :)  But of course that wasn't happening.

Three of the next five races saw the winner pay huge prices and the other two, while one of the top three public choices were not the favorite.  Obviously I didn't have any of them.    The eighth was the  Grade 3 Fred Hooper.  I thought Knightsbridge from the Bill Mott barn and Life And Times from Todd Pletcher's barn would put on a show in a virtual match race.  But the Pletcher colt had only been out twice and I thought that Mott's more experienced runner would prevail.  They went at it through the far turn and then Knightsbridge drew off impressively.

The remainder of the day belonged to price horses with the winners paying $14.00, $33.20, $8.20, $11.20, and in the Pegasus I watched as one of my favorite horses, Skippylongstockings rallied at better than 20/1 to win the big prize.  Shook my head - though I'd never have considered him seriously in this spot, I've cashed on him so many times at odds on.  Go figure :)

The day's results showed littered tickets everywhere with so many big prices.  I'd had one win from the one race I bet out of town so having seriously considering I may go 0-for on the day, I was content with a 4-for-14 day and a small loss of about $25.

Sunday I thought I'd use my AI program (remember I'd mentioned earlier about writing a fictional story?) to put ME in the winner's circle with the Pegasus trophies.  That's a pretty good likeness - but like in my fictional book, the "fictional Mark" isn't a true match for the "real Mark," but close enough that at a first glance you MIGHT think it's me :)  I hit two more wins on Sunday with Code Review and Sheshighmaintainence in back to back races to finish the week an ok 8-for-26

Social Media this week......

I've said many times before in writing this section of my journals how "important" my human contact is with my online friends. This week, despite having my wife here until Friday, and having our buddy Keith here for the winter, still....it was a significant part of my week, and a "feel good" experience.  And I will say that this week was even more so with a couple of them.   At the beginning of the week I reached out to former weekend anchor Teri and she messaged me back to "stay warm."  Better than just the "like" I've received of late.

The first of the "that felt good" return contacts.  Karli Barnett and I used to message and/"talk" on her Facebook LIVE chats very often.  But since she's moved to Atlanta that's become less so.  This week Karli posted about getting an award at the newsroom and I commented on it.  Instead of a "like" or a simple "Thank you," or an even better, "Thank you Mark" Karli wrote back, "Mark Love thank you my friend."  That it was more than a standard reply made me smile.

Our Orland realtor, and now ew friend Sophia and I continue to stay in touch and I believe she's as sincere as I am about once we are up there, growing our friendship and getting together.  I reached out to her about Pegasus Day and she was delayed in reply.  I didn't think anything of it....the girl has two little ones, a husband and is a working woman - AND realtors are often more busy on the weekend than during the week (I think).  But when she replied she began by apologizing for not responding sooner.  Such a sweet girl, their friendship is appreciated.

Lauren Pastrana and I communicate often, you know if you read this section regularly.  We've become about as "normal" of friends (I think) as you can be considering we've never met in person.  So FOR ME it didn't feel unusual or out of character that when I saw her early in the week doing her solo at six thing and she struck me as being particularly pretty that evening, I messaged her to that effect.  I smiled when she wrote back rather than the simple heart I get.....and I got one of those nearly every day during the week.  I chuckled out loud when I commented on her being on air at 5:30 which is usually the half hour she is not anchoring and asked if this was the "new normal" since she did NOT say she was "in for" the usual gal that does that segment.  What made me chuckle was that she referenced that conversation from a couple weeks ago by saying that line had been deleted by the producer :)  When I commented that I enjoy most her posts about "every day Lauren" she replied she has an upcoming post that I'll like.  But the one I appreciated most came when I sent her a pic from the Pegasus - on Saturday, not a work day....but an at home with family day, and she had ball games to be at all day.....and she "replied" with a heart.  Big smile to be recognized by my gal-pal :)

Clearly, far and away, the best, exchange of the week came from my most favorite former, Kimmy who would be at the top of the list (besides my wife & family) if I were asked "what adults do you feel closest to and share your most important moments with?"  And so it was this week when I had an eye appointment and was told I MAY not need an injection.  Came home and Kim was at pickleball, and this was a big deal to share with someone....it was Kimmy that I thought of.  She didn't see it right away but when she did she was so supportive.  Early in the week we chatted about the impending big winter storm coming and I asked her to keep me posted on how they "survived" the cold and snow/ice.  I figured I'd reach out to her to see how they were at the first of the week.  But on Sunday afternoon as I was watching races my phone flashed and I immediately noted the "Kimmy" heading.  It WAS cool that she sent me videos of her kids and a photo of what it was like, and told me it was so very cold.  But what meant the most to me was that she reached out to me without my prompting - and HAD let me know.  I thought afterwards that maybe she did, maybe she didn't (and that would be my guess) reach out to anyone else like she did to me.  We ARE close friends that do follow one another.  I then said to her, that I enjoyed the images but where was she?  Another photo came and I still didn't see her, asked again.  Then about a half hour later I thought, did I just not see her?  Blew up the pic and looked closely, THERE she was - had not recognized her all bundled up and frozen.  Immediately messaged her and thanked her....and she replied back....and "laughed" at my comment about how cold I GET when I am in the pool in the morning.  Finally you'll note the final set of images of Kimmy below display the ChatGPT logo.  She inspired my creative writing of the story of my "Hallmark love story" with my wife and in the story she "plays the part" of MY Kim.  These two AI generated images of the fictional Kimmy in the story bear striking resemblance to the real Kimmy :)