Rebel Stakes Week

 February 19 - 23
"Comeback Week!"

If you'd asked me late Friday afternoon how the week's racing is going, I'd have had an entirely different answer and state of mind than what I have as I write this weekly wrap up!  But yet again, this week was another example of a lesson I learned several years ago when I began playing the races on a regular basis.  And that is to stick with it, I AM going to win in the long run!  The week started out with my pick in the second going off at 5/2, pressing the pace to the turn and fading badly to seventh.  In the fifth I left the gate at 4/1 and was always near the back - 6th.  In the seventh I was "sure" I had the winner as War Officer was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite in a maiden claiming turf route.  Traced the leaders well in hand while fourth to the far turn, moved up confidently - even Announcer Pete called out "here she comes" but then flattened out to finish 2nd, wow.  And closed the day in the eighth when pressing the pace for a half mile at 2/1 then backed up to dead last.  0-for-4 on the day.  Thursday wasn't much better with the only "positive" being that I only found two bets for the day.  In the 3rd I was again the prohibitive favorite at even money, moved boldly but couldn't get by the 9/1 winner.  Then in the finale, R9 I thought I was going to even up my bankroll when Vekoma's War left the gate at 5/1 and was in complete control, loose on the lead turning for home without ever being asked.  And then the top two ran by him.  0-for-2 on the day, now 0-for-6 for the week.  That's ok, I'll bounce back tomorrow I thought.  In the third I was the 8/5 second choice...dueled on the lead saving ground on the rail into the lane and gave way to be a weakening 4th.  Was 2/1 in the 6th race and immediately was at the back of the pack where I stayed until making mild improvement late to finish a well-beaten fourth.  Finally, in the seventh I was the even money favorite....dueled with the 5/2 second choice and never got by to finish 2nd......0-for-3 on the day and now a miserable 0-for-9 to start the week.

Saturday was originally supposed to be Rebel Stakes Day in Hot Springs at Oaklawn but a big winter storm moved through early in the week pushing all the races back a day.  With a Panthers game at 6pm I wasn't going out to Gulfstream and there just weren't many attractive cards to handicap.  Tampa had two turf sprint stakes so I played a few races there and a few from Gulfstream.  Because I'd handicapped both cards on Wednesday I was using the DRF early odds which are often way off.  Such was the case with my first bet which was listed at 12/1 for Tampa's second race, before finishing 3rd as the 8/5 choice.  R2 at Gulfstream was next.  It was an entry level allowance and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott was sending out Euro import Serene Saraph.  Listed at an outlandish 50/1 by the DRF I wrote I expected her to be at least 1/10th that based on the connections, her being a Euro shipper and most especially two flashy bullet works.  When I opened the live video feed with a little over ten minutes to post I had to do a double check as she was 10/1.  Do I have the right horse and number?  Yes.  Well it's early in the betting.  Dropped to 9/1 and I thought here we go.  But as they went into the gate she floated back up and left at a remarkable 12/1.  Maybe I'm that wrong.  But right away I could see jockey Junior Alvarado had a lot of horse as he was in third while wide into the far turn.  Boldly accelerated around the field and catapulted to the front a furlong out.  While it got close late I knew from the furlong pole home I was a winner.  The prices flashed up at double digits and suddenly I'm nearly even for the week as I collected over $65!  WOW.

Ran 2nd in a starter handicap at Tampa and my next bet wasn't until the 8th on the west coast as I tabbed Great Venezuelan to win Tampa's Lightning Stakes going five panels on the grass.  As I noted in my analysis, the first thing that caught my attention as I scanned the past performances was the lack of a single stakes winner.  That made my picking 'Venezuela even easier.  What I liked most was if you drew a line through anything but a sprint on turf or Tapeta, his LAST SIX STARTS in those races had all seen him a winner!  He was near the back into the far turn and I was thinking that I'd at least gotten a price for my pick, then he suddenly accelerated four wide through the turn picking off runners.  Fanned at least six wide turning for home he had all the momentum and surged by late to win at a nice 2/1 price enabling me to cash for another $30 plus!

The 9th at Gulfstream was next on my sheet, and it was a 3yo MSW event.  Skate Away was being stretched out by Todd Pletcher who just hasn't been as reliable for me this winter.  But I wasn't about to allow him to start beating me at this point.  He was a $400K son of BC Juvenile and Haskell winner Good Magic so I knew the distance wasn't an issue.  But what I really liked was he had run fourth to his stablemate River Thames who came right back to win a one-turn mile allowance event and just might be on the Florida Derby trail.  Right to the front but took pressure through the first mile of the 9f test.  Turning for home he opened up and was clear to the wire.  And FINALLY I had a Pletcher maiden at a price as he paid $10.40 and I collected over $50.  Oh I'm having a pretty good day my friends!

Kim and I left for the game and before the hockey started I watched the second of the stakes from Tampa and I was a good enough but non-threatening third.  During the period break I opened up the replays and watched Todd Pletcher's impressive maiden winner Tuscon track the leader, take command and hold sway to the wire for my fourth win from just seven bets on the day.  For the day I profited over $100 and I am now clearly a winning handicapper for the week!

Sunday,  Rebel Stakes Day dawned and I had a week-high fifteen selections on the sheet today.  That included eight from Oaklawn's stakes-laden card.  And considering it was a Sunday, the six races I'd picked to bet on was a high number.  Continued Saturday's winning ways right off the bat as Roar of the Beast was the favorite all the way to post time then floated up to a more-than-fair 2/1 price.  Tracked the 8/5 post time favorite into the lane and ran by before opening up to win by multiple lengths!

Went on a five race skid including two seconds and a third before it was time for the fifth from Hot Springs.  Bob Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel Stakes more than half a dozen times each, so when he ships from So Cal you have to pay attention.  But both is runners in the Rebel today looked no better than any of the other main contenders.  But here in this MSW dash, Baffert looked loaded.  You HAD to believe that he would not put a $1.1 Million colt on the plane to fly here for their debut unless he thought he had something.  Cornucopian had sparkling workouts and when FanDuel racing analyst Andie Bianconne said he looked like a beast, I upped my already "prime time" / Bet of the Day wager to BET of the WEEK status.  Broke on top and took pressure into the turn.  But when he turned for home and lengthened stride it was a big "WOW" performance.  And somehow the crowd had let his price float up to 3/5 so I cashed for over $50!

Ran 3rd at even money at Gulfstream with a runner that all the on-air handicappers said was just way too good for these and simply should just win.  Uh huh.  Came back in the seventh to bet Ultimate Ready in an entry level allowance going an abbreviated five furlongs on the turf.  Bill Mott was taking over the training for this one who had won over the Turfway synthetic on debut.  BUT....he'd been away for a year and now was moving to the turf.  Still, you had to believe that the barn had some level of confidence by NOT putting him in a claiming event.  Jockey Junior Alvarado was dead last into the far turn and suddenly found another gear.  Weaving through traffic without breaking stride he shifted out into the open at the furlong pole and surged in the final fifty yards to be up for the win....and at a nice $11.40 price!

Faded to fifth in an Oaklawn allowance before picking up my third win of the day at Gulfstream.  Rookie Card was my pick here in a race that probably - I thought - would come down to one of the two favorites.  Off a maiden win he'd been entered to run in Tampa's Pasco Stakes where he dueled on the front end to the far turn when he checked out of the running.  Now dropping into an allowance spot with an Early Speed/Class Drop angle made him the choice.  I could see why some would like the other favorite and when his Woodbine-based trainer was interviewed and said she had thought this colt was very talented from the beginning I had my doubts.  Still, while 'Rookie had questions to answer, the Woodbine shipper was..... going MSW to allowance; coming off a layoff since July; stretching from 5 1/2 furlongs to seven furlongs; AND going synthetic to first time dirt.  Right to the front, took pressure all the way into the stretch before opening up and running away with it.

Missed at 4/5 in Oaklawn's Oaks prep, the Gr 3 Honeybee when Brad Cox's Muhimma was flat through the lane to finish third.  Then in the Gulfstream finale Ciao Chuck went right to the front in a MSW turf route for older.  Opened a clear lead, then was caught in the lane, but surged late to be up in time!

I was third in both the two final races from Oaklawn, both graded events.  BUT in the latter, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Baffert's Madaket Road finished 2nd at 5/1 so with the Xpressbet promotion I'd opted in on I "cashed" my ticket for the full amount.  Check out the week's totals which started so awful :)

Social Media this week......

In next to every journal when I chronicle my social life, nearly 99.9% virtual, it's almost always my interactions with online pals, and to be fair - and who's complaining1 - which are nearly all females.  But I often get "likes" and/or reactions to my FB posts or to posts of Kim and I.  So let's start with Kim & I this week because Saturday was a B-I-G day for Kim, and us.  For the first time since November when she had her double knee replacement procedure she went to a Panthers hockey game.  I was so happy and excited to have my sweet girl with me!  And you can see, that photo got a LOT of reaction!

Now, me :) - early in the week we had another nice cold snap and so I posted my photo and got a lot of reactions from my 

My girl Chloe posted the coolest set of photos early in the week.  I'm pretty sure it was through her radio station, but regardless, Chloe was able to be in the pits at the Daytona 500 and took her dad, my great buddy Jeff with her.  So very cool.

Karli Barnett posted a pic and I reacted & commented which drew a reply from my former very close gal-pal.  I miss seeing her frequently on the CBS-Miami News and taking part in her then weekly Facebook live chats.

Current weekend news anchor Teri continues her recovery and I reach out to her every couple days to encourage her.....

Kim and I met Manuka on our British Isles trip and we've been FB pals since.  She posts pics of her travels and this week she replied to my comment on her latest adventure.

Kim and I are close friends with Shelly who at one time was Kim's asst. volleyball coach and she worked with us at Cypress Bay High.  It was five years ago that she was in So Fla and we spent the evening together.  That came up on my FB Memories and I shared it with Shelly.   I  told her it was a great day.  And she replied to the same.

It's interesting to me, and makes me smile that gal-pal Lauren Pastrana and I have almost daily interactions.  As I said to Keith a week ago, I'd love to know if she interacts with me because she thinks that I'm just an active fan/viewer, or if she does indeed consider me an online friend.  From some of her recent comments I'd say and hope the latter.  This week we interacted and exchanged messages every single day, all seven days.  It was highlighted by Lauren's participation in the Dolphins' Cancer Challenge fund raiser which I'd earlier contributed to her drive, but added more this week.