January 12 - 16
This week was a GREAT week, for several reasons. One, the racing was excellent; two, the racing - by the end of the week PROVED what I know, but always like to be reminded of (stick with it, you WILL win); three, the weather turned much cooler and I enjoyed being outside for the day at the track; four, our NHL hockey team, the Florida Panthers are R-E-A-L-L-Y good; and five, unlike last week I had several social media interactions. So let's talk about the week.... Monday was the college football national championship game and it was a great game to watch, and follow along with online with my older son Jeff - who was at the National Coaches' Convention and one of "my CBS-4 anchor girls" who is an alumni of the national champion Georgia Bulldogs. Then on Tuesday Kim and I went to the Florida Panthers game as we steamrolled the Vancouver Cannucks to take over first place in the national hockey league. Kim left on Thursday to go to the west coast ahead of me and I went to the Friday game alone, met up with my buddy Enzo and we watched our 'Cats crush the Dallas Stars 7-1. Saturday morning I headed over to Cape Coral for our oldest son's birthday party and to spend the two days with his family. Had a great time (while watching racing) and watched the Panthers obliterate the Columbus Blue Jackets on TV 9-2. WOW. Then Sunday we went to Ford's Garage for lunch before heading back. It was a full week, not even including the racing highlights, which were MANY!
On Wednesday the racing started and right off the bat I cashed! Banker's Hours didn't give the maiden claimers he was facing a chance as he went wire to wire as the 9/5 favorite and I cashed for almost $15 to kick off the week.
The rest of the card was mediocre and had a lot of Tapeta races, especially since the two scheduled turf events were moved there. Only had two other picks and I ran fourth in both as the favorite. Thursday I thought I had some solid picks, but I ran 5th, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, and then 9th as I watched on my computer, home alone, while handicapping for a track visit on Friday. The final race rolled around and it was a first level allowance originally scheduled to go a mile and a half on the turf, now on the all-weather. I had liked Todd Pletcher's Mezcal who'd won at a mile and a quarter and had run a good second at 9 1/2 furlongs, so it was not going to be about the distance. But with the move to the all-weather, what would we get? As the analysis aired I noted that Acacia Courtney had made Mezcal her BEST Bet, and the Pletcher entry was taking a lot of money so I doubled my double up bet. Right to the front under Luis Saez and never looked back.....whoooo hoooo!
I was glad to have snapped the seven race skid, and with a "prime-time" play....AND I was appreciative of the added confidence that Acacia's analysis had provided me. Because I was heading over to Cape Coral on Saturday and would miss out being at Gulfstream for Sunshine Millions Day (Part 1 as there are two more SSM races next weekend) I planned on going out to the races on Friday. This became an even bigger deal because the weather was brisk (barely got into the 70's and as you can see I'm in a sweater with a long-sleeve shirt all day); and with Kim out of town it gave me something to occupy my day, and I was heading to the hockey game that night. The day began and I had a pick in the first race, a maiden claiming event for 3yo going six furlongs. It was a cheap $12.5K event, but lightly raced Frolic Man looked best for leading trainer Saffie Joseph and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Thought he'd either be on or pressing the lead to the turn before running away. Went off at a more than fair 9/5 price and pressed the leader to the turn. Edged to the front and from my seat in the grandstands I watched him draw off and score! OK, here we go!
Over the next two and a half hours I couldn't cash a ticket. And as I always say to Kim when I get home and she asks, "How was your day at Gulfstream," ..... "I enjoy being there regardless of the way the races turn out, but....." And so I kept telling myself, enjoy the day. Your winning tickets will come eventually. I did A winner at the Fair Grounds, but that was it since walking into the track around noon.
It was close to 3:30 and following the seventh at Gulfstream, which was my next bet, I had a couple of picks scratch and I was looking at only two bets over the span of more than an hour. So I decided to watch the 7th live, then head home rather than waiting at the track and then hurrying home to dash over to the hockey arena. Living Water was entered in a Maiden Optional Claiming event for $50K and I thought she looked very live even though she'd lost for $30K. That was at the Keeneland Fall meet where the competition is very strong. She was going first off the claim for a barn that wins a third of those, and she looked to be loose on the lead for leading rider Luis Saez. Sure enough, shot to the front and never looked back! I'd tripled the bet so I had a $40 and change winning ticket in my pocket!
I made bets for the last four races on my sheet and headed home. I got home and opened up the computer to watch the last four races. The first was a maiden special from Tampa where there were TWO Todd Pletcher 3yo running the 7f distance. I went with Shinnecock Hills who was a $600K WinStar colt. Both he and the "other" colt were first time starters but I figured (a) the big price, (b) the top client ownership group, and (c) jockey Pablo Morales who's winning at better than 30% at Tampa this winter all gave him the edge over the other one. As the field approached the far turn Shinnecock Hills was near the back, wow. Just like the day so far I thought. Then he began to accelerate and pick off horses. He was six wide into the stretch but had a lot of momentum and I thought I had a real chance. He struck the front at the 16th pole but here came the "other" Pletcher runner. WHERE'S THE WIRE???? PHOTO FINISH!
And the best part - well besides the obvious fact that I won - was that he went off at 3/1 and I'd doubled the bet so I was sitting on ANOTHER $40 ticket! As I finished logging in the results on my selection sheet I opened the Gulfstream replays and the 9th race was ready for viewing. I had picked Domineer who was listed at 6/1 in the DRF morning line but I thought he'd be about 3/1 despite stepping up off a win against cheaper. Why? Because he was first off the claim for Jose D'Angelo, and that's a 31% win angle, but he also was picking up top rider Luis Saez. Looking at the past performances, the likely favorite would probably elect to let Saez go to the front, and THAT I thought would be a mistake because loose off the lead, with the top rider, AND first off the claim the upset could be on. I could not have been more right with one small detail being wrong.......he did go to the front, he WAS loose on the lead as the favorite let him go and couldn't get by....BUT he was NOT 3/1, he went off at a big 6/1 price. OH how I wished I'd doubled the bet on this $15.20 winner, but I still was cashing for almost $40 again. How ironic the success I'm having "at the track," after I've left!
Just about as I finished watching my top choice go down to defeat at the Fair Grounds at a miniscule 2/5 price, they were loading into the gate for the finale at Gulfstream. Over The Channel was a 3x winner over the Gulfstream turf and he'd run a third in Tampa's Turf Classic last year - one of several stakes tries. AND he didn't show a single race for a tag, like today's event. With the race being moved to the all-weather I still went with him because trainer David Fawkes had been discussed several times on the Gulfstream Handicapping Show as one of the more successful trainers with runners on the Tapeta. A week ago they'd talked about him being 4-for-7 with those kind. So I didn't mid at all that the race moved to the new surface. Right from the jump of this mile and a sixteenth event I knew he had a good chance. Broke sharply and was just off the leader while being hard held. Just looked like he was ready to take off when ever jockey Emisael Jaramillo asked. As they turned down the backstretch the chicklets with the post time odds flashed on the screen. OH MY.....Over The Channel had left the gate at a huge 7/1 price! I'm about to score big, if he wins. On the far turn he glided to the front, was clear and when the others were asked to run at the top of the stretch he found yet another gear and drew off by daylight. OH MY SQUARED!
He paid a massive $16.60 and I HAD doubled the bet, so now in addition to the $30+ ticket and TWO $40+ tickets, I had a ticket worth $83! Suddenly, after starting the day with only two winners, I'd finished 6-for-14 and made almost $100 in profit. As I sat in my seat at the arena while the Panthers were ahead 4-0 after the first period I reflected on what a great day I was having and how fortunate I am. World Class racing, LIVE....picked almost 50% winners......made almost $100.....AND get to watch the best team in the NHL, LIVE. WHAT A Day!
Saturday, Sunshine Millions Day / Cal Cup Day
Because I knew I'd be at the birthday party and with the family on Saturday I only handicapped to two cards that featured the Sunshine Millions & Cal Cup stakes - Gulfstream and Santa Anita. AND as I went through the two cards I was particular about only wanting to bet if I thought I had a strong advantage. So I only had thirteen races on the sheet as I set my computer up on Jeff's desk. No bets until the third when I took Chad Brown's Conglomerate in a maiden claiming event. In any other season the class dropping Klaravich runner would have earned at least a double if not triple bet from me. BUT, heading into today's races the usually strong Brown barn was only 2-for-17, AND this race had been slated for the Tapeta, which Conglomerate had never been on. So, he SHOULD win, but the trainer's lack of success, the new surface and the almost certain short price - only willing to go in for the minimum. He won, at odds-on, but it was far from a dominant performance. Still, I won and that's what matters!
Missed on the next two from Gulfstream before we got to the sixth of the day, the Sunshine Millions Classic. This nine furlong test on the main track had the very classy Todd Pletcher runner Shamrocket who was the morning line favorite. Clearly the class of the field as of the combined 15 stakes from the field on the page, NINE were in this guy's pp's and the only graded tries were on his page. But here's the thing....in twenty-one career starts he'd only run on the turf, NEVER on the dirt like today's race was. What the???? Pletcher showing a 21% win rate on the surface change and who am I to question a guy who's been the leading trainer here 16 times! Through the opening half mile, as I watched it with my oldest son Jeff, we both agreed....Shamrocket didn't seem to care for running on dirt, at all. But when they hit the far turn and Hall of Fame, and recently rejuvenated jockey, Javier Castellano asked him to run he accelerated and began making his move on the leaders. You look at the photo below and you will say, OH that was close, but it really wasn't. He took the lead in deep stretch and won by "just enough" with my double investment ticket on board.
Missed in the seventh at GP where there were two Chad Brown runners and I picked the wrong one, sigh. But I bounced right back with my first win out west when Cause She's A Lady was easily best in as the short priced favorite in a maiden claiming sprint. In the California Cup Derby I was right to bet against the favorite, but was wrong on who I picked (ran third). On the turf at Santa Anita Hall Freedom pulled clear in the lane for my fourth win of the day, and I upped the bet on him because he was being well played AND all the analysts said that the EIGHT-time maiden had finally found a field he could handle. Scored handily. Missed with a Pletcher maiden and in a SA turf stakes event before we came to the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint. This race was being contested down the unique hillside course - one of my favorite kind of races to bet. And I went with Leggs Galore who was a multiple stakes winner at Santa Anita, on the turf, but had never sprinted like this. Still the fact that she was a front runner and had won going a mile I thought she could carry her speed....AND I thought she looked loose on the lead despite coming off a layoff. Right to the front and never challenged while paying a very generous $7.20, allowing me to cash for over $35 :)
And the final win of the day came in the California Cup Sprint. Brickyard Ride had won this race last year....was a GRADED stakes winner....and looked like the lone speed. Right to the front, long gone!
Finished the day a sharp 6-for-13! Sunday Kim and I were planning to drive home around lunch time so I knew I'd have to make my bets early and watch the replays once we were home. This process was more complicated because heavy storms were forecast to go through So Fla, and they started where we were on the west coast - so severe that several tornadoes touched down in our general area, oh my. So I had to decide which of my bets were still "good" on the off going, and obviously NOT on the turf. We all went out to lunch at my favorite venue, Ford's Garage. When Kim and I rented over here and I was on my son Jeff's coaching staff it was a once-a-week routine to come here to eat. And several times when Kim was in Fort Lauderdale I came for dinner here where I was always kept company by one of the waitresses, Jessica Jordan, who is now a "Facebook friend" of mine. So I took a selfie before we left - really love that place and the memories it brings back.
The drive did NOT have a lot of rain which we were appreciative of, and when we got to Fort Lauderdale our buddy Keith had arrived for his winter stay. Shortly after unloading the cars I sat down to watch the races from the day. When I'd handicapped the Sunday card on Saturday morning before heading to Cape Coral I passed the opener and subsequently didn't like anyone in the 2nd, 4th, 5th, OR 6th race. At that point, having looked at six races already I reflected back on the opener and thought that Paintbrush wasn't a strong pick, but in THIS maiden claiming field he was much better than the others. He was the "least bad," and so much the "least bad" that I thought he'd win. He led the field into the stretch and then struggled to get home, but as I thought, the rest of the field was struggling to finish worse that he was. It's ALL about the match-up. Had my fist winner of the day and would cash for $13 on a minimum play.
In the third I thought Blue Times MIGHT have difficulty winning because he'd just won his maiden race last time out and first time winners is often one of the most difficult tasks a thoroughbred faces. But in THIS case (again, it's all about the match-up) he looked to be loose, all alone on the lead. Right on target was I with my analysis as he led them on a merry chase and I was 2-for-2.
Missed in the 7th with my third pick of the day but in the eighth it was my "best" of the day. Miles Ahead had won the Grade 3 Smile Sprint last summer. But he also had raced for a tag over the last year and a half so he'd qualified to run in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit Stakes on Opening Weekend, and he'd won as the favorite. Today he was in an starter optional claiming event, again because he'd run for a tag in the last 18 months. Just laid over the field on talent, but I knew he wouldn't pay much and with the possibility of an off-track I didn't want to go BIG on the bet. Tripled the bet. He was up close, then taken back, was behind horses on the turn, and then finally jockey Paco Lopez got him in the clear and he drew off handily.
I'll take the three-for-five end to the week! When I was putting together the week's highlight video I printed off the race results for the week and I was curious to add them up. SUCH a slow start to the week probably, I thought balanced out the big Friday results and I was probably around 35% and even for the week. Oh no my friend.....
Whoooo hooo! What a week it was :)
Sunshine Millions Week Highlights
Social Media
So this week kicked off, with my "online friends" with the college football national championship game. If you've been reading my journals you know that CBS-4 weekend anchor Karli Barnett is often someone that I not only message with, but she's one of the best at "having a conversation" - either with her nearly weekly video chats or via Twitter and Facebook Messenger. Being that she's a HUGE Georgia Bulldog fan and they were playing for the title I reached out to her. Over the course of the game we exchanged several messages and I felt like I was watching the game with her :)
On Wednesday's Gulfstream Handicapping Show Acacia Courtney had been asked by long-time analyst Ron Nicoletti if he could tell her a joke, because the name of the horse made him think of this joke. It was NOT a good joke, but just her honest and sincere giggling and laughter was so cool for me to watch. I found myself smiling broadly as I watched her reaction. And when she was NOT on the air on Thursday I messaged her that I missed her and her insight. She replied she'd be back the next day which meant I'd get to see her in person as I watched the horses in the paddock.
One news anchor I do NOT talk about much but I follow online is the ABC Channel 10 morning anchor Jaycee Birch. She has an interesting story and is a single mom. But what's noteworthy is she is very, VERY attractive. And it's clear she KNOWS she's attractive because she is not bashful, at all about showing off her body and what she's got. Any man - I don't care how happily married you are or in love with your girlfriend - would have a hard time NOT looking at her when she posts many of her personal photos. So this week she posted pics of five outfits she planned to wear and what did her followers think. I replied and within fifteen minutes she'd reacted to me. And trust me, this outfit far FAR from the normal level of revealing and showing off her cute figure and body.
Thursday there was a story on the CBS-4 news presented by one of my favorites, Lauren Pastrana, that the state of Florida had named Strawberry Shortcake the "official dessert" of the state. This made me think of the time when I taught in Ohio that we built the world's largest ice cream sundae, out of strawberry ice cream. I sent this in a twitter message to Lauren and she reacted to it :)
Saturday night as we watched the Florida Panthers pre-game, several of the on-air personalities remarked that it was Jessica Blaylocks' birthday and they wished her well. So I sent her a birthday wish and she reacted within ten minutes, while on the air :)
And finally. Since we couldn't go to the game on Saturday and our buddy Enzo couldn't use our tickets we offered them to our good friend Joanie who often takes her daughter Michael Anne. They're always very appreciative of the tickets. Earlier in the year Kim and I were walking up to the arena and I noticed two good looking blondes waving in our direction, one very obviously a younger hottie and I thought to myself, "Would be nice if they WERE waving at me!" Ironically they were....it was Joanie and Michael Anne. So when they were at the game they sent ME a selfie of the two of them. (Interesting they did NOT include Kim on the text!) Adorable :)
No comments:
Post a Comment