The "Off Week"

 January 5 - 9

I found it "interesting" as I looked ahead to this past week's racing that there was very little going on in the world of racing.  I get it how Gulfstream spaces their stakes out, but in the last several years it seems like all the tracks look at each other's calendar and every weekend SOMEONE has a stakes event day.  But this week, not the case.  The lone stakes event of any consequence was the Grade 3 Tropical Turf which was the Saturday highlight race at Gulfstream.  Because there wasn't any big cards I decided I'd play the "slow day" at home.  And even though I looked at four different cards I ended up with only sixteen selections on the day.  So here's how the week worked out for me......

The Wednesday card had nine races and I had only four selections for the day.  But with weather in the area earlier in the week, all the turf races were moved to the Tapeta.  Those were the last two races on my selection list and after some consideration I decided that I really didn't feel comfortable sticking with the bets.  And it was a good decision as both lost and the winners of both those races were long shot plays.  The first pick of the day and week came in the second which was a $12.5K claiming sprint.  It looked pretty obvious to me - either Reservenotattained would wire the field on the class rise under Luis Saez; or the favorite would blow by to win.  I just didn't care all that much for the favorite.  And I was spot on as Saez went right to the front, but was immediately confronted by a 50/1 outsider.  Shook that one off at the head of the stretch and the favorite made his move.  But Saez let out a notch and it was all over.

Two races later was my second and final bet of the day.  If you follow my adventures, you'll recall that last week Javier Castellano had two winners for me, and both on Shug McGaughey runners.  In the fourth, it was a similar story as we were going a mile and a sixteenth to the first finish line in a MSW for sophomores and Castellano was on McGaughey's Scalding.  In his sprint debut he'd shown nothing.  But, that's typical for a McGaughey first timer.  Stretched out to a one-turn mile in his second start he ran super to be second with a big 75 Beyer.  Now third time out, around two turns I expected his best yet.  He broke sharply on the rail and was hounded by a 7/1 outsider all the way to the far turn.  Castellano asked for another gear and got an immediate response as he opened up and drew off comfortably to the wire.  And I closed the day down, two-for-two!

Thursday was an 0-for-day.  None of my horses ran to my expectations or their betting support.  Friday the lone winner on the card came, fortunately, when I upped the bet from the minimum on Mark Casse's Super Legacy.  It was a mile-70 on the all-weather, but I felt more comfortable with this 3yo in this allowance spot because his home base was Woodbine where they have a Tapeta course.  He'd won for fun in his debut, then tried two turns, turf, AND Gr 1 company in his second start.  Speed and stopped.  Then he tried listed company back on the Tapeta and ran evenly in fifth all the way around.  Off the bench and in with allowance runners I thought he looked best.  When hottie handicapper Acacia made him the single in her multi-race bet I decided to up the wager.  Went right to the front, but I didn't like how the third choice seemed to be in hand waiting to confront him all the way around.  Into the stretch that one made his move and the race was on.  It was a thrilling stretch duel to the wire, but I prevailed and cashed for over $20 on my lone winner of the day.

The "big day" came and I played from home even though I COULD have gone to the races since my visiting family had gone home Friday afternoon.  But, even after looking through the past performances for five different tracks I could only come up with sixteen selections.  Missed on the first three, two at Gulfstream and the second at Aqueduct, which is an interesting story.  One of MY horses, Carrothers has made two starts since joining the MyRacehorse group.  A turf experiment which was a BIG NO, then a break slowly and run wide try around two turns.  Today we were going seven furlongs and I felt pretty good about his chances.  Just as announcer John Imbriale said, "They're all in the gate" I saw Carrothers lunge and his gate opened fractional seconds ahead of the rest.  This can't be good.  Rated off the pace and was a hanging third.  DQ'd for leaving early, but jockey Jose Ortiz said he felt had he not broken early he would have gone wire to wire.  Sigh....waiting for the next start.  The third was a MSW going five furlongs on the Tapeta and I will admit to being curious about Comedic who'd been entered to run against the boys on Friday but showed up here against fellow fillies.  The online analysts were all over her as the lone speed and that she'd be long gone shipping in from So Cal.  I was not so sure, at all.  First, she'd never run on Tapeta; second, it wasn't like she'd run huge in her So Cal starts, and third I thought Mouffy was a logical alternative.  This first timer came from the Jonathan Thomas barn.  He was a big 29% with first time starters, was 30% in MSW company, but most important his trainer stats showed a big 35% win angle with synthetic runners from a large sample.  With everyone else locally "trying to figure out" the Tapeta - especially the front running So Cal shipper - I thought this was a good alternative.  When she wasn't well bet I considered changing to the popular front runner, but I just couldn't convince myself that was a good idea.  Comedic led unopposed to the top of the lane, but then Mouffy ran right on by to win going away.  AND at a big 4/1 price allowing me to cash for over $50 with my first winner of the Saturday card.

I came right back with Todd Pletcher's first time starter Iron Works - who ran in the colors of my fellow owners at MyRacehorse with top jockey Luis Saez up.  Pressed the 7/1 front runner while in hand to the turn then took off to a runaway win.  I'd tripled the bet here and cashed for over $30.

Ran second at even money at Aqueduct before getting my third bet with my BET of the Week!  My plan had been to take Todd Pletcher's Dean's List on top in his first try against winners, but because it's not all that uncommon for big figure, first time winners to "bounce," I was going to play it safe and only go in for a triple investment.  A couple of runners scratched out leaving just a field of five and both hottie Acacia and her analyst buddy on air noted he looked loose on the lead.  I went back and forth about if to up the bet and how much.  In the end I decided to go all in.  Rather than double the original $15 wager to $30, I went all the way to $50!  He went right to the front, but in a mirror race to Souper Legacy race yesterday, the 3/1 second choice came calling, in hand at the top of the lane.  I swear that at the furlong pole Dean's List had lost the lead, but you have to love jockey Luis Saez....he will NOT surrender.  He kept pushing and asking and despite being in tight, pinned on the rail the colt resurged and was JUST up on the wire.  Exciting, even more so with the BIG BET!

Cashed for $65 on my third consecutive winner at Gulfstream!  Won back-to-back races out of town to run my streak to five out of six when 11x maiden Akiane's Soldier blew by his turf rivals to finally get a win at the Fair Grounds, and then at Tampa Curlin's Thrill proved me right at a generous $7.60 price allowing me to cash for almost $40.

The final winner of the day came hours later when at the Fair Grounds Scarlett Fusion was way too good for her allowance rivals.  Closed the day down with a 6-for-16 day and a solid profit.

Sunday I only had four picks again, and again we were off the turf.  I decided to stick with that bet, but lowered the bet.  And I found two out of town "obvious" favorites that looked worthy of betting.  I had three wins on the day.  The first winner was Todd Pletcher's Favor.  I was just a touch leery that go-to rider Luis Saez was NOT on board the $500K son of Pioneerofthe Nile AND that he'd disappointed in his Aqueduct debut.  But, this IS Gulfstream and THAT is where Pletcher excels.  Tracked the dueling leaders in hand to the turn, then took off and was the easiest of winners.

Emerald Forest lived up to the hype and the very short price to run to victory at the Fair Grounds (the other out of town short priced favorite stopped in mid-stretch).  And I closed the day with a wire to wire impressive win by A.P.'s Secret in an allowance event going a one-turn mile on the main track.  The Saffie Joseph runner was easily best here as the 4/5 winner.

For the week I cashed, again, on 35% of my picks and had a "good" week overall considering it was an "off week" of racing.  Interestingly for those that read my journals, not a single social media contact this week.  So it goes.....