December 26 - 30: Tropical Derby Week
It was "Longshot Week" at Gulfstream where the favorites REALLY struggled to get home in front, and since most of my selections tend to be one of the top three choices, it meant I had several misses to "go figure" kind of horses.
Wednesday December 26: Opening Day at Santa Anita
I was excited to not only have picks at Gulfstream but to play the stakes-laden card at Santa Anita. At Gulfstream it was a pretty mediocre card and I only had four selections. I had two seconds, a third, and a fourth....that one coming with a prohibitive 1/5 favorite. Typical for the day in Hallandale as the parade of longshots were virtually non-stop.
At Santa Anita I felt pretty good about at least three of my selections. But I was 2nd in the first of the stakes at even money, then a Bob Baffert 2yo, Scalper went off as a short-priced 6/5 favorite and missed the break....weakened to be sixth. The Grade 1 La Brea featured unbeaten filly Dream Tree, also from the Bob Baffert barn. She was 3/5 and showed little, ninth if you can believe it. I was up in the air on several contenders in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile but DRF analyst Brad Free - the only public handicapper left that can change my opinion made River Boyne his BEST BET. That sealed it and I tripled the bet. Came flying late to be up in time!
In the Grade 1 Malibu for 3yo I knew it would be one of the Bob Baffert 3yo, either likely heavy favorite McKinzie or Ax Man. Ax Man had shown great potential and figured to be a nice price. Can't tell you how many times I've seen Baffert have two, especially in stakes, and the big price upsets the other which is typically the favorite. Not today as Ax Man faded to 11th while McKinzie rolled up super impressive.
Thursday December 27
Another ho-hum card at Gulfstream and I had just five picks. But the ones I had I mostly really liked. Only one came home to win while I had not one, not two, but three second place finishes. The one I did have was in the second a claiming event for turf sprinters. Jorge Navarro's Dance Proudly looked best on paper and he was easily best.
While it wasn't quite as big a "longshot day" still there were four BIG price winners that paid whopping prices: $101.20 in the 4th (yes, for a $2 bet), $29.40 in the 5th, $21.20 in the 6th - keying a big Pick-3 payout of $10,600 for a mere $0.50 bet! And the ninth had a $62.40 winner.
Friday December 28
I spent a good part of the day handicapping and again had only four selections that I played on the card - two of them for the minimum. I was a non-threatening fifth with the first bet of the day then was 2nd at 3/5 in the fifth. 4th at 2/1 in the sixth - can a fella buy a winner? Then in the 8th, my last live bet of the day I planned to double the bet on Chad Brown's Icespire. But she was drawing a lot of money and I just had "that feeling." Doubled my own bet to make it prime time and she rolled home to key a $50 payoff and seal a winning day despite going just 1-for-4!
Three more big-priced winners came home. $23 for the opener and $24 in the 2nd to key a nearly $200 daily double; and in the finale the winner paid $51.20.
Saturday December 29: Tropical Park Derby Day
I had a dilemma. Actually I had a double-dilemma. First, I had to make my return to Jenny Craig to get weight back on track this week and I could only get in this morning at 10:20. IF I hurried home I could make it to the races in time for the opener, but it would be close. And even bigger was the fact that today was a BIG college football bowl game day. My Florida Gators were on at noon and then at 4 pm was the first of the two national semi-final games. My plan was to go and stay for the featured Derby and then come home to watch the second half of that first semi-final, skip the hockey game and watch the second semi-final on TV. I would tape the Gator game and if they won I'd watch it tomorrow. But when I got to Jenny Craig I was 20 minutes late even getting in and I knew I'd be lucky if I rushed to get to Gulfstream for the third. Took it as a sign and changed gears.....played all the races at home while watching college football. I was glad I got to see my Gators steamroll Michigan 41-15 and ensure a top-5 position in the final poll I think. From a racing standpoint I had a good "numbers" day as I won my typical 35% and again my wins equaled my 2nd and 3rd place finishes combined (8 - 8) so that I was 1-2-3 in sixteen of twenty-three picks. But the story of the day was that my winners, with two notable exceptions were prohibitive favorites AND both of my best bets didn't win. Right off the bat I was 2nd at 3/1 then 4th at 3/1 and then in the Aqueduct opener Midnight Entree was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite....second. Laurel had six stakes today and in the first of these my choice, Win Win Win was the even money favorite - 2nd, again. Sigh...... Finally got on the board when Mystery Witness won a Maiden Claiming sprint at Gulfstream in their third for trainer Jorge Navarro.
But the 1-2 payoff only got me a little more than $20 despite a triple investment. Still, I'm finally on the board. The Fair Grounds also had several stakes today but the weather there was miserable so I didn't have any action in their schedule turf events until late in the card when I found two runners I thought could run on the sloppy main track. The first stakes event in New Orleans was the Louisiana Futurity for two-year-old colts and Classy John was 3/5 in the program. Looked every bit the part as all three of his career Beyers would beat all the figures earned by the rest of the field. He was 1/9 at post time and ran away as much the best. Didn't make any money, but padded the win stats with a second consecutive victory.
I - and hottie analyst Acacia Courtney - was surprised that track record holder Pay Any Price was NOT the favorite in the Janus Stakes going five furlongs on the turf in Gulfstream's fourth. But the crowd had it right as he was dueled into a fading third finish. Back-to-back third place finishes, first at Laurel and then at Gulfstream preceded a win at Aqueduct when Alisio who was even money in the program and much the best as the 2/5 off-time chalk.
I had two price plays at 5/1 and 6/1 at Laurel and Gulfstream and they ran to their odds (6th and 4th). The East View Stakes for two-year-olds at Aqueduct was next on my sheet. I thought it was pretty wide open but one of my favorite angles in handicapping is a bullet work; a fast bullet work is even better and that was the case when Espresso Shot posted a :59.4 five furlong move for this event. He sat off the pace to the far turn then swept by to win.
The $6.80 payoff, with my double investment led to a payoff of nearly $35. Fourth place finishes with back-to-back even money favorites followed. The second of which was my BEST BET at Gulfstream, a Todd Pletcher first time starter who has a $300K sales grad with John Velazquez on board. A poor break and then a burst to get to third at the demanding distance of seven furlongs was too much to overcome. I thought I had the winner in Gulfstream's Tropical Park Oaks when Andina Del Sur sat the perfect trip behind a 10/1 front runner, but she was just a nose shy on the wire. At Aqueduct I had a pick in their next stakes, the Alex M. Robb going nine furlongs on the main track. I thought Mr. Buff had a good chance to wire the field. He had pressure, got loose and then dug in through the final 100 yards to hang on.
Could have made more money with the fair $7.40 payoff, but I wasn't that confident and so I only had the minimum invested. Next was the Politely from Laurel and Crabcakes was 9-for-15 overall and a superb 7-for-9 at Laurel....at today's three-quarters of a mile she was 6-for-9. Sent off at 3/5 she was much the best on paper. But that's why they run the races because she just didn't fire finishing eight. Huge disappointment as my BET of the Day. In Gulfstream's 9th Holy Helena was the 7/5 favorite and she too could not quite get to the winner on the wire, second. With the weather at the Fair Grounds iffy at best the Woodchopper scheduled for the turf was a "no play" for me unless it was run on the main track. There I thought Mark Casse's Noble Commander could run back to his 3yo promise and upset the field. He was 12/1 as they went into the gate and he coasted wire to wire on the front end. I thought I was cashing for more than $60 and then the final odds flashed up at 7/1. Not complaining about the $16.80 payoff, but......
Missed in the finale of the day, another off-the-turf in New Orleans where my pick, the 7/5 chalk was fourth. It was ironic on the day that I was going to play just the stakes-laden Laurel and Gulfstream cards, but decided late in the week that I might as well play Aqueduct and the Fair Grounds. At Gulfstream I was 2-for-10. I was 0-for at Laurel. But at Aqueduct I was 3-for-4 and at the Fair Grounds, even with the sloppy track I went 3-for-4 as well! So all told I was 8-for-23 (35%) but couldn't make any money.
Sunday December 30
Only four picks at Gulfstream and I had one second. Ironically in that race it was the only short-priced favorite of the day to win, and one of the few for the week. I had a Todd Pletcher horse at a nice 9/2 price and couldn't get the photo in my favor.
Next week is a special 6-day racing schedule with a special New Year's Day card on Tuesday.
Friday December 28
I spent a good part of the day handicapping and again had only four selections that I played on the card - two of them for the minimum. I was a non-threatening fifth with the first bet of the day then was 2nd at 3/5 in the fifth. 4th at 2/1 in the sixth - can a fella buy a winner? Then in the 8th, my last live bet of the day I planned to double the bet on Chad Brown's Icespire. But she was drawing a lot of money and I just had "that feeling." Doubled my own bet to make it prime time and she rolled home to key a $50 payoff and seal a winning day despite going just 1-for-4!
Three more big-priced winners came home. $23 for the opener and $24 in the 2nd to key a nearly $200 daily double; and in the finale the winner paid $51.20.
Saturday December 29: Tropical Park Derby Day
I had a dilemma. Actually I had a double-dilemma. First, I had to make my return to Jenny Craig to get weight back on track this week and I could only get in this morning at 10:20. IF I hurried home I could make it to the races in time for the opener, but it would be close. And even bigger was the fact that today was a BIG college football bowl game day. My Florida Gators were on at noon and then at 4 pm was the first of the two national semi-final games. My plan was to go and stay for the featured Derby and then come home to watch the second half of that first semi-final, skip the hockey game and watch the second semi-final on TV. I would tape the Gator game and if they won I'd watch it tomorrow. But when I got to Jenny Craig I was 20 minutes late even getting in and I knew I'd be lucky if I rushed to get to Gulfstream for the third. Took it as a sign and changed gears.....played all the races at home while watching college football. I was glad I got to see my Gators steamroll Michigan 41-15 and ensure a top-5 position in the final poll I think. From a racing standpoint I had a good "numbers" day as I won my typical 35% and again my wins equaled my 2nd and 3rd place finishes combined (8 - 8) so that I was 1-2-3 in sixteen of twenty-three picks. But the story of the day was that my winners, with two notable exceptions were prohibitive favorites AND both of my best bets didn't win. Right off the bat I was 2nd at 3/1 then 4th at 3/1 and then in the Aqueduct opener Midnight Entree was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite....second. Laurel had six stakes today and in the first of these my choice, Win Win Win was the even money favorite - 2nd, again. Sigh...... Finally got on the board when Mystery Witness won a Maiden Claiming sprint at Gulfstream in their third for trainer Jorge Navarro.
But the 1-2 payoff only got me a little more than $20 despite a triple investment. Still, I'm finally on the board. The Fair Grounds also had several stakes today but the weather there was miserable so I didn't have any action in their schedule turf events until late in the card when I found two runners I thought could run on the sloppy main track. The first stakes event in New Orleans was the Louisiana Futurity for two-year-old colts and Classy John was 3/5 in the program. Looked every bit the part as all three of his career Beyers would beat all the figures earned by the rest of the field. He was 1/9 at post time and ran away as much the best. Didn't make any money, but padded the win stats with a second consecutive victory.
I - and hottie analyst Acacia Courtney - was surprised that track record holder Pay Any Price was NOT the favorite in the Janus Stakes going five furlongs on the turf in Gulfstream's fourth. But the crowd had it right as he was dueled into a fading third finish. Back-to-back third place finishes, first at Laurel and then at Gulfstream preceded a win at Aqueduct when Alisio who was even money in the program and much the best as the 2/5 off-time chalk.
I had two price plays at 5/1 and 6/1 at Laurel and Gulfstream and they ran to their odds (6th and 4th). The East View Stakes for two-year-olds at Aqueduct was next on my sheet. I thought it was pretty wide open but one of my favorite angles in handicapping is a bullet work; a fast bullet work is even better and that was the case when Espresso Shot posted a :59.4 five furlong move for this event. He sat off the pace to the far turn then swept by to win.
The $6.80 payoff, with my double investment led to a payoff of nearly $35. Fourth place finishes with back-to-back even money favorites followed. The second of which was my BEST BET at Gulfstream, a Todd Pletcher first time starter who has a $300K sales grad with John Velazquez on board. A poor break and then a burst to get to third at the demanding distance of seven furlongs was too much to overcome. I thought I had the winner in Gulfstream's Tropical Park Oaks when Andina Del Sur sat the perfect trip behind a 10/1 front runner, but she was just a nose shy on the wire. At Aqueduct I had a pick in their next stakes, the Alex M. Robb going nine furlongs on the main track. I thought Mr. Buff had a good chance to wire the field. He had pressure, got loose and then dug in through the final 100 yards to hang on.
Could have made more money with the fair $7.40 payoff, but I wasn't that confident and so I only had the minimum invested. Next was the Politely from Laurel and Crabcakes was 9-for-15 overall and a superb 7-for-9 at Laurel....at today's three-quarters of a mile she was 6-for-9. Sent off at 3/5 she was much the best on paper. But that's why they run the races because she just didn't fire finishing eight. Huge disappointment as my BET of the Day. In Gulfstream's 9th Holy Helena was the 7/5 favorite and she too could not quite get to the winner on the wire, second. With the weather at the Fair Grounds iffy at best the Woodchopper scheduled for the turf was a "no play" for me unless it was run on the main track. There I thought Mark Casse's Noble Commander could run back to his 3yo promise and upset the field. He was 12/1 as they went into the gate and he coasted wire to wire on the front end. I thought I was cashing for more than $60 and then the final odds flashed up at 7/1. Not complaining about the $16.80 payoff, but......
Missed in the finale of the day, another off-the-turf in New Orleans where my pick, the 7/5 chalk was fourth. It was ironic on the day that I was going to play just the stakes-laden Laurel and Gulfstream cards, but decided late in the week that I might as well play Aqueduct and the Fair Grounds. At Gulfstream I was 2-for-10. I was 0-for at Laurel. But at Aqueduct I was 3-for-4 and at the Fair Grounds, even with the sloppy track I went 3-for-4 as well! So all told I was 8-for-23 (35%) but couldn't make any money.
Sunday December 30
Only four picks at Gulfstream and I had one second. Ironically in that race it was the only short-priced favorite of the day to win, and one of the few for the week. I had a Todd Pletcher horse at a nice 9/2 price and couldn't get the photo in my favor.
Next week is a special 6-day racing schedule with a special New Year's Day card on Tuesday.
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