December 22 - 23
We returned from our magical European river cruises with Viking Cruises, having sailed down the Danube River from Passau, Germany to Budapest, Hungary with just THE most ideal holiday weather. It was just an amazing adventure. Got home Wednesday evening and left Friday morning for Orlando to spend the pre-Christmas weekend with our grandson and his parents. But before we left I handicapped the Gulfstream cards for the weekend. On Saturday I had seven selections from the twelve race card. The opener was a maiden claimer for 2yo and while there were several MSW droppers, Quizzical Cajun had earned a far superior number facing $50K runners last time out. Sent off as the 3/2 favorite he dueled through the far turn and into the lane before weakening to be third. In the second race I liked Dull Knife in an entry level allowance on the grass for juveniles. In all the years I've handicapped I don't think I've EVER seen top trainer Todd Pletcher take over a Euro import and run them on the grass like this. He went off as the second choice at 3/1, leaving the gate a step slow and then racing evenly to finish fourth. The third was a Maiden Special sprint for two-year-old fillies and the DRF early line made a filly with experience the even money choice, but jockey Luca Panici was only 1-for-31 since the Championship Meet opened. I instead liked Todd Pletcher's filly, Orra Moor who was a daughter of champion Orb and had been well prepped for her debut. Like my pick in the opener she was off a beat slow, but when jockey John Velazquez urged her to pick up the pace on the turn she responded and swung three-wide on the move. She collared the DRF favorite and drew clear as handily the best. The crowd wasn't fooled, as I wasn't, sending off Orra Moor as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite and the DRF choice as the third choice at 9/2.
I had doubled the bet so I cashed for $15 with my first winner of the weekend. After passing the fourth I had a choice in the fifth, a cheap $6.25K two-turn event with a first finish at a mile and a sixteenth. Trainer Jorge Navarro does wonders first off the claim and he'd taken Brown's Gap recently. That in and of itself would be a good angle, but this 7yo had multiple wins at GP and at this distance. He looked to be a popular winner on paper. He was third into the far turn and appeared to be working hard, but he was gradually moving on the leaders. He reached them turning for home and in the short stretch he gradually eased clear to provide my second win of the day.
I passed on the sixth and sought my third in a row in an entry level allowance on the turf for older. I don't usually like to bet these kind of races because they are such a mixed bag. But I saw an opportunity to maybe get a bit of a price with Another who was from the Bill Mott barn. In three of his last four starts he'd earned numbers that would beat this field, and this was just the second try for Hall of Fame conditioner Mott. The move to top rider Luis Saez sealed the deal. The crown preferred a Jason Servis runner and allowed Another to leave the gate at better than 3/1. The two of them were in the rear third of the field heading into the far turn when Saez gave the "GO" cue and Another swept by the field and drew off with authority. The nice $8.20 payoff meant I'd cash for over forty dollars on my third consecutive victory! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Another pass in the eighth led me to the "Best" of the day. If you follow my adventures at the races you know that one of my common rants is the DRF linemaker. When I get the past performances more than a day in advance I have to use the "graded entries" from the DRF to get odds. To be fair, there are times when the odds are similar to those in the program. But consider this race.....Bricks and Mortar was entered in this conditioned allowance on the turf by arguably the best turf trainer in North America, Chad Brown; in six turf starts 'Bricks has earned four wins and the two losses were BOTH by less than a length; and both of those losses were at the Gr 3 level behind winners who subsequently won Grade 1 races. Now I'll grant you Bricks and Mortar was coming off a long layoff, but that's a strong win angle for Brown. Knowing all this, can you even imagine any reason to list him at 50/1 as the DRF did? And he was my "BEST" of the day. Jockey Irad Ortiz rode him patiently to the far turn, accelerated to pass horses and reach the leaders inside the furlong marker. In spite of the way the top two APPEARED to be dueling, Ortiz was hand-riding 'Bricks very confidently. As they sprinted through the final 100 yards my pick edged clear was was a solid winner.
With my triple investment I collected more than $40 again! The final pick on the Saturday card came in the featured Grade 3 Mr. Prospector. On paper I thought Todd Pletcher's Coal Front looked much the best. But, I'd seen in some recent analysis online that many thought him vulnerable based on his last when coming off a long layoff and seemingly not firing. Add in that Pletcher rarely uses a race as a "prep" race, but if you viewed that last as such, he looked good, even breaking from post eleven. I thought this even more so the case since that last try was in New York and Pletcher thrives here in South Florida. So, if you assume he was pointing for today, Coal Front would truly be much the best when the real running started. Jockey John Velazquez had him three and four wide through the turn as he pressed the leaders. He was five wide swinging for home and he brushed with Gulfstream analyst Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day, Kroy (who I did NOT like) at the furlong marker and then he found another gear and ran away. FIVE IN A ROW!
The $5.20 payoff was generous in my opinion and I closed out the day by collecting more than $25 on the last winner of the day.
On Sunday I had five picks but four of them were not strong plays. After passing the first two races I found my BEST of the Weekend in an entry level allowance for two-year-olds. One advantage I have since I began playing the races more frequently is you just learn to "know" some things. And one angle that pops up all the time this time of year is a Todd Pletcher two-year-old who flashed talent in the summer, then was put away for many months, and now returns here in So Fla. Such was the case for Federal Reserve. He had debuted last spring at Keeneland going "about seven furlongs" which was similar to today's one-turn mile. He'd won, which had to please his connections who'd laid out $450K at the Keeneland Sales for him! Today he returned for Pletcher-Velazquez and had a bullet work for this. Clever rider Paco Lopez was on the second choice at 5/2 and that one carved out moderate fractions through the far turn. Velazquez looked to have a lot of work to do as Lopez floated the leader out made Federal Reserve rally even wider into the lane. Inside the sixteenth pole Federal Reserve was still second, but then his talent shown through and he wore down the long-time leader in the shadow of the wire!
My prime time selection meant I'd collect almost $30 to start off Sunday's action! Passed the fourth, then missed in the fifth and sixth. Much like Bricks and Mortar on Saturday there was no way that a Todd Pletcher two-year-old like Overdeliver would go off at anything like the 15/1 price offered in the DRF early line. The crowd made him a strong even-money favorite and he responded with an authoritative win - we'll see him next in stakes action I'd think!
Missed in the last of my picks but still, went a strong 2-for-5, 40% for those without a calculator, on the day. And for the first two days back from the big adventure I went 7-for-12. Who can argue with those kind of results and a profit of over $70!
I passed on the sixth and sought my third in a row in an entry level allowance on the turf for older. I don't usually like to bet these kind of races because they are such a mixed bag. But I saw an opportunity to maybe get a bit of a price with Another who was from the Bill Mott barn. In three of his last four starts he'd earned numbers that would beat this field, and this was just the second try for Hall of Fame conditioner Mott. The move to top rider Luis Saez sealed the deal. The crown preferred a Jason Servis runner and allowed Another to leave the gate at better than 3/1. The two of them were in the rear third of the field heading into the far turn when Saez gave the "GO" cue and Another swept by the field and drew off with authority. The nice $8.20 payoff meant I'd cash for over forty dollars on my third consecutive victory! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Another pass in the eighth led me to the "Best" of the day. If you follow my adventures at the races you know that one of my common rants is the DRF linemaker. When I get the past performances more than a day in advance I have to use the "graded entries" from the DRF to get odds. To be fair, there are times when the odds are similar to those in the program. But consider this race.....Bricks and Mortar was entered in this conditioned allowance on the turf by arguably the best turf trainer in North America, Chad Brown; in six turf starts 'Bricks has earned four wins and the two losses were BOTH by less than a length; and both of those losses were at the Gr 3 level behind winners who subsequently won Grade 1 races. Now I'll grant you Bricks and Mortar was coming off a long layoff, but that's a strong win angle for Brown. Knowing all this, can you even imagine any reason to list him at 50/1 as the DRF did? And he was my "BEST" of the day. Jockey Irad Ortiz rode him patiently to the far turn, accelerated to pass horses and reach the leaders inside the furlong marker. In spite of the way the top two APPEARED to be dueling, Ortiz was hand-riding 'Bricks very confidently. As they sprinted through the final 100 yards my pick edged clear was was a solid winner.
With my triple investment I collected more than $40 again! The final pick on the Saturday card came in the featured Grade 3 Mr. Prospector. On paper I thought Todd Pletcher's Coal Front looked much the best. But, I'd seen in some recent analysis online that many thought him vulnerable based on his last when coming off a long layoff and seemingly not firing. Add in that Pletcher rarely uses a race as a "prep" race, but if you viewed that last as such, he looked good, even breaking from post eleven. I thought this even more so the case since that last try was in New York and Pletcher thrives here in South Florida. So, if you assume he was pointing for today, Coal Front would truly be much the best when the real running started. Jockey John Velazquez had him three and four wide through the turn as he pressed the leaders. He was five wide swinging for home and he brushed with Gulfstream analyst Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day, Kroy (who I did NOT like) at the furlong marker and then he found another gear and ran away. FIVE IN A ROW!
The $5.20 payoff was generous in my opinion and I closed out the day by collecting more than $25 on the last winner of the day.
On Sunday I had five picks but four of them were not strong plays. After passing the first two races I found my BEST of the Weekend in an entry level allowance for two-year-olds. One advantage I have since I began playing the races more frequently is you just learn to "know" some things. And one angle that pops up all the time this time of year is a Todd Pletcher two-year-old who flashed talent in the summer, then was put away for many months, and now returns here in So Fla. Such was the case for Federal Reserve. He had debuted last spring at Keeneland going "about seven furlongs" which was similar to today's one-turn mile. He'd won, which had to please his connections who'd laid out $450K at the Keeneland Sales for him! Today he returned for Pletcher-Velazquez and had a bullet work for this. Clever rider Paco Lopez was on the second choice at 5/2 and that one carved out moderate fractions through the far turn. Velazquez looked to have a lot of work to do as Lopez floated the leader out made Federal Reserve rally even wider into the lane. Inside the sixteenth pole Federal Reserve was still second, but then his talent shown through and he wore down the long-time leader in the shadow of the wire!
My prime time selection meant I'd collect almost $30 to start off Sunday's action! Passed the fourth, then missed in the fifth and sixth. Much like Bricks and Mortar on Saturday there was no way that a Todd Pletcher two-year-old like Overdeliver would go off at anything like the 15/1 price offered in the DRF early line. The crowd made him a strong even-money favorite and he responded with an authoritative win - we'll see him next in stakes action I'd think!
Missed in the last of my picks but still, went a strong 2-for-5, 40% for those without a calculator, on the day. And for the first two days back from the big adventure I went 7-for-12. Who can argue with those kind of results and a profit of over $70!
No comments:
Post a Comment