Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Sunshine Millions Week

January 16 - 21

I had a very good week for Sunshine Millions Week, if I do say so myself.  For the week I had fifty-three selections and cashed on twenty-one winners - that's 40% my friends (and had 70% of my picks hit the board).  Considering that I missed with big bets on Saturday, the fact that I lost less than $20 and had an ROI of $1.93 for the week is pretty remarkable at what has to be considered the toughest meet to handicap in the country.  Here's how it all unfolded.....

Wednesday January 16
In the opener for the week I took Wesley Ward's Scribe who'd not been out since March, but he was 33% with long layoff types.  Edged to the front in deep stretch only to be nailed on the wire by a 9/2 closer.  So close.  But then I came right back with back to back winners.  In the third Arch of Troy was my pick in a one mile turf event for non-winners of three lifetime.  The problem with 'Troy was that he HAD already five losses in conditioned company.  But what I liked was that she had always been close, had run well enough under top jockey Luis Saez to take the mount again; and what really appealed to me was that she had a best-of-55 bullet work since her last.  She pressed the pace into the stretch, opened up a length then held on by the narrowest of margins for my first win of the day.  Right back in the fourth with a Todd Pletcher runner.  I found it ironic that this horse had the name, Just Ain't Right because of his last race.  When Kim and I left for our Christmas Markets Cruise on December 11th I had decided that while we were in Europe I would not be handicapping nor playing the races.  Well, at Gulfstream in the winter a Pletcher 3yo maiden is always an automatic $10 WIN bet.  On December 13 while we were in Europe he debuted here in a 3yo maiden event and not only won but paid $14.20 - I would have made nearly $75.  Sigh.  So he was running back today in an entry level allowance.  Dueled from the half mile pole to the wire and was JUST up in time.  OK, now I don't feel so bad about the just miss opener.



Two for three to start the week, and I'm off to a pretty good start.  In the fifth Bill Mott had actually claimed Macgone.  Surged to the front in mid-stretch but was caught, second....sigh.  Ran fourth at 7/2 in another entry level event and then we came to the eighth race, a mile and a sixteenth turf race for three-year-old maiden claimers.  Yes - there was a Pletcher filly, but the problem was there were TWO of them.  I liked Stefanie On Fleek with John Velazquez who somehow was listed at a huge 10/1 price in the program despite dropping in for a first time tag today.  My guess was she was such a price because of the other Pletcher filly Full Swing.  But I didn't like her AT ALL.  She had debuted as the 4/5 favorite and ran second on the turf.  Came back in an off-the-turf event, was the 4/5 favorite again and ran second, again.  In her third start, over the Keeneland grass she was third at 9/5.  Then last time out she was 7th at Churchill at 5/2 odds.  And NONE of those races had speed figures that would lead you to believe she had talent.  Stefanie On Fleek made her move in the lane and ran past the long-time leader, and outfinished another closer......but in mid-stretch Full Swing blew by and won by daylight.  My third runner-up finish of the day.  The ninth was a second level event going a one-turn mile.  Both the top program choices had two career wins.  But while Tweeting (8/5) had a resume of 15/2-3-3 Bill Mott's Golden Award (2/1) was lightly raced and only 5/2-2-0.  And what I really liked was "her story."  Mott next to never has them ready to go at first asking, so the fact that she didn't run well in her debut wasn't a surprise, but the fact she was favored was.  Came back to run second twice and then dominated maidens two back.  And then last out she won again over entry level runners.  She looked to have much more upside and perhaps ability that Tweeting.  The two of them ran together in 2nd and 3rd separated by less than a length behind the 12/1 front runner to the far turn, and then they accelerated.  Tweeting took a brief narrow lead and then Golden Award kicked into another gear and drew off by a widening 3 1/2 lengths.

The crowd apparently interpreted the past performances the way I did because Tweeting was 5/2 while Golden Award was 4/5.  Still, cashed for nearly $20 on my third win today!  In the finale of the Wednesday card it was a maiden claiming event on the turf.  It was for older, but Unoffensive was JUST the kind of runner that had made last winter my best ever.  A Todd Pletcher turf entry who was going off at a price with top jockey Luis Saez up.  It was a dicey situation to interpret because the connections had thrown down $300K to buy this colt, and as a 4yo he'd not run yet.  Then for his debut he's entered in a modest $20K maiden claiming event?  That does NOT speak much for his perceived talent!  But, hey, these are the kind you can make some money on so I doubled the bet!  There were only two first time starters in the field and the other was 50/1 as he led them into the far turn.  But Unoffensive was tracking in third and looked ready to roll.  Saez asked for run and he came to the leader, but that one, despite the odds was not done yet!  They dueled to the furlong pole before Unoffensive edged clear (well worth noting that the 50/1 hung on for second keying a $2 exacta for $275!).

And the best part, Unoffensive went off at better than 4/1 so I cashed for over $50 to close out an excellent 4-for-8 first day of the week!

Thursday January 17
At any other track, at any other time of the year I would have liked Bill Mott's Country House in the third, a maiden special for three-year-olds.  But this is Gulfstream and Bebeau was a Todd Pletcher colt who had been second in his debut behind what appeared to be a promising Chad Brown winner.  So that was the bet.  Country House should not have been expected to run well in debut, as a Mott trainee and was bet accordingly when leaving the gate at 49/1!  But he was second and earned a huge Beyer figure of 85.  Now you see why I'd have pounded him at any other meet.  Bebeau was 2/1 and fourth as they approached the turn.  But then didn't go on with it.  Country House lingered at the back then blew by going last to first and drawing off impressively as the 4/5 favorite.  Sigh.....The fourth race today was an entry level allowance going a mile on the turf.  If you follow my analysis you know that typically when there isn't a pick, then there is very little that I comment about in the race commentary.  But most often when there IS a bet, there's a pretty detailed description.  Not the case here.  I remarked that it was a very weak group and that Supercommittee was coming out of NYRA allowance for Chad Brown; was a Klaravich Stables runner and got Javier Castellano.  Take the connections and the weak field, and that's the bet.  Period.  She sat fourth as the 6/5 favorite behind the 7/5 second choice to the turn.  Moved up willing and then drew off handily.  I've got my first winner of the day!

Cashed for nearly $25 - it's shaping up to be a good week!  The sixth was a six furlong claiming event for non-winners of three lifetime and it was a pretty weak collection of "sprinters" I thought.  But Go Go Jak was lightly raced with only four starts, had finished first or second in three of those AND was first off the claim for owner Frank Calabrese with top rider Luis Saez.  The class plunge and the trainers 0-for record at the meet were a bit worrisome.  But last Saturday I missed a 6/1 winner because the trainer was 0-for; not today.  Tripled the bet and 'Jak looked like a Breeders' Cup Champion facing allowance foes as he drew off by more than a dozen widening lengths and finished under wraps.

One last pick in the 7th, a 3yo MSW five furlong sprint on the turf.  Standup was a Todd Pletcher firster with Saez up listed at 5/1 odds.  Have to take those kind!  Was bothered somewhat at the start and ninth of the ten.  Wide off the turn but absolutely flying at 4/1 odds, but just couldn't get to the 9/1 winner who'd had a much better trip.  Tab Standup for the next time out!

Friday January 18
Only five selection seemed worth wagering on today.  Passed the opening two and in the third it was a maiden claiming event for older runners going a one-turn mile.  Typically I do NOT like to bet on runners who are coming back facing someone they ran against last time out.  But in this case I thought that Underestimate truly deserved a play over Mo Moxie for a variety of reasons.  It didn't seem like either had had a "troubled trip" by looking at the pps, so I watched the replay.  And again I wouldn't say one deserved an upgrade on trip alone, but I did think that maybe Underestimate would run better if NOT pinned down inside.  And I liked the fact that Mo Moxie had gotten a clean run to rally but had not ever caught Underestimate.  Never been a big believer in weight as a handicapping factor, but it couldn't hurt that Mo Moxie was picking up six pounds while Underestimate picked up a single pound - go figure.  Underestimate dueled three wide, got to the front and when Mo Moxie came with her run she again could not get by.  Cashed for nearly $25 to start the day!

Missed on two small bets then closed the day with two Todd Pletcher runners.  Again, like the Standup race yesterday, I'd probably have bet on Bourbon War if this 3yo mile and a sixteenth entry level allowance had been any where else.  He'd run well in the Remsen and was highly regarded.  But Cutting Humor was a Pletcher runner who had been purchased for $400K and had John Velazquez today.  Has to be the bet.  He was the 2/1 second choice and positioned a couple lengths in front of Bourbon of War into the turn.  But that one was much too good and drew off as the 3/2 favorite - has such gotten some publicity as a possible Derby runner.  In the finale we were going a mile on the turf in maiden claiming company.  River of Fire had debuted in a $20K event at GPW - that's NOT a good sign; and showed little.  Also, NOT a good sign.  But then ran fourth here for the same tag.  Ok, improvement.  Added blinkers today which almost certainly had led to a sharp bullet work.  Might be ready to fire at a nice price I thought.  Had drawn the rail and that became a problem when steadied sharply entering the first turn.  And even fourth to close the day.

Saturday January 19

It's Sunshine Millions Day and I had picks from five different tracks as I headed out to the races today on a beautiful Saturday afternoon!  From a handicapping point of view, it was a VERY good day as I picked ten winners from twenty-four selections - nearly 50%.  But the fact that not one but two "big bet" selections failed to win cost me a profitable day.  Click HERE to read the write-up on the 2019 Sunshine Millions Day experience!

Sunshine Millions Day Highlights


Sunday January 20
Overnight rains moved all the turf races to the main track and that led to scratches of two of my five selections today.  In the second it was a slow collection of 3yo maiden claimers.  But My Own Mo had earned back-to-back 43 Beyers - nothing to write home about for sure - and those numbers stood out over the numbers posted by the others (34, 8, -0, 22, and 16).  And the two first timers didn't look like much.  Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 choice he was close to the turn and then faded, finishing an off-the-board fourth.  In the last two plays of the day I ran third with the DRF BEST of the day, who I did like enough to put the minimum on and then third again with a Todd Pletcher returnee.  Impact Player had been highly regarded last year but had not run since disappointing in the Hutcheson here last winter.  Near the back early John Velazquez had to work on him from the get go and it was a struggle to get a share of the minor awards.

Monday January 21
A special holiday card closed out the week.  I hadn't even thought about there being live racing today until Friday and when I checked out the entries on Brisnet it looked like the kind of card that might produce two or three selections.  But in going through the past performances I found SEVEN runners worthy of a wager.  And in surfing through the racing news on Sunday I found that Santa Anita was running a graded stakes today with a runner who looked like a "free bingo square" in the multiple race wagers.  It was a nw3L turf sprint and there was little NOT to like about Awsum Roar.  While the rest of the field had languished at this $16K 3L level previously, 'Roar had only been in ONE three-lifetime event, and that had been for a $35K tag at the strong Belmont fall meet.  In addition, that race had been six furlongs in distance and after five furlongs - today's distance - she had been in front.  Now toss in the best turf sprint trainer in the country, Jason Servis, with hot-riding Irad Ortiz and well, you get the picture.  But when I opened the replays I was surprised that she was bet down all the way to 1/5 odds.  Came rolling like a woman among girls and drew off widening lengths without ever being asked to run.

Missed with the 9/5 favorite in the third who ran on evenly.  In the fourth you COULD have made the case to load up on what was certain to be the short-priced favorite, Breaking Bread.  ALL of her races had been in allowance or stakes company with one exception back in June.  She was dropping out of the Grade 3 Rampart to run in this starter optional claimer that she only qualified for because of that June try.  She'd gone from a mile on the slop to a sprint last fall and won, and today was going from a mile in the slop in the Rampart to today's six furlong sprint.  AND top rider Luis Saez was riding for Jorge Navarro who is very clever with spotting his horses where they not only should win but where they should dominate.  For me I just didn't want to load up on what I knew would be a short priced favorite - unlike the opener where I was surprised Awesum Roar was so short of a price.  Breaking Bread pressed the leader into the turn while obviously being loaded to run.  When Saez gave her the green light the rest were just running for second money.  Drew off sharply by a half a dozen widening lengths.

Missed in an entry level allowance with a runner who had fired a big bullet work (4th at 5/2) then Chad Brown's Summer in Saratoga looked like the best of the first timers in a 3yo MSW on the turf.  She was!  But three runners with experience (5/1, 50/1, and 2/1) finished ahead of her belated rallying fourth.  Now if you follow me, especially here at Gulfstream you KNOW that any Pletcher 3yo is an automatic play and 99.9% of the time a double investment.  On December 7th Todd Pletcher had sent out C Major on the turf and so I doubled the investment.  Paid $9.20 and I cashed for nearly $50.  Today he was running back in a Starter Allowance.  As I looked over the race I really didn't think he was a strong win play; and let's be honest, the Pletcher races that are "automatic" are almost always 3yo maiden events, this was 3yo winners.  Still, listed at 8/1 in the program AND Luis Saez gets on?  But I don't want to play blindly, Pletcher doesn't win ALL races he has a horse in (though it may seem like it, especially when you do NOT bet him).  Back and forth, finally decided I would be so dismayed if C Major won at a price and I didn't play, so I compromised and bet the minimum.  He pressed the lead, edged to the front and in mid-stretch was confronted by a 4/1 rival who had all the momentum.  But Saez worked hard on him and C Major was all heart!

Oh that's right, and check the price out!  Of course in hindsight NOW I wish I'd gone with the standard $10 play because I'd have cashed for nearly $75!  But I'll take the more than $35 payout.  Three wins already and I really thought that Fierce Scarlett in the 9th, my last GP play was a very likely winner.  Lightly raced filly from Chad Brown's barn she had been the favorite last time out in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland.  While she didn't win, she was within five of the winner that day.  Didn't like the outside draw but IF she were good enough to be favored in a Gr 2, and she WAS from the Chad Brown barn, I thought she'd be good enough here despite the post.  She was tenth of eleven early and then was FLYING through the lane.  According to the results comments she switched leads back and forth, running greenly which HAD to have cost her through the lane.  JUST missed to the nearly wire-to-wire winner at 12/1.  So for the day at Gulfstream I'd gone three for seven and had made money on the day.  But wait!  I still had the Grade 3 Megahertz Stakes from Santa Anita.  We were at the Panthers game - and enjoying ice cream in a suite no less - when I was able to pull up the replay.  Vasilika had been claimed for $40K about a year and a half ago and had rattled off eight straight wins to push her earnings to more than $800K.  She'd run in a Grade 1 last time and had the winning streak snapped, but today she was back in a Grade 3 event, going her favorite distance of one mile and if she had any pace help at all she looked to be a winner.  As I watched the replay I was encouraged that what had started out as a loose-on-the-lead front runner was being challenged by two others as they sped down the backside.  Vasilika was patiently handled and began to pick off runners as they approached the far turn.  She had all the momentum but was wide while circling the field on the turn.  About five from the front when heads turned for home she now noticeably found another gear and blew by under a confident hand ride.  My double investment returned $16 and I now had a 4-for-8 Monday with a profit of almost $25!  Go me!


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