January 9 - 13: Tropical Turf Week
The week was far short of what I became accustomed to last winter, but overall wasn't a "bad" week of racing as I had two winning days from the five days. Just not BIG winning days. Keep plugging along as you never know when that BIG DAY is coming.
Wednesday January 9
In the week's opener I had mixed feelings about Alpha Orionis. It was a maiden 3yo race and he was a Pletcher trainee, so duh. But he'd debuted in MSW company and broken slowly and finished sixth of seven in his debut. Right away today he was PLUNGING to maiden $12.5K, obviously the connections were giving up on their expensive $325K purchase....that can't be good. Still, Pletcher with top rider Luis Saez. Right to the front with a clear advantage into the lane, caught on the wire in a photo finish.....I'm on the inside, obviously:
No bet until the 5th. Again my pick, Bluesky Kitten right to the front until caught in deep stretch by a first time starter at 43/1. Sigh. My horse was a no-show in the 7th at 4/1 and my final pick in the 9th scratched.
Thursday January 10
The opener today was a starter optional claiming event on the turf and Uncle B looked to be the favorite coming off a win in the Claiming Crown Emerald with a purse of over $100K, but with conditions for a $25K starter. So it wasn't REALLY a big class drop, but still, after winning a big purse like that I'd think he'd be in a richer spot that this. So I only went with the minimum play. He was confidently handled inside to the lane, swung out and drew off under Irad Ortiz as the 7/5 favorite.
The third was a maiden claiming event but Stronger Kat looked to have appeal going first off the claim for owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Saffie Joseph. Again Irad Ortiz was up. Pressed on the lead through the opening quarter then he kissed the field a pleasant Thursday afternoon as he opened up by larger and larger margins with each passing pole, finishing some 9+ clear of the runner-up in the end.
The rest of the day, disappointing. Finished fifth as the 3/2 favorite in the third with Pretty Shea D despite the link to my sweetie former student Christy Shade; in the 6th A Bit Of Both was the prohibitive 1/9 favorite - second, not even close. And in the ninth Todd Pletcher's Quasar Moon was third as the 8/5 favorite with Luis Saez. Two-for-five is 40% but both winners had the minimum, sigh......
Friday January 11
Finally a winning day! In the opener I was third as the 5/2 second choice. The third was a "beaten" claiming event with conditions that read, ".....for 4yo and up which have never won three races or have not won a race since July 31....." Well, lo and behold Royal Asscher was a SIX-time winner and the last win came on July 27th! Tracked the leaders into the stretch and then seemed to "shift gears" and blew by to draw off as the even money favorite!
The fourth was my "day-maker" though I use the term loosely. Joy of Treasure was my pick. First she was dropping from MSW to maiden claiming, but even better. Of the thirty-eight numbers earned by the rest of the field three would beat the LAST THREE she'd earned. Looked awfully good to me so I doubled the bet. She was tenth and last into the far turn and then began to roll. Six wide into the lane she was flying and was up in time.
She was the favorite but the $5.20 payoff meant I'd collect almost $30 and that ensured a profit for the day because there weren't any "big bets" on the day. I was third at 5/1 in the eighth and last at 5/2 in the finale. Again, 2-for-5 but today I finished in the black. Maybe it's an omen of a big day tomorrow when I'll be on track!
January 12: Tropical Turf Day
I had high hopes today and picks from multiple tracks on my three-page selection sheet. I wasn't surprised or disappointed when my pick in the first didn't win at 7/1 odds, thought it was worth a shot. WAS surprised when my pick in the opener at Aqueduct weakened to be 2nd in the opener at Aqueduct at even money, sigh. Passed the second at Gulfstream but had a Pletcher maiden in the third. The problem was Firm had been 2/1 in his debut at Tampa - that alone was a "hmmm" moment. And that he didn't win was another. But the big red flag was being brought here and plunging from that Maiden Special debut to a meager $12.5K claiming event. Obviously had no intention of keeping the runner, but was he simply too good with Luis Saez up for the competition. Decided he was and he was clear by daylight and cruising at the 1/8th pole before having to work hard to finish to the wire. But hey, a winner is a winner!
I passed both the third and the fourth at Gulfstream as well. And THAT proved to be prophetic and the "story of the day." In the second - remember I'd passed - my top choice won, at 3/1 odds. In the fourth, my top choice won, at 6/1 odds! And in the fifth my top choice won at 5/1 odds. You can check the analysis to see why I didn't bet them - especially in the fourth, who would figure a 4-for-69 rider would win for a barn that was 0-for-39 at the meet? You KNOW how the rest of the day went, right?
Sigh.....Fortunately while that was playing out I had two wins at Laurel. In their 2nd, a maiden claiming event the 3rd and 4th place runners from a $16K event were running again for a dime. But I thought Malabar could be the upset special going for the leading trainer at Laurel who was winning at a 27% clip overall and 36% with second time starters. Right to the front and long gone. AND the price was a generous $8.40!
The third was the first of the multiple stakes events in Maryland, the What A Summer Stakes. Here Late Nite Pow Wow looked to be a prohibitive favorite. She was 9-for-10 lifetime and that included a win here when shipping in from her Charles Town base. She made very short work of the overmatched rivals and scored as my Laurel BEST BET.
After a third at Aqueduct I had my first pick at the Fair Grounds. It was a state-bred second allowance sprint and the favorite Shakopee Town had beaten state-bred allowance runners, OPEN stakes company and just missed in an OPEN second level allowance. Dropping off of close tries in stakes company she figured much the best. The prohibitive favorite pressed to the turn then ran away at a very small price.
That gave me four winners on the first page of my selections and I thought I was bound for a big day! Instead I went on a seven race skid - did have two seconds, one at a big 8/1 price. Finally we arrived at the fifth at the Fair Grounds, a maiden claiming turf sprint. I thought Milk Chocolate looked good on the drop. She had just missed on the lead at Monmouth but I wrote in my analysis that from the outside draw if I were jockey Joe Bravo I'd let the #1 take the lead to the turn while waiting patiently mid-pack and then taking over. Exactly what happened!
When I'd opened the xpressbet app to watch the race Milk Chocolate was being hammered in the win pool so I upped the bet to $10 and was rewarded for the decision :) The two features that came next sealed the deal on a less-than-par results. Heart To Heart looked like the lone speed in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf at Gulfstream. But when he broke, from post six, he was quickly last. Rated nicely in mid-pack, surged to the front in the stretch but faded to third as the even money favorite. Rating is not his game, speed is and I knew right away I was in trouble. Then in Aqueduct's Say Florida Sandy Stakes Gold For the King was biding his time on the rail to mid-turn, then was hemmed in. No where to go into the lane he tried to split horses, but was squeezed and checked. Rallied belatedly when diving to the inside for third, but it was too late. Sigh.....
Sunday January 13
Today's card mirrored most of the rest of the week - hard to find anything to really hang your hat on. I had five picks but one scratched. In the second I liked Take Command in an entry level event for sophomores. He'd run lights out in his debut here then was thrown to the wolves in the Florida Sire Stakes. A similar story outlined Blue Steel who won his second start then nothing in his Grade 2 try. But he'd not run well in his debut AND was running here for the first time where at least Take Command had experience locally. He vied for command early, opened up into the lane then withstood the late charge of the 12/1 runner-up.
And the best part was he paid a nice $7.20 so I cashed for $36 and that made me a profitable winner for the day, my second winning day of the week, but with only 1-for-4 in the win averages department.
The third was the first of the multiple stakes events in Maryland, the What A Summer Stakes. Here Late Nite Pow Wow looked to be a prohibitive favorite. She was 9-for-10 lifetime and that included a win here when shipping in from her Charles Town base. She made very short work of the overmatched rivals and scored as my Laurel BEST BET.
After a third at Aqueduct I had my first pick at the Fair Grounds. It was a state-bred second allowance sprint and the favorite Shakopee Town had beaten state-bred allowance runners, OPEN stakes company and just missed in an OPEN second level allowance. Dropping off of close tries in stakes company she figured much the best. The prohibitive favorite pressed to the turn then ran away at a very small price.
That gave me four winners on the first page of my selections and I thought I was bound for a big day! Instead I went on a seven race skid - did have two seconds, one at a big 8/1 price. Finally we arrived at the fifth at the Fair Grounds, a maiden claiming turf sprint. I thought Milk Chocolate looked good on the drop. She had just missed on the lead at Monmouth but I wrote in my analysis that from the outside draw if I were jockey Joe Bravo I'd let the #1 take the lead to the turn while waiting patiently mid-pack and then taking over. Exactly what happened!
When I'd opened the xpressbet app to watch the race Milk Chocolate was being hammered in the win pool so I upped the bet to $10 and was rewarded for the decision :) The two features that came next sealed the deal on a less-than-par results. Heart To Heart looked like the lone speed in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf at Gulfstream. But when he broke, from post six, he was quickly last. Rated nicely in mid-pack, surged to the front in the stretch but faded to third as the even money favorite. Rating is not his game, speed is and I knew right away I was in trouble. Then in Aqueduct's Say Florida Sandy Stakes Gold For the King was biding his time on the rail to mid-turn, then was hemmed in. No where to go into the lane he tried to split horses, but was squeezed and checked. Rallied belatedly when diving to the inside for third, but it was too late. Sigh.....
Sunday January 13
Today's card mirrored most of the rest of the week - hard to find anything to really hang your hat on. I had five picks but one scratched. In the second I liked Take Command in an entry level event for sophomores. He'd run lights out in his debut here then was thrown to the wolves in the Florida Sire Stakes. A similar story outlined Blue Steel who won his second start then nothing in his Grade 2 try. But he'd not run well in his debut AND was running here for the first time where at least Take Command had experience locally. He vied for command early, opened up into the lane then withstood the late charge of the 12/1 runner-up.
And the best part was he paid a nice $7.20 so I cashed for $36 and that made me a profitable winner for the day, my second winning day of the week, but with only 1-for-4 in the win averages department.
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