Hal's Hope Week

February 21 - 24

While I actually have done the numbers before, I often say to people when talking about my handicapping, that no matter what the time frame.....a day, a week, a month, a season, or over the span of some 25,000 races since I began keeping detailed records.....I am as consistent as the rising sun that I score in and around 35% winners.  And that if I have a hot streak, I WILL come back down to my numbers over that time frame, and conversely if I go on a skid I WILL have a strong run to bring them back up.  And this explains the week.  After a red hot start to the week, I had a just below average Saturday, then tailed off Sunday to bring the week's totals to 58/22-9-3, which is a nice 37.9% winners.  Funny, eh?

Wednesday February 20
The first day of the racing week was a very formful week and I attribute a lot of statistical success to days like today.  In this handicapping game you can play for value and to make money, or - in my opinion be realistic - play for the fun of the game and try to pick the winners.  Then you let the chips fall where they may and understand that like all entertainment it comes at a cost.  But the advantage to handicapping for entertainment is that sometimes, and if you're good at it more times than not, you will get some if not all your money back.  That doesn't happen when you travel, go to the movies, go out to eat, etc.  Today's racing card seemed to have several races where the winners were pretty clear cut, and everyone would know it.  The one thing "different" for me today was that I was conservative with my money management because while the winners seemed likely, I wasn't about to risk a lot often to win a little overall.  After a pass in the first race it seemed pretty obvious in the second that Maximum Security would run his unbeaten record to three in a row for the hottest barn on the grounds, Jason Servis (46%).  Not like he needed any statistical advantage, but Maximum Security had nearly paired figures in his first two wins (83-81) and just looked tons the best.  Right to the front and took off willingly with the final margin noted in the charts of 18 1/4 lengths.  YOWZA.  No wonder that later in the week I read that he's being considered for the Derby trail.

Listed at 3/5 in the program you KNEW we wouldn't make any money, strictly a "I picked the winner" kind of selection.  Like the opener, the third and fourth were races I didn't like bringing us to the fifth, a 3yo claiming event for turf sprinters.  Two ways to go here, much like with Maximum Security's race.....either you're in on the favorite or you pass.  Of the eight lined up to take on Honolulu Express, he'd beaten four of them and the other four just didn't figure in the outcome.  I'd have upped the investment like Maximum Security since he was on a 4-for-5 streak at this distance and class level in the last two with hot riding Irad Ortiz up.  But he was moving into a new barn which didn't have good numbers.  It's the horse that runs the race, but this would be just the kind of circumstance you'd say "go figure" afterwards, so I only went for the minimum play.  Ortiz patiently handled him near the back, made his move three-wide and blew by to edge clear by daylight late.  And I'm two-for-two.

In the next The Mighty Judge looked every bit as overwhelming a favorite and was listed at 4/5 in the program.  BUT these were maiden claimers for a basement tag and the fact that he was the DRF's Mike Welsch's "Best" didn't influence me because I rarely like those as much as he apparently does.  Again it was play the chalk or watch.  I went with the minimum and he was a fading fourth.  Todd Pletcher's False Info was the 9/5 favorite in the seventh and he got one of M-A-N-Y questionable rides by jockey Javier Castellano this week.  Sped to a big lead early going way too fast, then collapsed late.  The eighth was another 3yo MSW on the grass but this time Beautiful Lover looked very logical.  She'd debuted last time for Chad Brown and got to the front in the stretch, only to be gunned down by her stablemate who blew by from the back.  Today with second race improvement she looked talented enough to win in spite of how Castellano would ride her.  Moved three wide on the turn, opened up and was CLEARLY the best as she drew off handily.  Three for five on the day!

The last bet of the day was the one "gamble" I had.  Band of Angels was sent out in a turf sprint by Jorge Navarro and she sported a 6-for-13 lifetime resume, including four of six at this sprint distance.  She was on a four-race streak heading into her December 30th race and that's where the handicapping got dicey.  True, as the comments read, she had clipped heels and been in tight.  But in watching the replay even if she'd had a clean run I didn't think she'd have won that race.  Was she tailing off?  Two questions for today - would she be patiently handled, because if she got into a speed duel she would NOT win; and second, if ridden patiently would she produce her "A" game or "B" game - the former would result in a dominant win, the latter an also-ran finish.  Sometimes you "see" the race and sometimes it just unfolds differently.  She broke right on the money and immediately was clear, all alone on the front end.  It was over before they even hit the far turn as Band of Angels ran comfortably in front to the wire.

Finished the day 4-for-6 and had a tidy little profit for the day!

Oh it was a great day today!  Before Kim's dad passed away the plan had been for last weekend I'd be in Arkansas with my buddy Jim Anderson.  We'd heard from my good friend John Baird - who travels more than I do if you can believe it - that he and his wife Kim would be in Fort Lauderdale for one day, Thursday Feb 21st and could we get together for dinner.  I had initially told him that the plan couldn't be better because I was scheduled to fly back home late on the 18th and we had plans for the 20th to see our great friends Sue & Dan Reynolds on the 20th, then we were leaving for Orlando on the 22nd!  But with the way it worked out I now had the day and evening to myself.  Well, playing into this was that our Florida Panthers hockey team played eleven home games this month and we were looking forward to seeing a lot of those.  I knew I'd miss a couple with my Mom in town for a week, but with the out-of-town services I had been to only two games of the first seven....and I knew that I'd be missing at least one more of the home events.  So with all this in play I messaged John on Wednesday and asked if perhaps we could meet for lunch instead of dinner.  He said that would be great and then he told me they were staying at the Hollywood Diplomat hotel.  I googled it's location and discovered it was 2.9 miles from Gulfstream!  I told him that he couldn't have picked a better spot and that I'd make a day of it by going to the races after we met.  But I added they could gladly join me if they liked, but my car was a two-seater.  He talked it over with "his Kim" and it was decided that I'd pick him up and we would have lunch at Gulfstream and spend the day there.  I then said that I'd understand if he couldn't but I'd enjoy keeping him with me all day and after the races we could head back to the house, grab something to eat and then go to the hockey game together and then I would be willing to drive him back to the hotel late that night.  His wife said to GO FOR IT and so the plans were made.  Could not have come at a better time with me being alone for two weeks.  We thoroughly enjoyed spending nearly the entire day together.  I left the house at about 10:30 am and didn't get back until after midnight!  The only "negative" to the day was we didn't have a big winning day at the races and the Panthers collapsed in the third period to lose a close one.  Still, a great day with a great friend.  Before we go through the racing recap let me up front and honest about a decision I made.  Because we were spending the day at the races I decided to pick races at Laurel on a "just for fun" basis.  Sure, I would have counted them if they'd added to the winning totals but I told myself that these weren't "real" handicapping picks.  The selections from Maryland basically cost us our Gulfstream profits as I was a solid 3-for-7 at GP by the Sea (that's over 40% for those without calculators!)  In the opener I liked Todd Pletcher's Divide - well, I didn't LIKE him but as I told John, I wasn't about to let another Pletcher runner get away at a price.  Sixth at 4/1.  In the second it was like so many of the races yesterday where Gran Bonita Chica was 3/5 in the program and figured to be hammered.  But like Honolulu Express yesterday she was moving to a new barn.  The DRF showed 11% first off the claim but the "Closer Look" said it was 26% first off the claim HERE.  With 36 of the 37 Beyers earned by the rest of the field not good enough to beat her last three winning races I doubled the bet.  Sent off as a prohibitive 1-2 favorite she tracked in third to the turn then stopped like she was shot, finishing fifth of six beaten double digit lengths.  Wow.  In the third Kaylie's Girl was another one of "those favorites" but she was going for a barn who DID have the numbers.  In fact I remarked in my analysis that trainer Gilberto Zerpa may as well have asked the racing secretary to put together a race where NO ONE could compete with his first-off-the-claim filly.  These were a BAD lot.  And he was 48% first off the claim, 44% with jockey Emisael Jaramillo.  She was a miniscule 1-9 at post time and burst to the front, in complete control to the final furlong.  But then you could noticeably see not only was she tiring but the 5/1 second choice was gobbling up ground two strides to one.....where's the wire!

Held on and John and I couldn't have cared less that we only got paid $2.20 for every $2 bet, it was a winner!  In the fourth I had anticipated back-to-back short-priced winners so "track logic" said the favorite may go down here.  I liked Shug McGaughey's Fast Talking who was a big 8/1 in the program to upset this maiden special sprint for older.  Sure enough, under Jose Ortiz he came roaring up as they turned for home and drew off while paying a generous $10.80 - wish I'd upped the bet in anticipation of making a little cash!

We walked over to the Yardhouse and had lunch which didn't take long and we were back in our seats for the fifth.  Tell Me A Story went off at 7/2 - bet down from his 10/1 program odds - and led to deep stretch before being caught....best of the rest second.  Biz Notes ran for Todd Pletcher in the fifth, but I was skeptical because Joe Bravo was up instead of the regular Pletcher riders.  Still, wasn't about to let him pay a price without me.  Went off at 7/2 and was a fading fifth.  In the last race we watched live, the seventh I really should have upped the bet even more than I did.  As I explained to John, every winter there's one or two horses with this same kind of story.  The conditions of the race and the circumstances just are a perfect fit.  The conditions read, ".....for runners who've raced at Gulfstream since December 1st and haven't finished first, second, or third since that race...." - I've NEVER seen conditions like that.  To be fair, several fit those conditions but when put into perspective to his last couple of races he was a solid play.  As a runner who liked to be on or near the lead.....

.....he'd been in back to back races where the track bias - and we could have an entire discussion about the merits of this being true, or not.  Let me just say at this point that you no longer have to look at the provided track variant number in the DRF past performances because they now have symbols that I've found are pretty reliable.  Check out the key.....

So, if you put together the facts that Franklin Towers was a perfect fit for the conditions, was dropping in class from OPEN $35K claimers to "beaten" $16K claimers,  and that he'd run TWICE in a row against a strong bias, then IF he got a fair track today he was a very likely winner.  Right to the front and was long, LONG gone.  That we got 4/5 was generous.....should have opened up the wallet in retrospect.

We left for home and grabbed a burrito from Tijuana Flats (John had never had a burrito!) and then watched the replay of our final bet - ran a fading fifth at 9/5.  We headed to the game and enjoyed a great evening together.  What a great pal - what a great day!

Thursday February 21:  A Day At The Races Highlights

Friday February 22
I watched the streaming live feed all afternoon while I handicapped for my adventure on track Saturday.  In the opener I backed Todd Pletcher's Adamant, who'd been my BEST of the day when I was on track a few weeks ago with what turned out to be the last time with my father-in-law Ed.  He was JUST up in time so he wasn't a big time play, but I wasn't going to let a Pletcher 3yo get away.  No factor.  In the second it was decision time as it was another 3yo race, a maiden claimer and yes there was a Pletcher runner - but there were TWO of them.  EVERYONE liked the one with experience, Ms. Maximum and she was the prohibitive favorite.  I thought she'd have every chance to win but just didn't like that as a Pletcher runner she'd already lost twice and for a tag.  Instead I went with first time starter Don't Rush.  I waivered in the minutes before post time but then decided I was willing to give up a short priced Pletcher but would be unforgiving if I HAD picked the longer shot and changed my mind.  As the field neared the far turn Ms. Maximum was pulled up!  Oh, how unfortunate for her and her connections but oh-so-fortunate for me!  Don't Rush dueled into the lane then ran away like a typical Pletcher maiden 3yo.  And the best part......she paid a big $9.80 meaning I'd cash for nearly $50 to start off today!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!

In the third we were going two turns on the turf with maiden special three-year-olds.  It's funny - to me at least - about how handicapping is so "esoteric" and it's more than the numbers.  You have to have "a sense" or "a feel" for interpreting the past performances.  I truly believe a lot of my success is due not only to having done this for so long and looked at so many past performances, then watched so many races, but also because I handicap so frequently.  So Wednesday there were a boatload of favorites, and I liked them .... finished four for six on the day.  Today, I didn't like favored Ms. Maximum and I didn't like the obvious experienced runner in the third, Preacher Power.  He'd run four straight races that SHOULD be good enough to win, but had finished 2nd or 3rd in all of them, losing by two lengths, one length, a half length and a head.  Didn't like that he was not showing improvement on the Beyer scale.  So I went with what turned out to be the favorite, Battle of Memphis who had also come close previously.  Today he got Irad Ortiz who's not only hot overall, but scoring at 26% for Casse.  Was four wide from the wide draw into the first turn, then tracked the leaders to the far turn.  Swung up under what looked to be a confident ride and was able to hold everyone safe to the wire.  And I'd had enough confidence to triple the bet so I'd cash for nearly $30!

As I said at the outset today, I was handicapping the races from around the country for Saturday.  And when I opened what I thought were the Saturday races from Tampa I realized I'd inadvertently downloaded TODAY's card.  Before looking through it I went to Brisnet and looked at the morning line and was surprised to see (a) a Todd Pletcher 3yo in an allowance event AND that John Velazquez was in Tampa today with the colt, Spinoff being his ONLY MOUNT OF THE DAY.  Now if Johnny V is travelling to Tampa for a single ride, there must be more to it.  Indeed.  Spinoff had scored in his debut at Gulfstream in June.  Pletcher thought enough of him to ship to Saratoga and run in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.  He was a good third - which would have been a sharp effort in and off itself going first time against winners, but also shipping from a Gulfstream summer maiden win.  But then you note that the winner that day, Call Paul had won back-to-back stakes since then - the latest a runaway win here in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes, and the runner-up had been stakes placed.  The distance of this event, a mile and forty yards seemed to me like the kind of prep you'd use with a 3yo at this time of year to see, maybe just maybe he might be a Derby trail kind of runner.  He sat right behind the front-runner who set insanely fast splits for two turns (22.3 - :45.4) but when asked to take off heading into the far turn he did so willingly.  As they turned for home I thought, "....we'll see now just how good this colt is....."  Instead of having to fight off the closers he widened with every stride and drew off to score by nearly a dozen in an ultra-impressive effort.  Over the next few days I saw several articles about Spinoff being the latest newcomer to the Derby trail!

In the fourth R Limo Joe LOOKED to be a solid favorite and the lone speed, but like Wednesday I thought he was a likely winner but didn't have full confidence.  Went in for the minimum and he stopped badly as the 3/5 favorite.  Typically I am not the best of handicappers with five furlong turf sprints, but this winter I've had a lot more winners because there have been a number of them sent out by Jason Servis, who is THE best turf sprint trainer in the country, AND he's just winning at an incredible rate - 47% as of today.  AND most of them have Irad Ortiz up who is scoring at an insane 52% for Servis here.  How do you go against that?  You don't!  Especially when a runner like Motza Bella who finished second last time with TWO next-out winners behind her.  Servis a big 42% first off the claim, and the fact that he was RAISING her in price from $25K to $50K I saw as a move of confidence.  She dueled early, looked to have plenty left, but after putting away the front-running rival and getting clear into the stretch the :21 and change and :44 and change pace took it's toll and she was all out to hold off not one but two strong finishers.  But she did and with another triple investment I'd won another near $25.

Passed the 7th - ironically I had the winner (at 9/5) as my top choice.  The eighth was a maiden claiming event for $20K with a full field of eleven older runners.  Typically older runners for this price level are a "go figure" group.  But in here, Clear For Action had posted two most recent numbers that were daylight better than 64-of-the-68 combined races by his rivals today.  None of those horses gave any indication of having the ability to reproduce such a number today AND Clear For Action was dropping in class for the very first time from MSW to maiden claiming.  Jose Ortiz on the Ramsey colt looked really good.  I'd have gone in deeper had he not been an older maiden.  Right to the front and once allowed to run just blew the doors off the field by half a dozen widening lengths without being asked for his best.

I missed with my last pick but finished a sharp five for eight on the day with a big profit, thanks to the early Pletcher winner, and now was sitting on a a week's total of 12 wins from 21 selections, a near 60% strike rate!

Saturday February 23

Click HERE to read the stories from today's day at the races!

Saturday February 23 Racing Highlights

Sunday February 24
Well, I knew that at some point my numbers had to return to reality and today happened to be the day.  But I also think I'd have had a much better Sunday if Javier Castellano hadn't been completely clueless in his riding judgement today.  Sigh......  The weather forecast had called for a big chance of rain so I handicapped all the turf races by looking at both dirt and turf potential win selections.  Maybe this unknown factor played into my thinking, I don't know.  But the lone win of the day came in the fifth with favored Chilled Milk.  Ironically while he owned a Double Beyer speed figure advantage all the GP analysts picked against him because he'd run second if FIVE of eight starts.  I went with him, for the minimum, because of the angle.  Drew off by daylight as much the best.

Had two seconds that I thought easily could have been a winner in one if not both and a third from Castellano ridden horses (that one also COULD have won), but hey the numbers had to balance out.  May as well have been today rather than next week as we prepare for the big Fountain of Youth Saturday.

On a side note, I heard from one of my all time favorite former students, Tatiana Sanchez Sunday and she may join me at the races for Fountain of Youth Day.  Obviously, who wouldn't want to spend the day with such a sweetie - and she's studying to be a doctor!

February 23

Saturday February 23

Of all the Saturdays at Gulfstream during the Championship Meet there are few that are not of the "Super Saturday" variety, but this happened to be one of them.  Don't get me wrong, it's always great to be on track during this big time of the year and the racing is always of high quality.  But this was not a star-studded attraction day - nor was it anywhere else nationally.  Still, it's a Saturday, it's a RACING Saturday and that meant I'd be at Gulfstream for a full day of thoroughbred action.  I left the house about 11 and arrived a little before noon, just minutes before first post, but I didn't have anything until the second.  I'd gone back and forth about my outfit - go figure, like (a) anyone will notice, much less care and (b) does it really matter?  Well, for me I like to wear my Gulfstream shirts, but like to add a touch of class to my look on Saturday.  I'd picked an outfit, no GP logo, but changed my mind.  Then changed my mind again and finally with ten minutes until I was leaving I got up and switched my outfit to the original one before leaving.  WOW.

I cashed my one winning ticket I'd had left from Thursday's trip out here with my buddy John Baird and made the first three bets of the day.  In the second at Gulfstream I thought Oh My Warrior going second off the shelf for Georgina Baxter with Irad Ortiz up was the most likely winner in a pretty wide open cheap claimer.  Sat in the back half of the field, off the TV screen to the far turn when he began to rally, weaving through the field as the holes opened.  One last surge between horses and he was in front with fifty yards to go!  SCORE!

Collected nearly fifteen bucks on the first winner on the afternoon.  In the fourth my pick on the turf was Ride To The Sunset and he showed little, running fifth at a big 8/1 price.  The second at Laurel was an interesting story.....when I looked at the race it was oh-so-obvious that the short-priced favorite and winner of this one-turn mile on the dirt would almost certainly be MG Broker.  He'd only been out five times, but ALL FIVE Beyer speed figures would top 36 of the 37 numbers posted by his rivals.  And that one figure that was competitive, not better, had been earned months ago going two turns on the turf by a runner who'd not come close to running that fast since AND was 30/1 in the program today.  So how surprised was I when I opened the page on my xpressbet app to see that MG Broker was NOT the favorite!  And not only was he not the betting favorite he was NOT the favorite in the mult-race wagers or in the daily double payouts.  What is going on?  Am I the one who's way off in his thinking?  I reread my analysis and I had not bothered to even mention another runner.  To be fair MG Broker was bet down to 7/5, but the favorite was even money.  Quickly he was near the front and by the time they hit the turn he was daylight clear.  I could tell - having seen a few races in my lifetime - that the rider was cruising along while the jockeys in the rest of the field were already asking alot of their mounts to try and catch the smooth-running front runner.  As heads turned for home he let out a notch and drew off to win by double digits!  How easy was that?  Guess that the only one who really knew what was going on here was indeed ME!

Right back in the fourth at Gulfstream where I liked the 7/5 program favorite Mystery Witness.  At first glance you'd wonder "WHY is Mystery Witness entered in this $12.5K claiming sprint?  He is lightly raced and JUST WON at this level.  Why not move up a notch?"  And that would be valid in nearly every circumstance BUT here, trainer Jorge Navarro is a master at the claiming game and he is able to uncannily spot his horses where they can win.  So for me, if he thinks this is the right spot, I'm on board.  Entering the stretch Mystery Witness had a short lead but my third choice Vinnie Van Go was right behind.  They dueled to the furlong pole and Vinnie had a neck in front, but 'Mystery came right back and they were shoulder to shoulder to inside the final fifty yards when I finally got just a head in front.  WINNER!  Wait, "Ladies and gentlemen the rider of the unofficial second place horse has lodged a claim of foul against the unofficial winner for interference."  You kidding me?  They looked at it for several minutes and then, NO - it's official!

Next up was the third at Laurel, a maiden claiming event at Laurel going only 5 1/2 furlongs and the question was, "Which Spotmeifucan would show up?"  Of his four starts three had earned Beyer figures of 62-60-69 and those would win by a pole.  But the fourth start was a badly stopping 32 fig - that kind of number and he's no better than the others.  And the second question was, with him being 3/5 in the program you KNOW we aren't going to get any kind of price.  I eventually thought he simply was too good for these and doubled the bet.  Right to the front, but he was hounded all the way through the turn.  Put that one away but you could see the closers were coming.  Had the duel through the first four furlongs softened him up.  WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!!! PHOTO FINISH!

Whew......that was one of the scariest $3 profits I've ever earned!  But I had four wins from my first five bets and you can't argue with those kind of numbers!

Minutes later I ran second at 4/5 at Aqueduct and then it was time for the second in New Orleans at the Fair Grounds.  This was a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-old fillies and NONE of the runners with experience inspired a single iota of confidence.  So, that left us with Front Office who was a first timer from the Joe Sharp barn, who wins with 18% of those.  Jockey Adam Beschizza is a 24% win rider for the barn and she wouldn't have to have a lot of talent to win here.  Right to the front....took some mild pressure into the turn then opened up and drove to a daylight win as the post time favorite.  The fifth and sixth at Gulfstream were the outcomes that changed would could have been a BIG day into a just a good day at the races.  In the fifth, I'll claim a "moral victory," as well as "I can't believe I lost" to the finish.  This was a second level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth, which meant a first finish line end to the race - meaning any runner who's a closer will have an additional handicap to overcome.  And that applied to my pick Hy Kodiak Warrior.  But, I did NOT like the favorite, Brasstown.  So much so that when I went to see who the Gulfstream analysts liked today I was not fazed a single bit by the fact that three of the four picked Brasstown and two of them made him their BEST BET.  I could see why, he looked like the lone speed and with the short stretch, any hope of catching him seemed problematic.  But I just didn't see him being such a dominant front runner, especially at a short price.  The two most likely alternatives were Biblical and 'Warrior.  Biblical made sense because he was from the Todd Pletcher barn and had Johnny Velazquez on board.  BUT while he had shown ability last year when winning HERE at this distance in March, he wasn't seen again until December when he was distanced by Brasstown, so I didn't like him as much as my pick.  Hy Kodiak Warrior was running for the first time for trainer Jorge Delgado, a 38% win angle and he's winning at a 41% clip overall.  Add in jockey Irad Ortiz who's been white hot this week and the huge 12/1 morning line odds seemed way out of line.  Brasstown coasted on the easiest of leads to the far turn, and then inspite of a a very, very slow pace he stopped like he was shot.  Hy Kodiak Warrior gobbled him up and forged to the lead into the short stretch.  Then here came the #5 horse and he just got by on the wire.  That one was a 4/1 winner......yes, Biblical.  Sigh, Todd Pletcher pays double digits without me.  So, I was "right" about Brasstown, made a "good bet" on Hy Kodiak Warrior, but didn't cash.  Right back in the sixth we were on the turf and I liked Bill Mott's Penalty.  Went off at 9/2 and like Kodiak Warrior forged to the front in deep stretch, only to be caught in the final fifty yards by the favorite.  Back-to-back seconds on price plays.....would have collected $130 and change.  Sigh.....

Spliced between those two events was the fourth at Tampa - a five and a half furlong sprint for non-winners of two lifetime.  Shanghai Shuffle had run very poorly for Todd Pletcher in his first three starts then moved to the Joan Scott barn and off a long layoff he'd earned four straight mid-to-low 40 Beyer figures.  That won't win many stakes races but in here it would take a career effort to beat him.  He moved willingly approaching the far turn from mid-pack, glided to the front while being confidently handled and sprinted home the easiest of winners.  My sixth win of the day and I've yet to turn the page of my selection sheet!

It would be multiple races before I cashed again.  Of the seven missed races I hit the board once, so I really wasn't ever on the edge of my seat.  The one that irked me however was in Gulfstream's 7th.  I liked Coniston from post twelve going two turns on the turf because jockey Irad Ortiz had been so hot this week.  I thought he'd burst out of the gate and easily clear the field, then have a chance to wire this non-winners of two event.  But AS THE HORSES WERE WALKING ONTO THE TURF the announcement came that there had been a rider switch.....on #12!  Irad Ortiz who had piled up 98 wins here this winter would be replaced by Luca Panici, who had 8, yes EIGHT wins.  A 6% rider replacing a 26% winning rider.  And we are JUST finding out now as they approach the gate?  I was nearly certain it wasn't because of an injury because there hadn't been any riders fall today.  And I was further irritated when Irad Ortiz rode in the 9th race.  What was that all about?  Of course under Panici Croniston did not break sharply, was fourth and wide all the way around and finished fourth at 5/1 odds.  Grrrrrrr.  I had looked at the Santa Anita card because I KNEW I was playing the featured event this afternoon.  And I had found a bet in their second race, a rich $75K Maiden Claiming sprint for three-year-olds.  I could have understood if you went against the likely favorite, Platimum Nights who was racing for a maiden claiming tag for the third time today.  BUT, to me he got a pass.  The first time he'd raced for a tag it was a $100K tag, then the next time it was an $80K tag.  So he was still dropping in class, and even better, BOTH times for a tag he'd run significantly better than when he'd faced MSW rivals.  Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith got him to the front early on....faced pressure to the top of the stretch and then ran away at even money.

My only concern in the first of the three stakes at Gulfstream, the Melody of Colors on the turf for three-year-old fillies, sprinting five furlongs, was why did So Cal trainer John Sadler ship across the country to run for $75K with this 3x Euro winner?  Conversely, you don't come all this way just to "get a race into her."  But when the gates opened she was left at the gate.  Belated run to finish fourth at 7/2, but GP analyst Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet went wire to wire at 3/1 - and she'd been my second choice.  The eighth at Aqueduct was their feature, the Franklin Square Stakes going six furlongs for three-year-old fillies.  This featured several who appeared to have talent and two that were side-by-side both unbeaten in two starts.  I liked Stonesintheroad of those two.  She simply looked best and more importantly fastest on paper.  If the race played out as I saw it she'd outrun the competition and wire the field.  Call me psychic.....right the the front and L-O-N-G gone at nearly 2/1 odds with my double investment tagged on so I'd cash for almost $30.

In the tenth at Gulfstream EVERYONE liked Where Paradise Lay who had been a sharp third while over four lengths clear of the rest of the field in his debut AND got a 75 Beyer for the effort.  Every other runner was making their debut and the trainer stats with first time starters read:  9%, 5%, 10%, 8%, 17% (for a barn that's 1-for-22 at the meet), 0% and 0%.  Meanwhile 'Paradise's trainer was winning at a 44% clip this winter.  Sent off at an inflated 2/1 price he sat mid-pack to the top of the stretch, then collared the 5/2 leader.  But instead of going by they dueled.....PHOTO FINISH.  Lost.  This first timer came from one of the 0-for barns with debut runners.  Sigh......  Minutes later I was watching from the Fair Grounds when Free Cover dueled through the stretch and was in a photo - 2nd at a big 4/1 with a double investment; then at Gulfstream in the featured Grade 3 Hal's Hope I went with Todd Pletcher's Copper Town.  Jockey Javier Castellano was last out of the gate, got to the front at the top of the stretch then was run down by John Velazquez on the OTHER Todd Pletcher at 7/1.  In between races Pletcher commented that in the next, the Texas Glitter Stakes his late-running Stand Up had a good chance but he wanted Castellano to break sharper than last time.  Broke dead last - belated finish when an nonthreatening fifth.  In the finale Castellano was on Comic City who was the 5/2 favorite.  Bobbled slightly out of the gate, sigh.....raced up on heels and had to steady; was caught between runners and had to check slightly.....wow.  Made a bid and flattened out through the lane to finish fifth.  I missed twice at Santa Anita with good looking - on paper - runners (4th at 9/2 and third at 3/5) before the BIG race, the Grade 2 Buena Vista at a mile on the turf.  Jerry Hollendorfer's Vasilika had been claimed for $40K a year ago.  After a photo finish second in her first for Hollendorfer she beat a listed stakes field; then a nw1x and a nw2x followed by another listed stakes win.  She took a $100K AOC event, then stepped up and won the Grade 2 John Mabee.  Next she won the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive, followed by the Grade 2 Goldikova.  Finally the 8-race win streak was stopped when fourth in the Grade 1 Matriarch two back.  She'd come off the shelf to beat rivals in the Grade 3 Megahertz over this course to run her local record to an amazing 9/8-1-0.  She figured to be a short price, but she'd not had a real break in nearly a year.  Still fresh enough to beat these?  The lone speed went a wicked :45 and change into the far turn but was over half a dozen clear - would she stop?  Here came Vasilika with momentum while five wide.  Blew by to win going away and motored down. She is GOOD.

Ended with nine wins for 28 picks and a solid day of racing.  Coupled with the multiple wins for the week I am VERY satisfied with the month of February and how it's going!

February 23rd Day At The Races Highlights

President's Day Weekend

February 16-18

If you're following along with my racing adventures you know I was booked to meet my buddy Jim Anderson in Arkansas for an Oaklawn racing weekend, including three big graded stakes on Monday, President's Day.  But then last week we lost Kim's father, so I planned to completely skip the week from racing.  Headed to Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and didn't return until Monday night.  But for a variety of reasons I DID end up having a little bit of racing action over the weekend which was a nice diversion.

Friday February 16

I saw online that "the mighty mare" Winx was making her 2019 debut in the 7 furlong Group 2 Apollo Stakes late tonight, early Saturday morning.  I was just a touch concerned because this is NOT her best distance, and while she's won her year-beginning start at the distance the past three years, last year it was oh-so-close; and then she's a year older.  Also, the connections do not have a strategy for the year, just a race-by-race with an ultimate goal of a fifth straight Cox Plate eventually.  But her works led the comments to say she was better than ever and the one analysis I read of the race said she would have no problem.  So I went in for a big bet.  She was the prohibitive favorite on xpressbet and sat near the back as usual.  Made her patented move on the turn while four or five wide and blew by under a hand ride without any urging.  She is one exceptional race horse.

2019 Apollo Stakes

Monday February 18

I had thought that the Winx race would be the lone foray into racing for the extended weekend, especially with me returning on the Monday holiday.  But on Saturday our plan was to be at Kim's twin sister's Karrie's house all day with a lot of the family there and I knew that there would be a good chance that I'd have a lot of time to fill, so I downloaded the past performances for both Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn for Monday.  I figured I would make the bets Monday morning before heading to the airport and that when I arrived back home in So Fla this would give me something to look forward to in the evening as I began two weeks of being alone while Kim remains in Pennsylvania to help her Mom sort things out and get into a routine.

At Gulfstream they had eleven starter stakes and a MSW event in the finale.  At Oaklawn they had their three featured graded events complimented by a pretty solid undercard.  The first bet of the day came in Gulfstream's second, the Lady Bird at seven furlongs.  The race looked to me to finish the same way as the Opening Day Glass Slipper had with the 1-2-3 finishers coming back here.  I wanted to take one of the runner-up rivals but Mischief Maas looked too good on paper.  I was right in that they did run 1-2-3 again, but my pick ran third.  Should have played a $1 trifecta at a cost of $6 and I would have collected $17 - but you KNOW had I done that they would have run 1-2-4, or 1-3-4 :)  In the 4th, the Trust Buster, my pick Whyruawesome was 3/5 but flattened out in the stretch to finish third.  In the fifth I liked a price play in the Mary Todd on the turf with Shezaprado.  She was 8/1 and I still think she'd have won except.....they let the speed of the race walk on the lead through a :50 half mile split, but still I thought I was ready to roll when I had all kinds of traffic trouble.  Still, a solid third at the big number.  The first play from Oaklawn was next on the sheet.  The second from Hot Springs was a second level allowance and I liked New York Central in spite of the "obstacles."  First, the roan-gray son of champion Tapit was a $750K sales grad and had last been seen running a best-of-the-rest second in a Grade 3 event.  BUT that was on Kentucky Derby Day, so he was coming off of a nine month layoff.  And today he'd face older for the first time.  I noted in my analysis that he'd probably be a shorter price than his true chances to win, and he was as the 3/2 favorite.  Stalked the pace to the three-eighths pole then ran away as easily best.

Next up was the Mrs. President's at Gulfstream and I was a non-threatening eighth at 7/1 odds.  The third at Oaklawn was a maiden special for three-year-olds.  And as I wrote in my analysis, if you know anything about trainer Todd Pletcher he is VERY organized and a meticulous planner.  So that he had runners entered today in the stakes was no surprise.  And it should come as no surprise that he sent Intrepid Heart was running in this MSW event instead of running at Gulfstream Park, his home base where Pletcher 3yo runners typically dominate.  I also found it very interesting that today's event at Oaklawn was a one-mile race and those events at Gulfstream are a ONE-TURN event, where as here it's two-turns.  Three-year-olds at this time of year always would like to think they might be Derby candidates and if Pletcher picked this spot for the $750K sales grad, who's been working since September for his initial try you KNOW he had all this in mind.  The crowd was onto his talent and sent him away as the 4/5 favorite.  Immediately out of the gate he was hooked on the front end and he dueled through :23.0 and :47.1 fractions to the far turn.  The field began to close in but Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez let the son of champion Tapit out a notch and WOW did he accelerate.  With each stride he widened the margin and finished under mild urging the winner by more than seven lengths.  Oh how I wish he was going to run in Florida - he might be the Florida Derby pick.

Ironically I read later that he won this debut race on the exact same day to the year that Justify debuted....and he went on to win the Triple Crown last year!  In the fifth at Oaklawn my pick went right to the front trying two turns and went way too fast, stopping in the lane like he was tied to the rail.  In the tenth at Gulfstream Rich Daddy continued to be close without winning, third at 2/1 for me.  In the 7th at Oaklawn it was the first of the triple-headed stakes line-up, the Grade 3 Bayakoa.  I liked She's A Julie - first because I'd spent the better part of the weekend with my daughter Julie :)  If she ran back to her sharp second in the Grade 1 Alabama, finishing in front of multiple Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou, she would be a clear winner.  If she ran back to her latest when she was fourth at 1/5 odds in the Zia Park Oaks, she would be very vulnerable.  It was the former 'Julie that showed up today.  She and second choice Remedy dueled from the outset to the top of the stretch.  But instead of having the pace duel sink them both, She's A Julie opened up and was clear to the wire for my THIRD win in Arkansas!

Wishing I'd wagered more, but I had some concerns, so I'll take the winning ticket as is.  Next up was the 11th from Gulfstream and I'm still looking for my first winner on their card.  It was the last of the starter stakes, the Old Man Eloquent going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  I preferred Your Only Man who was last seen in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf when second.  He had Irad Ortiz up here and if he ran back to that race, he was your winner.  I was nearly certain he'd be a short price on the class drop but instead he went off as a nice 2/1 runner.  It was oh-so-close on the wire, and since I was watching the replays I thought he'd won, and when I clicked to view the results he did win at a sharp $6.20 price.  I didn't know until later that he actually had dead-heated for the win and I'd have received a much smaller payout but the dead-heat winner was DQ'd to second for interference to me, so I got to have the entire payoff!  WHOOOO HOOOO!

That makes two in a row and three of the last five plays in the winner's circle!  Next was the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap from Oaklawn and I thought Todd Pletcher's Coal Front would have been an odds-on pick had he not drawn the parking lot post of slot 14.  But, I believe that in spite of what the statistics say about post positions, the wide draw is much more of a problem for horses who are NOT quality runners.  In a graded stakes, you wouldn't pick to be this wide, but I don't think it's that much of an obstacle so I went with him anyway.  Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez broke right on cue and quickly was just off the hip and tracking the 15/1 front runner.  He made his move on the far turn, was clear into the stretch and then had to hold off a late bid from Copper Bullet, my second choice.  But he was the winner and I had my third in a row and fifth on the day!

At this point, after winning only one of my first five and then four of the last six I'd pulled ahead with a small profit.  But the last two selections for the day both finished off-the-board and so I ended with a 5-for-13 day (that's a strong 38% for those of you without calculators!) with a small dollar loss.  But I'll take it considering.

President's Day Highlights

The Erie Trip
Several people remarked prior to the services and afterwards that certainly the reason we were all in Pennsylvania together was not what we would have wanted, but the fact that we were all together was a very good thing.  So infrequently do I get to have all three of my kids in one spot and it meant so very much to me that my sister Laurie and niece Khloe came up for the services.  Khloe was asked to sing by Kim's mom Peggy and wow did she deliver.  Everyone raved about her vocal.  She is so very talented!  A few pictures from the weekend......

The whole family

The best balcony view in the world from "the Barn"

It was V-E-R-Y cold

My "kids"

Tampa Festival Preview Week

February 6 - 10

Several items of note this week, not all of which pertain to racing, but were an impact on my life as I document what goes on in my world.  First, in the non-racing news......I was very happy that my Mom's health has been on the improve (she's been battling shingles and the side-effects for almost a year now) and she was arriving on Tuesday.  Two things she ALWAYS wants to do, in addition to spending time with us and enjoying the warm winter weather is to go to dinner with an ocean view and spend the day at the races.  So, if you followed last week's journals, you know I had booked us a table overlooking the track for Saturday's Festival Preview Day.  Second, very sadly early Tuesday morning we got a phone call that Kim's dad had passed away suddenly.  He had just been to the races with me last week and was not only my track buddy, but my card-playing partner and had been like a Dad to me since my own Dad passed away over fifteen years ago.  He will be sorely missed.  

It's been a welcome distraction that my Mom is here and I've had to go on as though the world is normal despite worrying about my wife.  But I am sure she is better off with her family than if I were with her.  Finally, back to the racing world - finally, FINALLY it looks like the "real Todd Pletcher" may have finally arrived for the second half of the Gulfstream meet.  As a result of his reemergence I had a very good week!

Wednesday February 6

As the racing week began I had six selections on the ten race Wednesday program and four of them were Todd Pletcher runners.  As I noted at the end of racing last weekend, I'd passed on two Pletcher three-year-olds on back-to-back days and paid the price as they scored at a $13.40 and $19.20 payoff.  So as I wrote in today's analysis, ".....will I be writing next Monday that today was finally the day that Todd Pletcher "returned" to make Gulfstream his personal playground....."  Well, it sure didn't seem like it to begin with.  In the opener I took what was sure to be the short priced favorite, Alpha Orionis (3/5 in the program).  He was trained by Pletcher but there were a bevy of red flags surrounding him.  And to be honest, had I not just been burned last weekend this would have been one of the few I'd have passed up because it was such a gamble with the potential payoff being so minuscule.  Alpha Orionis had been a $325K sales grad so you KNOW there were high hopes.  The first "uh oh" factor was that instead of debuting here at Gulfstream with the "first team" Pletcher sent him to Tampa to try MSW runners.  Sent away as the favorite he was a dozen lengths off the winner at a short price.  Well, ok, maybe give him one and maybe he didn't like the sandy surface there?  But today he was IMMEDIATELY plunged into not only a maiden claiming event, but a basement level $12.5K sales tag race.  NONE of this can be good.  Still, I was not about to be burned, even for a return of only a dollar or two profit!  He set what could be called a "pressured pace" to the far turn with fractions of :24.2 and :47.4 for a one-turn mile.  But often it's not as much the clock time as the pressure and there was pressure from a 13/1 and 25/1 rival.  Top rider Luis Saez held him together into the lane and he was clear.  But then the 25/1 runner began to find a new gear.  Heads up and heads down.....PHOTO finish, but I knew I'd lost.  I said out loud to my Mom and Kim, "SEE, this is what's happening all winter with Pletcher horses - even with a 2/5 favorite he can't get into the winner's circle!"  But then, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets as there will be a stewards' inquiry into the stretch run involving the unofficial winner and second place horse."  Could it be?  I watched the replay......

I told my Mom who was following my day that I've seen less lead to a DQ and worse NOT lead to a DQ.  Fortunately I got the decision today and had my first winner of the week.

Next, in the second another Pletcher 3yo maiden claimer.  Had it not been another one of those I would have been on the white-hot trainer Jason Servis' runner.  That one went wire to wire as the favorite and I was an even running third.  Passed the third and fourth then thought I had the right closer in a turf sprint.  My second choice looked to be the "speed of the speed" but today he too came from off the pace, and he won at a 7/1 price.  In the 6th Dezzer would be an automatic "play against" were anyone but Jorge Navarro the trainer.  He was plunging from five consecutive allowance tries into a $12.5K claiming sprint.  Obviously for sale.  But Navarro makes a living with these kind of drop downs here all winter and all summer at Monmouth Park.  Figured to be a short priced winner and he was.....but not without the drama of a photo finish!

Still, a winner is a winner and I was collecting nearly $40 and change!  The seventh was a 3yo maiden event on the turf and it was my third Todd Pletcher runner.  Clint Maroon had debuted in an off-the-turf event and obviously didn't care for the going while earning a dismal 32 speed figure.  In his second start he had the built-in excuse of being posted in the 11-hole in a 12-horse field.  He dead-heated for third with a significantly better 73 Beyer.  AND the horse that dead-heated with him had come back to beat maiden specials at Tampa on the grass.  Jockey Jose Ortiz had little options other than send from the rail draw today and he was in a duel from the get-go.  On the official chart he lost the lead at the second call, but came back again and once they turned for home he opened up and drew off.  While the margin was diminishing it was never in doubt as the favorite - a Chad Brown first timer, and my second choice - closed to be a best-of-the-rest second.  Nice that 'Clint paid a healthy $6.80 and I would collect almost $35!

The last play of the day and my final Pletcher pick was a returning runner who had shown real talent.  Was a bit anxious when they showed an interview with the main man and he said that Marconi would be better going two turns later.  Hmmmm.  Ran fourth at 2/1.  Still, for the day I scored three times and two with Todd Pletcher runners - ahhhh, feels more like the "old Gulfstream" today!

Thursday February 7

Off to a good start, and feeling good about the racing.  I had six selections today and all but one were added money plays.  The first was my "best" with the red-hot Jason Servis conditioning Keeping The Peace who was making his debut in this maiden claiming event.  Servis had stellar numbers and go-to rider Irad Ortiz.  Sent off as the even money favorite he dueled early, weakened and was lucky to save the show.  This was followed by another third at even money and yet another third as the 8/5 favorite.  Next was a seventh beaten more than a dozen as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite - wow - then a fourth at 3/1 odds.  Swung for the fences in the ninth and had a Shug McGaughey/John Velazquez runner at 17/1.....led into deep stretch and I really thought, maybe......caught inside the final fifty yards to finish fourth.  But that was exciting.  And finally, my Todd Pletcher runner of the day was a late running fourth at 3/1.  So, as good as Wednesday had been, today was an 0-for day :(

Friday February 8
Well, can we bounce back was the question of the day!  Friday was kind of a mix of the first two days.  Not as bad as yesterday, not as good as Wednesday.  In the opener I passed but my top choice won as the 6/5 favorite.  My pick scratched out of the second.  In the third I passed and my third choice went wire-to-wire in a race that I foresaw as having a speed contest on the front end to set up a closer.  Passed again in a maiden race - my tepid pick of a first timer ran second at 3/1.  Mixed feelings in the fifth, a 3yo claiming event on the turf.  Box of Gold was the obvious class pick dropping out of stakes events.  But her jockey stuck to a filly he'd ridden to a maiden win.  Neither that one of my pick won, I was second at 6/5.  My pick in the second would have been odds-on and I remarked in my analysis that this was your "choice" in here.  Jason Servis was sending out unbeaten, albeit in two starts, Mybigitalianfriend in an entry level allowance and he was 4/5 in the program.  You weren't going to make money but you probably had the winner.  I did.  He pressed the pace to the far turn, took over and was ridden out to a clear victory.  The proof will be in the pudding next time if they try second level allowance runners.

REALLY thought I had an upset chance in the sixth with Bourbon Country who'd run against the grain last time out and had a good set up today I thought.  I was half right.  The front runner set the table and stopped in mid-stretch.  'Bourbon was near the back with an 11/1 runner into the turn.  That one hugged the rail while I went wide.  I finished evenly, he burst through to win going away.  The eighth was another "what do you do with the odds-on favorite" kind of race.  Pay Any Price is the track record holder at the five furlong distance on the turf and is a multiple stakes winner.  He loves this course and twice in his pp's you could see he'd dropped into a starter-optional claimer like this to win and regain his confidence.  My concern is that one of the others was a "need to lead" just like Pay Any Price and they COULD duel each other into submission though I thought Pay Any Price was clearly the speed of the speed and/or the classier of the two.  I really should have upped the bet when that one scratched but I decided to just sit tight.  Easily wire to wire.

An even sixth in a turf event was followed by a surprising loss in the finale.  Although if you read my comments, ".....it HAS to be a red flag that Chad Brown & the Klaravich stables have entered Royal Family into this $20K spot for his debut after paying $350K for him at the sales ring.  Ran to that red flag when a non-threatening 8th as the 6/5 favorite.

Saturday February 9:  Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day

What a roller coaster day!  Loved being there with my Mom.  The table in the Ten Palms was very nice.  Didn't realize until the bill came that if you don't spend at least $30 per person they add a $60 charge to your bill AND add the tip.  Sigh.....what you won't do for your Mom :)  Won the first three - went on a three hour skid; won six in a row.  A great day when it was all said and done AND Mom won over $100 at the casino!  Click HERE to read the full day's story!

Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights

Sunday February 10
I was a bit anxious about today to be honest.  Many is the time I have a good day on Saturday - hammering away for over six hours at various tracks to grind out double digit wins.  Then I come back on Sunday and go 0-for or win a race or two and the week's totals drop.  So after the 11-win day on Saturday I wondered how I'd fare with eight selections, and to the theme of the week FOUR of them were Todd Pletcher horses.  In past years that would have nearly guaranteed a winning close to the week.  The way it played out today.......  There were nine 3yo maidens in the fourth (no picks in the first three, though.....what was I thinking when I passed on "Lady Kim" for my wife and she won to the tune of $10.40!), running for a $25K tag.  Two of the nine were dropping out of $50K races and Queen's Bird was going first off the claim.  A bit of a red flag that the new connections laid out $50K for her and now were entering her for $25K.  But the barn wins at a 36% clip first off the claim and I figured that IF 'Queen was claimed away off a win they'd collect well over $40K and could call it basically a wash.  Jockey Tyler Gafflione put her immediately on the lead and that my friends was the end of that!

The fifth was an entry level allowance and I would have bet Todd Pletcher's Orra Moor, because it was "return to Todd" week.  But I was pleasantly encouraged when the DRF's Mike Welsch tabbed her as a likely winner.  She broke a step slowly, quickly regained momentum to track the leaders wide on the turn.  When John Velazquez gave her the cue she was LONG gone, drawing off to a widening seven and change length win under a hand ride.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

But here's the best part.  In spite of Orra Moor being a Pletcher filly, being the top pick in the DRF, AND having Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez up she STILL paid $6.20 and I cashed for over $30!  Wow.  Todd Pletcher's Underestimate was the pick in an allowance going a mile on the turf for older runners.  Right to the front at big 7/2 odds under top rider Luis Saez.  But she was hounded the entire trip by a 30/1 runner.  She won the battle and forged to the front near the quarter pole but could not withstand the late rush of the second choice who drew off impressively.  The seventh was a "KEY" race for me.  If you read the Saturday write-up you may remember that the tenth on Saturday was an allowance for 3yo colts who had an eye on possible Derby Day dreams.  And in that race I'd upped the bet on Global Campaign when Todd Pletcher's Outshine scratched to run later today.  And you may also remember that when Global Campaign broke his maiden impressively, my pick was a clear best-of-the-rest second.  That 3yo was Growth Engine and he was the pick here.  My only concern was the wide draw under Javier Castellano with the short run to the first turn - and the short stretch of this mile and a sixteenth race.  Had some anxious moments when Castellano kept him four wide all the way down the backstretch and into the turn, but he burst clear as easily best.  AND I upped the bet after watching Global Campaign score yesterday!  THREE WINS already!

Passed the eighth to get to a maiden 3yo turf event in the ninth.  As I commented there were a lot of ways to go in here, and it wasn't impossible to imagine the favorite would run his "A" race to win, but as a 7x maiden already I was against.  I liked first time starter Valid Point from the Chad Brown barn.  He was a bit wide to the far turn, but swept up with the look of a winner then edged clear without being asked for a top effort - FOUR wins.  WOW, what a day.

Another Pletcher runner in the tenth, Jupiter Rising was 2/1 in a nw2L event and ran evenly.  And so now we came to the "real test" of the day, the weekend, and the week in this "has the real Todd Pletcher come back" week.  Again, forgive me for repeating from the full day Saturday journal, but when I was handicapping for today I saw a link for a video preview of the Rainbow Pick-6 for Saturday which had an anticipated pool of $10 Million.  And in the eleventh today the three analysts referenced my second and third picks - both of whom were highly regarded and were using this 8 1/2 furlong test as a possible step to the Fountain of Youth and on to the Florida Derby.  Then one of them mentioned the chances of Todd Pletcher's Outshine.  But the DRF's Mike Welsch remarked that he had talked to Pletcher Friday morning and Pletcher was scratching out of that two turn event to run here, today in a seven furlong allowance.  Toss that in with the handicapping angles present and he was not only the pick, but the BET of the Day!  I was hopeful to get a fair price on Outshine because his Beyers weren't tops in the field.  But, off his debut win as a 2yo he was placed in one of the first juvenile stakes of the summer.  While he didn't fare well, that race produced THREE next-out STAKES winners!  Outshine had two bullet works over the deep Palm Beach Downs training surface and had Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.  After being a beat slow he was stalking the leaders into the far turn.  Then you could see he was gaining on them, had all the momentum in spite of being widest of all, and best of all.....he wasn't being asked.  Lost some ground on the turn but accelerated past them to win going away!  Hip Hip HORRAY!

But get this - I had hoped for a "fair" price.....in spite of everything I mentioned above, somehow Outshine paid a big $7.60 and I had cashed on my FIFTH winner of the day for over $75!  What a great Sunday.  Would have liked to have won with my final choice, a Chad Brown turf maiden, but was a disappointing ninth.  Still for the day.....five for eight with profit of over $80!  YOWZA!

And here's to Todd Pletcher who provided me with SIX of the twenty-one wins on the week.  From a total of fifty-five selections, that's a win percentage of almost 40%.  It was a good week at the track.