February 6 - 10
Several items of note this week, not all of which pertain to racing, but were an impact on my life as I document what goes on in my world. First, in the non-racing news......I was very happy that my Mom's health has been on the improve (she's been battling shingles and the side-effects for almost a year now) and she was arriving on Tuesday. Two things she ALWAYS wants to do, in addition to spending time with us and enjoying the warm winter weather is to go to dinner with an ocean view and spend the day at the races. So, if you followed last week's journals, you know I had booked us a table overlooking the track for Saturday's Festival Preview Day. Second, very sadly early Tuesday morning we got a phone call that Kim's dad had passed away suddenly. He had just been to the races with me last week and was not only my track buddy, but my card-playing partner and had been like a Dad to me since my own Dad passed away over fifteen years ago. He will be sorely missed.
It's been a welcome distraction that my Mom is here and I've had to go on as though the world is normal despite worrying about my wife. But I am sure she is better off with her family than if I were with her. Finally, back to the racing world - finally, FINALLY it looks like the "real Todd Pletcher" may have finally arrived for the second half of the Gulfstream meet. As a result of his reemergence I had a very good week!
Wednesday February 6
As the racing week began I had six selections on the ten race Wednesday program and four of them were Todd Pletcher runners. As I noted at the end of racing last weekend, I'd passed on two Pletcher three-year-olds on back-to-back days and paid the price as they scored at a $13.40 and $19.20 payoff. So as I wrote in today's analysis, ".....will I be writing next Monday that today was finally the day that Todd Pletcher "returned" to make Gulfstream his personal playground....." Well, it sure didn't seem like it to begin with. In the opener I took what was sure to be the short priced favorite, Alpha Orionis (3/5 in the program). He was trained by Pletcher but there were a bevy of red flags surrounding him. And to be honest, had I not just been burned last weekend this would have been one of the few I'd have passed up because it was such a gamble with the potential payoff being so minuscule. Alpha Orionis had been a $325K sales grad so you KNOW there were high hopes. The first "uh oh" factor was that instead of debuting here at Gulfstream with the "first team" Pletcher sent him to Tampa to try MSW runners. Sent away as the favorite he was a dozen lengths off the winner at a short price. Well, ok, maybe give him one and maybe he didn't like the sandy surface there? But today he was IMMEDIATELY plunged into not only a maiden claiming event, but a basement level $12.5K sales tag race. NONE of this can be good. Still, I was not about to be burned, even for a return of only a dollar or two profit! He set what could be called a "pressured pace" to the far turn with fractions of :24.2 and :47.4 for a one-turn mile. But often it's not as much the clock time as the pressure and there was pressure from a 13/1 and 25/1 rival. Top rider Luis Saez held him together into the lane and he was clear. But then the 25/1 runner began to find a new gear. Heads up and heads down.....PHOTO finish, but I knew I'd lost. I said out loud to my Mom and Kim, "SEE, this is what's happening all winter with Pletcher horses - even with a 2/5 favorite he can't get into the winner's circle!" But then, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets as there will be a stewards' inquiry into the stretch run involving the unofficial winner and second place horse." Could it be? I watched the replay......
I told my Mom who was following my day that I've seen less lead to a DQ and worse NOT lead to a DQ. Fortunately I got the decision today and had my first winner of the week.
Next, in the second another Pletcher 3yo maiden claimer. Had it not been another one of those I would have been on the white-hot trainer Jason Servis' runner. That one went wire to wire as the favorite and I was an even running third. Passed the third and fourth then thought I had the right closer in a turf sprint. My second choice looked to be the "speed of the speed" but today he too came from off the pace, and he won at a 7/1 price. In the 6th Dezzer would be an automatic "play against" were anyone but Jorge Navarro the trainer. He was plunging from five consecutive allowance tries into a $12.5K claiming sprint. Obviously for sale. But Navarro makes a living with these kind of drop downs here all winter and all summer at Monmouth Park. Figured to be a short priced winner and he was.....but not without the drama of a photo finish!
Still, a winner is a winner and I was collecting nearly $40 and change! The seventh was a 3yo maiden event on the turf and it was my third Todd Pletcher runner. Clint Maroon had debuted in an off-the-turf event and obviously didn't care for the going while earning a dismal 32 speed figure. In his second start he had the built-in excuse of being posted in the 11-hole in a 12-horse field. He dead-heated for third with a significantly better 73 Beyer. AND the horse that dead-heated with him had come back to beat maiden specials at Tampa on the grass. Jockey Jose Ortiz had little options other than send from the rail draw today and he was in a duel from the get-go. On the official chart he lost the lead at the second call, but came back again and once they turned for home he opened up and drew off. While the margin was diminishing it was never in doubt as the favorite - a Chad Brown first timer, and my second choice - closed to be a best-of-the-rest second. Nice that 'Clint paid a healthy $6.80 and I would collect almost $35!
The last play of the day and my final Pletcher pick was a returning runner who had shown real talent. Was a bit anxious when they showed an interview with the main man and he said that Marconi would be better going two turns later. Hmmmm. Ran fourth at 2/1. Still, for the day I scored three times and two with Todd Pletcher runners - ahhhh, feels more like the "old Gulfstream" today!
Thursday February 7
Off to a good start, and feeling good about the racing. I had six selections today and all but one were added money plays. The first was my "best" with the red-hot Jason Servis conditioning Keeping The Peace who was making his debut in this maiden claiming event. Servis had stellar numbers and go-to rider Irad Ortiz. Sent off as the even money favorite he dueled early, weakened and was lucky to save the show. This was followed by another third at even money and yet another third as the 8/5 favorite. Next was a seventh beaten more than a dozen as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite - wow - then a fourth at 3/1 odds. Swung for the fences in the ninth and had a Shug McGaughey/John Velazquez runner at 17/1.....led into deep stretch and I really thought, maybe......caught inside the final fifty yards to finish fourth. But that was exciting. And finally, my Todd Pletcher runner of the day was a late running fourth at 3/1. So, as good as Wednesday had been, today was an 0-for day :(
Friday February 8
Well, can we bounce back was the question of the day! Friday was kind of a mix of the first two days. Not as bad as yesterday, not as good as Wednesday. In the opener I passed but my top choice won as the 6/5 favorite. My pick scratched out of the second. In the third I passed and my third choice went wire-to-wire in a race that I foresaw as having a speed contest on the front end to set up a closer. Passed again in a maiden race - my tepid pick of a first timer ran second at 3/1. Mixed feelings in the fifth, a 3yo claiming event on the turf. Box of Gold was the obvious class pick dropping out of stakes events. But her jockey stuck to a filly he'd ridden to a maiden win. Neither that one of my pick won, I was second at 6/5. My pick in the second would have been odds-on and I remarked in my analysis that this was your "choice" in here. Jason Servis was sending out unbeaten, albeit in two starts, Mybigitalianfriend in an entry level allowance and he was 4/5 in the program. You weren't going to make money but you probably had the winner. I did. He pressed the pace to the far turn, took over and was ridden out to a clear victory. The proof will be in the pudding next time if they try second level allowance runners.
REALLY thought I had an upset chance in the sixth with Bourbon Country who'd run against the grain last time out and had a good set up today I thought. I was half right. The front runner set the table and stopped in mid-stretch. 'Bourbon was near the back with an 11/1 runner into the turn. That one hugged the rail while I went wide. I finished evenly, he burst through to win going away. The eighth was another "what do you do with the odds-on favorite" kind of race. Pay Any Price is the track record holder at the five furlong distance on the turf and is a multiple stakes winner. He loves this course and twice in his pp's you could see he'd dropped into a starter-optional claimer like this to win and regain his confidence. My concern is that one of the others was a "need to lead" just like Pay Any Price and they COULD duel each other into submission though I thought Pay Any Price was clearly the speed of the speed and/or the classier of the two. I really should have upped the bet when that one scratched but I decided to just sit tight. Easily wire to wire.
An even sixth in a turf event was followed by a surprising loss in the finale. Although if you read my comments, ".....it HAS to be a red flag that Chad Brown & the Klaravich stables have entered Royal Family into this $20K spot for his debut after paying $350K for him at the sales ring. Ran to that red flag when a non-threatening 8th as the 6/5 favorite.
What a roller coaster day! Loved being there with my Mom. The table in the Ten Palms was very nice. Didn't realize until the bill came that if you don't spend at least $30 per person they add a $60 charge to your bill AND add the tip. Sigh.....what you won't do for your Mom :) Won the first three - went on a three hour skid; won six in a row. A great day when it was all said and done AND Mom won over $100 at the casino! Click HERE to read the full day's story!
Sunday February 10
I was a bit anxious about today to be honest. Many is the time I have a good day on Saturday - hammering away for over six hours at various tracks to grind out double digit wins. Then I come back on Sunday and go 0-for or win a race or two and the week's totals drop. So after the 11-win day on Saturday I wondered how I'd fare with eight selections, and to the theme of the week FOUR of them were Todd Pletcher horses. In past years that would have nearly guaranteed a winning close to the week. The way it played out today....... There were nine 3yo maidens in the fourth (no picks in the first three, though.....what was I thinking when I passed on "Lady Kim" for my wife and she won to the tune of $10.40!), running for a $25K tag. Two of the nine were dropping out of $50K races and Queen's Bird was going first off the claim. A bit of a red flag that the new connections laid out $50K for her and now were entering her for $25K. But the barn wins at a 36% clip first off the claim and I figured that IF 'Queen was claimed away off a win they'd collect well over $40K and could call it basically a wash. Jockey Tyler Gafflione put her immediately on the lead and that my friends was the end of that!
The fifth was an entry level allowance and I would have bet Todd Pletcher's Orra Moor, because it was "return to Todd" week. But I was pleasantly encouraged when the DRF's Mike Welsch tabbed her as a likely winner. She broke a step slowly, quickly regained momentum to track the leaders wide on the turn. When John Velazquez gave her the cue she was LONG gone, drawing off to a widening seven and change length win under a hand ride. WHOOOO HOOOOO!
But here's the best part. In spite of Orra Moor being a Pletcher filly, being the top pick in the DRF, AND having Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez up she STILL paid $6.20 and I cashed for over $30! Wow. Todd Pletcher's Underestimate was the pick in an allowance going a mile on the turf for older runners. Right to the front at big 7/2 odds under top rider Luis Saez. But she was hounded the entire trip by a 30/1 runner. She won the battle and forged to the front near the quarter pole but could not withstand the late rush of the second choice who drew off impressively. The seventh was a "KEY" race for me. If you read the Saturday write-up you may remember that the tenth on Saturday was an allowance for 3yo colts who had an eye on possible Derby Day dreams. And in that race I'd upped the bet on Global Campaign when Todd Pletcher's Outshine scratched to run later today. And you may also remember that when Global Campaign broke his maiden impressively, my pick was a clear best-of-the-rest second. That 3yo was Growth Engine and he was the pick here. My only concern was the wide draw under Javier Castellano with the short run to the first turn - and the short stretch of this mile and a sixteenth race. Had some anxious moments when Castellano kept him four wide all the way down the backstretch and into the turn, but he burst clear as easily best. AND I upped the bet after watching Global Campaign score yesterday! THREE WINS already!
Passed the eighth to get to a maiden 3yo turf event in the ninth. As I commented there were a lot of ways to go in here, and it wasn't impossible to imagine the favorite would run his "A" race to win, but as a 7x maiden already I was against. I liked first time starter Valid Point from the Chad Brown barn. He was a bit wide to the far turn, but swept up with the look of a winner then edged clear without being asked for a top effort - FOUR wins. WOW, what a day.
Another Pletcher runner in the tenth, Jupiter Rising was 2/1 in a nw2L event and ran evenly. And so now we came to the "real test" of the day, the weekend, and the week in this "has the real Todd Pletcher come back" week. Again, forgive me for repeating from the full day Saturday journal, but when I was handicapping for today I saw a link for a video preview of the Rainbow Pick-6 for Saturday which had an anticipated pool of $10 Million. And in the eleventh today the three analysts referenced my second and third picks - both of whom were highly regarded and were using this 8 1/2 furlong test as a possible step to the Fountain of Youth and on to the Florida Derby. Then one of them mentioned the chances of Todd Pletcher's Outshine. But the DRF's Mike Welsch remarked that he had talked to Pletcher Friday morning and Pletcher was scratching out of that two turn event to run here, today in a seven furlong allowance. Toss that in with the handicapping angles present and he was not only the pick, but the BET of the Day! I was hopeful to get a fair price on Outshine because his Beyers weren't tops in the field. But, off his debut win as a 2yo he was placed in one of the first juvenile stakes of the summer. While he didn't fare well, that race produced THREE next-out STAKES winners! Outshine had two bullet works over the deep Palm Beach Downs training surface and had Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. After being a beat slow he was stalking the leaders into the far turn. Then you could see he was gaining on them, had all the momentum in spite of being widest of all, and best of all.....he wasn't being asked. Lost some ground on the turn but accelerated past them to win going away! Hip Hip HORRAY!
But get this - I had hoped for a "fair" price.....in spite of everything I mentioned above, somehow Outshine paid a big $7.60 and I had cashed on my FIFTH winner of the day for over $75! What a great Sunday. Would have liked to have won with my final choice, a Chad Brown turf maiden, but was a disappointing ninth. Still for the day.....five for eight with profit of over $80! YOWZA!
And here's to Todd Pletcher who provided me with SIX of the twenty-one wins on the week. From a total of fifty-five selections, that's a win percentage of almost 40%. It was a good week at the track.
Friday February 8
Well, can we bounce back was the question of the day! Friday was kind of a mix of the first two days. Not as bad as yesterday, not as good as Wednesday. In the opener I passed but my top choice won as the 6/5 favorite. My pick scratched out of the second. In the third I passed and my third choice went wire-to-wire in a race that I foresaw as having a speed contest on the front end to set up a closer. Passed again in a maiden race - my tepid pick of a first timer ran second at 3/1. Mixed feelings in the fifth, a 3yo claiming event on the turf. Box of Gold was the obvious class pick dropping out of stakes events. But her jockey stuck to a filly he'd ridden to a maiden win. Neither that one of my pick won, I was second at 6/5. My pick in the second would have been odds-on and I remarked in my analysis that this was your "choice" in here. Jason Servis was sending out unbeaten, albeit in two starts, Mybigitalianfriend in an entry level allowance and he was 4/5 in the program. You weren't going to make money but you probably had the winner. I did. He pressed the pace to the far turn, took over and was ridden out to a clear victory. The proof will be in the pudding next time if they try second level allowance runners.
REALLY thought I had an upset chance in the sixth with Bourbon Country who'd run against the grain last time out and had a good set up today I thought. I was half right. The front runner set the table and stopped in mid-stretch. 'Bourbon was near the back with an 11/1 runner into the turn. That one hugged the rail while I went wide. I finished evenly, he burst through to win going away. The eighth was another "what do you do with the odds-on favorite" kind of race. Pay Any Price is the track record holder at the five furlong distance on the turf and is a multiple stakes winner. He loves this course and twice in his pp's you could see he'd dropped into a starter-optional claimer like this to win and regain his confidence. My concern is that one of the others was a "need to lead" just like Pay Any Price and they COULD duel each other into submission though I thought Pay Any Price was clearly the speed of the speed and/or the classier of the two. I really should have upped the bet when that one scratched but I decided to just sit tight. Easily wire to wire.
An even sixth in a turf event was followed by a surprising loss in the finale. Although if you read my comments, ".....it HAS to be a red flag that Chad Brown & the Klaravich stables have entered Royal Family into this $20K spot for his debut after paying $350K for him at the sales ring. Ran to that red flag when a non-threatening 8th as the 6/5 favorite.
Saturday February 9: Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
What a roller coaster day! Loved being there with my Mom. The table in the Ten Palms was very nice. Didn't realize until the bill came that if you don't spend at least $30 per person they add a $60 charge to your bill AND add the tip. Sigh.....what you won't do for your Mom :) Won the first three - went on a three hour skid; won six in a row. A great day when it was all said and done AND Mom won over $100 at the casino! Click HERE to read the full day's story!
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
I was a bit anxious about today to be honest. Many is the time I have a good day on Saturday - hammering away for over six hours at various tracks to grind out double digit wins. Then I come back on Sunday and go 0-for or win a race or two and the week's totals drop. So after the 11-win day on Saturday I wondered how I'd fare with eight selections, and to the theme of the week FOUR of them were Todd Pletcher horses. In past years that would have nearly guaranteed a winning close to the week. The way it played out today....... There were nine 3yo maidens in the fourth (no picks in the first three, though.....what was I thinking when I passed on "Lady Kim" for my wife and she won to the tune of $10.40!), running for a $25K tag. Two of the nine were dropping out of $50K races and Queen's Bird was going first off the claim. A bit of a red flag that the new connections laid out $50K for her and now were entering her for $25K. But the barn wins at a 36% clip first off the claim and I figured that IF 'Queen was claimed away off a win they'd collect well over $40K and could call it basically a wash. Jockey Tyler Gafflione put her immediately on the lead and that my friends was the end of that!
The fifth was an entry level allowance and I would have bet Todd Pletcher's Orra Moor, because it was "return to Todd" week. But I was pleasantly encouraged when the DRF's Mike Welsch tabbed her as a likely winner. She broke a step slowly, quickly regained momentum to track the leaders wide on the turn. When John Velazquez gave her the cue she was LONG gone, drawing off to a widening seven and change length win under a hand ride. WHOOOO HOOOOO!
But here's the best part. In spite of Orra Moor being a Pletcher filly, being the top pick in the DRF, AND having Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez up she STILL paid $6.20 and I cashed for over $30! Wow. Todd Pletcher's Underestimate was the pick in an allowance going a mile on the turf for older runners. Right to the front at big 7/2 odds under top rider Luis Saez. But she was hounded the entire trip by a 30/1 runner. She won the battle and forged to the front near the quarter pole but could not withstand the late rush of the second choice who drew off impressively. The seventh was a "KEY" race for me. If you read the Saturday write-up you may remember that the tenth on Saturday was an allowance for 3yo colts who had an eye on possible Derby Day dreams. And in that race I'd upped the bet on Global Campaign when Todd Pletcher's Outshine scratched to run later today. And you may also remember that when Global Campaign broke his maiden impressively, my pick was a clear best-of-the-rest second. That 3yo was Growth Engine and he was the pick here. My only concern was the wide draw under Javier Castellano with the short run to the first turn - and the short stretch of this mile and a sixteenth race. Had some anxious moments when Castellano kept him four wide all the way down the backstretch and into the turn, but he burst clear as easily best. AND I upped the bet after watching Global Campaign score yesterday! THREE WINS already!
Passed the eighth to get to a maiden 3yo turf event in the ninth. As I commented there were a lot of ways to go in here, and it wasn't impossible to imagine the favorite would run his "A" race to win, but as a 7x maiden already I was against. I liked first time starter Valid Point from the Chad Brown barn. He was a bit wide to the far turn, but swept up with the look of a winner then edged clear without being asked for a top effort - FOUR wins. WOW, what a day.
Another Pletcher runner in the tenth, Jupiter Rising was 2/1 in a nw2L event and ran evenly. And so now we came to the "real test" of the day, the weekend, and the week in this "has the real Todd Pletcher come back" week. Again, forgive me for repeating from the full day Saturday journal, but when I was handicapping for today I saw a link for a video preview of the Rainbow Pick-6 for Saturday which had an anticipated pool of $10 Million. And in the eleventh today the three analysts referenced my second and third picks - both of whom were highly regarded and were using this 8 1/2 furlong test as a possible step to the Fountain of Youth and on to the Florida Derby. Then one of them mentioned the chances of Todd Pletcher's Outshine. But the DRF's Mike Welsch remarked that he had talked to Pletcher Friday morning and Pletcher was scratching out of that two turn event to run here, today in a seven furlong allowance. Toss that in with the handicapping angles present and he was not only the pick, but the BET of the Day! I was hopeful to get a fair price on Outshine because his Beyers weren't tops in the field. But, off his debut win as a 2yo he was placed in one of the first juvenile stakes of the summer. While he didn't fare well, that race produced THREE next-out STAKES winners! Outshine had two bullet works over the deep Palm Beach Downs training surface and had Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. After being a beat slow he was stalking the leaders into the far turn. Then you could see he was gaining on them, had all the momentum in spite of being widest of all, and best of all.....he wasn't being asked. Lost some ground on the turn but accelerated past them to win going away! Hip Hip HORRAY!
But get this - I had hoped for a "fair" price.....in spite of everything I mentioned above, somehow Outshine paid a big $7.60 and I had cashed on my FIFTH winner of the day for over $75! What a great Sunday. Would have liked to have won with my final choice, a Chad Brown turf maiden, but was a disappointing ninth. Still for the day.....five for eight with profit of over $80! YOWZA!
And here's to Todd Pletcher who provided me with SIX of the twenty-one wins on the week. From a total of fifty-five selections, that's a win percentage of almost 40%. It was a good week at the track.
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