February 9
A Day At The Races With My Mom
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
There are two things that my Mom enjoys a lot about her annual winter trip to South Florida, and one of them is to be able to go to the live races at Gulfstream. With her arrival on Tuesday, today we headed out and I had picks from six different tracks, including the local races and the big card from Tampa as today their races were to serve as preps for the Tampa Bay Derby Day in mid-March. Last weekend in anticipation of today I had made reservations for us at the Ten Palms restaurant on top of the second level, and we had seats that overlooked the finish line. As we left the house a little before eleven a.m. I was a bit worried because I've always said that it's a rare day that it actually rains at Gulfstream during the winter season. And as we were driving through the rain on the way to the track I reminded my Mom of the day it had been JUST LIKE THIS and I had said not to worry, it wouldn't be raining at Gulfstream. And it was. And it kept getting worse and worse, so much so that after the fourth race I went to the car in mid-calf deep pools of water and as we were carefully driving out of the flooded parking lot they canceled racing for the first time in the history of live racing at Gulfstream. But fortunately by the time we arrived it was partly sunny and it stayed that way all afternoon. The only "complaint" I had was how windy it was, which interferes with the audio of my video recording! And so the racing began!
I had remarked at the beginning of the week in my analysis that I would be curious to know if by the end of this weekend would the "real Todd Pletcher" show up. He'd been noticeably quiet, while winning at a solid near 25% his runners were just "un-Pletcher like" in their performance. But at the end of last week I'd missed on back-to-back big priced runners each of the last two days in the finale from his barn. So I recommitted to my "stick with Todd" philosophy of the Championship Meet. In the opener we were going six furlongs in a maiden claiming event. Last Judgement had debuted on Tropical Park Derby Day as my BEST of the Day. The $300K sales grad went off at even money but broke dead last, rushed up to within a half length of the leader and tired late. A bit disconcerting that he was immediately dropped in for a tag but if the "old Todd Pletcher" was back the drop and second career start under go-to rider John Velazquez should produce the win. He tracked the leaders in fifth to through the far turn, swung into the clear and wore down the leader in deep stretch to edge clear and pull away! WHOOO HOOO - three cheers for Todd!
My second play of the day came from Oldsmar in Tampa's second race, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds. I did NOT like the short-priced favorite but instead I thought that Turko Treat had a legitimate upset chance in the bulky field of fourteen sophomores from the outside draw as a second time starter for Gerald Bennett. He tracked the leaders into the far turn, swung five wide into the lane on the hip of the 4/5 favorite and when heads turned for home he left that one in the dust to score at a generous $9.20 and I was 2-for-2!
The third at Gulfstream made me wary as the runners approached the starting gate. As I told my Mom, it SHOULD NOT have anything to do with the outcome of the race, but it was a concern to me as a long time racing fan that the opener had been won by a short priced favorite, the second race was won by a short priced favorite, and here we were with Angelia sitting as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite with ten minutes to post time. But of the three first race favorites I would have to say she was the MOST legitimate favorite. She was running for Todd Pletcher and had made her first start this year off a layoff. Pletcher is most deadly in the winter with first time MSW three-year-olds and sophomores coming off a long break as she had. That day Angelia had tracked the leaders into the lane, took the lead, but then couldn't withstand the winner. That was the bad news. The good news that while the winner had been daylight clear of Angelia, she was TEN clear of the rest of the field and had earned a huge 88 Beyer speed figure. Even a bit of a regression would result in a daylight score here. She was stretching out to two turns with the first finish line after the mile and a sixteenth race so perhaps that would work in her favor. She broke a bit slow and heading into the backstretch she was near the back of a very slow pace. Velazquez wasted no time and made a big middle move to get his filly into contention going four wide through a pedestrian :24.4 opening quarter and as they approached the far turn he was nearly on even terms with the leader through a :49 and change half mile. Took command turning for home and drove to the wire to score.....suddenly I'm three-for-three and I'm off to a great start!
My Mom was not having much luck at the races through three races so she headed off to the casino. About forty-five minutes later she returned beaming to announce she'd scored for over $60 playing the slot machines! So happy for my mother :) Meanwhile I was trying to endure three hours of watching my picks fail to hold on or get there in time. Over the span of FOURTEEN races I ran second three times, third twice and fourth twice, all the while failing to get home consecutive odds-on favorites when Rymska tried to rally through a glacial :51 half mile in today's featured Grade 3 Suwanee River Stakes, and then Elso couldn't make up enough ground when trying to rally into an even slower :52 half mile split in the Fair Grounds' Shantel Lanerie Memorial. You'd figure after failing to get the job done closing I'd get a front running win, right? Heart to Heart, a multiple graded stakes winner was allowed to go all alone on the lead in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay and was still clear with 100 yards to go at a very generous 2/1 until three closers blew by in the shadow of the wire. Sigh, what's it going to take to get a win Webby? All it took, as it turns out was a loose-on-the-lead 3/5 favorite at Laurel! Oxilirating was even money in the program and I looked to beat the lightly raced runner, but as the DRF's Marcus Hersch wrote, the lightly raced filly looked to be ALL alone on the front end. And she went right to the front and no one ever got within three lengths of her as she coasted through the 8 1/2 furlong allowance test to score.
Fifteen minutes later they were in the gate for Tampa's Suncoast Stakes, the prep for their three-year-old fillies who were hoping to eventually get to the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday of May. On the one hand I thought on talent the field was pretty evenly matched and would not have been surprised to see nearly any of them win. But the race flow looked to me to have a lot of front runners and/or pace pressers. Especially at Tampa where late finishers seem to flourish I thought Point of Honor might get the right trip under Javier Castellano. The three-year-old daughter of champion Curlin had debuted in December at Gulfstream in a race originally scheduled for the grass. But when it was moved to the main track she left the gate as the 9/5 favorite. Despite a modest pace and the first finish line she'd blown by everyone from near to back to draw with authority. Today she sat last through the opening quarter but as the field hit the backside she began to steadily pick off horses and was third mid-way on the turn. She was rolling with a full head of momentum as they turned for home and she opened up to draw off by an emphatic margin! Win number five and I'm on a two race win streak.
That brought us to my BET of the Day! It was another 3yo filly stakes and this one was the Grade 2 Las Virgenes from Santa Anita. Bellafina was a multiple Grade 1 winner and had headed to Churchill Downs for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies as a likely win candidate. So much so that at post time she was the 9/5 favorite in that million dollar race on "Future Stars Friday" as Dan, Keith and I watched from on top the grandstand in Louisville. But she hopped as the gates opened, then was bumped around losing all chance for a pace-pressing and/or front-running trip. She chased a loose on the lead front runner and ran credibly to be fourth. She had kicked off her 3yo campaign in early January with a decisive score in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez going seven furlongs and just looked really hard to beat in here. She headed straight to the front and was hounded the entire way by Bob Baffert's Mother Mother. But turning for home she put that one away and edged clear. A closing longshot filly ran the race of her life to make the margin closer than it looked, but there was no beating the champion, and I had my second three-race win streak of the day!
The tenth at Gulfstream was a three-year-old allowance going a mile and a sixteenth with several of these hoping to get on the Derby trail. My pick was Todd Pletcher's Outshine who'd scored at first asking at seven furlongs and was stretching. He'd be meeting two highly regarded colts with Derby dreams but it is Gulfstream and this typically is Pletcher's playground! But this morning as I was beginning to handicap for Sunday's races I saw that today there was a mandatory payout of the Rainbow Pick-6 with an expected payout of close to $10 million. And with that announcement there was a link to a video analysis of the payout, so I was curious how many of my top three choices were going to be in those of the three analysts on the video. I tell you all this because in the second leg, it was this 10th race and all three of them talked about the two colts I thought would challenge Outshine, but then Mike Welsch of the DRF said he had talked to Pletcher that morning (Friday) and he had been told that Outshine would be scratched from today's two-turn test and run in a 7f event on Sunday. I paused the video (as I was on Race 6 of the Sunday card) and found that Outshine was indeed in the past performances for Sunday's 11th race. I adjusted my selection and went with Global Campaign. He had debuted about a month ago and he faced a Chad Brown firster named Growth Engine who was also a first time starter. Global Campaign aired that day with Growth Engine a best of the rest second - ironically he runs back tomorrow and is a top pick of mine, maybe we adjust the bet based on how Global Campaign runs today. His main rival today was Standard Deviation and I expected both to be well bet, but 'Campaign was hammered to a short-priced favorite. And he was ultra impressive, running away by daylight without being asked for his best. FOUR in a row, and suddenly I've turned around my winning percentages for today :)
You can see, if you look at the ticket closely, that with the way the betting went I decided to up the bet from a double to a triple investment. As I returned to our table I could see that they were approaching the gate for Tampa's Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. Rymska had been entered here and she would have been a prohibitive favorite, but I assumed she would run at Gulfstream and with that in mind it looked like an evenly matched field. Hawksmoor's past performances showed that in nine of her last eleven she'd either been on the lead or pressing the pace from less than a length. And one of the two where she did not it was noted that she had "stumbled badly" out of the gate. My only concern was that Javier Castellano was on board and as I've said many times over the last two years, you just don't know anymore what kind of trip you will get. I was encouraged that he'd ridden Point of Honor exactly as expected so I was hopeful. But was not hustled early and as they went through the turn and down the backside she was sitting seventh of ten runners. But, less than five off the front. As they hit the turn she began weaving through the field, picking off runners and as they turned for home she split rivals and had all the momentum with dead aim on the 14/1 longshot leader. Castellano gave her the cue and she sprinted to the wire. I had tripled the bet on what I'd expected to be a loose-on-the-lead front-running winner (better to be lucky than good!) and I cashed on my FIFTH winner in a row for close to $40.
Just as the replay showed Hawksmoor crossing the line in slow motion they were turning for home at the Fair Grounds. The eighth here was a two-turn allowance for three-year-olds, much like the tenth at Gulfstream where several of these saw this as a chance to get their name on the list for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby later this spring. I thought that Dream Maker, who was 9/5 in the program would be bet down to a short price and as such was not a "good bet." But he seemed like a very likely winner after his connections had thought enough of him to send him to Saratoga and run in the Grade 1 Hopeful last summer. He was every bit of the 6/5 favorite that the tote board displayed!
Missed on three in a row including three I thought I had excellent chances to win. Mr. Cub had run 2nd to Bricks and Mortar who had come back to win the Grade 1 $7 Million Pegasus Turf, but he was only 2nd best in the co-featured El Prado here in the 11th; and then in the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa - the prep for the Tampa Bay Derby - highly touted Knicks Go was the surprising second choice. He had upset the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland at 70/1 odds, then gave unbeaten two-year-old champion all he wanted at 40/1 in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. His big time fade in his 2yo finale could be tossed for the sloppy going and/or coming off two monster efforts. His trainer, who was based at Tampa remarked publicly that "....they better have their running shoes on...." because his colt was going to run BIG. Just evenly, never threatened when finishing fourth. And in the Grade 3 Thunder Road at Santa Anita, favored River Boyne got a miserable ride as the 3/5 favorite in a six horse field. I had no problem with him riding the rails to the far turn when fifth of six. But as they hit the far turn the rider stayed inside.....not a wise move, but what ever. Then as they turned for home he was blocked, tried first inside, then between horses and then was checked as the closers flew by the front runners. A disappointing fourth. Sigh....... Minutes later it was time for the finale at Gulfstream a one-mile maiden special for three-year-olds with a full field of runners. And like SO many Gulfstream maiden events, on paper several of these appeared to have stakes futures. I wasn't happy with the rail draw in a twelve horse field, but I trusted Chad Brown had his filly primed and that Irad Ortiz would work out a trip. Ortiz did a good job to hold his position on the rail to the far turn in about mid-pack. But you could see that Cafe Americano was crying out to run, with no where to go. He began to move up as they approached the stretch and then a seam opened between runners. Cafe Americano burst through and won going away - my fourth win at Gulfstream and TENTH of the day!
If you'd asked me at about four o'clock when I'd gone on the fourteen race skid about my chances of having my "typical" day of winners I would have chuckled and said, "not today my friend!" But now as we were heading out the door I had two races left and was sitting on a 10-for-28 day, which is right on the 35% win mark! In the finale at Tampa I was bet down from 10/1 to 9/2 and ran like a ten-to-one runner, finishing eighth. But in the last race on the sheet that I'd bet at Gulfstream, class dropping Much Better was the BEST BET of the DRF's Brad Free in an entry level allowance for three-year-olds going six and a half furlongs. He was turning back from a try in the one mile Grade 3 Sham and looked ideally drawn to beat these foes. Much, MUCH the best as he scored for fun at 2/5 odds with my triple investment.
For the day I finished 11-for-30 and much, MUCH better than I'd have guessed in mid-afternoon. I have eight picks on tomorrow's card, which is a lot for a Sunday.....let's see how the week finishes up!
My second play of the day came from Oldsmar in Tampa's second race, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds. I did NOT like the short-priced favorite but instead I thought that Turko Treat had a legitimate upset chance in the bulky field of fourteen sophomores from the outside draw as a second time starter for Gerald Bennett. He tracked the leaders into the far turn, swung five wide into the lane on the hip of the 4/5 favorite and when heads turned for home he left that one in the dust to score at a generous $9.20 and I was 2-for-2!
The third at Gulfstream made me wary as the runners approached the starting gate. As I told my Mom, it SHOULD NOT have anything to do with the outcome of the race, but it was a concern to me as a long time racing fan that the opener had been won by a short priced favorite, the second race was won by a short priced favorite, and here we were with Angelia sitting as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite with ten minutes to post time. But of the three first race favorites I would have to say she was the MOST legitimate favorite. She was running for Todd Pletcher and had made her first start this year off a layoff. Pletcher is most deadly in the winter with first time MSW three-year-olds and sophomores coming off a long break as she had. That day Angelia had tracked the leaders into the lane, took the lead, but then couldn't withstand the winner. That was the bad news. The good news that while the winner had been daylight clear of Angelia, she was TEN clear of the rest of the field and had earned a huge 88 Beyer speed figure. Even a bit of a regression would result in a daylight score here. She was stretching out to two turns with the first finish line after the mile and a sixteenth race so perhaps that would work in her favor. She broke a bit slow and heading into the backstretch she was near the back of a very slow pace. Velazquez wasted no time and made a big middle move to get his filly into contention going four wide through a pedestrian :24.4 opening quarter and as they approached the far turn he was nearly on even terms with the leader through a :49 and change half mile. Took command turning for home and drove to the wire to score.....suddenly I'm three-for-three and I'm off to a great start!
My Mom was not having much luck at the races through three races so she headed off to the casino. About forty-five minutes later she returned beaming to announce she'd scored for over $60 playing the slot machines! So happy for my mother :) Meanwhile I was trying to endure three hours of watching my picks fail to hold on or get there in time. Over the span of FOURTEEN races I ran second three times, third twice and fourth twice, all the while failing to get home consecutive odds-on favorites when Rymska tried to rally through a glacial :51 half mile in today's featured Grade 3 Suwanee River Stakes, and then Elso couldn't make up enough ground when trying to rally into an even slower :52 half mile split in the Fair Grounds' Shantel Lanerie Memorial. You'd figure after failing to get the job done closing I'd get a front running win, right? Heart to Heart, a multiple graded stakes winner was allowed to go all alone on the lead in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay and was still clear with 100 yards to go at a very generous 2/1 until three closers blew by in the shadow of the wire. Sigh, what's it going to take to get a win Webby? All it took, as it turns out was a loose-on-the-lead 3/5 favorite at Laurel! Oxilirating was even money in the program and I looked to beat the lightly raced runner, but as the DRF's Marcus Hersch wrote, the lightly raced filly looked to be ALL alone on the front end. And she went right to the front and no one ever got within three lengths of her as she coasted through the 8 1/2 furlong allowance test to score.
Fifteen minutes later they were in the gate for Tampa's Suncoast Stakes, the prep for their three-year-old fillies who were hoping to eventually get to the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday of May. On the one hand I thought on talent the field was pretty evenly matched and would not have been surprised to see nearly any of them win. But the race flow looked to me to have a lot of front runners and/or pace pressers. Especially at Tampa where late finishers seem to flourish I thought Point of Honor might get the right trip under Javier Castellano. The three-year-old daughter of champion Curlin had debuted in December at Gulfstream in a race originally scheduled for the grass. But when it was moved to the main track she left the gate as the 9/5 favorite. Despite a modest pace and the first finish line she'd blown by everyone from near to back to draw with authority. Today she sat last through the opening quarter but as the field hit the backside she began to steadily pick off horses and was third mid-way on the turn. She was rolling with a full head of momentum as they turned for home and she opened up to draw off by an emphatic margin! Win number five and I'm on a two race win streak.
That brought us to my BET of the Day! It was another 3yo filly stakes and this one was the Grade 2 Las Virgenes from Santa Anita. Bellafina was a multiple Grade 1 winner and had headed to Churchill Downs for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies as a likely win candidate. So much so that at post time she was the 9/5 favorite in that million dollar race on "Future Stars Friday" as Dan, Keith and I watched from on top the grandstand in Louisville. But she hopped as the gates opened, then was bumped around losing all chance for a pace-pressing and/or front-running trip. She chased a loose on the lead front runner and ran credibly to be fourth. She had kicked off her 3yo campaign in early January with a decisive score in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez going seven furlongs and just looked really hard to beat in here. She headed straight to the front and was hounded the entire way by Bob Baffert's Mother Mother. But turning for home she put that one away and edged clear. A closing longshot filly ran the race of her life to make the margin closer than it looked, but there was no beating the champion, and I had my second three-race win streak of the day!
The tenth at Gulfstream was a three-year-old allowance going a mile and a sixteenth with several of these hoping to get on the Derby trail. My pick was Todd Pletcher's Outshine who'd scored at first asking at seven furlongs and was stretching. He'd be meeting two highly regarded colts with Derby dreams but it is Gulfstream and this typically is Pletcher's playground! But this morning as I was beginning to handicap for Sunday's races I saw that today there was a mandatory payout of the Rainbow Pick-6 with an expected payout of close to $10 million. And with that announcement there was a link to a video analysis of the payout, so I was curious how many of my top three choices were going to be in those of the three analysts on the video. I tell you all this because in the second leg, it was this 10th race and all three of them talked about the two colts I thought would challenge Outshine, but then Mike Welsch of the DRF said he had talked to Pletcher that morning (Friday) and he had been told that Outshine would be scratched from today's two-turn test and run in a 7f event on Sunday. I paused the video (as I was on Race 6 of the Sunday card) and found that Outshine was indeed in the past performances for Sunday's 11th race. I adjusted my selection and went with Global Campaign. He had debuted about a month ago and he faced a Chad Brown firster named Growth Engine who was also a first time starter. Global Campaign aired that day with Growth Engine a best of the rest second - ironically he runs back tomorrow and is a top pick of mine, maybe we adjust the bet based on how Global Campaign runs today. His main rival today was Standard Deviation and I expected both to be well bet, but 'Campaign was hammered to a short-priced favorite. And he was ultra impressive, running away by daylight without being asked for his best. FOUR in a row, and suddenly I've turned around my winning percentages for today :)
You can see, if you look at the ticket closely, that with the way the betting went I decided to up the bet from a double to a triple investment. As I returned to our table I could see that they were approaching the gate for Tampa's Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. Rymska had been entered here and she would have been a prohibitive favorite, but I assumed she would run at Gulfstream and with that in mind it looked like an evenly matched field. Hawksmoor's past performances showed that in nine of her last eleven she'd either been on the lead or pressing the pace from less than a length. And one of the two where she did not it was noted that she had "stumbled badly" out of the gate. My only concern was that Javier Castellano was on board and as I've said many times over the last two years, you just don't know anymore what kind of trip you will get. I was encouraged that he'd ridden Point of Honor exactly as expected so I was hopeful. But was not hustled early and as they went through the turn and down the backside she was sitting seventh of ten runners. But, less than five off the front. As they hit the turn she began weaving through the field, picking off runners and as they turned for home she split rivals and had all the momentum with dead aim on the 14/1 longshot leader. Castellano gave her the cue and she sprinted to the wire. I had tripled the bet on what I'd expected to be a loose-on-the-lead front-running winner (better to be lucky than good!) and I cashed on my FIFTH winner in a row for close to $40.
Just as the replay showed Hawksmoor crossing the line in slow motion they were turning for home at the Fair Grounds. The eighth here was a two-turn allowance for three-year-olds, much like the tenth at Gulfstream where several of these saw this as a chance to get their name on the list for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby later this spring. I thought that Dream Maker, who was 9/5 in the program would be bet down to a short price and as such was not a "good bet." But he seemed like a very likely winner after his connections had thought enough of him to send him to Saratoga and run in the Grade 1 Hopeful last summer. He was every bit of the 6/5 favorite that the tote board displayed!
Missed on three in a row including three I thought I had excellent chances to win. Mr. Cub had run 2nd to Bricks and Mortar who had come back to win the Grade 1 $7 Million Pegasus Turf, but he was only 2nd best in the co-featured El Prado here in the 11th; and then in the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa - the prep for the Tampa Bay Derby - highly touted Knicks Go was the surprising second choice. He had upset the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland at 70/1 odds, then gave unbeaten two-year-old champion all he wanted at 40/1 in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. His big time fade in his 2yo finale could be tossed for the sloppy going and/or coming off two monster efforts. His trainer, who was based at Tampa remarked publicly that "....they better have their running shoes on...." because his colt was going to run BIG. Just evenly, never threatened when finishing fourth. And in the Grade 3 Thunder Road at Santa Anita, favored River Boyne got a miserable ride as the 3/5 favorite in a six horse field. I had no problem with him riding the rails to the far turn when fifth of six. But as they hit the far turn the rider stayed inside.....not a wise move, but what ever. Then as they turned for home he was blocked, tried first inside, then between horses and then was checked as the closers flew by the front runners. A disappointing fourth. Sigh....... Minutes later it was time for the finale at Gulfstream a one-mile maiden special for three-year-olds with a full field of runners. And like SO many Gulfstream maiden events, on paper several of these appeared to have stakes futures. I wasn't happy with the rail draw in a twelve horse field, but I trusted Chad Brown had his filly primed and that Irad Ortiz would work out a trip. Ortiz did a good job to hold his position on the rail to the far turn in about mid-pack. But you could see that Cafe Americano was crying out to run, with no where to go. He began to move up as they approached the stretch and then a seam opened between runners. Cafe Americano burst through and won going away - my fourth win at Gulfstream and TENTH of the day!
If you'd asked me at about four o'clock when I'd gone on the fourteen race skid about my chances of having my "typical" day of winners I would have chuckled and said, "not today my friend!" But now as we were heading out the door I had two races left and was sitting on a 10-for-28 day, which is right on the 35% win mark! In the finale at Tampa I was bet down from 10/1 to 9/2 and ran like a ten-to-one runner, finishing eighth. But in the last race on the sheet that I'd bet at Gulfstream, class dropping Much Better was the BEST BET of the DRF's Brad Free in an entry level allowance for three-year-olds going six and a half furlongs. He was turning back from a try in the one mile Grade 3 Sham and looked ideally drawn to beat these foes. Much, MUCH the best as he scored for fun at 2/5 odds with my triple investment.
For the day I finished 11-for-30 and much, MUCH better than I'd have guessed in mid-afternoon. I have eight picks on tomorrow's card, which is a lot for a Sunday.....let's see how the week finishes up!
Tampa Festival Preview Day Highlights
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