February 2: Holy Bull Day
Today was one of "those days" that is why I love Gulfstream in the winter......a gorgeous South Florida afternoon with a nice crowd, great racing, a lot of winners, and just a great day to be at the track! Here's how the day played out..... Kim had left Friday morning for the west coast of Florida with her parents so I had a full day of handicapping and came to the track with selections from SEVEN different tracks. I wondered prior to the start of the racing if I had "forced" some of the bets or if I had truly legitimate plays. And there were not one but two added bonuses before the day even got started. First, from the beginning of the week on the weather forecast had been for a good chance of rain on Friday and then for today a nearly 90% of not only rain throughout the day but thunderstorms! The chance of an off-track was so "certain" that the Gulfstream management decided to take two of the big stakes races scheduled for today and move them to tomorrow's card. But from the moment I got there and throughout the day it was NEARLY picture post-card weather. I will admit that the last couple of hours there were more clouds than sun and right before the first of the graded stakes there were a smattering of rain drops. But they were of little consequence, in fact in the photo above, this was taken "while it was raining!" And the second big bonus was that because I'd come out here on Wednesday and had not one but FOUR winners, I was cashing those tickets to kick off the day and I'd see how far I could make "their money" last today!
When I went to cash them in the total showing on the machine rang up to a nice $99.50! Now THAT my friends is how to start your day! I went up to "my seat" - Section 101, Row A, Seat 10 and met this year's ticket gal who now knows me (so much so that last weekend she greeted me at the paddock - she wasn't working the tickets last week - and stopped me to wish me luck for the day), and give her my ticket and take my seat to go through the changes on the programs using my xpressbet app on my phone. Afterwards, I didn't have a play in the opener at Gulfstream so I used the time to head up to the Ten Palms Restaurant on the second level. Not to eat, but because next weekend my Mom will be in town and she has a difficult time going up and down the stairs to "my seat" so I told her I'd try and get a window seat at a restaurant on the upper level for the day. I honestly thought they'd tell me there was no guarantee, or I'd have to wait and see what was available next Saturday. But no, as soon as I explained what I was looking for the man in charge said "That's no problem!" And he typed my name in for the reservation and said, "I can't tell you WHICH table you'll have but I can promise you that you will have a window seat with your Mom!" Here's the view we have to look forward to next Saturday!
And so, finally, the racing action began. I ran second and third twice with my first three selections. In the second at Aqueduct we were going nine furlongs with three-year-old maiden special weight runners. That's a LONG trip for a sophomore at this time of the year, but still I had a colt that I liked - Motagally. This race was typical of today and this week as it was one of "those races" that as a general rule I don't like to play. But as I've often said, "the rule in handicapping is that there are NO rules" and many of my selections (and wins) this week came with such "rule-breaking" picks. One kind of race I do not like generally is one which has runners back that just faced off against each other and especially if they were both involved in a photo finish. Such was the case with my pick and what should be the second favorite Stilts. The two of them had battled head up and head down to a photo last time out at this distance and it appeared that little separated them. But for me, the best-of-94 bullet work that Chad Brown put into the $650K sales grad told me he would run big. The crowd must have thought the same because they sent him off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite (Stilts was 3/1). Motagally pressed the 5/1 leader into the turn and then Stilts made his move. As he began to gain ground my jockey sat motionless until they hit the top of the lane then he let the colt go. Took off like the way a 3/5 favorite should and won for fun.
I went back to my seat and within minutes they were approaching the gate for the second at Gulfstream, a non-winners of three lifetime on the grass. The first thing I'd noted when handicapping the race was that I did NOT like the favorite and thought I'd get a fair price on Sapphire Jubilee. I was hovering between 2/1 and 5/2 when they announced, "Ladies and gentlemen, may I have your attention for a late scratch by order of the stewards....." The favorite was out and my odds plummeted to even money and now I WAS the favorite. He pressed the pace to the turn, put a head in front at the top of the lane and dueled for a 16th of a mile, then drew off! TWO IN A ROW!
I wished I'd had more on 'Jubilee with the favorite scratching, but I was trying to stick to the plan! I headed upstairs to do a video because my next bet wasn't until the third here at Gulfstream. On my way to my seat I stopped and made the next three bets - here, at Tampa, and at Laurel. The Laurel race went off first and was about to go off shortly after I made the bets, so I stayed to watch on the simulcast TV sets. Again, this was a race with two horses who'd faced each other and finished nearly even. But I thought Super Buddy would have a decided edge today. The fourth at Laurel was an allowance event going a one-turn mile. When they'd met last time out they were going two turns and a mile and a sixteenth. May not seem like much but this is significant. First, you'd think that the shorter distance would help the other horse who'd been caught by 'Buddy late last time, but instead it figured to be the opposite! The rival was 1-for-13 locally AND had all his wins going two turns. By comparison Super Buddy had three wins locally and had TWICE won at this one-turn mile. He went off at 9/5 and tracked the leaders to the turn then blew by as much the best - THREE IN A ROW!
My three race winning streak had been with a double investment and two minimum plays, but the next two were both triple investments! First up, the fourth at Gulfstream. This was a claiming event going two turns on the grass and it appeared like it would be REALLY hard to beat the likely short-priced favorite, Montclair who was 6/5 in the program. Sent out by white-hot trainer Jason Servis (44% overall) this horse was beaten only two lengths in the $100K Claiming Crown Emerald - from which the winner had come back to win again. And that loss had snapped a four-race winning streak. He went off at 4/5, which I thought was a touch high considering how good he looked on paper. He was on the rail in mid-pack heading into the turn when he launched his bid. Up the rail until they hit the top of the lane where Paco Lopez swung him into the clear. He reached the leader but that one would not give in......PHOTO FINISH! I thought I had it and was just making a "selfie video" when it was announced there would be a STEWARD'S INQUIRY into the stretch run involving the top two finishers. I watched the replay and honestly didn't see anything......it soon became official and I had my FOURTH winner and was cashing for almost $30 on this ticket!
Within minutes it was post time in Tampa for their third race, a non-winners of three lifetime. As I wrote in my analysis and said on my video - either the morning line odds maker is WAY off or I am because to me, Little Toe was a standout in here and he was listed at 4/1 odds in the program! The field of seven had four in here who's form was SO bad that if they won it would truly been a huge surprise. Two others were coming off of wins vs. 2-lifetime rivals - the step up from 2L to 3L is significant - AND both of them showed ELEVEN STRAIGHT LOSSES prior to that last out win. What were the odds that they would win right back stepping up in class? That left Little Toe who was also the ONLY one dropping in class, duh. He did take some late money but still was a healthy 9/5 as they left the gate. Right to the front and no one ever gained ground on him. WHOOOO HOOOO! Five, count 'em, FIVE in a row!
The numbers evened out as I went on an hour-long, four race skid.....7th at 5/1 (a Todd Pletcher 3yo in a MSW), 2nd when caught late at 5/2 at Laurel; 6th at 6/5 at GP; and 6th again at 2/1 in Tampa. The sixth at Laurel was yet again a selection that typically I avoid. I do NOT like last out maiden winners when facing winners for the first time. But Malabar had been impressive in his last out maiden win and this $5K non-winners of two lifetime looked especially weak. On top of that he appeared to be the lone speed, so I doubled the bet. Broke from post ten and quickly was in a pressing spot. Before they reached the far turn he grabbed the lead and with each and every stride he drew farther and farther away from the field, effortlessly.
Chalk up another win (my sixth) and I was cashing for $15 on the 1-2 favorite. The sixth at Aqueduct was a second level allowance and Preservationist looked like a deserving favorite (8/5 in the program). He'd been third in a sprint three weeks ago as the 8/5 favorite BUT was coming off an eleven month break. With one under his belt and the stretch to a one-turn mile he looked good. He tracked in fourth to the far turn, then was really pushed hard to try and reach the leaders. Not at all impressive, but he kept grinding away and in the final fifty yards he got to the wire in time.
Seven wins now from fourteen selections - I'm having a very good day! The seventh at Gulfstream was a MSW for 3yo going six furlongs and I decided to go against Todd Pletcher - hoping not to regret it. Last weekend one of THE most impressive maiden winners of the meet had come from Bill Mott's barn. Now normally Mott is NOT one of the leading trainers here - he uses So Fla as kind of a place to get his runners ready for the spring meet at Belmont and Churchill it seems. But also he next to NEVER has first time starters ready to roll. But last weekend Hidden Scroll was truly sensational, so much so that there is talk he may be a Derby horse. So today when I saw that there was a Mott 3yo in this field I did a little digging. I pulled up the past performances from last week on Hidden Scroll and compared the works to those of Haunt who was debuting for Mott today. His works were on the same day and ALWAYS as fast or faster! Uh oh - and he was 8/1 in the program. He was bet down to 3/1 and was gaining through the stretch, but was fourth behind a 24/1 upset winner who went wire to wire. Worth noting that Haunt was asked to continue running through the wire and within a sixteenth of a mile he blew by the top three. Tab that one for next time! In the sixth at Tampa I liked Vouch on the turf despite the fact that he'd never run on the grass. He was the 9/5 favorite as they approached the gate when he was scratched by the track veterinarian. At Santa Anita I had the 9/5 favorite in their second but he was a non-threatening fourth over a soggy and sloppy race track. In the sixth at the Fair Grounds I liked Rubin Hurricane in a maiden special event going two turns. He was the 3/1 third choice and had a BRUTAL trip - lucky to grab fourth money at 3/1....another to tab for next time. We now approaching the start of the graded stakes action at Gulfstream and in the first of those, the Grade 3 Forward Gal for three-year-old fillies I had my BET of the Day! Feedback is a potential superstar for trainer Chad Brown. She'd debuted at Saratoga and by all accounts her debut was a "head turner" as it was written and said on video. I watched the replay and it was a WOW kind of race as she drew off as tons, TONS the best without being asked to run and had earned a big 84 Beyer figure despite not being asked for her best. The first "problem" was that she'd not run since that August debut and that this was compounded by the fact that she was facing winners AND stakes company in a graded event today. Still, from what I'd read and seen she seems like she may be a really special kind of filly. Another consideration is that IF she's a special as they think, you KNOW that the main target is the first Friday in May, the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks so are they really "all out" today. But again, I agreed with the on-air Gulfstream analysts who remarked that even a "B" kind of effort from her would probably be good enough today. Then hottie Acacia Courtney interviewed Chad Brown on air. His first comments were that they really thought she was good enough to be an Oaks kind of filly! OK then! But then he said, ".....I wish I'd had time to get another work into her, but I think she's good enough even though she's probably only about 80% ready....." Hmmmm, 80% ready, facing winners, Grade 3 runners, with recency AND going seven furlongs. That's a lot to ask. But I had faith. She broke sharply, pressed the pace to the turn, took over willingly and then at about the furlong pole she looked visually to be tired as the late runners began closing in. But she was all heart and held on for the win.
I am hoping that many handicappers - and I've already read this once - consider that maybe she's not quite as good as advertised so that she'll be a fair price next time out. Because to me, the gutsy win over Grade 3 company, when short, and going seven panels was impressive. Another noteworthy anecdote.....the gal who takes the tickets. After I'd won my fifth in a row she came over to my seat and said, "How are you doing? Listen, if you'd like me to take your picture like you usually have taken, I'd be happy to do that." I thought that was so nice that she'd come to my seat and offer. So in my mind I thought if/when Feedback won this Grade 3 Forward Gal I'd ask. And that's the pic you see at the top of the page. I personally think it's one of the best recent photos of me :) Less than ten minutes later I was looking up at the simulcast broadcast from Laurel watching Nick Papagiogio race in a starter optional claiming at Laurel. It was going a mile and a sixteenth and 'Nick had never been two turns and did NOT have the top speed figures. But he had closed ground in a race where the DRF track variant indicated that would be difficult indeed. And what really sold me was the DRF's Marcus Hersch, who rarely likes favorites made the comment that he was "....as close to a standout as you can get...." He tracked the leader into the turn and took off to draw off very impressively. But he was also bet to run that way as the 1-2 favorite. Still, he made my ninth win today :)
Missed at Tampa when my 3yo maiden didn't fire. But right away we were on the turf at the Fair Grounds for their feature, the Maestri Memorial for 3yo's. Marquee Prince looked solid to me after back-to-back wins with improving speed figures. The 'Prince saved ground while tracking the leaders through the far turn and then when asked seemed to be gaining but not with a sudden burst of acceleration. He was closing in on the leaders at the sixteenth pole, but it looked to me like he was going to run out of room. But as he split horses about one hundred yards out he seemed to find a new gear and shot by to finish a winner, going away. Best of all he was a nice $6.20 payoff so I cashed for another $30 and change.
Todd Pletcher's Moretti didn't fire in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct and I was a late running third in the Grade 3 Swale here at Gulfstream (my second choice, the favorite, won handily). Next up was the finale at Laurel and non-winners of two lifetime going two turns. I would have had no problem with anyone saying they thought Bobby G was a vulnerable favorite in a cheap race. But he had been facing much better 2-lifetime runners in New York and just looked much the best. He was at 4/5 - won by over a pole without being asked to run. Win number ELEVEN!
They literally had just crossed the finish line when I turned my attention in the simulcast area to the Fair Grounds monitor for a non-winners of one allowance. The first thing that caught my eye was that nearly half the field had scratched. I can't say for sure, but the way the betting played out my guess would be that the opposing trainers knew something about my pick, Bobby's Wicked One. He was 1/9 until moments before post time when he "floated up" to 1/5. Right to the front and won in a gallop, while under wraps. I had tripled the bet and that was the easiest $3 I've ever won at the races (well, maybe not THE easiest but pretty easy!).
Ran 8th in the Aqueduct finale and then it was time for the big race, the Grade 2 Holy Bull for colts eyeing the Florida Derby and then onto Kentucky. I wanted to beat the favorite when I had read who was running. But in looking over the past performances Maximus Mischief just looked so, SO much faster and better than the rest of these and the GP analysts all agreed he had "the look" of a real Derby runner. I liked his outside draw in post 8 because I thought he'd sit off any longshot front runner. Instead he dueled with one, got to the front in the stretch but then was run down by a 26/1 winner and a 99/1 second place horse. WOW. Lost at Santa Anita and at Tampa before the finale at Gulfstream. Honest Mischief was debuting for Chad Brown and he looked to have some real talent. The only "issue" was the rail draw. Sure enough, the 6/5 favorite broke a step or two slowly but he glided up three-wide on the turn and I thought to myself, "he really IS this good." Moved to the front in mid-stretch and then inside the 16th pole another colt came blowing by. The winner paid $13.40, with the leading jockey, Luis Saez on.....and trained by Todd Pletcher. Sigh.....will I ever learn? Just as I was heading out they were going into the gate for the Grade 3 Robert Lewis at Santa Anita - their first step towards the Derby. I liked Bob Baffert's lightly raced Mucho Gusto to take down the multiple graded stakes winning Gunmetal Gray. Sure enough, 'Gusto took over on the far turn, and just when the closers, like 'Gray, made their move into the lane he let out another notch and ran away to wrap up my THIRTEEN win day!
I went back to my seat and within minutes they were approaching the gate for the second at Gulfstream, a non-winners of three lifetime on the grass. The first thing I'd noted when handicapping the race was that I did NOT like the favorite and thought I'd get a fair price on Sapphire Jubilee. I was hovering between 2/1 and 5/2 when they announced, "Ladies and gentlemen, may I have your attention for a late scratch by order of the stewards....." The favorite was out and my odds plummeted to even money and now I WAS the favorite. He pressed the pace to the turn, put a head in front at the top of the lane and dueled for a 16th of a mile, then drew off! TWO IN A ROW!
I wished I'd had more on 'Jubilee with the favorite scratching, but I was trying to stick to the plan! I headed upstairs to do a video because my next bet wasn't until the third here at Gulfstream. On my way to my seat I stopped and made the next three bets - here, at Tampa, and at Laurel. The Laurel race went off first and was about to go off shortly after I made the bets, so I stayed to watch on the simulcast TV sets. Again, this was a race with two horses who'd faced each other and finished nearly even. But I thought Super Buddy would have a decided edge today. The fourth at Laurel was an allowance event going a one-turn mile. When they'd met last time out they were going two turns and a mile and a sixteenth. May not seem like much but this is significant. First, you'd think that the shorter distance would help the other horse who'd been caught by 'Buddy late last time, but instead it figured to be the opposite! The rival was 1-for-13 locally AND had all his wins going two turns. By comparison Super Buddy had three wins locally and had TWICE won at this one-turn mile. He went off at 9/5 and tracked the leaders to the turn then blew by as much the best - THREE IN A ROW!
My three race winning streak had been with a double investment and two minimum plays, but the next two were both triple investments! First up, the fourth at Gulfstream. This was a claiming event going two turns on the grass and it appeared like it would be REALLY hard to beat the likely short-priced favorite, Montclair who was 6/5 in the program. Sent out by white-hot trainer Jason Servis (44% overall) this horse was beaten only two lengths in the $100K Claiming Crown Emerald - from which the winner had come back to win again. And that loss had snapped a four-race winning streak. He went off at 4/5, which I thought was a touch high considering how good he looked on paper. He was on the rail in mid-pack heading into the turn when he launched his bid. Up the rail until they hit the top of the lane where Paco Lopez swung him into the clear. He reached the leader but that one would not give in......PHOTO FINISH! I thought I had it and was just making a "selfie video" when it was announced there would be a STEWARD'S INQUIRY into the stretch run involving the top two finishers. I watched the replay and honestly didn't see anything......it soon became official and I had my FOURTH winner and was cashing for almost $30 on this ticket!
Within minutes it was post time in Tampa for their third race, a non-winners of three lifetime. As I wrote in my analysis and said on my video - either the morning line odds maker is WAY off or I am because to me, Little Toe was a standout in here and he was listed at 4/1 odds in the program! The field of seven had four in here who's form was SO bad that if they won it would truly been a huge surprise. Two others were coming off of wins vs. 2-lifetime rivals - the step up from 2L to 3L is significant - AND both of them showed ELEVEN STRAIGHT LOSSES prior to that last out win. What were the odds that they would win right back stepping up in class? That left Little Toe who was also the ONLY one dropping in class, duh. He did take some late money but still was a healthy 9/5 as they left the gate. Right to the front and no one ever gained ground on him. WHOOOO HOOOO! Five, count 'em, FIVE in a row!
The numbers evened out as I went on an hour-long, four race skid.....7th at 5/1 (a Todd Pletcher 3yo in a MSW), 2nd when caught late at 5/2 at Laurel; 6th at 6/5 at GP; and 6th again at 2/1 in Tampa. The sixth at Laurel was yet again a selection that typically I avoid. I do NOT like last out maiden winners when facing winners for the first time. But Malabar had been impressive in his last out maiden win and this $5K non-winners of two lifetime looked especially weak. On top of that he appeared to be the lone speed, so I doubled the bet. Broke from post ten and quickly was in a pressing spot. Before they reached the far turn he grabbed the lead and with each and every stride he drew farther and farther away from the field, effortlessly.
Chalk up another win (my sixth) and I was cashing for $15 on the 1-2 favorite. The sixth at Aqueduct was a second level allowance and Preservationist looked like a deserving favorite (8/5 in the program). He'd been third in a sprint three weeks ago as the 8/5 favorite BUT was coming off an eleven month break. With one under his belt and the stretch to a one-turn mile he looked good. He tracked in fourth to the far turn, then was really pushed hard to try and reach the leaders. Not at all impressive, but he kept grinding away and in the final fifty yards he got to the wire in time.
Holy Bull Day Highlights Part 1
I am hoping that many handicappers - and I've already read this once - consider that maybe she's not quite as good as advertised so that she'll be a fair price next time out. Because to me, the gutsy win over Grade 3 company, when short, and going seven panels was impressive. Another noteworthy anecdote.....the gal who takes the tickets. After I'd won my fifth in a row she came over to my seat and said, "How are you doing? Listen, if you'd like me to take your picture like you usually have taken, I'd be happy to do that." I thought that was so nice that she'd come to my seat and offer. So in my mind I thought if/when Feedback won this Grade 3 Forward Gal I'd ask. And that's the pic you see at the top of the page. I personally think it's one of the best recent photos of me :) Less than ten minutes later I was looking up at the simulcast broadcast from Laurel watching Nick Papagiogio race in a starter optional claiming at Laurel. It was going a mile and a sixteenth and 'Nick had never been two turns and did NOT have the top speed figures. But he had closed ground in a race where the DRF track variant indicated that would be difficult indeed. And what really sold me was the DRF's Marcus Hersch, who rarely likes favorites made the comment that he was "....as close to a standout as you can get...." He tracked the leader into the turn and took off to draw off very impressively. But he was also bet to run that way as the 1-2 favorite. Still, he made my ninth win today :)
Missed at Tampa when my 3yo maiden didn't fire. But right away we were on the turf at the Fair Grounds for their feature, the Maestri Memorial for 3yo's. Marquee Prince looked solid to me after back-to-back wins with improving speed figures. The 'Prince saved ground while tracking the leaders through the far turn and then when asked seemed to be gaining but not with a sudden burst of acceleration. He was closing in on the leaders at the sixteenth pole, but it looked to me like he was going to run out of room. But as he split horses about one hundred yards out he seemed to find a new gear and shot by to finish a winner, going away. Best of all he was a nice $6.20 payoff so I cashed for another $30 and change.
Todd Pletcher's Moretti didn't fire in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct and I was a late running third in the Grade 3 Swale here at Gulfstream (my second choice, the favorite, won handily). Next up was the finale at Laurel and non-winners of two lifetime going two turns. I would have had no problem with anyone saying they thought Bobby G was a vulnerable favorite in a cheap race. But he had been facing much better 2-lifetime runners in New York and just looked much the best. He was at 4/5 - won by over a pole without being asked to run. Win number ELEVEN!
They literally had just crossed the finish line when I turned my attention in the simulcast area to the Fair Grounds monitor for a non-winners of one allowance. The first thing that caught my eye was that nearly half the field had scratched. I can't say for sure, but the way the betting played out my guess would be that the opposing trainers knew something about my pick, Bobby's Wicked One. He was 1/9 until moments before post time when he "floated up" to 1/5. Right to the front and won in a gallop, while under wraps. I had tripled the bet and that was the easiest $3 I've ever won at the races (well, maybe not THE easiest but pretty easy!).
Ran 8th in the Aqueduct finale and then it was time for the big race, the Grade 2 Holy Bull for colts eyeing the Florida Derby and then onto Kentucky. I wanted to beat the favorite when I had read who was running. But in looking over the past performances Maximus Mischief just looked so, SO much faster and better than the rest of these and the GP analysts all agreed he had "the look" of a real Derby runner. I liked his outside draw in post 8 because I thought he'd sit off any longshot front runner. Instead he dueled with one, got to the front in the stretch but then was run down by a 26/1 winner and a 99/1 second place horse. WOW. Lost at Santa Anita and at Tampa before the finale at Gulfstream. Honest Mischief was debuting for Chad Brown and he looked to have some real talent. The only "issue" was the rail draw. Sure enough, the 6/5 favorite broke a step or two slowly but he glided up three-wide on the turn and I thought to myself, "he really IS this good." Moved to the front in mid-stretch and then inside the 16th pole another colt came blowing by. The winner paid $13.40, with the leading jockey, Luis Saez on.....and trained by Todd Pletcher. Sigh.....will I ever learn? Just as I was heading out they were going into the gate for the Grade 3 Robert Lewis at Santa Anita - their first step towards the Derby. I liked Bob Baffert's lightly raced Mucho Gusto to take down the multiple graded stakes winning Gunmetal Gray. Sure enough, 'Gusto took over on the far turn, and just when the closers, like 'Gray, made their move into the lane he let out another notch and ran away to wrap up my THIRTEEN win day!
Holy Bull Day Highlights Part 2
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