January 30 - February 3
Two excellent days AT Gulfstream highlighted the end of January and start of February. And despite the "road to the Florida Derby" beginning we have NO IDEA who the likely players and/or winner might be on the colt side, but saw perhaps the emergence of a superstar on the filly side.
Wednesday January 30
Last weekend while I was at the Pegasus Cup with my buddy Keith, Kim had driven to the west coast of Florida to get her parents settled into their condo in Englewood, Florida. Her twin sister was set to arrive THIS Friday at the condo and my Mom is arriving next Tuesday. So, in an effort to get her parents over here, see her twin, and to have all this done prior to my Mom's arrival my wife brought her parents over here Sunday afternoon. Certainly enjoyed the visit, but one of the highlights was taking my father-in-law Ed out to the races with me on Wednesday. The temperatures were in the upper 60's, may even have reached 70 while the midwest was suffering through record low temperatures being labeled a "polar vortex." My buddy Jim in Minneapolis, who will join me on my next racing adventure in Arkansas in a few weeks, saw their "feels like" temps go to -56 degrees! WOW, so lucky to be in sunny south Florida and at the races today.
I always make myself the promise each winter that I will make it out to Gulfstream during the week because for so, SO many years when I was working I'd look out the windows of Room 314 at Cypress Bay High School and say, "If I were retired, I'd be at Gulfstream today!" And yet as I awoke today, this would be THE FIRST weekday I'd been here. It always seemed to be something. I promise to try harder! I picked today because I had selections in four of the first five races, including a legitimate (I thought) "Best Bet." In the opener I thought it came down to two Tampa shippers but was surprised when we walked in to see on the board another runner was the favorite that I had dismissed. I was second at 9/2 odds while the favorite won. My pick scratched in the second and the third was the one race I was passing. The fourth promised to be a very short priced winner if I was right. Gran Bonita Chic had run well for trainer Saffie Joseph and had won two in a row and on paper looked much the best. But at these lower claiming levels, consistency is not their hallmark. Then there was the named rider, J L Samuel. Who? Right. I googled him and discovered he was a promising Caribbean rider and to his credit he'd been on board 'Chic for her last two wins. She was odds on but turning for home was struggling to catch the runaway leader, back almost half a dozen turning for home. But she was resolute and was JUST up in time!
Next up in the fifth was my "BEST BET!" Todd Pletcher had been having a quiet meet, and that was one reason my results have been "good" but not great, especially on the bottom line. This was a turf sprint for maiden three-year-old claimers. Adamant was listed as the 7/5 favorite in the program based on her debut in New York. She'd blown the break, but had finished with some interest to be fourth. The connections of Pletcher and top rider John Velazquez made her the obvious choice. The 2/1 second choice went right to the front and while she had mild pressure she was not having to go all that fast - not good for my closing choice. At the top of the lane Johnny V got his filly into the clear and began to close. I was pretty sure she would reel in the leader, but it wasn't decisive by any stretch of the imagination. Still, she was up in time and I had my second winner and we'd had a great afternoon at the races!
Before we left I made my last two bets then Ed & I set out for home. I had posted the photo of me (above) on Facebook and had written that I "apologized" for enjoying the weather. Drew several responses from friends and family freezing their T-hinders off :) Later that afternoon I opened the replays to watch first, McErin in the ninth, an entry level allowance sprint. He figured to be short odds and he was stakes quality. The problem was he was a front runner and there looked to be several others who wanted the front end. BUT, he was trained by Jason Servis who's just killing it this winter with well over 40% winners, and by the numbers only one Beyer figure of the combined seventy-five races run by McErin's rivals would challenge either of his last two starts....and that had been posted in October 2017 by a runner who consistently ran double digits slower. I thought McErin was nearly as certain a winner as Adamant had been - but then that was close! He burst out of the gate and was clear by a length....on the turn the margin was three lengths and he wasn't even being asked. At the top of the stretch it was half a dozen to the nearest pursuer who was being driven to keep up while jockey Irad Ortiz sat motionless on McErin. He finally let him run and the final margin for about a sixteenth of a mile then wrapped up on him as he coasted home the easiest of winners!
The final play of the day came in the tenth and final race, a maiden claiming race going two turns on the turf. As it turned out this race became a kind of "theme" to the week. One thing I've often said about handicapping is that "The Rule" in handicapping is, "there are NO rules!" Here was an example of the kind of race that I had an unwritten rule NOT to play. I don't like races which have several runners who faced each other last time, and the few instances I do play those kind of events I always look for a new face. But today, More Mo looked like a standout. He was lightly raced and it looked like he'd had a bit of trouble on December 26. I went back and watched the replay and he had had a world of trouble, but came flying to lose by less than a length. With a rider switch to the hot riding Irad Ortiz and a smooth trip today he looked to be a solid pick. I could tell Ortiz had a lot of horse under him as they hit the far turn and he was saving ground. Swung five-wide to get a clear path and just blew by to win going away!
Four wins from five selections and I'll have a tidy sum of cash to collect when I head out to the races for Holy Bull Day on Saturday!
Thursday January 31
It's hard enough to make money at the races when a lot of the winners can be found by good handicapping. But it's even harder when it's so obvious that they are minuscule prices in the program. Such was the case with Race 2 today. Be A Hero was entered in a $6.25K sprint which was restricted to runners who'd not won since the end of July. He looked good in and of himself in this spot, but then you scanned the rest of the field. Woeful. Now note that 'Hero's trainer was the leading conditioner at this point, Jorge Navarro and you knew everyone would see what I was seeing. But the prohibitive 2/5 program odds nearly guaranteed I'd only get 1/5 at post time, if that. While a near certain winner I wasn't about to make him even "prime time" in a restricted $6.25K race! But he ran to his odds. Pressed the leader for a quarter of a mile then he was done playing around. Drew off by eight plus widening lengths without having to take a deep breath!
Passed two races and then was second at 1-2 odds when Silly Factor looked to have dead aim on the leader as they spun out of the turn, but could not get by in a photo finish. The sixth was my "best" of the day in an entry level allowance that followed the same "theme" as More Mo in the Wednesday finale. This was an optional-allowance claimer and my choice was Souper Scat Daddy. The "problem" was that the race he was exiting - when 2nd - from January 10 saw the 1-2-3-4-and 5 finishers back today. Really don't usually play those kind of races, but like yesterday, 'Daddy had multiple reasons for me to "break the rule." First, he was making just his second career start when he ran second against these. Like More Mo he suffered through a brutal trip, and like 'Mo I watched the replay and noted not only his trouble but the ideal trips the others had. Again, like with Mo a smooth trip was all that was needed, I thought. The last out winner went right to the front under Paco Lopez and set solid but not too fast fractions. Souper Scat Daddy tracked him waiting his cue. In the stretch Jose Ortiz asked and he responded but the leader was stubborn. Heads up and heads down for a furlong until nearing the final 100 yards 'Daddy edged to the front and I had my second winner of the day.
The last two races on my list saw me finish last at 5/2 and then in the finale my pick, Sleeping Giant went right to the front in a claiming event sprinting on the turf. Pressured all the way, he still held the lead fifty yards from home but was nailed on the line at 3/1 odds. Sigh.....
Friday February 1
Close but no cigar Webby - that's the story today. Closing strongly in the fifth, second in a photo. A Todd Pletcher 3yo, second best behind a runaway 8/1 winner. Had the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in the seventh, weakening fourth. My pick scratched in the sixth and I was a dead-heat second in a three-way photo finish in the finale. Sigh, on to the BIG DAY!
What a great day to be at the races! I've said many times - because we are SO busy and travel so much - that there are six Saturdays during the winter that I will not make any plans on those days because I want to be here at Gulfstream: Opening Day, Sunshine Millions Day, Pegasus Day, Fountain of Youth Day, Florida Derby Day, and today.....Holy Bull Day! By the time the final race was run I'd cashed on THIRTEEN races over 40%! Click HERE to read today's story!
Sunday February 3: Sweetest Chant Day / Super Bowl Sunday
The forecast from early in the week on had been there would be a good chance of rain on Friday and it was nearly certain that Saturday would be filled with showers and even thunderstorms. So by Thursday management at Gulfstream decided to take two of the stakes from the Saturday card - both turf races and move them to today. As it turned out BOTH Friday and Saturday were glorious days in Hallandale Beach and there wasn't really a need to make this move, but it did make for a big day on Sunday. Because Kim wasn't coming home until Monday I toyed with the idea of heading out today. But in the end decided I'd rather stay home and work on the videos and recap from Saturday, do the laundry, get my hair cut, pay bills, you know....stuff. And I could watch the races live online which would end shortly before the start of the big game. I can't say for sure, but as I handicapped for today I was inclined to think I might go to the track. That MAY have led to me having more selections than I would have, and once I decided not to go I wondered about re-evaluating, but in the end I stuck with my original picks - seven of them.
I was a distant 7th in the opener, the winner being the favorite who I didn't even consider. Passed the second. In the third I probably, in retrospect, should have upped the bet. Easy to say now knowing the result, but I thought immediately when I looked at the race that Treatherlikeastar would be a short priced favorite and I KNEW she wouldn't win. I liked the chances of Grace's Dream who was going second off the claim - AND like so many other winners this week, she was facing two who'd beaten her before but today looked like the right spot if Tyler Gafflione could get her to relax off the speed of the favorite. The race played out exactly as I saw it......'Grace made her move spinning out of the turn and I could tell the favorite would NOT have a response to the challenge. Sailed on by and scored at a nice $6.20, letting me start the day by collecting over $30!
Ran an even third in the fifth and then my worst fears came to pass in the sixth with my "Best Bet" of the afternoon. Peru laid over this starter field after having run in graded stakes. The only "issue" was that she was a closer and we were only going a mile without a projected speed duel. Still, "class tells on grass" and she looked to make short work of these. Made a strong middle move to get within range, but then did not persevere, barely holding on for fourth. I had been watching live up to this point and I won't say I was disgusted, but I decided to watch some TV and check back later. When I opened the replays the next race was a maiden special on the turf. Two things jumped out at me - (1) this race was a complete toss up and (2) I did NOT like the likely favorite. I went with Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey's Cover Model who was parked in post eleven with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez who was 12/1 in the program. She made sense and right away Johnny V got her into a prompting position tracking what I thought would be the vulnerable favorite. When they turned for home the favorite quit and Cover Model opened up and took off....and check the price!
Whooooo hooooo! Now that's what I'm talking about! Made the day, and while I didn't profit, the Cover Model score guaranteed that I'd nearly break even and hold my numbers for the week. In the remainder of the picks I failed to score again. In the co-featured Dania Beach Todd Pletcher's Current was third for me at 5/2; missed in the tenth when my pick, the favorite rallied belatedly to be second but in a different zip code to the winner; in the co-featured Grade 3 Sweetest Chant I was third at 3/1 with a Chad Brown filly on the turf. And in the finale at 12/1 in a MSW turf sprint that also looked wide open. For the longest time I thought lightning would strike twice as he prompted the pace and forged to the front at the 16th pole, but he was nailed on the wire and was a photo-finish third.
For the week I was 21-for-53, a sharp 40% and ended up a profitable winner for the week. But here's the lesson to be learned and I hate, just HATE to admit it. Throughout the meet trainer Todd Pletcher just has been "another good trainer." If you look back at previous Gulfstream Championship Meets, especially last year's (which admittedly was the BEST winter I've ever had), I was scoring all the time and often at prices with Pletcher runners, especially 3yo maidens and long layoff returnees. And while Adamant was the "BET of the Day" on Wednesday from the Pletcher barn, her nose win was typical of the wins I've had with his horses, and his no-show off-the-board finishers were far more typical to date. So much so, and here it comes.....you know how this is going to end......that I began looking elsewhere for winners. If you read the whole story from Saturday you know that while my pick in the finale PROBABLY WAS the best horse, the truth is he couldn't resist the Pletcher winner; and the winner today in the finale, yes another Pletcher 3yo maiden. And check the prices.....sigh
Had I followed what I ALWAYS do and gone with a simple $10 WIN bet on both I'd have had not only two more wins, but would have collected over $160. When will I ever learn?
Thursday January 31
It's hard enough to make money at the races when a lot of the winners can be found by good handicapping. But it's even harder when it's so obvious that they are minuscule prices in the program. Such was the case with Race 2 today. Be A Hero was entered in a $6.25K sprint which was restricted to runners who'd not won since the end of July. He looked good in and of himself in this spot, but then you scanned the rest of the field. Woeful. Now note that 'Hero's trainer was the leading conditioner at this point, Jorge Navarro and you knew everyone would see what I was seeing. But the prohibitive 2/5 program odds nearly guaranteed I'd only get 1/5 at post time, if that. While a near certain winner I wasn't about to make him even "prime time" in a restricted $6.25K race! But he ran to his odds. Pressed the leader for a quarter of a mile then he was done playing around. Drew off by eight plus widening lengths without having to take a deep breath!
Passed two races and then was second at 1-2 odds when Silly Factor looked to have dead aim on the leader as they spun out of the turn, but could not get by in a photo finish. The sixth was my "best" of the day in an entry level allowance that followed the same "theme" as More Mo in the Wednesday finale. This was an optional-allowance claimer and my choice was Souper Scat Daddy. The "problem" was that the race he was exiting - when 2nd - from January 10 saw the 1-2-3-4-and 5 finishers back today. Really don't usually play those kind of races, but like yesterday, 'Daddy had multiple reasons for me to "break the rule." First, he was making just his second career start when he ran second against these. Like More Mo he suffered through a brutal trip, and like 'Mo I watched the replay and noted not only his trouble but the ideal trips the others had. Again, like with Mo a smooth trip was all that was needed, I thought. The last out winner went right to the front under Paco Lopez and set solid but not too fast fractions. Souper Scat Daddy tracked him waiting his cue. In the stretch Jose Ortiz asked and he responded but the leader was stubborn. Heads up and heads down for a furlong until nearing the final 100 yards 'Daddy edged to the front and I had my second winner of the day.
The last two races on my list saw me finish last at 5/2 and then in the finale my pick, Sleeping Giant went right to the front in a claiming event sprinting on the turf. Pressured all the way, he still held the lead fifty yards from home but was nailed on the line at 3/1 odds. Sigh.....
Friday February 1
Close but no cigar Webby - that's the story today. Closing strongly in the fifth, second in a photo. A Todd Pletcher 3yo, second best behind a runaway 8/1 winner. Had the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in the seventh, weakening fourth. My pick scratched in the sixth and I was a dead-heat second in a three-way photo finish in the finale. Sigh, on to the BIG DAY!
Saturday February 2: Holy Bull Day
What a great day to be at the races! I've said many times - because we are SO busy and travel so much - that there are six Saturdays during the winter that I will not make any plans on those days because I want to be here at Gulfstream: Opening Day, Sunshine Millions Day, Pegasus Day, Fountain of Youth Day, Florida Derby Day, and today.....Holy Bull Day! By the time the final race was run I'd cashed on THIRTEEN races over 40%! Click HERE to read today's story!
Holy Bull Day Highlights Part 1
Holy Bull Day Highlights Part 2
The forecast from early in the week on had been there would be a good chance of rain on Friday and it was nearly certain that Saturday would be filled with showers and even thunderstorms. So by Thursday management at Gulfstream decided to take two of the stakes from the Saturday card - both turf races and move them to today. As it turned out BOTH Friday and Saturday were glorious days in Hallandale Beach and there wasn't really a need to make this move, but it did make for a big day on Sunday. Because Kim wasn't coming home until Monday I toyed with the idea of heading out today. But in the end decided I'd rather stay home and work on the videos and recap from Saturday, do the laundry, get my hair cut, pay bills, you know....stuff. And I could watch the races live online which would end shortly before the start of the big game. I can't say for sure, but as I handicapped for today I was inclined to think I might go to the track. That MAY have led to me having more selections than I would have, and once I decided not to go I wondered about re-evaluating, but in the end I stuck with my original picks - seven of them.
I was a distant 7th in the opener, the winner being the favorite who I didn't even consider. Passed the second. In the third I probably, in retrospect, should have upped the bet. Easy to say now knowing the result, but I thought immediately when I looked at the race that Treatherlikeastar would be a short priced favorite and I KNEW she wouldn't win. I liked the chances of Grace's Dream who was going second off the claim - AND like so many other winners this week, she was facing two who'd beaten her before but today looked like the right spot if Tyler Gafflione could get her to relax off the speed of the favorite. The race played out exactly as I saw it......'Grace made her move spinning out of the turn and I could tell the favorite would NOT have a response to the challenge. Sailed on by and scored at a nice $6.20, letting me start the day by collecting over $30!
Ran an even third in the fifth and then my worst fears came to pass in the sixth with my "Best Bet" of the afternoon. Peru laid over this starter field after having run in graded stakes. The only "issue" was that she was a closer and we were only going a mile without a projected speed duel. Still, "class tells on grass" and she looked to make short work of these. Made a strong middle move to get within range, but then did not persevere, barely holding on for fourth. I had been watching live up to this point and I won't say I was disgusted, but I decided to watch some TV and check back later. When I opened the replays the next race was a maiden special on the turf. Two things jumped out at me - (1) this race was a complete toss up and (2) I did NOT like the likely favorite. I went with Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey's Cover Model who was parked in post eleven with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez who was 12/1 in the program. She made sense and right away Johnny V got her into a prompting position tracking what I thought would be the vulnerable favorite. When they turned for home the favorite quit and Cover Model opened up and took off....and check the price!
For the week I was 21-for-53, a sharp 40% and ended up a profitable winner for the week. But here's the lesson to be learned and I hate, just HATE to admit it. Throughout the meet trainer Todd Pletcher just has been "another good trainer." If you look back at previous Gulfstream Championship Meets, especially last year's (which admittedly was the BEST winter I've ever had), I was scoring all the time and often at prices with Pletcher runners, especially 3yo maidens and long layoff returnees. And while Adamant was the "BET of the Day" on Wednesday from the Pletcher barn, her nose win was typical of the wins I've had with his horses, and his no-show off-the-board finishers were far more typical to date. So much so, and here it comes.....you know how this is going to end......that I began looking elsewhere for winners. If you read the whole story from Saturday you know that while my pick in the finale PROBABLY WAS the best horse, the truth is he couldn't resist the Pletcher winner; and the winner today in the finale, yes another Pletcher 3yo maiden. And check the prices.....sigh
Had I followed what I ALWAYS do and gone with a simple $10 WIN bet on both I'd have had not only two more wins, but would have collected over $160. When will I ever learn?
No comments:
Post a Comment