January 23 - 27
One of the biggest Saturdays of the week highlighted the best of the winter to date for me. Unlike the previous six weeks of racing action I was able to have winning days on EVERY day of the week :) And in spite of the dreary nature of the weather for Pegasus World Cup Day on Saturday it was one of THE best days to enjoy thoroughbred racing. Here's how the week went down.....
Wednesday January 23
Well, it wasn't the start to the week I was looking for as I failed to get home back-to-back 3/5 favorites in the first two selections of the week. But in the 6th I had my "best" of the day. I'm Cardinal was the program favorite in an entry level allowance going five furlongs on the turf. He had top rider Luis Saez up and could very easily control the pace from the get-go. Trainer Georgina Baxter was a 30% winner with turf sprinters. AND last time out, while I don't put a lot of stock into the new track bias symbols used by the DRF it was notable that speedster I'm Cardinal was running over a surface that was playing kindly to closers. Right to the front he was pressured through a sharp :44.2 half mile. But as they rounded into the stretch I'm Cardinal asserted himself and he drew off readily. I was able to collect a big payoff of $45 as he somehow was allowed to leave the gate at odds of 2/1. Thank you everyone for trying to find another win contender.
Todd Pletcher's Divide was 4/1 in the next race and was in contention until the far turn when he failed to go on with it. In the 9th the race looked to go strictly through Rose M who was first off the claim for Gilberto Zerpa who is wildly successful with those, striking at a huge 46% hit rate while jockey Emisael Jaramillo was winning at near identical 45% for the barn. A big bullet work sealed the deal for me. But, I didn't go in for a lot since it was a 2-lifetime event. She tracked the leaders three wide down the long run on the backside in this one-turn mile race, then edged up and took the lead willingly. With each stride through the lane she put more and more daylight between her and the rest of the field. And I had my second winner of the day to seal a winning afternoon.
Late running fifth in the tenth and led into the lane before weakening in the finale. So for the day I finished two-for-seven but in the black :)
Thursday January 24
The weather forecast called for rain so I handicapped with the thinking we'd be off the turf. So my choice in the opener was an "off-the-turf only" pick. But it stayed ON the grass and he was 2nd at a nice 5/1 price. In the third I liked Dragon Moon regardless of the surface. Stayed on the turf - fourth at 5/2 odds. without really threatening. As I wrote in my analysis we WERE talking about lightly raced 3yo maidens in for a cheap $12.5K tag so it's not like they are seriously predictable. BUT with that said, the program favorite looked awfully, AWFULLY legitimate. Subtle Hope had only been out three times and in her two turf tries she had been soundly beaten. In her one lone dirt try she was a good second, and all three races had been for double today's price tag. Now the Beyer figure she earned a 48 - nothing to write home about. But in comparison she looked formidable. The other last race Beyers were 39, 0, FTS, 36, 24, 17, and 39. She broke from the rail and was hustled to the front and quickly had two lengths on the field. NEVER threatened, going wire to wire as the 3/5 favorite.
About an hour later the Gulfstream on-air analysts were debating just how low would be the daily double hooking the 9th and 10th race where trainer Jason Servis - winning at a nearly 40% clip here - had the odds on favorite in both. In the paddock prior to the first of the two races it was paying less than even money. Well, that turned out to be stealing as both Maximum Security and Mybigitalianfriend romped home under wraps - the double paid $4 :) Because I thought both would be such short odds and while I thought they were likely winners, they didn't seem like "prime time" plays to me, especially at short odds so I only invested the minimum. Still, I had them both and finished the day with three wins from just four selections, and another profitable day in the bank!
Friday January 25
Today's card featured a series of five $60K starter stakes at the end of the card and as I began analyzing them I thought the names were odd. Typically stakes are named for people, places or former great horses. And the names of these five were obviously none of the above. The were the Chrysaor, the Eos, the Bellophan, the Perseus, and the Andromeda. I googled the first and smiled when I saw that it (and upon subsequent research) and the other four were all names from Greek mythology......just like Pegasus, and Saturday IS Pegasus World Cup Day. Very clever. And I'm sure very VERY few handicappers would have noticed that, so I emailed Gulfstream and told them I did appreciate the cleverness! In the opener BOTH of the program favorites were first off the claim for barns that excelled with them and I went with Saffie Joseph's Barbarossa. The 6/5 favorite went right to the front and turned for home with a clear advantage and I was already thinking about how nice it was to start the day on a winning note when both she and the other favorite were nailed on the wire by a 14/1 longshot. Racing, you gotta love it! Passed the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th. In the sixth Balaban figured to be favored in a maiden claiming five-furlong turf sprint. He'd only been out twice - the first was at Monmouth where he was a sharp third against better than he'd see today. The second was an off-the-turf affair that was easy to draw a line through. The Beyer earned in that third beat every number in the field except three runners who were 0-for-17, 0-for-15, and 0-for-22. There was a first timer from the Larry Rivelli barn and as I wrote, if this were in Chicago at Arlington that would be the play, but not here. Lastly, Servis - winning at 38% overall - was the winningest trainer in North America with turf sprinters and today he had Irad Ortiz who's scoring at an insane 49% for Servis here. Wow-squared! As I watched the live feed I checked the multi-race payoffs and saw Balaban was an overwhelming choice so I upped the $15 bet to a BET of the Day $25 play. He tracked the 5/1 leader into the lane and looked to be ready to blow by.....but he never did. In the final fifty yards it was oh-so-close.....PHOTO finish! I thought I'd won, but the slow-mo replay was not conclusive. Oh brother.....but as you can see in the photo (above left) he was the winner by the narrowest of nose hairs!
It was so close that if I'd had the official runner-up I'd be howling, but I didn't and I cashed for a big $60 payoff! Pressed the pace before weakening to 7th in the 7th, then led into the stretch - seemingly in command - at 3/5 before the 7/2 second choice blew by. But in the final bet of the day, the original "BEST BET" of the day came in the Perseus Starter Stakes going seven furlongs. The program favorite was Uno Mas Modelo who had run twice at the meet already. In his last seven starts he'd won five of them with the only two losses coming in graded stakes. The try in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at nine furlongs at Belmont was just a dumb idea for a sprinter. In the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector here he was a good 4th. But his first start here was the most impressive. On Opening Day he completely missed the break going today's 7f distance in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit, but he was up in the shadow of the wire. He laid over the field here I thought, even though GP race track announcer Pete Aiello said on the pre-race day show he thought he was vulnerable. Duh Pete. Broke cleanly, tracked the leaders in fourth until heads turned for home and then blew by to win going away as much, MUCH the best. Cashed for nearly $35 to close out a 2-for-5 afternoon with a solid profit yet again. WHOOO HOOOOO! This is some serious momentum heading into Pegasus World Cup Day!
To see the wonderful tale from today, click HERE - what a great day with four wins here on track and ELEVEN wins overall. Included in the two wins at Gulfstream were BOTH of the Pegasus races!
It was a wonderful day to be sure.
Sunday January 27
Because of the vast amounts of rain we got Friday night and all day Saturday I KNEW we'd be off the turf today, but I wasn't positive. I'd had such success through the week and on Saturday I seriously considered just skipping the Sunday card to "preserve" the great week I'd had. But I decided before doing that I'd want to see just how many "live" selections I'd have today. As it turned out from the twelve race card I'd passed on six races and there were four selections on the grass, so I was left with only two "live" races. So I stuck with them. The fourth was a maiden claimer and the favorite, Singsong Bird looked legitimate in a weak field. Flying late, but couldn't quite get to the winner, second. And in the tenth I'd doubled the bet on Browns Gap. He was an old veteran warrior who loved to win. But what tempted me was that trainer Saffie Joseph not only had claimed him last out (27% first off the claim), but had re-claimed him for THE FOURTH TIME! He must see something in him special. And today Tyler Gaffione was on board - he is winning at a huge 45% when on Joseph runners. I was surprised that GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti did not like him, but it helped my price as Brown came rolling up late into the short stretch/first finish line and was edging clear late at even money. I'm a winner at Gulfstream again!
But the outcome of the day overall depended on the stakes races in Texas today. At Sam Houston Race Park it was their "Racing Festival" and featured six stakes races. I was able to get the past performances for free and I looked them over.
It was "obvious" to me that a near certain winner SHOULD come in the featured Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic. Originally I tabbed three stakes, all with double investment plays. But Sunday morning I revisited the past performances. I had picked Hogy to run down the speed in the Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint, but the more I looked at it I didn't think he was worthy of the play. He was FLYING late, but couldn't get within a length of the longshot winner and was in a very tight photo just to get second. Wise decision. In the eighth race, the Grade 3 John Connolly Turf Cup I thought Bigger Picture would repeat for the third year in a row. But as I went through the past performances again I still felt he'd win, but he'd not won since winning here last year. Maybe a year older, a step slower. Hmmmm. Decided to stay with the play but back down the bet to the minimum. He made a big middle move, swept by on the turn and drew off as easily best, nearly a pole to the good.
The last bet of the day and the week looked like a slam dunk. Multiple Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou was running in the Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic. OK, first, she is a "multiple" Gr 1 winner due to the comical and unbelievable DQ of champion Monomoy Girl in the $1 Million Cotillion on Pa Derby Day. Still, she is a multiple graded stakes winner and today's mile and a sixteenth IS her best distance. As I watched the live feed she opened up at prohibitive 1/9 odds. Maybe I should up the bet? Some of the comments by the two analysts in the paddock led me to compare the Beyer figures she had as they indicated she was a standout and I didn't remember it that way. And I was right, while she SHOULD win and had CLEARLY faced better, on the Beyer scale she was simply a length or so better. And then as the odds did NOT move from 1/9 I thought - why risk an additional $10 or $20 to win $1.00 or $2.00 extra? The win is a win and I'll take it if it comes. She was breaking from post seven in a field of seven AND this was her first start of the year with obviously bigger targets down the road. She was four wide into the turn before Mike Smith dropped her inside to save ground. But then the pace slowed dramatically and she would be forced 3-4 wide on the far turn and to rally from last. In mid-stretch it looked dicey but her big acceleration and class carried her to the wire just in time. You can see a much better look at how close it was in the second photo below.
So, for the day I was 3-for-4 and had another profitable day - and finished with 22 wins from 48 picks, a huge 46% for the week! WHOOOOO HOOOOO - Go me!
The weather forecast called for rain so I handicapped with the thinking we'd be off the turf. So my choice in the opener was an "off-the-turf only" pick. But it stayed ON the grass and he was 2nd at a nice 5/1 price. In the third I liked Dragon Moon regardless of the surface. Stayed on the turf - fourth at 5/2 odds. without really threatening. As I wrote in my analysis we WERE talking about lightly raced 3yo maidens in for a cheap $12.5K tag so it's not like they are seriously predictable. BUT with that said, the program favorite looked awfully, AWFULLY legitimate. Subtle Hope had only been out three times and in her two turf tries she had been soundly beaten. In her one lone dirt try she was a good second, and all three races had been for double today's price tag. Now the Beyer figure she earned a 48 - nothing to write home about. But in comparison she looked formidable. The other last race Beyers were 39, 0, FTS, 36, 24, 17, and 39. She broke from the rail and was hustled to the front and quickly had two lengths on the field. NEVER threatened, going wire to wire as the 3/5 favorite.
About an hour later the Gulfstream on-air analysts were debating just how low would be the daily double hooking the 9th and 10th race where trainer Jason Servis - winning at a nearly 40% clip here - had the odds on favorite in both. In the paddock prior to the first of the two races it was paying less than even money. Well, that turned out to be stealing as both Maximum Security and Mybigitalianfriend romped home under wraps - the double paid $4 :) Because I thought both would be such short odds and while I thought they were likely winners, they didn't seem like "prime time" plays to me, especially at short odds so I only invested the minimum. Still, I had them both and finished the day with three wins from just four selections, and another profitable day in the bank!
Friday January 25
It was so close that if I'd had the official runner-up I'd be howling, but I didn't and I cashed for a big $60 payoff! Pressed the pace before weakening to 7th in the 7th, then led into the stretch - seemingly in command - at 3/5 before the 7/2 second choice blew by. But in the final bet of the day, the original "BEST BET" of the day came in the Perseus Starter Stakes going seven furlongs. The program favorite was Uno Mas Modelo who had run twice at the meet already. In his last seven starts he'd won five of them with the only two losses coming in graded stakes. The try in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at nine furlongs at Belmont was just a dumb idea for a sprinter. In the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector here he was a good 4th. But his first start here was the most impressive. On Opening Day he completely missed the break going today's 7f distance in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit, but he was up in the shadow of the wire. He laid over the field here I thought, even though GP race track announcer Pete Aiello said on the pre-race day show he thought he was vulnerable. Duh Pete. Broke cleanly, tracked the leaders in fourth until heads turned for home and then blew by to win going away as much, MUCH the best. Cashed for nearly $35 to close out a 2-for-5 afternoon with a solid profit yet again. WHOOO HOOOOO! This is some serious momentum heading into Pegasus World Cup Day!
January 26: Pegasus World Cup Day
To see the wonderful tale from today, click HERE - what a great day with four wins here on track and ELEVEN wins overall. Included in the two wins at Gulfstream were BOTH of the Pegasus races!
Pegasus Day Highlights
It was a wonderful day to be sure.
Sunday January 27
Because of the vast amounts of rain we got Friday night and all day Saturday I KNEW we'd be off the turf today, but I wasn't positive. I'd had such success through the week and on Saturday I seriously considered just skipping the Sunday card to "preserve" the great week I'd had. But I decided before doing that I'd want to see just how many "live" selections I'd have today. As it turned out from the twelve race card I'd passed on six races and there were four selections on the grass, so I was left with only two "live" races. So I stuck with them. The fourth was a maiden claimer and the favorite, Singsong Bird looked legitimate in a weak field. Flying late, but couldn't quite get to the winner, second. And in the tenth I'd doubled the bet on Browns Gap. He was an old veteran warrior who loved to win. But what tempted me was that trainer Saffie Joseph not only had claimed him last out (27% first off the claim), but had re-claimed him for THE FOURTH TIME! He must see something in him special. And today Tyler Gaffione was on board - he is winning at a huge 45% when on Joseph runners. I was surprised that GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti did not like him, but it helped my price as Brown came rolling up late into the short stretch/first finish line and was edging clear late at even money. I'm a winner at Gulfstream again!
But the outcome of the day overall depended on the stakes races in Texas today. At Sam Houston Race Park it was their "Racing Festival" and featured six stakes races. I was able to get the past performances for free and I looked them over.
It was "obvious" to me that a near certain winner SHOULD come in the featured Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic. Originally I tabbed three stakes, all with double investment plays. But Sunday morning I revisited the past performances. I had picked Hogy to run down the speed in the Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint, but the more I looked at it I didn't think he was worthy of the play. He was FLYING late, but couldn't get within a length of the longshot winner and was in a very tight photo just to get second. Wise decision. In the eighth race, the Grade 3 John Connolly Turf Cup I thought Bigger Picture would repeat for the third year in a row. But as I went through the past performances again I still felt he'd win, but he'd not won since winning here last year. Maybe a year older, a step slower. Hmmmm. Decided to stay with the play but back down the bet to the minimum. He made a big middle move, swept by on the turn and drew off as easily best, nearly a pole to the good.
The last bet of the day and the week looked like a slam dunk. Multiple Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou was running in the Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic. OK, first, she is a "multiple" Gr 1 winner due to the comical and unbelievable DQ of champion Monomoy Girl in the $1 Million Cotillion on Pa Derby Day. Still, she is a multiple graded stakes winner and today's mile and a sixteenth IS her best distance. As I watched the live feed she opened up at prohibitive 1/9 odds. Maybe I should up the bet? Some of the comments by the two analysts in the paddock led me to compare the Beyer figures she had as they indicated she was a standout and I didn't remember it that way. And I was right, while she SHOULD win and had CLEARLY faced better, on the Beyer scale she was simply a length or so better. And then as the odds did NOT move from 1/9 I thought - why risk an additional $10 or $20 to win $1.00 or $2.00 extra? The win is a win and I'll take it if it comes. She was breaking from post seven in a field of seven AND this was her first start of the year with obviously bigger targets down the road. She was four wide into the turn before Mike Smith dropped her inside to save ground. But then the pace slowed dramatically and she would be forced 3-4 wide on the far turn and to rally from last. In mid-stretch it looked dicey but her big acceleration and class carried her to the wire just in time. You can see a much better look at how close it was in the second photo below.
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