The TWO Richest Races In North America
It was a very good day.....not only as a handicapper, but as an racing adventure. And that means more than it may sound like because the weather was far, FAR from "picture-post card" like. In fact early this morning I even hinted to Keith that if he were not visiting from up north I might have been tempted to stay home and play online. But I am SO glad we went and were a part of this great day of racing, the first REALLY big day on the national racing calendar. It was many months ago that I found tickets had gone on sale for today's big event, and I was happy that my buddy Keith agreed to come down and share the big day with me again, as he'd done last year. The event is pricey, but let's be fair - it's truly a world class event and in my opinion it's VERY much worth paying a "few extra dollars" for my usual seat that typically runs between $3 and $20 on a typical Championship Saturday afternoon of racing.
The local weather was in the mid-50s and gloomy with a steady rain as wee left the house today at about 10:am. We wanted to beat the crowd, get a nice, up-close parking spot (because of the weather) and get settled in with plenty of time before the 11:30 am first post. Before we left I had gone online and to no surprise found out that many of the races were off the turf. I had actually thought about re-handicapping the races that were off the turf, but then I rethought that.....I had felt like the card was really competitive and I was happy that I was disciplined enough in my initial betting strategy to not try and force any big bets. So I figured I would just pass the off-the-turf races unless there were circumstances that led to to a strong opinion. That was also my thinking about if any of my top picks scratched from either dirt or turf, just pass the race. Of course the first thing Keith and I did upon our arrival was to go to our seats and have the obligatory photo op.
It was encouraging that while it had rained and it was chilly, and there were off-and-on showers, our seats were NOT wet. As long as it didn't pour and/or have a lot of wind we'd be out of the weather. The first race was carded for 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 3yo maidens, and now it was off the grass. The perfect kind of race to pass. I found it interesting as I mentioned to Keith, that here you have a full field of turf maidens, lightly raced three-year-olds. Multiple scratches, the surface change, AND the sloppy track.....still, the crowd nailed the winner as the 6/5 favorite! In the second I had a Todd Pletcher runner who went off at a huge 15/1 price. Raced in contention throughout and outran his odds when a good fourth. The third race was the first of the NINE stakes events, this was the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. With the winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint having a rematch with the 2nd place finisher of that race - they were a neck apart! - I figured certainly this would be one of the races they'd keep on the grass. But it wasn't. And my top choice, the BC Champion Stormy Liberal who would have had plenty of pace to run at here, scratched out. That left World of Trouble, the BC 2nd place horse in the race as the main speed of the speed. He was already some handicapper's BEST of the day, and he'd run away on a sloppy Tampa main track as a prep for this. I made him my BEST BET of the day. As they hit the far turn it was shades of last Saturday when XY Jet had been a prohibitive favorite in the Sunshine Millions Sprint and was dueled into submission as the 1/5 favorite. But World of Trouble easily put away his challenger despite the swift pace and was a daylight winner, geared down through the final 16th of a mile. I had my first winner of the day!
I had picks from Laurel, Aqueduct, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita to complement my Gulfstream picks and the next race up for me was the Laurel opener. As Keith looked over the Daily Racing Form he remarked that the first two races at Laurel looked to have overwhelming favorites. I asked who did he think they were. He said the #1 in the first and the #2 in the second. I looked at my sheet and I found that odd because I had the #1 in the first, listed as the 6/5 favorite, and I had the 4/5 favorite in the second but I had him listed as #1. I asked who was the "2" in the second race and he showed me in the form. Uh oh - it was MY horse, I had the wrong number. Keith decided to play the double and I wasn't that confident so I stuck to my plan. I liked Rag Time to win the first and made him a double investment because of the comined fifty-six races run by the rest of the field, only one Beyer would beat his LAST FOUR figures. As they turned for home I wasn't very confident that the 1/5 favorite was going to get up in time, but thank goodness for the "longest stretch in the US" at Laurel and he was able to score, with me cashing for close to $15 on my second win from three picks.
Todd Pletcher's Ranger up was the 5/2 co-favorite in the fourth and was a finishing third at Gulfstream. Interesting to note - and note it we did - in the first three races here, the winner had been the front runner....in this race at 9/1 so it wasn't just that the best horse was also the speed of the race. Something to keep in mind! The second at Laurel saw my pick, Sierra Leona sent away as the 4/5 favorite. I was a little less confident in her as she shipped in from NY and was plunging to a $5K claiming race after they'd claimed her at Gulfstream earlier last year for $35K. Right to the front and easily wired the field.
Keith had the double, and it paid $5.80 but he had made it a $100 play! Good for him! I came right back with my fourth winner just twenty minutes later at Aqueduct when Shelly Ann wore down the long-time leader and scored as the 3/5 favorite with my double investment on her. When I went to make my next bet, "my girl" Karen - one of the twins that I frequently bet with asked how I was doing so far and I happily replied I'd won with four of five picks, to which she said, well, let's keep this going!
My pick scratched out of the Ladies' Turf Sprint in the GP 5th, so I was disciplined and passed. The winner, on the dirt, went wire-to-wire....seeing a pattern! I missed at Laurel and was planning to pass the 6th at Gulfstream, the South Beach Stakes on the turf for 3yo. It stayed on the turf but my choice, Bill Mott's Capla Temptress had scratched. Maybe the yielding turf....maybe the wide post? But then with about twenty minutes to post it occurred to me, one of the other fillies in the race was ALSO trained by Bill Mott! Number 9, Dolce Lili. Could it be that Mott liked this filly better? And I liked that John Velazquez was on board. I made her the bet. When the handicappers came on air to analyze the race all three of them talked about who SHOULD win the race....Dolce Lili! She sat mid pack to the stretch, was eased into the clear by Johnny V and blew by the leaders to score comfortably. Great decision Mr. Mark!
And she paid a generous $8.60 so I cashed for over $20 on my fifth winner on the afternoon! The fifth at Aqueduct was nearing the gate as the prices came up for Dolce Lili and I watched the race from my seat on my phone via xpressbet. This was a Maiden Special sprint going 5 1/2 furlongs for three-year-olds. What made this race so unique was the TEN of the ELEVEN entered were all first time starters. But the one was NOT a debut runner, Dr. Lloyd had run a very impressive third behind two runners who had daylight separation AND Dr. Lloyd was daylight clear of the field while running five-wide. AND the 75 speed figure would win most NY maiden races. So, I figured, while we have no clue what the other ten will do today, we "KNOW" that Dr. Lloyd has some ability. Toss in that trainer Linda Rice is a good 32% with 2nd time maidens and Junior Albarado wins at a 29% clip for Rice and it all added up to what I thought was a decisive winner. I tripled the bet. Dr. Lloyd sat just off the speed to the turn, moved up on the rail to challenge and they dueled to the top of the lane. Then he found a whole other gear as he widened with each and every stride without ever being asked to score by nearly a pole. ULTRA impressive!
I cashed for over $25 on my SIXTH win already! Missed at both Oaklawn and Laurel with short-priced favorites and then Breeders' Cup Champion Shamrock Rose was running in the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie for fillies and mares at the same 7f of that Grade 1 event. With all the other dirt winners having won on the lead I said to Keith we'd find out about the track bias here because 'Rose would NOT be on the lead. I thought she'd run mid-pack, and she did. She made up ground to be 4th, but the lightly raced filly Dream Pauline, my second choice slipped up the rail from a pressing position to get the win. The sixth at Aqueduct was a first level allowance event. Chad Brown was sending out Build To Suit who had crossed the line first in four of his first five starts. He'd been DQ'd from his initial win. Broke his maiden, ran sharply vs. winners first time out when second, then had beaten first entry level allowance rivals and then second level allowance runners. Two problems to consider.....first, that last win came in October OF 2017! And second, all those races were against state-breds and today he faced open company. Well, the Beyer figures said he fit and Chad Brown is great off the layoff so I made a $5 bet on #4. I was standing in the simulcast area as they began loading and I noted #4 was an unbelievable 12/1 price. WHAT????? Opened my xpressbet app and saw that Build To Suit was not #4, but #3 - and I had that on my sheet. I dashed to the window as the last three were loading, got the ticket canceled and then got the right ticket just before the gates opened! Build To Suit sat mid pack through the turn then four of them lined up across the track with the inner-most runner floating all of them about three paths off the rail. Top Aqueduct rider Manny Franco seized the opportunity and burst through on the rail, opened up and won going away.
While he wasn't 12/1, Build To Suit paid a hefty $10.80 and I was cashing for nearly $30.....so thankful I caught the wrong number on the ticket! At this point I was working on a seven-for-thirteen afternoon. But I hit a skid. 2nd at 2/1 when Santa Monica took the lead a furlong out in the Grade 3 La Prevoyante and was nailed in the final fifty yards; 6th at 2/1 at Santa Anita; eighth and last in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper here when Todd Pletcher's Copper Town was the 6/5 favorite, moving third on the outside at the top of the stretch and stopped like he was shot. Second as the 1/2 favorite in the Aqueduct feature; third as the 6/5 favorite in Santa Anita's Cal Cup Sprint; 6th at 2/1 at Oaklawn; and fifth at 3/1 in the Grade 3 William L. McKnight here. After watching the McKnight from my seat I went inside to watch the 9th from Laurel, a six furlong sprint - and that's significant to the story - for first level allowance runners. As I scanned through the entries here immediately Two Dozen Roses jumped off the page. Initially because when I take a first run through the pp's I am looking at trainers and recent races, and the trainer of record for 'Roses was Todd Pletcher! Wait, he next to NEVER runs a horse in Maryland! Let's take a closer look ...... Two Dozen Roses had been out only five times with only a maiden win. But then I saw it. Her last four races, all losses, were in ROUTE races. The one and ONLY sprint race had been in her debut - at Saratoga none the less - and she'd won! And today she's in a sprint? Too good to pass up. She was outrun to the far turn and was still next to last as heads turned for home. Truly at this moment I had the thought that I HAD said to Keith that if he played Laurel today to keep in mind that NO LEAD is safe at Laurel because it seems like it's the longest stretch in America. Inside the 1/8th pole, still fourth, but making up some ground. Not enough though. Then inside the 16th pole she seemed to find high gear and she accelerated between horses and burst to the front before hitting the wire! YES!
Not only had I snapped the skid with my eighth winner, but somehow 'Roses paid $7.60 and my double investment got me back close to $40! Here we go! On to the final races of the day! The sixth at Oaklawn was an allowance race going a mile and a sixteenth. Two years ago Todd Pletcher sent out then-3yo One Liner to back-to-back wins to kick off his career, both at Gulfstream. Then shipped the colt to Oaklawn for the Grade 3 Rebel. Won with a career best 102 Beyer and looked to be on the Derby trail. But injuries knocked him out and he wasn't seen for nearly a year. He'd not won since, and had moved into the barn of Steve Asmussen. But to me, here's what I saw....dropping out of back-to-back graded stakes, returning to a track and distance he'd won at AND where he'd earned a lifetime Beyer figure. Doubled the bet and he went off at 6/5. Sat fourth to the turn, then made "the move" three wide cruising to the leaders as they turned for home. Already I was thinking of how I'd describe this winner on camera. Then he stopped. Literally. The entire field blew by him and he finished dead last, almost eased. Sigh......
Next up was the Grade 1 $7 Million Pegasus Turf. The original plan two years ago was to implement this race in the second year of the Pegasus World Cup. But they didn't last year and I'd read several places that the reason was because the Europeans - who they hoped to lure here - finished their seasons in November and didn't start again until March, or later. So (a) no one was going to stay in training for almost three months for a single race; and (b) no one was going to start a month or two early for this race. It just didn't fit the calendar. Secondly, most of the "big name" turf runners began gearing up late in the GP meet (or Santa Anita, maybe the Fair Grounds) with the major races coming through the summer and into the fall. So you not only wouldn't get the Euros in January, you weren't going to get the best of the Americans either. About a month ago when they probables were discussed in the racing news publications I thought it looked like a pretty average group that probably were allowance level, MAYBE Gr 3 level and here they'd be running for $7 Million. But kudos to the Racing Secretary's Office because the field was a good one - not the best Gr 1 you'll ever seen on turf, but strong enough. The headliner was Bill Mott's Yoshida who had won the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day over yielding ground like this. Then last summer he won the Grade 1 Woodward on DIRT at Saratoga. Takes a very talented horse to be that good to win on both surfaces at that level. But I didn't like him. I preferred Chad Brown's Bricks and Mortar. He'd come off a LONG layoff to win impressively a month ago and I thought he had reason to improve. Also liked that he was 2-for-2 at Gulfstream and 5-for-7 overall. Just the right spot and he was 5/1 in the program. Well apparently the crowd saw what I did because he vied for favoritism until close to post time, then Yoshida took a lot of money. Jockey Irad Ortiz had him close up early but when the pace was too fast he eased back to near the rear. On the far turn he moved up, moving before Yoshida, and got clear into the lane. Yoshida was gathering momentum but was a few lengths back and wide. Then he hit a wall while Bricks and Mortar found another gear and blew by everyone to win going away!
I had the winner of the co-feature, and as Keith and I said afterwards....it was pretty cool that we had just seen THE richest race ever run on turf in North America! And of course I had the winner on top of that :) We headed downstairs because for the first time today it was not just drizzling or misting, it had started to RAIN. Keith looked over the Form to make his pick and I went out to the paddock. In spite of the weather the paddock was packed - just as it should be for a $9 Million race! So cool to be here I thought again!
When I re-joined Keith we discussed the field. First, compared to the first two years, this field had quality from top to bottom. BUT, with that said, unless something extraordinary were to happen we both felt you could easily toss eight of the twelve out as "likely" win candidates, and the other two were much more likely to be the horse to split the two favorites. And those favorites figured to produce the winner - BOTH Breeders' Cup champions. Accelerate had won six of seven in 2018 including the Breeders' Cup Classic, and it was worth noting that the first two editions of this race had been won by the Breeders' Cup Classic winner! His main rival would be City of Light who had been dazzling in winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Three things led me to my pick in the race. First, I remembered handicapping the BC Classic and one thing that impressed me about Accelerate was that his "right" distance seemed to be the mile and a quarter of the Classic because he didn't seem to have natural speed, just an ability to grind away at a top cruising level. Second, the lone loss in 2018 for Accelerate had come at Oaklawn AT THIS 9 furlong distance....aha, see? And who beat him that day? None other than.....wait for it......City of Light! Uh Oh! But to be fair Accelerate had lost narrowly and then come back to beat City of Light soundly next time out - but at a mile and a quarter. So they were had split two races. The crowning angle for me was that while Accelerate had posted a spectacular :58 and change bullet work for this race, it had been done in So Cal before shipping here. Conversely, City of Light had posted a BEST-OF-105 bullet work at Santa Anita and then shipped in early; and had worked here, posting of a dazzling BEST-of-104 bullet over the Gulfstream track. I had no doubt that Accelerate would run well, but it seemed to me that City of Light was sitting on a monster race, comparable to his Breeders' Cup victory which was arguably the most visually impressive of the Championship Saturday races.
Keith and I had watched the Pegasus Turf from the landing half way up the stairs to our seats and that was the plan, but with the rain falling we sat in our seats and as you can see our attire reflected the weather, but it couldn't dampen our excitement for the big event soon to unfold right in front of us. When I made my final decision and had written my analysis I gave the edge to City of Light, and enough of an edge to double the bet. But then on Friday I noticed on Xpressbet that they were offering the same promotion that they had last year.....
I had been able to double my bet, with "no risk" last year on Gun Runner as I knew if he didn't win he would almost certainly hit the board and I felt the same way today about City of Light. AND I felt even better about "upping the ante" because of the way speed had been playing today. The way I saw the race was "need to lead" Patternrecognition would gun to the lead from post 12. Good for him - he'd never been two turns, much less this distance. City of Light would break sharply from post three and quickly be in front of everyone else; if jockey Javier Castellano was smart - the only question for me - he'd let Patternrecognition cross him, then ease to his outside to be in the clear and track him while "leading" the rest of the field including Accelerate who I thought would be four or five off the leaders. The gates opened and City of Light was quickly two lengths clear of the field, except for Patternrecognition who was sprinting like it was a five-furlong turf race to get to the front. Easily crossed City of Light and the two were daylight clear of the next flight, including Accelerate. On the far turn City of Light readily went by the "cheap speedster" who folded up without resistance. But track announcer Pete Aiello called out the pace time in a very strong :46.4 for the opening half mile I wondered if City of Light had gone too fast. As they made the bend into the stretch Accelerate was now on City of Light's hip and "the stage was set" as Pete called it. But then in an instant Castellano let out a notch and City of Light was suddenly four in front and pulling away with each and every stride.
I was cheering as I was filming, knowing that I'd nailed the Pegasus World Cup winner for the third consecutive year! And just as Keith and I had predicted it was a longshot, 30/1 Seeking The Soul who edged by Accelerate in deep stretch to split the favorites. In an interesting side note, Seeking the Soul had last been seen in the Breeders' Cup when he ran second to......City of Light in the BC Dirt Mile! The exacta paid over $80 if you were clever enough to put that together. For me, strictly a win better, my "prime time" play was worth almost $60 and capped a strong 4-win day locally (all in stakes action) and would key an 11-win day with a solid profit.
I had four late races to watch once we returned home as we walked to the car in the cold rain. I finished a disappointing fifth as the 4/5 favorite in the Oaklawn feature, my second choice wired the field and paid $9....sigh; I was the even money favorite in the 7th at Santa Anita and clear at the 1/8th pole only to be caught on the wire; and finished a fast-closing 2nd at 5/2 in the Unusual Heat Stakes at Santa Anita. Wait.....I said four races :) In the ninth at Santa Anita, down the unique hillside turf course S Y Sky wired the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint at 2/1 odds for my 11th and final win of the day! HORRAY!
It was a great, great day of racing and I so enjoyed having my buddy along with me for the experience! One final note - as I mentioned at the top how BIG an event today was, I cannot remember the last time, even on Florida Derby Day, when the front page of the local sports section featured the races.....and a giant photo! And not one but two articles about the day - wow.
I cashed for over $25 on my SIXTH win already! Missed at both Oaklawn and Laurel with short-priced favorites and then Breeders' Cup Champion Shamrock Rose was running in the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie for fillies and mares at the same 7f of that Grade 1 event. With all the other dirt winners having won on the lead I said to Keith we'd find out about the track bias here because 'Rose would NOT be on the lead. I thought she'd run mid-pack, and she did. She made up ground to be 4th, but the lightly raced filly Dream Pauline, my second choice slipped up the rail from a pressing position to get the win. The sixth at Aqueduct was a first level allowance event. Chad Brown was sending out Build To Suit who had crossed the line first in four of his first five starts. He'd been DQ'd from his initial win. Broke his maiden, ran sharply vs. winners first time out when second, then had beaten first entry level allowance rivals and then second level allowance runners. Two problems to consider.....first, that last win came in October OF 2017! And second, all those races were against state-breds and today he faced open company. Well, the Beyer figures said he fit and Chad Brown is great off the layoff so I made a $5 bet on #4. I was standing in the simulcast area as they began loading and I noted #4 was an unbelievable 12/1 price. WHAT????? Opened my xpressbet app and saw that Build To Suit was not #4, but #3 - and I had that on my sheet. I dashed to the window as the last three were loading, got the ticket canceled and then got the right ticket just before the gates opened! Build To Suit sat mid pack through the turn then four of them lined up across the track with the inner-most runner floating all of them about three paths off the rail. Top Aqueduct rider Manny Franco seized the opportunity and burst through on the rail, opened up and won going away.
While he wasn't 12/1, Build To Suit paid a hefty $10.80 and I was cashing for nearly $30.....so thankful I caught the wrong number on the ticket! At this point I was working on a seven-for-thirteen afternoon. But I hit a skid. 2nd at 2/1 when Santa Monica took the lead a furlong out in the Grade 3 La Prevoyante and was nailed in the final fifty yards; 6th at 2/1 at Santa Anita; eighth and last in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper here when Todd Pletcher's Copper Town was the 6/5 favorite, moving third on the outside at the top of the stretch and stopped like he was shot. Second as the 1/2 favorite in the Aqueduct feature; third as the 6/5 favorite in Santa Anita's Cal Cup Sprint; 6th at 2/1 at Oaklawn; and fifth at 3/1 in the Grade 3 William L. McKnight here. After watching the McKnight from my seat I went inside to watch the 9th from Laurel, a six furlong sprint - and that's significant to the story - for first level allowance runners. As I scanned through the entries here immediately Two Dozen Roses jumped off the page. Initially because when I take a first run through the pp's I am looking at trainers and recent races, and the trainer of record for 'Roses was Todd Pletcher! Wait, he next to NEVER runs a horse in Maryland! Let's take a closer look ...... Two Dozen Roses had been out only five times with only a maiden win. But then I saw it. Her last four races, all losses, were in ROUTE races. The one and ONLY sprint race had been in her debut - at Saratoga none the less - and she'd won! And today she's in a sprint? Too good to pass up. She was outrun to the far turn and was still next to last as heads turned for home. Truly at this moment I had the thought that I HAD said to Keith that if he played Laurel today to keep in mind that NO LEAD is safe at Laurel because it seems like it's the longest stretch in America. Inside the 1/8th pole, still fourth, but making up some ground. Not enough though. Then inside the 16th pole she seemed to find high gear and she accelerated between horses and burst to the front before hitting the wire! YES!
Not only had I snapped the skid with my eighth winner, but somehow 'Roses paid $7.60 and my double investment got me back close to $40! Here we go! On to the final races of the day! The sixth at Oaklawn was an allowance race going a mile and a sixteenth. Two years ago Todd Pletcher sent out then-3yo One Liner to back-to-back wins to kick off his career, both at Gulfstream. Then shipped the colt to Oaklawn for the Grade 3 Rebel. Won with a career best 102 Beyer and looked to be on the Derby trail. But injuries knocked him out and he wasn't seen for nearly a year. He'd not won since, and had moved into the barn of Steve Asmussen. But to me, here's what I saw....dropping out of back-to-back graded stakes, returning to a track and distance he'd won at AND where he'd earned a lifetime Beyer figure. Doubled the bet and he went off at 6/5. Sat fourth to the turn, then made "the move" three wide cruising to the leaders as they turned for home. Already I was thinking of how I'd describe this winner on camera. Then he stopped. Literally. The entire field blew by him and he finished dead last, almost eased. Sigh......
Next up was the Grade 1 $7 Million Pegasus Turf. The original plan two years ago was to implement this race in the second year of the Pegasus World Cup. But they didn't last year and I'd read several places that the reason was because the Europeans - who they hoped to lure here - finished their seasons in November and didn't start again until March, or later. So (a) no one was going to stay in training for almost three months for a single race; and (b) no one was going to start a month or two early for this race. It just didn't fit the calendar. Secondly, most of the "big name" turf runners began gearing up late in the GP meet (or Santa Anita, maybe the Fair Grounds) with the major races coming through the summer and into the fall. So you not only wouldn't get the Euros in January, you weren't going to get the best of the Americans either. About a month ago when they probables were discussed in the racing news publications I thought it looked like a pretty average group that probably were allowance level, MAYBE Gr 3 level and here they'd be running for $7 Million. But kudos to the Racing Secretary's Office because the field was a good one - not the best Gr 1 you'll ever seen on turf, but strong enough. The headliner was Bill Mott's Yoshida who had won the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day over yielding ground like this. Then last summer he won the Grade 1 Woodward on DIRT at Saratoga. Takes a very talented horse to be that good to win on both surfaces at that level. But I didn't like him. I preferred Chad Brown's Bricks and Mortar. He'd come off a LONG layoff to win impressively a month ago and I thought he had reason to improve. Also liked that he was 2-for-2 at Gulfstream and 5-for-7 overall. Just the right spot and he was 5/1 in the program. Well apparently the crowd saw what I did because he vied for favoritism until close to post time, then Yoshida took a lot of money. Jockey Irad Ortiz had him close up early but when the pace was too fast he eased back to near the rear. On the far turn he moved up, moving before Yoshida, and got clear into the lane. Yoshida was gathering momentum but was a few lengths back and wide. Then he hit a wall while Bricks and Mortar found another gear and blew by everyone to win going away!
I had the winner of the co-feature, and as Keith and I said afterwards....it was pretty cool that we had just seen THE richest race ever run on turf in North America! And of course I had the winner on top of that :) We headed downstairs because for the first time today it was not just drizzling or misting, it had started to RAIN. Keith looked over the Form to make his pick and I went out to the paddock. In spite of the weather the paddock was packed - just as it should be for a $9 Million race! So cool to be here I thought again!
When I re-joined Keith we discussed the field. First, compared to the first two years, this field had quality from top to bottom. BUT, with that said, unless something extraordinary were to happen we both felt you could easily toss eight of the twelve out as "likely" win candidates, and the other two were much more likely to be the horse to split the two favorites. And those favorites figured to produce the winner - BOTH Breeders' Cup champions. Accelerate had won six of seven in 2018 including the Breeders' Cup Classic, and it was worth noting that the first two editions of this race had been won by the Breeders' Cup Classic winner! His main rival would be City of Light who had been dazzling in winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Three things led me to my pick in the race. First, I remembered handicapping the BC Classic and one thing that impressed me about Accelerate was that his "right" distance seemed to be the mile and a quarter of the Classic because he didn't seem to have natural speed, just an ability to grind away at a top cruising level. Second, the lone loss in 2018 for Accelerate had come at Oaklawn AT THIS 9 furlong distance....aha, see? And who beat him that day? None other than.....wait for it......City of Light! Uh Oh! But to be fair Accelerate had lost narrowly and then come back to beat City of Light soundly next time out - but at a mile and a quarter. So they were had split two races. The crowning angle for me was that while Accelerate had posted a spectacular :58 and change bullet work for this race, it had been done in So Cal before shipping here. Conversely, City of Light had posted a BEST-OF-105 bullet work at Santa Anita and then shipped in early; and had worked here, posting of a dazzling BEST-of-104 bullet over the Gulfstream track. I had no doubt that Accelerate would run well, but it seemed to me that City of Light was sitting on a monster race, comparable to his Breeders' Cup victory which was arguably the most visually impressive of the Championship Saturday races.
Keith and I had watched the Pegasus Turf from the landing half way up the stairs to our seats and that was the plan, but with the rain falling we sat in our seats and as you can see our attire reflected the weather, but it couldn't dampen our excitement for the big event soon to unfold right in front of us. When I made my final decision and had written my analysis I gave the edge to City of Light, and enough of an edge to double the bet. But then on Friday I noticed on Xpressbet that they were offering the same promotion that they had last year.....
I had been able to double my bet, with "no risk" last year on Gun Runner as I knew if he didn't win he would almost certainly hit the board and I felt the same way today about City of Light. AND I felt even better about "upping the ante" because of the way speed had been playing today. The way I saw the race was "need to lead" Patternrecognition would gun to the lead from post 12. Good for him - he'd never been two turns, much less this distance. City of Light would break sharply from post three and quickly be in front of everyone else; if jockey Javier Castellano was smart - the only question for me - he'd let Patternrecognition cross him, then ease to his outside to be in the clear and track him while "leading" the rest of the field including Accelerate who I thought would be four or five off the leaders. The gates opened and City of Light was quickly two lengths clear of the field, except for Patternrecognition who was sprinting like it was a five-furlong turf race to get to the front. Easily crossed City of Light and the two were daylight clear of the next flight, including Accelerate. On the far turn City of Light readily went by the "cheap speedster" who folded up without resistance. But track announcer Pete Aiello called out the pace time in a very strong :46.4 for the opening half mile I wondered if City of Light had gone too fast. As they made the bend into the stretch Accelerate was now on City of Light's hip and "the stage was set" as Pete called it. But then in an instant Castellano let out a notch and City of Light was suddenly four in front and pulling away with each and every stride.
I was cheering as I was filming, knowing that I'd nailed the Pegasus World Cup winner for the third consecutive year! And just as Keith and I had predicted it was a longshot, 30/1 Seeking The Soul who edged by Accelerate in deep stretch to split the favorites. In an interesting side note, Seeking the Soul had last been seen in the Breeders' Cup when he ran second to......City of Light in the BC Dirt Mile! The exacta paid over $80 if you were clever enough to put that together. For me, strictly a win better, my "prime time" play was worth almost $60 and capped a strong 4-win day locally (all in stakes action) and would key an 11-win day with a solid profit.
I had four late races to watch once we returned home as we walked to the car in the cold rain. I finished a disappointing fifth as the 4/5 favorite in the Oaklawn feature, my second choice wired the field and paid $9....sigh; I was the even money favorite in the 7th at Santa Anita and clear at the 1/8th pole only to be caught on the wire; and finished a fast-closing 2nd at 5/2 in the Unusual Heat Stakes at Santa Anita. Wait.....I said four races :) In the ninth at Santa Anita, down the unique hillside turf course S Y Sky wired the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint at 2/1 odds for my 11th and final win of the day! HORRAY!
It was a great, great day of racing and I so enjoyed having my buddy along with me for the experience! One final note - as I mentioned at the top how BIG an event today was, I cannot remember the last time, even on Florida Derby Day, when the front page of the local sports section featured the races.....and a giant photo! And not one but two articles about the day - wow.
Pegasus Day 2019 Highlights
Pegasus Day Fashion Photos
Pegasus Day Fashion Photos
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