February 16-18
If you're following along with my racing adventures you know I was booked to meet my buddy Jim Anderson in Arkansas for an Oaklawn racing weekend, including three big graded stakes on Monday, President's Day. But then last week we lost Kim's father, so I planned to completely skip the week from racing. Headed to Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and didn't return until Monday night. But for a variety of reasons I DID end up having a little bit of racing action over the weekend which was a nice diversion.
Friday February 16
I saw online that "the mighty mare" Winx was making her 2019 debut in the 7 furlong Group 2 Apollo Stakes late tonight, early Saturday morning. I was just a touch concerned because this is NOT her best distance, and while she's won her year-beginning start at the distance the past three years, last year it was oh-so-close; and then she's a year older. Also, the connections do not have a strategy for the year, just a race-by-race with an ultimate goal of a fifth straight Cox Plate eventually. But her works led the comments to say she was better than ever and the one analysis I read of the race said she would have no problem. So I went in for a big bet. She was the prohibitive favorite on xpressbet and sat near the back as usual. Made her patented move on the turn while four or five wide and blew by under a hand ride without any urging. She is one exceptional race horse.
2019 Apollo Stakes
Monday February 18
I had thought that the Winx race would be the lone foray into racing for the extended weekend, especially with me returning on the Monday holiday. But on Saturday our plan was to be at Kim's twin sister's Karrie's house all day with a lot of the family there and I knew that there would be a good chance that I'd have a lot of time to fill, so I downloaded the past performances for both Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn for Monday. I figured I would make the bets Monday morning before heading to the airport and that when I arrived back home in So Fla this would give me something to look forward to in the evening as I began two weeks of being alone while Kim remains in Pennsylvania to help her Mom sort things out and get into a routine.
At Gulfstream they had eleven starter stakes and a MSW event in the finale. At Oaklawn they had their three featured graded events complimented by a pretty solid undercard. The first bet of the day came in Gulfstream's second, the Lady Bird at seven furlongs. The race looked to me to finish the same way as the Opening Day Glass Slipper had with the 1-2-3 finishers coming back here. I wanted to take one of the runner-up rivals but Mischief Maas looked too good on paper. I was right in that they did run 1-2-3 again, but my pick ran third. Should have played a $1 trifecta at a cost of $6 and I would have collected $17 - but you KNOW had I done that they would have run 1-2-4, or 1-3-4 :) In the 4th, the Trust Buster, my pick Whyruawesome was 3/5 but flattened out in the stretch to finish third. In the fifth I liked a price play in the Mary Todd on the turf with Shezaprado. She was 8/1 and I still think she'd have won except.....they let the speed of the race walk on the lead through a :50 half mile split, but still I thought I was ready to roll when I had all kinds of traffic trouble. Still, a solid third at the big number. The first play from Oaklawn was next on the sheet. The second from Hot Springs was a second level allowance and I liked New York Central in spite of the "obstacles." First, the roan-gray son of champion Tapit was a $750K sales grad and had last been seen running a best-of-the-rest second in a Grade 3 event. BUT that was on Kentucky Derby Day, so he was coming off of a nine month layoff. And today he'd face older for the first time. I noted in my analysis that he'd probably be a shorter price than his true chances to win, and he was as the 3/2 favorite. Stalked the pace to the three-eighths pole then ran away as easily best.
Next up was the Mrs. President's at Gulfstream and I was a non-threatening eighth at 7/1 odds. The third at Oaklawn was a maiden special for three-year-olds. And as I wrote in my analysis, if you know anything about trainer Todd Pletcher he is VERY organized and a meticulous planner. So that he had runners entered today in the stakes was no surprise. And it should come as no surprise that he sent Intrepid Heart was running in this MSW event instead of running at Gulfstream Park, his home base where Pletcher 3yo runners typically dominate. I also found it very interesting that today's event at Oaklawn was a one-mile race and those events at Gulfstream are a ONE-TURN event, where as here it's two-turns. Three-year-olds at this time of year always would like to think they might be Derby candidates and if Pletcher picked this spot for the $750K sales grad, who's been working since September for his initial try you KNOW he had all this in mind. The crowd was onto his talent and sent him away as the 4/5 favorite. Immediately out of the gate he was hooked on the front end and he dueled through :23.0 and :47.1 fractions to the far turn. The field began to close in but Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez let the son of champion Tapit out a notch and WOW did he accelerate. With each stride he widened the margin and finished under mild urging the winner by more than seven lengths. Oh how I wish he was going to run in Florida - he might be the Florida Derby pick.
Ironically I read later that he won this debut race on the exact same day to the year that Justify debuted....and he went on to win the Triple Crown last year! In the fifth at Oaklawn my pick went right to the front trying two turns and went way too fast, stopping in the lane like he was tied to the rail. In the tenth at Gulfstream Rich Daddy continued to be close without winning, third at 2/1 for me. In the 7th at Oaklawn it was the first of the triple-headed stakes line-up, the Grade 3 Bayakoa. I liked She's A Julie - first because I'd spent the better part of the weekend with my daughter Julie :) If she ran back to her sharp second in the Grade 1 Alabama, finishing in front of multiple Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou, she would be a clear winner. If she ran back to her latest when she was fourth at 1/5 odds in the Zia Park Oaks, she would be very vulnerable. It was the former 'Julie that showed up today. She and second choice Remedy dueled from the outset to the top of the stretch. But instead of having the pace duel sink them both, She's A Julie opened up and was clear to the wire for my THIRD win in Arkansas!
Wishing I'd wagered more, but I had some concerns, so I'll take the winning ticket as is. Next up was the 11th from Gulfstream and I'm still looking for my first winner on their card. It was the last of the starter stakes, the Old Man Eloquent going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I preferred Your Only Man who was last seen in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf when second. He had Irad Ortiz up here and if he ran back to that race, he was your winner. I was nearly certain he'd be a short price on the class drop but instead he went off as a nice 2/1 runner. It was oh-so-close on the wire, and since I was watching the replays I thought he'd won, and when I clicked to view the results he did win at a sharp $6.20 price. I didn't know until later that he actually had dead-heated for the win and I'd have received a much smaller payout but the dead-heat winner was DQ'd to second for interference to me, so I got to have the entire payoff! WHOOOO HOOOO!
That makes two in a row and three of the last five plays in the winner's circle! Next was the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap from Oaklawn and I thought Todd Pletcher's Coal Front would have been an odds-on pick had he not drawn the parking lot post of slot 14. But, I believe that in spite of what the statistics say about post positions, the wide draw is much more of a problem for horses who are NOT quality runners. In a graded stakes, you wouldn't pick to be this wide, but I don't think it's that much of an obstacle so I went with him anyway. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez broke right on cue and quickly was just off the hip and tracking the 15/1 front runner. He made his move on the far turn, was clear into the stretch and then had to hold off a late bid from Copper Bullet, my second choice. But he was the winner and I had my third in a row and fifth on the day!
At this point, after winning only one of my first five and then four of the last six I'd pulled ahead with a small profit. But the last two selections for the day both finished off-the-board and so I ended with a 5-for-13 day (that's a strong 38% for those of you without calculators!) with a small dollar loss. But I'll take it considering.
The Erie Trip
Several people remarked prior to the services and afterwards that certainly the reason we were all in Pennsylvania together was not what we would have wanted, but the fact that we were all together was a very good thing. So infrequently do I get to have all three of my kids in one spot and it meant so very much to me that my sister Laurie and niece Khloe came up for the services. Khloe was asked to sing by Kim's mom Peggy and wow did she deliver. Everyone raved about her vocal. She is so very talented! A few pictures from the weekend......
Ironically I read later that he won this debut race on the exact same day to the year that Justify debuted....and he went on to win the Triple Crown last year! In the fifth at Oaklawn my pick went right to the front trying two turns and went way too fast, stopping in the lane like he was tied to the rail. In the tenth at Gulfstream Rich Daddy continued to be close without winning, third at 2/1 for me. In the 7th at Oaklawn it was the first of the triple-headed stakes line-up, the Grade 3 Bayakoa. I liked She's A Julie - first because I'd spent the better part of the weekend with my daughter Julie :) If she ran back to her sharp second in the Grade 1 Alabama, finishing in front of multiple Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou, she would be a clear winner. If she ran back to her latest when she was fourth at 1/5 odds in the Zia Park Oaks, she would be very vulnerable. It was the former 'Julie that showed up today. She and second choice Remedy dueled from the outset to the top of the stretch. But instead of having the pace duel sink them both, She's A Julie opened up and was clear to the wire for my THIRD win in Arkansas!
Wishing I'd wagered more, but I had some concerns, so I'll take the winning ticket as is. Next up was the 11th from Gulfstream and I'm still looking for my first winner on their card. It was the last of the starter stakes, the Old Man Eloquent going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I preferred Your Only Man who was last seen in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf when second. He had Irad Ortiz up here and if he ran back to that race, he was your winner. I was nearly certain he'd be a short price on the class drop but instead he went off as a nice 2/1 runner. It was oh-so-close on the wire, and since I was watching the replays I thought he'd won, and when I clicked to view the results he did win at a sharp $6.20 price. I didn't know until later that he actually had dead-heated for the win and I'd have received a much smaller payout but the dead-heat winner was DQ'd to second for interference to me, so I got to have the entire payoff! WHOOOO HOOOO!
That makes two in a row and three of the last five plays in the winner's circle! Next was the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap from Oaklawn and I thought Todd Pletcher's Coal Front would have been an odds-on pick had he not drawn the parking lot post of slot 14. But, I believe that in spite of what the statistics say about post positions, the wide draw is much more of a problem for horses who are NOT quality runners. In a graded stakes, you wouldn't pick to be this wide, but I don't think it's that much of an obstacle so I went with him anyway. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez broke right on cue and quickly was just off the hip and tracking the 15/1 front runner. He made his move on the far turn, was clear into the stretch and then had to hold off a late bid from Copper Bullet, my second choice. But he was the winner and I had my third in a row and fifth on the day!
At this point, after winning only one of my first five and then four of the last six I'd pulled ahead with a small profit. But the last two selections for the day both finished off-the-board and so I ended with a 5-for-13 day (that's a strong 38% for those of you without calculators!) with a small dollar loss. But I'll take it considering.
President's Day Highlights
The Erie Trip
Several people remarked prior to the services and afterwards that certainly the reason we were all in Pennsylvania together was not what we would have wanted, but the fact that we were all together was a very good thing. So infrequently do I get to have all three of my kids in one spot and it meant so very much to me that my sister Laurie and niece Khloe came up for the services. Khloe was asked to sing by Kim's mom Peggy and wow did she deliver. Everyone raved about her vocal. She is so very talented! A few pictures from the weekend......
The whole family
The best balcony view in the world from "the Barn"
It was V-E-R-Y cold
My "kids"
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