Saturday February 23
Of all the Saturdays at Gulfstream during the Championship Meet there are few that are not of the "Super Saturday" variety, but this happened to be one of them. Don't get me wrong, it's always great to be on track during this big time of the year and the racing is always of high quality. But this was not a star-studded attraction day - nor was it anywhere else nationally. Still, it's a Saturday, it's a RACING Saturday and that meant I'd be at Gulfstream for a full day of thoroughbred action. I left the house about 11 and arrived a little before noon, just minutes before first post, but I didn't have anything until the second. I'd gone back and forth about my outfit - go figure, like (a) anyone will notice, much less care and (b) does it really matter? Well, for me I like to wear my Gulfstream shirts, but like to add a touch of class to my look on Saturday. I'd picked an outfit, no GP logo, but changed my mind. Then changed my mind again and finally with ten minutes until I was leaving I got up and switched my outfit to the original one before leaving. WOW.
I cashed my one winning ticket I'd had left from Thursday's trip out here with my buddy John Baird and made the first three bets of the day. In the second at Gulfstream I thought Oh My Warrior going second off the shelf for Georgina Baxter with Irad Ortiz up was the most likely winner in a pretty wide open cheap claimer. Sat in the back half of the field, off the TV screen to the far turn when he began to rally, weaving through the field as the holes opened. One last surge between horses and he was in front with fifty yards to go! SCORE!
Collected nearly fifteen bucks on the first winner on the afternoon. In the fourth my pick on the turf was Ride To The Sunset and he showed little, running fifth at a big 8/1 price. The second at Laurel was an interesting story.....when I looked at the race it was oh-so-obvious that the short-priced favorite and winner of this one-turn mile on the dirt would almost certainly be MG Broker. He'd only been out five times, but ALL FIVE Beyer speed figures would top 36 of the 37 numbers posted by his rivals. And that one figure that was competitive, not better, had been earned months ago going two turns on the turf by a runner who'd not come close to running that fast since AND was 30/1 in the program today. So how surprised was I when I opened the page on my xpressbet app to see that MG Broker was NOT the favorite! And not only was he not the betting favorite he was NOT the favorite in the mult-race wagers or in the daily double payouts. What is going on? Am I the one who's way off in his thinking? I reread my analysis and I had not bothered to even mention another runner. To be fair MG Broker was bet down to 7/5, but the favorite was even money. Quickly he was near the front and by the time they hit the turn he was daylight clear. I could tell - having seen a few races in my lifetime - that the rider was cruising along while the jockeys in the rest of the field were already asking alot of their mounts to try and catch the smooth-running front runner. As heads turned for home he let out a notch and drew off to win by double digits! How easy was that? Guess that the only one who really knew what was going on here was indeed ME!
Right back in the fourth at Gulfstream where I liked the 7/5 program favorite Mystery Witness. At first glance you'd wonder "WHY is Mystery Witness entered in this $12.5K claiming sprint? He is lightly raced and JUST WON at this level. Why not move up a notch?" And that would be valid in nearly every circumstance BUT here, trainer Jorge Navarro is a master at the claiming game and he is able to uncannily spot his horses where they can win. So for me, if he thinks this is the right spot, I'm on board. Entering the stretch Mystery Witness had a short lead but my third choice Vinnie Van Go was right behind. They dueled to the furlong pole and Vinnie had a neck in front, but 'Mystery came right back and they were shoulder to shoulder to inside the final fifty yards when I finally got just a head in front. WINNER! Wait, "Ladies and gentlemen the rider of the unofficial second place horse has lodged a claim of foul against the unofficial winner for interference." You kidding me? They looked at it for several minutes and then, NO - it's official!
Next up was the third at Laurel, a maiden claiming event at Laurel going only 5 1/2 furlongs and the question was, "Which Spotmeifucan would show up?" Of his four starts three had earned Beyer figures of 62-60-69 and those would win by a pole. But the fourth start was a badly stopping 32 fig - that kind of number and he's no better than the others. And the second question was, with him being 3/5 in the program you KNOW we aren't going to get any kind of price. I eventually thought he simply was too good for these and doubled the bet. Right to the front, but he was hounded all the way through the turn. Put that one away but you could see the closers were coming. Had the duel through the first four furlongs softened him up. WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!!! PHOTO FINISH!
Whew......that was one of the scariest $3 profits I've ever earned! But I had four wins from my first five bets and you can't argue with those kind of numbers!
Minutes later I ran second at 4/5 at Aqueduct and then it was time for the second in New Orleans at the Fair Grounds. This was a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-old fillies and NONE of the runners with experience inspired a single iota of confidence. So, that left us with Front Office who was a first timer from the Joe Sharp barn, who wins with 18% of those. Jockey Adam Beschizza is a 24% win rider for the barn and she wouldn't have to have a lot of talent to win here. Right to the front....took some mild pressure into the turn then opened up and drove to a daylight win as the post time favorite. The fifth and sixth at Gulfstream were the outcomes that changed would could have been a BIG day into a just a good day at the races. In the fifth, I'll claim a "moral victory," as well as "I can't believe I lost" to the finish. This was a second level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth, which meant a first finish line end to the race - meaning any runner who's a closer will have an additional handicap to overcome. And that applied to my pick Hy Kodiak Warrior. But, I did NOT like the favorite, Brasstown. So much so that when I went to see who the Gulfstream analysts liked today I was not fazed a single bit by the fact that three of the four picked Brasstown and two of them made him their BEST BET. I could see why, he looked like the lone speed and with the short stretch, any hope of catching him seemed problematic. But I just didn't see him being such a dominant front runner, especially at a short price. The two most likely alternatives were Biblical and 'Warrior. Biblical made sense because he was from the Todd Pletcher barn and had Johnny Velazquez on board. BUT while he had shown ability last year when winning HERE at this distance in March, he wasn't seen again until December when he was distanced by Brasstown, so I didn't like him as much as my pick. Hy Kodiak Warrior was running for the first time for trainer Jorge Delgado, a 38% win angle and he's winning at a 41% clip overall. Add in jockey Irad Ortiz who's been white hot this week and the huge 12/1 morning line odds seemed way out of line. Brasstown coasted on the easiest of leads to the far turn, and then inspite of a a very, very slow pace he stopped like he was shot. Hy Kodiak Warrior gobbled him up and forged to the lead into the short stretch. Then here came the #5 horse and he just got by on the wire. That one was a 4/1 winner......yes, Biblical. Sigh, Todd Pletcher pays double digits without me. So, I was "right" about Brasstown, made a "good bet" on Hy Kodiak Warrior, but didn't cash. Right back in the sixth we were on the turf and I liked Bill Mott's Penalty. Went off at 9/2 and like Kodiak Warrior forged to the front in deep stretch, only to be caught in the final fifty yards by the favorite. Back-to-back seconds on price plays.....would have collected $130 and change. Sigh.....
Spliced between those two events was the fourth at Tampa - a five and a half furlong sprint for non-winners of two lifetime. Shanghai Shuffle had run very poorly for Todd Pletcher in his first three starts then moved to the Joan Scott barn and off a long layoff he'd earned four straight mid-to-low 40 Beyer figures. That won't win many stakes races but in here it would take a career effort to beat him. He moved willingly approaching the far turn from mid-pack, glided to the front while being confidently handled and sprinted home the easiest of winners. My sixth win of the day and I've yet to turn the page of my selection sheet!
It would be multiple races before I cashed again. Of the seven missed races I hit the board once, so I really wasn't ever on the edge of my seat. The one that irked me however was in Gulfstream's 7th. I liked Coniston from post twelve going two turns on the turf because jockey Irad Ortiz had been so hot this week. I thought he'd burst out of the gate and easily clear the field, then have a chance to wire this non-winners of two event. But AS THE HORSES WERE WALKING ONTO THE TURF the announcement came that there had been a rider switch.....on #12! Irad Ortiz who had piled up 98 wins here this winter would be replaced by Luca Panici, who had 8, yes EIGHT wins. A 6% rider replacing a 26% winning rider. And we are JUST finding out now as they approach the gate? I was nearly certain it wasn't because of an injury because there hadn't been any riders fall today. And I was further irritated when Irad Ortiz rode in the 9th race. What was that all about? Of course under Panici Croniston did not break sharply, was fourth and wide all the way around and finished fourth at 5/1 odds. Grrrrrrr. I had looked at the Santa Anita card because I KNEW I was playing the featured event this afternoon. And I had found a bet in their second race, a rich $75K Maiden Claiming sprint for three-year-olds. I could have understood if you went against the likely favorite, Platimum Nights who was racing for a maiden claiming tag for the third time today. BUT, to me he got a pass. The first time he'd raced for a tag it was a $100K tag, then the next time it was an $80K tag. So he was still dropping in class, and even better, BOTH times for a tag he'd run significantly better than when he'd faced MSW rivals. Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith got him to the front early on....faced pressure to the top of the stretch and then ran away at even money.
My only concern in the first of the three stakes at Gulfstream, the Melody of Colors on the turf for three-year-old fillies, sprinting five furlongs, was why did So Cal trainer John Sadler ship across the country to run for $75K with this 3x Euro winner? Conversely, you don't come all this way just to "get a race into her." But when the gates opened she was left at the gate. Belated run to finish fourth at 7/2, but GP analyst Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet went wire to wire at 3/1 - and she'd been my second choice. The eighth at Aqueduct was their feature, the Franklin Square Stakes going six furlongs for three-year-old fillies. This featured several who appeared to have talent and two that were side-by-side both unbeaten in two starts. I liked Stonesintheroad of those two. She simply looked best and more importantly fastest on paper. If the race played out as I saw it she'd outrun the competition and wire the field. Call me psychic.....right the the front and L-O-N-G gone at nearly 2/1 odds with my double investment tagged on so I'd cash for almost $30.
In the tenth at Gulfstream EVERYONE liked Where Paradise Lay who had been a sharp third while over four lengths clear of the rest of the field in his debut AND got a 75 Beyer for the effort. Every other runner was making their debut and the trainer stats with first time starters read: 9%, 5%, 10%, 8%, 17% (for a barn that's 1-for-22 at the meet), 0% and 0%. Meanwhile 'Paradise's trainer was winning at a 44% clip this winter. Sent off at an inflated 2/1 price he sat mid-pack to the top of the stretch, then collared the 5/2 leader. But instead of going by they dueled.....PHOTO FINISH. Lost. This first timer came from one of the 0-for barns with debut runners. Sigh...... Minutes later I was watching from the Fair Grounds when Free Cover dueled through the stretch and was in a photo - 2nd at a big 4/1 with a double investment; then at Gulfstream in the featured Grade 3 Hal's Hope I went with Todd Pletcher's Copper Town. Jockey Javier Castellano was last out of the gate, got to the front at the top of the stretch then was run down by John Velazquez on the OTHER Todd Pletcher at 7/1. In between races Pletcher commented that in the next, the Texas Glitter Stakes his late-running Stand Up had a good chance but he wanted Castellano to break sharper than last time. Broke dead last - belated finish when an nonthreatening fifth. In the finale Castellano was on Comic City who was the 5/2 favorite. Bobbled slightly out of the gate, sigh.....raced up on heels and had to steady; was caught between runners and had to check slightly.....wow. Made a bid and flattened out through the lane to finish fifth. I missed twice at Santa Anita with good looking - on paper - runners (4th at 9/2 and third at 3/5) before the BIG race, the Grade 2 Buena Vista at a mile on the turf. Jerry Hollendorfer's Vasilika had been claimed for $40K a year ago. After a photo finish second in her first for Hollendorfer she beat a listed stakes field; then a nw1x and a nw2x followed by another listed stakes win. She took a $100K AOC event, then stepped up and won the Grade 2 John Mabee. Next she won the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive, followed by the Grade 2 Goldikova. Finally the 8-race win streak was stopped when fourth in the Grade 1 Matriarch two back. She'd come off the shelf to beat rivals in the Grade 3 Megahertz over this course to run her local record to an amazing 9/8-1-0. She figured to be a short price, but she'd not had a real break in nearly a year. Still fresh enough to beat these? The lone speed went a wicked :45 and change into the far turn but was over half a dozen clear - would she stop? Here came Vasilika with momentum while five wide. Blew by to win going away and motored down. She is GOOD.
Ended with nine wins for 28 picks and a solid day of racing. Coupled with the multiple wins for the week I am VERY satisfied with the month of February and how it's going!
I cashed my one winning ticket I'd had left from Thursday's trip out here with my buddy John Baird and made the first three bets of the day. In the second at Gulfstream I thought Oh My Warrior going second off the shelf for Georgina Baxter with Irad Ortiz up was the most likely winner in a pretty wide open cheap claimer. Sat in the back half of the field, off the TV screen to the far turn when he began to rally, weaving through the field as the holes opened. One last surge between horses and he was in front with fifty yards to go! SCORE!
Collected nearly fifteen bucks on the first winner on the afternoon. In the fourth my pick on the turf was Ride To The Sunset and he showed little, running fifth at a big 8/1 price. The second at Laurel was an interesting story.....when I looked at the race it was oh-so-obvious that the short-priced favorite and winner of this one-turn mile on the dirt would almost certainly be MG Broker. He'd only been out five times, but ALL FIVE Beyer speed figures would top 36 of the 37 numbers posted by his rivals. And that one figure that was competitive, not better, had been earned months ago going two turns on the turf by a runner who'd not come close to running that fast since AND was 30/1 in the program today. So how surprised was I when I opened the page on my xpressbet app to see that MG Broker was NOT the favorite! And not only was he not the betting favorite he was NOT the favorite in the mult-race wagers or in the daily double payouts. What is going on? Am I the one who's way off in his thinking? I reread my analysis and I had not bothered to even mention another runner. To be fair MG Broker was bet down to 7/5, but the favorite was even money. Quickly he was near the front and by the time they hit the turn he was daylight clear. I could tell - having seen a few races in my lifetime - that the rider was cruising along while the jockeys in the rest of the field were already asking alot of their mounts to try and catch the smooth-running front runner. As heads turned for home he let out a notch and drew off to win by double digits! How easy was that? Guess that the only one who really knew what was going on here was indeed ME!
Right back in the fourth at Gulfstream where I liked the 7/5 program favorite Mystery Witness. At first glance you'd wonder "WHY is Mystery Witness entered in this $12.5K claiming sprint? He is lightly raced and JUST WON at this level. Why not move up a notch?" And that would be valid in nearly every circumstance BUT here, trainer Jorge Navarro is a master at the claiming game and he is able to uncannily spot his horses where they can win. So for me, if he thinks this is the right spot, I'm on board. Entering the stretch Mystery Witness had a short lead but my third choice Vinnie Van Go was right behind. They dueled to the furlong pole and Vinnie had a neck in front, but 'Mystery came right back and they were shoulder to shoulder to inside the final fifty yards when I finally got just a head in front. WINNER! Wait, "Ladies and gentlemen the rider of the unofficial second place horse has lodged a claim of foul against the unofficial winner for interference." You kidding me? They looked at it for several minutes and then, NO - it's official!
Next up was the third at Laurel, a maiden claiming event at Laurel going only 5 1/2 furlongs and the question was, "Which Spotmeifucan would show up?" Of his four starts three had earned Beyer figures of 62-60-69 and those would win by a pole. But the fourth start was a badly stopping 32 fig - that kind of number and he's no better than the others. And the second question was, with him being 3/5 in the program you KNOW we aren't going to get any kind of price. I eventually thought he simply was too good for these and doubled the bet. Right to the front, but he was hounded all the way through the turn. Put that one away but you could see the closers were coming. Had the duel through the first four furlongs softened him up. WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!!! PHOTO FINISH!
Minutes later I ran second at 4/5 at Aqueduct and then it was time for the second in New Orleans at the Fair Grounds. This was a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-old fillies and NONE of the runners with experience inspired a single iota of confidence. So, that left us with Front Office who was a first timer from the Joe Sharp barn, who wins with 18% of those. Jockey Adam Beschizza is a 24% win rider for the barn and she wouldn't have to have a lot of talent to win here. Right to the front....took some mild pressure into the turn then opened up and drove to a daylight win as the post time favorite. The fifth and sixth at Gulfstream were the outcomes that changed would could have been a BIG day into a just a good day at the races. In the fifth, I'll claim a "moral victory," as well as "I can't believe I lost" to the finish. This was a second level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth, which meant a first finish line end to the race - meaning any runner who's a closer will have an additional handicap to overcome. And that applied to my pick Hy Kodiak Warrior. But, I did NOT like the favorite, Brasstown. So much so that when I went to see who the Gulfstream analysts liked today I was not fazed a single bit by the fact that three of the four picked Brasstown and two of them made him their BEST BET. I could see why, he looked like the lone speed and with the short stretch, any hope of catching him seemed problematic. But I just didn't see him being such a dominant front runner, especially at a short price. The two most likely alternatives were Biblical and 'Warrior. Biblical made sense because he was from the Todd Pletcher barn and had Johnny Velazquez on board. BUT while he had shown ability last year when winning HERE at this distance in March, he wasn't seen again until December when he was distanced by Brasstown, so I didn't like him as much as my pick. Hy Kodiak Warrior was running for the first time for trainer Jorge Delgado, a 38% win angle and he's winning at a 41% clip overall. Add in jockey Irad Ortiz who's been white hot this week and the huge 12/1 morning line odds seemed way out of line. Brasstown coasted on the easiest of leads to the far turn, and then inspite of a a very, very slow pace he stopped like he was shot. Hy Kodiak Warrior gobbled him up and forged to the lead into the short stretch. Then here came the #5 horse and he just got by on the wire. That one was a 4/1 winner......yes, Biblical. Sigh, Todd Pletcher pays double digits without me. So, I was "right" about Brasstown, made a "good bet" on Hy Kodiak Warrior, but didn't cash. Right back in the sixth we were on the turf and I liked Bill Mott's Penalty. Went off at 9/2 and like Kodiak Warrior forged to the front in deep stretch, only to be caught in the final fifty yards by the favorite. Back-to-back seconds on price plays.....would have collected $130 and change. Sigh.....Spliced between those two events was the fourth at Tampa - a five and a half furlong sprint for non-winners of two lifetime. Shanghai Shuffle had run very poorly for Todd Pletcher in his first three starts then moved to the Joan Scott barn and off a long layoff he'd earned four straight mid-to-low 40 Beyer figures. That won't win many stakes races but in here it would take a career effort to beat him. He moved willingly approaching the far turn from mid-pack, glided to the front while being confidently handled and sprinted home the easiest of winners. My sixth win of the day and I've yet to turn the page of my selection sheet!
It would be multiple races before I cashed again. Of the seven missed races I hit the board once, so I really wasn't ever on the edge of my seat. The one that irked me however was in Gulfstream's 7th. I liked Coniston from post twelve going two turns on the turf because jockey Irad Ortiz had been so hot this week. I thought he'd burst out of the gate and easily clear the field, then have a chance to wire this non-winners of two event. But AS THE HORSES WERE WALKING ONTO THE TURF the announcement came that there had been a rider switch.....on #12! Irad Ortiz who had piled up 98 wins here this winter would be replaced by Luca Panici, who had 8, yes EIGHT wins. A 6% rider replacing a 26% winning rider. And we are JUST finding out now as they approach the gate? I was nearly certain it wasn't because of an injury because there hadn't been any riders fall today. And I was further irritated when Irad Ortiz rode in the 9th race. What was that all about? Of course under Panici Croniston did not break sharply, was fourth and wide all the way around and finished fourth at 5/1 odds. Grrrrrrr. I had looked at the Santa Anita card because I KNEW I was playing the featured event this afternoon. And I had found a bet in their second race, a rich $75K Maiden Claiming sprint for three-year-olds. I could have understood if you went against the likely favorite, Platimum Nights who was racing for a maiden claiming tag for the third time today. BUT, to me he got a pass. The first time he'd raced for a tag it was a $100K tag, then the next time it was an $80K tag. So he was still dropping in class, and even better, BOTH times for a tag he'd run significantly better than when he'd faced MSW rivals. Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith got him to the front early on....faced pressure to the top of the stretch and then ran away at even money.
My only concern in the first of the three stakes at Gulfstream, the Melody of Colors on the turf for three-year-old fillies, sprinting five furlongs, was why did So Cal trainer John Sadler ship across the country to run for $75K with this 3x Euro winner? Conversely, you don't come all this way just to "get a race into her." But when the gates opened she was left at the gate. Belated run to finish fourth at 7/2, but GP analyst Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet went wire to wire at 3/1 - and she'd been my second choice. The eighth at Aqueduct was their feature, the Franklin Square Stakes going six furlongs for three-year-old fillies. This featured several who appeared to have talent and two that were side-by-side both unbeaten in two starts. I liked Stonesintheroad of those two. She simply looked best and more importantly fastest on paper. If the race played out as I saw it she'd outrun the competition and wire the field. Call me psychic.....right the the front and L-O-N-G gone at nearly 2/1 odds with my double investment tagged on so I'd cash for almost $30.
In the tenth at Gulfstream EVERYONE liked Where Paradise Lay who had been a sharp third while over four lengths clear of the rest of the field in his debut AND got a 75 Beyer for the effort. Every other runner was making their debut and the trainer stats with first time starters read: 9%, 5%, 10%, 8%, 17% (for a barn that's 1-for-22 at the meet), 0% and 0%. Meanwhile 'Paradise's trainer was winning at a 44% clip this winter. Sent off at an inflated 2/1 price he sat mid-pack to the top of the stretch, then collared the 5/2 leader. But instead of going by they dueled.....PHOTO FINISH. Lost. This first timer came from one of the 0-for barns with debut runners. Sigh...... Minutes later I was watching from the Fair Grounds when Free Cover dueled through the stretch and was in a photo - 2nd at a big 4/1 with a double investment; then at Gulfstream in the featured Grade 3 Hal's Hope I went with Todd Pletcher's Copper Town. Jockey Javier Castellano was last out of the gate, got to the front at the top of the stretch then was run down by John Velazquez on the OTHER Todd Pletcher at 7/1. In between races Pletcher commented that in the next, the Texas Glitter Stakes his late-running Stand Up had a good chance but he wanted Castellano to break sharper than last time. Broke dead last - belated finish when an nonthreatening fifth. In the finale Castellano was on Comic City who was the 5/2 favorite. Bobbled slightly out of the gate, sigh.....raced up on heels and had to steady; was caught between runners and had to check slightly.....wow. Made a bid and flattened out through the lane to finish fifth. I missed twice at Santa Anita with good looking - on paper - runners (4th at 9/2 and third at 3/5) before the BIG race, the Grade 2 Buena Vista at a mile on the turf. Jerry Hollendorfer's Vasilika had been claimed for $40K a year ago. After a photo finish second in her first for Hollendorfer she beat a listed stakes field; then a nw1x and a nw2x followed by another listed stakes win. She took a $100K AOC event, then stepped up and won the Grade 2 John Mabee. Next she won the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive, followed by the Grade 2 Goldikova. Finally the 8-race win streak was stopped when fourth in the Grade 1 Matriarch two back. She'd come off the shelf to beat rivals in the Grade 3 Megahertz over this course to run her local record to an amazing 9/8-1-0. She figured to be a short price, but she'd not had a real break in nearly a year. Still fresh enough to beat these? The lone speed went a wicked :45 and change into the far turn but was over half a dozen clear - would she stop? Here came Vasilika with momentum while five wide. Blew by to win going away and motored down. She is GOOD.
Ended with nine wins for 28 picks and a solid day of racing. Coupled with the multiple wins for the week I am VERY satisfied with the month of February and how it's going!
February 23rd Day At The Races Highlights
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