February 21 - 24
While I actually have done the numbers before, I often say to people when talking about my handicapping, that no matter what the time frame.....a day, a week, a month, a season, or over the span of some 25,000 races since I began keeping detailed records.....I am as consistent as the rising sun that I score in and around 35% winners. And that if I have a hot streak, I WILL come back down to my numbers over that time frame, and conversely if I go on a skid I WILL have a strong run to bring them back up. And this explains the week. After a red hot start to the week, I had a just below average Saturday, then tailed off Sunday to bring the week's totals to 58/22-9-3, which is a nice 37.9% winners. Funny, eh?
Wednesday February 20
The first day of the racing week was a very formful week and I attribute a lot of statistical success to days like today. In this handicapping game you can play for value and to make money, or - in my opinion be realistic - play for the fun of the game and try to pick the winners. Then you let the chips fall where they may and understand that like all entertainment it comes at a cost. But the advantage to handicapping for entertainment is that sometimes, and if you're good at it more times than not, you will get some if not all your money back. That doesn't happen when you travel, go to the movies, go out to eat, etc. Today's racing card seemed to have several races where the winners were pretty clear cut, and everyone would know it. The one thing "different" for me today was that I was conservative with my money management because while the winners seemed likely, I wasn't about to risk a lot often to win a little overall. After a pass in the first race it seemed pretty obvious in the second that Maximum Security would run his unbeaten record to three in a row for the hottest barn on the grounds, Jason Servis (46%). Not like he needed any statistical advantage, but Maximum Security had nearly paired figures in his first two wins (83-81) and just looked tons the best. Right to the front and took off willingly with the final margin noted in the charts of 18 1/4 lengths. YOWZA. No wonder that later in the week I read that he's being considered for the Derby trail.
Listed at 3/5 in the program you KNEW we wouldn't make any money, strictly a "I picked the winner" kind of selection. Like the opener, the third and fourth were races I didn't like bringing us to the fifth, a 3yo claiming event for turf sprinters. Two ways to go here, much like with Maximum Security's race.....either you're in on the favorite or you pass. Of the eight lined up to take on Honolulu Express, he'd beaten four of them and the other four just didn't figure in the outcome. I'd have upped the investment like Maximum Security since he was on a 4-for-5 streak at this distance and class level in the last two with hot riding Irad Ortiz up. But he was moving into a new barn which didn't have good numbers. It's the horse that runs the race, but this would be just the kind of circumstance you'd say "go figure" afterwards, so I only went for the minimum play. Ortiz patiently handled him near the back, made his move three-wide and blew by to edge clear by daylight late. And I'm two-for-two.
In the next The Mighty Judge looked every bit as overwhelming a favorite and was listed at 4/5 in the program. BUT these were maiden claimers for a basement tag and the fact that he was the DRF's Mike Welsch's "Best" didn't influence me because I rarely like those as much as he apparently does. Again it was play the chalk or watch. I went with the minimum and he was a fading fourth. Todd Pletcher's False Info was the 9/5 favorite in the seventh and he got one of M-A-N-Y questionable rides by jockey Javier Castellano this week. Sped to a big lead early going way too fast, then collapsed late. The eighth was another 3yo MSW on the grass but this time Beautiful Lover looked very logical. She'd debuted last time for Chad Brown and got to the front in the stretch, only to be gunned down by her stablemate who blew by from the back. Today with second race improvement she looked talented enough to win in spite of how Castellano would ride her. Moved three wide on the turn, opened up and was CLEARLY the best as she drew off handily. Three for five on the day!
The last bet of the day was the one "gamble" I had. Band of Angels was sent out in a turf sprint by Jorge Navarro and she sported a 6-for-13 lifetime resume, including four of six at this sprint distance. She was on a four-race streak heading into her December 30th race and that's where the handicapping got dicey. True, as the comments read, she had clipped heels and been in tight. But in watching the replay even if she'd had a clean run I didn't think she'd have won that race. Was she tailing off? Two questions for today - would she be patiently handled, because if she got into a speed duel she would NOT win; and second, if ridden patiently would she produce her "A" game or "B" game - the former would result in a dominant win, the latter an also-ran finish. Sometimes you "see" the race and sometimes it just unfolds differently. She broke right on the money and immediately was clear, all alone on the front end. It was over before they even hit the far turn as Band of Angels ran comfortably in front to the wire.
Finished the day 4-for-6 and had a tidy little profit for the day!
Oh it was a great day today! Before Kim's dad passed away the plan had been for last weekend I'd be in Arkansas with my buddy Jim Anderson. We'd heard from my good friend John Baird - who travels more than I do if you can believe it - that he and his wife Kim would be in Fort Lauderdale for one day, Thursday Feb 21st and could we get together for dinner. I had initially told him that the plan couldn't be better because I was scheduled to fly back home late on the 18th and we had plans for the 20th to see our great friends Sue & Dan Reynolds on the 20th, then we were leaving for Orlando on the 22nd! But with the way it worked out I now had the day and evening to myself. Well, playing into this was that our Florida Panthers hockey team played eleven home games this month and we were looking forward to seeing a lot of those. I knew I'd miss a couple with my Mom in town for a week, but with the out-of-town services I had been to only two games of the first seven....and I knew that I'd be missing at least one more of the home events. So with all this in play I messaged John on Wednesday and asked if perhaps we could meet for lunch instead of dinner. He said that would be great and then he told me they were staying at the Hollywood Diplomat hotel. I googled it's location and discovered it was 2.9 miles from Gulfstream! I told him that he couldn't have picked a better spot and that I'd make a day of it by going to the races after we met. But I added they could gladly join me if they liked, but my car was a two-seater. He talked it over with "his Kim" and it was decided that I'd pick him up and we would have lunch at Gulfstream and spend the day there. I then said that I'd understand if he couldn't but I'd enjoy keeping him with me all day and after the races we could head back to the house, grab something to eat and then go to the hockey game together and then I would be willing to drive him back to the hotel late that night. His wife said to GO FOR IT and so the plans were made. Could not have come at a better time with me being alone for two weeks. We thoroughly enjoyed spending nearly the entire day together. I left the house at about 10:30 am and didn't get back until after midnight! The only "negative" to the day was we didn't have a big winning day at the races and the Panthers collapsed in the third period to lose a close one. Still, a great day with a great friend. Before we go through the racing recap let me up front and honest about a decision I made. Because we were spending the day at the races I decided to pick races at Laurel on a "just for fun" basis. Sure, I would have counted them if they'd added to the winning totals but I told myself that these weren't "real" handicapping picks. The selections from Maryland basically cost us our Gulfstream profits as I was a solid 3-for-7 at GP by the Sea (that's over 40% for those without calculators!) In the opener I liked Todd Pletcher's Divide - well, I didn't LIKE him but as I told John, I wasn't about to let another Pletcher runner get away at a price. Sixth at 4/1. In the second it was like so many of the races yesterday where Gran Bonita Chica was 3/5 in the program and figured to be hammered. But like Honolulu Express yesterday she was moving to a new barn. The DRF showed 11% first off the claim but the "Closer Look" said it was 26% first off the claim HERE. With 36 of the 37 Beyers earned by the rest of the field not good enough to beat her last three winning races I doubled the bet. Sent off as a prohibitive 1-2 favorite she tracked in third to the turn then stopped like she was shot, finishing fifth of six beaten double digit lengths. Wow. In the third Kaylie's Girl was another one of "those favorites" but she was going for a barn who DID have the numbers. In fact I remarked in my analysis that trainer Gilberto Zerpa may as well have asked the racing secretary to put together a race where NO ONE could compete with his first-off-the-claim filly. These were a BAD lot. And he was 48% first off the claim, 44% with jockey Emisael Jaramillo. She was a miniscule 1-9 at post time and burst to the front, in complete control to the final furlong. But then you could noticeably see not only was she tiring but the 5/1 second choice was gobbling up ground two strides to one.....where's the wire!
Held on and John and I couldn't have cared less that we only got paid $2.20 for every $2 bet, it was a winner! In the fourth I had anticipated back-to-back short-priced winners so "track logic" said the favorite may go down here. I liked Shug McGaughey's Fast Talking who was a big 8/1 in the program to upset this maiden special sprint for older. Sure enough, under Jose Ortiz he came roaring up as they turned for home and drew off while paying a generous $10.80 - wish I'd upped the bet in anticipation of making a little cash!
We walked over to the Yardhouse and had lunch which didn't take long and we were back in our seats for the fifth. Tell Me A Story went off at 7/2 - bet down from his 10/1 program odds - and led to deep stretch before being caught....best of the rest second. Biz Notes ran for Todd Pletcher in the fifth, but I was skeptical because Joe Bravo was up instead of the regular Pletcher riders. Still, wasn't about to let him pay a price without me. Went off at 7/2 and was a fading fifth. In the last race we watched live, the seventh I really should have upped the bet even more than I did. As I explained to John, every winter there's one or two horses with this same kind of story. The conditions of the race and the circumstances just are a perfect fit. The conditions read, ".....for runners who've raced at Gulfstream since December 1st and haven't finished first, second, or third since that race...." - I've NEVER seen conditions like that. To be fair, several fit those conditions but when put into perspective to his last couple of races he was a solid play. As a runner who liked to be on or near the lead.....
.....he'd been in back to back races where the track bias - and we could have an entire discussion about the merits of this being true, or not. Let me just say at this point that you no longer have to look at the provided track variant number in the DRF past performances because they now have symbols that I've found are pretty reliable. Check out the key.....
So, if you put together the facts that Franklin Towers was a perfect fit for the conditions, was dropping in class from OPEN $35K claimers to "beaten" $16K claimers, and that he'd run TWICE in a row against a strong bias, then IF he got a fair track today he was a very likely winner. Right to the front and was long, LONG gone. That we got 4/5 was generous.....should have opened up the wallet in retrospect.
We left for home and grabbed a burrito from Tijuana Flats (John had never had a burrito!) and then watched the replay of our final bet - ran a fading fifth at 9/5. We headed to the game and enjoyed a great evening together. What a great pal - what a great day!
Friday February 22
I watched the streaming live feed all afternoon while I handicapped for my adventure on track Saturday. In the opener I backed Todd Pletcher's Adamant, who'd been my BEST of the day when I was on track a few weeks ago with what turned out to be the last time with my father-in-law Ed. He was JUST up in time so he wasn't a big time play, but I wasn't going to let a Pletcher 3yo get away. No factor. In the second it was decision time as it was another 3yo race, a maiden claimer and yes there was a Pletcher runner - but there were TWO of them. EVERYONE liked the one with experience, Ms. Maximum and she was the prohibitive favorite. I thought she'd have every chance to win but just didn't like that as a Pletcher runner she'd already lost twice and for a tag. Instead I went with first time starter Don't Rush. I waivered in the minutes before post time but then decided I was willing to give up a short priced Pletcher but would be unforgiving if I HAD picked the longer shot and changed my mind. As the field neared the far turn Ms. Maximum was pulled up! Oh, how unfortunate for her and her connections but oh-so-fortunate for me! Don't Rush dueled into the lane then ran away like a typical Pletcher maiden 3yo. And the best part......she paid a big $9.80 meaning I'd cash for nearly $50 to start off today! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
In the third we were going two turns on the turf with maiden special three-year-olds. It's funny - to me at least - about how handicapping is so "esoteric" and it's more than the numbers. You have to have "a sense" or "a feel" for interpreting the past performances. I truly believe a lot of my success is due not only to having done this for so long and looked at so many past performances, then watched so many races, but also because I handicap so frequently. So Wednesday there were a boatload of favorites, and I liked them .... finished four for six on the day. Today, I didn't like favored Ms. Maximum and I didn't like the obvious experienced runner in the third, Preacher Power. He'd run four straight races that SHOULD be good enough to win, but had finished 2nd or 3rd in all of them, losing by two lengths, one length, a half length and a head. Didn't like that he was not showing improvement on the Beyer scale. So I went with what turned out to be the favorite, Battle of Memphis who had also come close previously. Today he got Irad Ortiz who's not only hot overall, but scoring at 26% for Casse. Was four wide from the wide draw into the first turn, then tracked the leaders to the far turn. Swung up under what looked to be a confident ride and was able to hold everyone safe to the wire. And I'd had enough confidence to triple the bet so I'd cash for nearly $30!
As I said at the outset today, I was handicapping the races from around the country for Saturday. And when I opened what I thought were the Saturday races from Tampa I realized I'd inadvertently downloaded TODAY's card. Before looking through it I went to Brisnet and looked at the morning line and was surprised to see (a) a Todd Pletcher 3yo in an allowance event AND that John Velazquez was in Tampa today with the colt, Spinoff being his ONLY MOUNT OF THE DAY. Now if Johnny V is travelling to Tampa for a single ride, there must be more to it. Indeed. Spinoff had scored in his debut at Gulfstream in June. Pletcher thought enough of him to ship to Saratoga and run in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. He was a good third - which would have been a sharp effort in and off itself going first time against winners, but also shipping from a Gulfstream summer maiden win. But then you note that the winner that day, Call Paul had won back-to-back stakes since then - the latest a runaway win here in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes, and the runner-up had been stakes placed. The distance of this event, a mile and forty yards seemed to me like the kind of prep you'd use with a 3yo at this time of year to see, maybe just maybe he might be a Derby trail kind of runner. He sat right behind the front-runner who set insanely fast splits for two turns (22.3 - :45.4) but when asked to take off heading into the far turn he did so willingly. As they turned for home I thought, "....we'll see now just how good this colt is....." Instead of having to fight off the closers he widened with every stride and drew off to score by nearly a dozen in an ultra-impressive effort. Over the next few days I saw several articles about Spinoff being the latest newcomer to the Derby trail!
In the fourth R Limo Joe LOOKED to be a solid favorite and the lone speed, but like Wednesday I thought he was a likely winner but didn't have full confidence. Went in for the minimum and he stopped badly as the 3/5 favorite. Typically I am not the best of handicappers with five furlong turf sprints, but this winter I've had a lot more winners because there have been a number of them sent out by Jason Servis, who is THE best turf sprint trainer in the country, AND he's just winning at an incredible rate - 47% as of today. AND most of them have Irad Ortiz up who is scoring at an insane 52% for Servis here. How do you go against that? You don't! Especially when a runner like Motza Bella who finished second last time with TWO next-out winners behind her. Servis a big 42% first off the claim, and the fact that he was RAISING her in price from $25K to $50K I saw as a move of confidence. She dueled early, looked to have plenty left, but after putting away the front-running rival and getting clear into the stretch the :21 and change and :44 and change pace took it's toll and she was all out to hold off not one but two strong finishers. But she did and with another triple investment I'd won another near $25.
Passed the 7th - ironically I had the winner (at 9/5) as my top choice. The eighth was a maiden claiming event for $20K with a full field of eleven older runners. Typically older runners for this price level are a "go figure" group. But in here, Clear For Action had posted two most recent numbers that were daylight better than 64-of-the-68 combined races by his rivals today. None of those horses gave any indication of having the ability to reproduce such a number today AND Clear For Action was dropping in class for the very first time from MSW to maiden claiming. Jose Ortiz on the Ramsey colt looked really good. I'd have gone in deeper had he not been an older maiden. Right to the front and once allowed to run just blew the doors off the field by half a dozen widening lengths without being asked for his best.
I missed with my last pick but finished a sharp five for eight on the day with a big profit, thanks to the early Pletcher winner, and now was sitting on a a week's total of 12 wins from 21 selections, a near 60% strike rate!
Sunday February 24
Well, I knew that at some point my numbers had to return to reality and today happened to be the day. But I also think I'd have had a much better Sunday if Javier Castellano hadn't been completely clueless in his riding judgement today. Sigh...... The weather forecast had called for a big chance of rain so I handicapped all the turf races by looking at both dirt and turf potential win selections. Maybe this unknown factor played into my thinking, I don't know. But the lone win of the day came in the fifth with favored Chilled Milk. Ironically while he owned a Double Beyer speed figure advantage all the GP analysts picked against him because he'd run second if FIVE of eight starts. I went with him, for the minimum, because of the angle. Drew off by daylight as much the best.
Had two seconds that I thought easily could have been a winner in one if not both and a third from Castellano ridden horses (that one also COULD have won), but hey the numbers had to balance out. May as well have been today rather than next week as we prepare for the big Fountain of Youth Saturday.
On a side note, I heard from one of my all time favorite former students, Tatiana Sanchez Sunday and she may join me at the races for Fountain of Youth Day. Obviously, who wouldn't want to spend the day with such a sweetie - and she's studying to be a doctor!
Wednesday February 20
The first day of the racing week was a very formful week and I attribute a lot of statistical success to days like today. In this handicapping game you can play for value and to make money, or - in my opinion be realistic - play for the fun of the game and try to pick the winners. Then you let the chips fall where they may and understand that like all entertainment it comes at a cost. But the advantage to handicapping for entertainment is that sometimes, and if you're good at it more times than not, you will get some if not all your money back. That doesn't happen when you travel, go to the movies, go out to eat, etc. Today's racing card seemed to have several races where the winners were pretty clear cut, and everyone would know it. The one thing "different" for me today was that I was conservative with my money management because while the winners seemed likely, I wasn't about to risk a lot often to win a little overall. After a pass in the first race it seemed pretty obvious in the second that Maximum Security would run his unbeaten record to three in a row for the hottest barn on the grounds, Jason Servis (46%). Not like he needed any statistical advantage, but Maximum Security had nearly paired figures in his first two wins (83-81) and just looked tons the best. Right to the front and took off willingly with the final margin noted in the charts of 18 1/4 lengths. YOWZA. No wonder that later in the week I read that he's being considered for the Derby trail.
In the next The Mighty Judge looked every bit as overwhelming a favorite and was listed at 4/5 in the program. BUT these were maiden claimers for a basement tag and the fact that he was the DRF's Mike Welsch's "Best" didn't influence me because I rarely like those as much as he apparently does. Again it was play the chalk or watch. I went with the minimum and he was a fading fourth. Todd Pletcher's False Info was the 9/5 favorite in the seventh and he got one of M-A-N-Y questionable rides by jockey Javier Castellano this week. Sped to a big lead early going way too fast, then collapsed late. The eighth was another 3yo MSW on the grass but this time Beautiful Lover looked very logical. She'd debuted last time for Chad Brown and got to the front in the stretch, only to be gunned down by her stablemate who blew by from the back. Today with second race improvement she looked talented enough to win in spite of how Castellano would ride her. Moved three wide on the turn, opened up and was CLEARLY the best as she drew off handily. Three for five on the day!
The last bet of the day was the one "gamble" I had. Band of Angels was sent out in a turf sprint by Jorge Navarro and she sported a 6-for-13 lifetime resume, including four of six at this sprint distance. She was on a four-race streak heading into her December 30th race and that's where the handicapping got dicey. True, as the comments read, she had clipped heels and been in tight. But in watching the replay even if she'd had a clean run I didn't think she'd have won that race. Was she tailing off? Two questions for today - would she be patiently handled, because if she got into a speed duel she would NOT win; and second, if ridden patiently would she produce her "A" game or "B" game - the former would result in a dominant win, the latter an also-ran finish. Sometimes you "see" the race and sometimes it just unfolds differently. She broke right on the money and immediately was clear, all alone on the front end. It was over before they even hit the far turn as Band of Angels ran comfortably in front to the wire.
Finished the day 4-for-6 and had a tidy little profit for the day!
Oh it was a great day today! Before Kim's dad passed away the plan had been for last weekend I'd be in Arkansas with my buddy Jim Anderson. We'd heard from my good friend John Baird - who travels more than I do if you can believe it - that he and his wife Kim would be in Fort Lauderdale for one day, Thursday Feb 21st and could we get together for dinner. I had initially told him that the plan couldn't be better because I was scheduled to fly back home late on the 18th and we had plans for the 20th to see our great friends Sue & Dan Reynolds on the 20th, then we were leaving for Orlando on the 22nd! But with the way it worked out I now had the day and evening to myself. Well, playing into this was that our Florida Panthers hockey team played eleven home games this month and we were looking forward to seeing a lot of those. I knew I'd miss a couple with my Mom in town for a week, but with the out-of-town services I had been to only two games of the first seven....and I knew that I'd be missing at least one more of the home events. So with all this in play I messaged John on Wednesday and asked if perhaps we could meet for lunch instead of dinner. He said that would be great and then he told me they were staying at the Hollywood Diplomat hotel. I googled it's location and discovered it was 2.9 miles from Gulfstream! I told him that he couldn't have picked a better spot and that I'd make a day of it by going to the races after we met. But I added they could gladly join me if they liked, but my car was a two-seater. He talked it over with "his Kim" and it was decided that I'd pick him up and we would have lunch at Gulfstream and spend the day there. I then said that I'd understand if he couldn't but I'd enjoy keeping him with me all day and after the races we could head back to the house, grab something to eat and then go to the hockey game together and then I would be willing to drive him back to the hotel late that night. His wife said to GO FOR IT and so the plans were made. Could not have come at a better time with me being alone for two weeks. We thoroughly enjoyed spending nearly the entire day together. I left the house at about 10:30 am and didn't get back until after midnight! The only "negative" to the day was we didn't have a big winning day at the races and the Panthers collapsed in the third period to lose a close one. Still, a great day with a great friend. Before we go through the racing recap let me up front and honest about a decision I made. Because we were spending the day at the races I decided to pick races at Laurel on a "just for fun" basis. Sure, I would have counted them if they'd added to the winning totals but I told myself that these weren't "real" handicapping picks. The selections from Maryland basically cost us our Gulfstream profits as I was a solid 3-for-7 at GP by the Sea (that's over 40% for those without calculators!) In the opener I liked Todd Pletcher's Divide - well, I didn't LIKE him but as I told John, I wasn't about to let another Pletcher runner get away at a price. Sixth at 4/1. In the second it was like so many of the races yesterday where Gran Bonita Chica was 3/5 in the program and figured to be hammered. But like Honolulu Express yesterday she was moving to a new barn. The DRF showed 11% first off the claim but the "Closer Look" said it was 26% first off the claim HERE. With 36 of the 37 Beyers earned by the rest of the field not good enough to beat her last three winning races I doubled the bet. Sent off as a prohibitive 1-2 favorite she tracked in third to the turn then stopped like she was shot, finishing fifth of six beaten double digit lengths. Wow. In the third Kaylie's Girl was another one of "those favorites" but she was going for a barn who DID have the numbers. In fact I remarked in my analysis that trainer Gilberto Zerpa may as well have asked the racing secretary to put together a race where NO ONE could compete with his first-off-the-claim filly. These were a BAD lot. And he was 48% first off the claim, 44% with jockey Emisael Jaramillo. She was a miniscule 1-9 at post time and burst to the front, in complete control to the final furlong. But then you could noticeably see not only was she tiring but the 5/1 second choice was gobbling up ground two strides to one.....where's the wire!
Held on and John and I couldn't have cared less that we only got paid $2.20 for every $2 bet, it was a winner! In the fourth I had anticipated back-to-back short-priced winners so "track logic" said the favorite may go down here. I liked Shug McGaughey's Fast Talking who was a big 8/1 in the program to upset this maiden special sprint for older. Sure enough, under Jose Ortiz he came roaring up as they turned for home and drew off while paying a generous $10.80 - wish I'd upped the bet in anticipation of making a little cash!
We walked over to the Yardhouse and had lunch which didn't take long and we were back in our seats for the fifth. Tell Me A Story went off at 7/2 - bet down from his 10/1 program odds - and led to deep stretch before being caught....best of the rest second. Biz Notes ran for Todd Pletcher in the fifth, but I was skeptical because Joe Bravo was up instead of the regular Pletcher riders. Still, wasn't about to let him pay a price without me. Went off at 7/2 and was a fading fifth. In the last race we watched live, the seventh I really should have upped the bet even more than I did. As I explained to John, every winter there's one or two horses with this same kind of story. The conditions of the race and the circumstances just are a perfect fit. The conditions read, ".....for runners who've raced at Gulfstream since December 1st and haven't finished first, second, or third since that race...." - I've NEVER seen conditions like that. To be fair, several fit those conditions but when put into perspective to his last couple of races he was a solid play. As a runner who liked to be on or near the lead.....
.....he'd been in back to back races where the track bias - and we could have an entire discussion about the merits of this being true, or not. Let me just say at this point that you no longer have to look at the provided track variant number in the DRF past performances because they now have symbols that I've found are pretty reliable. Check out the key.....
So, if you put together the facts that Franklin Towers was a perfect fit for the conditions, was dropping in class from OPEN $35K claimers to "beaten" $16K claimers, and that he'd run TWICE in a row against a strong bias, then IF he got a fair track today he was a very likely winner. Right to the front and was long, LONG gone. That we got 4/5 was generous.....should have opened up the wallet in retrospect.
We left for home and grabbed a burrito from Tijuana Flats (John had never had a burrito!) and then watched the replay of our final bet - ran a fading fifth at 9/5. We headed to the game and enjoyed a great evening together. What a great pal - what a great day!
Thursday February 21: A Day At The Races Highlights
Friday February 22
I watched the streaming live feed all afternoon while I handicapped for my adventure on track Saturday. In the opener I backed Todd Pletcher's Adamant, who'd been my BEST of the day when I was on track a few weeks ago with what turned out to be the last time with my father-in-law Ed. He was JUST up in time so he wasn't a big time play, but I wasn't going to let a Pletcher 3yo get away. No factor. In the second it was decision time as it was another 3yo race, a maiden claimer and yes there was a Pletcher runner - but there were TWO of them. EVERYONE liked the one with experience, Ms. Maximum and she was the prohibitive favorite. I thought she'd have every chance to win but just didn't like that as a Pletcher runner she'd already lost twice and for a tag. Instead I went with first time starter Don't Rush. I waivered in the minutes before post time but then decided I was willing to give up a short priced Pletcher but would be unforgiving if I HAD picked the longer shot and changed my mind. As the field neared the far turn Ms. Maximum was pulled up! Oh, how unfortunate for her and her connections but oh-so-fortunate for me! Don't Rush dueled into the lane then ran away like a typical Pletcher maiden 3yo. And the best part......she paid a big $9.80 meaning I'd cash for nearly $50 to start off today! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
In the third we were going two turns on the turf with maiden special three-year-olds. It's funny - to me at least - about how handicapping is so "esoteric" and it's more than the numbers. You have to have "a sense" or "a feel" for interpreting the past performances. I truly believe a lot of my success is due not only to having done this for so long and looked at so many past performances, then watched so many races, but also because I handicap so frequently. So Wednesday there were a boatload of favorites, and I liked them .... finished four for six on the day. Today, I didn't like favored Ms. Maximum and I didn't like the obvious experienced runner in the third, Preacher Power. He'd run four straight races that SHOULD be good enough to win, but had finished 2nd or 3rd in all of them, losing by two lengths, one length, a half length and a head. Didn't like that he was not showing improvement on the Beyer scale. So I went with what turned out to be the favorite, Battle of Memphis who had also come close previously. Today he got Irad Ortiz who's not only hot overall, but scoring at 26% for Casse. Was four wide from the wide draw into the first turn, then tracked the leaders to the far turn. Swung up under what looked to be a confident ride and was able to hold everyone safe to the wire. And I'd had enough confidence to triple the bet so I'd cash for nearly $30!
As I said at the outset today, I was handicapping the races from around the country for Saturday. And when I opened what I thought were the Saturday races from Tampa I realized I'd inadvertently downloaded TODAY's card. Before looking through it I went to Brisnet and looked at the morning line and was surprised to see (a) a Todd Pletcher 3yo in an allowance event AND that John Velazquez was in Tampa today with the colt, Spinoff being his ONLY MOUNT OF THE DAY. Now if Johnny V is travelling to Tampa for a single ride, there must be more to it. Indeed. Spinoff had scored in his debut at Gulfstream in June. Pletcher thought enough of him to ship to Saratoga and run in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. He was a good third - which would have been a sharp effort in and off itself going first time against winners, but also shipping from a Gulfstream summer maiden win. But then you note that the winner that day, Call Paul had won back-to-back stakes since then - the latest a runaway win here in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes, and the runner-up had been stakes placed. The distance of this event, a mile and forty yards seemed to me like the kind of prep you'd use with a 3yo at this time of year to see, maybe just maybe he might be a Derby trail kind of runner. He sat right behind the front-runner who set insanely fast splits for two turns (22.3 - :45.4) but when asked to take off heading into the far turn he did so willingly. As they turned for home I thought, "....we'll see now just how good this colt is....." Instead of having to fight off the closers he widened with every stride and drew off to score by nearly a dozen in an ultra-impressive effort. Over the next few days I saw several articles about Spinoff being the latest newcomer to the Derby trail!
In the fourth R Limo Joe LOOKED to be a solid favorite and the lone speed, but like Wednesday I thought he was a likely winner but didn't have full confidence. Went in for the minimum and he stopped badly as the 3/5 favorite. Typically I am not the best of handicappers with five furlong turf sprints, but this winter I've had a lot more winners because there have been a number of them sent out by Jason Servis, who is THE best turf sprint trainer in the country, AND he's just winning at an incredible rate - 47% as of today. AND most of them have Irad Ortiz up who is scoring at an insane 52% for Servis here. How do you go against that? You don't! Especially when a runner like Motza Bella who finished second last time with TWO next-out winners behind her. Servis a big 42% first off the claim, and the fact that he was RAISING her in price from $25K to $50K I saw as a move of confidence. She dueled early, looked to have plenty left, but after putting away the front-running rival and getting clear into the stretch the :21 and change and :44 and change pace took it's toll and she was all out to hold off not one but two strong finishers. But she did and with another triple investment I'd won another near $25.
Passed the 7th - ironically I had the winner (at 9/5) as my top choice. The eighth was a maiden claiming event for $20K with a full field of eleven older runners. Typically older runners for this price level are a "go figure" group. But in here, Clear For Action had posted two most recent numbers that were daylight better than 64-of-the-68 combined races by his rivals today. None of those horses gave any indication of having the ability to reproduce such a number today AND Clear For Action was dropping in class for the very first time from MSW to maiden claiming. Jose Ortiz on the Ramsey colt looked really good. I'd have gone in deeper had he not been an older maiden. Right to the front and once allowed to run just blew the doors off the field by half a dozen widening lengths without being asked for his best.
I missed with my last pick but finished a sharp five for eight on the day with a big profit, thanks to the early Pletcher winner, and now was sitting on a a week's total of 12 wins from 21 selections, a near 60% strike rate!
Saturday February 23
Click HERE to read the stories from today's day at the races!
Saturday February 23 Racing Highlights
Sunday February 24
Well, I knew that at some point my numbers had to return to reality and today happened to be the day. But I also think I'd have had a much better Sunday if Javier Castellano hadn't been completely clueless in his riding judgement today. Sigh...... The weather forecast had called for a big chance of rain so I handicapped all the turf races by looking at both dirt and turf potential win selections. Maybe this unknown factor played into my thinking, I don't know. But the lone win of the day came in the fifth with favored Chilled Milk. Ironically while he owned a Double Beyer speed figure advantage all the GP analysts picked against him because he'd run second if FIVE of eight starts. I went with him, for the minimum, because of the angle. Drew off by daylight as much the best.
Had two seconds that I thought easily could have been a winner in one if not both and a third from Castellano ridden horses (that one also COULD have won), but hey the numbers had to balance out. May as well have been today rather than next week as we prepare for the big Fountain of Youth Saturday.
On a side note, I heard from one of my all time favorite former students, Tatiana Sanchez Sunday and she may join me at the races for Fountain of Youth Day. Obviously, who wouldn't want to spend the day with such a sweetie - and she's studying to be a doctor!
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