January 8 - 11

The Calm Before The Storm (Week 7)

This week was just "a week" of racing as this coming Saturday is Sunshine Millions which will probably have the better horses that do NOT race on Pegasus Saturday which is the following week.  So this week there were not many quality runners.  But there were multiple 3yo races as the sophomores begin to heat up with the spring preps fast approaching.  Not a single day offered a "wow" kind of horse, though perhaps Sunday might have but we had plans already for the day.  So I spent the week in the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - that would be here at home :)

Wednesday January 8
Wednesday's card for some reason had post time pushed back to 1 pm and only nine races on the program.  I never did hear why that was.  In the opener I like Todd Pletcher's Days of Spring in a maiden event for 3yo.  Bid at 2/1 on the turn then flattened out to finish fourth.  The anticipated speed duel did NOT develop in the second, so my stalker ran third.  In the fourth I went with Hey Kitten who'd had a very eventful trip last time and got a rider change to Irad Ortiz.  A lot of handicappers like Unexplainable to wire the field.  That one set the pace and caved on the turn, so my pick was a runaway winner.  Two minimum bets in the last two races failed to score so that was it on the first day of the seventh week of the Championship Meet.

Thursday January 9

A weakening fifth in the opener was followed by Todd Pletcher's Uncle Skeets being a best of the rest second in the next race.  Uncle Curly ran to his best Beyer figures to win the third - and I watched it on replay.  But when I checked the payoff my number was third....DQ'd - wow.  Todd Pletcher's Silver Palace was off slowly, sat mid-pack and stopped badly to be last in the fourth.  Fading fourth as the 6/5 favorite in my next, followed by Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet setting the pace and getting caught in the lane, second.  In the finale trainer Terri Pompay had taught Mrs. Maisel to relax from off the pace in turf sprints, resulting in her maiden win and a best-of-the-rest second vs. better last time out.  She flew home to score to salvage the day as the single winner on Thursday.

Friday January 10
Not the best of weeks so far and on today's card I had eight picks.  Never-in-it-ninth as the 9/5 favorite in the opener, but bounced back with a win in the second with Freezer Burn.  Her two career start Beyers were best in the field but the fact she'd been 2nd and 3rd as the favorite in those made me hesitant to go any deeper than a minimum wager.  Stalked the pace setters, took over turning for home and then Tyler Gafflione was all-out to just hang on.  But hey, a win's a win!

Passed the third and in the fourth, a high priced ($75K) maiden claimer for 3yo on the turf I liked Todd Pletcher's Make A Stand.  First time out he was drawn inside and tried to make up ground through slow fractions.  I was hoping the better draw and more reasonable pace would allow Javier Castellano to get the colt home today.  Put up close he pressed the leader to mid-way on the backstretch, took over and held the field at bay to the wire.  For a Pletcher runner with an excuse last time out he paid a generous $6.60, allowing me to cash for more than $30.

Missed with the "obvious" 4/5 favorite who was never in the race.  Then it was time for my BEST BET of the Day.  Tiger Blood showed six races that the combined 102 Beyers of his rivals only showed TWO that would be COMPETITIVE with ANY of them.  Jockey Edgard Zayas sat just off the leader of the five furlong turf sprint to the turn, moved to challenge and drew off as much, MUCH the best.  My THIRD winner of the day.

Passed the seventh and in the eighth it was all about Blue Magic in another turf sprint.  She had paired numbers, was dropping out of a Claiming Crown stakes where she ran third in for a first time tag and had hot riding Irad Ortiz up.  Sat patiently in fifth, made her move and was driving to the wire getting up JUST in time!

Fifth as the tepid favorite in the ninth and then a dismal 9th and last at 4/5 in the finale closed the day.  But, it was a good day with four winners!

Saturday January 11:  Marshua's River Day
Two turf graded stakes "highlighted" the program but honestly it seemed to be all about the three year olds through the opening six races.  The opener was a 3yo MSW and Mr. Philly Dilly was one of the few with experience and looked tough to beat.  But I wasn't going to go against Todd Pletcher's Silver Ration.  The former was the short priced favorite with Silver Palace hovering between 2/1 and 3/1 until post time.  A ton of late money came in on Pletcher's colt and he was the 3/2 favorite at post time.  The two favorites hooked up at the top of the stretch and laid it on the line the length of the stretch before Silver Ratio got up in time!  And I was off to a great start!  Because this race looked to me to be able to go either way and because the next TWO races looked similar I decided to play both a Daily Double and a Pick Three.  Check out how I saw the races.....

What was even more amazing that winning was that after winning the Daily Double and I checked the prices for the Pick 3 I saw they were $20, $60 and $65, which I assumed were for a $2 bet.  If my pick in the third won, at 3/5 I'd collect about $5 for the $8 bet, but at least I'd make money with the WIN ticket and I'd had insurance on two others for just three dollars.  So my horse was a fast closing second but I won the Pick 3 with the 5/1 shot.  Went to check exactly how much my payoff was and was surprised that it WAS the entire $64.60 because the payoffs apparently had been listed for a $0.50 bet, not a $2 bet :)  WHOOO HOOOO.

In the fourth Todd Pletcher sent out a $1 Million debut runner, a son of Uncle Mo.  Didn't like the rail draw nor that Javier Castellano was up but he just looked ultra talented and was being pounded at the windows, going off at 3/5.  While I cannot say positively that it was Castellano's fault, I CAN say that a couple of years ago what happened would never have happened with him on board.  Broke slowly - you KNOW if you're on a debut runner on the rail you HAVE to be especially sharp out of the gate - and then he ran up on heels and had to take a hold of Palm Springs and ease back.  Considering he finished second was remarkable after that trip.  Mark him for next time, especially with a rider switch.  Was amazed to again get a $6.60 payoff at Tampa when the clear speed of the race was allowed to float up in price.  Cashed for over $30 again.  Maybe it wasn't all Castellano because in the sixth Todd Pletcher's Unrighteous broke ninth under Luis Saez and never was in contention.  On New Year's Day I'd bet and watched Independence Hall win Aqueduct's Jerome Stakes to kick off his Derby trail.  He entered that race off a second start blow out score in the Grade 3 Remsen.  This is significant because in Gulfstream's 7th today, a 3yo entry level allowance Ny Traffic was running and THIS colt had finished third in the Parx debut behind Independence Hall.  Came back to win, then missed in a Parx stakes before transferring to trainer Saffie Joseph here in So Fla.  Making his local debut I liked him a lot more than the other two betting choices.  Saez took him right to the front and he was MUCH the best.

The eighth was the co-featured Grade 3 Marshua's River.  And I played for a price angle runner in here because of what I liked about the filly AND that I did not like the two favorites that I knew would take a lot of wagering support.  Adina de Sur was going to be one of those two favorites and of the twelve running lines she had won two of her last three, but prior to that had lost NINE in a row.  And the two wins were in life-and-death photo finishes.  AND she was winless at Gulfstream.  Did not like her.  The other was Sweet Bye and Bye who had traded decisions with Adina Del Sur finishing second to that one's third two back before running third behind 'Del Sur last time out as the 3/2 favorite.  And her most recent win was in allowance company.  Hardly an endorsement to win this Grade 3.  So who DID I like?  Trainer Chad Brown who seems to win EVERY graded stakes race on the turf was sending out Magic Star.  This filly had broken her maiden at Saratoga at first asking in August.  Came back in an allowance race as the even money favorite and while the trouble line did not say so, the running line seemed to indicate there had been some issue mid-race as she'd suddenly dropped back then come on again.  So (a) it's Chad Brown, (b) she seems to have talent, (c) she comes here off a "darkened form" kind of effort, but (d) most importantly....with ALL the entry level allowance turf races, WHY would Brown enter the filly in a Gr 3 today when she was still eligible for the entry level condition?  Must know something we don't.  She was the early betting favorite, but then the crowd's money poured in on the two false favorites.  Turning for home jockey Irad Ortiz had to wait for running room and when none appeared he moved five wide and swooped up on the two betting choices.  Ran by them and held a late-closing long shot off to get the victory!

So happy that the late money came pouring in because Magic Star paid a very nice $7.20 and I cashed for nearly $40.  That was it for the day but with the two multi-race wager wins I finished six for eighteen and made a tidy little profit!

Sunday January 12
Two story lines dominated Sunday's racing.  The first was that I did have two winners and the second of them was a Todd Pletcher first time starter, a daughter of Curlin owned by the same couple that raced Magnum Moon a couple of years ago and that guy won the $1 Million Arkansas Derby.  Spice Is Nice showed steady works and had John Velazquez up today.  Johnny V got her racing position up close in fifth along the rail to the far turn.  The leader was not hugging the wood so he moved her through.  The real running was about to start when suddenly 'Spice shifted gears and with each stride drew further and further away.  The final margin of victory was by a dozen lengths, under wraps.  May be our pick for the Gulfstream Park Oaks!

The second story line was Chad Brown's filly Feedback making her comeback today.  She had been a "WOW" winner at Saratoga in 2018 and didn't resurface until the Gr 3 Forward Gal where Brown was quoted pre-race as saying she looked like a legitimate Oaks contender.  She had to really work hard to win that day, as my BEST BET, but Brown must have noticed she had a lot taken out of her because her next start was in a 7f Gr 2 at Keeneland and she finished third.  Not seen since April she was entered in this 2nd level allowance.  She just looked MUCH the best on paper, but I had my suspicions.  Still when hottie Acacia Courtney said the filly looked like the real deal I felt comfortable.  Gates opened and she immediately went to her knees with her nose actually touching the ground.  Obviously had little left for the stretch - fifth.  The only other winner on the day was one of those "bad bets" but I liked him any way.  Hard Count was a FIFTEEN time maiden (15/0-7-3).  But with that said, he was dropping in for a tag for the first time today and his two main "rivals" were runners who were 10/0-0-2 and 11/0-1-1.  Not formidable competition.  AND Hard Count's WORST turf Beyer would require a lifetime best to beat by anyone else.  Right to the front and never, ever had to take a deep breath.  Smart play, even at a short price.

Next week is Sunshine Millions week, and our grandson comes to visit....then stays with just his grand parents for several days, HORRAY!

Oliver Face-Timing With Grandma & Grandpa on his own iPad

New Year's Week

Happy New Year!

Wednesday January 1

Unlike last week where there was no racing on the holiday, we were "LIVE" today from Gulfstream.  I had six selections originally but my pick in the opener scratched.  After missing with the first four (did run 2nd and 3rd in two of the four) I finally got on the board for the week in Race 8.  I am always reluctant to back a deep closer, especially on a speed favoring track like Gulfstream.  But on Claiming Crown Day I'd backed Fast Pass and he came from dead last at the top of the stretch and some eight wide to lose by the smallest of noses in the Express Stakes.  There seemed to be enough speed to set him up today and to be fair he'd broken slowly last time.  A clean break and the drop in class should get him home.  Knowing all this STILL when he was dead last mid-way on the turn I had my doubts.  But when he hit high gear he just blew by the field and won going away, and geared down.  Impressive.

I had wanted to play the feature from Aqueduct today also.  Independence Hall had created some buzz after winning his maiden debut, he'd blown open the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in his 2yo finale by more than a dozen widening lengths.  I watched the replay and read the articles about the prohibitive 1/5 favorite for today's Jerome Stakes and it just looked like a "free bingo square" and a chance to see a legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect.  He broke slowly, but jockey Jose Ortiz guided him into the clear in the three path, and when asked he ran away as much the best.  He was a "BET of the Day" investment and while I didn't make a lot of money, it's like I've said many times.....I get a big rush from putting significant money on a runner I have a lot of confidence in, and he delivers.

Thursday January 2

Today I was honestly surprised with the results from the six picks I had at Gulfstream.  I had only a single winner, a second and four off the board finishes.  And it wasn't like I was picking longshots.  The second came on a 6/5 runner, the other misses came at 3/5, 2/1 and twice at 5/2.  But I did get Blameless home in the fifth, a maiden special for older on the turf.  He showed improved Beyer figures with each and every start and had run a career best off a layoff last time out.  Helped that two of the logicals were trained by Mark Casse who's barn was off to a 1-for-21 start.  Got to the front, cleared and then held on late for the win as the favorite.

Friday January 3:  Happy Anniversary

Kim and I celebrated our 33rd wedding anniversary today.  Neither of us would have believed you if you'd told us on that snowy Saturday afternoon in Erie that in the next thirty years and change we'd travel the world, sailing from Budapest to Amsterdam on the major rivers of Europe; visit Vietnam, climb to the top of the ancient Cambodian temples at Angkor Watt, climb the Great Wall of China, visit France, cruise the Mediterranean - including going to the Roman Colosseum and being serenaded under the stars while on a gondola on the canals of Venice - AND go to Alaska five times.  We have had one very, very happy marriage my friends.  On today's selection sheet I had seven selections.  Passed the opening two races and was disappointed to miss again on the first two selections of the day, especially in the fourth when I was 3/5 and it was a three horse field!  In Race 5 Hurricane Breeze looked like the best in a maiden claiming event on the turf.  She had run turf numbers that should win and her running style looked to put her in a good tracking spot under Tyler Gafflione.  Made her moving swinging out of the stretch to get clear and then drove to the wire while holding off the deep closers.....finally a winner :)

In the very next race it was my "best" bet of the day.  A maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile, and here it was a question of knowing your trainers.  Jorge Navarro had claimed Korczak out of a $20K sprint at Churchill Downs last time and today he had him in for $12.5K.  Normally the drop off a claim is a red flag, but Navarro does this routinely.  In addition jockey Luis Saez, a regular pilot for the barn was on board.  Finally he HAD won at about this level, facing$15K rivals two back and of the forty-five numbers posted by his rivals, Korczak's last two would beat 43 of them.  He was pounded to odds-on and wired the field like a short priced favorite should.  Two in a row!

I had mixed feelings about Rising Bella in the seventh.  On the one hand her figures said yes and she had been a just-miss second vs. $50K starter company, dropping to $35K today.  But her 1-for-7 mark made me uneasy.  Fourth spinning out of the turn she kicked into high gear and won going away and I had my third winner in a row.

A non-threatening fifth at 7/2 in the eighth; passed the ninth and had my final play of the day in the finale.  A maiden claimer for 3yo going a mile on the turf.  Gaby's Dream didn't have great form, but compared to the rest of the field it was hard to look past the human connections of owner Frank Calabrese, trainer Saffie Joseph, and jockey Paco Lopez.  Perfect trip third, saving ground on the rail she swung out at the top of the stretch.  And while she didn't blow by despite the drop in class, she edged clear inside the final 100 yards and I had my FOURTH winner of the day.  It truly was a very good anniversary!

Saturday January 4:  Sophomore Stakes Day
Up until Thursday the forecast for today had been rain and thunderstorms as a cold front was supposed to sweep through town and drop our temperatures considerably.  They revised it to a mix of sun and rain by Thursday night and so on Friday morning I handicapped the Gulfstream card and had picks for both turf and dirt in every race schedule for the grass.  But by Friday afternoon the forecast changed to be sunny and hot for Saturday with the front now due to sweep through sometime between 6 pm and 9 pm.  Ironically as I drove home at about 6 pm the rain started.  It was a gorgeous South Florida Saturday to be at the races!  It was also interesting that typically I have many bets at Gulfstream so I usually only handicap a couple other tracks.  But today there really weren't any big races anywhere else.  Under normal circumstances I'd have basically just played Gulfstream but for some reason I decided to handicap six tracks and even told Kim that I was more "open" to making picks today rather than looking for "solid" bets.  A good thing I analyzed the day's races that way because while I had ten winners, ONLY TWO were at Gulfstream Park!  I had picks in nearly all the Gulfstream races but my pick in the turf opener scratched out.  Considered playing my second choice, but all three of the GP analysts did not put him on top.  Decided I had enough picks and watched.  He won - should have been DQ'd but somehow the result stood.  Missed at Laurel and in Gulfstream's second before getting my first winner, at Tampa.  Singanothersong was a SIXTEEN time winner and was looking to extend his current winning streak.  Won as the favorite.

I missed on multiple selections over the next hour before finally getting my second winner, again at Tampa.  Here I was torn.  On the one hand, Ikeisgreat was the morning line favorite and had a best of one-hundred bullet.....love those kind of works.  But on the other hand trainer Jorge Navarro, based at Gulfstream, had sent Conquest Day to Tampa for his debut.  He'd worked regularly and Navarro has good debut numbers.  In the end the 216 wins by the Navarro barn trumped the 19 by the other.  The two of them were head and head at the top of the stretch but it was the first time starter that pulled clear to win decisively and paid a sweet $6.00 so I cashed for $30 :)

It was another 45 minutes until I cashed again and that included watching 1/5 favorite Make Me Smile cave at Laurel.  The third at the Fair Grounds was a claiming event that had conditions calling for runners who'd started for $5K or less, or running for a $10K claiming tag.  The ONLY runner in the field who'd never faced nickle claimers was Bold Rey.  Somehow the crowd let him get away at almost 3/1 and I cashed for almost $40.  At least when I'm winning I'm cashing some decent tickets!

The sixth at Gulfstream was the first of five three-year-old stakes, this one being the Limehouse going six furlongs.  Shivaree had wired the Buffalo Man a month ago while dueling from gate to wire, and it was logical to believe he'd "bounce" today.  But he'd worked twice so I doubted that.  But what DID worry me was he had the rail and there were at least four other speed types.  I wrote in my analysis that we'd know by the time they'd completed the opening quarter if he was going to have a legitimate chance.  Well I was dead wrong about that.  He broke a step slowly and jockey Emisael Jaramillo was content to let the other four duke it out up front.  They went a wicked :21 and change and :44 and change for the half mile.  Turning for home Shivaree was third and bidding up on the outside of the 17/1 longshot leader who'd emerged on top.  Inside the final furlong he got to the front and then cleared off.  AND....because he was being heavily bet both to win and in the multi-race wagers I upped my bet!  WHOOO HOOOO!

Missed at Aqueduct before in the third at Santa Anita I liked Phast Pharoah.  Just the kind of horse I'd typically avoid on a Saturday, but today, the fact that he was a son of hot freshman sire American Pharoah - who'd been throwing some turf winners - and the fact that he'd run good numbers in five previous starts AND got Joel Rosario today, all added up to him being the bet.  And he was clearly best through the lane.

I was third in the Gr 3 Kitten's Joy at Gulfstream with Todd Pletcher's Summer To Remember.  Anyone else moving a runner from a maiden win to a Gr 3 and I'd dismissed them.  But here, I wasn't about to let him beat me at a fair price.  Was second at Tampa after leading all the way to deep stretch.  Then finally got a win at Laurel.  Bye Bye Bertie fit the profile for an entry level allowance, which are hard to figure.  Lightly raced with good numbers.  But the problem was (a) she was exiting a MSW victory and (b) that had been in August.....of 2018!  Yet hot riding Trevor McCarthy was lured on board and the line maker made her the favorite.  And she ran to her odds, scoring as the 8/5 favorite.

Missed at Laurel and then in the biggest stunner of the day, Pauseforthecause was third as the odds-on choice in Aqueduct's La Verdad.  To be fair, as had been the case with M-A-N-Y of my horses today, the front runner missed the break and that's nearly always fatal for a front runner.  Missed on four more after that big disappointment until I closed the day by winning three of the last four races I saw live.  The first winner came in Santa Anita's featured three-year-old race, the Grade 3 Sham Stakes.  I am convinced I won this one because I follow and study racing.  Bob Baffert had two colts in here who had both won their debut.  One had won going five and a half furlongs and the other going a mile and a sixteenth....the Sham was a two-turn mile event.  But, earlier this week I read an article about this race and in it the author pointed out that historically Baffert seems to run the colts he really believes has talent in a sprint before stretching them out - two recent cases in point were Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify.  And the latter had won at 5 1/2 furlongs then won at a mile and a sixteenth in an allowance before taking the Santa Anita Derby and the Triple Crown.  So that pointed out Authentic, who according to the article, Baffert seemed to indicate had a world of talent.  He was my pick.  And he was the crowd's pick.  No surprise, especially from the rail that he went to the front, but on the far turn I thought, "Now we'll find out just how good this guy is."  And wow was he ever impressive.  Even when getting spooked at the furlong pole by the crowd and then nearly hitting the rail, which freaked him out again, he STILL won by a pole under wraps.  This colt is G-O-O-D.

And it was not only a cash-the-ticket victory, but a moral victory when I scored at the Fair Grounds in an entry level allowance - again, I attribute it to my following of racing.  Trainer Dallas Stewart is a good trainer and has won some big stakes.  But what he is most "known" for, at least to me is that he very often has runners hit the board at BIG odds.  And then they don't win when dropped into races you'd think they'd win based on their in-the-money finish in graded stakes.  Such was the case with Chess Chief who I was sure would be a short priced favorite.  After his maiden win he'd been in six stakes, five graded and just seemed to fit that profile.  Especially since he had lost twice in this entry level allowance condition.  Conversely Aurelius Maximus had moved into the Steve Asmussen barn before his last start.  This guy had been third at Saratoga in his debut then walked with his maiden win.  He then was fourth in his first try against winners in the Grade 1 Champagne where the three in front of him all became multiple graded stakes winners.  Off from that October 2018 event until last November he'd run fourth, and the show colt had since come back to win.  Second off the shelf and the subtle drop from NYRA to FG company made him the pick.  The heavily favored Chess Chief came to him at the top of the lane then flattened out - I KNEW IT!  'Aurelius paid $6.20 and I had a ticket worth more than $30!

The final live win came when Scarlett Heat blew by the field in a Santa Anita MSW turf event to give me my tenth win on the day.  It was a "good" day but I'd missed at Gulfstream and had several horses that looked like "clear" winners (with triple investments) that lost.  Still can't ever go wrong being at Gulfstream this time of the year.

Sunday January 5:  THE BIG DAY
When I handicapped the card for Sunday and published it on my web page I told Kim, "On Sunday, I'm going to win several races."  When she asked why I said I "knew" of two horses that WOULD win and was so confident that I was considering driving back down to Hallandale Beach to see these races live.  But in the end I decided not to.  One, the day Saturday had taken a lot out of me for some reason and I just didn't want to drive there and back for just a couple races, even with the weather being cool.  But largely the Florida Panthers had a late afternoon game that I wanted to watch.  I also thought that while the races were playing online I could work on several other projects I have going.  So I stayed home and watched online.  In the opener I like R Boy Evans who was being raised in class by Georgina Baxter after a good debut at GPW over their turf course.  But both those factors were shaky so I watched....he won.  The second was a maiden claiming sprint and I have a "rule" that with maidens, once you've lost six times I won't play you.  BUT.....the rule in handicapping is "There Are No Rules!"  So despite being an EIGHT-time maiden, Company Store was my pick.  First, I liked that he was trained by Saffie Joseph and ridden by Tyler Gafflione; they'd won several races on Saturday.  Second, he had four second place finishes but in ALL of those he had duel on the lead and today he looked like the LONE SPEED.  Nothing beats "Lone Speed," even the axiom that "A quitter, is a quitter, is a quitter."  Right to the front, clear to the eighth pole.  Began to tire and shorten stride but no one was good enough to catch him....WINNER!

I wasn't surprised when my price play didn't win the third, but everyone seemed to be all over first time starter Anima d'Or in the fourth.  Slow start, showed nothing.  Next up was the fifth and everyone who was following the races at Gulfstream knew that Andi's Kitten would be a miniscule price and SHOULD be the easiest of winners.  So much so that GP analyst Jason Blewitt pointed out that today's Rainbow Pick Six was essentially a Pick-5.  But as Ron Nicoletti responded, he SHOULD win, but as we often say, you have to actually run the race.  Andi's Kitten was being sent out in the colors of Ken & Sarah Ramsey by trainer Danny Gargan with Tyler Gafflione up.  All four of her Beyers would win comfortably here, and even her career low debut number would be challenged by one number on the page, two lengths slower that had been earned by a 10x maiden last spring who'd never run that fast or close to it since.  The comment about the Pick-6 struck a cord with me because in the next race I had a pick, and in the following race I had a "Prime Time" play that I was nearly as certain would win.  So I looked up who everybody liked in the middle leg - four horses were the consensus and one was scratched.  So I decided to play the Pick-3, I NEVER do that.  I singled Andi's Kitten on the front end, put three in the mix for the second leg, and singled in the final leg.  You could bet for a $1 but if I bet $5 it would only be $15.  I felt pretty confident that I'd get a much better payoff than what the win column would pay for $15 so I did it.  Andi's Kitten went right to the front and Tyler G never moved a muscle as she strolled home as the prohibitive favorite.

In the second leg as the field turned for home, my three picks were clear of the field.  I'm going to be alive in the Pick-3, I thought.  If I'm picking, I'd like to actually win the race and Micah's Girl did just that, pulling away late.  One more to go!

In this allowance turf sprint I thought that Pay Any Price was just oh-so-obvious, almost as much as Andi's Kitten had been.  I get it that he hadn't run since Memorial Day - when Kim and I went out to the races to watch him go wire to wire in the Crystal River Stakes for his 17th win at Gulfstream.  AND he is the world record holder at five furlongs.  I understand if you thought maybe he'd have to much pace pressure and the ten month layoff might get him.  But if you listened to Nicoletti and Blewitt they extolled how good good he was and that he'd been kicking down the barn doors to run.  Even more amped up since he had to scratch out of a stakes a week ago (where I'd had him on top).  For me I knew he'd get to the front, the question was would he last.  And in the many times I've seen him run, the only time he doesn't win is if he can't get clear early.  And he was nearly certain to do that today.  In spite of all that he left the gate as the second choice and at 9/5.  I was incredulous.  Right to the front, through sizzling fractions.  But when they turned for home he opened up and while tiring late, he was certain to win.  I'd won three in a row, two of them "BIG" bets and had hit the Pick 3!

Note the payoff for the Pick-3.  When I first saw it and saw $4.65 I thought, well for a $2 bet with two "mortal locks" doubling my money is pretty good.  Then I noted that was for a $.50 bet.  I was getting TEN TIMES that back - $46.50.  Oh my, nearly 3/1 odds on two mortal locks and a very logical favorite?  THAT IS STEALING!  Passed the 8th, missed in the tightest of photos in the ninth and then didn't fire in the tenth.  But wait, I had a bet in Santa Anita's Grade 2 Santa Ynez for 3yo fillies hitting the Kentucky Oaks trail.  Three of the six were Bob Baffert runners.  And while two of them were promising fillies, the other one was was Bast, a three-time Grade 1 winner and third place finisher in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Seemed obvious to me.  On the turn she was three wide chasing her two stablemates and jockey Drayden Van Dyke was working hard to get her going.  But at the furlong pole you could see she kicked into another gear and she simply galloped by as MUCH the best!  My SIXTH win of the day with a profit of more than $65.  It was a VERY good day.

Check out the racing highlights for the week:

New Year's Week Racing Highlights

Christmas / Santa Opening Day

Week of December 25 - 29

On Sunday morning Kim and I set off to Orlando to spend the Christmas holiday with our son Brad, his wife Lauren, and our 3yo grandson Oliver who is just obsessed with Santa....year round.  We got to visit with our daughter Julie and her fiance Brendon; we went to Disney Springs on Christmas Eve to see the themed Christmas trees and visit with Santa; then of course the highlight was Santa coming with all his presents for the little man.

Headed back on Thursday afternoon to Fort Lauderdale after I'd made my selections for the day.....

Thursday December 26
I had handicapped the card prior to our departure and made my bets before we loaded up and drove home.  Missed in the opener and passed the second.  The third was a maiden claiming event for 2yo and I just did not like the odds-on choice.  Mikalah was dropping in class for the fifth consecutive time and top rider Luis Saez was opting off to ride Tuff N Bluff who was my choice.  She was also dropping but just for the third time, and in her last she not only started wide in post 11, but when bidding for the lead she made 2nd and was steadied.  Tuff N Bluff pressed the pace, took over turning for home and then the 2/5 favorite Mikalah came to her.  But Saez would not let her by and I had my first winner of the week.

The fourth was a maiden event on the turf for two-year-olds.  He's Super Lucky had debuted at Saratoga in a MSW then dropped to this $25K level here in September and was a just-miss second.  On Opening Weekend of the Championship Meet he stepped UP to $35K runners and improved position while earning a "paired" Beyer figure.  Luis Saez took over the mount today as he dropped back down.  He was ninth early, and I was concerned, but he began picking off horses and wore down the 25/1 leader in deep stretch to give me my second win, and at a generous 3/1 price.  Cashed for $40 :)

The fifth was my "best" of the day.  Another maiden claiming event, fillies sprinting six and a half furlongs.  Hartling had paired Beyer figures, was dropping out of MSW company to run for a first time tag, AND her last two paired figures were better than anything the rest of the field had ever earned.  Again Luis Saez was up.  Dueled for a half mile with a 6/1 rival and then kicked clear in the final furlong for my third win in a row!

Passed one and missed three picks to bring us to the finale of the Thursday card.  This was a five furlong turf sprint for non-winners of three lifetime.  Jorge Navarro's Xy Speed was dropping in class and coming off a layoff.  This was the first time he'd run for a tag AND in conditioned company.  And Luis Saez was up again.  Three way duel to the turn then put those rivals away to win gamely when the second choice tried to rally by.

Luis Saez had FIVE wins on the card and I finished four-for-eight to begin the week.  I'll take that any day of the week.

Friday December 27
I passed the first three races and in the fourth I was against the heavy favorite.  Ray'swarrior had won as the 1/5 favorite for me two weeks ago on the class drop and he was ultra-fast.  But on that day he was claimed away by a barn that was 0-for-7 first off the claim and just 1-for-22 at the meet.  No thanks.  I liked the second choice Starship Apollo who was 5/2 in the program and was sitting at about 3/1 until GP analysts Ron Nicoletti and Jason Blewitt began talking about his good chances.  The race did NOT unfold as I'd seen it.  I thought Ray'swarrior was clearly the speed of the race and jockey Irad Ortiz would stalk and blow by.  Instead it was Ortiz on 'Apollo who gunned to the front and Ray'swarrior could not keep up.  Wire to wire for my first win of the day.

The sixth was a maiden claiming turf event for two-year-olds going seven and a half furlongs.  Wicked Solution looked much the best on the class drop but I was suspicious.  So I only invested a minimum amount.  Sat back for Irad Ortiz, moved on the turn to challenge and drew off at even money and I was 2-for-2.

Right back in the seventh with Ron Nicoletti's best bet on French Quarter.  He'd last run in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth.  Today he dropped in class into this claiming event and turned back to a one-turn mile.  Got a rider switch to patient Irad Ortiz and best of all had fired a best-of-82 bullet for today.  Sat third behind the lone speed, moved up into the lane and the two favorites dueled for a furlong before French Quarter drew clear for my third win.

Missed on my last two, but still three for five isn't anything to sneeze at.  And ironically after Luis Saez had won five yesterday, today Irad Ortiz won five races.

Saturday December 28:  Opening Day At Santa Anita

When I began handicapping for today I was faced with a dilemma - to go to the races today or not?  On the one hand......it's Gulfstream in the winter and that's the time of the year I look forward to going all year long.  And there were many good races to watch and wager on.  But, on the other hand....the biggest races were from Santa Anita and wouldn't go off until late afternoon and into the evening; and there was college football on beginning at noon; AND the national semi-final bowl games were on at 4 pm and 8 pm; AND there was a Panthers home game.  In the end I decided I'd play at home, watch football and give the Panthers tickets away (because there's a home game right back tomorrow night).  The first bet was a triple investment at Gulfstream and I was the 1/2 favorite, and got run down in deep stretch.  Is THIS the kind of day I'm going to have?  Sigh......But then I went on a five race winning streak!  In Laurel's 2nd Let's Play Nine may have some real ability as he graduated at first asking last time out in a sprint and today handled entry level allowance at a one-turn mile pretty handily.  I also won the opener at the Fair Grounds in a maiden claiming event for 2yo when My Boy Lollipop came firing up the rail to score.

I picked up first two stakes wins of the day - one at Laurel and one at Gulfstream.  The third at Laurel was the Dave's Friend Stakes going six furlongs.  Threefiveindia looked to be a heavy favorite and deservedly so after drilling So Cal sprinters in his last two.  And those two Beyer figures would beat 166 of the 169 combined speed figures earned by the rest of the field.  He was tons the best and paid what I thought was a more than fair $3 to win.

The Gulfstream program featured several turf events and they'd run on the grass on Friday.  But because of overnight rains they took some of them off the turf, including the Janus Stakes at five furlongs.  I had noted in my analysis that Extravagant Kid was Gr 1 stakes placed on the main track in addition to having good turf form (was my second choice on the turf).  He went off as the 6/5 favorite and swooped by to score.

And I topped off the five race streak when New Day Dawning debuted in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream for maiden special two-year-olds and was dominant.  She may have a stakes future, watch for her down the line.

Over the next several races I ran third three times and was off the board in three others before finally getting back in the winner's circle in another stakes event at Laurel.  The Willa On The Move looked like a good spot for Majestic Reason to take advantage of a favorite who looked to be compromised on the front end today.  Sure enough, the 9/5 favorite had to work hard to get and hold the lead through the opening half mile and then faded to third.  Meanwhile Majestic Reason sat back in fifth and rallied up the inside when the leaders drifted off the rail like the parting of the Red Sea, and held off a longshot for the score.

Missed at the Fair Grounds and then won back-to-back stakes.  The fifth at Santa Anita was the first of their five graded events, of which I had picks in four of them.  This was the Grade 2 San Antonio and the defending champ was Gift Box from the John Sadler barn.  DRF analyst Brad Free made him his BEST BET, and when Brad Free says that I pay attention.  He was a former Gr 1 winner and was working great.  He'd won two of three starts at Santa Anita with the lone loss coming in a Gr 1 behind Vino Rosso who won the Breeders' Cup Classic here in November.  Joel Rosario sat patiently off a longshot leader to the far turn, then galloped up under a hand ride and drew off impressively.

Next was the seventh at the Fair Grounds.  Interesting how track managements differ on how they handle turf races.  It was a wet, rainy day in New Orleans but the big stakes were still on the turf, all of them (unlike Gulfstream).  Here was the Pago Hop going a mile and I really liked Zofelle.  As a Euro import she had a decided class edge.  And she was 2-for-2 in the US since arriving.  What impressed me most was in her last she rallied from far back despite slow fractions and won going away.  So when she lagged near the back today I was a bit anxious but knew if she were to win it would be with a big late kick, and the Fair Grounds has a L-O-N-G stretch.  Began picking off horses entering the far turn, swung out some five wide to have clear run and inhaled the leader at the sixteenth pole to edge clear for the win.

Was delighted that Zofelle paid $7.20 with my triple investment yielding a winning return of more than $50!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.  I really liked Bellafina in the Grade 1 La Brea going seven furlongs.  She was a multiple Grade 1 winner and she was 5/4-1-0 at Santa Anita, that lone loss in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in a just miss second behind the odds-on favorite.  She was 3/5 at post time and was clear on the lead into the lane but got run down by a $20 winner in deep stretch.  Glad she wasn't MY best bet.  And then I closed out the day by winning FIVE STRAIGHT!  The first was at Gulfstream, the H. Allen Jerkens originally carded for two miles on the turf.  For some reason when it was take off the turf they reduced the distance to a mile and a quarter.  And all of this played into the hand of my pick, Todd Pletcher's American Tattoo who had been a good third going fourteen furlongs in the Grade 2 Marathon on Breeders' Cup weekend on the main track.  Jose Ortiz put him right on the lead and the odds-on choice wired the field handily.

Next up was The Woodchopper from the Fair Grounds going a mile on the turf.  I can honestly say I had this one because of my handicapping at Monmouth all summer long.  Tracksmith had won the Frisk Me Now Stakes at Monmouth for trainer Joe Sharp in a better-than-it-looked effort as my top choice.  He'd been close in two Gr 3 events since and the drop into a listed event again suited him.  He was also an off-the-pace runner which often is the preferred running style on the FG course.  Didn't care for the wide draw in post 13 but as a closer I figured it wouldn't be a huge problem.  Sure enough, came running late to be up in time at a big 3/1.  Wishing I'd invested more than the minimum on him like I did on Zofelle earlier in the day.

The Grade 1 Malibu for 3yo going seven furlongs at Santa Anita was next.  In it, Omaha Beach was my BEST BET of the Day.  I thought he was the most talented horse on Breeders' Cup weekend, and I really thought then, and now, that it was Mike Smith's misjudged ride that led to him being second in the Gr 1 BC Dirt Mile.  Today he looked ideally drawn on the outside and just was too good for these.  Three runners vied for the early lead and Smith bidded his time in the clear to the turn.  Never asked him to run as he blew by and drew off easily.  That was the easiest $28 I've ever cashed on!

By now the national championships were on and I was only watching races when I was "live."  That came in Santa Anita's tenth, the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile on the turf.  I liked what figured to be the short priced favorite in Mo Forza.  It took this guy six tries to break his maiden, but when he did three back he came right back to beat winners....and not just winners, but he won the Grade 2 Twilight Derby on Breeders' Cup Weekend.  And he followed that up by winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby.  In top form with the best figures and likely to sit the perfect trip he was the pick.  He was shuffled back at the start to ninth and I was anxious.  But Joel Rosario got his feet under him and he advanced on turn while a bit wide.  Began picking off horses into the far turn and got to the front with all the momentum into the lane and scored.

On to the Pegasus World Cup Turf are the plans for this guy.....and I'll BE THERE!  The last bet of the day was in the finale in So Cal, a maiden claimer for juveniles but Include The Tax looked too good to pass up.  He had been third at this level last time out and both the winner and runner up came right back to score.  Joel Rosario guided him outside and then back inside to get the win....my thirteenth win on the day (from 22 selections - nearly 60%!).

I went winless from three picks on Sunday when most races came off the turf at Gulfstream but still finished the week 20-for-39, that's 51.3% for those of you without a calculator,  and a profit of over $65.  And with the close of racing Sunday the first month of racing has finished.  I'm off to an exceptionally good start, winning at nearly 40%!

One last note.....our good friend Sofia from Portugal had not received her Christmas card we sent nearly three weeks ago.  On Friday we hooked up online as it arrived.  She was happy we thought of her and I was happy she got it.