The Calm Before The Storm (Week 7)
This week was just "a week" of racing as this coming Saturday is Sunshine Millions which will probably have the better horses that do NOT race on Pegasus Saturday which is the following week. So this week there were not many quality runners. But there were multiple 3yo races as the sophomores begin to heat up with the spring preps fast approaching. Not a single day offered a "wow" kind of horse, though perhaps Sunday might have but we had plans already for the day. So I spent the week in the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - that would be here at home :)
Wednesday January 8
Wednesday's card for some reason had post time pushed back to 1 pm and only nine races on the program. I never did hear why that was. In the opener I like Todd Pletcher's Days of Spring in a maiden event for 3yo. Bid at 2/1 on the turn then flattened out to finish fourth. The anticipated speed duel did NOT develop in the second, so my stalker ran third. In the fourth I went with Hey Kitten who'd had a very eventful trip last time and got a rider change to Irad Ortiz. A lot of handicappers like Unexplainable to wire the field. That one set the pace and caved on the turn, so my pick was a runaway winner. Two minimum bets in the last two races failed to score so that was it on the first day of the seventh week of the Championship Meet.
Thursday January 9
Wednesday January 8
Wednesday's card for some reason had post time pushed back to 1 pm and only nine races on the program. I never did hear why that was. In the opener I like Todd Pletcher's Days of Spring in a maiden event for 3yo. Bid at 2/1 on the turn then flattened out to finish fourth. The anticipated speed duel did NOT develop in the second, so my stalker ran third. In the fourth I went with Hey Kitten who'd had a very eventful trip last time and got a rider change to Irad Ortiz. A lot of handicappers like Unexplainable to wire the field. That one set the pace and caved on the turn, so my pick was a runaway winner. Two minimum bets in the last two races failed to score so that was it on the first day of the seventh week of the Championship Meet.
Thursday January 9
A weakening fifth in the opener was followed by Todd Pletcher's Uncle Skeets being a best of the rest second in the next race. Uncle Curly ran to his best Beyer figures to win the third - and I watched it on replay. But when I checked the payoff my number was third....DQ'd - wow. Todd Pletcher's Silver Palace was off slowly, sat mid-pack and stopped badly to be last in the fourth. Fading fourth as the 6/5 favorite in my next, followed by Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet setting the pace and getting caught in the lane, second. In the finale trainer Terri Pompay had taught Mrs. Maisel to relax from off the pace in turf sprints, resulting in her maiden win and a best-of-the-rest second vs. better last time out. She flew home to score to salvage the day as the single winner on Thursday.
Friday January 10
Not the best of weeks so far and on today's card I had eight picks. Never-in-it-ninth as the 9/5 favorite in the opener, but bounced back with a win in the second with Freezer Burn. Her two career start Beyers were best in the field but the fact she'd been 2nd and 3rd as the favorite in those made me hesitant to go any deeper than a minimum wager. Stalked the pace setters, took over turning for home and then Tyler Gafflione was all-out to just hang on. But hey, a win's a win!
Passed the third and in the fourth, a high priced ($75K) maiden claimer for 3yo on the turf I liked Todd Pletcher's Make A Stand. First time out he was drawn inside and tried to make up ground through slow fractions. I was hoping the better draw and more reasonable pace would allow Javier Castellano to get the colt home today. Put up close he pressed the leader to mid-way on the backstretch, took over and held the field at bay to the wire. For a Pletcher runner with an excuse last time out he paid a generous $6.60, allowing me to cash for more than $30.
Missed with the "obvious" 4/5 favorite who was never in the race. Then it was time for my BEST BET of the Day. Tiger Blood showed six races that the combined 102 Beyers of his rivals only showed TWO that would be COMPETITIVE with ANY of them. Jockey Edgard Zayas sat just off the leader of the five furlong turf sprint to the turn, moved to challenge and drew off as much, MUCH the best. My THIRD winner of the day.
Passed the seventh and in the eighth it was all about Blue Magic in another turf sprint. She had paired numbers, was dropping out of a Claiming Crown stakes where she ran third in for a first time tag and had hot riding Irad Ortiz up. Sat patiently in fifth, made her move and was driving to the wire getting up JUST in time!
Fifth as the tepid favorite in the ninth and then a dismal 9th and last at 4/5 in the finale closed the day. But, it was a good day with four winners!
Saturday January 11: Marshua's River Day
Two turf graded stakes "highlighted" the program but honestly it seemed to be all about the three year olds through the opening six races. The opener was a 3yo MSW and Mr. Philly Dilly was one of the few with experience and looked tough to beat. But I wasn't going to go against Todd Pletcher's Silver Ration. The former was the short priced favorite with Silver Palace hovering between 2/1 and 3/1 until post time. A ton of late money came in on Pletcher's colt and he was the 3/2 favorite at post time. The two favorites hooked up at the top of the stretch and laid it on the line the length of the stretch before Silver Ratio got up in time! And I was off to a great start! Because this race looked to me to be able to go either way and because the next TWO races looked similar I decided to play both a Daily Double and a Pick Three. Check out how I saw the races.....
What was even more amazing that winning was that after winning the Daily Double and I checked the prices for the Pick 3 I saw they were $20, $60 and $65, which I assumed were for a $2 bet. If my pick in the third won, at 3/5 I'd collect about $5 for the $8 bet, but at least I'd make money with the WIN ticket and I'd had insurance on two others for just three dollars. So my horse was a fast closing second but I won the Pick 3 with the 5/1 shot. Went to check exactly how much my payoff was and was surprised that it WAS the entire $64.60 because the payoffs apparently had been listed for a $0.50 bet, not a $2 bet :) WHOOO HOOOO.
In the fourth Todd Pletcher sent out a $1 Million debut runner, a son of Uncle Mo. Didn't like the rail draw nor that Javier Castellano was up but he just looked ultra talented and was being pounded at the windows, going off at 3/5. While I cannot say positively that it was Castellano's fault, I CAN say that a couple of years ago what happened would never have happened with him on board. Broke slowly - you KNOW if you're on a debut runner on the rail you HAVE to be especially sharp out of the gate - and then he ran up on heels and had to take a hold of Palm Springs and ease back. Considering he finished second was remarkable after that trip. Mark him for next time, especially with a rider switch. Was amazed to again get a $6.60 payoff at Tampa when the clear speed of the race was allowed to float up in price. Cashed for over $30 again. Maybe it wasn't all Castellano because in the sixth Todd Pletcher's Unrighteous broke ninth under Luis Saez and never was in contention. On New Year's Day I'd bet and watched Independence Hall win Aqueduct's Jerome Stakes to kick off his Derby trail. He entered that race off a second start blow out score in the Grade 3 Remsen. This is significant because in Gulfstream's 7th today, a 3yo entry level allowance Ny Traffic was running and THIS colt had finished third in the Parx debut behind Independence Hall. Came back to win, then missed in a Parx stakes before transferring to trainer Saffie Joseph here in So Fla. Making his local debut I liked him a lot more than the other two betting choices. Saez took him right to the front and he was MUCH the best.
The eighth was the co-featured Grade 3 Marshua's River. And I played for a price angle runner in here because of what I liked about the filly AND that I did not like the two favorites that I knew would take a lot of wagering support. Adina de Sur was going to be one of those two favorites and of the twelve running lines she had won two of her last three, but prior to that had lost NINE in a row. And the two wins were in life-and-death photo finishes. AND she was winless at Gulfstream. Did not like her. The other was Sweet Bye and Bye who had traded decisions with Adina Del Sur finishing second to that one's third two back before running third behind 'Del Sur last time out as the 3/2 favorite. And her most recent win was in allowance company. Hardly an endorsement to win this Grade 3. So who DID I like? Trainer Chad Brown who seems to win EVERY graded stakes race on the turf was sending out Magic Star. This filly had broken her maiden at Saratoga at first asking in August. Came back in an allowance race as the even money favorite and while the trouble line did not say so, the running line seemed to indicate there had been some issue mid-race as she'd suddenly dropped back then come on again. So (a) it's Chad Brown, (b) she seems to have talent, (c) she comes here off a "darkened form" kind of effort, but (d) most importantly....with ALL the entry level allowance turf races, WHY would Brown enter the filly in a Gr 3 today when she was still eligible for the entry level condition? Must know something we don't. She was the early betting favorite, but then the crowd's money poured in on the two false favorites. Turning for home jockey Irad Ortiz had to wait for running room and when none appeared he moved five wide and swooped up on the two betting choices. Ran by them and held a late-closing long shot off to get the victory!
So happy that the late money came pouring in because Magic Star paid a very nice $7.20 and I cashed for nearly $40. That was it for the day but with the two multi-race wager wins I finished six for eighteen and made a tidy little profit!
Sunday January 12
Two story lines dominated Sunday's racing. The first was that I did have two winners and the second of them was a Todd Pletcher first time starter, a daughter of Curlin owned by the same couple that raced Magnum Moon a couple of years ago and that guy won the $1 Million Arkansas Derby. Spice Is Nice showed steady works and had John Velazquez up today. Johnny V got her racing position up close in fifth along the rail to the far turn. The leader was not hugging the wood so he moved her through. The real running was about to start when suddenly 'Spice shifted gears and with each stride drew further and further away. The final margin of victory was by a dozen lengths, under wraps. May be our pick for the Gulfstream Park Oaks!
The second story line was Chad Brown's filly Feedback making her comeback today. She had been a "WOW" winner at Saratoga in 2018 and didn't resurface until the Gr 3 Forward Gal where Brown was quoted pre-race as saying she looked like a legitimate Oaks contender. She had to really work hard to win that day, as my BEST BET, but Brown must have noticed she had a lot taken out of her because her next start was in a 7f Gr 2 at Keeneland and she finished third. Not seen since April she was entered in this 2nd level allowance. She just looked MUCH the best on paper, but I had my suspicions. Still when hottie Acacia Courtney said the filly looked like the real deal I felt comfortable. Gates opened and she immediately went to her knees with her nose actually touching the ground. Obviously had little left for the stretch - fifth. The only other winner on the day was one of those "bad bets" but I liked him any way. Hard Count was a FIFTEEN time maiden (15/0-7-3). But with that said, he was dropping in for a tag for the first time today and his two main "rivals" were runners who were 10/0-0-2 and 11/0-1-1. Not formidable competition. AND Hard Count's WORST turf Beyer would require a lifetime best to beat by anyone else. Right to the front and never, ever had to take a deep breath. Smart play, even at a short price.
Next week is Sunshine Millions week, and our grandson comes to visit....then stays with just his grand parents for several days, HORRAY!
Friday January 10
Not the best of weeks so far and on today's card I had eight picks. Never-in-it-ninth as the 9/5 favorite in the opener, but bounced back with a win in the second with Freezer Burn. Her two career start Beyers were best in the field but the fact she'd been 2nd and 3rd as the favorite in those made me hesitant to go any deeper than a minimum wager. Stalked the pace setters, took over turning for home and then Tyler Gafflione was all-out to just hang on. But hey, a win's a win!
Passed the third and in the fourth, a high priced ($75K) maiden claimer for 3yo on the turf I liked Todd Pletcher's Make A Stand. First time out he was drawn inside and tried to make up ground through slow fractions. I was hoping the better draw and more reasonable pace would allow Javier Castellano to get the colt home today. Put up close he pressed the leader to mid-way on the backstretch, took over and held the field at bay to the wire. For a Pletcher runner with an excuse last time out he paid a generous $6.60, allowing me to cash for more than $30.
Missed with the "obvious" 4/5 favorite who was never in the race. Then it was time for my BEST BET of the Day. Tiger Blood showed six races that the combined 102 Beyers of his rivals only showed TWO that would be COMPETITIVE with ANY of them. Jockey Edgard Zayas sat just off the leader of the five furlong turf sprint to the turn, moved to challenge and drew off as much, MUCH the best. My THIRD winner of the day.
Passed the seventh and in the eighth it was all about Blue Magic in another turf sprint. She had paired numbers, was dropping out of a Claiming Crown stakes where she ran third in for a first time tag and had hot riding Irad Ortiz up. Sat patiently in fifth, made her move and was driving to the wire getting up JUST in time!
Fifth as the tepid favorite in the ninth and then a dismal 9th and last at 4/5 in the finale closed the day. But, it was a good day with four winners!
Saturday January 11: Marshua's River Day
Two turf graded stakes "highlighted" the program but honestly it seemed to be all about the three year olds through the opening six races. The opener was a 3yo MSW and Mr. Philly Dilly was one of the few with experience and looked tough to beat. But I wasn't going to go against Todd Pletcher's Silver Ration. The former was the short priced favorite with Silver Palace hovering between 2/1 and 3/1 until post time. A ton of late money came in on Pletcher's colt and he was the 3/2 favorite at post time. The two favorites hooked up at the top of the stretch and laid it on the line the length of the stretch before Silver Ratio got up in time! And I was off to a great start! Because this race looked to me to be able to go either way and because the next TWO races looked similar I decided to play both a Daily Double and a Pick Three. Check out how I saw the races.....
In the fourth Todd Pletcher sent out a $1 Million debut runner, a son of Uncle Mo. Didn't like the rail draw nor that Javier Castellano was up but he just looked ultra talented and was being pounded at the windows, going off at 3/5. While I cannot say positively that it was Castellano's fault, I CAN say that a couple of years ago what happened would never have happened with him on board. Broke slowly - you KNOW if you're on a debut runner on the rail you HAVE to be especially sharp out of the gate - and then he ran up on heels and had to take a hold of Palm Springs and ease back. Considering he finished second was remarkable after that trip. Mark him for next time, especially with a rider switch. Was amazed to again get a $6.60 payoff at Tampa when the clear speed of the race was allowed to float up in price. Cashed for over $30 again. Maybe it wasn't all Castellano because in the sixth Todd Pletcher's Unrighteous broke ninth under Luis Saez and never was in contention. On New Year's Day I'd bet and watched Independence Hall win Aqueduct's Jerome Stakes to kick off his Derby trail. He entered that race off a second start blow out score in the Grade 3 Remsen. This is significant because in Gulfstream's 7th today, a 3yo entry level allowance Ny Traffic was running and THIS colt had finished third in the Parx debut behind Independence Hall. Came back to win, then missed in a Parx stakes before transferring to trainer Saffie Joseph here in So Fla. Making his local debut I liked him a lot more than the other two betting choices. Saez took him right to the front and he was MUCH the best.
The eighth was the co-featured Grade 3 Marshua's River. And I played for a price angle runner in here because of what I liked about the filly AND that I did not like the two favorites that I knew would take a lot of wagering support. Adina de Sur was going to be one of those two favorites and of the twelve running lines she had won two of her last three, but prior to that had lost NINE in a row. And the two wins were in life-and-death photo finishes. AND she was winless at Gulfstream. Did not like her. The other was Sweet Bye and Bye who had traded decisions with Adina Del Sur finishing second to that one's third two back before running third behind 'Del Sur last time out as the 3/2 favorite. And her most recent win was in allowance company. Hardly an endorsement to win this Grade 3. So who DID I like? Trainer Chad Brown who seems to win EVERY graded stakes race on the turf was sending out Magic Star. This filly had broken her maiden at Saratoga at first asking in August. Came back in an allowance race as the even money favorite and while the trouble line did not say so, the running line seemed to indicate there had been some issue mid-race as she'd suddenly dropped back then come on again. So (a) it's Chad Brown, (b) she seems to have talent, (c) she comes here off a "darkened form" kind of effort, but (d) most importantly....with ALL the entry level allowance turf races, WHY would Brown enter the filly in a Gr 3 today when she was still eligible for the entry level condition? Must know something we don't. She was the early betting favorite, but then the crowd's money poured in on the two false favorites. Turning for home jockey Irad Ortiz had to wait for running room and when none appeared he moved five wide and swooped up on the two betting choices. Ran by them and held a late-closing long shot off to get the victory!
So happy that the late money came pouring in because Magic Star paid a very nice $7.20 and I cashed for nearly $40. That was it for the day but with the two multi-race wager wins I finished six for eighteen and made a tidy little profit!
Sunday January 12
Two story lines dominated Sunday's racing. The first was that I did have two winners and the second of them was a Todd Pletcher first time starter, a daughter of Curlin owned by the same couple that raced Magnum Moon a couple of years ago and that guy won the $1 Million Arkansas Derby. Spice Is Nice showed steady works and had John Velazquez up today. Johnny V got her racing position up close in fifth along the rail to the far turn. The leader was not hugging the wood so he moved her through. The real running was about to start when suddenly 'Spice shifted gears and with each stride drew further and further away. The final margin of victory was by a dozen lengths, under wraps. May be our pick for the Gulfstream Park Oaks!
The second story line was Chad Brown's filly Feedback making her comeback today. She had been a "WOW" winner at Saratoga in 2018 and didn't resurface until the Gr 3 Forward Gal where Brown was quoted pre-race as saying she looked like a legitimate Oaks contender. She had to really work hard to win that day, as my BEST BET, but Brown must have noticed she had a lot taken out of her because her next start was in a 7f Gr 2 at Keeneland and she finished third. Not seen since April she was entered in this 2nd level allowance. She just looked MUCH the best on paper, but I had my suspicions. Still when hottie Acacia Courtney said the filly looked like the real deal I felt comfortable. Gates opened and she immediately went to her knees with her nose actually touching the ground. Obviously had little left for the stretch - fifth. The only other winner on the day was one of those "bad bets" but I liked him any way. Hard Count was a FIFTEEN time maiden (15/0-7-3). But with that said, he was dropping in for a tag for the first time today and his two main "rivals" were runners who were 10/0-0-2 and 11/0-1-1. Not formidable competition. AND Hard Count's WORST turf Beyer would require a lifetime best to beat by anyone else. Right to the front and never, ever had to take a deep breath. Smart play, even at a short price.
Next week is Sunshine Millions week, and our grandson comes to visit....then stays with just his grand parents for several days, HORRAY!
Oliver Face-Timing With Grandma & Grandpa on his own iPad
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