Sunday, January 19, 2020

Sunshine Millions Week

January 15 - 20
Sunshine Millions Week

There were multiple highlights this week!  The racing week was bookended by two fairly below average days as on Wednesday despite having seven selections on the day I could only come up with a single winner.  I should have at least two because in the 4th, a maiden claiming sprint on the turf I had the obvious 3-5 favorite.  But Javier Castellano gave one of his more recent "what is he thinking" kind of rides.  The filly was a front runner, but somehow he didn't get to the front.  OK, that happens, but then he found himself between horses and behind dueling leaders.  When I saw him grab the reins I wasn't happy but thought, he's easing outside to give her clear run because she's so much the best.  But once she was not between runners he continued to restrain her until she'd fallen about a half dozen off the lead.  When he finally let her run she bolted outside and he couldn't control her.  WOW.  But the positive highlight of the day was when the highly regarded Premier Star won his second straight in very impressive fashion.  Won't be surprised to see him in two weeks in the Grade 2 Holy Bull on the Florida Derby trail.

Thursday January 16
I knew, looking ahead to the weekend that despite Saturday being a BIG day of the meet I probably would not be out here and if I was it would be a short stay.  Why?  Because our grandson was flying in on Friday and staying through the middle of next week.  And with his Mom & Dad only being here for Friday and Saturday I was reluctant to miss the family time.  So I went out today as I had picks in races 2-5.  I was proud of myself passing the opener when the winner was a $60 upset.  I won the second race when Bundi Bundi went to the front and refused to give in despite becoming very leg-weary through the final 16th of a mile.

And in the third I was a winner again.  I didn't like the first two program choices, and I thought that Saffie Joseph might spring yet another surprise with first off the claim Queen Nekia under Tyler Gafflione.  As they approached the starting gate she dropped a click down to 5/2, which I still thought was a fair price.  But when they rounded the turn onto the backstretch the odds underneath the video feed showed her as the co-even money favorite.  WOW, someone has been reading my analysis and dropped a ton of money on her.  Considering it was only a five horse field I wasn't all that confident when she sat last of five and the pace wasn't torrid.  On the turn Gafflione made his move - as it was a first finish line race.  Swept to collar the leader and edged clear late.....I'm two-for-two!

In the fourth my pick broke slowly and in the fifth I led into the lane but was outfinished, second.  Just two wins on the day, but that's ok, I made money on the bets I made at Gulfstream.  And I got new seats for the Pegasus Cup next weekend (and saved enough to pay for the parking) AND found out some more info about the Florida Derby.

Friday January 17
I know you can make numbers say anything, but today was a HUGE day.  First, our grandson Oliver got his first plane ride.  He'd come to the airport to pick us up last summer when we returned from Alaska and he'd been so excited.  So I suggested to our son Brad that we'd pay to fly them down to give him his first plane ride.  We know he loves being here, but it's a long drive for a 3yo.  And we were so happy when his Mom & Dad agreed he could stay for several extra days with just us.  When they landed and he came running out he was so SO excited and could not stop chattering about his big adventure.

Got home and turned on the races while we all enjoyed being together.  Have to mention that Oliver's big treat for the day was watching Grandpa dive down under water in the cold pool to get his toys.  He loved it - what you won't do for your grandchildren :)  In the opener, a turf sprint for 3yo maiden claimers I knew that Drop A Hint would never be 10/1 as listed in the DRF morning line.  The Into Mischief filly was trained by Todd Pletcher and bred up and down for grass.  I was happy that another filly took more money and was even money allowing me to get 3/2 on my choice.  The top two dueled through the far turn and then Drop A Hint drew off and I cashed for $25 to start the day.

I passed races 2-3-4-and 5 before landing on Rakeez in the sixth.  This was a nine furlong turf test for older maiden specials.  Top turf trainer Chad Brown had two in here and while I'd preferred that Irad Ortiz had stuck with my choice, because Javier Castellano was now on, I just liked Rakeez better because she had an inside post and positional speed.  If you re-read the story of Castellano's ride on Wednesday, this is why he's such a handicapping factor now....he gave Rakeez the perfect ride!  Sat just behind the 5/2 leader, collared him at the top of the lane and edged clear before the late runners, his stablemate most notably could make up enough ground.  AND I got an $11.80 payoff, so I cashed for nearly $65 on my second winner of the day.

Passed the 7th where I didn't like anyone and then came back in the 8th with Chiclet's Dream.  This was a mid-level non-winners of two lifetime and this one had hit the board in NINE of TEN with just a single win.  I made the comment that maybe the "best bet" was to bet her across the board.  But despite the woeful resume I thought she was simply the better horse.  Left the gate at 3/5 and won by daylight....only had the minimum bet on board due to the record, but hey - I'm three for three!

I was really looking forward to the ninth which saw the return of 3yo sensation Hidden Scroll.  He'd caught the national headlines when earning a whopping 104 Beyer in his debut win here on Pegasus Day, we were there.  But he disappointed in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and Gr 1 Florida Derby; then faltered in an allowance on the Kentucky Derby undercard.  If he ran back to his debut promise he'd win for fun.  Unfortunately there was a Todd Pletcher runner in here who had showed talent.  Sniper Shot won his debut here in the summer - so immediately he's downgraded as a "second string" from that powerful stable.  And the 48 Beyer he earned paled in comparison to Hidden Scroll's.  But Sniper Shot came back to be 2nd in a photo to a horse who won a stakes next out and earned a huge 97 Beyer.  So which of the two promising colts would run "their race?"  I went prime time on Hidden Scroll.  But as he loaded into the gate he became fractious and tossed his rider.  After looking him over he was scratched.  Well, that made my bet easier as I then played Pletcher's colt who drew off for fun to close the day....a perfect 4-for-4!


Saturday January 18:  Sunshine Millions Day
Not only was this a big day in So Fla racing, but today was the "Kickoff To The Road To The Derby" day at the Fair Grounds were there were multiple stakes, including two big three-year-old races as the sophomores begin their quest to run in the Gr 2 Fair Ground Oaks and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  I played Gulfstream, the Fair Grounds, and just a few races from Santa Anita.  I had handicapped the Gulfstream card early to gauge if I wanted to spend any time at the track.  When I had mixed feelings I decided I did not want to have a full slate of races because I'd be home with the grandson and his parents.  I was 11/1 in the opener and as they hit the top of the stretch for just a moment I thought MAYBE....no, faded to 11th.  In the second, a non-winners of two lifetime all of the runners looked pretty average.  But Beast Mode was shipping in from Hawthorne and had yet to run a bad race.  AND he was dropping from $20K to this $8K spot with Luis Saez up.  Sat in a stalking spot fourth to the far turn, took the lead and looked to be home free.  But Saez seemed to be surprised when the 7/5 second choice flew from the back, collared him and headed him in the lane.  But Saez got busy and Beast Mode re-broke and drew clear late.

After missing in the fourth at Gulfstream the stakes action kicked off at the Fair Grounds.  I thought that Bobby's Wicked One was the clear speed of the race and was likely to wire the field as he'd done on Opening Day here in the Thanksgiving Handicap.  But, I was only going to triple the bet because I thought he'd be a short price and if someone ran with him there was a Gr 1 winner in the field.  As I logged into the FG race program I saw that four runners had scratched so now there were only three horses in the race and Bobby's Wicked One was 1-9.  I considered upping the bet from $15 to WIN to $20, but if he won I'd get back A DOLLAR for betting five more.  I was content with the play.  He floated up to 1/5 and close to 2/5 which considering he was the ONLY speed I thought was giving money away.  I mean all the rider had to do was not fall off.  Right to the front, quickly clear by three he galloped in a swift time of 1:08.2 after a swift half mile of :44 and change.

Missed in two maiden events and an entry level allowance before Gulfstream's 7th provided my next winning bet.  Bad Little Beast was 10/1 in the program but I thought he had a legitimate upset chance.  Well so did the crowd as he was bet down to 2/1.  Jockey Irad Ortiz sat patiently in sixth well off the dueling leaders - the favorite and the third choice.  Then on the turn 'Beast began picking off horses and eventually collared the top two at the furlong marker, then edged clear late to score and I was collecting over $35.

Missed in another FG allowance before the Sunshine Million Stakes races began at Gulfstream.  And the first of those was my BET of the Day in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf.  On paper Starship Jubilee just towered over her rivals.  She had won this race the last two years and had won a Grade 1 race at Woodbine this summer.  Now in restricted company she looked as good as it gets.  But I had two reservations....first, in both of the last two years I'd had her on SSM Day, but she'd disappointed in the prep for today.  Obviously the plan is to get one in her to acclimate her, then she wins.  Well today was her first start of the winter.  Hmmmm.  And secondly, Javier Castellano was on board.  How would he ride her?  She liked to be forwardly placed but could come from off the pace.  Would he be smart enough to NOT duel or NOT get caught off the pace without room to run or fast fractions to close into?  But in the end what made her my BEST BET was the fact that of the combined 146 races run by her rivals today, NONE of those had earned Beyer figures good enough to to Starship Jubilee's LAST SEVEN figures.  AND she was 8-for-15 locally.  Right to the front she was in hand.  When the opening fraction was :25 and change I was nearly certain the race was over.  Then when the opening half mile was :50 and change I KNEW I was the winner, just a question of by how much.  Easy....

I'd upped the bet from a "prime time" $20 WIN to thirty to win before the race and cashed for over $40 and had the satisfaction of knowing my BEST was indeed BEST today.

Missed when my pick in the SSM Sprint was second best but I got my second Millions winner in the Turf.  Trainer Mark Casse had three in the race and any could win but I liked March To The Arch.  The downside was he'd only won twice since September 2018, but nine of his last ten starts, and his last six had come against graded company.  AND in only two of those, both over off going, was he beaten more than five lengths.  The class of the race.  Jockey Tyler Gafflione sat back until beginning his run on the far turn.  Gathered momentum and was flying while wide through the lane.  OH SO CLOSE, PHOTO FINISH.  But I was pretty sure I was the winner, and I WAS!

Paid a generous $7.40 so I cashed again for nearly $40.  At Santa Anita it was Sunshine Millions / California Cup Day and of all the stakes events I only liked one of them, the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint.  Here Just Grazed me figured to be odds-on and a winner.  She was working on a three-race winning streak, including a last out win in the OPEN Grade 3 Ken Maddy on this course at this distance.  She was Brad Free's BEST BET and of the combined 101 races only ONE race would be competitive with the last two numbers earned by Just Grazed Me.  I thought she was TOO patiently ridden and once she started running the front-runner had been left alone too long and she was second.  At the Fair Grounds I liked Quebec in the Marie Krantz Memorial Stakes.  Going back to November 2018 if you filter out all but her turf routes you're left with Beyers of 87-92 in every start except a Grade 2 try.  Those would win by daylight.  Right to the front, extended the lead into the long Fair Grounds stretch but was all out to hold on, but hold on she did!

The Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes was next in New Orleans and Silver Dust looked to be an easy winner.  My analysis was only three sentences long with the key being that of the combined 101 starts by his rivals only one race competed with his last three Beyers.  Confidently handled in third to the far turn the rider glided up on the far turn, opened up and won going away, geared down.

After missing in the Colonel Bradley on the turf it was time for the two big 3yo races.  In the filly race, the Silverbulletday Stakes Steve Asmussen was searching for his career 1000th stakes win with Finite who was working on a two-race graded stakes winning streak - both at Churchill Downs.  Her Beyers in her last two figured to make her odds-on and she was.  Cruised to the leaders as they spun out of the turn but right away I knew there was trouble.  Because instead of lengthening stride and pulling away she was in a dogfight with not one filly but two, and she was in the uncomfortable spot of being between horses.  But she was courageous and inside the final fifty yards she edged clear as my Fair Grounds BEST BET!

Missed in the Grade 3 Lecomte for the colts when I was second, but for the day I'd won eight times and had a very good day!

Sunday January 19
I passed the first two races and my pick scratched out of the third.  In the fourth, a MSW for 3yo on the turf I ran third.  Then came the highlight of the day in the fifth.  It was a nw3x claiming event going a one-turn mile and here are the past performances for the rail runner, Chase Runner:

And here's my analysis:

You can see how I've highlighted the pp's to reflect my thoughts.  Jockey Edgard Zayas took Chase Runner right to the front.  As they moved through the turn I was thinking, I have a real chance here.  And as they turned for home he had a daylight lead.  But inside the final furlong the field was closing in but Zayas would not give up and pushed his mount to fight and he held on to the wire.  Check out the nice price....

Oh yes, cashed for nearly $65 sealing another winning day!  Another scratch and a pass led to the final win of the weekend with Todd Pletcher's Largent.  Pletcher had two in here and while both could win I thought it was significant that Largent had broken his maiden here then just missed on the Preakness undercard when second by a neck.  But what was key was the winner of that race came right back to win a Grade 3 at Delaware.  The pace was quick, but Largent pressed the leader while well clear of the rest of the field.  On the turn he took over at will and opened up to draw off by nearly half a dozen while geared down.  Watch for this one in a stakes next month!

For the three-day weekend I'd cashed on over 40% of my selections and made a flat-bet profit of over $100 - whooo hoooo.  Check out the highlights of the weekend's racing, and a special video of Oliver on his first plane ride!

Sunshine Millions Weekend Highlights


Monday January 20
Like Wednesday's racing I had several picks and several horses I REALLY thought would win, but my only winner came with the smallest bet of the day.  Took a little of the luster off the week, but I'll just remember the weekend's racing :)

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