Happy New Year!
Wednesday January 1
Unlike last week where there was no racing on the holiday, we were "LIVE" today from Gulfstream. I had six selections originally but my pick in the opener scratched. After missing with the first four (did run 2nd and 3rd in two of the four) I finally got on the board for the week in Race 8. I am always reluctant to back a deep closer, especially on a speed favoring track like Gulfstream. But on Claiming Crown Day I'd backed Fast Pass and he came from dead last at the top of the stretch and some eight wide to lose by the smallest of noses in the Express Stakes. There seemed to be enough speed to set him up today and to be fair he'd broken slowly last time. A clean break and the drop in class should get him home. Knowing all this STILL when he was dead last mid-way on the turn I had my doubts. But when he hit high gear he just blew by the field and won going away, and geared down. Impressive.
I had wanted to play the feature from Aqueduct today also. Independence Hall had created some buzz after winning his maiden debut, he'd blown open the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in his 2yo finale by more than a dozen widening lengths. I watched the replay and read the articles about the prohibitive 1/5 favorite for today's Jerome Stakes and it just looked like a "free bingo square" and a chance to see a legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect. He broke slowly, but jockey Jose Ortiz guided him into the clear in the three path, and when asked he ran away as much the best. He was a "BET of the Day" investment and while I didn't make a lot of money, it's like I've said many times.....I get a big rush from putting significant money on a runner I have a lot of confidence in, and he delivers.
Thursday January 2
Today I was honestly surprised with the results from the six picks I had at Gulfstream. I had only a single winner, a second and four off the board finishes. And it wasn't like I was picking longshots. The second came on a 6/5 runner, the other misses came at 3/5, 2/1 and twice at 5/2. But I did get Blameless home in the fifth, a maiden special for older on the turf. He showed improved Beyer figures with each and every start and had run a career best off a layoff last time out. Helped that two of the logicals were trained by Mark Casse who's barn was off to a 1-for-21 start. Got to the front, cleared and then held on late for the win as the favorite.
Friday January 3: Happy Anniversary
Kim and I celebrated our 33rd wedding anniversary today. Neither of us would have believed you if you'd told us on that snowy Saturday afternoon in Erie that in the next thirty years and change we'd travel the world, sailing from Budapest to Amsterdam on the major rivers of Europe; visit Vietnam, climb to the top of the ancient Cambodian temples at Angkor Watt, climb the Great Wall of China, visit France, cruise the Mediterranean - including going to the Roman Colosseum and being serenaded under the stars while on a gondola on the canals of Venice - AND go to Alaska five times. We have had one very, very happy marriage my friends. On today's selection sheet I had seven selections. Passed the opening two races and was disappointed to miss again on the first two selections of the day, especially in the fourth when I was 3/5 and it was a three horse field! In Race 5 Hurricane Breeze looked like the best in a maiden claiming event on the turf. She had run turf numbers that should win and her running style looked to put her in a good tracking spot under Tyler Gafflione. Made her moving swinging out of the stretch to get clear and then drove to the wire while holding off the deep closers.....finally a winner :)
In the very next race it was my "best" bet of the day. A maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile, and here it was a question of knowing your trainers. Jorge Navarro had claimed Korczak out of a $20K sprint at Churchill Downs last time and today he had him in for $12.5K. Normally the drop off a claim is a red flag, but Navarro does this routinely. In addition jockey Luis Saez, a regular pilot for the barn was on board. Finally he HAD won at about this level, facing$15K rivals two back and of the forty-five numbers posted by his rivals, Korczak's last two would beat 43 of them. He was pounded to odds-on and wired the field like a short priced favorite should. Two in a row!
I had mixed feelings about Rising Bella in the seventh. On the one hand her figures said yes and she had been a just-miss second vs. $50K starter company, dropping to $35K today. But her 1-for-7 mark made me uneasy. Fourth spinning out of the turn she kicked into high gear and won going away and I had my third winner in a row.
A non-threatening fifth at 7/2 in the eighth; passed the ninth and had my final play of the day in the finale. A maiden claimer for 3yo going a mile on the turf. Gaby's Dream didn't have great form, but compared to the rest of the field it was hard to look past the human connections of owner Frank Calabrese, trainer Saffie Joseph, and jockey Paco Lopez. Perfect trip third, saving ground on the rail she swung out at the top of the stretch. And while she didn't blow by despite the drop in class, she edged clear inside the final 100 yards and I had my FOURTH winner of the day. It truly was a very good anniversary!
Saturday January 4: Sophomore Stakes Day
Up until Thursday the forecast for today had been rain and thunderstorms as a cold front was supposed to sweep through town and drop our temperatures considerably. They revised it to a mix of sun and rain by Thursday night and so on Friday morning I handicapped the Gulfstream card and had picks for both turf and dirt in every race schedule for the grass. But by Friday afternoon the forecast changed to be sunny and hot for Saturday with the front now due to sweep through sometime between 6 pm and 9 pm. Ironically as I drove home at about 6 pm the rain started. It was a gorgeous South Florida Saturday to be at the races! It was also interesting that typically I have many bets at Gulfstream so I usually only handicap a couple other tracks. But today there really weren't any big races anywhere else. Under normal circumstances I'd have basically just played Gulfstream but for some reason I decided to handicap six tracks and even told Kim that I was more "open" to making picks today rather than looking for "solid" bets. A good thing I analyzed the day's races that way because while I had ten winners, ONLY TWO were at Gulfstream Park! I had picks in nearly all the Gulfstream races but my pick in the turf opener scratched out. Considered playing my second choice, but all three of the GP analysts did not put him on top. Decided I had enough picks and watched. He won - should have been DQ'd but somehow the result stood. Missed at Laurel and in Gulfstream's second before getting my first winner, at Tampa. Singanothersong was a SIXTEEN time winner and was looking to extend his current winning streak. Won as the favorite.
I missed on multiple selections over the next hour before finally getting my second winner, again at Tampa. Here I was torn. On the one hand, Ikeisgreat was the morning line favorite and had a best of one-hundred bullet.....love those kind of works. But on the other hand trainer Jorge Navarro, based at Gulfstream, had sent Conquest Day to Tampa for his debut. He'd worked regularly and Navarro has good debut numbers. In the end the 216 wins by the Navarro barn trumped the 19 by the other. The two of them were head and head at the top of the stretch but it was the first time starter that pulled clear to win decisively and paid a sweet $6.00 so I cashed for $30 :)
It was another 45 minutes until I cashed again and that included watching 1/5 favorite Make Me Smile cave at Laurel. The third at the Fair Grounds was a claiming event that had conditions calling for runners who'd started for $5K or less, or running for a $10K claiming tag. The ONLY runner in the field who'd never faced nickle claimers was Bold Rey. Somehow the crowd let him get away at almost 3/1 and I cashed for almost $40. At least when I'm winning I'm cashing some decent tickets!
The sixth at Gulfstream was the first of five three-year-old stakes, this one being the Limehouse going six furlongs. Shivaree had wired the Buffalo Man a month ago while dueling from gate to wire, and it was logical to believe he'd "bounce" today. But he'd worked twice so I doubted that. But what DID worry me was he had the rail and there were at least four other speed types. I wrote in my analysis that we'd know by the time they'd completed the opening quarter if he was going to have a legitimate chance. Well I was dead wrong about that. He broke a step slowly and jockey Emisael Jaramillo was content to let the other four duke it out up front. They went a wicked :21 and change and :44 and change for the half mile. Turning for home Shivaree was third and bidding up on the outside of the 17/1 longshot leader who'd emerged on top. Inside the final furlong he got to the front and then cleared off. AND....because he was being heavily bet both to win and in the multi-race wagers I upped my bet! WHOOO HOOOO!
Missed at Aqueduct before in the third at Santa Anita I liked Phast Pharoah. Just the kind of horse I'd typically avoid on a Saturday, but today, the fact that he was a son of hot freshman sire American Pharoah - who'd been throwing some turf winners - and the fact that he'd run good numbers in five previous starts AND got Joel Rosario today, all added up to him being the bet. And he was clearly best through the lane.
I was third in the Gr 3 Kitten's Joy at Gulfstream with Todd Pletcher's Summer To Remember. Anyone else moving a runner from a maiden win to a Gr 3 and I'd dismissed them. But here, I wasn't about to let him beat me at a fair price. Was second at Tampa after leading all the way to deep stretch. Then finally got a win at Laurel. Bye Bye Bertie fit the profile for an entry level allowance, which are hard to figure. Lightly raced with good numbers. But the problem was (a) she was exiting a MSW victory and (b) that had been in August.....of 2018! Yet hot riding Trevor McCarthy was lured on board and the line maker made her the favorite. And she ran to her odds, scoring as the 8/5 favorite.
Missed at Laurel and then in the biggest stunner of the day, Pauseforthecause was third as the odds-on choice in Aqueduct's La Verdad. To be fair, as had been the case with M-A-N-Y of my horses today, the front runner missed the break and that's nearly always fatal for a front runner. Missed on four more after that big disappointment until I closed the day by winning three of the last four races I saw live. The first winner came in Santa Anita's featured three-year-old race, the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. I am convinced I won this one because I follow and study racing. Bob Baffert had two colts in here who had both won their debut. One had won going five and a half furlongs and the other going a mile and a sixteenth....the Sham was a two-turn mile event. But, earlier this week I read an article about this race and in it the author pointed out that historically Baffert seems to run the colts he really believes has talent in a sprint before stretching them out - two recent cases in point were Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. And the latter had won at 5 1/2 furlongs then won at a mile and a sixteenth in an allowance before taking the Santa Anita Derby and the Triple Crown. So that pointed out Authentic, who according to the article, Baffert seemed to indicate had a world of talent. He was my pick. And he was the crowd's pick. No surprise, especially from the rail that he went to the front, but on the far turn I thought, "Now we'll find out just how good this guy is." And wow was he ever impressive. Even when getting spooked at the furlong pole by the crowd and then nearly hitting the rail, which freaked him out again, he STILL won by a pole under wraps. This colt is G-O-O-D.
And it was not only a cash-the-ticket victory, but a moral victory when I scored at the Fair Grounds in an entry level allowance - again, I attribute it to my following of racing. Trainer Dallas Stewart is a good trainer and has won some big stakes. But what he is most "known" for, at least to me is that he very often has runners hit the board at BIG odds. And then they don't win when dropped into races you'd think they'd win based on their in-the-money finish in graded stakes. Such was the case with Chess Chief who I was sure would be a short priced favorite. After his maiden win he'd been in six stakes, five graded and just seemed to fit that profile. Especially since he had lost twice in this entry level allowance condition. Conversely Aurelius Maximus had moved into the Steve Asmussen barn before his last start. This guy had been third at Saratoga in his debut then walked with his maiden win. He then was fourth in his first try against winners in the Grade 1 Champagne where the three in front of him all became multiple graded stakes winners. Off from that October 2018 event until last November he'd run fourth, and the show colt had since come back to win. Second off the shelf and the subtle drop from NYRA to FG company made him the pick. The heavily favored Chess Chief came to him at the top of the lane then flattened out - I KNEW IT! 'Aurelius paid $6.20 and I had a ticket worth more than $30!
The final live win came when Scarlett Heat blew by the field in a Santa Anita MSW turf event to give me my tenth win on the day. It was a "good" day but I'd missed at Gulfstream and had several horses that looked like "clear" winners (with triple investments) that lost. Still can't ever go wrong being at Gulfstream this time of the year.
Sunday January 5: THE BIG DAY
When I handicapped the card for Sunday and published it on my web page I told Kim, "On Sunday, I'm going to win several races." When she asked why I said I "knew" of two horses that WOULD win and was so confident that I was considering driving back down to Hallandale Beach to see these races live. But in the end I decided not to. One, the day Saturday had taken a lot out of me for some reason and I just didn't want to drive there and back for just a couple races, even with the weather being cool. But largely the Florida Panthers had a late afternoon game that I wanted to watch. I also thought that while the races were playing online I could work on several other projects I have going. So I stayed home and watched online. In the opener I like R Boy Evans who was being raised in class by Georgina Baxter after a good debut at GPW over their turf course. But both those factors were shaky so I watched....he won. The second was a maiden claiming sprint and I have a "rule" that with maidens, once you've lost six times I won't play you. BUT.....the rule in handicapping is "There Are No Rules!" So despite being an EIGHT-time maiden, Company Store was my pick. First, I liked that he was trained by Saffie Joseph and ridden by Tyler Gafflione; they'd won several races on Saturday. Second, he had four second place finishes but in ALL of those he had duel on the lead and today he looked like the LONE SPEED. Nothing beats "Lone Speed," even the axiom that "A quitter, is a quitter, is a quitter." Right to the front, clear to the eighth pole. Began to tire and shorten stride but no one was good enough to catch him....WINNER!
I wasn't surprised when my price play didn't win the third, but everyone seemed to be all over first time starter Anima d'Or in the fourth. Slow start, showed nothing. Next up was the fifth and everyone who was following the races at Gulfstream knew that Andi's Kitten would be a miniscule price and SHOULD be the easiest of winners. So much so that GP analyst Jason Blewitt pointed out that today's Rainbow Pick Six was essentially a Pick-5. But as Ron Nicoletti responded, he SHOULD win, but as we often say, you have to actually run the race. Andi's Kitten was being sent out in the colors of Ken & Sarah Ramsey by trainer Danny Gargan with Tyler Gafflione up. All four of her Beyers would win comfortably here, and even her career low debut number would be challenged by one number on the page, two lengths slower that had been earned by a 10x maiden last spring who'd never run that fast or close to it since. The comment about the Pick-6 struck a cord with me because in the next race I had a pick, and in the following race I had a "Prime Time" play that I was nearly as certain would win. So I looked up who everybody liked in the middle leg - four horses were the consensus and one was scratched. So I decided to play the Pick-3, I NEVER do that. I singled Andi's Kitten on the front end, put three in the mix for the second leg, and singled in the final leg. You could bet for a $1 but if I bet $5 it would only be $15. I felt pretty confident that I'd get a much better payoff than what the win column would pay for $15 so I did it. Andi's Kitten went right to the front and Tyler G never moved a muscle as she strolled home as the prohibitive favorite.
In the second leg as the field turned for home, my three picks were clear of the field. I'm going to be alive in the Pick-3, I thought. If I'm picking, I'd like to actually win the race and Micah's Girl did just that, pulling away late. One more to go!
In this allowance turf sprint I thought that Pay Any Price was just oh-so-obvious, almost as much as Andi's Kitten had been. I get it that he hadn't run since Memorial Day - when Kim and I went out to the races to watch him go wire to wire in the Crystal River Stakes for his 17th win at Gulfstream. AND he is the world record holder at five furlongs. I understand if you thought maybe he'd have to much pace pressure and the ten month layoff might get him. But if you listened to Nicoletti and Blewitt they extolled how good good he was and that he'd been kicking down the barn doors to run. Even more amped up since he had to scratch out of a stakes a week ago (where I'd had him on top). For me I knew he'd get to the front, the question was would he last. And in the many times I've seen him run, the only time he doesn't win is if he can't get clear early. And he was nearly certain to do that today. In spite of all that he left the gate as the second choice and at 9/5. I was incredulous. Right to the front, through sizzling fractions. But when they turned for home he opened up and while tiring late, he was certain to win. I'd won three in a row, two of them "BIG" bets and had hit the Pick 3!
Note the payoff for the Pick-3. When I first saw it and saw $4.65 I thought, well for a $2 bet with two "mortal locks" doubling my money is pretty good. Then I noted that was for a $.50 bet. I was getting TEN TIMES that back - $46.50. Oh my, nearly 3/1 odds on two mortal locks and a very logical favorite? THAT IS STEALING! Passed the 8th, missed in the tightest of photos in the ninth and then didn't fire in the tenth. But wait, I had a bet in Santa Anita's Grade 2 Santa Ynez for 3yo fillies hitting the Kentucky Oaks trail. Three of the six were Bob Baffert runners. And while two of them were promising fillies, the other one was was Bast, a three-time Grade 1 winner and third place finisher in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Seemed obvious to me. On the turn she was three wide chasing her two stablemates and jockey Drayden Van Dyke was working hard to get her going. But at the furlong pole you could see she kicked into another gear and she simply galloped by as MUCH the best! My SIXTH win of the day with a profit of more than $65. It was a VERY good day.
Check out the racing highlights for the week:
In the very next race it was my "best" bet of the day. A maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile, and here it was a question of knowing your trainers. Jorge Navarro had claimed Korczak out of a $20K sprint at Churchill Downs last time and today he had him in for $12.5K. Normally the drop off a claim is a red flag, but Navarro does this routinely. In addition jockey Luis Saez, a regular pilot for the barn was on board. Finally he HAD won at about this level, facing$15K rivals two back and of the forty-five numbers posted by his rivals, Korczak's last two would beat 43 of them. He was pounded to odds-on and wired the field like a short priced favorite should. Two in a row!
I had mixed feelings about Rising Bella in the seventh. On the one hand her figures said yes and she had been a just-miss second vs. $50K starter company, dropping to $35K today. But her 1-for-7 mark made me uneasy. Fourth spinning out of the turn she kicked into high gear and won going away and I had my third winner in a row.
A non-threatening fifth at 7/2 in the eighth; passed the ninth and had my final play of the day in the finale. A maiden claimer for 3yo going a mile on the turf. Gaby's Dream didn't have great form, but compared to the rest of the field it was hard to look past the human connections of owner Frank Calabrese, trainer Saffie Joseph, and jockey Paco Lopez. Perfect trip third, saving ground on the rail she swung out at the top of the stretch. And while she didn't blow by despite the drop in class, she edged clear inside the final 100 yards and I had my FOURTH winner of the day. It truly was a very good anniversary!
Saturday January 4: Sophomore Stakes Day
Up until Thursday the forecast for today had been rain and thunderstorms as a cold front was supposed to sweep through town and drop our temperatures considerably. They revised it to a mix of sun and rain by Thursday night and so on Friday morning I handicapped the Gulfstream card and had picks for both turf and dirt in every race schedule for the grass. But by Friday afternoon the forecast changed to be sunny and hot for Saturday with the front now due to sweep through sometime between 6 pm and 9 pm. Ironically as I drove home at about 6 pm the rain started. It was a gorgeous South Florida Saturday to be at the races! It was also interesting that typically I have many bets at Gulfstream so I usually only handicap a couple other tracks. But today there really weren't any big races anywhere else. Under normal circumstances I'd have basically just played Gulfstream but for some reason I decided to handicap six tracks and even told Kim that I was more "open" to making picks today rather than looking for "solid" bets. A good thing I analyzed the day's races that way because while I had ten winners, ONLY TWO were at Gulfstream Park! I had picks in nearly all the Gulfstream races but my pick in the turf opener scratched out. Considered playing my second choice, but all three of the GP analysts did not put him on top. Decided I had enough picks and watched. He won - should have been DQ'd but somehow the result stood. Missed at Laurel and in Gulfstream's second before getting my first winner, at Tampa. Singanothersong was a SIXTEEN time winner and was looking to extend his current winning streak. Won as the favorite.
I missed on multiple selections over the next hour before finally getting my second winner, again at Tampa. Here I was torn. On the one hand, Ikeisgreat was the morning line favorite and had a best of one-hundred bullet.....love those kind of works. But on the other hand trainer Jorge Navarro, based at Gulfstream, had sent Conquest Day to Tampa for his debut. He'd worked regularly and Navarro has good debut numbers. In the end the 216 wins by the Navarro barn trumped the 19 by the other. The two of them were head and head at the top of the stretch but it was the first time starter that pulled clear to win decisively and paid a sweet $6.00 so I cashed for $30 :)
It was another 45 minutes until I cashed again and that included watching 1/5 favorite Make Me Smile cave at Laurel. The third at the Fair Grounds was a claiming event that had conditions calling for runners who'd started for $5K or less, or running for a $10K claiming tag. The ONLY runner in the field who'd never faced nickle claimers was Bold Rey. Somehow the crowd let him get away at almost 3/1 and I cashed for almost $40. At least when I'm winning I'm cashing some decent tickets!
The sixth at Gulfstream was the first of five three-year-old stakes, this one being the Limehouse going six furlongs. Shivaree had wired the Buffalo Man a month ago while dueling from gate to wire, and it was logical to believe he'd "bounce" today. But he'd worked twice so I doubted that. But what DID worry me was he had the rail and there were at least four other speed types. I wrote in my analysis that we'd know by the time they'd completed the opening quarter if he was going to have a legitimate chance. Well I was dead wrong about that. He broke a step slowly and jockey Emisael Jaramillo was content to let the other four duke it out up front. They went a wicked :21 and change and :44 and change for the half mile. Turning for home Shivaree was third and bidding up on the outside of the 17/1 longshot leader who'd emerged on top. Inside the final furlong he got to the front and then cleared off. AND....because he was being heavily bet both to win and in the multi-race wagers I upped my bet! WHOOO HOOOO!
Missed at Aqueduct before in the third at Santa Anita I liked Phast Pharoah. Just the kind of horse I'd typically avoid on a Saturday, but today, the fact that he was a son of hot freshman sire American Pharoah - who'd been throwing some turf winners - and the fact that he'd run good numbers in five previous starts AND got Joel Rosario today, all added up to him being the bet. And he was clearly best through the lane.
I was third in the Gr 3 Kitten's Joy at Gulfstream with Todd Pletcher's Summer To Remember. Anyone else moving a runner from a maiden win to a Gr 3 and I'd dismissed them. But here, I wasn't about to let him beat me at a fair price. Was second at Tampa after leading all the way to deep stretch. Then finally got a win at Laurel. Bye Bye Bertie fit the profile for an entry level allowance, which are hard to figure. Lightly raced with good numbers. But the problem was (a) she was exiting a MSW victory and (b) that had been in August.....of 2018! Yet hot riding Trevor McCarthy was lured on board and the line maker made her the favorite. And she ran to her odds, scoring as the 8/5 favorite.
Missed at Laurel and then in the biggest stunner of the day, Pauseforthecause was third as the odds-on choice in Aqueduct's La Verdad. To be fair, as had been the case with M-A-N-Y of my horses today, the front runner missed the break and that's nearly always fatal for a front runner. Missed on four more after that big disappointment until I closed the day by winning three of the last four races I saw live. The first winner came in Santa Anita's featured three-year-old race, the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. I am convinced I won this one because I follow and study racing. Bob Baffert had two colts in here who had both won their debut. One had won going five and a half furlongs and the other going a mile and a sixteenth....the Sham was a two-turn mile event. But, earlier this week I read an article about this race and in it the author pointed out that historically Baffert seems to run the colts he really believes has talent in a sprint before stretching them out - two recent cases in point were Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. And the latter had won at 5 1/2 furlongs then won at a mile and a sixteenth in an allowance before taking the Santa Anita Derby and the Triple Crown. So that pointed out Authentic, who according to the article, Baffert seemed to indicate had a world of talent. He was my pick. And he was the crowd's pick. No surprise, especially from the rail that he went to the front, but on the far turn I thought, "Now we'll find out just how good this guy is." And wow was he ever impressive. Even when getting spooked at the furlong pole by the crowd and then nearly hitting the rail, which freaked him out again, he STILL won by a pole under wraps. This colt is G-O-O-D.
The final live win came when Scarlett Heat blew by the field in a Santa Anita MSW turf event to give me my tenth win on the day. It was a "good" day but I'd missed at Gulfstream and had several horses that looked like "clear" winners (with triple investments) that lost. Still can't ever go wrong being at Gulfstream this time of the year.
When I handicapped the card for Sunday and published it on my web page I told Kim, "On Sunday, I'm going to win several races." When she asked why I said I "knew" of two horses that WOULD win and was so confident that I was considering driving back down to Hallandale Beach to see these races live. But in the end I decided not to. One, the day Saturday had taken a lot out of me for some reason and I just didn't want to drive there and back for just a couple races, even with the weather being cool. But largely the Florida Panthers had a late afternoon game that I wanted to watch. I also thought that while the races were playing online I could work on several other projects I have going. So I stayed home and watched online. In the opener I like R Boy Evans who was being raised in class by Georgina Baxter after a good debut at GPW over their turf course. But both those factors were shaky so I watched....he won. The second was a maiden claiming sprint and I have a "rule" that with maidens, once you've lost six times I won't play you. BUT.....the rule in handicapping is "There Are No Rules!" So despite being an EIGHT-time maiden, Company Store was my pick. First, I liked that he was trained by Saffie Joseph and ridden by Tyler Gafflione; they'd won several races on Saturday. Second, he had four second place finishes but in ALL of those he had duel on the lead and today he looked like the LONE SPEED. Nothing beats "Lone Speed," even the axiom that "A quitter, is a quitter, is a quitter." Right to the front, clear to the eighth pole. Began to tire and shorten stride but no one was good enough to catch him....WINNER!
I wasn't surprised when my price play didn't win the third, but everyone seemed to be all over first time starter Anima d'Or in the fourth. Slow start, showed nothing. Next up was the fifth and everyone who was following the races at Gulfstream knew that Andi's Kitten would be a miniscule price and SHOULD be the easiest of winners. So much so that GP analyst Jason Blewitt pointed out that today's Rainbow Pick Six was essentially a Pick-5. But as Ron Nicoletti responded, he SHOULD win, but as we often say, you have to actually run the race. Andi's Kitten was being sent out in the colors of Ken & Sarah Ramsey by trainer Danny Gargan with Tyler Gafflione up. All four of her Beyers would win comfortably here, and even her career low debut number would be challenged by one number on the page, two lengths slower that had been earned by a 10x maiden last spring who'd never run that fast or close to it since. The comment about the Pick-6 struck a cord with me because in the next race I had a pick, and in the following race I had a "Prime Time" play that I was nearly as certain would win. So I looked up who everybody liked in the middle leg - four horses were the consensus and one was scratched. So I decided to play the Pick-3, I NEVER do that. I singled Andi's Kitten on the front end, put three in the mix for the second leg, and singled in the final leg. You could bet for a $1 but if I bet $5 it would only be $15. I felt pretty confident that I'd get a much better payoff than what the win column would pay for $15 so I did it. Andi's Kitten went right to the front and Tyler G never moved a muscle as she strolled home as the prohibitive favorite.
In the second leg as the field turned for home, my three picks were clear of the field. I'm going to be alive in the Pick-3, I thought. If I'm picking, I'd like to actually win the race and Micah's Girl did just that, pulling away late. One more to go!
In this allowance turf sprint I thought that Pay Any Price was just oh-so-obvious, almost as much as Andi's Kitten had been. I get it that he hadn't run since Memorial Day - when Kim and I went out to the races to watch him go wire to wire in the Crystal River Stakes for his 17th win at Gulfstream. AND he is the world record holder at five furlongs. I understand if you thought maybe he'd have to much pace pressure and the ten month layoff might get him. But if you listened to Nicoletti and Blewitt they extolled how good good he was and that he'd been kicking down the barn doors to run. Even more amped up since he had to scratch out of a stakes a week ago (where I'd had him on top). For me I knew he'd get to the front, the question was would he last. And in the many times I've seen him run, the only time he doesn't win is if he can't get clear early. And he was nearly certain to do that today. In spite of all that he left the gate as the second choice and at 9/5. I was incredulous. Right to the front, through sizzling fractions. But when they turned for home he opened up and while tiring late, he was certain to win. I'd won three in a row, two of them "BIG" bets and had hit the Pick 3!
Check out the racing highlights for the week:
New Year's Week Racing Highlights
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