Week of December 25 - 29
On Sunday morning Kim and I set off to Orlando to spend the Christmas holiday with our son Brad, his wife Lauren, and our 3yo grandson Oliver who is just obsessed with Santa....year round. We got to visit with our daughter Julie and her fiance Brendon; we went to Disney Springs on Christmas Eve to see the themed Christmas trees and visit with Santa; then of course the highlight was Santa coming with all his presents for the little man.
Headed back on Thursday afternoon to Fort Lauderdale after I'd made my selections for the day.....
Thursday December 26
I had handicapped the card prior to our departure and made my bets before we loaded up and drove home. Missed in the opener and passed the second. The third was a maiden claiming event for 2yo and I just did not like the odds-on choice. Mikalah was dropping in class for the fifth consecutive time and top rider Luis Saez was opting off to ride Tuff N Bluff who was my choice. She was also dropping but just for the third time, and in her last she not only started wide in post 11, but when bidding for the lead she made 2nd and was steadied. Tuff N Bluff pressed the pace, took over turning for home and then the 2/5 favorite Mikalah came to her. But Saez would not let her by and I had my first winner of the week.
The fourth was a maiden event on the turf for two-year-olds. He's Super Lucky had debuted at Saratoga in a MSW then dropped to this $25K level here in September and was a just-miss second. On Opening Weekend of the Championship Meet he stepped UP to $35K runners and improved position while earning a "paired" Beyer figure. Luis Saez took over the mount today as he dropped back down. He was ninth early, and I was concerned, but he began picking off horses and wore down the 25/1 leader in deep stretch to give me my second win, and at a generous 3/1 price. Cashed for $40 :)
The fifth was my "best" of the day. Another maiden claiming event, fillies sprinting six and a half furlongs. Hartling had paired Beyer figures, was dropping out of MSW company to run for a first time tag, AND her last two paired figures were better than anything the rest of the field had ever earned. Again Luis Saez was up. Dueled for a half mile with a 6/1 rival and then kicked clear in the final furlong for my third win in a row!
Passed one and missed three picks to bring us to the finale of the Thursday card. This was a five furlong turf sprint for non-winners of three lifetime. Jorge Navarro's Xy Speed was dropping in class and coming off a layoff. This was the first time he'd run for a tag AND in conditioned company. And Luis Saez was up again. Three way duel to the turn then put those rivals away to win gamely when the second choice tried to rally by.
Luis Saez had FIVE wins on the card and I finished four-for-eight to begin the week. I'll take that any day of the week.
Friday December 27
I passed the first three races and in the fourth I was against the heavy favorite. Ray'swarrior had won as the 1/5 favorite for me two weeks ago on the class drop and he was ultra-fast. But on that day he was claimed away by a barn that was 0-for-7 first off the claim and just 1-for-22 at the meet. No thanks. I liked the second choice Starship Apollo who was 5/2 in the program and was sitting at about 3/1 until GP analysts Ron Nicoletti and Jason Blewitt began talking about his good chances. The race did NOT unfold as I'd seen it. I thought Ray'swarrior was clearly the speed of the race and jockey Irad Ortiz would stalk and blow by. Instead it was Ortiz on 'Apollo who gunned to the front and Ray'swarrior could not keep up. Wire to wire for my first win of the day.
The sixth was a maiden claiming turf event for two-year-olds going seven and a half furlongs. Wicked Solution looked much the best on the class drop but I was suspicious. So I only invested a minimum amount. Sat back for Irad Ortiz, moved on the turn to challenge and drew off at even money and I was 2-for-2.
Right back in the seventh with Ron Nicoletti's best bet on French Quarter. He'd last run in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth. Today he dropped in class into this claiming event and turned back to a one-turn mile. Got a rider switch to patient Irad Ortiz and best of all had fired a best-of-82 bullet for today. Sat third behind the lone speed, moved up into the lane and the two favorites dueled for a furlong before French Quarter drew clear for my third win.
Missed on my last two, but still three for five isn't anything to sneeze at. And ironically after Luis Saez had won five yesterday, today Irad Ortiz won five races.
When I began handicapping for today I was faced with a dilemma - to go to the races today or not? On the one hand......it's Gulfstream in the winter and that's the time of the year I look forward to going all year long. And there were many good races to watch and wager on. But, on the other hand....the biggest races were from Santa Anita and wouldn't go off until late afternoon and into the evening; and there was college football on beginning at noon; AND the national semi-final bowl games were on at 4 pm and 8 pm; AND there was a Panthers home game. In the end I decided I'd play at home, watch football and give the Panthers tickets away (because there's a home game right back tomorrow night). The first bet was a triple investment at Gulfstream and I was the 1/2 favorite, and got run down in deep stretch. Is THIS the kind of day I'm going to have? Sigh......But then I went on a five race winning streak! In Laurel's 2nd Let's Play Nine may have some real ability as he graduated at first asking last time out in a sprint and today handled entry level allowance at a one-turn mile pretty handily. I also won the opener at the Fair Grounds in a maiden claiming event for 2yo when My Boy Lollipop came firing up the rail to score.
I picked up first two stakes wins of the day - one at Laurel and one at Gulfstream. The third at Laurel was the Dave's Friend Stakes going six furlongs. Threefiveindia looked to be a heavy favorite and deservedly so after drilling So Cal sprinters in his last two. And those two Beyer figures would beat 166 of the 169 combined speed figures earned by the rest of the field. He was tons the best and paid what I thought was a more than fair $3 to win.
The Gulfstream program featured several turf events and they'd run on the grass on Friday. But because of overnight rains they took some of them off the turf, including the Janus Stakes at five furlongs. I had noted in my analysis that Extravagant Kid was Gr 1 stakes placed on the main track in addition to having good turf form (was my second choice on the turf). He went off as the 6/5 favorite and swooped by to score.
And I topped off the five race streak when New Day Dawning debuted in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream for maiden special two-year-olds and was dominant. She may have a stakes future, watch for her down the line.
Over the next several races I ran third three times and was off the board in three others before finally getting back in the winner's circle in another stakes event at Laurel. The Willa On The Move looked like a good spot for Majestic Reason to take advantage of a favorite who looked to be compromised on the front end today. Sure enough, the 9/5 favorite had to work hard to get and hold the lead through the opening half mile and then faded to third. Meanwhile Majestic Reason sat back in fifth and rallied up the inside when the leaders drifted off the rail like the parting of the Red Sea, and held off a longshot for the score.
Missed at the Fair Grounds and then won back-to-back stakes. The fifth at Santa Anita was the first of their five graded events, of which I had picks in four of them. This was the Grade 2 San Antonio and the defending champ was Gift Box from the John Sadler barn. DRF analyst Brad Free made him his BEST BET, and when Brad Free says that I pay attention. He was a former Gr 1 winner and was working great. He'd won two of three starts at Santa Anita with the lone loss coming in a Gr 1 behind Vino Rosso who won the Breeders' Cup Classic here in November. Joel Rosario sat patiently off a longshot leader to the far turn, then galloped up under a hand ride and drew off impressively.
Next was the seventh at the Fair Grounds. Interesting how track managements differ on how they handle turf races. It was a wet, rainy day in New Orleans but the big stakes were still on the turf, all of them (unlike Gulfstream). Here was the Pago Hop going a mile and I really liked Zofelle. As a Euro import she had a decided class edge. And she was 2-for-2 in the US since arriving. What impressed me most was in her last she rallied from far back despite slow fractions and won going away. So when she lagged near the back today I was a bit anxious but knew if she were to win it would be with a big late kick, and the Fair Grounds has a L-O-N-G stretch. Began picking off horses entering the far turn, swung out some five wide to have clear run and inhaled the leader at the sixteenth pole to edge clear for the win.
Was delighted that Zofelle paid $7.20 with my triple investment yielding a winning return of more than $50! WHOOOO HOOOOO. I really liked Bellafina in the Grade 1 La Brea going seven furlongs. She was a multiple Grade 1 winner and she was 5/4-1-0 at Santa Anita, that lone loss in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in a just miss second behind the odds-on favorite. She was 3/5 at post time and was clear on the lead into the lane but got run down by a $20 winner in deep stretch. Glad she wasn't MY best bet. And then I closed out the day by winning FIVE STRAIGHT! The first was at Gulfstream, the H. Allen Jerkens originally carded for two miles on the turf. For some reason when it was take off the turf they reduced the distance to a mile and a quarter. And all of this played into the hand of my pick, Todd Pletcher's American Tattoo who had been a good third going fourteen furlongs in the Grade 2 Marathon on Breeders' Cup weekend on the main track. Jose Ortiz put him right on the lead and the odds-on choice wired the field handily.
Next up was The Woodchopper from the Fair Grounds going a mile on the turf. I can honestly say I had this one because of my handicapping at Monmouth all summer long. Tracksmith had won the Frisk Me Now Stakes at Monmouth for trainer Joe Sharp in a better-than-it-looked effort as my top choice. He'd been close in two Gr 3 events since and the drop into a listed event again suited him. He was also an off-the-pace runner which often is the preferred running style on the FG course. Didn't care for the wide draw in post 13 but as a closer I figured it wouldn't be a huge problem. Sure enough, came running late to be up in time at a big 3/1. Wishing I'd invested more than the minimum on him like I did on Zofelle earlier in the day.
The Grade 1 Malibu for 3yo going seven furlongs at Santa Anita was next. In it, Omaha Beach was my BEST BET of the Day. I thought he was the most talented horse on Breeders' Cup weekend, and I really thought then, and now, that it was Mike Smith's misjudged ride that led to him being second in the Gr 1 BC Dirt Mile. Today he looked ideally drawn on the outside and just was too good for these. Three runners vied for the early lead and Smith bidded his time in the clear to the turn. Never asked him to run as he blew by and drew off easily. That was the easiest $28 I've ever cashed on!
By now the national championships were on and I was only watching races when I was "live." That came in Santa Anita's tenth, the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile on the turf. I liked what figured to be the short priced favorite in Mo Forza. It took this guy six tries to break his maiden, but when he did three back he came right back to beat winners....and not just winners, but he won the Grade 2 Twilight Derby on Breeders' Cup Weekend. And he followed that up by winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. In top form with the best figures and likely to sit the perfect trip he was the pick. He was shuffled back at the start to ninth and I was anxious. But Joel Rosario got his feet under him and he advanced on turn while a bit wide. Began picking off horses into the far turn and got to the front with all the momentum into the lane and scored.
On to the Pegasus World Cup Turf are the plans for this guy.....and I'll BE THERE! The last bet of the day was in the finale in So Cal, a maiden claimer for juveniles but Include The Tax looked too good to pass up. He had been third at this level last time out and both the winner and runner up came right back to score. Joel Rosario guided him outside and then back inside to get the win....my thirteenth win on the day (from 22 selections - nearly 60%!).
I went winless from three picks on Sunday when most races came off the turf at Gulfstream but still finished the week 20-for-39, that's 51.3% for those of you without a calculator, and a profit of over $65. And with the close of racing Sunday the first month of racing has finished. I'm off to an exceptionally good start, winning at nearly 40%!
One last note.....our good friend Sofia from Portugal had not received her Christmas card we sent nearly three weeks ago. On Friday we hooked up online as it arrived. She was happy we thought of her and I was happy she got it.
Thursday December 26
I had handicapped the card prior to our departure and made my bets before we loaded up and drove home. Missed in the opener and passed the second. The third was a maiden claiming event for 2yo and I just did not like the odds-on choice. Mikalah was dropping in class for the fifth consecutive time and top rider Luis Saez was opting off to ride Tuff N Bluff who was my choice. She was also dropping but just for the third time, and in her last she not only started wide in post 11, but when bidding for the lead she made 2nd and was steadied. Tuff N Bluff pressed the pace, took over turning for home and then the 2/5 favorite Mikalah came to her. But Saez would not let her by and I had my first winner of the week.
The fourth was a maiden event on the turf for two-year-olds. He's Super Lucky had debuted at Saratoga in a MSW then dropped to this $25K level here in September and was a just-miss second. On Opening Weekend of the Championship Meet he stepped UP to $35K runners and improved position while earning a "paired" Beyer figure. Luis Saez took over the mount today as he dropped back down. He was ninth early, and I was concerned, but he began picking off horses and wore down the 25/1 leader in deep stretch to give me my second win, and at a generous 3/1 price. Cashed for $40 :)
The fifth was my "best" of the day. Another maiden claiming event, fillies sprinting six and a half furlongs. Hartling had paired Beyer figures, was dropping out of MSW company to run for a first time tag, AND her last two paired figures were better than anything the rest of the field had ever earned. Again Luis Saez was up. Dueled for a half mile with a 6/1 rival and then kicked clear in the final furlong for my third win in a row!
Passed one and missed three picks to bring us to the finale of the Thursday card. This was a five furlong turf sprint for non-winners of three lifetime. Jorge Navarro's Xy Speed was dropping in class and coming off a layoff. This was the first time he'd run for a tag AND in conditioned company. And Luis Saez was up again. Three way duel to the turn then put those rivals away to win gamely when the second choice tried to rally by.
Luis Saez had FIVE wins on the card and I finished four-for-eight to begin the week. I'll take that any day of the week.
Friday December 27
I passed the first three races and in the fourth I was against the heavy favorite. Ray'swarrior had won as the 1/5 favorite for me two weeks ago on the class drop and he was ultra-fast. But on that day he was claimed away by a barn that was 0-for-7 first off the claim and just 1-for-22 at the meet. No thanks. I liked the second choice Starship Apollo who was 5/2 in the program and was sitting at about 3/1 until GP analysts Ron Nicoletti and Jason Blewitt began talking about his good chances. The race did NOT unfold as I'd seen it. I thought Ray'swarrior was clearly the speed of the race and jockey Irad Ortiz would stalk and blow by. Instead it was Ortiz on 'Apollo who gunned to the front and Ray'swarrior could not keep up. Wire to wire for my first win of the day.
The sixth was a maiden claiming turf event for two-year-olds going seven and a half furlongs. Wicked Solution looked much the best on the class drop but I was suspicious. So I only invested a minimum amount. Sat back for Irad Ortiz, moved on the turn to challenge and drew off at even money and I was 2-for-2.
Right back in the seventh with Ron Nicoletti's best bet on French Quarter. He'd last run in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth. Today he dropped in class into this claiming event and turned back to a one-turn mile. Got a rider switch to patient Irad Ortiz and best of all had fired a best-of-82 bullet for today. Sat third behind the lone speed, moved up into the lane and the two favorites dueled for a furlong before French Quarter drew clear for my third win.
Missed on my last two, but still three for five isn't anything to sneeze at. And ironically after Luis Saez had won five yesterday, today Irad Ortiz won five races.
Saturday December 28: Opening Day At Santa Anita
When I began handicapping for today I was faced with a dilemma - to go to the races today or not? On the one hand......it's Gulfstream in the winter and that's the time of the year I look forward to going all year long. And there were many good races to watch and wager on. But, on the other hand....the biggest races were from Santa Anita and wouldn't go off until late afternoon and into the evening; and there was college football on beginning at noon; AND the national semi-final bowl games were on at 4 pm and 8 pm; AND there was a Panthers home game. In the end I decided I'd play at home, watch football and give the Panthers tickets away (because there's a home game right back tomorrow night). The first bet was a triple investment at Gulfstream and I was the 1/2 favorite, and got run down in deep stretch. Is THIS the kind of day I'm going to have? Sigh......But then I went on a five race winning streak! In Laurel's 2nd Let's Play Nine may have some real ability as he graduated at first asking last time out in a sprint and today handled entry level allowance at a one-turn mile pretty handily. I also won the opener at the Fair Grounds in a maiden claiming event for 2yo when My Boy Lollipop came firing up the rail to score.
The Gulfstream program featured several turf events and they'd run on the grass on Friday. But because of overnight rains they took some of them off the turf, including the Janus Stakes at five furlongs. I had noted in my analysis that Extravagant Kid was Gr 1 stakes placed on the main track in addition to having good turf form (was my second choice on the turf). He went off as the 6/5 favorite and swooped by to score.
And I topped off the five race streak when New Day Dawning debuted in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream for maiden special two-year-olds and was dominant. She may have a stakes future, watch for her down the line.
Over the next several races I ran third three times and was off the board in three others before finally getting back in the winner's circle in another stakes event at Laurel. The Willa On The Move looked like a good spot for Majestic Reason to take advantage of a favorite who looked to be compromised on the front end today. Sure enough, the 9/5 favorite had to work hard to get and hold the lead through the opening half mile and then faded to third. Meanwhile Majestic Reason sat back in fifth and rallied up the inside when the leaders drifted off the rail like the parting of the Red Sea, and held off a longshot for the score.
Missed at the Fair Grounds and then won back-to-back stakes. The fifth at Santa Anita was the first of their five graded events, of which I had picks in four of them. This was the Grade 2 San Antonio and the defending champ was Gift Box from the John Sadler barn. DRF analyst Brad Free made him his BEST BET, and when Brad Free says that I pay attention. He was a former Gr 1 winner and was working great. He'd won two of three starts at Santa Anita with the lone loss coming in a Gr 1 behind Vino Rosso who won the Breeders' Cup Classic here in November. Joel Rosario sat patiently off a longshot leader to the far turn, then galloped up under a hand ride and drew off impressively.
Next was the seventh at the Fair Grounds. Interesting how track managements differ on how they handle turf races. It was a wet, rainy day in New Orleans but the big stakes were still on the turf, all of them (unlike Gulfstream). Here was the Pago Hop going a mile and I really liked Zofelle. As a Euro import she had a decided class edge. And she was 2-for-2 in the US since arriving. What impressed me most was in her last she rallied from far back despite slow fractions and won going away. So when she lagged near the back today I was a bit anxious but knew if she were to win it would be with a big late kick, and the Fair Grounds has a L-O-N-G stretch. Began picking off horses entering the far turn, swung out some five wide to have clear run and inhaled the leader at the sixteenth pole to edge clear for the win.
Was delighted that Zofelle paid $7.20 with my triple investment yielding a winning return of more than $50! WHOOOO HOOOOO. I really liked Bellafina in the Grade 1 La Brea going seven furlongs. She was a multiple Grade 1 winner and she was 5/4-1-0 at Santa Anita, that lone loss in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in a just miss second behind the odds-on favorite. She was 3/5 at post time and was clear on the lead into the lane but got run down by a $20 winner in deep stretch. Glad she wasn't MY best bet. And then I closed out the day by winning FIVE STRAIGHT! The first was at Gulfstream, the H. Allen Jerkens originally carded for two miles on the turf. For some reason when it was take off the turf they reduced the distance to a mile and a quarter. And all of this played into the hand of my pick, Todd Pletcher's American Tattoo who had been a good third going fourteen furlongs in the Grade 2 Marathon on Breeders' Cup weekend on the main track. Jose Ortiz put him right on the lead and the odds-on choice wired the field handily.
Next up was The Woodchopper from the Fair Grounds going a mile on the turf. I can honestly say I had this one because of my handicapping at Monmouth all summer long. Tracksmith had won the Frisk Me Now Stakes at Monmouth for trainer Joe Sharp in a better-than-it-looked effort as my top choice. He'd been close in two Gr 3 events since and the drop into a listed event again suited him. He was also an off-the-pace runner which often is the preferred running style on the FG course. Didn't care for the wide draw in post 13 but as a closer I figured it wouldn't be a huge problem. Sure enough, came running late to be up in time at a big 3/1. Wishing I'd invested more than the minimum on him like I did on Zofelle earlier in the day.
The Grade 1 Malibu for 3yo going seven furlongs at Santa Anita was next. In it, Omaha Beach was my BEST BET of the Day. I thought he was the most talented horse on Breeders' Cup weekend, and I really thought then, and now, that it was Mike Smith's misjudged ride that led to him being second in the Gr 1 BC Dirt Mile. Today he looked ideally drawn on the outside and just was too good for these. Three runners vied for the early lead and Smith bidded his time in the clear to the turn. Never asked him to run as he blew by and drew off easily. That was the easiest $28 I've ever cashed on!
By now the national championships were on and I was only watching races when I was "live." That came in Santa Anita's tenth, the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile on the turf. I liked what figured to be the short priced favorite in Mo Forza. It took this guy six tries to break his maiden, but when he did three back he came right back to beat winners....and not just winners, but he won the Grade 2 Twilight Derby on Breeders' Cup Weekend. And he followed that up by winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. In top form with the best figures and likely to sit the perfect trip he was the pick. He was shuffled back at the start to ninth and I was anxious. But Joel Rosario got his feet under him and he advanced on turn while a bit wide. Began picking off horses into the far turn and got to the front with all the momentum into the lane and scored.
On to the Pegasus World Cup Turf are the plans for this guy.....and I'll BE THERE! The last bet of the day was in the finale in So Cal, a maiden claimer for juveniles but Include The Tax looked too good to pass up. He had been third at this level last time out and both the winner and runner up came right back to score. Joel Rosario guided him outside and then back inside to get the win....my thirteenth win on the day (from 22 selections - nearly 60%!).
I went winless from three picks on Sunday when most races came off the turf at Gulfstream but still finished the week 20-for-39, that's 51.3% for those of you without a calculator, and a profit of over $65. And with the close of racing Sunday the first month of racing has finished. I'm off to an exceptionally good start, winning at nearly 40%!
One last note.....our good friend Sofia from Portugal had not received her Christmas card we sent nearly three weeks ago. On Friday we hooked up online as it arrived. She was happy we thought of her and I was happy she got it.
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