Fair Grounds Super Saturday Stakes Week

December 18

I decided what better place to spend a Wednesday afternoon than at Gulfstream where I had selections in the first five races.  My plan was to go to the races this week during the week and I had initially targeted Thursday before I began the handicapping process.  But while beginning the picks for Wednesday I got a call from my buddy Paul Gorlick from Cypress Bay HS asking me to join him and a couple others for lunch on Thursday.  And as it turned out, I had several selections on the first half of the card here today.  So I headed out to Gulfstream and arrived about fifteen minutes before the first race.  In the opener we were traveling six furlongs in a maiden claiming sprint for two year olds.  In my opinion it looked like there were three solid win candidates, but what separated Silvery Enough from the other two were the human connections.  In his debut, Silvery Enough had run a best-of-the-rest second behind a daylight winner who had come back to win again.  In addition 'Silvery had been three wide AND forced to alter paths at the furlong pole in mid-stretch.  But as I mentioned, it was the human factor that appealed most.  Silvery Enough had been claimed out of that first start by Scott Becker who wins with nearly 30% of those and he was replacing apprentice Cristian Torres with hot-riding Paco Lopez today.  Right to the front while being confidently handled by Paco.  Once they turned for home he let Silvery Enough out a notch and the margin of victory grew with each and every stride.  Decisive with my double investment on board.  I had a pick in the second which was a five furlong turf sprint, but my top choice scratched.  I looked at my second choice and considered betting that one.  Went back and forth, but knowing I had three more bets before I planned to leave made me patient enough to just watch.  My second pick was easily best and paid over $7.  Wish I'd played since I was there.  In the third race it was a cheap $6,250K sprint and honestly it looked like a woeful group to me.  The seven runners had a combined 7-for-92 record in this restricted 2-lifetime event.  But the DRF's Mike Welsch made Followhisfootsteps his BEST BET of the day in here.  I looked more carefully at him and while on the upside you could say he's 8-for-14 in the money and has the best numbers in the field while also dropping in class, you could also argue that he still had just the one win and the barn is 0-for-11 currently.  Broke sharply under Luis Saez and dueled to the far turn with a 7/1 longshot.  But then he switched gears and opened up to run away by daylight.....and suddenly I'm two-for-two!

In the fourth, we were on the turf and I was surprised that none of the local analysts put my top choice, Keota on top.  Every angle was in his favor......from the Jason Servis barn (top North American turf sprint trainer); Irad Ortiz up (51% for Servis); off a layoff (30% win angle for Servis); dropping in class out of a $50K starter allowance to this $35K claiming sprint.  Bingo, bango, bongo!  He tracked the two leaders some nearly five lengths off the pace to the first turn.  Edged outside into the clear and quickly collared the front runners.  Asked to run when heads turned for home he blew by and won under wraps.  THREE-for-THREE!

The only "bad news" about the weekday racing adventure was that I lost the next race which was my "best bet" - a Todd Pletcher 2yo MSW runner who led the length of the stretch at 1/5 before getting caught in the final strides.  Still, I'll take going three for four on a weekday afternoon at the races!

Thursday December 19
Today I enjoyed a long afternoon in Weston with three old pals from Cypress Bay High and it was really great to be "social" today.  Got home about 3 pm and watched the replays of the first eight races and then watched the last two live.  In the fourth the 2/5 favorite and my top choice sat poised to run by the leaders on the turn but flattened out.  In the fifth we were on the turf for a maiden claiming sprint for juveniles.  A week ago I'd picked No Nay Maybe as the top choice in a spot like this but for a $25K tag.  The races were washed off the grass and he scratched.  Today he was re-entered but it was for a big $50K tag.  Seemed like a confident move by Jorge Navarro.  Luis Saez took him right to the front and he whistled a :21 and change opening quarter to skip clear handily.  Never looked back at even money.

But that proved to be the lone winner on the day.

Friday December 20
Today I was preparing a detailed analysis of all the Gulfstream Saturday races in anticipation of one of my former students so she could understand the racing better.  Throughout the afternoon I had the races on from Gulfstream and with the way the weather was, I did not make my bets up front because I was sure that some, if not all the turf races would come off the inner course.  But instead, we were on the grass all day.  And this in spite of overcast skies and drizzling rain on and off.  So I figured we would be on the turf on Saturday and generally made my selections based on that.  In the opener I thought Grace's Drama was a legitimate long-shot, listed at 12/1 in the program.  I was surprised she not only did NOT go down in price but floated up to 15/1.  A solid third.....good handicapping but no reward.  After passing the second I liked Midtown Rose in the third race, an entry level allowance sprint on the main track.  The conditions completely favored Midtown Rose who was running for Saffie Joseph with Irad Ortiz up.  Patiently handled in third behind the speed to the turn, Ortiz urged her to go midway around the bend.  'Rose forged to a narrow lead but when they straightened into the lane she ran away as much, MUCH the best and I had my first winner of the day.

No bets until the 7th as I passed two races and had a scratch.  In the seventh, I loved Todd Pletcher's Nonna Madeline.  I've often railed about the DRF's early morning line and this is just another example of just how embarrassing it is to use these "graded entries" sometimes.  Somehow this filly, who scored at first asking and then ran in three consecutive graded stakes before going to the shelf, was given a 20/1 shot by the DRF linemaker.  Really?  The layoff, is that the problem?  Hardly since Pletcher wins with 30% of those.  Just a go figure situation.  She was well bet as a short-priced favorite but stumbled out of the gate.  Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez quickly gathered her up and got her into stride and to the front within the first 100 yards.  From there on she was in complete, COMPLETE control and drew off as much the best.

I was glad I upped the investment as I'd been watching the live streaming broadcast.  Missed in the eighth and in the final bet of the day, an entry level allowance around two turns for two-year-olds with some promise Toledo was the 3/5 favorite and was tracking a 14/1 longshot through very fast fractions going a one-turn mile.  He made his move, picking off horses on the turn but the longshot had been left alone too long and he'd slowed the race down through the middle stakes.  Held on easily while Toldeo was more than TEN clear of the rest of the field.

Saturday December 21

Shortly before I left for Gulfstream I got a text from my girl Kristian that her cold was no better and she'd not be joining me today.  Disappointed, but it's all about the racing so off I went with selections from not only Gulfstream and the holiday card at the Fair Grounds, but also a few selections from Aqueduct and Tampa Bay.  I was very surprised upon arriving that after running ON the turf yesterday we were off the turf for all races today.  That made an already pretty average card even more difficult to figure.....and it cost me my selection in the opener.  Missed out of town a few times before it was time for the third from Gulfstream.  Originally carded as a five furlong sprint, we'd now be on the main which made Main Track Only Vinnie Van Go the obvious choice.  Upped the bet and watched as he blew away the competition.

Minutes later Roiland was the main track only runner at the Fair Grounds where it had been pouring down rain for almost two full days.  When I noted how much play he was getting I upped the bet and watched him run away through the long New Orleans stretch.  In the fourth at Aqueduct there were two ways to look at I Love Jaxson.  He'd won only a single race from his first dozen starts - ouch - but since then he'd been allowed to go a distance of ground.  He'd responded by winning three straight before losing in open allowance last time out.  I decided to play, but only the minimum.  He was tons the best and scored with ease as the 6/5 favorite.

The third at the Fair Grounds was next and it was the first of the Santa Super Saturday Stakes, the Lettellier Memorial for two-year-old fillies.  Taraz came from the Steve Asmussen barn and she'd been dazzling in her debut.  But for me the key were her pace figures.  Even though a couple of others earned higher Beyer speed figures, it looked to me that Taraz would be ALL ALONE through the lane if she ran back to her first race pace figures.  Right to the front and she was ultra, ULTRA impressive.  May have a seen a budding 3yo superstar in action here!

And much like the Roiland race earlier, because of the strong support she was getting I'd upped the bet here as well.  Close without winning in several races for the next forty-five minutes and then I went on one final run.  From Tampa, Simply Great looked "simply great" in this cheap claiming event.  But for $6,250K it seemed like really short odds to list him at 7/5 in the program.  Made me hesitant to bet more than the minimum unless she was well played.  And she wasn't, opened up around 4/1 and didn't drift down until near post time.  But the late money was accurate as she was much the best.  Two stakes races from out of town were up next going off at nearly the same time.  At the Fair Grounds it was the Bonapaw Stakes scheduled for 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  Now on the main track I was SURE that Pete's Play Call would be the favorite, or at least a very short price.  I mean it just leaped off the page that he was 3-for-5 on the off going and he'd won a race JUST LIKE THIS at this distance in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga.  Yet, he was sitting up there at 4/1 early in the betting.  My plan had been to triple the bet but without the expected action I wondered if I was missing something.  Considered down-sizing the bet, but then I said to myself, "No, I'm right, he's the right one" and left the bet at $15 to win.  Tracked the leaders from mid-pace to the far turn then began picking off horses one by one.  Got on even terms with the leader turning for home and then edged clear.  The odds came down to 3/1 but with my investment intact I was going to cash for $60!  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOO.

No sooner had they crossed the line than they were off in the nine furlong Queen's County Stakes at Aqueduct in New York.  In the past Stan The Man had shown a quick opening gear and I felt that he'd be ultra tough to beat if left alone on the front end.  But if he didn't make the lead I knew he could win from a stalking trip.  He was out quicked to the front heading into the first turn so he was patiently handled in third to the far turn.  Split horses, made his move and opened up in mid-stretch.  But here came a late-running closer up the rail.......PHOTO FINISH!

I was pretty sure I'd won, but you never know with the camera angle.  Finally, it's official, I'm the winner!  And another near-$40 coming to me so in two quick races I'd be cashing for nearly $100!  Gotta love the races.  In the Gulfstream featured Grade 3 Mr. Prospector, multiple graded stakes winning Imperial Hint looked much the best - went off at 4/5 - if jockey Javier Castellano just was patient and didn't try to blaze away in a speed duel with horse-for-the-course and SIX furlong specialist XY Jet.  He did.  Got to the front but was mowed down late.  Very disappointing way to finish what had been a good day at the races!

Highlights of Two Days On Track

December 18 & December 21

Sunday December 22
Today we were up early and out the door, on the road to Orlando by 7 am.  We will be spending the next five days with Brad, Lauren, and our grandson Oliver for Christmas.  We arrived in Orlando about 10:15 am - great time with very little traffic and the first thing I did was put in my five bets for the day.  Watched the replays later that night after we'd gone to see the latest Star Wars movie - so cool, can't believe I've been following this saga for over FORTY YEARS! - and getting Oliver off to bed.  I won with my first play of the day and it was my BEST BET of the day.  In the second, much like with Nonna Madeline in the 7th on Friday, somehow the DRF listed Todd Pletcher's 2yo Fearless at odds of 10/1.  This $750K son of champion Ghostzapper had sharp works and looked easily best in here.  Sure enough, went off at 1/5 and won.  Granted he had to work hard through the final furlong of the six furlong sprint, but he showed great heart and determination.

Nothing in the fourth or fifth, but in the sixth we were on the grass (after being off for the first two turf races today, go figure) and I liked Queen of Shades A LOT.  Probably would have gone "prime time" or better had she not been a two year old.  She'd debuted with a strong win and then ran in a stakes race.  Her two Beyer figures (70-71) were paired, which were indicative of a move forward; and those two numbers were better than the combined 26 numbers earned by the rest of the field!  Add in that with paired figs, double Beyer fig advantage, and dropping in class that she was from the Jason Servis barn with Irad Ortiz - winning together at a 51% clip - and you can see why she was the favorite.  Won for fun.

Off the board in the last three, but it had been another good day.  No racing on Wednesday due to the holiday but the track will be open and I'll have picks for Thursday through Sunday next week.