March 1 - 5
Fountain of Youth Week
It was a BIG week of racing as it was Fountain of Youth Day on Saturday with a massive 14-race card which included NINE stakes events. Even the non-stakes races were, for the first time this year, "Gulfstream quality" from what we remember from when it truly was "World Class Racing." I was very pleased with the results for the week as from the total of fifty-one races offered over the five days at Gulfstream, TWENTY-THREE paid double digits (over 45%) - with six of those paying $20 or more. Of the twenty-eight that were more formful I had eleven wins - and that was from thirty-two betting choices for a nice 34% win rate. AND, on every day but one I had more than a single winner to cash tickets on. I'll take that. Here's how the week played out...... Wednesday was the day I had only one winner, but I also had only three bets on the day (had a fourth that scratched). The day started with leading rider Irad Ortiz sweeping the early double on two favorites - neither of whom I liked and I didn't bet. Ran a distant 8th with a 10/1 longshot in the third then was a disappointing fifth at 6/5 in the fourth. I had the $14.60 winner in the fifth listed on top, but didn't bet. WOW. To be fair, the horse didn't make any sense to me but listed at 15/1 in the program with NO FORM whatsoever, and yet Irad was up. I noted that if he was bet to make a play. At 6/1 I still wasn't inclined to go along - bad form on that decision :( Finally in the last race of the abbreviated eight-race card I liked Pillbox going a mile on the turf under MOC conditions for older. In her just her second career start last time out she'd gone long for the first time, tried turf for the first time and had made the lead turning for home only to be nailed late....AND STILL had the best Beyer on the page. Mike Maker claimed her for the big ticket and entered her right back under the same conditions. All that would have been enough, but then I noted that top rider Irad Ortiz over the last two years had only bee on a dozen runners for Maker who's a very active trainer here....but Ortiz had won SIX TIMES for him. UH OH. Right to the front and never was threatened. The triple investment netted me over $25 and I was a flat bet profit winner for the day!
Thursday - so some explanation is due......today was Day 62 of the winter meet. For years - and I mean YEARS dating back to my days in the classroom, when ever I was giving an example of something that had happened many times, for some reason I've always used the number "62" in every instance. So my 62nd b'day saw me receive big "62" balloons and I thought it only appropriate to share that pic on the day's banner for the analysis :) Missed in the first, passed three straight then was a good fourth at 10/1 - good bet, no cash. Missed at 8/5 when third in the sixth - is it going to be "that" kind of day? Nope. In the 7th, a turf sprint under conditioned allowance conditions I liked Love and Money. I noted that she was a "need to lead" type and had whistled through a :20.3 and :43.1 pace last time out only to be nailed on the wire. I wrote, "....she'll be clear once again and if we see :44 and some change I think this 5yo mare is long, LONG gone...." She was pressing the leader and when the half mile split was flashed at :44.1 I "knew" I had it. Edged to the front, was clear and had plenty left to hold on for the win. Because she was well bet, and Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet I upped the wager and cashed for over $30 as a result. WHOOOO HOOOO.
The 8th was an excellent race - it was an entry level 3yo allowance event going nine furlongs and you KNEW that several of these were being given a "trial run" towards a possible run at the Florida Derby. There were four prime players, I thought, and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them won. But Todd Pletcher's Classic Catch looked to have the most upside to me. I was a bit concerned that he had two in the field, and considered upping the bet when 'Catch was well bet into favoritism. But I've seen too many times when "the other Pletcher" horse wins to up the ante. When he was away slowly I shook my head, but he advanced easily into fourth into the turn. Swept up on the turn for home, was four wide and drove clear to win!
Friday I won the opener with Spirit of Power in a maiden claiming turf route for older. Wasn't a big fan, but look more than good enough for a small investment. Swept by from fourth on the turn to draw off. Missed on three picks during the middle of the card but closed out the day when I upped the bet on Todd Pletcher's Sinfiltre in a 3yo MSW. This was "interesting" to me because (a) it was on the synthetic - which generally speaking I'm not a fan of playing those races - and (b) it was at the elongated 9 1/2 furlongs - an unusual trip, especially for maiden 3yo's and on the artificial surface. Pressed a 24/1 longshot to the turn, opened up by nearly a pole and won geared down.
Saturday March 4
First post at Gulfstream was 11 am so I left the house about 9:45 and I had picks not only from GP with plays in all fourteen races (nine stakes!), as well as picks from Aqueduct - where it was Gotham Stakes Day (their version of FOY Day); picks from the Fair Grounds where they had two listed stakes; picks from Oaklawn where they also had two listed stakes; AND picks from Santa Anita where it was "Big Cap Day" - Santa Anita Handicap Day which also featured multiple stakes races, including the Gr 2 San Felipe, THEIR FOY stakes. As I'd handicapped the Gulfstream card it looked to me like Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher was going to have a banner day and I had his horses in a majority of the races on the card. In the opener, an allowance turf sprint I had his horse, Under Oath who was the tepid 3/1 favorite. As seems to happen to me oh-so-often, "away slowly" and ran a non-threatening 6th. Came right back with another Pletcher runner in the 2nd, a MSW going 7f on the main track, Image of Love. Bet down to even money she broke on top and was coasting on a daylight lead into the lane before giving way to finish a weakening third. WOW. In the third race it was Pletcher for me again in a conditioned turf allowance route. Up To The Mark was a horse I recalled from his last effort. After a debut win sprinting on dirt he'd never run badly, but also had not won. Then on the Pegasus undercard he was entered into a turf route. I remember this clearly because when he won and paid nearly $30 for a $2 bet and I saw that it was top jockey Irad Ortiz for HOF trainer Pletcher I wondered why I had not bet him.....because he'd done nothing but sprint on dirt! So now off a big Beyer effort I thought there was as good a chance he'd improve as regress second time turf. He was away cleanly and sharply, and I thought "....good, won't have to rally thru traffic...." but then Irad let him settle near the back. They hit the far turn and still, no run but Ortiz was sitting chilly. Gave him the cue and immediately he blew by the field and drew off impressively. OH MY. Didn't get anywhere near 13/1 as the public choice, but I WAS cashing a ticket for the first time today!
As I headed down the steps from the grandstand I found myself walking beside Todd Pletcher and his wife, so I said "Congratulations." And he turned to me and politely said, "Thank you." I then continued, "I am part owner of Balletic, and I appreciate all the work you've done with our filly" to which he said "Thank You" again. Missed when betting Pletcher in the 4th, missed twice in NY; had to choose between Pletcher runners in the first stakes, The Colonel Liam Stakes and I went against the favored one for an unbeaten runner. No, the favorite won. Should have known. Got a good price in the Grade 3 The Very One when I went against Chad Brown's defending champion under Ortiz. I ran 6th at 3/1, ouch and the "other Brown" runner won and paid $19.60. Oh so typical for 2023 Gulfstream. Topped off the skid running second in the Oaklawn opener at 4/5. FINALLY got back to the winners' circle in the seventh at Gulfstream. In last year's 3yo series I never thought that Saffie Joseph's White Abarrio was as good as everyone else. But he won the Gr 3 Holy Bull and the Gr 1 Florida Derby. He'd not won since then, but in his last nine starts he'd been in SIX Gr 1 events. His 4yo debut came going 9f in the $4 Million Gr 1 Pegasus and they were too good for him. Now he was turning back to 7f in an allowance event. He just outclassed the field, had all the big speed figures and his only loss over the track came in the Pegasus. Pressed the pace while in the clear under regular rider Tyler Gaffalione to the turn, swung up to the front, opened up and was long gone. Another short price but a winner.
Minutes later I scored again, this time at Oaklawn. In his last, Wobberjod had been my pick in an $8K sprint. As the favorite he was clear in front to deep stretch but got run down. It's pretty rare that I bet a horse like that back the next time, especially in cheap claiming races. BUT....he was going first off the claim for a barn that was a big 40% with those; they were raising up in price to $10K AND he had a best of the rest second last time. Cruising through the lane, home free I thought. Then he started to shorten stride.....PHOTO FINISH. I really couldn't tell and watching the slo-mo replays still couldn't tell. If I'd had to guess I would have said I lost or a dead heat....but no, HE WON! Whew - even with only the minimum I was happy to cash two straight with "my girl Kimberly (one of the twin tellers who I interacted with all day).
Ran third at 3/1 in the NY prep for the Kentucky Oaks before it was time for the Grade 3 Canadian Turf Mile here at Gulfstream. Todd Pletcher's Emmanuel had started out as a top-notch dirt horse. Then after a couple disappointments they put him on the turf and he'd won some 3yo graded stakes on grass. He'd made his 4yo debut in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes on Festival Preview Day several weeks ago and had shown a new-found rating gear. That proved useful today because into the turn jockey Javier Castellano had a ton of horse but was trapped behind and between horses. Finally with only a furlong left a seam appeared. Once in the clear Emmanuel hit a whole other gear and surged by. And because he had taken a lot of money I'd upped the bet!
Missed at Oaklawn and the Fair Grounds before it was time for the opener at Santa Anita. Top west coast & national rider Flavian Prat was on board for Phil D'Amato on Conclude in this MSW on the turf, sprinting six and a half furlongs - but NOT down the hill like they usually run at this distance. His last out 79 Beyer on debut would beat all of those with experience and the firsters came from barns with a combined 4-for-58 mark. No. Right to the front - was under pressure to the top of the stretch when Prat said "enough of this" and the colt ran away easily.
Pletcher's Cairo Consort was a very short priced favorite in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride and SHOULD have won. But in a rare instance where I would say it was on Irad Ortiz, he let the filly lag near the back in spite of a :50 half mile and 1:14 pace time. Too little, too late, AND wide into the lane. That's on you Irad :( Missed in a Fair Grounds stakes event on the turf before I got my lone win in New York. It was a MSW for 3yo and Signal Corps was patiently handled in mid-pack to the top of the stretch then burst out of the pack and ran away easily.
The biggest disappointment came in the 10th at Gulfstream, the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile where Pletcher's Charge It was EVERYONE'S single. On December 22nd Pletcher brought back graded stakes winner Dr. Post in an allowance. His lone rival it appeared on paper was a horse named Endorsed who'd not won in TWENTY-THREE starts. He beat Dr. Post. Then last month he came back to win the Gr 3 Fred Hooper. Today he was the lone rival for Charge It. This guy had some buzz to him as maybe the new star of the older division. In his first try against winners he'd been 2nd in the Gr 1 Florida Derby. Overmatched in the Kentucky Derby he won the Gr 3 Dwyer by nearly fifteen lengths with an out-of-this-world 111 Beyer. That ended his 3yo campaign. Returned here and won with another triple digit Beyer. Easily MUCH the best as my BET of the Day. Pressed the front runner into the turn, put his head in front and I thought "here we go." Then here came Endorsed....blew by him like he was tied to the rail. Still second, but not even close to this guy who couldn't find the winner's circle before December. Just, wow. At Oaklawn it looked like I had another "obvious winner" going down in flames when Let's Duet lagged near the back with only one horse beaten as she hit the far turn. Suddenly it was like she shifted gears. Smoothly gliding in and out of traffic, weaving through the field she burst to the front inside the 1/8th pole and drew off in one of the best wins of the afternoon from a visual standpoint.
Missed on four more, including the best of the day at the Fair Grounds where 1/5 Who Took The Money was second best - wow, squared. In Oaklawn's co-featured Downthedustyroad Stakes and it looked, on paper like a match race between Summer Shoes and Connie K who had taken turns beating one another. The deciding vote for me came when I read the DRF analysis which noted that Connie K was exiting an OPEN stakes where the 2nd and 3rd finishers ran in an allowance on Thursday. I looked the results up and BOTH ran off the board. That's NOT a good sign. Summer Shoes went right to the front, took no pressure and had clear sailing into the final furlong when Connie K came running....too little too late. With 'Connie going favored I cashed on a $6.40 generous payoff for a $2 investment.
Right back in So Cal in the Grade 2 Buena Vista going a mile on the turf. My first run through did not yield any standouts, but as I've said often....you have to use all the tools at your disposal and in races from So Cal I rely on DRF analyst Brad Free's insights often. He noted that Quattrolle had emerged as a division leader and last time out had closed with an explosive kick, running the final furlong in :22 and change. THAT my friends is absolutely flying. He liked her, so did I. Was in among and behind horses turning for home. But when green grass appeared she reproduced that big kick and accelerated to the wire to score. And much like Summer Shoes, at a generous price!
Missed on four straight where I had the favorite in only one of them. Now it was time for "THE BIG ONE," the Grade 2 $400K Fountain of Youth. I really think that Todd Pletcher's two-year-old champion, winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Forte is a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse. I'd seen several interviews with TAP and he's said that the plan is a two-race prep - here and then either the Florida Derby or the Bluegrass. A win here would take all the pressure off because 50 points on the Derby scale virtually assures a spot in the starting gate. I liked that "everyone" said he'd trained superbly and had schooled like a professional. The only mild concern I had is he's a stalker and with the short run to the first finish line in this mile and a sixteenth race, that could be problematic. But in the Breeders' Cup, that race was at the same distance and at Keeneland they TOO have a short stretch at the trip. Irad Ortiz had him poised just off the leaders and where there wasn't a clear path through rivals he took the champ into the clear and circled them some four-or-five wide. I was standing on the rail, at the finish line as he powered home MUCH the best!
I'd made him a "Prime Time" investment so I cashed for $30 and enjoyed making the celebratory video with the sun setting over the Hallandale oval. Topped of a great day at the races, even with the loss of the Best of the Day, I enjoyed the day immensely.
I still had some races left to watch once I got home. Won two of them - a nice 3/1 price on a Santa Anita allowance winner, Cash Equity. And I collected on the Oaklawn BEST Bet of the Day when Garhole wired the co-featured Nodouble Stakes.
For the day I cashed on a dozen tickets for well over 30% winners. I'm more than happy with that kind of handicapping results!
Fountain of Youth Day Highlights
Sunday I not only had picks from Gulfstream, but also was playing Santa Anita's Sunday card. What would make me vary my usual routine of playing only locally on Sunday? Well, because Saturday was "Santa Anita Handicap Day" in Arcadia, their undercard featured several stakes including the 3yo Derby prep the San Felipe. Management decided to make it a "festive weekend" and rather than run the filly counterpart on the same day, on this Sunday card there were three stakes including the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel for the sophomore fillies with 50 Oaks points on the line. The day started at Gulfstream where the big complaint against Empire Attraction was that she was the favorite. And I'd agree, especially this winter, that would be reason enough to look elsewhere. BUT....I'm a big fan of Beyer speed figures and the last two numbers she'd run were the ONLY TWO figures on the page to top the par value for this class level, AND were the top two figures by daylight of all the numbers on the page. The numbers rarely lie. Tracked in fifth to the turn, circled the field and was five wide turning for home before powering home an easy winner.
Missed with my second pick before in the fifth I had a pick. When I looked over this field $20K "beaten" claimers (nw3L or a race in six months) going seven furlongs I was less than impressed by any of the HORSES. But as I noted in my analysis, I've often said when you're handicapping you have to use all the "tools" in the handicapping "tool box." And here, it was all about the humans. Top jockey Irad Ortiz was on board Your Inheritance. He'd just missed at this level and distance last time out going first off the claim AND stepping up in class. Might not be a fan of that move coming back here but with Irad taking over, for this barn he's won an amazing 13-of-24 for 54% WINS over the last two years for this outfit. UH OH, big time UH OH! And when he was bet very heavily I upped the bet. Tracked the top two in third to the turn, asked to run and circled the field then drew off. Cashed for almost $25.
Missed on the other GP picks. In the opener at Santa Anita I was drawn right away to Buzz of New York. I went back and forth because she'd just lost at this 2nd level for the second time. But then I read Brad Free's analysis - I put a lot of faith in his comments. Not only had she come off the layoff last time out but had a world of trouble and STILL finished second. He liked her....I liked her. Dueled into the lane and then put that rival away to draw off in hand.
Time for the featured Gr 3 Santa Ysabel and I liked Bob Baffert's unbeaten filly Fazia. I did look to try and beat her, but that looked to be a hopeless task unless something unforeseen happened. She pressed the pace from the get-go and turning for home was surrounded by rivals. For just a moment I had some concerns but then at the furlong pole she took command and drew off powerfully. Listening to the post-race comments there were several remarks how that is "her thing," always battles and always draws off with determination. Topped off a good week! Next week is Tampa Bay Derby Day on Saturday!
The Week's Racing Highlights (March 1 - 5)
Social Media this week.....
My good buddy from teaching days, Jeff Nelson, has a daughter who is so cute and we are FB friends. Pretty sure she had a "bad" break-up from what seemed to be a serious relationship as she suddenly left her job as a DJ in Georgia to return to Orlando and no pics of "the boy" since. Well, this week she posted some pics and her "new do" hair style was a pretty, light-blonde. I commented and got a return message :)
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