The original plan for this weekend was to drive over to the west coast of Florida and spend the weekend in Tampa while attending the Tampa Bay Derby Festival at Tampa Bay Downs. But once Keith's knee issues had progressed worse and he headed back to his Midwest home and then plans were made for our oldest son Jeff to bring his family to visit, along with our daughter driving down from Orlando....well, all bets were off. So I watched races from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center." It was an excellent week at Gulfstream as I had multiple winners EVERY day of the week, and while I can't say it with certainty because I've not kept track for JUST Gulfstream results, but I'd guess this had to be the very best single week of racing I've had since the winter season started in December AT Gulfstream. Here's how it all unfolded...... On Wednesday I won with my first bet of the week in a similar fashion that I'd won one of the last bets last week when noting that you have to use all the tools at your disposal when handicapping races. In the 2nd I made note that DRF analyst for So Fla Mike Welsch typically is not any better or worse at handicapping the races and so he typically has little influence on my bets. But I noted the one really strong suit for him as an analyst is his work with morning works. So in this maiden claiming race for 3yo he noted that Turn On The Charm was first off the claim for a barn 26% with those - things you can see in the Form. But then he noted that this guy had worked in company with another horse in his most recent work, and THAT horse was also first off the claim AND he'd come off the claim to win. Third into the far turn he made a bold sweeping move around horse to take command. I thought he moved too early but he had enough to hold on for the win.
Everybody and their brother had Absolute Grit as their "Best" and a single in the multi-race bets in R6, as did I But has so often been the case this winter, down to defeat at 2/5 odds, wow. But in the 7th, my final bet of the day on returning James Aloysius, he was taking a lot of money not only in the WIN pools but also in the multi-race payoffs so I upped the bet. Battled between horses through the lane and edged clear late. With the triple investment I cashed for enough to make the 2-for-4 day a profitable one!
Thursday I had my first win with a Todd Pletcher runner who was dropping into a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event. Oh my - Mr. Pletcher must have determined that Outperform no longer was a fit for his quality stable and was looking to pick up the win and ship him out. Big move on the turn over the synthetic surface and drew off late.
Came right back in a MSW for 3yo with Khozieress who had rallied from the back to be second in a maiden optional claiming event on Opening Day. But as a Fla-bred he'd run under MSW conditions, so the start today in a MSW for state-breds was the same class level. Today he went right to the front under journeyman Lionel Reyes - who's have a sensational meet considering all the "big name" riders in town - and scored easily.
Friday was an excellent day! I passed the first two and then ran 2nd at 9/5 in the third with a minimum play. In the fourth it was a first level allowance for 3yo sprinting five furlongs on the grass. All kinds of things COULD happen, but Ship The Goods had the proto-type look of an entry level winner. He'd won at first asking then ran sharply at this level and distance last time out. Irad for Christophe Clement. Pressed the pace into the lane, dueled for command and edged clear late. AND was generous 2/1 price so I collected $30 on my first winner.
My pick scratched out of the fifth and I passed the sixth. The seventh was a "prime time" investment for me on Chad Brown's Signal From Noise. She'd debuted with a sharp 2nd then came back to win by nine lengths at this same one-turn mile in New York. In her first try in allowance company she was a best of the rest second behind Todd Pletcher's talented Classy Edition who had come back to win the Grade 3 Royal Delta here two weeks ago. Tracked a trio of front runners to the turn, drew off as much the best and I collected nearly $40 on my big bet.
Funny story.....after watching Signal From Noise win I, for some reason thought I was done for the day. A little bit later I was thinking in my head how much I'd profited today and wasn't sure. So I logged back into my Xpressbet and pulled up my Win-Loss statement. The profit for the day seemed too high and I looked up the page to see I'd gone 3-for-4 on the day. No, wait....I only had two wins from three bets, right? I'd made all my bets up front because I'd not slept well last night and was afraid I'd nod off on the family room sofa and miss a bet. I looked it up - oh, wow. I DID have another bet in the 8th on the turf where I liked Chad Brown's Euro import Dr. Zempf for long-time client Peter Brant. Listed at an absurd 50/1 in the early DRF morning line he went off at 9/5 and won for fun. Cashed for another near $30 to close out a most amazing day at the races :)
Saturday was the big day and I'd handicapped not only Tampa & Gulfstream, but also had some picks from Aqueduct, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita. I scored in the opener at Tampa where Tap First paid over $7. Had to survive a bogus claim of foul after moving off the rail and drawing clear but when official I thought I would be off to a big day. In the second at Gulfstream I went back and forth about betting my choice because he was cold on the board. In the end I thought I would regret it if he won. Made the front, dueled the length of the stretch and WON at 9/1 odds. Then the INQUIRY light went up. Showed a head-on view, no. Even the analysts on TVG network commented there was very little reason to make a change. Taken down. WOW. That hurts. A little while later the "obvious" 2/5 choice at Gulfstream ran second. Double WOW. But finally got back on the board in the fourth at Gulfstrfeam, a turf sprint under $35K "beaten" conditions. Beantown Baby was 6-for-18 lifetime and 6-for-13 in turf sprints. Dropped to this level last time out off a six month break she'd been 2nd in a 3-way photo. Any kind of improvement and she'd win. Slipped up the inside in mid-stretch and edged clear at better than 2/1 to allow me to cash for nearly $35 - that helps.
Ran 2nd at 1/5 at Gulfstream next out with a Todd Pletcher "obvious" pick to kick off a string of five losses, but then finally I turned the corner. The 8th at Tampa was the Grade 3 Challenger Stakes and Skippylongstocking had run a huge 106 Beyer winning the Gr 3 Harlan's Holiday two back at this distance. Was willing to forgive his try in the $4 Million Gr 1 Pegasus World Cup, from which not one but two runners had exited to win Grade 1 races. Pressed the leader from the start, took over midway on the turn and drew clear late. I cashed my triple investment for over $20.
Missed at GP and Oaklawn before winning back-to-back stakes where in BOTH I upped the bet! In the Grade 2 Hillsborough at Tampa, on the turf I upped the bet on Chad Brown's Shantisara. Pressed the pace through the turn, dueled in the lane, then in the final furlong edged clear. My "prime time" play led to a $40 payoff. Then in the "BEST of the Day," Bill Mott's Frank's Rockette looked to make short work of the field in Gulfstream's featured Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie. Patiently handled to the turn she swept by without being asked and drew off by double digit lengths while geared down. Collected over $40 again!
Missed at Oaklawn before winning two in a row, again! The miss at Oaklawn was with a horse I own, Classic Cut who was making his career debut. There had been a lot of hype about how good he could be but he ran dully after making a bid on the far turn. Not impressed. Next up was the eighth at Aqueduct, an allowance event going a one-turn mile. Celestial Moon wore down the leader nearing the wire at a generous 4/1 to win with my minimum bet. Then I tripled the bet at Gulfstream in their 9th, an allowance event on the turf. Far Bridge had rallied from far back to win impressively on debut, but the colt he'd narrowly beaten, Carl Spackler had come back last week with a "WOW" kind of win. That seemed to solidify that Far Bridge could be something special. In traffic into the stretch he wove through horses, got clear at the furlong marker and drew off in ultra-impressive style This guy is likely to surface in a stakes next time out.
Missed in Tampa's Gr 3 Florida Oaks before scoring in the Aqueduct feature. Rossa Veloce had won three of her last four with big Beyers. AND she was an impressive 6-for-12 at Aqueduct. Right to the front, took pressure to the top of the stretch then drew off handily.
Now it was time for the national feature, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. All the talk was about Todd Pletcher's exciting 3yo Tapit Trice. He'd won on debut then drew away from his favored stable mate by nearly ten lengths out last time. He would be a very short price, but he might be something really special. He'd had "issues" getting away from the gate in his first two, and did so again today. Near the back to the backside he moved up but was still in the back half of a bulky field approaching the turn. Looked to being ridden hard without making up too much ground he finally got going but was wide. Into the lane, still near the back he wasn't in the picture at the furlong pole. And then a blur of gray as he blew by to win going away in a very impressive style. He'll only get better going longer. Now Todd Pletcher has the 2yo BC Juvenile champ Forte and Taprit Twice as two of the likely favorites for the Run For The Roses on the first Saturday in May!
Closed the day down with a win at Santa Anita (lost their feature, the Gr 1 Beholder Mile after leading the length of the stretch to be nailed on the wire). The final day of the week saw me with my BET of the Week on the page! Sunday started off in an "interesting" way. My top two choices dueled down the lane with my second choice edging clear late, but my rider, Irad Ortiz had noticeably checked in mid-stretch. I told my wife Kim "There will be an INQUIRY here," and there was. As soon as they showed the head-on, it was soooooo obvious that the unofficial winner had come out into my horse and pushed him out several paths while they dueled through the lane. An "obvious DQ" and even more so given how they had taken down my 9/1 winner on Saturday when the infraction was FAR less. "No change" was the announcement. W-O-W. No bet in the second, but my top choice won and paid $6. Sigh. The third was my "BET of the Week!" Check out my analysis.
I truly was expecting to see a "WOW" kind of race where I'd say this guy is something special. He tracked the 7/1 front runner into the turn, being very confidently ridden. As they begun to spin into the stretch my jockey asked and immediately A La Carte was on event terms - ready to run by the front runner wasn't caving in. They dueled, but it was clear to me that my rider really wasn't pushing for the very best. In the final 16th, just "too much pony" as Announcer Pete called it and I had my big win. GO ME!
Came right back to win in the fifth on the turf when I went with a Todd Pletcher colt trying the turf for the first time in a 3yo MSW. Irad had him in the clear through the turn and then blew by to win going away at a nice $7 payoff so I cashed for $35. Missed with the next two, opted NOT to bet my pick in the 9th when he floated up to 9/1 from a 7/2 morning line. Set the pace to the turn and stopped - good call Mr. Mark. And in the finale I was 9th at 5/2 with another Pletcher turf runner that ironically was Gulfstream Handicapper Ron Nicoletti's "BEST" and he'd singled in the multi-race wagers. Gulfstream this year.....you never know. BUT despite the continued parade of double-digit payoffs, check out how I did this week here:
That's right - it was a BANNER Week! I leave Wednesday for Ohio to visit the family. And on Saturday I'll be driving to the Cincinnati area to visit our good friends Mary Pat & Tom for an overnight stay, so I'll play some races online. Back the following Tuesday to gear up for the Louisiana Derby and then the Florida Derby to close out the winter season on April 1st!
Tampa Bay Derby Week Highlights
Social Media this week.....
This week the limited social media contacts came from my "CBS-4 gal-pals" Lauren & Karli. Yes, Karli had left and it had been a month since she'd been seen on social media. I reached out to her and asked if everything was ok, to just let us know she was good and happy. She replied the next day :)
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