Monday, February 27, 2023

Week 13

 February 22 - 26:  Gulfstream Park Sprint Weekend

It was a bittersweet week of racing as my good buddy, and racing pal Keith decided to head back to the midwest about six weeks early to take care of his injured knee.  Always look forward to having my good friend stay with us each winter, and especially enjoy his company at the winter racing meet.  But, from a racing stand point I had two excellent days at Gulfstream and had at least one winner every day of the week - and for THIS season, that's unusual.  Here's how the week played out......

On Wednesday I only had three selections as I once again tried to be a little more mindful of the "longshot factor" that continues to play out this winter.  It wasn't until the 6th that I had a selection and I wasn't all that confident in what looked to be prohibitive favorite Spicy Ginger.  She was 7/5 in the program and went off at 3/5.  Opened a daylight lead turning for home but was run down in the final two hundred yards.  The next selection came in the 8th, and entry level allowance for 3yo going seven furlongs.  Like so many other races this winter I wasn't going to be surprised if this event produced a double-digit payoff, BUT UNLIKE most, this one might because you could make a case for several of the runners.  What separated Flakes from the rest for me was that she debuted with a professional, off the pace score at first asking in a MOC event where she competed under state-bred MSW conditions.  Immediately she was thrown into the deep end of the pool to face rivals in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes AND she broke slowly AND was seven wide.  Toss.  Back into state-bred company today and into allowance ranks.  Sat off the pace, swung five wide into the stretch and mowed them down.  The best news - she was let go at a generous 9/2 price and I cashed for nearly $30 making today a winning one despite running fifth in the final selection of the day.

Thursday was a remarkable day, especially for THIS winter's racing results.  First, despite trying to be more conservative, I had SIX betting selections from the nine races.  Right off the bat in the opener, a MOC going eight and a half on the turf I had R Rose' All Day.  You COULD make a case to go against her but really only because (a) she'd be a short price and (b) because she had six starts already.  But for me, that only two starts had been on grass negated the latter.  Sent out by leading trainer Saffie Joseph she looked to be in a good spot.  Pressed a 9/1 front runner into the stretch through slow fractions and edged clear in the final 16th to score at 9/5.  

The fifth was my next bet and it looked a lot like the first play of the week - a short priced favorite that probably should win but I didn't have the utmost confidence in.  Spy Novel was going first off the claim for Joseph and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  Likely to be overbet, but clearly the two turf tries this 3yo filly had had were the best efforts on the page.  The "issue" was she'd been claimed out of a win for a mere $25K in maiden claiming company.  Still.....sat behind th leaders to the top of the stretch, slid three-wide into the clear and ran off.  There were TWO objections and TWO inquiries - one each against my winning pick....both denied :)

After running fourth at 9/5 in the sixth I had a pick in an older, starter optional claiming event going two turns over the synthetic track with Journeytothemoon.  Seemed obvious that either 'Journey or her rival Jazzy T would win - on paper.  I made the pick based on the fact that the top choice had won four of her last six (with two second place finishes) and hand finished in front of her rival twice.  Sat fifth into the turn, swept up five wide and drew off.  WHOOOO HOOOOO - three wins on the day!

Of all the picks today I thought I had the best chance, at a fair price on Rudder's Men in the 8th, a 3yo allowance as this one was a Todd Pletcher layoff runner.  But no dice, ran third at 3/2 while the winner paid a whopping $102.40 for a $2 bet.  YOWZA.  In the day's finale, a MOC turf route for 3yo I thought you could make a case for at least three of the runners.  I settled on Not Even Then who was a second time starter for trainer Jerimiah Englehart.  In her debut she trailed the field against open MSW rivals and made an "OK" late run to get with four of the winner while earning the fastest Beyer figure in the field.  That was enough to earn a bet in a wide open field for me.  Stalked in fifth to the turn, swung five wide to the front turning for home and drew off by daylight.  The best news here.....despite being 3/1 in the program the bettors let her go at a big 5/1 and change.  Paid $13.60 allowing me to cash for nearly $35 on my FOURTH WIN of the day!


Friday I had five picks.  I probably could have easily narrowed it down to two, or maybe even one but I didn't.  I ran a non-threatening fifth in the opener, third at 7/2 in the 2nd - and in both those races, leading rider Irad Ortiz was on the winner and they paid $12 and $13 - wow.  Was 4/1 in the 4th and I thought I'd won the head-bobbing photo, only to be an oh-so-close 2nd in a photo to a $19.80 winner.  Ran fifth at a 6/1 price when Irad brought home his third as the 9/5 choice.  Then in the one race I felt most confident in (and bet the most money) I went against the popular lone speed.  I just thought that Irad, again, would have Saffie Joseph's Freedom Matters in a pressing spot.  Did, but the fractions were glacial and the front runner cut the corner into the lane.  But Ortiz confidently hand rode him with encouragement and pushed by late so I cashed out for nearly $33.

Saturday:  Rebel Stakes Day

Keith and I headed out to the races, in what will be our final trip to the track together this winter, for the racing action.  In the photo at right above, Kim and I had met Keith at Oaklawn when we visited there for our second Arkansas Derby Day weekend getaway - this photo was on the Friday prior when we went out for Apple Blossom Day.  For our final Saturday at GP I debated about how many tracks to play and searched all the entries looking for what might be good cards to play.  But in the end I settled on just the local races at Gulfstream, the big Rebel Stakes Day card in Hot Springs and some races from Aqueduct in New York.  The first bet at Gulfstream was the third, an entry level allowance.  It was a seven furlong, state-bred sprint and while I didn't really want to take a short price - especially THIS winter at Gulfstream, Slim Slow Slider looked "good enough" for a minimum play (especially since I WAS there to watch the races).  He'd run best-of-the-rest 2nd in three straight going a one-turn mile at this level and seemed worthy of one more chance.  He pressed the front runner to the top of the stretch - dueled the length of the stretch and just when it looked like he'd settle for second, again, he had one final surge....PHOTO FINISH.  Very fortunate to have somehow gotten a whisker in front on the mythical wire.  Cashed for a little over eleven dollars with my favorite teller Kimberly.

Missed on a NY race and one from Oaklawn before it was time for the third at Aqueduct, the co-featured Gander Stakes for 3yo fillies.  It came down to last out impressive winner, Maker's Candy, or Chad Brown's Neural Network.  The former had the faster speed figures but was facing winners for the first time.  'Network had won on debut then tried open stakes company last time out in the Jerome Stakes.  I thought the class drop would prove to be the difference.  'Candy got the jump on my pick into the lane, but at the 1/8th pole it looked like I was wearing her down.  Couldn't seem to get by but in the final several jumps it appeared to me that my rider Manny Franco had had to steady slightly.  And as I watched the initial replay through the stretch I wondered if just maybe Maker's Candy had floated out through the lane bothering my filly.  Moments later, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets there has been an objection and the INQUIRY sign has been posted regarding the run through the stretch!"  I made my next set of bets while the stewards' views were replayed in four replay screens simultaneously and found Keith sitting in the Silks Simulcast area (bad knee, couldn't walk around).  I told him, "You see that?  She's comin' down and I'm a winner!"  Sure enough, I was put up and had my first stakes win of the day.  Missed on the next two before the fourth at Aqueduct where Lastchanceforglory was my pick.  He'd been claimed out of SEVEN STRAIGHT races, and nine of his last eleven.  Led into the lane, was headed - which is usually the end of the story for a thoroughbred - but he battled back, surged inside the final two-hundred yards and got up to win.  The big $6.80 payoff let me cash for nearly $35 and was worthy of the first "winning ticket photo op" of the day!



Missed on two straight triple investments when 2nd at 3/2 at Oaklawn where I led to the final jump and third at 8/5 there where my "other" pick won.  The seventh at Gulfstream was next, a seven furlong sprint for starter optional claiming runners.  There was no question as to where Saffie Joseph's Concrete Glory would be - on the front end.  CLEARLY the fastest early and with the best speed figures.  BUT, today he'd have to last seven furlongs and he'd been running at six lately.  Easily made the lead, whistled through the turn and entered the stretch with a daylight lead.  The closers were coming, but the wire came first and he was a handy winner at 4/5 with my double investment on board.

Ran close seconds in two of the next four (with a third and a fifth) before it was time for the Gulfstream feature, the Gulfstream Park Sprint - a $125K race at six panels.  I had found it interesting that on the "Gulfstream Today" show on Thursday, during the "Lightning Round" the GP analysts had previewed this key event and BOTH had said "NOBODY beats Candy Man Rocket on Saturday."  So when I opened the past performances I expected him to leap off the page as the "obvious" short priced winner.  But this was NOT the case.  He DID look like the winner, but far from a hands down type.  But when the betting opened and he was taking a LOT of money, and was a short priced pick in all the multi-race payoffs I upped the bet and made HIM the "BET of the Day" for today.  The front runner burst out of the gate and was at least half a dozen clear heading into the far turn.  My rider was sitting chilly in third and I wondered if he was waiting too long.  Then he shook the reins and the response was immediate.  By the time they were spinning out of the turn and turning for home I was inhaling the front runner and had not even been asked for my best.  Ran off as easily the winner.  And in spite of all the early money, somehow the crown let him slip up to 7/5 and I cashed for almost $50 on my BEST of the day.  WHOOOO HOOOOO - obviously time for another "winning ticket photo op!"


Yes indeedy Mac McCreedy, I HAD that one!

Less than fifteen minutes after the race was official it was time for the co-featured Stymie Stakes from New York.  I faced an "interesting" dilemma here.  Trainer Jamie Ness, always one of the country's leading win trainers in the country, but with mostly claiming and allowance types, was based at Parx in Philadelphia.  And when he claims a horse they usually "move up" substantially, but Repo Rocks looked like one of those that you had to wonder what was in the feed tub that Ness was supplying to this guy!  He'd been a useful type who could run in the mid-80's on the Beyer scale but first off the claim he'd blown out a field with a 96 Beyer.  Came right back to blow out another Parx field with a nearly identical 97 Beyer.  Then shipped here to NY to win the Grade 3 Toboggen with a Grade 1-like 111 Beyer figure.  Oh my.  I sincerely doubted he'd run back to that, but if he duplicated his previous two he'd be a handy winner.  It was also a plus that the regular rider from Parx came along and he had a massive 57% win average on his limited NY mounts.  "Go with the flow" I thought.  From the very beginning it looked like my jockey wanted to be outside and in the clear but his fellow riders had him pinned on the rail and behind runners through the far turn.  Might be too late I thought as the second choice got the jump turning for home - and he was the DRF Best Bet of the Day.  But finally a seam opened, Repo Rocks shot through into the clear, on the outside and drew off mirroring his previous three races.  Impressive regardless of why he'd suddenly improved....shame on you for not betting what was right in front of you in the Racing Form as I cashed for another $20 and change.

Ran third in the 11th at Gulfstream in what I INITIALLY thought was my final bet of the day locally.  Now what do you mean by that?  So, typically on Saturdays when I head out to Gulfstream I put together a spread sheet with my picks and those of the three public handicappers.  Then I keep track of how I do compared to them.  This year in particular NOBODY does well and ironically I'd decided NOT to do this for today.  But, I'd done my handicapping for Sunday on Friday - because I was playing only three tracks Saturday - so I had nothing to occupy my time on the porch Saturday morning.  So I put together my sheet.  I had picks through all eleven races in my column but when I began to fill in the picks for Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti, his BEST BET was in Race 12.  Wait, what?  I don't have an analysis for Race 12, did I miss a race?  I DID.  I pulled up the past performances and indeed, Chad Brown's Carl Spackler just LEAPED off the page.  In his debut on the turf, like today, he'd closed with a rush to be second in a photo with an impressive 88 Beyer figure.  That would win by a pole here.  So when I printed out my picks for the day I added this one and told Keith not to get all wound up because there wasn't an analysis - a running joke between us - and explained.  When I went to the track I debated about which of my three triple investment picks I'd make my BEST Bet.  I decided against my choice in the eighth (where I ran 2nd at 6/5) and opted to make it Candy Man Rocket.  Here in the finale the rider had a ton of horse while third into the far turn.  Without taking a deep breath and with the rider motionless the Chad Brown runner swept by and DID win by a pole.  He was a miniscule 1/5 at post time and while "the most impressive winner" for sure on the day, it was a wide choice by me to make Candy Man Rocket the "best" because the difference of the payoffs was $4.80 vs. $2.40 - that choice DOUBLED my net return.  Sometimes I'm so clever!  AND for the second time this week, I'd nailed FOUR winners at Gulfstream (and a 3rd photo op on the day!)  Quite the accomplishment THIS season my friends.


Make it FOUR WINS for the SECOND TIME this week :)

I had two late bets, the two feature races at Oaklawn as Keith and I headed home.  In the Rebel Stakes an upset winner got the 50 Derby qualifying points while I ran fifth.  But the story of the day in Hot Springs was in the previous race, the Grade 3 Honeybee for 3yo fillies.  I liked Brad Cox's filly Wet Paint.  She'd won the prep for this, the Martha Washington Stakes when rallying from off the pace despite slow fractions.  And with So Cal-based rider Flavian Prat here - obviously to ride her - she was my triple investment pick.  We got home and I pulled up the replay.  The gate latch sprung open and immediately my filly was squeezed back to last.  WOW.  Down the backstretch she made up some ground while riding the rails but approaching the turn the horses in front of her were simply running evenly and she could not get out.  Desperate to run through the turn, STILL trapped.  But approaching the top of the lane she finally got a seam.  Too little too late it appeared,   But then with a burst she suddenly went from near the back to fourth and had dead aim on the leaders.  Split rivals at the sixteenth pole and won by daylight, going away.  ULTRA-IMPRESSIVE....may have found my Kentucky Oaks filly.

Sunday I was going to be able to watch all my picks before Keith took us out to dinner to thank Kim and I for our hospitality.  As the racing day began I had six selections on the day and I thought I had two really good chances.  2nd at 2/1 in the opener, then in the second - the first of my "confident picks" I broke dead last, rallied to the front and still looked like a winner at 4/5 until nailed late by a $52. upset winner.  WOW.  Lost with not one but two Todd Pletcher 3yo maidens when 5th and 2nd.  Finally got a win when Fly The W proved again how much he loves the synthetic surface as he won for the 6th time in 13 starts over the Tapeta as the even money choice.  And closed out the day when second with my "other confident play."

Still for the week I finished 11-for-27 at Gulfstream - that's over 40% for those of you without a calculator....and at GP this winter, I'm very happy with that!

Week 13 Racing Highlights



Social Media this week.............

After not having any contact with any of my "social media gal-pals" last week I was back into the swing this week.....

I've been a big fan, and follower, and social media friend to CBS-4's Lauren Pastrana since she was a morning reporter - moved up to morning anchor, then weekend anchor before becoming full time evening anchor.  And she's always attractive no matter the outfit.  But she has always just "popped" when she's in green.  So Monday she was on air with a green outfit and I took a quick photo and sent it along with a message.  Again, while on the air minutes after I reached out to her she "liked it" and replied :)
When I worked with my son Jeff at Oasis High I made several new friends, one of the best being Kenny Kellner, who was father to our quarterback.  We began to have dinner with him regularly the last month or so every Thursday evening and when his wife Allison came to town, she'd join us.  She and I became Facebook friends and it was her birthday this week, so we exchanged messages.
Channel 10 morning anchor Jayce Birch always posts her "fashion pics" - especially with her heels.  And she loves to show off her good looks.  So, as a guy I often let her know that she's appreciated and I always get at least a "like" back.
If I had to choose, and had to name ONLY one girl as my very favorite former student I'd be very hard pressed to choose between long-time gal-pal Kimmy and Tatiana.  And if someone put a gun to my head and made me pick one, it would be Kimmy only because we "chat" via text often and when she lived locally I saw her at least once or twice a year.  Tatiana is every bit as sweet, every bit as attractive and every bit as much my "most favorite.  So when a FB memory popped up of us when she helped me with WISE recruiting I texted her and she replied back.
Finally, this may have been the "most appreciated" social media exchange of the week.  Right after Candy Man Rocket scored as my BEST Bet at Gulfstream I headed into the Silks Simulcast area where my favorite teller,  Kimberly, is positioned when I looked up at the TV screens.  There was one of my favorite gal-pal handicappers, Acacia Courtney.  She had been a regular, featured handicapper here at Gulfstream for several years and I'd messaged with her often.  AND more than once she'd posed for a picture with me (making my day!).  It could be because she got married to a NY-based trainer but I also think that some of the changes at GP may have precipitated her signing a contract with the New York broadcast group, "America's Day At The Races."  Any way, she was on the screen so I snapped a pic, sent her a message and told her I missed her being here.  Less than five minutes later she reacted ("liked") my message.  I honestly did value her handicapping opinions....but to be fair, she was easy to look at each and every day :)





No comments:

Post a Comment

Gulfstream Week 18

 Florida Derby Week March 27 - 30 It is "closing week" for my Winter Racing Season, culminated with the huge Florida Derby Day adv...