March 9 - 13
I briefly considered driving over to Tampa for their big day a couple of weeks ago but when I looked at tickets available, all that was left was General Admission which meant standing all day. Then I noted that here at Gulfstream there was a graded stakes, so I enjoyed spending the Saturday at the races at Gulfstream - not too many of those Saturdays left. Here's how the whole week played out....
I think that the appropriate theme for the week would be it was "Odds-On" week as nearly every winner I had for the five days was a very short priced favorite. Hard to make money that way, but if you follow my racing you know that the odds do NOT determine who I bet....I play who I think is the likely winner with enough of an edge for me to win that makes it worth playing. On Wednesday I missed on the first four as I was surprised to find five bets on the abbreviated eight-race card. I originally planned to make Sayyaaf a double investment in the final bet of the day, but the more I looked at him and listened to the comments online he just seemed all, ALL alone on the front end going the five furlong trip on the turf. Right to the front, had company to the turn then let it out a notch and was long gone - at 1/5.
On Thursday I only had three bets on the nine race program. In the second, a starter allowance going a one-turn mile I thought Mish had enough of an edge to play, but only for the minimum. He was a Saffie Joseph runner who was stretching out from sprint distances to this longer dirt race, and he had a nice outside draw. Right to the front and widened with each stride through the lane...the easiest of winners, but at a lowly 8/5 price.
The rains had washed off the races to the all weather but my picks were on the sloppy main track so it didn't matter. In the fifth it was a Maiden Special event going seven furlongs and I liked Chad Brown's Equal Pay in here. The filly had earned a field best 80 Beyer last time out when just missing at this same distance at Saratoga when flying on the front end. She dueled in her second start and then stopped to lose by more than 30 lengths. Ouch. It helped from my handicapping perspective that despite this and the layoff the program made her the 7/5 favorite. And another angle was that this was a "3 and up" MSW. The first of these had come last week, but they were all older runners. Here, Brown's 4yo filly was facing mostly sophomores. When two scratched out leaving only four in the field I upped the bet. Right to the front and jockey Irad Ortiz never moved as she ran away impressively.
Missed in the final bet when Face of Victory pulled up at even money. And I missed on all five bets on Friday - sigh. But clearly the highlight of the week came Thursday night when I took my grandson Oliver to his first hockey game. The excitement he had before, during and after the game was well worth the price of admission!
Saturday was the big day in Tampa, and I had picks from not only Tampa & Gulfstream but from Oaklawn and the Fair Grounds. It was interesting that in Oaklawn on Friday they'd had multiple inches of snow.....clear today but a brisk 40 degrees. Missed when 2nd and 3rd on the first two bets, both minimum plays then saw Cajun Cassanova go wire-to-wire at Tampa for my first win - at 3/5. Missed when 2nd, 3rd, and a distant 9th before winning at 1/5 at the Fair Grounds (you see the "Odds-On" theme in play?). My biggest "WIN" of the first half of the day came in the 5th at Tampa where Todd Pletcher's Commandperformance looked to be my best bet of the day in a maiden event as he was exiting sharp performances in back-to-back Grade 1 events - as a maiden - in his final two juvenile starts. I walked up to "my twin," Karen and said, "$20 to win on #8 at Tampa." She looked up and said, "Which race?" I replied the fifth and she shook her head. Looked over at the monitor and they were running through the first turn. Couldn't get the bet. He was a miniscule 1-9 favorite, and ran second! I WIN! I got my third win in Oaklawn's third when Seiche was an impressive winner despite coming off a nearly year-long layoff.
So as we were now at about 3:30 in the afternoon it was approaching post time for the featured 7th at Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie. I was inside to watch Oaklawn's fourth when I looked out the windows - oh my......
Just POURING! So the horses kept circling in the sheltered paddock enclosure. And so I had plenty of time to watch We The People in his allowance try in Hot Springs. He'd been a decisive maiden winner with a big Beyer figure. He looked to maybe be a Derby kind of horse, especially if he were impressive today first time winners around two turns. He pressed the pace to the far turn, took off and ran off so easily.
The rain lessened and the horses headed to the track for the Gr 3 feature. I was surprised to see that in this short field the crowd was NOT making Bill Mott's Obligatory the short-priced favorite. She had been my UPSET Special on the Kentucky Oaks undercard in the Grade 2 Eight Bells. She blew by the field from the back at a huge 16/1 price that day and I cashed for nearly $175. The only concern here was if she was cranked up fully off the layoff, with obviously bigger targets down the road. Settled in towards the back to the turn, moved up effortlessly then made her move. By the furlong pole she was in full stride and blew by under a hand ride to win going away over the wet going.
What was also interesting was it was 90 degrees before the rains came, and now it was in the upper 60's! Two wins in a row and maybe, just maybe I'm on a roll now. The eighth at Gulfstream was scheduled to me a mile and three-eighths on the turf, but obviously that was rained off to the all-weather...and now it would go a mile and a half. Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet was here in Megayacht and I had planned to triple the bet. Looked at the pools and he was being well bet in all the multi-race pools and the win pool. I kept the bet the same. Stalked the pace all the way saving ground. Made his move at the furlong pole and blew by in the final fifty yards.
Make it three in a row. At the Fair Grounds 1-2 favorite Bron and Brow wired the fifth in an entry level allowance for three-year-olds. And topped off the five race win streak in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa where to two Chad Brown fillies dueled through the lane with 3/1 Dolce Zel getting the better of the favored Spicer on the wire and I cashed for $40.
Off the board in three straight and then it was time for the "big one" at Tampa, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Classic Causeway had won the prep for this, the Grade 3 Sam Davis dueling from the gate to the top of the lane through fast fractions a month ago before pulling away impressively. I told Keith as we talked about the field prior to the race, he IS the best colt in here IF he doesn't bounce. If he runs back to that last or improves it's all over. And if I'm the connections I take the Derby points and await the first Saturday in May. Today NOBODY went with him on the lead and it was all over before they came out of the Clubhouse Turn. I'd tripled the bet to score on my ninth and final winner of the day.
Sunday at Gulfstream I had five picks from the eleven races, three of which were minimum plays. I went with a Todd Pletcher 3/1 runner to try and upset the favorite in the opener, third. A colt who moved into the Pletcher barn off a sharp last out try at Churchill, Green Up was my "best" in Hallandale and he rolled as much the best at 2/5 odds. I also played three out-of-town favorites and one with two of them.....stakes winner Princess Kokachin was allowed to be the second choice in a five horse field at 6/5 and won by daylight; then Edgeway won the Grade 3 Las Flores as the prohibitive favorite.
A good week overall, and we'll be back at it on Wednesday as we look forward to next Saturday which has several stakes but no "big ones."
Tampa Bay Derby Day Highlights
Social Media......
On Monday my favorite two gal-pal anchors were together and Karli reached out to me after I messaged them both. Note, again, she did so while on air :)
The next day I wrote a note to Karli telling her how much I thought of her and her work on the desk, and she wrote me a nice note back.
And then Channel 10 morning news anchor posted her fashion photo and added she was having a chocolate chip cookie with coffee :)
Finally, on Saturday "our girl" Acacia Courtney was back to handicapping at Gulfstream after taking a week off to get married :)
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