In the finale, only my second play of the day I was a distant 7th at 8/5. Friday we had another nine race program and I had four races that I liked. It wasn't like I was reaching or looking for "value" as my four picks went off at 4/5, 2/5, 6/5, and 3/5 - and I didn't have a single winner! Two thirds and two seconds. So, heading into the weekend and a day at the races I was a meager 1-for-8. I guess I SHOULD have figured that the Saturday would go better, but with the races carded not only locally but around the country being suspect at best I didn't have high hopes for a big day.
The first thing about Saturday that was NOT good was when I completed handicapping of the four tracks I wanted to play on the day, I had two bets at the beginning of the afternoon's racing around 12:30 and then nothing until after 2 pm. And in to that fact that from the first race on my sheet at 12:30 until they were in the gate for the SIXTH at Gulfstream a little after 3 pm I had gone 1-for-6 and that winner had been a prohibitive 1/5 favorite. Again, NOT what I am used to for handicapping and being at the races! The first and only win through this first segment was in a Maiden Optional Claimer for 3yo. Not a single Pletcher or Brown runner, BUT Saffie Joseph was sending out Vive Bien who had debuted at Tampa and earned a whopping 86 Beyer. That figure would win nearly every maiden event carded at the Championship Meet. Irad Ortiz was taking over today and the only concern was working out a trip from the rail. Broke cleanly and immediately assumed the lead. Was a big concerned when the opening quarter went in a rapid :21 and change, and even more when the first half mile was a sizzling :44 and change. But all the while the filly seemed well within herself and Irad had yet to ask as they turned for home. Maintained the daylight margin and won, as expected, for fun.
In the five losses I hit the board ONCE when second, but I was 5th twice, 7th, and 8th in the others and much like the Friday selections all with runners that should have run better based on the odds (2/1, 8/5, 8/5, 7/5, and 3/5). The sixth at Gulfstream was the first of their three listed stakes events, this being the Any Limit for 3yo fillies. All lightly raced, the question was who would run back to their big maiden win? Spirit Wind was my pick off her second start 15 1/2 length romp. Any runner that wins by that kind of margin has to have SOME ability. And she drew high praise for how visually impressive she had been. I made her a minimum bet because of the many questions about her and the others. Right to the front, and again through sizzling splits but was easily best at 6/5 odds.
The Laurel card today featured multiple listed stakes on their "Pot O'Gold Day" program and the first one that I cashed on was in the Not For Love Stakes. The defending champion program favorite - and a deserving one - was Whereshetoldmetogo. When last seen he disappointed in the Dave's Friend Stakes on Dec 26th at 3/2 odds. But here was the thing.....he was 13-for-32 lifetime; a huge 6-for-9 locally; and perhaps biggest of all, ALL FOUR WINS showing in his pp's had come when returning from a layoff....like he was doing today, which supported the barn's big 31% win-off-the-layoff figures. Yet from the opening of the betting, another horse, Jaxon Traveller was the short priced favorite. He had won four of his first five starts as a 2yo and then 3yo. But after a win and a close third in late summer/early fall, he'd come off a layoff and run three races that resulted in declining speed figures and he didn't rate even a mention in my analysis. Certainly, I thought, the money will even out the odds, but they never did. 'Jaxon went right to the front while my pick was near the back. I swooped on through the turn and drew on even terms turning for home. They dueled to inside the 16th pole, and then Whereshetoldmetogo edged clear. And the best part, at a generous 3/1 price! Cashed for over $40! Whooo hooo!
The prices were no longer posted before I cashed my first ticket at Aqueduct in New York when Tin Pan Alley scored as the favorite with my triple investment on him. After a miss at the Fair Grounds I scored with Igloo in a turf sprint at Gulfstream. I liked him as he exited a super-KEY race, but only for the minimum. But he was the DRF Best Bet of the day and all the other public handicappers liked him. Looked at the multi-race pools and he was favored in all of them so I upped the bet. Right to the front, looked ready to spurt away turning for home but a 70/1 longshot came to him and they dueled to inside the sixteenth pole before he scored.
I had now won four of my last six and was enjoying the day a lot more than earlier! The best story, by far on the day came in the next race at Gulfstream. It was a Maiden Special for 3yo going a one-turn mile and yes there was a Todd Pletcher runner. But, as is often the case, there were TWO of them. Leading jockey Luis Saez was on Gasoline but the early program favorite was the "other" one, Bright Future who had Irad Ortiz on for regular, long-time client Michael Repole. Conflicting evidence made choosing difficult....Bright Future had cost his connections $350K at the Keeneland sales and Gasoline was a China Horse Club homebred. Mike Welsch of the DRF made Bright Future his top pick, but Ron Nicoletti didn't even put him in the top three. Hmmm. What caught my eye was Mike Welsch's comments. I take his analysis into consideration and look for items that maybe I overlooked, but generally speaking the ONLY thing that I believe he's truly got real insight on are morning workouts. And for this race he noted that Irad Ortiz had worked out BOTH of the Pletcher colts and landed on Bright Future. Weighing the angles I made him the top pick but noted in bold type to watch the board for clues before betting. From the opening bell until close to post time Gasoline took all the money and Bright Future was a luke-warm 7/2 on the board. I checked the multi-race pools and they both were favored in one of them over the other. Hmmm, I had said I'd follow the money. But the more I looked at it the more I thought maybe....just maybe this was the chance to make some money on what afterwards would be called an "obvious" choice. So I stuck with Bright Future. Gasoline took the lead and held it to the top of the lane when Bright Future came calling. Dueled for less than a 16th of a mile before MY pick took off and drew away to a decisive score. AND at a more-than-generous 4/1 price. OH MY.....paid $10 and I cashed for fifty big ones. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Less than ten minutes later it was time for my BEST Bet on the Laurel program in the Beyond The Wire Stakes for 3yo fillies. Last month in the Wide Country Stakes, Luna Belle could not have been more impressive as she blew by to win her third stakes in a row. And the three Beyers she'd earned in those wins were ALL better than 37 of the 38 numbers on the page. Only one had a chance by the figures IF Luna Belle did not fire and that rival fired her very best. I didn't think that was going to happen. Usually a mid-pack or farther behind runner (like last time when COMPLETELY OFF THE SCREEN) today Luna Belle was up close while pressing a moderate pace. Made her move on the turn, took command and drove to yet another daylight score with my "Prime Time" investment on board.
Hit a minor bump in the road as I missed on four in a row, two of them at even money, wow. Two races to watch live to go and then I'd have two late bets to watch at home. Just as I watched the second even money runner fail to pass the leader in the lane at Laurel I looked over at the big screen in the breezeway for the Aqueduct feature, the Cicada Stakes. The last couple of horses were just passing under the wire. Who won, WHO WON? When I'd bet on Lady Scarlett she'd been 3/1 or 4/1 as her odds fluctuated early on. The angles that pointed her out to me were these.....first, there appeared to be several "need to lead" types and she had shown the ability to be up close and press, then finish. Second, Mike Maker & Paradise Farms had seen fit to lay out a whopping $150K for her in a rich maiden claiming event last fall when she was still a maiden....somebody thought she could run; and third, Maker had run her at Oaklawn and she'd won a monied allowance. Now, second off the shelf he ships to NY? There HAVE to be similar events to this in Hot Springs, right? Loved the outside draw to stalk the front runners. Now the stretch-run replay came up and there was Lady Scarlett moving three wide into the stretch, taking the lead then sprinting away to score. Horray! But wait....now the odds flashed up - she'd left the gate a a huge 6/1 price. WOW.
Headed out to our seats on the finish line to watch the third of the Gulfstream stakes, the Hutcheson Stakes for 3yo going six furlongs. I knew, I KNEW that the vast majority of bettors were going to be enamored by massive 94 Beyer figure earned by Nitrous Spirit in his debut win here six weeks ago. But even without considering the rest of the field I was immediately skeptical. First, while he was 5/2 at post time that day he was NOT bet like a star in the making. Second, he was trained by George Weaver who's a "good" NYRA trainer, but this guy is generally known for having "good" turf runners. I don't know that I've ever known him to have a REALLY good runner. Then there were the race times themselves. He'd run a :45.1 half mile which was good, but not sparkling, then won by 2 1/4 lengths in an "ok" final time of 1:10 flat. None of that makes ME say, "WOW." By contrast, Todd Pletcher had a 3yo in here - ok, this has my attention. Provacateur had taken three starts to win, but had done so impressively at Tampa. Off the maiden win came back to run in a stakes race, the 7f Pasco Stakes where he pressed the pace to the stretch took the lead and at that point the opening six furlongs had gone in a wicked 1:09.3 over what's usually a slow-playing track. His Beyers were nearly 20 points slower but he was stakes placed, had more experience and was facing a less than impressive last out maiden winner. The two were head to head turning for home and then Provocateur kicked in and ran away to a daylight score. AND at a big 5/2 price!
We left with two Fair Grounds tickets in my hand. The first, in their ninth race was their "feature," an allowance event going five and a half furlongs on the turf. But as you scanned the runners this EASILY could have been at least a Grade 3 stakes with the quality of the runners. Even with that said, it was oh so clear that Bound For Nowhere was the one to beat, and she was my BEST Bet in New Orleans. She was exiting four straight graded stakes and the last time she was in allowance company like this she ran away with a career best Beyer figure. Now toss in that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez had flown in from So Cal to ride this horse - and it was his only mount of the day - and you could see that they were serious here. Right to the front and while it would appear she was taking pressure you could tell that Johnny V had her well in hand and the mare was just waiting to run. Turned loose at the top of the lane she accelerated and was a handy winner. Somehow she left the gate at 4/5 odds despite the "obvious" advantages she held.
In the final race from the track Bouldering was the 3/5 favorite in a maiden special two-turn route race. Looked to be ready to run by when bumped and shoved outside by the eventual winner. Steward's Inquiry - and I was put up as the official winner, so I cashed with both my last to plays to finish nearly 50% for the day with a handy profit.
Sunday I started off with back-to-back winners before I lost the last three. I was surprised when I ran the numbers for the week because heading into Saturday, as I said I went 1-for-8; then only two wins on Sunday. So an "Ok" week I thought...but no, it was a very good week!
Next Saturday is Louisiana Derby Day, so it will be a BIG day at the races. And it will be our last day at the races of the Championship Meet as our daughter has planned her wedding celebration for Saturday April 2, Florida Derby Day....then April 3rd is closing day.
Pot O'Gold Day Highlights
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