March 2 - 7
It was a really good week for me and the last BIG live Saturday of racing (Florida Derby Day is when our daughter has rescheduled her wedding for) as three-year-olds took center stage on Fountain of Youth and Davona Dale Day at Gulfstream. It was a HUGE crowd that brought my son over from the west coast, and national TV coverage on both the TVG network and NBC. AND for the first time this season a BIG horse ran during the week and we went out to see her run live. Here's how the week played out.....
The week kicked off on Wednesday and it's become "a thing" with me that this "best time of the year" for me when there is "World Class Racing" at the "Championship Meet" and we have very low level races by and large. Such was the case to begin the day. The first was a terrible maiden claimer and I missed in a starter allowance in the 2nd. In the third it was a 3-lifetime one-turn mile and I was not a fan of Sososubtle except that I am a big believer of the power of Beyer speed figures. Here, the horse was a standout. Settled near the back to the far turn, split rivals and powered away to win emphatically. Because it was such a cheap race and he was plunging from a $20K to this basement $6.25K I only risked the minimum....so I cashed for less than $10. But, a win is a win.
Two third place finishes followed before the "best" of the day in the finale where I was tons the best at even money but got THE worst ride and ended up ninth when Jose Ortiz never gave my pick a chance to run. Thursday I had picks in four of the first five races, and TODAY there was a BIG HORSE in the entries. Something I used to really look forward to - driving down on a weekday to see an odds-on graded stakes runner (or expensive maiden) run to victory because I CAN since I'm no longer working. Today it was Kimari, the winner of last fall's Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland. I missed at 6/1 in the opener when third. Then in the second the crowd made Ghostliner a prohibitive 1/5 favorite. I had no interest what so ever in this horse. First, this was an entry level allowance and 'Ghost was stepping up off a maiden win; second, it was a win in maiden claiming company; and third, worst of all, that win had come in his NINTH career start! What was everyone thinking? Instead I thought Big Daddy Dave had a legitimate chance in this five furlong sprint. On my first sweep through the pp's I was ready to pass the race, but then I noted that the last two Beyers that the lightly raced 'Dave had earned had come against winners and no one else had run that well against winners. As they approached the gate Dave was 2/1 and Ghost was 6/5. By the time they hit the far turn the favorite had taken a ton of late money. Big Daddy Dave had cleared immediately and when confronted by the favorite at the top of the lane he spurted away and looked like a daylight winner. A closer was flying late but too late. As he jogged back to the winners' circle the final odds lit up - he'd gone off at an inflated 4/1 - YOWZA! I cashed for $25 on the minimum play!
Now it was time for the big horse to run. She was the prohibitive favorite and deservedly so. The one "hmmm" I had was that many of her races were on the turf, but in the four dirt tries showing she was a perfect 4-for-4 and the last three had all come in stakes, the most recent in that Gr 1. She sat off the pace under Joel Rosario who was in town early to ride her today, then swept up to the front on the turn. Was immediately confronted by the one horse who had at least an upset chance. And for the briefest of moments you had that "uh oh" feeling, but then Rosario flicked his wrists and Kimari shot away without really ever running hard as I watched from the rail. And to add to the excitement I'd gone "all in" with an up-the-bet $50 WIN ticket! As I told Keith, it's not about making money with these kind, but about having a strong opinion, backing it with substantial wagers (for me) and being right.
We headed out and when I got home they were heading into the gate for the fifth, which was my fourth bet of the day. Chad Brown was sending out Tour of Duty off of a good effort at Tampa. All three of his previous races had been in OPEN MSW company and this was a maiden optional claiming event. Irad Ortiz settled the horse 2nd behind a 15/1 front runner to the far turn. Swept by and ran away for my third winner of the day!
Missed at even money with the final bet of the day but it was already a GREAT day! Topped off the superb Thursday by taking my honey to the Florida Panthers game where it was "Star Wars Night." A sharp win and photo ops with both the "good guys" and the "bad guys" made for a wonderful end to the day!
Friday was disappointing off the big day Thursday as I didn't cash a single ticket. Little did I know that this would prove to be a harbinger to the beginning of Foutain of Youth Day! So excited when on Thursday my oldest boy Jeff called and said his wife was out of town (for our daughter's bachelorette party) and he had the two grandsons, so what were we doing for the weekend. Made plans for him to bring them over, spend a good part of the day at the track then I'd give him our Panthers tickets for the 6pm game since I'd planned to stay at the track well past puck drop time. I'd also received in the postal mail another promotion card like I'd gotten earlier when I received a nice Gulfstream pull-over sweater. Today with the card I got a new polo shirt. They were available right after the first race and when I went to talk it back to the car I decided to just put it on for the day!
The day did NOT start well with the racing. Sixth in the opener at 3/1, sigh....then a Todd Pletcher 3yo dueled to the wire, 2nd at 3/1 but wait....INQUIRY! I had mixed feelings about the incident, but there was bumping and I'd lost by a nose so you COULD make the case, but no. Then the most likely winner, Never Surprised in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf for Pletcher. After breaking from post 12 in the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf he'd led all the way to deep stretch before giving way to his stablemate and holding on clearly to the place. With the inside draw today and a drop down to Gr 3 rivals he looked LONG GONE on the front end. Right out of the gate a 10/1 runner quarter horse sprinted to get the lead. Looked to me like jockey Luis Saez was surprised by the early challenge and after dueling for a few strides thought better of it and settled off the lead. Never a good thing when a confirmed front runner doesn't make the lead. Never engaged and a disappointing fifth at 1/5 odds. WOW. Then in the first stakes at Aqueduct, the Gr 3 Tom Fool, Chateau was defending his title. Much the same scenario, the lone speed. Only he did get the lead, coasting at the top of the lane, the challengers came and he had no response, second. So at this point, going back to Thursday I'm now on a twelve race skid. This is not what I'd foreseen for the way today would unfold. Finally, things began to fall right. In the Grade 3 Very One at Gulfstream, Chad Brown's Virginia Joy looked much the best IF she ran back to her pre-layoff numbers and she did winning easily. Right back with Kathleen O in the Grade 2 Davona Dale - the 3yo filly prep for the Gulfstream Oaks and onto the Kentucky Oaks. I'd seen and bet on 'Kathleen in December in a stakes when she won her third straight race to remain unbeaten and had impressed how she'd blown by from the back. Towards the back heading into the far turn again she displayed an electric turn of foot and ran by them all to win geared down for my second straight stakes. And finished the sequence in the Palm Beach Stakes on the turf for 3yo colts. My pick, a Todd Pletcher runner scratched so I opted into my second choice and Coinage closed from between runners to be up in the shadow of the wire! NOW we're talkin'!
I'd missed in the opener at Santa Anita just before the Palm Beach but in the second out West trainer Bob Baffert was sending out $1.7 Million purchase Taiba. Sharp works and those angles alone would have made him the bet. Add on new go-to rider John Velazquez who moved out west to be "the man" for Baffert and it was even more solid. Then I read in Brad Free's column that dating back to last fall, Johnny V had been on seven first time starters for the barn and won with SIX of them. Uh oh. Dueled through the opening stages, took a short lead turning for home and then opened up to a very impressive debut win. Came right back with my first pick of the day at the Fair Grounds, the Red Camilla Stakes going a mile on the turf. Net A Bear was the 9/5 program choice and was clearly the one to beat. She'd won on both turf and dirt and had victories in five of her last six starts. Two angles clinched it for me: first, the three turf races in her last eight starts had produced the three best Beyer figures; and second, she'd beaten everyone in the field (most multiple times) with the exception of a 12/1 outsider. As they headed to the gate and I went inside to watch on the simulcast screens I saw the field had scratched down to just four runners. Sat fourth of four - oh no, I've seen this story play out before I thought. Made a wide move on the turn, appeared to have collared the leader, but that one would not go away! Stretch duel to the final 100 yards before Net A Bear edged clear! So after losing the first six, I'd now won five of the subsequent six. It's a GOOD day!
Missed two straight at Gulfstream, both non-favorites before it was post time for the Grade 2 San Carlos at Santa Anita going seven furlongs. Cezzane was the defending champion and IF he ran back to his best races he'd easily win. But he was not a consistent type and he came from off the pace which often is problematic at Santa Anita. Today he broke sharply and pressed the leader through the far turn. Dueled for a sixteenth then pulled clear to be a daylight winner. And right back with my second of the three Fair Grounds Stakes, this one the Black Gold for three-year-olds on the turf. The two "obvious" choices were improving Dowagiac Chief and Tommy Bee. And while everything seemed very similar it was 'Chief who'd defeated 'Bee last time out. Still, form could reverse itself so I wasn't all in. But as the betting opened and progressed towards post time the crowd made Dowagiac Chief a prohibitive favorite in the win pool and the multi-race pools. I upped the bet. Right to the front, coasted along to the far turn, was challenged briefly, then sped away to an open lengths win!
The bottom line for the day was sealed over the next four races and hour in time. I ran second in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile where I just was not convinced the favorite was that much better than Todd Pletcher's Fearless when they met last time. He was again. Still have my doubts. Then in the Busher Invitational at Aqueduct - the 3yo filly prep on the road to the Kentucky Oaks - Shug McGaughey's Radio Days looked easily best. She was 2/5 and a "prime time" play for me. Faded to a disappointing fourth. Right back in the Grade 2 Buena Vista at Santa Anita where MY HORSE, Going To Vegas was coming off a layoff. The word to the owners was that this was NOT the big target but I agreed with most that even with a "B" race she could win. Was FLYING down the middle of the lane to catch the loose-on-the-lead front runner, just ran out of real estate. Still, I'll collect my share of the prize money. And then in the one that sealed my financial fate, much like the first stakes of the day when Todd Pletcher had the lone speed in Never Surprised, he had the lone speed in Abaan in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida. Again Luis Saez was up, and again he failed to secure the front. Another "prime time" investment tossed away when fourth at 3/5 odds.
Shortly thereafter it was post time for the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct, their first step towards the Kentucky Derby. Steve Asmussen appears to have a legitimate Derby contender in Morello. He was unbeaten in two starts and had drawn off impressively in both. Had the right stalking style for today and if able to step up into graded stakes he could prove tough. Pressed the leader to the far turn, then ran away through the lane. Looks like a true Derby threat. I ran second in the Grade 2 San Felipe when a stretch out sprinter went way too fast on the lead in the Santa Anita 3yo Derby prep, but he staggered home in front of my choice who finished second at 8/5. My co-bet of the day was 3/5 in the gate at the Fair Grounds in the Edward Johnson Memorial when he reared, flipped and then bolted out of the gate. Sigh....obviously scratched. Ran 4th and 3rd in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and the Gr 3 Herecomesthebride on the turf to close out the live racing. I had three late bets at Santa Anita to finish off "1st Bet Saturday:" I really liked Bob Baffert's As Time Goes By in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile and not only was she the class of the field but looked to be able to sprint clear and wire the field. The gates opened and she was away last....really? Then the jockey sprinted up between runners and took command and instead of rating let her open up to a half dozen lengths. Into the far turn I thought, just maybe we were good enough to overcome that break. But as they turned for home the closers were coming....but at the 1/8th pole As Time Goes By found another gear and it was all over! In the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile, up next I liked Count Again and Gulfstream invader Space Traveller. The 'Count got the top vote on two angles - first, he was 3-for-5 at the one mile trip AND had run well at Santa Anita previously (while Space Traveller was unproven over the grass here); and second, he exited a win in the Grade 3 Thunder Road which the DRF's Brad Free pointed out had produced both of the last two winners. Toss in top So Cal rider Flavian Prat AND a sizzling bullet work and that should do the trick. But at the top of the stretch he looked hopelessly beaten. Came off the rail into the clear, absolutely flying.....UP IN TIME!
And Count Again paid a generous $6.60 so I'll collect over $30 on that ticket when I head out again. In the final race of the day, I didn't have a strong opinion in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. I thought the favorite was a likely winner (and was Free's BEST) but he isn't a legitimate Gr 1 horse. Best of these, but not worthy at a short price. I ran third behind him. Sunday proved to be an "interesting" end to the week. Jeff and the boys had had a great time at the Panthers game (we won 6-2) and stayed until late afternoon playing with the neighborhood kids and fishing. So very much enjoyed having them around and of course getting to spend some quality time with my oldest. The "interesting" part of the day was that in the first race it looked very obvious that the favorite SHOULD win. But in this cheap maiden event I could not bet this veteran maiden who'd run 2nd at this same cheap level twice in his last two. He won as the 7/5 favorite. The second was very similar. The favorite looked obvious, but again I could not bet this 2-lifetime event with a short-priced runner who was 15/1-3-3. Won at even money. I DID have a bet in the third, another maiden claiming event. BUT I thought Illogical Love looked good going five and a half over the all-weather. Had run well for $50K and in two MSW events so the drop in class was a big plus. Trainer Saffie Joseph one who appears to have "figured out" how to prep his horses for the fake dirt as he's winning at over 26% with his Tapeta horses. Sent off at 3/5 jockey Tyler Gaffalione rocketed to a daylight lead and was coasting at the furlong pole. Then came the challenge, cutting into the margin with every stride....close but no - I win!
After a pass I ran 4th at 6/5 behind my second choice who went wire-to-wire, followed by another pass. The seventh was my "best" of the day. One adage in racing is you rarely want to take a horse who's first off the claim from a top trainer. And last time out Go Gooch Bragh had been claimed away from Todd Pletcher. BUT on the "Gulfstream Today" show they showed a stat at how good trainer Danny Gargan was with first-off-the-claim turf runners. I'd made him my choice previously and this just confirmed it. But as they spun out of the turn, again my second choice was loose on the lead at 2/1 and looked to be long gone. But 'Bragh shifted gears and not only caught the apparent wire winner but blew by effortlessly to win going away. NICE! And paid what I thought was a more than fair price enabling me to collect nearly $40.
Missed at even money in the last but still, 3-for-5 on the day. And when I did the stats for the week, I was surprised. After the 12-race losing streak the numbers were:
I'll take that! Next week is Tampa Bay Festival Day - multiple stakes events in Oldsmar with the highlight being the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby!
Fountain of Youth Week Highlights
Social Media......
Early on in the week my former student Jen was at a shower for her sister looking adorable in her boots, so I contacted here.
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