Gulfstream Park Championship Season: Rebel Stakes Week

February 23 - 27

Well it certainly was an unusual Saturday for the Championship Meet at Gulfstream because for only the second time since the first weekend in December I was NOT at the races! Our daughter Julie and her husband Brendon were down to visit and there was a hockey game at 12:30 pm Saturday afternoon. So we had a family day at the hockey game and I played just Oaklawn and Gulfstream races online. It was an excellent week of handicapping as I was able to raise my winning statistics for the month with a late surge! Here's how the week played out.......

As the week kicked off I was very much aware that the month of February had been a sub-par month for cashing tickets. But I've also come to recognize that over the long haul my numbers always seem to even out with the winning percentage in the 35% or better range. So I've learned that I just need to keep with it and things will work out. The first race of the week in the Wednesday opener was a maiden optional claiming event slated to go five furlongs on the turf. Anymore, instead of being nearly certain carded turf races WILL be run on the turf, it seems that management is anxious to move them to the all-weather surface, but fortunately that was not the case here. Morning Cocktail was my top choice. As I noted in my analysis, even though these were older maidens, IF you were a Beyer speed figure kind of guy - which I am - then my top choice was a standout. Her last two figures were better than any other speed figure on the page. In addition to that they were "paired" figures and that would seem to be indicative of a move forward making her all that much harder to take down. She pressed the 6/1 front runner to the top of the lane then was floated some six wide, losing valuable ground. But much the best as she surged past in the final sixteenth under confident handling.

I passed the next two races, but as has seemed to be a frequent occurrence, I had the winner listed in my top two choices. In the second of those two events I had to have a conversation with myself because I rated two horses as very likely winners above all the others, and one of them scratched. I noted after watching the Handicapping Show before the start of the racing day that I might bet this one. But as post time approached I just felt like I'd passed this 3yo claiming event for a reason. The horse was the even money favorite and liked to race near the front but was away slowly. I thought, "see, that was a smart move!" Then she blew by the field to win going away. Oh well. Passed the fourth and had the winner in my top two again. In the fifth there were two horses, again, that seemed to standout. It looked like Wesley Ward's 3yo filly American Starlet would be a short priced favorite and adding to the appeal - even though she was exiting a MSW win over the boys - was that the runner-up had come back to win in impressive fashion. But instead I thought I had a good handicapping angle to bet instead what turned out to be the second choice in the wagering, Classicstateofmind. What I liked was first, unlike the Ward filly, this colt had also been impressive in his maiden win, BUT had also come back with a sharp second against winners and had lost to a short-priced favorite. Add to that a best of 82 bullet work, and if you follow my adventures you know that's a favorite angle of mine. Broke sharply, went right to the front and was pressed by a 45/1 outsider to the top of the stretch. Lengthened his stride and was way to far gone before American Starlet made her bid. Paid a generous $7.60 and I was cashing on my second winner in a row for nearly $40!

Passed the sixth and then was out of the money in the final two races of the again abbreviated Wednesday card. Thursday turned out to be a very similar kind of day for me. Passed and then missed twice, the second with what I thought was the most probable winner on the card. Then in Race 4 I made the comment in my analysis, ".....is it just me or doesn't everyone see when scanning the pp's here that all but the two Maker runners have lost several times at the $20-$35K level and with this being a $50K claimer those should all be tossed?....." I made Order and Law my top choice who's pp's back to May of 2020 didn't show a SINGLE claiming try AND he'd WON FOUR TIMES in non-claiming events. The "obvious" short-priced favorite. Patiently waited while four wide into the turn. When asked just swept by and drew off handily. I was half right about the betting as he was the favorite, but in a nine horse field the bettors made one other 3/1 and two others 4/1 leaving Order and Law to be over 5/2 and so I cashed - like yesterday - for nearly $40.

Passed the fifth. In the sixth I was on the fence about playing or not. Three horses exited the same Tapeta race and it looked to me like the 6/1 third choice of the three had a solid chance, at a price. As post time approached he seemed to be fairly cold on the board and in the multi-race pools so I just watched. Blew by at 6/1 to win. Again, like yesterday, a horse I was going to add to the betting page I opted out and they won. What'cha gonna do? The seventh was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event and there was a Todd Pletcher runner. I've learned through my many years of playing at Gulfstream that (a) Pletcher rarely has horses in the claiming ranks (even more rare in a restricted event like this), but (b) when he runs them for a tag they win at a high percentage. And while I don't have the statistical data to back it up, it seems to me that typically when Pletcher puts a horse into the claiming ranks it's NOT a horse he's interested in keeping in the barn. So he typically puts them not just where they probably belong, but a notch or more below so that he not only gets rid of the horse but also adds another win to his total as he strives to win the claiming title. Such was the case with Amount in here. And like so many other claiming runners for the top barn, usually one of the top / go-to jockeys get on to add to their total....Irad Ortiz today. Settled in fourth going the one-turn mile to the turn. Began to make-up ground but looked to be wide into the lane and too far back. Came with one final surge, JUST UP in time!

Two wins on the day for the second consecutive day. Friday's card was something that used to be commonplace but now is not, there were TEN races. I had six selections on the sheet, but two scratched out - one of which was an "also-eligible" runner. Off the board with the first two so it wasn't until Race 7 that I got my first winner. And as I told Kim at the time, while the horse won and as the favorite, STILL I was able to cash a "prime time" ticket because I play the races regularly and I know my home town tracks and the connections that run here. For Y-E-A-R-S I've seen owner Frank Calabrese play the claiming game with a variety of trainers and one of his trademark moves is to claim a horse then plunge it in price and win for fun. His thing is winning in volumes and he doesn't mind at all to lose a horse via the claiming box because he's just gonna keep on taking them, dropping them and winning. And every so often he finds a good one that moves up the ladder. His current go-to trainer is Saffie Joseph who's also begun to get some really good horses in his barn, but still when Joseph plunges a horse, there's no need to worry about the "red flag" that the horse isn't fit and is just for sale. Oh he's for sale, but the intent is strong. So we come to Disc Jockey in the seventh which was a one-turn mile for $20K non-winners of three lifetime claiming runners. This horse had won for fun in a maiden claiming event to kick off his career as a juvenile. Claimed by Calabrese/Joseph they brought him back in a $50K claiming event for 3yo at the Championship Meet last winter and he won right back, easily. In his third start he tried a starter stakes and was the 3/5 post time favorite. A sharp second. Wasn't seen again for two years.....yes, TWO YEARS. That was in his most recent when he took on allowance rivals and ran an "ok" fifth. Considering the step up in class AND the layoff, you have to give him a pass. Most barns would bring him back in either another allowance or in a high-priced claimer. Not Calabrese & Joseph. PLUNGING to the $20K level AND in restricted company he laid over the field. Add in a sizzling bullet work in a wicked :59.4 and he looked really good. He was taking money so I upped the original bet to a "prime time" play. Sat fourth through the far turn and looked ready to roll when asked. Irad Ortiz was up and when he guided him into the clear and asked, he blew by the field like they were tied to the rail. Galloped out by to win by a lengthening margin of victory without being asked. I was SO RIGHT!

That proved to be the lone winner on the Friday card as the fourth pick of the day ran 7th at 2/1.

The hockey game had an early puck drop and we left the house at about 11:45 am, just after scratches were out. So I made my first six bets from the very limited list of nine playable runners on the two cards. Our Florida Panthers are among the best teams in the league this year and heading into last week's play we were an amazing 23-3 at home. But we'd played poorly in those first two games so I was hoping for a bounce-back effort today. Played very well, but the other team's goalie was the best player on the ice and we lost a close 4-3 decision. Got home about 3:45 and my first five races had been run so I watched the replays. In the Gulfstream opener the favorite looked REALLY hard to go past even though it was a mid-level $35K maiden event on the turf. George Weaver's Conundrum Queen had earned Beyer figures of 69 and 70 in her last two starts. And those were the ONLY figures in the field that exceeded par for this class level. Maybe a first timer runs big? I don't think so with the two firsters coming from barns that were 0-for-13 and 3-for-45 with those. Add in that the second of those two races for 'Queen had come off an eleven month layoff and she was a best of the rest 2nd. Found herself mid-pack to top of the stretch, had work to do and finally found her best stride late.....PHOTO finish!

I was fairly sure I'd won but it was indeed close. Still, I was happy to have started the day with a triple investment winner! The opener at Oaklawn was next on the sheet. It looked to be a rematch between two runners who'd run 2nd and 3rd last time out. I preferred the one who'd gotten the "show dough" because he appeared to have had the worst of the draws and trips. Sure enough the short priced favorite made his move just as Heartyconstitution (my pick) swung five wide into the lane. Just blew by to win going away at a nice $6.40 price for my second consecutive winner. The BET of the Week came in Gulfstream's featured sixth race, the Grade 3 Royal Delta for older fillies and mares. The odds-on favorite and very, VERY likely winner was going to be Eclipse Award winner Latruska who'd won six of eight starts last season including four Grade 1 wins. To support her you had to look past her 2020 finale when as the 8/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff she'd finished tenth by over 30 lengths. But her other Beyers would beat the combined 95 Beyers earned by the rest of the field in their careers. Add on she was a perfect 3-for-3 at Gulfstream and 6/5-1-0 at this mile and a sixteenth distance and she looked formidable indeed. I had NEVER been a fan of hers last year, though I did cash five winning tickets on her because, like today, I thought the connections had done a superb job of finding graded stakes which were light in competition. AND almost always despite EVERYONE and their brother knowing she wanted the front, in all her wins she'd been allowed to gallop along on the front end uncontested. The gates opened and within half a dozen jumps she was daylight clear of the field. Jockey Jose Ortiz never moved his hands and she WALKED with it. Didn't make much money but in this instance it was all about being right and backing her with a big bet!

Three for three! My next pick was the Grade 3 Honeybee from Oaklawn where three-year-old fillies were looking to stamp their ticket to the Grade 1 $1 Million Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May. When I first began to follow racing back in the late 1980s the king of thoroughbred racing was trainer D. Wayne Lucas, or "the Coach" as he was affectionately known as. He still has horses that run all over the country and occasionally one or two in stakes company, but unlike the days when he ruled racing, he has a low winning percentage these days. BUT this year he's got a special filly, Secret Oath and she'd won the prep for this, the Martha Washington like a really good thing. Today she was sent off as the prohibitive 1/5 choice and was blocked on the turn with no where to go. But the rider saw the rail opening up and he dove down inside. In two jumps she went from fourth to first and was clear. Ran away as tons the best. Good for the ole Coach!

Four-for-four! Finally missed when at Gulfstream I ran a distance 7th at 9/2 odds. But I came right back in the tenth at GP with Todd Pletcher's Star Seeking. You recall that Friday I lost two selections to scratches, one as an AE? Well it was this filly on the turf. Star Seeking had run a sharp second in her North American debut and first start for Pletcher last time out despite coming off of a five month layoff. Any kind of second-off-the-layoff improvement and she would be a handy winner. Right to the front and widened with every stride through the lane in a very impressive win to take down her entry level allowance condition. Could we see her next in a stakes event?

That proved to be it for the day as I ran 2nd, 4th and 6th all as short priced favorites. Still, five-for-nine on the day and a clear profit is nothing to sneeze at! The final day of the racing week saw me with five live plays on the eleven race Gulfstream card. When I tuned into the "Gulfstream Today" Handicapping show prior to the races I wasn't stunned that hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney wasn't on the desk, but at the end of the card's analysis when GP host Ron Nicoletti said they would be joined later by Ashley Mailloux (who's a hottie in her own right, but not quite the handicapper our very own Acacia is) I was surprised. I immediately fired off a message to her, since she is my gal-pal on Twitter :) And minutes later she replied that it was her wedding week so she'd be off for the whole week. Happy for our girl! Passed on the opener and in the second I looked to beat the favorite with another Saffie Joseph runner who had run an even sixth last time out and off that dull effort was being RAISED in price today. Curious! But the favorite won handily and I was fourth as the 5/2 second choice. The third was a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds going five furlongs on the new Tapeta surface. I liked the likely favorite, Whats Goin On who on that aforementioned Handicapping Show had been tabbed as a single by more than one handicapper in their multi-race wagers. Today was for all intents and purposes just her second career start because in her debut she'd immediately lost the rider. Last time out she dueled all the way to the wire before losing the head bob. All the others, with one exception, in here with experience had "best" Beyers that were 30+ points slower than Whats Goin On had earned and the firsters came from barns that were a combined 0-for-16 with those. The one that looked like a threat on the numbers had been beaten by Whats Goin On by almost three lengths last time out. Right to the front, she took pressure and was head strong wanting to go on with it. But Miguel Vasquez kept a hold on her to the top of the lane and when let go ran away as much the best.

Missed at 3/5 and then passed three straight. This was a maiden claiming event for older going a mile and seventy yards on the all weather. And to be honest, on the first run through what I saw were all runners who'd lost at this $16K level and a class dropping, Parx shipper who'd never been over the synthetic AND came from a barn that 1-for-16. I was set to pass when I read Ron Nicoletti's comments that Six Minus came from the Todd Pletcher barn. Wait a tic.....I re-examined the runner. Anyone else but Mr. Todd and I'd probably have stayed away. But, (a) Pletcher a sharp 29% with second off the shelf runners, (b) jockey Tyler Gaffalione is winning at a 41% clip for the barn; and (c) owner Michael Repole had shelled out $100K to buy this one originally so someone at one time thought he could run. Was NOT the smoothest of trips and/or rides as she was away at the back....three wide in the first turn AND all the way down the backside; then FOUR wide on the turn and fanned at least FIVE wide into the lane. In the final 16th accelerated....PHOTO FINISH!

Up in time and paid a generous $6.20 so I cashed for over $30 on my second winner of the day! In the ninth I probably would have bet Mid Day Image who wired the field and paid a generous 2/1, but there was a Todd Pletcher runner in the field who ran a good third at 4/1. As I figured, Mid Day Image was loose on the lead. The tenth and "featured" race on the final card of the week was a seven furlong conditioned allowance that featured budding star First Captain. Hall of Fame Shug McGaughey had really been high on this colt last year as a 3yo. He'd won at first asking and in his first test against winners - I was watching on "America's Day At The Races" - he talked about an impressive win would send him to stakes company. Won for fun and came back to win the Grade 3 Dwyer at Belmont. Off that they were using the restricted, nine furlong Curlin at Saratoga as a prep for a run at the $1 Million Travers. But he was a disappointing third that day and he was put away for the year. So today, you KNOW they have bigger targets than this allowance, and it would be safe to say that even though he won his debut at today's 7f distance, this was NOT his ideal trip. Still, on raw talent he figured to win. Was at the back, but only about five off the leader into the far turn. Began to pick off horses but at the top of the lane the front runner skipped away. Uh oh, it's going to be a "we're happy with how he ran" kind of race, but then he found another gear, came flying.....PHOTO FINISH!

UP in time for my third winner on the day! WHOOO HOOO. And for the week, check this out :) Next week will be a HUGE week of racing. On Saturday it's Fountain of Youth Day and Santa Anita Handicap Day where the two Stronach-owned tracks will have a combined FOURTEEN stakes races. And it's Gotham Day in New York, their version of the FOY for 3yo card. BIG DAY - and I already have our tickets :)

Rebel Weekend Racing Highlights

Social Media This Week.....

On Monday "my girl" Karli Barnett was anchoring - and you may recall she's the weekend anchor. Last time this happened and I messaged her she replied, "it's all Karli all the time" and so i sent HER this message. She reached back out to me, by my name - not my Twitter handle :)

On Wednesday, on the Gulfstream Today Handicapping Show Ron Nicoletti told another joke which sent Acacia over the top. Love those guys!

On Thursday I was in touch with Acacia not once but twice. She first nailed a 5/1 winner which I immediately congratulated her and got a reply back, then......

Later in the day she got on her Facebook account and reacted to a post I'd put out there two weeks ago following the Eclipse Awards show.

Our good friend and former co-worker Mishele was in Gainesville over the weekend. She and I "chat" nearly every week during football season about "our Gators." So when she posted a "Go Gators" pic I messaged her and she replied.

Saturday evening Karli hosted a Facebook Live chat and I just caught a few minutes of it. But when I messaged her a "Happy Saturday Karli" she almost immediately looked down to see my message and replied on air, "Oh Hey Mark, Happy Saturday!"