Week 14: March 3 - 7
It was "a week" with racing, and there were many good races that I watched, including the BET of the Week when Life Is Good dazzled around two turns in the Grade 2 San Felipe. But by and large, it was just a week. Not a lot of great stories and by and large a pretty mediocre week at the Championship Meet locally. Won, some....but most of the races were of average quality. Don't get me wrong, any time we get to watch and wager on horse racing it's great, just not the typical high level of competition we usually expect at GP. So here's how the week played out.....
Wednesday March 3
So the week opened and the first bet of the week and the day came in the second, a non-winners of two lifetime event going a one-turn mile. As I noted in the analysis, I'm NOT a fan of 3yo in for a claiming tag this time of year, much less nw2L 3yo claimers. BUT with that said, two back Dropped Anchor had won at this trip under Paco Lopez with a good figure. Came back under Jose Ortiz in OPEN company at this price level and dueled all the way around before losing by half a length. Inside draw, back to Paco and the subtle drop from open to restricted company was enough to go in for the minimum. Tracked the speed to the turn, took the lead while in hand and drew clear.
A good way to start the week, or so I thought. As it turned out, that was it until Friday afternoon. Rand 8th at 9/2, 2nd at 5/2 with every chance, third at 6/5 with every chance if good enough, 5th at 8/5 in a dismal effort, and 6th at 6/1. Then on Thursday I missed on all four at 3/5 odds (fourth, wow - a Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz class dropping 3yo maiden); 3rd at 8/5, 3rd at 2/1, 7th at 4/1 and finally 3rd at 6/5 to close out the 0-for day.
Friday March 5
It didn't take long to finally snap out of the losing skid as I won the opener on the day. Flamingo Hawk was a nice 3/1 price when they left the gate in a six and a half furlong 3yo maiden claiming event. The top two choices in the wagering were not nearly as good looking for the win in my opinion. 'Hawk came from the Saffie Joseph barn with hot-riding Irad Ortiz on board. That alone SHOULD have made her the chalk. Then you saw she ran at this same trip WITH TROUBLE and had a better Beyer figure than the other two. What are people thinking? Well, I SHOULD have upped the bet....she blew by on the turn and won by a pole as TONS the best, wow.
After running third at 5/1 I scored again in the fourth. Rocking the Boat was coming into this elongated sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs off of three barn changes, two since his last race. His lone competition was a horse who'd been to the post FORTY-SEVEN times, with only 6 wins and NINETEEN runner-up finishes to go with eight third place prizes. He obviously did NOT want to win. But the crowd sent that one off as the 9/5 favorite and let 'Boat go off at 5/2. Blew by at the top of the lane to win with ease and paid $7.40.
So, even though the two scores had been with a minimum wager I was up nearly twenty dollars after going two for three. Passed the next two, ran 3rd and then second with odds on choices before getting to the day's finale....a starter allowance going five furlongs on the turf. Captain Ron was a "questionable" pick, I'd agree. So many excuses, but I'd seen his last and I remembered he "SHOULD" have won, so I looked up my notes for the day. I'd written, "....Missed the break, raced wide. Checked briefly into the turn. Was in between runners with no where to go. Finally room inside, too late....." I felt the good Captain deserved ONE last chance. Sat the ideal trip, moved out into the clear entering the stretch...dueled and was J-U-S-T up in time.
Like the other two winners on the day, he paid a nice price ($6.60) and I ended the day by collecting more than $30.
Super Saturday
There were stakes races ALL over the country today and I had handicapped SEVEN different tracks and had more than forty selections on my sheet which had a kickoff just after noon and the final race was scheduled to go to post at 8:30 pm. WHAT a day! And I could not have asked for a better start to the day. The opener at Gulfstream was a MSW for 3yo going a mile on the turf. After looking over the race I commented that it might be best to pass the race, but I could not look past the starts on trainer Danny Gargan. After Stunning Princess ran 2nd in back-to-back MSW events at Saratoga - that alone would make you pay attention - she'd been entered in a Grade 1 event at Woodbine. The Gargan barn was winning at a 40% clip overall and 29% off the bench like this filly was doing. Finally, jockey Miguel Vasquez was a whopping 56% winner for the barn. HAVE to take a look there. Tracked the front running favorite into the turn, looked like she was done, but found another gear in the lane. Dueled with Irad Ortiz's horse, the second choice, and edged clear late.
The payoff of nearly $9 allowed me to cash for over $20 on the first bet of the day. Right back in the opener at Laurel where Commanding General went right to the front and was much the best as the even money favorite. And right back AGAIN in the second at Gulfstream. Dream Friend was exiting an easy wire-to-wire win in his most recent, and he would obviously take a lot of money today. I typically do NOT like last out claiming winners that coasted on the front end. But truly, it looked like jockey Jose Ortiz would have NO ONE to deal with on the front end. Still.....cheap claimers, and at a short price. Went in for the minimum. As projected - right to the front, alone. When the opening quarter was posted at :25 and change it was all over.
Cashed for the third win from three selections. This is a M-U-C-H better day than the week has been so far :) Reality returned as I lost three straight at odds on, then somehow a Todd Pletcher & Irad Ortiz were allowed to leave the gate at 11/1 with a first timer. Ran like it when 7th. It was Tampa Bay Derby Day today and ironically my "BEST" of the day in Oldsmar came in their fourth, an entry level allowance on the turf. Normally those kind of races are very difficult to handicap, but Niceno is exactly the kind of runner who wins these races. Lightly raced with good Beyer figures, AND he'd run competitively against winners. Despite being in post ten I made him my triple investment choice. He was still fifth as the field entered the turn and as the leaders roared past the furlong marker he wasn't even in the TV screen. But in the final strides he was F-L-Y-I-N-G on the outside.....JUST IN TIME! The payoff allowed me to cash for nearly $40 on my fourth winner.
Missed on the next three....third, third, and second. And got back into the winner's circle at the Fair Grounds in a 3-lifetime claiming event when the favorite, Love of my Heart came running up the rail and was much the best. Ten minutes later Todd Pletcher's Untreated swooped by the field in an eye-catching maiden win at Tampa. Was interesting that the Team Valor colt had shown little under Chad Brown's care, but this first start for Pletcher brought immediate results. Missed in the next five, including two seconds and a third before it was time for the eighth at Gulfstream, a non-winners of three lifetime event going a one-turn mile. Six of the eight career starts for my top choice, Tokyo, had been on the turf. His other two were at this one-turn mile, and THOSE TWO were his only two career wins. Uh oh. AND Irad took the call, well hello, duh. Shuffled to last on the turn he looked out of it, but he circled the field and edged clear inside the final furlong to give me my seventh win on the day.
Four straight off-the-board finishes followed before it was time for Aqueduct's Heavenly Prize Invitational. Lake Avenue had been a promising two-year-old with eyes on the Kentucky Oaks two years ago. But last year she failed to produce at three. She'd made her four-year-old debut at Gulfstream in an allowance and had run away with the win. A best-of-36 bullet said the Bill Mott trainee was ready for her best. That he'd chosen to run her here, in New York, off a ship instead of last weekend in one of the many stakes events at Gulfstream, I thought said a lot. She cruised to the leaders as they reached the bottom of the far turn. Asked to run she immediately opened up to win by a pole. WHOOOO HOOOO. My first stakes winner of the day with a triple investment.
Two more misses led to the 10th at Gulfstream, the Captiva Island going five furlongs on the turf. And by this time the rains had begun to come and in buckets. Still, it was slated for the turf as the horses warmed up. Then, literally as they approached the gate the announcement came that NOW it was being moved to the main track. WHAT????? I could have cancelled my bet but I stuck with her. Took the lead and looked gone in mid-stretch, nailed on the wire. Just so wrong that they made this move so late. And I immediately thought of Announcer Pete's reply when I asked about a non-DQ and he said that the stewards wanted to "protect the bettors," well how did THIS move protect the bettors? Guess I wouldn't have minded nearly as much had she won :) Next up was my BEST of the day at the Fair Grounds. And as I've often said, you don't have to be betting a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Championship race to have a "Best Bet." This was a money allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. In his first start since coming to the US, Darain had been FLYING to be second from more than a dozen lengths back. A return to that effort and Brad Cox's potential stakes runner would be a decisive winner. He was farther back in fifth that I'd have preferred as the field approached the far turn, and the fractions were not fast, but the top two were dueling. He began to move up and then was behind five horses as they moved through the turn. The rider ducked inside to try and find a seam and had no where to run. Had to check AND steady....this is NOT good. A furlong left and a seam opened. Then .... WOW blew through under a hand ride and won for fun without taking a deep breath. YOWZA - stakes time for this guy next time out!
The "prime time" investment netted me thirty bucks. The Any Limit Stakes at Gulfstream was next up and I did not like the favorite, a last-out maiden winner for Chad Brown. Farsighted looked to become my "Day-Maker" of the afternoon. Her form was darkened and I was hoping most handicappers would NOT see what I saw. After showing promise early in her 3yo season she'd tried stakes company around two turns before going to the bench. I thought under Jose Ortiz she'd run big today. Right away he had her pressing the last-out maiden winner and I knew I had a real chance. As they came out of the turn she took off and won going away. AND at a big 5/1 price so I cashed for over $60! Now THAT was some good handicapping :)
Back to back second place finishes led us to the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn for fillies pointing towards the Kentucky Oaks. Will's Secret had blown by the 4/5 favorite - who was in here - in the prep for this, the Martha Washington Stakes. And if she ran back to that effort she would be much the best. She went to the front and was battling from the get go. Got to the lead, then lost it on the turn, but regained the front. Edged clear and here came two closers. Would not give in and won by daylight.
The seventh at Santa Anita featured Whisper Not in an allowance test around two turns on the turf. Twice he'd been multiple lengths in front but couldn't hold on. Today Flavian Prat took over and I hoped he'd ration the speed. Opened up by eight or more. The field was within four into the lane, but no one could catch him and he won by a length and a half for my fourteenth and final win on the day. The wonderful day at the races was topped off by a big 6-2 win by our Florida Panthers in Nashville. Whooo hooooo.
Sunday February 7
So, how would today go? Like the first part of the week or the last two days? Saturday morning, as is the case typically, I'd handicapped the Sunday card. But I'd been unable to finish the card, I had three races left to go as I sat down Sunday morning. When I'd gone through the first part of the card the previous day I knew the forecast was for rain, but I figured we'd be on the turf today. But after watching the deluge yesterday I was now not so sure. So before finishing the handicapping I went back and made alternate, main-track analysis & selections for all the turf races. When the pre-show came on the announcement came that the first two races would come off the grass, but the remainder of the card would stay on the grass - good for management as they'd already announced that today would be a mandatory payout on the Rainbow Pick 6. Passed on the opener and the second was originally scheduled to go a mile on the turf, now it would be a one-turn mile on the dirt. Trainer Brad Cox who is the leading trainer at the Fair Grounds and also at Oaklawn has a string here in So Fla for the first time. But it's been pretty obvious that his best horses are either in Louisiana or Arkansas. Still, Maureenlovesfrank looked like a perfect fit here. Why she was entered for the turf is a question because ALL of her previous races were on the dirt, and they'd been pretty good efforts. The last had been her first time tagged and that was for $35K where she was third at 8/5. Now all the way down to $16K she would probably be best. AND Irad was riding. On the turn she was shuffled back to last, but Ortiz didn't flinch. He waited for room and when a seam showed in the lane he asked and 'Maureen blew by under a hand ride to win as much, MUCH the best. Good for me for handicapping for the main track instead of just passing on the off-the-turf event!
Led to deep stretch at 7/5 in the third, but was caught late. The fourth was going to be my BET of the Day going five furlongs on the turf. And when I'd re-analyzed the race I made the comment that I'd be perplexed if my top horse stayed in, but that on the dirt I really liked Too Much Tip. This one was 4-for-6 on the off-going and had six wins from twenty starts on the main track. BIG stats for a moved-to-the-dirt race. And the ever-present Irad was on board. He pressed the pace to the top of the stretch, was asked the question and he blew by to win as MUCH the best. Two-for-two with off-the-turf re-handicapping selections :)
Missed on three more before getting the final win of the week in the tenth, a turf sprint. What just LEAPED off the page to me was in this twelve horse field the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, AND 12 had all won previously by going wire-to-wire. Can anyone say CLOSER? The two obvious late runners were a 15/1 outsider and Lontano. Lontano had won off the bench in a state-bred entry level allowance, and would now move into an open allowance test. But the pace flow was idea. As the field spun out of the turn he was still seventh or eight but began to move. He had to swing wide and as the field sprinted for home he was out of the TV picture. Inside the final two hundred yards, here he came FLYING.....PHOTO Finish!
That's right, I'm the winner. Nice to close down the week with a three-win effort. AND today the ticket gals at Gulfstream called and I got ten tickets for Florida Derby Day. Six tickets at a nice table right on the rail and four in the grandstand. Have to begin getting my group together :)
Week 14 Racing Highlights
On the social media front......
Kim and I are booked to travel with Viking River Cruises in 2023 to Egypt - we were supposed to go there last month with Adventures by Disney but the pandemic shut that event down. So this week, Viking TV was doing a series of presentations on that itinerary. I went online Wednesday morning to check on the time of the broadcast and there was a place to ask a question. Why not? During the broadcast they read my question....watch the video clip and pay particular attention to the hosts' reaction when told this would be our seventeenth Viking adventure.
Viking TV - Mark Has A Question
Good stuff, eh?
Also, my good gal-pal Kimmy had reached out to me....that is unusual as it's usually me that initiates the contact (though, to be fair she's told me many times to do so because she is busy but always wants me to reach out to her). We were going to try to get together via FaceTime. Didn't happen, but that she thought of me was more than good enough to make me smile.
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