Week 15: March 10 - 14
It's days like Saturday that keep you going because if you play the races, and you're relatively good at it, you KNOW that you are eventually going to have one of THOSE days. And it will almost certainly go down as one of the best, if not THE best days of the winter season. Making it all the better is that the first three days of the week ALSO had big time highlights as well. And while I felt pretty good about the picks on Sunday ahead of time, it came as no surprise that there was some "back flow" in the results because in thoroughbred racing, no matter how good you are, you simply cannot sustain winning all the time and making big profits every day. So, as the end of Sunday rolled around I was very happy with the week's numbers as a whole.....
Here's how a great week played out......
Wednesday March 10
I felt PRETTY confident that the week would start off with a win as Breatkthrough was listed as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in the program for this maiden claiming 3yo turf sprint. On paper, just the pp's made this one look like a solid favorite, but as I noted in the analysis, I personally did not see anything that made him such a standout that he'd be made a 3/5 morning line favorite.....first time tag, with Irad, I get it how he'd be the POST time 3/5 favorite, but in the program? His Beyers did not separate him that much from the others and it was a worry that he'd disappointed as the post time favorite in three of four starts. Most worrisome for me personally, and I included this in the analysis for anyone who was playing along with me, was that I rarely win with a Wesley Ward runner, even a prohibitive favorite like this one. But despite all this, the horse went right to the front, never looked back nor took a deep breath and I was off and running in Week 15 with a win.
Passed the 2nd, dull fifth place efforts in the third and fifth (scratched out of the fourth) before we arrived at the "story of the day." And to be honest, in MOST weeks, this would have been the "best" story of the week. The 7th was a starter-optional claiming event for 3yo going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. And as I noted in my write-up, SOMEBODY had to be way off because I seemed to be the only one attracted to Coworth Park. It's not unusual that I see a race differently than both public handicappers, but in this instance, the fact that it was Todd Pletcher, with Irad Ortiz on a class dropping and lightly raced colt made me wonder what THEY were thinking. Add in that Coworth Park was one of only two in the field NOT exiting a maiden win and it was even more curious. To complete the analysis, the colt had run ok in MSW company before being dropped in for $25K to win going away. Came back first time winners in a starter that required a $50K start or less AND it was rained off the grass - obviously draw a line through that. Now today in for "....have run for $35K or less...." and it just seemed obvious to me. I must admit that when the field hit the far turn and they were still in the back of the pack I was thinking, "well, I guess I'm the one who was way off" but then he got clear sailing and blew by the field. Not only did he win, but he paid over $10 so I would cash for over $50.....on the top trainer, with the top rider, on the class drop. Sometimes you just shake your head and thank the crowd1
Hard to believe, right?
The eighth today had been reduced to a field of three and Joshy Jak had not made my analysis. The scratches (and this was true all day) came as a precaution when two barns had runners diagnosed with a virus so ALL horses from those barns were quarantined. But as I watched the show prior to the races both Nicoletti and the pretty Acacia noted that Joshy Jak seemed the oh-so-obvious pick in here. I noted that and when post time neared I checked all the mult-race payouts and he was for sure the prohibitive choice of "everyone." Good enough for me, certainly I can pick a winner in a three horse field who's the prohibitive favorite I thought. Won for fun to end the winning for the day.
Even with two more dull finishes (5th and 8th) to end the day I had a winning day. Marveled the rest of the day how I'd been so fortunate to get $10 and change on a Pletcher-Ortiz pick. WOW.
Thursday March 11
I was excited to watch the races today and originally I'd even thought of driving out to Gulfstream today. And probably had it not been in these unusual times I may have. But I just couldn't convince myself to drive all the way down there, pay over $15 for a ticket, and watch a 1/5 shot roll home. In previous years its not like I had a busy schedule, and I'd drive down to stand on the rail for fun. But this was different....and then the weather was iffy, and there was a hockey game tonight so I'd have to rush back, so I watched at home. But what was so exciting was that debut winner, Prevalence was running today and there had been a lot of talk about him being a potential Derby runner off his scintillating score on Pegasus Day. More on him in a moment, as the day started with back-to-back losses as both runners in the first and second races ran evenly to be fourth. The fourth presented, much like the week's opener, a very likely winner in Emolga. The drawback was that the race was a $6.25K claiming event going a one-turn mile. And at GP in the winter, you can't run any cheaper than that. Well, I take that back, you COULD run in a $6.25K race for non-winners of two lifetime....THAT is as cheap as it gets and that IS what this was. So caution would be advised. Still, Emolga had come off a short freshening and dueled all the way from gate to wire at this distance for $12.5K, finishing second beaten less than a length. AND she was clear of the show by more than seven lengths. Today, on the drop, with Irad, duh hello. No wonder Acacia made Emolga her single in the Early Pick 5. The field broke out of the gate and....seriously, off at the back of the field and not running with any interest to the far turn. Sigh.... But when asked he circled the field, and while he did clear in mid-stretch, it wasn't like he blew by them as tons the best. Still, I'd tripled the bet and was rewarded with a payout of more than $25.
Passed the next two then ran third at 6/5 before it was time for the "big horse" to make his appearance. As far as bets go, making this 3yo my BET of the Week was not "smart," but in MY world of handicapping the amount of money I play is most often a reflection of the confidence I have in the horse and I get as much of a "rush" from being right with a big bet as I do from a big score on a price play. I told Kim in the morning as we enjoyed coffee on the porch that I was concerned that Prevalence had the same story line as a horse three years ago, Hidden Scroll. He'd also won dramatically on the Pegasus undercard, got Derby buzz chatter, but he came back and disappointed in three straight before going to the shelf. One difference here though was that trainer Brendon Walsh had NOT come back in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth, as he'd speculated publicly but opted for this one-turn mile in an entry level allowance. Still, one of the reasons for this spot was he'd missed a training session with a slight fever. So would he run back to his hype? I was willing to bet that he would. He rated off the leader, waiting for his cue and then took off through the lane. He won handily, but as I said afterwards, he was not nearly as convincing that he was something "special" today, just "good." Will be interested to see how he runs if he does go two turns and in a Derby prep next out. For the record, were I the trainer, I'd be pointing for the one-turn mile Grade 3 Pat Day on the Derby undercard. But hey, that's me.
I missed in the 9th before taking Future Victory in the finale. Especially in hindsight it's easy to say that I SHOULD have loaded up here, but the finale was a maiden claiming event, so there's that. Still, Future Victory was a Todd Pletcher runner. Got Irad Ortiz today. Dropped in for a first time tag. Had a bullet work for today, AND in both his previous starts the runner-up had come right back to score. Seemed pretty obvious. The wide draw saw Ortiz handle him patiently through the first turn. Moved up down the long straight away on the back side, then surged four wide on the turn to the front and ran away as much the best. Cashed for over $40 as I scored a third victory for the second consecutive day!
Friday March 12
As I said in the intro to the week's journal, on a "normal" week, the score with Coworth Park would have been the "headline story" for the week, or the "Best Bet - Prevalence" would have been the best story; and AGAIN today, on a normal week, the way today played out would have been "the story." In the opener I liked Simply The Best a lot in this MSW - 3yo turf sprint. The colt LOOKED simply the best on paper. Granted he was moving from a $50K event to this MSW, but the key there was it had been an OPEN $50K and this was a STATE-bred MSW, so I thought it was pretty much a lateral event. It was Danny Gargan - winning at 40% clip overall - with Luis Saez, a 43% tandem with paired Beyers and third off the shelf. Duh, hello. But, the statistic that made me pause was Gargan was 0-for-11 over the last two years with turf sprints. Hmmmmm. Sat off just off the pace, rallied three-wide into the lane and wasn't blowing by, but I was confident he was going to win before here came Irad Ortiz on the second choice, closing ground....PHOTO finish. I watched it live and in the slo-mo, both angles and I still was confident I won. But the "placing judges" kept looking at the replay and I said out loud, WHAT are they looking at. Then the photo came up......
Now I don't know about you, but considering I was SURE I'd won, the first thing I noticed is that there isn't a rail in this picture. Never mind that in ALL other photo finishes the red is missing it's distinctive red-to-silver color at the finish line. Just REALLY suspicious to a guy who HAD 4/5 on the winner, and only got paid 1/9.
In the third NONE of the runners looked promising, but as I noted, SOMEBODY has to win. I did think that Blakenstein was decent. If you tossed his turf try then his first and last races sandwiched around the grass effort were ok. Better than any other figures except the best from an 0-for-9 maiden. Good enough for the minimum play. Right to the front and wire to wire easily. I'll take the win for "padding the stats" and collected $14.50 on the 9/5 winner. Right back in the third race where Malibu Max looked like a standout. I've often noted in my analysis the importance of knowing your track and it's trainers. And often when you see a class plunger it's a red flag, but with owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Saffie Joseph do it, it's because they are realistically spotting their horses. So here was a runner they claimed for $35K, sent him to the sidelines and now showed up for $16K, less than half the price they paid. Add in Irad Ortiz and can you say "Winner-winner, chicken dinner?" Rated third into the turn then swooped by and was LONG gone. Collected nearly $25 on my triple investment and I had won three in a row!
Missed on the next two bets but the payoffs for that sequence looked like this: Race 5: $34.50 / Race 6: $26.20 / Race 7: $25.00 / Race 8: $13.00. This isn't significant other than I thought during the sequence that (a) nobody was hitting the Rainbow Pick-6 today and that (b) it would be hard to pick winners in the "Beat the Expert Day" contest. But it did factor into my playing my final horse of the day. I typically handicap the Friday and Saturday cards early and so I use the DRF early morning line for odds. And those I've found, FOR YEARS are often wildly off. But nearly always they are off by listing a horse at big odds that goes off as one of the choices. So my last bet of the day was in the 9th where I liked Spend Benjamins who was listed by the DRF at 5/1. In his last he'd faced today's rival Exchange Day and that one had gone wire to wire. Spend Benjamins had left the gate at 9/2 odds. I thought he'd be about that today and had an excellent chance to spring the upset. Why? Because he had a stalk-and-finish running style and Exchange Day had drawn wide today with faster front runners to his inside. I thought Tyler Gaffalione would sit the perfect tracking trip and blow by for the upset. But with ten minutes to post, Spend Benjamins was 17/1. What? Not saying I would have not played, but the first thought I had was that today there had already been multiple big priced winners, why not another with my "upset special." Wish I'd been more daring and put more than the minimum $5 bet down, but that was the plan so I stuck with it. Surprisingly the gates opened and Gaffalione sprinted clear. I thought immediately, so much for the upset because you know he won't go wire to wire. But as they hit the far turn he was daylight in front and NO ONE was gaining on him. I jumped up and started snapping my fingers. The rest of the household looked at me curiously and as he crossed the wire I exclaimed 14/1 winner and I had it! Got the "deer in the headlights" looks because my wife and mother-in-law weren't doing the math - "I'm cashing for $75!!" WHOOOO HOOOO.
YOWZA - What a hit!
And to be exact it was $78 :) Little did I know at that point that I had bigger payoffs - yes, plural - still to come this week!
Saturday March 13 - Rebel Stakes Day at Oaklawn
I had a full slate of races to bet today as it was a BIG day everywhere, except interestingly at Gulfstream. Oaklawn was featuring multiple big events with the highlight being the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes for 3yo on the Derby trail, Laurel was running another of their multiple-listed stakes cards, and Santa Anita had the lone Grade 1 of the weekend in the Beholder Mile. I also had selections from Aqueduct to round out the action. I began watching the handicapping show at 11 am and the final selection left the gate at about 7:30 pm, while I was at the Panthers hockey game. But man, WHAT a day! Started off the day, much like any other day by finishing 2nd and 3rd with minimum plays. Thought they were good enough to wager on without getting all involved. The third selection on the sheet I noted that it wasn't "mixed feelings," but more like "I have reservations" about betting Ocean Air in this maiden claiming turf route. On the upside, the really good upside were these angles..... she was running for a first time tag, she was third off the shelf, and her three career Beyer figures topped all 34 of the combined lifetime numbers posted by the rest of the field. Add in the barn was a huge 40% with MSW to MC runners. What's NOT to like? As I noted, were this race in Tampa, nothing because THERE trainer Christophe Clement was winning races right and left. But here in Hallandale he'd posted a lowly 4-for-44 resume for the meet. Still, the horse runs the race, right? Sat a great trip in fourth behind the lonely front runner, while saving ground. Moved out into the clear into the lane, then ducked back inside for clear run....dueled....PHOTO FINISH!
I was pretty confident I'd won but I was glad when it was official and I could cash my $30 win ticket :) Next up was the first stakes from Laurel. I'd cashed tickets on the filly Street Lute in three consecutive stakes and in both of the last two I wondered if she'd topped out. I was more certain of it today and considered passing the race. But I went back and looked, then calculated that even if I lost this race with her, she'd still been a profitable investment over the four races. I "owed" her my loyalty. Should have watched, just didn't have it today when running third at 3/5. Missed at Aqueduct and then got my first winner at Laurel. It was a maiden race and I did NOT like any of the runners who had experience. Only Glory March was debuting today but she was debuting for trainer Brittany Russell with brother Sheldon in the saddle. Russell was scoring at big 33% with firsters and 37% with her brother up. On the turn Glory March was being hard ridden to keep up while in fourth. But into the lane she began to gather momentum. The bad front runner drifted out, Russell shifted course to the inside and drew off to score as the even money favorite. I'll take the double investment cash :)
Missed at Oaklawn before it was time for the BET of the Day in the second stakes at Laurel, the Not For Love Stakes. Whereshetoldmetogo looked easily best IF he ran back to his prior-to-layoff numbers. And the sharp bullet work for Brittany Russell - yes, brother Sheldon was in the irons - assured me he would. After being near the back early he swept up five wide on the turn, staying out of trouble and then accelerated to the wire as a much-the-best winner, rewarding me for my confident bet!
After missing at Oaklawn, again, it was time for the sixth at Gulfstream, an entry level allowance going a one-turn mile for three-year-olds. Trainer Mike Maker was bringing Army Wife back for her first try as a three-year-old and if she ran to her 2yo numbers she was a winner. Liked the fact that in her first try against winners at 2 she'd improved her maiden number AND the winner had come back to win a listed stakes, then run fourth in a Gr 3. And the best-of-75 bullet for 'Wife sealed the deal. Tracked the pace setters, moved three-wide into the stretch and got floated out while an upset candidate slipped up the rail. They dueled, PHOTO FINISH! Got the bob and Tyler G had his third winner on the day while I notched my fourth victory.
About twenty minutes later it was time for the Grade 2 Azeri at Oaklawn and Kentucky Oaks champion Shedaresthedevil was making her 4yo debut for trainer Brad Cox. The way the race played out was as interesting to me as the result. The main rival for 'Devil was Letruska who was drawn inside of her as the Oaks champ was widest of the seven. Looked to me like Letruska would be unopposed on the front end under Joel Rosario while Florent Geroux would stalk her from the outside. But when the gates sprung open it was Geroux who shot to the front, denying Rosario the lead. He now had to stalk. The two laid it down in the lane, but Shedaresthedevil would not be denied. Remember this jockey duel for later!
Missed at Laurel before winning the next three in a row. Second time starter Bears Watching was TONS the best at odds on in a MSW for 3yo at Gulfstream. So very impressive the talk was he'll resurface in stakes company. Right back with an odds-on winner at Aqueduct when Devious Mo was much the best. Note the ticket has the "Twin Spires" logo - I've taken to using both platforms on Saturdays. My "policy" is that with all Stronach tracks (Gulfstream, Laurel, and Santa Anita) I use the money in my Xpressbet account; all others I use the money I was given and am still using it, and have made it grow :) Then at Laurel, Kiss The Girl drew off in the Conniver Stakes to give me three wins in Maryland for the day.
After two misses it was time for the "Best Bet" at Santa Anita, and interestingly it came in a maiden race on a first time starter. Bob Baffert was sending out Triple Tap who was a half brother to champion American Pharoah with top So Cal rider Flavian Prat on board. Add in that the royally bred colt had fired back-to-back bullet moves, and three bullets in his last four works, which included not one but two moves from the gate in :59 and change....that's running my friend. In a very short field, drawn in the open air box he just looked really solid. He was bet that way and won for fun. Talk immediately began on TVG if there was time for him to get on the Triple Crown trail. Very impressive.
After a miss at Laurel I scored in another stakes at Oaklawn. Found it interesting that the feature at Gulfstream was a listed event carrying a $75K purse, while the seventh at Oaklawn was a listed handicap with a $500K purse. I thought any one of four could win but gave the edge to Silver State from the Steve Asmussen barn. It was a terrific race and he edged clear late to produce my TENTH winning ticket on the day.
Then came one of the most exciting races of the day. It was the eighth from Aqueduct, just a second level allowance, but as I've often said, you don't have to be wagering on a Grade 1 million dollar Breeders' Cup race to get paid! In this 6 1/2 furlong sprint for second level runners Mihos was listed at 6/1 in the program. And I remarked that this seemed "off" to me because he'd already WON at this level, and had never been worse than fourth facing both third level and stakes company. Looked to be a good pace to run at and I thought it was certainly a line-maker error that he was such generous odds. But as they left the gate he was 6/1. I had gone in with a triple investment because the "one to beat" on paper, and I was sure the public would gravitate to him was a Bill Mott runner. Now Mott is a Hall of Fame trainer and he's having a fabulous meet at Gulfstream. BUT at Aqueduct he was a mere 3-for-39 and today's rider was 0-for-13 for Mott over the last two years. Add in that Mihos had posted a best-of-98 bullet for today - just looked solid to me. But as they hit the far turn the Mott horse was moving to the front and Mihos was still near the back. At the furlong pole Mihos had begun to run, but still not liking what I was seeing. Then like a fire had been lit he hit overdrive and was flying. "I've got a real chance" I thought and I jumped up off the sofa as I watched on the big screen. Inside the final 200 yards he caught the Mott horse and drew off under a hand ride. WHOOOO HOOOO. The triple investment on the $14.40 payoff mean I'd be credited with more than $100 in my account - WOW!
My head was still spinning as the prices were posted and the horses headed to the gate for the Gulfstream feature, the Silks Run Stakes....a five furlong sprint on the turf. Carotari had won this race last year and he looked ready to move forward second off the shelf for trainer Brian Lynch who was 31% with 2nd off the bench runners. Made me feel even better when Acacia Courtney commented that the field he beat last year looked deeper than this years. Right to the front and never was worried as he made yet another triple investment ticket a winning one!
Out west to Santa Anita where I won again, albeit with a minimum bet...but a win's a win....in a mile and a quarter turf allowance on Big Buzz. Close, but none the less his number went up. Thought I had Whitmore in the Hot Springs at Oaklawn as he shot for his FIFTH consecutive win in this stakes, but he got nailed in the final strides. And then the second "OH MY" race of the day. It was a non-winners of three lifetime going a mile on the turf. And much like earlier, the DRF line put him at what I thought was a generous 7/2 price. He was the ONLY one in here who'd NOT been in conditioned company and he'd shown talent on the grass. Sure, off the layoff but trainer George Weaver won with 23% of those. I made him my "Day-Maker" with a triple investment. Even Announcer Pete said as the field hit the far turn that the major story line would be who would get through in the lane. Jockey Edgard Zayas waited patiently and instead of circling the field. A seam opened and he shot Danzing Dunhill through. Inside the sixteenth pole he hit the front while the other closers were trying to gain wide on the course. Too late, and as he crossed the wire the final odds were 6/1, just like Mihos! OH MY.
Another $100 and change winner - can you even believe it? I was beside myself! One last race before we had to leave for the hockey game and it was the featured Grade 2 Rebel. Because of the way the day turned out I'll give myself a pass for the decision I made. But I really liked Bob Baffert's lightly raced colt Concert Tour. As I watched the TVG broadcast everyone raved about the favorite and I didn't think he was as good as everyone said. The betting also made him the heavy choice and with Florent Geroux on board the confirmed front runner, from the rail, I thought he'd gun to the front - as Geroux had done with Shedaresthedevil - and Joel Rosario - who'd chased him - would stalk to the stretch and have to fight to get by. Didn't want to change the bet, but with a healthy profit already in the bank I decided to back down from a "prime time" bet to a double investment. THIS time it was Rosario who turned the tables on Geroux as HE gunned Concert Tour to the front. As they hit the far turn the two of them looked ready to duel to the wire. But then I noted that Geroux was asking his horse for more while Rosario was sitting montionless. Opened up in the lane and won as TONS the best. Sigh....can't make all great decisions, but I DID have my fifteenth - oh my - winner and I DID cash for nearly $30.
Missed in a Gr 3 turf sprint while at the hockey game, but while watching the action on the ice they were in the gate for the featured Grade 1 Beholder Mile which marked the first race of Swiss Skydiver's 4yo season. I'd read that this race was NOT where they had planned to go, and that her most recent work had been TOO FAST. Both bad signs. But watching and reading online the connections had said that she was kicking down the barn doors and was ready to run. That they would not only run her early but also ship across the country said a lot to me. Breaking from the rail jockey Robbie Albarado was patient, sitting fourth awaiting the right moment. As they spun out of the turn and into the lane the first and second runners separated and he shook the reigns. Without a deep breath suddenly Swiss Skydiver was in front and LONG GONE. Hand ridden through the lane she was tons the best and put the cherry on top the sundae for a SIXTEEN-WIN day. WOW, what a day.
So you can see from the numbers why I said after the results Sunday that I couldn't be unhappy with the week's results :)
Sunday March 14
Started off Sunday by going wire to wire in a maiden claiming turf sprint for 3yo with Work Ethic at 9/5 odds. But that was it for the day as I missed on the other four.
Still for the week I hit a 50% win average (see top of entry) and cashed out for the week at close to $300 in profits. I'll take that ANY week. WHAT a week :)
Week 15 Highlights
Social Media.....
Very little on the social media front this week, but the one incident was a sweet one. On Saturday morning as I watched the Handicapping Show from Gulfstream before the big day started, Ron Nicoletti remarked to start what is called the "Lightning Round" of tidbits of news by saying that this segment has become popular with fans and that it was appreciated by the two of them. Then Acacia Courtney followed that up by saying they always like to hear from fans and that their work is appreciated. It was another instance where, and I had thought of this often when I was teaching in the classroom how nice it was when someone took the time to say they liked what I was doing. She had no longer finished commenting when I opened my Twitter account and sent her a message that I too enjoyed the segment and also that I thought her insights into the races was great. Minutes later she replied in what I'm sure was an honest and heart-felt appreciation :)
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