Saturday March 20
You may be wondering, "Where is the week's recap" for Louisiana Derby WEEK? Well, to be honest, there's not a whole lot to write about my friends. It's ironic that last week when I was working on the week's totals I noted I was 54/27-4-9 and I thought "That's an awfully low number of second place finishes" and dismissed the thought after that. I've often remarked that it is so interesting that my win percentage always hovers around 35%, so if I have a low percentage time frame I KNOW that a higher than normal win pct. week is coming. But this is the first time that the runner-up numbers have ever "evened out." I had twenty-one bets at Gulfstream, not counting the big Saturday card from all over the country. I only won three races (one Wednesday, two Thursday, and shut out on both Friday and Sunday). But of those 21 races, TEN times I finished second. WOW. AND it was also interesting to me that of those ten runner-up finishes, four of the winners that beat me were double digit, "go figure" longshots. The only race from the week I will comment on was one of those second place runs. On Sunday, in the sixth race I had a minimum bet on Chao in a turf event. This is what my comments were:
As you can see, part of my hesitation was Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano. Going back five years he was the king of Gulfstream and there were two things you could count on.....(a) he'd give his mount every chance to win and (b) the price was always short because he won SO often. Then he changed jockey agents, and while that should not affect his actual riding - maybe the mounts he gets - he suddenly became THE most inconsistent rider of all time. The most consistent thing about his judgement was that it was inconsistent. MOST of the time he now got a less than ideal trip and almost always they were due to - in my opinion as a race watcher - that he made poor choices about where to go and when to move. Then every once in a while the "real" Javier Castellano shows up with a Hall of Fame ride. So these days you never know what you're going to get. And so we come to the Chao race. Watch the #2 from the moment they leave the gate......
WOW what a ride! THAT is what I'm talking about....sigh. So, on to the big day Saturday which was the highlight of the week.
Saturday March 20
It was a mixed bag for a decision I made on Friday. I knew I'd be playing Gulfstream, as I always do - and they did have three stakes. I would be, obviously playing the Fair Grounds with their big 14 race card and EIGHT stakes. But I wanted to have ore races so I looked at Laurel - pretty weak. Aqueduct was OK, but I knew I wouldn't have many picks there. Oaklawn, awfully weak as well. Hmmmm. Who else is running. Santa Anita - ok, I knew I wouldn't have a lot of picks there AND they run even later than the Fair Grounds. So looked at some of the "minor" tracks. Mahoning Valley in Youngstown, Ohio had some races that looked interesting and so did Hawthorne in Chicago. So I added those races. Like I say, mixed bag of results. The positive spin on playing those venues was it kept my racing interest and I had fewer gaps in the day. Here's how the day played out. The first race of the day was from Mahoning Valley and my pick was the 4/5 choice. Sat far to much off the pace....not so much because there was a lone front runner, but the pace was so slow you KNEW no one was going to catch him, and they didn't .... third. The next pick on the sheet was the opener from the Fair Grounds. They jumped RIGHT into stakes action with the Crescent City Oaks for La-bred three-year-old fillies. And I jumped right in with one of my "prime time bets." Australasia was a perfect three-of-three for trainer Brad Cox and she had not had anyone get within half a dozen lengths of her at the finish. On top of that, she'd improved her Beyers with each and every start. And of the thirty-one combined figures on the page, the only one that was even competitive with her last two came when one of today's rivals ran 2nd TO AUSTRALASIA and lost by seven lengths. She was the prohibitive 1/9 favorite as they hit the far turn and she was sitting just off the longshot leader. When asked to run spinning out of the turn she accelerated and got on even terms as heads turned for home. But the front runner was not going to give in without a fight. For the first time in her brief career the filly had to fight and the duel went on for nearly a full furlong before her talent and class took over as she edged clear late. Whew. But hey, a win is a win!
I came right back with my first bet at Gulfstream in their second race, a non-winners of three lifetime going six and a half furlongs for the lowest of price tags on the grounds, $6.25K. Two back Lady Fiolrella had won a nw2L going seven furlongs and what made it interesting to me was that in her race prior she'd run at a one-turn mile, then cut back to win convincingly. Following the win, she stretched out to a one-turn mile last time....and now today the cut back. The gates opened and quickly she was at the back. Moved four wide on the turn, caught the leader in the lane.....and edged clear late. Two in a row :)
The second at the Fair Grounds was a MSW for 3yo and my top choice, Alejandro made his move, collared the leader and then edged clear.....whoooo hoooo, three in a row. WAIT - INQUIRY and objection. Against who? Me, that can't be. They showed the pan view and I'm thinking, what are they possibly looking at? Then they showed the head on view. In mid-stretch the 2nd place horse comes out TO ME, and my horse reacts and moves slightly inward as they brushed ever so slightly, and then I took off to win by daylight. That CAN'T be what there's a problem with. But the longer they looked, the more I was thinking, "you've got to be kidding me." Down he came. SO BOGUS. Watch the video highlights - I included the stretch run of the race. I had a 6/1 longshot at Gulfstream and he ran like it. Then again at Mahoning I had the prohibitive 4/5 favorite....moved to the leader four wide on the turn, then blew the turn into the lane. Now some half dozen lengths back he ran evenly to the wire. WOW. Passed the next at the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream and we were ready for the fourth at Mahoning Valley. This was a nw4L event and sure you had to be concerned that Golden Ready had lost his first TEN starts of his career. But, then he rattled off three straight going wire to wire. After the third win he had been away slowly and didn't get the lead, then last time off a layoff he had the lead and weakened. Sketchy to be sure, but in THIS match-up today....he was the LONE speed and drawn in the outside box of six where he'd have a clear shot to the front. LONG GONE....easy, and the $5.80 payoff made me nearly even at the Ohio track. I'm ok with that record :)
Missed at the FG and Gulfstream before it was time for the fifth from New Orleans. In her last, Tulane Tryst had debuted chasing the loose on the lead favorite Wild For Wycliffe. 'Tryst was away slowly, rallied four wide and ran by the leader. 'Wycliffe had earned a big 82 in her debut try, then when third posted a 78 while Tryst earned the 82 this time. I thought with a clean break she'd handily run down the speedster today. Tracked the leaders in fifth to the far turn, swung out five wide to get clear and then ran them all down to score in a nice win. Missed in races at Aqueduct, Mahoning - with a 1/2 runner who had last been 2nd in the Gr 1 Spinaway and was now facing Ohio-breds in a $40K stakes but was outrun by a 6/1 filly without any excuses....wow - and at Gulfstream before it was time for the next in New Orleans. It was a MSW on the turf for 3yo and at first glance I was a big leery of the five losses already posted by Hidden Enemy. But upon closer inspection, her "worst" Beyer was earned in a stakes race, as a maiden. The other four would win for fun....AND she got Irad today. She was near the back early to the turn. Moved up easily then rallied four wide and edged clear in the final 16th while under a firm hand ride. Tripled the bet to score for the fifth time today.
Missed at odds on at Aqueduct before getting my final win in Youngstown. Reinvestedinterest was the DRF Best of the Day and the top pick of the other two selectors. The four numbers this runner had earned in the his career would easily win for fun. And that's exactly what he did again. Moments later they were in the gate at Santa Anita and I won again as None Above The Law was a well deserving favorite. Swept up the rail from third on the turn and won going away.
Missed on four races - twice from Gulfstream before the stakes action re-started at the Fair Grounds. The opener had been the state-bred Oaks for 3yo fillies and this, the Crescent City Derby was the colt companion race. Brett Calhoun's unbeaten and untested colt, Who Took The Money looked MUCH the best on paper. In his sprint debut and again in his next around two turns he sat patiently off the pace and blew by to win. Anything close to that last race 85 would win for fun. But as the horses exited the tunnel onto the track he tossed the jockey and ran off. Got collared, and was led to the gate. In the race he was saving ground into the far turn but had no where to go. The rider waited patiently and when the seam opened up the wood he took it and burst to the front. Then his stable-mate came closing in the final two hundred yards, but he was too good and held on for his third consecutive win.
Right back less than five minutes later it was an entry level allowance even on the turf at Gulfstream. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is "known" for his debut runners NOT being fully cranked, but Tiesto had won at first asking at today's mile and a sixteenth distance. Off the shelf he came here as a 3yo and was a just-miss 2nd in the Gr 3 Palm Beach. Later in the spring the connections caught Derby fever and he ran on the main track in the Gr 2 Bluegrass to no avail. He'd been re-grouped and was returning to the turf today for Mott who's having his best-ever Gulfstream winter. He was away slowly, surged four wide into the stretch, got to the front narrowly and held off the late challengers with my triple investment bet riding on him for my 9th win (ten if you count the bogus DQ!).
After a no-show performance in the Benson by my pick at 5/1 it was time for the Gulfstream feature, the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie. The program favorite was Pacific Gale who had quite the story going for her. In her last start, the Grade 2 Inside Information here on the Pegasus undercard she had been hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney's top choice at 16/1! Why the long odds? Well, in spite of running "well" she'd been on a 16-race, two-and-a-half year drought. Oh my. But she won that day. Now suddenly off one surprising win she was the favorite? I don't think so! But as I went up and down the entries it was pretty obvious, even with her prior losing efforts she was easily the legitimate favorite. She left the gate at 4/5 odds and was ready to roll into the far turn but had no were to go. She was on the rail and being boxed in by another on her outside. Jockey Junior Alvarado waited patiently and when a seam opened at the furlong pole he shifted out and once Pacific Gale saw open race track she exploded and won going away!
Missed on three straight including a nose photo loss by Owendale at 4/5 in the New Orleans Classic after the live running looked like he'd won, only to agree with the photo judges when watching the slo-mo replay. Then it was time for my BET of the Day. When Todd Pletcher's Colonel Liam won the Gr 3 Tropical Turf he was pointed for the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf and he was my BEST Bet that day. He scored and now today he was entered in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial at the Fair Grounds. I found it interesting that three years ago Chad Brown's Bricks and Mortar had won an allowance at Gulfstream, then the Pegasus Turf and came here to win the Muniz before going on to win the Breeders' Cup Turf and earn Horse of the Year Honors. Could a repeat be in the works? I thought Colonel Liam just laid over the locals. My only concern as I told Keith as we watched the post parade was that he'd get trapped and run into trouble in a big field like the Muniz had drawn. But I added that if I trusted anyone to get the right trip it was Irad Ortiz. He got to the rail quickly but was also next to last through the first turn. He moved up easily into fourth as they approached the far turn, and then as the field began to spin out of the turn he angled off the rail, into the two path splitting horses and took dead aim on the loose-on-the-lead front runner. Ironically it was this EXACT same scenario that Bricks and Mortar had faced in this race and he was narrowly up in time. No such narrow margins today as he was handled confidently under a hand ride to win as MUCH the best. I was doubly pleased with the result because (a) somehow the crowd had let him float up to better than 3/5 and (b) I'd upped the originally planned $30 wager to the full $50 "BET of the Week" amount. Cashed for a whopping $85 and my day was complete regardless of the outcome of the other races.
Missed on five in a row before closing out the day with my 12th winner on the day in Santa Anita's featured Grade 3 San Luis Rey going a mile and a half on the turf. The last time United had run had been in the Breeders' Cup, so he did have a layoff to work with. BUT he'd fired several times in the past off the shelf. He was a multiple Gr 2 winner and had an excellent record over the Arcadia turf.
For the day I finished 13-for-35, a sharp 37% win percentage. Next week, it's Florida Derby Day and we'll hosting several friends at the races with us at a table on the rail!
No comments:
Post a Comment