Closing Week: March 24 - 27
It was a self-imposed shortened week to end the meet as I've almost always found that to play the final day's card on Sunday following Derby Day is anti-climatic. So, as is my usual habit I handicapped the Sunday card, posted them for anyone who follows my selections but I had concluded my winter season as of the final race on Saturday.
Wednesday March 24
I started the week off by chasing the 4/5 favorite, I was the 7/5 second choice. Got within a head on the turn, but then he re-broke and ran away. Best of the rest. The lone winner on the day came in the fifth race, a starter allowance turf sprint. I noted in my analysis that Fully Loaded had won multiple times on the turf but ONLY when he tracked the speed, not when he went to the front. Certainly I thought, the trainer and jockey have talked about this, right? He did stalk the pace in third to the top of the lane. Got a narrow advantage, then was all out to hold off the late runners. Cashed for nearly $30 on the lone winner of the day as the last two picks were well back in the field across the wire.
Thursday March 25
Today as I began my handicapping I noted that leading rider Irad Ortiz was back. He was closing in on the record for wins at a single meet by a rider and I thought, "You know....he's going to be going all out and you have to believe his agent has booked him nothing but "LIVE" mounts." So I decided unless there was exceptional evidence to the contrary that today would be an "Irad-Day" for handicapping. Who is Irad on - that's the pick! The first two races were minimum plays and he ran well back in the opener and was a good second at 4/1 in the next. Passed the third race as Irad didn't have a mount and no one appealed to me. Then in the fourth it was just the kind of race that I thought I could win today with my "outside the box" thinking today. Ghostly Beauty had gone 1-for-18 heading into her last when she finally got the elusive second win in a nw2L for a $16K price tag. It's been my experience that as a claiming kind of horse moves up off wins your likely to win at about half the maiden claiming price tag, and if you're going from two-lifetime to three-lifetime you also have to drop at least one notch on the claiming scale. So when Ghostly Beauty was entered in this $12.5K 3L I thought she had a legitimate chance. I most probably would NOT have bet her had this not been "Irad Day" but he was on and she fit. Swung four wide into the lane, dueled and was JUST up on the wire as the 4/5 favorite.
In the very next race I again might have passed, but I noted it was the day that I was blindly going with the main man. And in this starter optional claimer I'd bet Brasstown in both his last two at this one turn mile and he quite both times as the favorite. The horse that beat him both times was in again, but I liked Irad's horse Trapazoid as an alternative. Tracked Brasstown in third to the turn, took over, opened up and by the time the horse who'd beaten B'town the last two got rolling it was far too late. And at a nice 3/1 price on Trapazoid....wish I'd doubled up here, but still cashed for over $20 on my second Irad-win of the day.
Was never in it in the fifth, then I had my first double investment of the day in the day's sixth, a non-winners of three lifetime five furlong turf sprint. I was a bit concerned that in BOTH of Star Weaver's last two starts he'd been "away a step slow," and both with Irad up. In a five furlong event any slight miscue like that is enough to eliminate your chances. Figured he would stalk the pace and get a good run on the leaders in the lane. He tracked the leaders after being away a touch slowly but not enough to cost him. Four of them raced to the wire and he was just up in the final strides.
Missed with a minimum bet in the eighth and then had one final play in the ninth, my second of two added money investments. Foxxy Belle was first off the claim for Mike Maker in this allowance event and I thought Irad would get an ideal trip. Was fifth of the seven early, but less than three off the pace. Made his move just past the furlong pole and held them off as the 9/5 favorite.
So for the day, I'd cashed on four-of-eight with Irad as the key, and made over $30 in profits. Nice day at the races. Not so much on Friday as I didn't cash a single ticket. Sigh.....but that probably means I'll do well tomorrow on the BIG DAY!
Florida Derby Day
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Kim and I arrived at Gulfstream with our buddy Keith at about 11 am, a half hour before the first race. And with Kim still hobbling on her knee which she had operated on about a month ago we got a wheel chair for her to get her to our table on the rail. It wasn't too much longer before both the other two couples we were looking forward to spending the day with - Jeff & Gina Nelson and Ben & Melissa Boorom got there. Our oldest son Jeff and his wife Antoinette were scheduled to arrive about 2 pm from their home in Fort Myers. We were talking between the races early on and a Gulfstream photographer came around and took our photo.
Missed on the first two races before the fourth, which was the Sand Springs for older fillies & mares going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. My pick in here was Saffie Joseph's Sweet Bye and Bye. I liked that she'd run big numbers in her most recent races while stalking the pace. Admittedly she had not won any of those recent races but today she'd have Irad Ortiz in the irons and I thought that would make the difference. Got the ideal trip as Ortiz rated her in fourth on the rail saving ground to the top of the lane. Moved out into the clear and drew off as everyone in our party cheered heartily our first winner!
Came right back in the fifth, the Sir Shackleton Stakes going seven furlongs on the main track. Basin had shown real quality as a 3yo last year and had even had thoughts of running in the Triple Crown. He'd won the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga at this 7f trip for trainer Steve Asmussen and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd in the Grade 1 Rebel at three. But a no-show effort in the Bluegrass took him off the trail and now he was in the care of Todd Pletcher. While he was coming off a long break, that has always been a strong angle for Pletcher here in the winter. He tracked the pace 4-wide into the lane, was between horses at the furlong pole and three of them dueled right in front of us at the 16th pole.....then Basin surged to the front and was clear by a narrow margin and we'd won two in a row! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Non-threatening efforts in the 6th, 7th, and 8th before a good 4th at 11/1 in my longshot of the day in the 10th. Everyone continued to enjoy the day but several times during this span the conversation turned to winning a race. I assured the group that it has been my experience that on any given day I WILL get my share of wins and that in my opinion the better races were yet to come where we'd have the best chance of winning. And the first of those big opportunities came in the 11th, the Cutler Bay for three-year-olds on the turf going a mile. Annex had been an impressive winner in his debut for Bill Mott, so much so that he went off as the favorite in his first try against winners in the Palm Beach Stakes. The figures the son of Constitution had earned in those two races would beat 37 of the 38 numbers on the page. I made him MY BET of the Day. Tracked the pace in an ideal fourth position to the stretch. Got into the clear and was surging as they passed us. I really didn't doubt he'd win, but the margin of victory was narrow indeed. Still, we'd won and that made everyone excited again!
I thought we had a real chance to upset the Gulfstream Park Oaks with Todd Pletchers turf-to-dirt front running filly Con Lima. But she was a step slow and then was squeezed back by a long shot. She got to the front before they hit the backstretch but as is often the case, the damage was done and she faded late. Beginning from Thursday on I was having an internal dilemma about the Florida Derby which was the next, and final race of the day. Keith and I had been at both the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth to see Greatest Honour win. He'd been especially impressive in the FOY which finished at the first finish line with a short stretch run. As a closer that made it a difficult task for him and as we'd watched the race midway on the turn we said "he'll never get there" but he flew by everyone to win going away. With today's race at 9f and the full length of the stretch he seemed like a slam dunk. But I just had my doubts. First, just track psychology.....EVERYONE thought he'd win for fun, and it's often in races like that, especially with three-year-olds that this does not happen. Then when I looked at his speed figures, they were "good" but not great. A chink in the armor? Friday I read he was trying to become the first colt E-V-E-R to win the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth, AND Florida Derby. There's a reason that doesn't happen. And as I told people, he already had enough points to get to the Kentucky Derby so any sign of trouble he would not be pushed to the max....if he won because he was simply best, then the connections would like that. If not, then that's ok....the "big dance" is the first Saturday in May. Then I read about Todd Pletcher's colt. Here is my analysis....
Uh oh is right! Could it be so easy that the stars were just aligned today? And while it had nothing to do with the race itself, when I'd created the banner for today's selection sheet I'd used Always Dreaming as my photo! WHAT!!!! This was a no-brainer, right? Adding into the intrigue was that when Always Dreaming was coming into the race I did not like his chances at all until I read about how a So Cal handicapper, Jeff Seigal was quoted as saying he'd seen all of Pletcher's 3yo that year and Always Dreaming was the one that impressed him the most. AND Known Agenda would be a price. As the race got closer everyone said "are you sticking with Known Agenda or going with Greatest Honour?" And I told them I was sticking to the price play. As the field moved down the backstretch I could see that Greatest Honour was NOT getting the smoothest of trips and Known Agenda was getting a dream ride. Just his action made me think he had a lot of energy for the run to the wire. Before they even got to the far turn I leaned over (I was standing on a chair) and tapped my buddy Jeff Nelson on the shoulder. He cocked his head back and I said decisively, "WE ARE GOING TO WIN!" Known Agenda swung into the clear and began gobbling up ground. Surged past right in front of us and drew off. And check the payout......
Everyone cashed and cashed for a nice sum of money! For the day I finished with nine wins from twenty-four picks as I'd played a couple races from Aqueduct and the Turfway card which had several stakes races. In Kentucky I won with four of eight including two stakes events.
That's a wrap on the Championship Season and it was a great time. So happy I got to be at so many of the big days since the holidays. Now it's on to the Triple Crown season and then the summer where I'll play Monmouth every live day (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday).
Florida Derby Day Highlights
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