Week 13: February 24 - 28
It was a big week of racing action as we closed down the third month of the Championship Meet; I can't believe we are three/fourth's of the way through the best part of the racing year. But it was a good week for handicapping, and best of all we got to be AT the races on Fountain of Youth Day. Had a good day at the track on Saturday and WOULD have had a much better day but missed with two out of town "prime time" bets, but still scored a profit. And the Sunday it was one longshot after another after the second race winner won at 2/5. That brought my numbers for the week back to "normal." Can't complain about these stats though.......
Wednesday February 24
The week got off to a quick start as I hit the opener at 9/2, but didn't bet it. Then in the second race I had my "Upset Special" of the week. The Peter Walder barn has been on fire of late and I didn't like any of the program favorites. The problem in this 7f claimer was he had TWO entries. I decided to lean to High Heater who was making his second start for Walder and had jockey Miguel Vasquez who's winning at a near 30% clip for the barn. I liked that this horse was going turf to dirt - in fact hadn't been on dirt in more than a year - and Walder boasted 40% winners with that move. Pressed to the turn, took over and opened up and then held off the quickly closing stable mate. Note the upset price!
That's right, and I doubled the bet so I cashed for $75 to kick off the week's wagers. WHOOO HOOO. I came right back with Shoug in the third who was dropping out of a much richer try at the distance off a break. Looked for the Tyler G runner to run well in this turf sprint. Tracked the 9/1 front runner into the stretch, dueled with him and put him away late.
While he was the 9/5 favorite, I'd tripled the bet and scored for over $40. At that point I had to leave for my monthly eye-injection and didn't see the rest until later that evening. Ran 2nd at 2/1 with my third bet behind a 13/1 wire-to-wire winner then won the sixth in a blanket finish where my 7/2 runner out bobbed the favorite. Cashed for more than $20 to close the winning picks. For the day I was 3-for-8 and profited over $50.
Thursday February 25
The third race was my first pick of the day but I didn't have a lot of confidence in Say Cheese in this nw2L for 3yo. But he was dropping from open company into this restricted event for Larry Rivelli and had top rider Irad Ortiz up. Took over and ran away as the 8/5 favorite.
That was it for the day, but I SHOULD have had another when my horse in the fourth Vitaemi raced cleanly down the middle of the track. Javier Castellano in search of his first win on the comeback, split horses and as the three of them dueled he cut off the rail runner almost unseating the rider. Immediately the INQUIRY sign went up and they looked at it over and over again. OBVIOUS decision and then the announcement - no change in the order. I reached out to Announcer Pete and his reply was that the stewards didn't think it impacted the finish order and "didn't want to punish the bettors " - wow....what about the bettors who had one of the TWO horses that were impacted when the "cheater" caused the issue with reckless race riding? Not happy.
Friday February 26
After the one-win (should have been two) Thursday I kicked off Friday with a sharp winner. Ray Arewethereyet looked very strong to me. In late January she'd debuted at a bet-down 6/1 and was a neck behind my top choice who'd looked very solid in their own right. For the just-miss second she earned a 74 Beyer that was well clear of the par for this level (67). AND he had a bullet work. And further, that big effort came despite early trouble and a four-wide stretch drive. I tripled the bet on her. From the moment the gates burst open she was under pressure and that's almost always the kiss of death late in the race. But as heads turned for home she opened up willingly and edged clear late.
Missed when third at 3/2 and 2nd at 4/5 in the next two before a nine furlong entry level allowance for sophomores. Anytime you see a race at this distance, at this time of the year, in allowance conditions for sophomores you HAVE to believe that the connections are seeing IF maybe, just maybe they have a runner that can contend in the spring classics. Todd Pletcher sent out Known Agenda who had been the favorite three weeks ago in the Grade 3 Sam Davis, and honestly didn't show a lot. But today he got the anti-bleeding medication, Lasix and got blinkers. He moved easily around the turn and ran away by a pole. Then the "OBJECTION" sign went up. Jockey Paco Lopez had been the runner-up, a pole behind, but when Known Agenda entered the stretch he ducked inside of Lopez's horse, while at least a length clear. No change - and it was interesting when Ortiz came back to the winner's circle he was very animated in his gestures to Lopez for the bogus claim.
My next scheduled bet was in the sixth, but I had the live stream going as I ran through the stakes entries for Saturday. The fifth was a maiden claiming event for 3yo and Thorover looked like the one to beat from three straight numbers that would require a lifetime best from someone to beat him. But I wasn't convinced enough to bet him after he'd been running at GPW then dropping to the bottom of the barrel today. But as I listened to the beginning of the analysis BOTH Ron Nicoletti and hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney talked about what a standout he was. I looked at all the payouts and check what others thought....everyone thought he was the obvious winner. So I doubled the bet and watched him clear the field quickly and go wire to wire.
Granted he was the 1-2 favorite, but still it was an extra five dollar profit and another win to the totals for the month. The final selection of the day (I originally had one in the tenth but he scratched) was in the sixth, a starter allowance. And as I said in the analysis, you might think that Austrian's last out figure was uncharacteristic, but being from the white-hot Danny Gargan barn (winning at nearly 40%) with Luis Saez up who wins at a 42% for Gargan, I thought he was a standout.
For the day an excellent 4-for-6 with a profit of nearly $40, a great way to head into the big day.
What a great day today turned out to be. But I must set the scene....Thursday morning Kim had surgery on her knee and came out of it in great shape. Had some pain during the night and took some medications. Then at about 4 am she was in the bathroom and I heard her say, "Mark, come here" and the tone of her voice immediately told me something was wrong. As I got to her she began to slide back against the wall. I held her as her eyes rolled up, her breaths gasped and she began to shudder while softly moaning. Then she lay there motionless, and I swear she wasn't breathing. I was petrified. Finally after pleading with her to wake up she came to. I was so shaken, we called the EMT and they assured us it was a reaction to the surgery and the drugs. Later in the morning we went to the doctor and to physical therapy and she was in good shape. But it was nearly the entire day Friday that left me on edge and very unnerved. So having a real track day could not have come at a better time. The first post was at 11:30 so Keith and I left about 10 am. Had seats right on the finish line and it was a Chamber of Commerce day. Missed at a big 11/1 in the opener (Pletcher - Ortiz, go figure) then in the second I liked Todd Pletcher's Nocturnal. He was being heavily bet so I upped the bet. Right to the front and much the best. Good call Mr. Mark.
In the third, it was the Herecomesthebride Stakes for 3yo fillies and I thought Spanish Loveaffair for Mark Casse looked good enough to bet, but not for more than the minimum. Rated behind the speed to the top of the stretch, split horses and drew off by open lengths. As she was jogging back to the winner's circle and we saw Casse enter the enclosure the announcement came that the INQUIRY sign had been lit. For what? They showed approaching the far turn the #4 horse had tried to muscle up the rail inside of the winner who ran a straight line; then that horse came out and bumped HER and nearly clipped heels. So obvious that THIS is a no-call.....especially after letting the near-unseating of the rider on Thursday go. But they kept looking and looking. All the other horses had long since left, so that had to be a good sign, right? NO....DQ'd. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione raised his arms, palms up at the announcement, incredulous. I could tell the trainer was NOT happy. I read shortly thereafter on Twitter he'd immediately filled out the paperwork to appeal. And later in the day I ran into Casse and told him I thought he was robbed, and he replied, "Frankly I did too."
WOW...I can't tell you how many times something like this happens at the track and I know, I know, it has NOTHING to do with the rest of the day but I've seen this send the day into a tailspin. I lost seven in a row as we watched 2 1/2 hours of racing go by. Still Keith and I remarked it was simply good to be at the track, even without winners. And I added I KNEW that the wins would come....hopefully today, but if not, soon. At nearly 3 pm the third race at the Fair Grounds was a maiden special turf event and I liked Brad Cox's Code Duello. Only for the minimum, but when he wired the field at 2/1 I was more, MORE than delighted to finally cash a ticket. But before I had a chance to head down to the windows I watched a second race on my phone, this time from Oaklawn. Their fifth was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event and I noted that EITHER Steve Asmussen's General Trev was going to be a much-the-best winner or would be far, far up the track. I liked his chances and doubled the bet. He came splashing down the middle of the track at the top of the stretch and ran away as MUCH the best. Two in a row, YOWZA. Moments later it was time for the next graded event at Gulfstream Park, the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile. Last year I'd watched Todd Pletcher's Fearless win back-to-back races and then he was shipped to the Fair Grounds to run in the Grade 2 New Orleans. With so little experience, I thought Pletcher must have seen something big. He was right there in the stretch before getting checked and steadied. After some questionable rides and a failed attempt in Churchill's Gr 2 Stephen Foster going nine furlongs he was sent to the shelf. Today off the long layoff - a frequent Pletcher move - I thought that IF he could deliver on the promise of talent he'd flashed last year he could win this graded event. I was even more enthusiastic about him because the obvious favorite was Performer. I'd had him on Pegasus Day as one of two BIG bets as he laid over the Gr 3 Fred Hooper field on paper. But he was life and death to get the win over a moderate field. IF he didn't move forward and IF Fearless was as good as I thought, I could get a nice price. He was 9/2 in the program but enough fans saw what I saw to bet him down to just under 3/1. He tracked the pace into the stretch then ran away, holding the closers safely at bay.
As Mystic Guide was opening up at Oaklawn, the gates sprung on the 11th LIVE at Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Honey Fox. Got Stormy was my BEST of the Day on the Gulfstream card and as I explained to Keith prior to the day, unlike some times when I say, "This horse IS going to win" and that's why they are the "Best" of the Day, Got Stormy was the play because I BELIEVED she would run back to her best races, NOT because of what she'd shown of late. Since winning the Grade 1 Matriarch at Del Mar to top a fabulous 4yo campaign (8/4-3-1 with over $1.1 in earnings) she'd disappointed on several occasions. This led trainer Mark Casse to turn to turf sprints and she'd won two Grade 3 events before running last November in the Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint against the boys. Only beaten two lengths she obviously likes sprinting. But today it was back to the two-turn mile trip. Hmmmm. What did Casse see to make him return her to the original longer races? The fact that she'd blistered four of her last five works at Palm Meadows told me there WAS reason to believe she would return to her best. The main rival was a filly I'd had on Pegasus Day who was an impressive winner, but in retrospect the competition she beat that day (and in previous victories) was not the kind of horses Got Stormy had faced. As they spun into the stretch Got Stormy was perfectly positioned in second, took command and opened up. But then here came the challengers, including my last out previous pick.....PHOTO FINISH! But while it was a photo, I was sure she'd won. And she did.
That was three wins in her last four starts and when I went to see Hannah I was cashing for a total payout of nearly $120. The difference between Saturday being a good day with nearly 40% winners and a profit and a GREAT DAY with a big profit was decided in the next two races. I thought both Amy's Challenge in Oaklawn's Spring Fever Stakes and Ninety One Assault in the Fair Grounds' Dixie Poker Stakes were legitimate "prime time" plays like Got Stormy. Neither won (5th and 4th). In probably THE most disappointing result of the day, Gulfstream's Grade 2 Davona Dale going a one-turn mile for 3yo fillies featured Breeders' Cup champion Vequist who was pointing to the Kentucky Oaks. Sent off at 1/2 she showed little after the opening half mile and was eased late to finish ninth. With the odds on favorite off the board, obviously the winner would pay a nice price. BUT.....check this out: the wire-to-wire winner was 50/1, the runner-up was a "short" 9/1, the third horse was also 50/1 and the fourth place horse was 80/1. OH MY. SOMEONE had the $1 superfecta which paid over $140,000 for that single dollar, and someone also had the ten cent play which paid $14,000 - for a dime!
I didn't think that the Grade 3 The Very One was a very strong race so I took a shot with a Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz horse at 5/1 - ran eighth. Down to the final two races of the day. As the horses were warming up for the featured Grade 2 Fountain of Youth for three-year-olds hoping to reach the Florida Derby and then the Kentucky Derby, it was time for Oaklawn's featured Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, THEIR first step towards the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. 2yo champion and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, unbeaten Essential Quality was making his long awaited 3yo debut here. And it was interesting because today's event had been scheduled for President's Day but weather had postponed racing for not a week but two weeks. Still the Brad Cox colt looked much the best to me. He was given an ideal trip under Luis Saez and when asked to make his run he blew by the field to when with plenty left. This colt looks FOR REAL!
I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for almost $30. Now it was approaching post time for the Gulfstream feature. As Keith and I talked, this looked like EITHER Shug McGaughey's Greatest Honour would be equally as impressive as he'd been in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, or it was a "go figure" race. As I said, the fact that conservative McGaughey - who has often said he won't put a horse on the Derby trail unless he had a realistic chance. AND that he'd entered this colt in the Holy Bull off a maiden win told me everything I needed to know. My only concern here was would the closing running style get the right set-up again today, especially over Gulfstream's often speed favoring surface AND with the first finish line in play. As the horses raced through the turn Keith said, "He's not going to do it Dude, he's way too far back." I agreed. And then in a blink of an eye he was flying past horses and ran past the long time leader inside the final 100 yards to win going away. WOW. This colt ALSO looks for real :)
Closed the day with a rush winning eight of my last sixteen to produce a great result for the long afternoon and most pleasurable afternoon at the track.
Sunday February 28 - Bayakoa Stakes Day at Oaklawn Park
I was so excited for today. Prior to the big day of racing, I was excited to finally see Monomoy Girl return to the races. This race, like the Southwest had originally been planned for earlier this month. I had in fact seriously looked at flying to Arkansas to see her race. Good thing I did not pursue those plans because that weekend Arkansas was facing a terrific winter storm with over a foot of snow! Second, following the big Saturday I felt like I had some solid picks today at GP. In the 2nd, my first bet of the day I liked the favorite but thought she'd be WAY over bet compared to her chances of winning. Sure enough at 2/5 she broke slowly and had a tall task ahead. But she split horses at the furlong pole and ran away as tons the best. Well, at least I had her to pad my win stats for the week!
But that was it as the other winners on the the day paid: $70.80, $13.80, $34.40, $16.60, $16.00, $17.40, $6.80, $30.80, $6.00, $42.80, and $28.60. NOBODY could have had a good win percentage today. Finally it was time for the Grade 3 Bayakoa and I listened to all the pre-race analysis and finally decided to up the bet to the full $50 to win. Not to make money, I mean after all she was 1/9 at that point, but because I had that much confidence in here. She sat comfortably in third to the far turn, then I was a bit worried when she didn't glide to the front easily and jockey Florent Geroux went to the whip for a couple of reminders. But then suddenly it was like she shifted gears and she went from third to in front by daylight and galloped home the easiest of winners with plenty left. YOWZA. Made my day.
It was interesting, as they were leading up to the race I mentioned to Keith that they'd told the story that she'd been offered for sale following the Breeders' Cup and the new owners paid $9.7 million for her and then decided to bring her back to the races. WOW that's a big risk we agreed. One thing they mentioned in passing was that her new silks sported the colors of "MyRacehorse" a new and unique ownership group that is trying to build racing interest. I don't know much about it but I know the average fan can invest in big time horses. Then on Monday I saw an ad about this and followed the link only to discover that for less than $50 I can become a part owner of Monomoy Girl and go to her races, etc. So I signed up and when offered I WILL be investing. Probably in some others also as I saw that the group recently acquired my BEST of the Day from Saturday, Got Stormy.
Week 13 Highlights
Social Media Action
Got a little traction on the social media front this week, and from a couple of my favorite girls, as well as an old time very favorite. Let's start there. When I was at Cypress Bay High I ran the WISE program where kids got to pursue an interest outside the walls of the school building. I'll never forget the day I interviewed a potential candidate, a cute junior girl who told me that she played the harp. Really, I said, that's interesting. Yes, she said, I have several CD's out and have played all over the world. Thus was the beginning of a great friendship and relationship with Arami Malaise. We don't keep in touch as often now because she's not on Facebook much, but it was her birthday recently and she replied to my birthday wishes. Such a sweetie.
Speaking of, how about our girl Jillian. After her initial success with her children's book, she's now creating a series of books. She's about to release the second one and I reached out to her when she announced that upcoming publication.
While doing the football thing last fall one of the several new friends I made was Kelly, who was our trainer. She was a real hard worker and just a real sweet heart. She posted a couple pics late in the week and I messaged her how much I missed her and got the same back :)
And finally, my most favorite news anchor Lauren Pastrana. She hadn't posted me "fun pictures" of late but this week she posted something about wearing your favorite shoes. I replied because MANY years ago when teaching American Government I used to show the film "The American President" with Michael Douglas and Annette Beining. When he asks her out for the first time he asks his daughter what to say and she replied, "Tell her you like her shoes, women really like that." And since that day every time I see a woman with dress shoes or cute shoes I remark about them. ALWAYS get a smile and/or a reaction. And so I did to Lauren's post and very quickly got a reply back. Gotta love social media.
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