Gulfstream Park Championship Season: Cigar Mile Weekend

December 5 - 8

Well, after the stellar week we had last week it shouldn't come as a surprise that we returned to "normalcy" this weekend with a sub-par 29% win rate over the four days of racing. Not that far off as I had a dozen wins and NINE second place finishes.......

Thursday
I felt all week that unlike last week where I had "that feeling" that my picks were going to win, I felt this week that my horses "had a chance" to win. The week's opener saw run third at 5/2. I labeled Coldstream in the second as "the first solid bet of the week" and I even considered going "prime time" or more as I felt nearly certain he would win. But it was a maiden claimer for older for a cheap $25K price tag. Coldstream had missed for a first time tag of $50K on BC weekend - to be fair had trouble at the start before rallying to be second best, beaten a half length. I don't know about you but if I were the trainer of a $350K purchase and they'd just missed despite trouble for a $50K tag I'd be running back at that level or maybe even higher. Instead he was dropped in class today. Suspicious, so I went for a triple investment as a compromise. Right to the front while being pressured, but it looked like he didn't even notice the pressure. Shook away in the lane and was easily best at an inflated 4/5 price.

Two passes and a scratch took us to a 5th place finish at 4/1 before my next "solid" play in Race 7. Mr. Narcissistic wasn't a "good bet" by all standard handicapping schools of thought, but he was 5-for-8 on the synthetic, 4/3-1-0 at the distance, and since moving into the Saffie Joseph barn he'd won 5-of-7. Was a very likely winner, but at a likely short price. Sure enough, sent off at 3/5 he tracked the leaders into the lane, dueled briefly - though I use that term in quotes because the rider was only hand riding him - and then he drew away. Missed on the last two to finish 2-for-6. Mediocre by my standards.

Friday
To be honest and completely transparent, today was Opening Day at Oaklawn and I did handicap the races and made some bets. But - and again, to be honest - because I missed on them all I decided to label them "fun bets" and NOT count them in the winter totals. Criticize me if you want, but (a) I don't think there are many readers of this nor I don't think many of you care; and (b) in the grand scheme of things with over 30,000 bets in the books, six won't do much change to the numbers :) Started the Gp day with a non-competitive fifth at 7/1 - with Irad Ortiz up, interesting. Passed the third and fourth before scoring with Turn Up The Trees who was an interesting story. Last winter he debuted for Todd Pletcher in a MSW and scored as the heavy favorite. The $500K sales grad had not won since and now was in a new barn running for a basement nw2L $12.5K tag. Confidently handled and drew off through the lane to the signature call from Announcer Pete, "EEEEEEAAASSSYYY Money1'

In the 6th, just like with Coldstream yesterday, Hollywood Mayhem looked awfully formidable and I did consider a "prime time" bet, but like yesterday it was a 2yo maiden claimer for a cheap $17.5K. So, like yesterday I went with a triple investment. Was 2/5 and ran off under mild urging. Missed on the fourth and final bet, and like the way the week was going (and went), I won 50% of the bets and lost a little bit of money.

Saturday
The "big race" at Gulfstream today was the 2-mile H.Allen Jerkens and my top choice was an early scratch. But on the national scene the highlight was the Grade 2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct with three other graded stakes on the undercard. I also handicapped the Fair Grounds because one of the horse I'm part owner through MyRacehorse.com was a likely winner. Missed the first two bets, both in NY before Treaty of Rome won as the 3/2 favorite in R3 at the Big A. I was a good third at Gulfstream despite leaving the gate at 10/1 as we reached the first of the stakes at Aqueduct......

The Grade 3 Go For Wand for older drew eight runners and as I noted, I'd only feel confident tossing one of them for the win. But I gave the edge to Todd Pletcher's Tizzy In The Sky who was 2nd in this race last year. I thought Flavian Prat would take the speedy mare right to the front and have to hold off Chad Brown's Occult. Was beaten to the front by a longshot so Prat tracked that one to the turn, spurted clear in the lane and looked long gone until the 16th pole when Occult was flying.....held on narrowly for the score as the second choice.

The third at Gulfstream was a 2yo maiden claimer that came down to one question - which version of Episode would we get today? The "good" Episode would win for fun, the "average" Episode would struggle. For me I thought that since this was a synthetic sprint and all three of her good efforts came in synthetic sprints we'd get the "good" version. Right to the front, opened up by daylight and coasted all the way home.

Missed on the next four, and as I noted earlier two of those were prices (5/1 and 6/1) to go with two shorter prices (4/5 and 5/2). I had my doubts that Victor Barboza's Mati Gol was deserving of the early 1/1 morning line in this 2yo MSW sprint. But, he faced seven first time starters from barns that just don't win with those kind and one with experience that would be a big surprise. Mati Gol himself broke dead last in his debut then was flying home to be a best of the rest second. Add in the 30% win rate with second time maidens for the barn and he was the obvious choice. Right to the front off a sharp break, dueled into the lane and held off the late runners.

Minutes later it was time for the Grade 2 Demoiselle for 2yo fillies and Brad Cox's Muhimma was my BEST BET of the Day. For me the only question was the demanding nine furlong distance, but none of these had ever gone that far. The $700K Shadwell filly had aired in her two previous starts by a combined dozen plus lengths. Right to the front, in hand and drew off impressively. My only concern for her chances on the Oaks trail is her ability to rate when facing pace pressure or cheap speed. But today she was CLEARLY much the best.

After two misses - as short priced favorites - it was time for the featured Grade 2 Cigar Mile. I thought there were three or four legitimate win candidates but for me, Todd Pletcher's lightly raced and very talented Locked looked to make this his coming out party. When stretched to a mile in his second start last year he'd run away at Saratoga with a big 96 Beyer. Came right back to win the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland before ending his 2yo campaign with a third in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But then he'd not been seen until a month ago when he was cross-entered in Keeneland's Gr 3 Perryville and an allowance race here. Pletcher opted for the easier race and he walked with it (as my top pick). Now would be his big day. Mid-pack through the far turn he found another gear at the 16th pole and ran down the leaders before edging clear in the final 100 yards.

At this point on Saturday I was 6-for-15, a good 40% and feeling pretty good about the day. But over the next two hours and seven selections only D'Oro Unbridled won....and he was subject to a steward's inquiry at the Fair Grounds before he was allowed to keep the win. And as for my horse, Fancy Quality. She left the gate of a MSW turf sprint at 8/5 but broke dead last and then was checked heading into the turn. Sigh......

We headed to the Panthers game and our grandson Oliver was so proud to carry his Dad's WWE Stanley Cup belt. His cousin Cameron took his picture and posted it on the Panthers photo site. Minutes later, much to the delight of all three boys Mr. Oliver appeared on the jumbotron. The excitement here was only outdone by the big 3-1 victory we scored over the San Jose Sharks.

Sunday
Today was one of "those Sundays" I'm always wary of....just one win from half a dozen selections. At least the lone victory came with the "biggest" bet of the day when Break Out was an easy winner.

This coming week I'll have selections for the week, but on Saturday my niece Khloe and I depart from Fort Lauderdale International for Budapest, Hungary to begin a week long Christmas Markets cruise with Viking River Cruises on the Danube River. Not sure if I'll be handicapping for the following week or not.

Social Media this week.....
My gal-pal, country DJ Chloe posted a photo from the radio station's "Jingle Jam" and I noted how cute she looked and got a reply back.

Last week was my most fav Kimmy's birthday so I checked back in with her and we had a brief conversation.

My social media pal Karli posted a photo and I noted how talented she is, but also I've found her to be the sweetest person, so I shared that comment. It took her about a week to get to the reactions to her photo but she messaged me her appreciation.

CBS-Miami anchor Lauren Pastrana and I exchanged comments and I was so proud of her over the weekend as she won an Emmy award for her series on Alzheimer's. She is so talented - and I'm very appreciative that we're social media friends.