Championship Season OPENS

 November 28 - December 1

What a week!  As we came off the "Pre-Season Weekend" that kicked off the winter racing season, the official start of the Gulfstream Championship Meet began on Thanksgiving Thursday.  But that was hardly the "story" of the week.  For the last month Kim has been doing all the leg-work to prepare for a double knee replacement procedure.  So Wednesday morning our best buddy Keith came over and drove us down to Baptist Health South in Coral Gables for a 1pm check-in.  The procedure went amazingly well and her recovery has been nothing short of remarkable.  But I must say, I have been so very anxious.  And I share this info because as we were going through this - not only the physical part of the days leading up to the procedure, the hospital visit, and the return home...then the adjustment to all of the things necessary for her to begin to rehab at home - AND the arrival of her twin sister - all the while I handicapped the races and played the Opening Week races, largely Thur & Fri via replays.  It would have been an amazingly quick start to the winter season under normal circumstances, but to have the success I had this week while going through this experience was remarkable for sure.

Thursday - Opening Day
Typically the winter Championship Meet begins in December, and while Sunday IS December the 1st, under most conditions the opening of the winter meet would have been next week.  But this year, and I believe a lot of it was because Thanksgiving itself was so late, the meet kicked off on Thanksgiving with an early 11:15am first post as I had selections from both Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds.  After passing the opener I went with 8x maiden Come Dream With Me in the second.  As the prohibitive 3/5 choice she ran 2nd under Irad Ortiz.  Not the start I was looking for!  After running 3rd in R3 I finally cracked through with Xenon in the fourth.  The 2yo had debuted in MSW company and had shown speed and stopped.  Dropped in for $35K and again showed good speed before weakening to finish third.  Today one more drop to $25K and Irad took over.  Tracked in third, awaited room in the lane, then Xenon shot up the rail to be JUST up in time!

The opener in New Orleans went to the gate less than fifteen minutes later and it was a "beaten" claiming sprint for a cheap $10K.  The conditions restricted older to two wins, but 3yo were unlimited.  That made 4x winner Emilyhasherturn even more appealing to me.  Right to the front, never threatened and never looked back!

Complete no-shows in the next two before running 2nd at even money at the Fair Grounds led us to Race 7 at Gulfstream.  This "beaten" sprint was set at five and a half furlongs on the all-weather.  The two favorites were "likely" to decide the event.  One was 2-for-32, ouch while my choice, Cadamosto was "only" 1-for-15.  But this was only his second start for a tag, and the first try in his last was a NYRA turf sprint.  Was allowed to go off at a generous 2/1 despite having Irad on board as he tracked the 7/5 favorite while third into the lane.  Switched into the clear, split rivals and drew off as easily best.  My double investment returned me a handy $30 plus :)

The eighth in Hallandale was the featured Wait A While Stakes for 3yo fillies on the turf.  Civetta was - like the rest - a lightly raced juvenile, but she was dropping out of a photo finish in a Grade 3 for trainer Brendon Walsh.  In addition to getting two-time leading rider Ortiz, her three Beyers beat the combined 37 figures earned by the rest of her rivals.  Tracked in third and was full of run, but completely blocked from open race track into the lane.  Split rivals near the furlong pole, opened up and held off the late running closer for the win as the "BEST" of the day!

Civetta WINS The Wait A While

Got my final winner of the day in R8 at the Fair Grounds when Golden Afternoon got to the front turning for home in a 2yo nw2L allowance on the turf and held off the late running challengers.  Ran 3rd and 2nd with the last two picks from New Orleans.  But for the day my totals were an excellent 5-for-12 with a flat bet profit!

Friday - Clark Handicap Day at Churchill Downs
Traditionally the day after Thanksgiving sees Churchill Downs run the Grade 2 Clark for older handicap runners, so today I played the races from Louisville as well as the Day 2 races from South Florida.  There wasn't a lot of quality to the early races, so much so that from the first post at 12:20 through R5 at Gulfstream I had only two bets.  BUT the day started on a winner in a 2yo maiden claiming sprint.  I wrote, "By all rights we should see Paco Lopez burst right out of the gate on  Cosmo Prime and never look back."  She'd wired a better field with opening splits that would see her score here but had been DQ'd out of that one.  I thought the even money was a steal and just as I predicted, she went right to the front and was clear to the wire....though to be fair she was tiring late, but the wire came first!

The "best win" of the day came with the next bet in R3 at Churchill Downs.  It's one of the great things about racing - you can have a great score in a $30K "beaten" sprint on a Friday afternoon just as easily as in a Grade 1 $1 Million Breeders' Cup Championship race!  Miss Jeopardy was the lone 3yo, which meant she was not restricted on her wins.  Last spring she'd won a nw2L sprint HERE for the same price and had run 2nd in an OPEN $40K sprint at Keeneland.  After being claimed two back she was third at this level at 9/5 and was getting leading jockey Luis Saez today.  The post time favorite, right?  Nope - listed at 7/2 she was dismissed at a big 6/1 price.  OH MY.  Was outsprinted to the front, but after tracking the leader into the lane she took over and drew off as easily best.  Paid a whopping $15.96 on a $2 bet so I cashed for nearly $40 to clinch a winning day!

Ran third at 7/5 in a Gulfstream race before it was time for the "best bet" on this Friday afternoon.  The Grade 2 Clark or one of the other stakes on the program?  Nope.  It was on Johny's Fireball in a second level turf race under the Twin Spires.  I wrote that I thought I could "loosen" the wallet here because I thought 'Johny would run big off a layoff dating back to August.  Trainer Norm Casse - better known as the husband to hottie handicapper/analyst Gabby Gaudet - had seen his 6yo post a best-of-69 bullet work for today AND leading rider Saez was on board.  He took some money but again the crowd was wrong and allowed him to leave the post at better than 3/1 odds.  Sat the ideal trip in third into the stretch.  Took control and drew off.  With my big triple investment ticket on board I collected over $60!  With these two big wins in Louisville I was "ok" missing in the three stakes later today.  I briefly thought I was going to have a big score when Chloe's Toy was in front at 11/1 in Gulfstream's 8th turning for home before she weakened.  Carrying that name I had to reach out to my buddy Jeff Nelson's cute daughter Chloe and tell her to play with her toys this afternoon.....but to no avail.  I only had three winners, but I only had eight picks on the day and nearly doubled my money as I bet $60 and cashed for over $100.

Saturday:  Florida Sire Stakes at Gulfstream
Today with college football on and taking care of Kim - with Karrie's invaluable help - I only had three tracks on my selection sheet.  Gulfstream, Churchill and Del Mar.  Wasted little time getting into the winner's circle as the opener at Gulfstream was a mile-70 maiden claimer for juveniles on the Tapeta and it looked to me like Zo Zucchera was a clear-cut choice.  In his first two starts, vs. MSW going two turns on the fake dirt the winners had come right back to score.  In start #3 he dropped to $35K and ran the same level of Beyer without hitting the board.  Today's further drop added to the fact that this recent number would beat all the lifetime best figures on the page made him the choice.  Tracked the leaders in fifth through the far turn, swung out and blew by the second choice.  It wasn't a surprise that as a lightly raced 2yo he ran greenly through the lane and veered over in front of the runner-up before distancing him by half a dozen or more lengths.  Surely they wouldn't.....yes they did - up with the INQUIRY and OBJECTION signs.  I watched with interest and thought certainly there's no change - and there wasn't.

Passed the second and then it was time for the "lid-lifter" in Louisville which presented an interesting dilemma.  I noted in my analysis that typically the morning line maker uses one of two schools of thought making the early odds.  (1) You make the morning line (based on percentages) by figuring the chances of each horse winning the race out of 100% and translate that to odds.  Or (2) you use the same kind of percentage calculations and base the odds on how you think the crowd will BET the horses.  I noted in my analysis that I'd love to know which was used to make BC Distaff champion Idiomatic's little sister, first time starter Chasten the 8/5 favorite.  And that was because there were two others with experience that were legitimate win threats.  I was up in the air as to my wager when both the on-air FanDuel racing analysts at Churchill remarked they were surprised at how LITTLE action Chasten was taking.  And indeed, by the time they broke out of the gate she'd floated to 3/1 odds.  But I stuck with my opinion, only to see her break dead last out of the gate.  Sigh.....but trainer Brad Cox's go-to rider Florent Geroux let her settle and you could tell she was picking off horses into the turn on her natural talent.  When heads turned for home she had a full head of steam while five wide.  Despite wandering about greenly she inhaled the leaders and edged clear late allowing me to cash for over $40 on my second winning bet of the day!

Lost the next two bets, both at Gulfstream.  Didn't matter that one was 10/1 (finished 7th) or 1/5 (WOW - go figure, finished 2nd), both were losses.  In Churchill's third I tripled the bet on Book'em.  Somewhere in the condition book there must be more details about the conditions because this entry level 2yo allowance had conditions that read, ".....have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter OR two races lifetime....."  And yet Book'em had not only won his maiden but also had won an entry level allowance.  The FanDuel analyst did make the remark that winning a "restricted" MSW meant he qualified, but you'd never know that by what was printed in the Form.  So she was clearly the only 2x winner in the field AND earned figures better than anyone else.  Pressed the longshot front runner into the turn, then ran by without being asked and drew off by a pole.  AND with the early betting action I upped the bet to a triple investment so I cashed for almost $30 on my third winner :)

R5 from Gulfstream was next and as noted in my analysis, "You won't win them all, but you'll win more than you'll lose at the GP Championship Meet by taking Todd Pletcher's first time maiden starters without any further looking at the pp's.  And so Enlighten got the call for me.  The Gulfstream analysts were not at all supportive of his chances.  But you couldn't fool the crowd who made him the 8/5 post time favorite.  Looked trapped turning for home but jockey Edgard Zayas squeezed through the narrowest of gaps on the rail and burst clear to score!  And I'm off to a 6-for-8 start to the day.

Was 2nd at 4/5 in Louisville before it was time for the $300K Florida Sire Stakes My Dear Girl going two turns on the main track.  I'd shared with Keith on the way to the hospital that today's featured races had two very obvious, very short priced favorites.  AND that I remember three years ago being on the rail when the unbeaten 1/5 2yo colt turned for home in front and then couldn't get the distance and failed to deliver.  Could history repeat itself today?  I thought the fact that Brad Cox shipped OPEN stakes winner Stunner here to face Florida-breds made her the least likely of the two to fail to score, but I really think the unbeaten colt running later is talented.  So I "only" made Stunner a triple bet.  Rated kindly, took over turning for home and looked clear at the furlong pole before she began to tire.  Gave way in the final strides to a 60/1 maiden that produced a $138 payoff while my 1/5 favorite settled for second.  WOW.  The fifth at Churchill saw me on another Brad Cox, short-priced favorite.  Patch Adams had debuted as the 4/5 favorite and dueled into the lane before weakening to be third going six furlongs.  You COULD make the case he'd fail to last 7f today but his big 82 Beyer was the key for me.  Pressed the 5/1 leader into the turn and took off to win by a pole AND was geared down in the final 100 yards yet STILL was just 0.33 off the track record - YOWZA.

Over the next nearly two hours I had two seconds, a third and a fifth while only scoring once.  In that lone victory Disco Time was the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in an entry level allowance.  Only bet the minimum on yet another Brad Cox runner as she was exiting a decisive maiden score to face winners.

Now it was time for the showcase race locally as the immensely talented 2yo colt, Rated By Merit put his unbeaten streak on the line in an attempt to be just the 11th colt to sweep the FSS series while he stretched out to two turns for the first time.  His trainer Michael Yates had toyed with the idea of going to the Breeders' Cup as his three 90+ Beyers were among the best numbers of ANY 2yo in the country, but the timing was too quick so they stayed home to run here.  AND he remarked that the way he was training he had no worries about the distance.  It was a "game time" decision for me, but despite the loss three years ago in a very similar situation I raised the ante to make him the "BET of the Weekend" by going "all in" with a $30 WIN bet.  I was a bit concerned that he was a front runner and almost certainly would get company on the front end, but by and large the numbers don't lie.  Especially when there's as big a discrepancy as there was in here.  With the rail draw he burst out of the gate and quickly was in front.  Was taking mild pace pressure but I could tell he was well within himself.  The stalkers made their move on the turn and narrowed the gap.  But once he turned for home the rider asked him to go on with it and he drew off easily as much the best.  Was "ok" with the price since it floated up from 1/9 to 1/5 allowing e to cash for $36.

Less than five minutes later they were walking into the gate at Churchill Downs for the Grade 2 Golden Rod, which carried points for the first Friday in May's Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  The Godolphin filly, Good Cheer looked the best of the trio of logical contenders.  This Brad Cox filly was three-for-three including two in a row at this mile and a sixteenth distance, one of which was the Rags to Riches Stakes over this track.  Add in the "paired" 86 Beyers that also gave her a "Double Beyer Advantage" and you can see why she was the Churchill Best Bet.  Fifth into the turn but under confident handling she swept by three wide and drew off impressively.  The final time was second only to the great Rachel Alexandra's time at this distance.  This filly is the real deal!

I scored a second stakes win at Churchill, this one under the lights as Impulse Buy came from nearly a dozen lengths behind at the back of the pack going six and a half furlongs to blow by and win going away.  The 5/2 price allowed me to cash for more than $30 on my last winner of the day.  Went winless at Del Mar, but for the day I was a good 9-for-21 (40%) and made money.  I was able to eek out nearly fifteen dollars in winnings because Xpressbet had offered a $10 bet back on the two FSS races, so the loss by Stunner saw me "cash" for $10.

Sunday
This happens frequently, especially during the winter season where I play more frequently.  I play the races all day on Saturday, for hours on end.  Have a good win percentage and frequently - like yesterday - make a profit.  Then the Sunday card is sketchy and I end up giving most if not all of it back.  But sometimes it does not work out like that.  I had these thoughts as Sunday rolled around because I'd had three very good days and was well ahead for the week.  On top of that, when I had handicapped this Gulfstream Sunday card it was particularly weak.  So much so that I passed the first three and the last three of the day.  I ran fourth as the 3/2 favorite with my first bet (ironically named Hakkimmi - pronounced "Hi Kimmy" since today is my gal-pal and all time favorite former student Kimmy's birthday!).  But then came the story of the week!  When looking at R6 today I had a strong opinion on Crosstown Shootout - see my analysis below......

I seriously considered backing down the bet, and even thought of just watching the race.  But then I recalled that just this week I'd looked up the winning percentages from last year for me compared to the guys that get PAID to pick winners.  And so I kept the $15 wager intact.  None of the three Gulfstream analysts liked this one in their top three, though they did briefly mention she had back figures to win.  They loaded in the gate and she took late money to come down from 9/1 odds, where she'd been holding pretty much from the opening of the betting, to 5/1.  "And they're off....that was Crosstown Shootout breaking slowly and now last."  WOW.  And going five and a half furlongs that's almost certainly the kiss of death.  But as the field approached the turn she was quickly making up ground and had "that look" of a serious threat to close the race down.  Even "Announcer Pete" mentioned that she was gathering all the momentum.  Blew by at the sixteenth pole and widened to the wire.  The mutual went up at a huge $13.20 for a $2 bet, so my triple investment yielded a $99 payoff.  WOW!

I'm now going to finish ahead today AND add to the weekly win totals.  But wait, I wasn't done as Bearclaw Necklace went right to the front and led the field of Race 7 into the turn.  The even money favorite drew along side but 'Bearclaw said, "Not today my friend" and held him off before edging clear late at better than 2/1.

For the day I was 2-for-5 with a big profit making the week's totals look like this:

Social Media this week......
A little more detail on Kim's surgery......it just blows my mind that the procedure was to saw through the leg bones - on BOTH legs, and dethatch the bones, thus leaving each leg in two parts before inserting a titanium artificial knee.  And then stitched her leg back together.  WOW.  But THE most remarkable thing was twenty minutes after exiting surgery she was up and walking.  The next morning when the doctor came to check in the nurse said, "You know how double knee patients are typically bed-ridden for two or three days?"  "Yes..."  "Well THIS woman was up and walking twenty minutes after surgery and in 25 years of working here I've NEVER seen this!"  When we arrived at the hospital the next afternoon I was stunned that if you just looked at her and talked with her you'd never know what she'd gone through.  Then when the nurse came to remove the IV she swung her legs around and onto the floor as if nothing had happened.  Just mind-blowing.  And when we got home she walked across the living room with her walker.  As I write this on Monday morning, just less than four days later she's completely off the pain meds.  Just WOW.  So many of our friends & family have checked in on her, it's been very rewarding.

My gal-pal Lauren from CBS was one of those who wished Kim well, and she remarked how good the surgeons are at Baptist Health.  She also "liked" my message about the tree being up and the final preview of our upcoming Danube Christmas Markets adventure.

My all-time and forever most favorite former student Kimmy and I exchanged T'giving greetings and she was quick to wish Kim a speedy recovery and "order" me to take care of her :)  Then Sunday it was Kimmy's birthday.  She and I are very close, and it's most appreciated by me that we've stayed "together" virtually as she has built her family life in North Carolina.

You'll recall that I mentioned Chloe's Toy running in Friday's races, so of course the "real" Chloe was excited as we exchanged text messages.

Finally, weekend anchor, and gal-pal Teri and I had our exchange this week early in the week when she was on the morning desk during the week.  She was absent both weekend days - I'm pretty sure if it wasn't for a Thanksgiving break it was with her upcoming wedding being less than two weeks away.