January 10 - 14: WHAT A Remarkable Run
After a slow start to the week I had one of THE MOST REMARKABLE runs since I began keeping records of my handicapping.
The first five-day "regular" racing week kicked off Wednesday (we DID have five day weeks the last two but only because of special holiday cards). And it was an awfully slow start to the week for me. I ran 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th (wow) for the day. NOT what I was hoping for. But it kind of went along with the way my day went as I had my 10-year colonoscopy procedure. Was groggy and wiped out until mid-afternoon when I began to feel normal, but could tell my body was in recovery mode.
Thursday started off in much the same manner with a 6th at 2/1 and then a 4th at 3/1 odds before running up the track, 7th at 7/2. But give me credit because I stuck to my guns and played Pretty Liam in the fifth, a maiden special for 3yo's going five furlongs on the synthetic since the weather "forced" races off the turf. None of those with experience impressed me and so it came down to either Christophe Clement's Beanpot who was debuting or Todd Pletcher's Pretty Liam. The former was a pricey $400K daughter of Into Mischief who had sharp works, and the Clement barn is excellent with FTS. But it's Gulfstream, in the winter.....and Pletcher is king with young 3yo at this time of the year. Irad Ortiz was riding the St. Elias homebred. She tracked the pace into the turn, swung three-wide into the clear as heads turned for home and blew by to draw off as easily best. And I HAD to think there were a large number of bettors looking at the big jumbotron when the prices went up saying, "How is that Todd Pletcher & Irad Ortiz team up on a 3yo first time starter here at Gulfstream to win AND PAY $9.80?" What a wonderful payoff which meant I'd be collecting nearly $50 for the first win of the week! I felt a lot better about racing after the numbers went up :)
But then came the bet I was most proud of myself for. It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure that Todd Pletcher's Leslie's Rose was a likely winner. First, she'd debuted with a dazzling and effortless win to score by a pole with a huge 87 Beyer. Second she was 7/5 on the morning line and EVERYBODY liked her. But the story for ME is all about how I'd started the week on a seven race skid before winning the last race. Maybe I should scale back my scheduled $25 WIN bet since things were not going well? NO WAY JOSE! I doubled my original bet and went ALL IN with a $50 WIN ticket on the filly. Pressed to the top of the lane and looked ready to take flight and soar to the wire past the 50/1 front runner but that one would not go away. Had to work hard but edged clear late to score and provide me with a win on my BET of the WEEK. Closed out the day with a fourth and two seconds but still, I felt "back" with that big win.
Friday: A Day At The Track - On Wednesday evening, following my procedure, Kim and I went to the airport to welcome my Mom and sister who were arriving for their regular winter visit. My Mom has always enjoyed going to the races, and in particular likes Gulfstream because she can also go to the casino. When I handicapped the races for the day they were a collection of nondescript events without any big names or any horses that I thought were exciting to watch run. But hey, we're here for the experience and to watch live thoroughbred racing. I reserved us a table on the upper deck over looking the finish line, and for the first time in more than a week it was "Chamber of Commerce" weather with sunny blue skies and warm temperatures.
Bingo Was His Name - which led me to sing that popular kids tune during the race and during my video afterwards - had already been out seven times trying to break his maiden. But in this spot he looked easily best. I anticipated him being the favorite but not the prohibitive 1/5 chalk that he was. He justified the low odds as he went right to the front and coasted home without ever being asked.
B-I-N-G-O, B-I-N-G-O, B-I-N-G-O.....and Bingo was his name, oh!
Roscoe Village was the pick in the mile and a sixteenth off-the-turf maiden claimer for sophomores. First she was making the most powerful drop in racing, going from MSW to MC. And second, her last three Beyer figures topped every lifetime number earned by the rest of the field. AND since they were earned against better you could easily expect they would be that good or better today vs. cheaper. Quickly cleared the field and much like Bingo in the opener, she was long gone without taking a deep breath. Two-for-two and it's a wonderful start on a glorious afternoon.
The third was an entry level allowance for three-year-olds carded to go five and a half on the all weather. General Ledger had closed with a rush to be second in the two-turn, turf Pulpit stakes. On the drop and the cutback I thought he was a good fit. Planned to bet the minimum but he was well played not only in the WIN pools but in the multi-race wagers. I upped the bet to a double investment. Tracked to the top of the stretch, collared the leader, then dueled to inside the final fifty yards before edging clear for my third consecutive win!
As the horses were arriving in the paddock for the third race my sister asked, "Do you ever see anyone you know when you're out here?" I replied that I used to see a lot of familiar faces when I used to go to the now-closed Calder Race Course, but rarely here. Just then she looked up and said, "OH, HI Jeff!" as my older son made a surprise appearance after the FAU football staff had been given the afternoon off to enjoy a long holiday weekend. He had the Daily Racing Form open and said, "Why are they making the #3 horse 3/5, I don't see that at all." I told him I agreed, especially since that horse - albeit a Pletcher runner - had just broke it's maiden. My top choice, and my "best" of the day was the #4, Sherif Ali from the Mark Casse barn. This guy had faced winners and his two last figures topped everything else on the page. Top rider Irad Ortiz was up. Pressed the 24/1 front runner into the stretch, dueled to the furlong pole and asserted himself while the favorite arrived too late. As he galloped through the final 16th I was again singing "Sherif Ali, fabulous he Sherif abobgua....." a la the Disney movie Aladdin. Somehow the bettors had let my top choice go off at a healthy 2/1 and change. I'd tripled the bet and cashed for almost FIFTY big ones as my amazing day continued.
Jeff was looking at the Racing Form as the horses went to the track for Race 5 and I said to him, "Gambling Holiday is my pick in here. He's going for trainer George Weaver who's winning at an amazing 42% so far. This horse is one of those that either is tons the best or finishes so far back he's off the TV screen." He agreed and we both bet him. Burst out of the gate, right to the front, clear and L-O-N-G gone. FIVE WINS in a row. How much fun is this? :)
Finally had the streak stopped in the sixth when I ran an even fifth at 5/1. Passed on the seventh as we enjoyed lunch with the warm, balmy breezes blowing through our hair. In the eighth, an entry level allowance moved to the Tapeta (again) my top choice was scratched. What to do about my second and third choices. My third choice, Golden Ghost was taking a lot of money with Paco Lopez up and with minutes to post time I jumped on board. Tracked in third inside runners through the turn, split rivals at the furlong pole and drew clear late. ANOTHER winner.
While the winning bet in the eighth was an "audible" call where I didn't have a lot of confidence, in the finale, Paco was on Greek Mojo who I felt was a solid choice. Could another favorite win - and another one of my choices? Split rivals turning for home and was GONE. W-H-A-T a day with SEVEN WINS from eight bets and cleared over $70 in profits. Today's one of those days where "I love the track and the track loves me!"
Saturday January 13 - Because the biggest races, and they weren't "BIG" races were out west and the fact that there was a home hockey game with a 6pm puck drop I used the Friday visit to the races as my "day at the track" for the week and played the Saturday selections at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center." The opener at Gulfstream saw my top pick run third. Then in the second, a claiming event going five and a half on the synthetic my top choice scratched. I looked long and hard at my second choice who was NOT being played a lot, and went back and forth about betting. In the end I thought he was indeed good enough, brought down the wager to a minimum bet and was hoping it would be one of "those" races where top rider Irad Ortiz would win at a price and people would wonder who'd had that....ME. Exchange Day was fifth into the lane and I didn't have high hopes, but he split rivals and closed with a rush to score at a generous $11.20 price!
In the third, multiple stakes placed and stakes winner Willy Boi was dropping into a "beaten" $35K claiming event in search of a confidence builder. Even though he'd not won since July of 2022, the fact that this had been in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint here. He was exiting a third in a Tampa stakes and was third off the layoff. I'd noted I'd let the board be my guide on the betting and he was taking good action so I upped the bet. Pressed to the top of the lane, got to the front and was driving to the wire for my second score of the day. Followed that up with my third consecutive win, all at Gulfstream when Admiral Hopper was tons the best and romped home handily as the short priced favorite.
The out of town racing kicked off in Hot Springs with a non-winners of two allowance route. I did NOT like the 3/5 favorite and instead made Magic Tap my top choice. Since moving to two turns he'd put up five consecutive 90 and change Beyers. There were more than one in here who'd earned a faster Beyer but none of them had consistently ran those figures like he had. The favorite dueled from the opening bell into the lane while Magic Tap skimmed the rail in fourth. At the top of the lane he shot through and drew clear to score at a nice $6.80 allowing me to cash for the FOURTH time in a row and collect over $30! Followed that up a half hour later with my next bet, a maiden claimer at the Fair Grounds where Sacred Saint was a decisive winner to make it FIVE IN A ROW for me.
I had not planned on the sixth at Gulfstream being my BEST Bet of the Day in So Florida, but I'd tabbed Todd Pletcher's first time starter Turn Up The Trees as the top choice in spite of there being two debuting colts for him in the MSW sprint. I'd noted that the $500K purchase for St. Elias Stables clearly was THOUGHT to be the more talented and he'd lured John Velazquez while usual go-to rider Irad Ortiz was on the other. I had the Gulfstream feed on and they raved about the workout that the two had had together and showed how 'Trees had completely outrun the stablemate in a work very uncharacteristically fast for a Pletcher firster. It was noteworthy that today's riders were both up on those colts for the work. And finally, 'Trees was getting heavy action. So I upped the double investment to a full blown "Prime Time" bet. He broke sharply, dueled to the stretch and got to the lead. Was confronted by a 50/1 outsider who you "knew" he'd put away but a stretch-long duel ensued before he edged clear late. SIX STRAIGHT WINS to start the day - oh my!
I passed on five straight, including a race at Oaklawn where I'd thought I might have interest in a first time starter, but he was long odds so I passed (he was up the track). Missed in the 8th at Gulfstream for the first loss of the day - certainly couldn't go 19-0 for the day, right? Before I got back on track with back-to-back scores. The first was a claiming event at the Fair Grounds where Naughty Lottie proved a popular winner and then at Oaklawn where Frosted Graced proved she'd been a deserving favorite.
The next two bets were misses. Another Pletcher firster went off at 8/5 but was an even fifth and then at the Fair Grounds I was a well beaten eighth. The tenth at Gulfstream was an entry level allowance going six and a half furlongs. Typically I'm not a fan of betting these unpredictable events, but when I do I prefer a lightly raced, recent maiden winner who's had one or two sharp tries against winners. Bill Mott's Socially Selective had won on debut, and that's unusual for his horses. Came back to be second in Oaklawn's Purple Martin Stakes after being away for seven months. Was the 2/5 prohibitive favorite at Keeneland in an allowance spot last time out and was second without an apparent excuse. Because of that I made him a minimum bet. But when he was taking a lot of play I upped the bet - notably this was the fourth time today I'd done that! Tracked three wide in the clear while third into the turn, swooped to the front turning for home and drew off for win number nine on the day.
After missing with my first wager in So Cal in their fourth race I had time for one more live bet. The sixth at the Fair Grounds was a second level allowance and one of the hardest things to do for a thoroughbred is to win right back on the class rise. But both Highland Falls and one of his rivals were doing so off impressive first level wins. Facing first time winners for Brad Cox he'd been third at Churchill Downs. But last time out he annexed that level of competition with a stakes quality 98 Beyer figure. Even a small regression and I thought he'd win for fun. He swept to the front from just off the pace and was a driving winner just as we headed out the door.
After the winning race at the Fair Grounds, Kim and my sister Laurie and I headed off to the arena to watch our Florida Panthers try to extend their nine game winning streak. And before I left I made four late bets in four stakes races at Santa Anita on their Cal Cup Day card.
We returned home and I had set the DVR on FanDuel TV to record the late races, so I set up in front of the big screen in the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" to watch my last four races. In the Cal Cup Oaks I'd bet just the minimum on Sushi Sticks and she was an "ok" 4th at 7/2. Next was the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint down the unique hillside course. As I've said before, I LOVE the races down the hill here! The choice here was the recent big figure winner or proven Rose Maddox off the layoff. I just wasn't convinced that her rival was good enough to repeat the last out number, but I could see that 'Rose had won off the layoff before. She was cleverly ridden in fourth as Prat kept her initially on the "outside" as the field bent through the first, right hand turn. But as they flew down the hill into the second turn, the more traditional left handed turn across the dirt she was now on the inside saving ground. Hit the turf stretch and burst into the clear. Had to work hard in the final 100 yards to hold off the late runners, but she was clear on the wire with my double investment on board.
The Cal Cup Sprint was my BET of the DAY with The Chose Vron. In his last ten starts - yes, last 10 - he had suffered one loss, and that came in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint. The concern was that multiple stakes winner Brickyard Ride would take them coast-to-coast. Most upsets of short priced favorites come when the upset winner goes wire-to-wire without opposition and while that COULD happen here, it looked to me like 'Ride had lost a step or two. Right to the front while The Chosen Vron tracked inside and appeared boxed in going to the top of the lane. But without being asked he eased between rivals and drew off without taking a deep breath.....much, MUCH the best. Made very little money on the big bet, but as is often the case for me it's all about the being right and putting my money where my mouth is :)
Closed out a second most amazing day in the Unusual Heat Turf Classic going nine furlongs at Santa Anita. Turf events at this distance start just up the hill and cross the dirt before hitting the main turf course. I liked Kings River Knight a lot. Of the combined 134 races run by his rivals, none would top EITHER of his last two Beyers. That "Double Beyer Advantage" angle would typically lead me to a "prime time" investment. But I had just the slightest of questions about (a) he'd never gone this far and on top of that, (b) he was stretching out off a layoff. Offsetting that, I'd read that his connections had circled this race as a target off his last. Right to the front and never in doubt. Closed out a most amazing day with a whopping THIRTEEN WINS from just nineteen bets. In and of itself that would have been an "oh my" happening. But considering I was coming off a 7-for-8 day Friday, truly just remarkable that my two-day total was 20-for-27. I am having a VERY good weekend!
The first, "Oh I'm so smart" thing about Sunday was that before my Mom & sister came to visit we'd talked about which day to go to the races. I'd said that there were more races on Sunday and it looked like there were "better" races. But I thought we might want to go out to dinner on Sunday. Both said they would leave it up to me. I checked the weather forecast and "they" said that Friday looked to be a good day and Sunday had a chance for showers. Well, of course Friday (the 7-for-8 day) was a "Chamber of Commerce" / postcard perfect day with sunny blue skies. And as I watched the races today, by mid-afternoon it was a steady rain, and it was so gloomy that it was not easy to see the horses on the backstretch through the darkening gray. Well played Mr. Mark. In the Sunday opener I'd thought the field looked pretty evenly matched for a starter optional claimer. I have to give credit to the DRF analyst who named Nikee Kan on top. What caught my eye - and let me just say that I've often said.....handicapping is like a tool box and you have to use ALL the tools to find the right one, and sometimes that's reading what other handicappers see that you might have missed - in reading the analysis of the online DRF handicapper he noted that Nikee Kan was cross-entered for a race on Saturday for this same price tag, but running here, in a starter event she wouldn't be for sale. That MIGHT be an indication that she was ready to roll. Sounded good enough to me and you got top rider Irad Ortiz on board. The favorite was 3/5 and was my second choice, but I stuck with the bet. 'Nikee split rivals and ran off to win.....and at a big $12.40 price. Oh it's nice to start the day by collecting over $30 :)
I was somewhat surprised to see that we were still on the turf in the second going a marathon mile and three-eighths. Todd Pletcher's War Princess was a front runner who'd failed to last yet. But in here she looked to be THE controlling speed. Jose Ortiz cleverly let the longshot runner who insisted on the early lead through the first of three turns go and pressed on the outside. Assumed control through the stretch the first time. Opened up by daylight and had more than enough to last to the wire. Best of all, she'd hovered around 4/5 and even money until post time but floated up late to 9/5 and I again cashed for nearly $30.
After missing in the fourth with a Todd Pletcher first time starter who was nowhere to be found at 4/5, it was time for the Sunday feature, the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf. I noted in my analysis how "sad" it was for long time racing fans that it used to be that Sunshine Millions Day was a major event on the January racing calendar. When the concept first began Gulfstream would run four big races and Santa Anita would run four big races for an eight-race program. And each year they would alternate the races run at the two tracks. Then it became just Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream while Santa Anita would run some Cal-bred races on a Cal Cup program. Then in the last couple years there were fewer Sunshine Million events, and they were spread out over two days. And this year, there was just this one race, which was now named the "Sunshine Filly & Mare Turf" since there are no longer "millions" involved. And next weekend there is one "Sunshine" race each of the two days. Sweet Dani Girl had moved to the Christophe Clement barn but was the defending champion. My ONLY concern was that they obviously had bigger targets down the road and she was coming off a layoff. No worries. Tracked through the far turn with obviously a lot of horse ready to run. Got clear at the furlong pole and ran away as much the best as the "Bet of the Day."
Missed on the last three but finished the day a very good 3-for-7 with a profit. The day topped off a most, MOST Remarkable Run - both for the two days and for the week. Next week is "Road To The Derby" Day at the Fair Grounds on Saturday, and I'm planning to be AT Gulfstream for the day!
Social media this week......
I exchanged several messages with CBS-Miami anchor Lauren Pastrana about the Panthers hockey. The first time she indicated she needed to get to a game and the second time she told me she needed to get CBS-Miami sports reporter and voice of the Panthers Steve Goldstein to get her tickets - to which I replied if she got tickets I'd buy her the "lucky cookie!" :)
Former student Kristian celebrated a birthday so I reached out with greetings....
I was so sad to hear "my girl" Kimmy, who'd told me a few weeks ago that she thought she'd broken her foot, apologize to me for being "MIA" for the last week or two but she'd had to have her foot operated on. Can't be easy with two very little ones running around the house and you're in a boot with a broken, surgically repaired foot.
Finally, a bit of a "rewarding" exchange. I'd always communicated with former CBS-Miami weekend anchor Karli Barnett via FaceBook Messenger (or the Sat night FB chats). But in December the messaging system no longer was synched with Instagram which apparently was where she saw my messages. I'd opened an Instagram account largely to keep in touch with her but we'd not exchanged any messages this way. But Sunday I saw a pic she posted and I reached out to her, and she replied.
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