New Year's Week: January 1 - 7
We kicked off the new year with a special January 1st holiday card. After running 2nd in the opener as the 6/5 favorite I had the BET of the Day in the second race, a two-lifetime claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. After two MSW tries where she ran "ok," Strand of Gold was a daylight winner over optional $50K maidens. Trainer Saffie Joseph sent her to Saratoga in a $50K 2L where she ran ok again but "paired" her winning figure. Back home and dropped into this $25K, two-lifetime company she should win for fun. Irad Ortiz had her break sharply but immediately went to the back of the field through pedestrian fractions. Still last into the turn I thought it was hopeless. Began to rally into the lane but was so wide and far back she was not in the picture even at the 16th pole, but then a blur of red and white to be up in the shadow of the wire.
A pass and second at 8/5 and a third at 2/1 took us to the fifth, a maiden special event going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track with the first finish line. Bill Mott's Resilience was distanced in his last, the first time around two turns, losing to Brad Cox's exciting prospect Nash. Even though that one disappointed to be third in the Gunrunner at the Fair Grounds, I thought effort would be more than good enough to win here. So much so that I broke my own "rule" by ignoring Irad Ortiz on Todd Pletcher's runner in here who was 2/1 in the program. Tracked the leaders to the turn, split rivals and swept by to run away as much the best.
The special holiday program featured two stakes events which were the "official" first steps to the Gulfstream Park Oaks and the Florida Derby. Prior to the Cash Run for the fillies I was a disappointing second as the 3/5 favorite in a conditioned allowance, wow, on the turf. And then I went with the layoff filly Queen's Martini in the stakes only to see her flatten out late to be second at 9/5. In the featured Mucho Macho Man I thought at least half of the field would be no surprise to score. I went with Otello from the Christophe Clement barn. What caught my eye was when he was winning his debut at this same one-turn mile at Aqueduct, he flew home from the final four furlongs in :25.1 which was multiple lengths faster than anyone else in the field had ever finished the race. And ironically, it was THAT very turn of foot that did in fact win the race. He tracked the leaders along the rail through the far turn looking for running room. Found a seam and began to run as heads turned for home, but then got cut off and he checked suddenly. It's over I thought, but Luis Saez had the colt make a right hand turn into the clear at the 16th pole, clear race track ahead and with a burst he was through and UP IN TIME. Very exciting end to a fun day of racing to kick off the extended week.
Wednesday Kim and I celebrated our 37th wedding anniversary. Hard to believe it's been nearly four decades since I married the one true love of my life. I have, for the last several years, made a collage reflecting the past year together which I did again. We've had oh-so-many great adventures and I chronicled them in that Facebook post.......
One of the "best" stories from Thursday came in the third when the oh-so-obvious choice was Todd Pletcher's 3yo maiden, Scalable. After a Saratoga debut the connections though enough to run her in the Grade 1 Chandelier at Santa Anita - as a maiden....and she was a close second. Was an even fifth in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and now returned to Gulfstream, where Pletcher wins with nearly all his "good" maidens in the winter. Would be odds- on but Gulfstream analyst Brian Nadeau said on air he was completely against her and would not bet on her or include her in his multi-race wagers. OK, I get maybe you aren't getting "value" in a race but in a spot like this you have to include the runner in the multi-race wagers, that's just stupid betting. And as for a win proposition you are probably best to either swallow the short price or just watch, not throw your money away "hoping" they lose. But hey.....it's the great thing about this game, every one has their own opinion and can bet their real money accordingly. I'm sure many bettors listened to "Brian Nanunu" as I call him and that allowed Scalable to go off at an absurdly inflated 1-2 price and run away as easily best, as I cashed for almost $25 - just giving money away. Came right back with another winner in Race Craft on the synthetic and finished the day 2-for-5, 40% wins.
Friday I had one winner in Heart and Soul who won narrowly despite the 1/5 odds at post time. The "best" story here was in the feature later in the day when Carotari returned in a conditioned turf sprint. The multiple stakes winner loved this course and had won off a break before. The drop into allowance company sealed the deal for me. But as they went to the gate and I watched on FanDuel TV the analysts talked about how the trainer had said TODAY he "probably needed a race." WOW - would have liked to have know that before I bet :( Second at 4/5 odds.
Saturday - San Vicente Stakes Day at Santa Anita
The weather forecast was NOT GOOD for the day as "they" said there would be rain beginning at 3pm which could lead to local flooding and heavy storms beginning later in the afternoon until around 6pm, just when we'd be heading home from the track. But as it turned out, it was overcast all day and just cool enough for me to enjoy my lightweight sweater vest. The day started out great as On The Dot went wire-to-wire in the opener. But that would turn out to be only one of the two winners I had on the local card. But I wasn't alone there as the "professionals" each had one, three, and one winner from the eleven race card which featured a $32 winner, an $18 winner, a $28 winner, and a big balloons $77 winner.
There were multiple stakes races on my card in addition to the late afternoon featured three-year-old stakes in So Cal, the Grade 2 San Vicente. The first of which was the first step on the Kentucky Derby trail through New York in the one-turn mile Jerome Stakes. Drum Roll Please had run third in the Grade 2 Remsen going two turns at nine furlongs last time out. The cut-back to this distance would suit him great. And the two he'd chased home probably would be odds on here. Blew by through the final 16th of a mile and paid what I thought was a generous $3.20. Cashed for nearly $25 on my triple investment.
Skidded through a seven race streak with one winner, but to be fair the six losers - like a lot of my losing bets today - were with runners who were NOT the favorite. Aztec Empress provided the lone win in this sequence. She was a prohibitive 1/5 choice at the Fair Grounds and was clear in the lane but was life and death to hold on in the final strides. Still.....at this point I was happy to cash the ticket.
My next winner was one of two bets on the day that I was most proud of myself about. Raging was a second time starter for Brad Cox being sent out in an Oaklawn MSW sprint. Didn't take a rocket scientist to pick the morning line 9/5 favorite on top. But here's what I liked about MY bet. I made him the BEST Bet of the Day at Oaklawn and the amount invested was only topped for the day by the bet on the featured race later in the day. This was because he'd run an "ok" fourth as the favorite on debut but I noted he not only broke poorly and rushed up to press the pace, but did so over a muddy track that played strongly to closers today. I thought with a clean break over a fair track he'd run lights out, especially for a barn that scores with 30% of their 2nd time maidens. Rocketed out to the front and was clear into the lane. Looked like the stalkers were getting to him at the furlong pole but jockey Florent Geroux let out a notch and the colt cruised home allowing me to cash the big ticket!
I continued on a "hot streak" which saw me win four of five when Mucho Macho Girl was much the best at odds-on at the Fair Grounds and Todd Pletcher's Quality G was up in the shadow of the wire to win on the turf at Gulfstream. The fourth in the sequence was a great story......
City of Love looked good to me in the fourth at the Fair Grounds. A Maiden Special sprint where I'd probably have passed on her as a runner, but in THIS field she was the only one who'd ever run close to par and had run in an ultra-KEY race at Churchill Downs before dueling gate-to-photo-finish-2nd here last time out. Primed for the score. Stalked the pace to the stretch. Made what looked like the winning move to reach and I assumed run by the leader, but that one would not give in. With 100 yards to go it looked like City of Love was destined to be 2nd, but surged.......PHOTO on the line. My initial reaction was she'd lost by the narrowest of margins. The slow-motion up-close replay seemed to confirm this. The camera switched to show the tote board showing "PHOTO FINISH" on the board. But then minutes went by with no posted winner. Was it that close. The drama continued and I thought, could I have won and the angle of the camera was bad? I'd even take a Dead Heat after thinking I'd lost for sure. The numbers came up and it WAS a Dead Heat! WOW, I'll take it.
And my next win in the third at Santa Anita was much the same. Carmen Miranda surged late and looked to have gotten the best of the head bobs on the wire. I was much more confident here, but it was oh-so-close....
The New Orleans card at the Fair Grounds featured three stakes events.....and I SWEPT ALL THREE! Bron and Brow split horses at the top of the stretch and blew by to win the Palmisano Memorial in Race 6. In Race 8, the BF Wright Memorial Ova Charged defended her title with a decisive score and I topped off the sequence with an online bet after we'd left the track when Oeuvre drew off in the Menard Memorial. These three wins gave me a collective six-pack of wins at the Fair Grounds today! WHOOO HOOOO.
I ran 2nd in the two 3yo turf stakes at Gulfstream, both with Todd Pletcher horses exiting the Breeders' Cup events. And in both cases I really thought that while the horse will almost certainly be better next time out, I really felt that jockey Irad Ortiz was not only too far back vs. a moderate pace in both instances but also waited too long to make his move. So it goes....... Keith (who'd gimped to the track on his crutch with his bad knee - good for him to give it the ole college try!) and I headed home after the GP finale and I had three bets score from the six I made online. The first was the aforementioned Oeuvre. Next was Lunar Force in a down-the-hill sprint at Santa Anita. I LOVE those races :) Lunar Force had the right "profile" I've found works in these - a win or at least a very good race previously down the hill. In her second try down the unique hillside course she'd exploded to a career best 81 Beyer. Maybe that reflected the top two runners' Beyers, but if it was legitimate she'd win for fun. Pressed the pace and led most the way down the "bed to the right, bend to the left" course....crossed over the dirt with a narrow advantage and then kicked clear to win authoritatively! Wish I'd bet more.
The final win of the day was the second bet I was very proud of myself to make. Bob Baffert's Muth had already proven himself to be a graded winner and he looked much the best in here. The ONLY concern was that two races back he'd been odds-on and I remember on that day watching on TV that the commentators remarked his win was a foregone conclusion. But he was second best to a last out maiden winning stable mate. And today the second choice in the program was.....you guessed it, a last time out maiden winner who was his barn buddy in the mornings. I had planned to make him a "prime time" bet, and when I made the online bets late in the afternoon I did that. But as it approached time to head for home and I was making my final set of live bets I doubled my "prime time" bet by making the SAME WAGER live. I now had not one but two big tickets on the colt. Pressed the dueling leaders while in the clear three wide through the turn, engaged the stable mate and briefly they were shoulder to shoulder.....but at the furlong pole Muth drew clear to score handily. Cashed for a combined nearly $60 - what a great way to end the day!
Scored with an excellent near-40% of my picks. I lost a little money on the day largely because I had multiple winning bets with odds-on favorites, several of whom I only had a minimum bet on. But, it's not so much about the money for me - that's an added bonus for sure - it's more about being right and enjoying the sport of kings!
Saturday January 6 Highlights
The end of the five day racing week Sunday saw me win one race at Gulfstream when King Julien drew off late. He'd been 9/2 and 4/1 throughout the betting until post time when he was 7/2. But as they hit the far turn he took late money to close at 2/1. Still, the $6.60 payoff allowed me to cash a nice $33 ticket.
Clearly the story of this day however was out west at Santa Anita where the exciting 3yo filly Kopion would make her second career start in the Grade 3 Santa Ynez which carried Kentucky Oaks points. I'd seen she was odds-on in the program so I did some investigating and everything I read indicated that the Richard Mandella trainee might truly be special. I watched her debut and it was indeed impressive. I decided to go "prime time" when I also read in multiple places that the field was weak. Watching the pre-race comments on FanDuel TV I was impressed with how confident the usually very conservative Mandella was with his chances today. That made me feel pretty good considering that when it came time to make the bet, like with the Saturday feature at Santa Anita, I upped my big bet. This time to a $30 WIN wager. Kopion broke sharply from the rail and while the anticipated front runner was away slowly, from the way she ran I don't think it would have made a difference. Jockey Flavian Prat never moved a muscle and it looked like an easy morning workout as she drew clear through the lane, extending the winning margin with every stride while the other riders were riding full out for their final position. VERY impressed.
Next week my family will be visiting and the plan, for me will be to visit the track on FRIDAY with my Mom & sister for lunch and a racing day. Then play the races from home since there are not big races locally but there are out of town. This will also allow me to go to the Panthers hockey game Saturday night.
Social Media this week.....
In addition to several interactions this week, several of my gal-pals sent me New Year's wishes....
Lauren Pastrana, a regular social media pal was on a family vacation so no exchanges with her this week, but my other newscaster/gal-pal Karli and I had a few exchanges. Her message/reaction to my New Year message wishing her happiness was especially meaningful.
Former student Amber Vrroman and I exchanged a message - she's newly single and working through her new lifestyle and managing being a mom to two little ones.
Always a treat to "chat" with my Slovakian gal-pal Petra and we had multiple chats this week.
Another former student and now Delta airline attendant Michelle was off to run in a 26-mile marathon at Disney World. Was so impressed and told her so.
And ALWAYS a treat to chat with my most favorite Kimmy. We contemplated me visiting in April. That would be fun.
No comments:
Post a Comment