It was a big day in New Orleans on Saturday with six bit stakes races. The weather took a real turn to the chilly side as the weekend rolled around, and I can't tell you how very much I enjoyed spending the vast majority of the day outside in the coolish South Florida weather watching the racing. But first, how the week unfolded leading up to the big day........ My Mom & sister were still here through Wednesday morning and I hated to see them go, always enjoy their visits. Before I took them to the airport I stripped their bed and did the sheets because around 11am we were expecting our good friends from Northern Kentucky, Tom & Mary Pat to arrive before they continued on to the Keys for a wedding. That night was a bobblehead night at the Panthers game so MP and I headed out to the game.
While visiting that afternoon I had five races I had an interest in. In four of the five races I ran second (at odds of 9/5, 2/1, and 2/1). The best price of the day, ironically, was with my lone winner on the afternoon in the sixth, a claiming event going six furlongs on the main track. Just Take Notes had only been out seven times and I thought she had legitimate excuses in three of them, enough to toss. The other four were more than good enough to win here. Tracked the pace inside in fourth, then shot through an opening on the rail turning for home and drew clear. The $9.80 payoff allowed me to cash for nearly $25 and cut my losses for the entire day in half.
Thursday our guests left just after the racing started and I spent a good deal of the rest of the day handicapping multiple cards for Saturday's big day at the races. The first bet of the day came in the third, a non-winners of two lifetime event going a one-turn mile. Goodbetterbest was the DRF Best of the Day and I noted how "sad" it was that the current state of racing in South Florida where this time of the year it's promoted as "World Class Racing" and the best bet is in a 2L event. Used to be that every week day was like a Saturday at any other track, but those days are long gone. At any rate, she looked a legitimate favorite. She'd been a just-miss second in a $25K nw2L two back and then jumped up to a $25K starter allowance around two turns over the Tampa turf. Back down to a one-turn mile, and back on the dirt she should get her second win I thought. Right to the front by daylight and never gook a deep breath. Should have bet more in retrospect, but a win's a win baby!
Was off the board with the next two plays before we got to the sixth, an entry level allowance, again at a one-turn mile. Scanning down the past performances for Todd Pletcher's Goddess of Fire you'd have to think she'd be a prohibitive favorite and a daylight winner in a first level allowance like this. She'd run 3rd in the Grade 3 Pocohontas, 2nd in Tampa's Gasparilla Stakes, 2nd in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra and 2nd in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks last winter. Also a 3rd in a listed stakes here AND 3rd in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga last summer. Just totally outclass her rivals, right? Well in her last she'd come off the bench at Aqueduct in a nearly identical entry level allowance and ran on the pace, then stopped badly. Oh that can't be good. BUT maybe she needed one? I was willing to consider that, and I also have seen time and time again Pletcher horses almost always run lights out at Gulfstream and often not as well at other venues. As she took a lot of money I upped the wager a notch. Tracked the leaders while under a very snug hold to the top of the lane. Moved through along the rail and ran off by daylight, AND geared down through the final 100 yards. WHOOO HOOOO!
Saturday: Road To The Derby Day
Disappointment led the way to the big day Saturday. First, the Friday card saw me go winless in four races, three of which I was second, once as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite. NOT the kind of lead-in I was looking for. That morning Kim set off for a weekend in Orlando and I went to the Panthers hockey game alone (did meet my buddy Enzo there). During the game I saw on social media that both Aqueduct and Laurel had cancelled their Saturday cards because of the snow and cold. This after I'd spent hours handicapping both tracks' races.....and I'd already had to avoid Oaklawn, where I'd planned to play, because on Wednesday they cancelled for the weekend. The Panthers did not play well and trailed 5-2 with twelve minutes to go. I told myself I'd leave at the first time out after the ten minute mark, but then our boys cashed in twice in less than a minute to make it 5-4. Were all over the Minnesota goalie for the remainder of the game but couldn't get the tying goal - still, very exciting, but disappointing as we lost for the fourth straight time (twice in overtime). And so I headed out Saturday with Keith in tow, and despite the late cancellations I still had nearly thirty bets on my sheet as I played Gulfstrstream, Tampa, the big card at the Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita. Missed in the GP opener when third at 5/2 but within minutes I was on the board. The opener at Tampa looked to go strictly through Beer Bali who towered over these $10K maiden claimers. Her Beyers indicated she'd win by a pole. But that's the thing about cheap maidens, they don't run them that cheap without good reason, and often if they've had trips to the post without winning AND are running cheap that's a problem. Sent off as a prohibitive 2/5 favorite she made her move at the top of the lane but didn't go by. Life and death to the wire until finally in the last few strides she edged to the front. WOW that was close!
Three "PASS" races and a scratch at the Fair Grounds saw me without action until the fourth at Gulfstream Park. Saffie Joseph reached out to top rider Irad Ortiz to guide Lady Emily Kathryn over the lawn in a Maiden Special event going a mile. She'd run fine on the all-weather but her best efforts were clearly on the grass and at this trip. Sent right to the front she looked like she'd lead them on a merry chase. But at the top of the lane she was collared and even briefly was back to second. But she rebroke in the final furlong and edged clear for the win!
Ran my winning streak to three then four in a row when Paper Mansion wired a starter handicap over the Tampa turf and Tarifa dove down to the rail to score in a rich $100K nw2L claiming event at the Fair Grounds to give me the first of multiple wins in New Orleans.
My top pick in the first stakes event at the Fair Grounds scratched, so I opted to go in on the lone speed, Just Might in the DF Kenner, a turf sprint. Right to the front, clear into the lane....nailed on the wire, 2nd. Ouch. Missed at Gulfstream when Paco Lopez took Toscanito right to the front and also was clear into the lane, then caught in deep stretch by the favorite. Ouch-squared. Next on the sheet was the the fifth from the Fair Grounds, a maiden special going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track for 3yo. I noted in my analysis that I believed several trainers would look to this race as an indicator if their colts were Derby material. I really liked the looks of Hall of Fame for trainer Steve Asmussen. The $1.4 Million son of Gun Runner had finished second in his debut after breaking poorly. As he took a lot of money I opted to up the wager. He tracked the leader while holding position on the rail and effortlessly took off at the top of the lane to the front. Through the final furlong the margin widened to nearly a pole while geared down. Stakes action is almost certainly in his immediate future.
As I went to "my girl Kimberly" the teller-twin, I was considering upping the bet as well on Todd Pletcher's Triple Espresso in Gulfstream's seventh. This too was a Maiden Special event and it was obvious that the connections regarded this colt highly. After debuting at Colonial Downs - why would Pletcher send a colt there? - where he broke poorly and closed with a rush for second, Pletcher sent him out - as a maiden - in the Grade 2 Pilgrim. A good try to be fourth. Back into the maiden ranks he was sent off at 4/5 from a wide post but disappointed to be third. Today.......knowing how Pletcher runners always run big here I thought maybe I'd up the bet. But that Colonial start coupled with a disappointment at 4/5 odds last time out led me to just hold solid on the double investment. Through the first turn and down the backstretch he lagged at the back and I was thinking, this can't be good. Asked by Irad Ortiz to pick up the pace he began picking off horses on the turn but was forces some seven or eight wide into the lane, still near the back. Kicked into high gear and flew through the lane to be up in time! WHOOOO HOOOOO. That's SEVEN wins in my last nine bets - oh I'm enjoying my day very much thank you :)
One of the highlights of the day - in a non-racing event - came around this time when my phone flashed indicating an email had arrived. Gal-pal via social media, former CBS Weekend Anchor Karli Barnett and I used to stay in touch on a "regular" basis via FaceBook messenger. But in mid-December that program stopped linking with Instagram - which was where Karli would see my private messages. Since then we'd not been nearly as "connected." For what ever reason, this morning before leaving for the track I'd sent her an email. And now, when I opened the email message she'd written back to me. That was very cool :) See the message below in the "Social Media This Week" section. Next up on the racing schedule was the opener from Santa Anita. Bob Baffert was sending out not one but two very pricey ($900K and $1 Million) colts. I preferred Maymun under Juan Hernandez. The board supported my choice. Burst to the front shortly after the break, in complete control to the top of the lane. Widened the margin willingly and was geared down late in a very impressive debut.
I picked up my third win in New Orleans in a second level allowance on the grass with trainer Michael maker's Chasing The Crown. I had mixed feelings about his chances seeing that he'd faltered at this level THREE times and all at short odds, AND had not been out since September. But the three bullet works said to me he would run his "A" game today. Split rivals at the top of the lane and drove to the wire a clear winner. Missed in the Gulfstream feature (see more below) and then was surprised when Sherlock's Jewels was NOT the favorite in the 8th at Tampa, but was pleased when he collared the favorite in deep stretch to allow me to cash for almost $30.
Picked up another winner out west in Santa Anita's third, an entry level allowance on the grass. Mo Fox Given might have been overlooked for my betting purposes but I always put a great deal of stock in what DRF analyst Brad Free says and you could tell he thought she'd run well. Had my doubts when she was trailing the field into the turn, but swooped up and by the draw off with authority to give me yet another winning ticket.
Because Kim was out of town and there was no hockey tonight I'd told Keith that we'd be staying late. But either he wasn't paying attention or forgot, and when I reminded him of this mid-afternoon he hesitated telling me he'd told the dog sitter he'd pick up his dog between 5:30 and 6 pm. Sigh...... so we agreed to leave after the Gulfstream finale and I'd watch the last several races online. I'd missed on three straight from out of town heading to the finale when I made the "automatic" bet on Todd Pletcher's Coinvest in a maiden special for 3yo on the turf. I liked a Bill Mott Euro invader but his debut in Great Britain came at a track I'd never heard of so it was easier to bet on Irad Ortiz & Mr. Pletcher. Sent off at a big 6/1 he was daylight clear in front, oh my it's a "day-maker" bet! But nailed inside the final strides by the favorite. Oh that was close.....good bet, no money. The first of the out of town races I watched upon return was the Silverbulletday Stakes for 3yo fillies at the Fair Grounds. This would serve as the prep for the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra and on to the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks as the fillies targeted the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. West Omaha had been a runaway winner in her second start at 7f then was a best-of-the-rest second in the December Untappable Stakes, the first of the 3yo filly series here. She'd finished behind a stablemate who was NOT in the line-up today. She tracked the leaders through the far turn, swung into the clear under Luis Saez and opened up at will in a very impressive performance. Will be interested to see if she and her stable mate both show up in the next leg!
I was "proud" of myself with the next winner in the sixth at Santa Anita. Why? Because it is not often that I loosen up the bankroll and go "prime time" unless it's a proven stakes winner. In this entry level allowance going six and a half furlongs on the main track, Scary Fast Ride was the DRF's Brad Free's BEST Bet. As I mentioned, his opinion weighs a lot for me. I loved the fact that 'Ride's Beyers had improved with each start and that she'd run 2nd in a stakes last time out to a FIVE-time stakes winner. Her last two Beyers topped 95 of the combined 97 Beyers for her rivals today. Normally in an entry level allowance this would be a double investment that I'd probably triple because of the Free opinion. But I went "all in." Tracked the four front runners without being asked into the far turn. Unleashed she blew by and drew off with authority. LOVE IT.
Brad Cox's lightly raced Saudi Crown looked to be the controlling speed in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes at the Fair Grounds. I doubled the bet, having just a little concern that the newly turned 4yo would be facing older for the first time. All, and I mean A-L-L alone on the front end he coasted wire to wire as tons the best.
Missed on the last two stakes bets, both of which were BIG bets for me. And had either won I'd have finished with a handy profit. But, despite winning a whopping thirteen of twenty-six on the day I came out just a little shy of even. Even worse than the two late losses, the two oh-so-close photo finish losses at Gulfstream cost me nearly $100 - oh it COULD have been a wonderful day! "Woulda, coulda, shoulda".....gotta love the track, eh?
Road To The Derby Day Highlights
Sunday I had five, possibly six bets on my selection sheet as we wrapped up the week's racing. Was third at 3/5 with a horse I wasn't that confident in but still thought she'd win on the class drop then ran 7th at a huge 17/1 with a Todd Pletcher runner. Heading into the far turn he was right there and I had a fleeting "OH MY" feeling before he faded. In the fourth race I'd found a horse that had no business what so ever winning or luring my wager. But I noted that perhaps if some money showed, I'd be on board. Check my analysis out......
Had no business being considered a contender, and certainly some of the betting action was because Ortiz was up, but what's up with that? With the betting action I opted to put the minimum wager down. Comfortably (for him, not me!) at the back to the far turn, Ortiz gave him the cue and he circled the field, caught the leaders and drew off as easily best. The nice $10 payoff meant I'd cash for $25 and suddenly I was even on the day :)
Here was another decision and wager that I was "proud" of - because I again I went in heavily on a likely winner, but it was the kind of race that I'd typically never do so on. The seventh was a non-winners of two lifetime event seven and a half furlongs on the turf. Emboite HAD to cause you some concern noting that he had ONE WIN in TWELVE starts. But part of that was offset when noting the first ten were in open company with the only one for a tag being his WIN in a $75K maiden claimer. Dropped into a $35K nw2L two back on the synthetic he was 2nd. Dropped again to $25K nw2L last time he was second going a mile on the grass. Claimed out of that event by Maryland-based trainer Brittany Russell - who made history in 2023 by being the FIRST female trainer to lead the Mid-Atlantic circuit in wins - she got Irad to ride today for the same $25K price tag. I'd planned to go in a "big" $15 but when both analysts at GP noted she'd be a "short priced favorite" in the pre-race handicapping show AND she was being pounded early in the wagering I upped the bet to a week-high $25 to win. She was in between runners into the far turn, but got clear race track when cut loose five wide at the top of the lane and she drew off as easily best :)
Early in December on the live feed from Gulfstream the analysts noted that a new trainer was running her horses here in South Florida for the winter. Former jockey-turned-trainer Brittany Vanden Berg had brought a string of runners and at the time they noted that the hottie trainer was a consistent winner typically. And it was noted that she nearly always put her husband-jockey, veteran Chris Emigh on board. I've followed her runners with interest and bet on several of them, but she's just not been able to find the winner's circle at the tough winter meet while compiling a 23/1-2-2 record. I've shied away from her and her husband of late but today she had entered in today's 7th. Ms. Britt had enticed the ownership group to lay out $50K to claim the 7-year-old veteran at Keeneland. She brought the five time winner (from 27 starts) back in a richer $62.5K claimer at Churchill and he ran a good 3rd. Dropped back to $50K and into a "softer" beaten race last time here, he'd been third again at a big 9/1 price. Today Ms. Britt was dropping him significantly to $20K. I can tell you if I were an owner who'd laid out $50K I'd not be too excited here. But the math for Mailman Money looked like this.....the two show finishes had earned back about $12,000. A win today would generate another $20K in earnings and if by chance he was claimed for the $20K tag that would bring the total for the four events to earnings of $52,000 - a slight profit for the short time span. Ok, horse race ownership is a gamble so I guess I'd be "ok" with that. BUT....what lured me to the bet was none of this - it was for the first time, that I could remember seeing the blonde hottie horsewoman was NOT putting her husband on board, but would give a leg up to the hot riding Paco Lopez. I think they're serious here. Tracked the leaders while patiently handled in fifth through the turn. Shot through a narrow opening on the rail and burst into the clear for the big win.
For the week my numbers totaled: 45 / 19 - 11 - 6 for a big 42% winning average, I'll gladly take that! Next week is the first REALLY BIG weekend of racing as Gulfstream hosts the Pegasus World Cup event. I skipped the inaugural running when tickets were over $300 for a seat and regretted it immediately. A world-wide big racing event in my own backyard at MY track and I let money stand in the way? Ever since we've gone (Keith and I) and we will be there in the grandstand next Saturday for the big six-stakes laden card!
Social Media this week......
I had three "interactions" with gal-pal Lauren Pastrana from the CBS-Miami evening news. On Monday when there were NFL playoff games on the local CBS channel she sent out an Instagram post that anyone who wanted to see a "friendly face" could find them on their sister station Channel 33. I immediately opened the streaming news on my app and "found" her. Sent her a message at 5:07 pm that I indeed liked her friendly face and while on the air at 5:23 she replied and reposted my message :) Also got reactions when I noted her wavy hair and "pretty in pink" outfit on Friday.
My Slovakian gal-pal from the Viking Osiris, Petra reached out to me a couple days after I'd checked in on her.......
Saturday morning before heading to the races I had the CBS-Miami morning news on and my "friend" Teri, who recently got engaged, was hosting the program with her gal-pal KC Sherman. I reached out on both Facebook and Twitter and she reacted/replied to both.
It's that time of year with Panthers hockey that you can re-up for next year's season tickets. Kim and I are all-in with our 'Cats and I paid the bill. Sent a message to our account manager, the very cute Emma who promptly replied.
Coach Kelly worked with us at Oasis High and we've remained pals since. Her Dad has had some medical issues of late but seems to be making a good recovery. But I thought of her Friday when I was at the game, alone, as the Panthers were facing the Minnesota Wild, and Kelly is from Minnesota (dontchaknow). We'd talked at one time about her visiting for a game so I sent her a message and she replied back :)
I've been going back and forth about visiting my Mom in Ohio this spring, and largely it was because my "girlfriend" Kimmy and I have not been able to connect since she's moved to North Carolina, got married, AND had two children. But we've talked about my visiting on the way to or from my Mom's. Looked like maybe this April we'd connect, but then she messaged me she'll be out of town....sigh.....
Finally, I felt so happy when I saw gal-pal Karli Barnett's email. Obviously - if you read it - it was NOT a standard "thanks for reaching out" kind of message. While we've never met we are legitimately friends, and I think she'd agree with that. This made my day Saturday. But then that evening I saw she was back with a Facebook "LIVE" chat for the first time in weeks and I hopped on. When I said "Hi" she replied AND then thanked me for reaching out to her. THAT was very cool my friends :)
No comments:
Post a Comment