Week 13

 February 22 - 26:  Gulfstream Park Sprint Weekend

It was a bittersweet week of racing as my good buddy, and racing pal Keith decided to head back to the midwest about six weeks early to take care of his injured knee.  Always look forward to having my good friend stay with us each winter, and especially enjoy his company at the winter racing meet.  But, from a racing stand point I had two excellent days at Gulfstream and had at least one winner every day of the week - and for THIS season, that's unusual.  Here's how the week played out......

On Wednesday I only had three selections as I once again tried to be a little more mindful of the "longshot factor" that continues to play out this winter.  It wasn't until the 6th that I had a selection and I wasn't all that confident in what looked to be prohibitive favorite Spicy Ginger.  She was 7/5 in the program and went off at 3/5.  Opened a daylight lead turning for home but was run down in the final two hundred yards.  The next selection came in the 8th, and entry level allowance for 3yo going seven furlongs.  Like so many other races this winter I wasn't going to be surprised if this event produced a double-digit payoff, BUT UNLIKE most, this one might because you could make a case for several of the runners.  What separated Flakes from the rest for me was that she debuted with a professional, off the pace score at first asking in a MOC event where she competed under state-bred MSW conditions.  Immediately she was thrown into the deep end of the pool to face rivals in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes AND she broke slowly AND was seven wide.  Toss.  Back into state-bred company today and into allowance ranks.  Sat off the pace, swung five wide into the stretch and mowed them down.  The best news - she was let go at a generous 9/2 price and I cashed for nearly $30 making today a winning one despite running fifth in the final selection of the day.

Thursday was a remarkable day, especially for THIS winter's racing results.  First, despite trying to be more conservative, I had SIX betting selections from the nine races.  Right off the bat in the opener, a MOC going eight and a half on the turf I had R Rose' All Day.  You COULD make a case to go against her but really only because (a) she'd be a short price and (b) because she had six starts already.  But for me, that only two starts had been on grass negated the latter.  Sent out by leading trainer Saffie Joseph she looked to be in a good spot.  Pressed a 9/1 front runner into the stretch through slow fractions and edged clear in the final 16th to score at 9/5.  

The fifth was my next bet and it looked a lot like the first play of the week - a short priced favorite that probably should win but I didn't have the utmost confidence in.  Spy Novel was going first off the claim for Joseph and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  Likely to be overbet, but clearly the two turf tries this 3yo filly had had were the best efforts on the page.  The "issue" was she'd been claimed out of a win for a mere $25K in maiden claiming company.  Still.....sat behind th leaders to the top of the stretch, slid three-wide into the clear and ran off.  There were TWO objections and TWO inquiries - one each against my winning pick....both denied :)

After running fourth at 9/5 in the sixth I had a pick in an older, starter optional claiming event going two turns over the synthetic track with Journeytothemoon.  Seemed obvious that either 'Journey or her rival Jazzy T would win - on paper.  I made the pick based on the fact that the top choice had won four of her last six (with two second place finishes) and hand finished in front of her rival twice.  Sat fifth into the turn, swept up five wide and drew off.  WHOOOO HOOOOO - three wins on the day!

Of all the picks today I thought I had the best chance, at a fair price on Rudder's Men in the 8th, a 3yo allowance as this one was a Todd Pletcher layoff runner.  But no dice, ran third at 3/2 while the winner paid a whopping $102.40 for a $2 bet.  YOWZA.  In the day's finale, a MOC turf route for 3yo I thought you could make a case for at least three of the runners.  I settled on Not Even Then who was a second time starter for trainer Jerimiah Englehart.  In her debut she trailed the field against open MSW rivals and made an "OK" late run to get with four of the winner while earning the fastest Beyer figure in the field.  That was enough to earn a bet in a wide open field for me.  Stalked in fifth to the turn, swung five wide to the front turning for home and drew off by daylight.  The best news here.....despite being 3/1 in the program the bettors let her go at a big 5/1 and change.  Paid $13.60 allowing me to cash for nearly $35 on my FOURTH WIN of the day!

Friday I had five picks.  I probably could have easily narrowed it down to two, or maybe even one but I didn't.  I ran a non-threatening fifth in the opener, third at 7/2 in the 2nd - and in both those races, leading rider Irad Ortiz was on the winner and they paid $12 and $13 - wow.  Was 4/1 in the 4th and I thought I'd won the head-bobbing photo, only to be an oh-so-close 2nd in a photo to a $19.80 winner.  Ran fifth at a 6/1 price when Irad brought home his third as the 9/5 choice.  Then in the one race I felt most confident in (and bet the most money) I went against the popular lone speed.  I just thought that Irad, again, would have Saffie Joseph's Freedom Matters in a pressing spot.  Did, but the fractions were glacial and the front runner cut the corner into the lane.  But Ortiz confidently hand rode him with encouragement and pushed by late so I cashed out for nearly $33.

Saturday:  Rebel Stakes Day

Keith and I headed out to the races, in what will be our final trip to the track together this winter, for the racing action.  In the photo at right above, Kim and I had met Keith at Oaklawn when we visited there for our second Arkansas Derby Day weekend getaway - this photo was on the Friday prior when we went out for Apple Blossom Day.  For our final Saturday at GP I debated about how many tracks to play and searched all the entries looking for what might be good cards to play.  But in the end I settled on just the local races at Gulfstream, the big Rebel Stakes Day card in Hot Springs and some races from Aqueduct in New York.  The first bet at Gulfstream was the third, an entry level allowance.  It was a seven furlong, state-bred sprint and while I didn't really want to take a short price - especially THIS winter at Gulfstream, Slim Slow Slider looked "good enough" for a minimum play (especially since I WAS there to watch the races).  He'd run best-of-the-rest 2nd in three straight going a one-turn mile at this level and seemed worthy of one more chance.  He pressed the front runner to the top of the stretch - dueled the length of the stretch and just when it looked like he'd settle for second, again, he had one final surge....PHOTO FINISH.  Very fortunate to have somehow gotten a whisker in front on the mythical wire.  Cashed for a little over eleven dollars with my favorite teller Kimberly.

Missed on a NY race and one from Oaklawn before it was time for the third at Aqueduct, the co-featured Gander Stakes for 3yo fillies.  It came down to last out impressive winner, Maker's Candy, or Chad Brown's Neural Network.  The former had the faster speed figures but was facing winners for the first time.  'Network had won on debut then tried open stakes company last time out in the Jerome Stakes.  I thought the class drop would prove to be the difference.  'Candy got the jump on my pick into the lane, but at the 1/8th pole it looked like I was wearing her down.  Couldn't seem to get by but in the final several jumps it appeared to me that my rider Manny Franco had had to steady slightly.  And as I watched the initial replay through the stretch I wondered if just maybe Maker's Candy had floated out through the lane bothering my filly.  Moments later, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets there has been an objection and the INQUIRY sign has been posted regarding the run through the stretch!"  I made my next set of bets while the stewards' views were replayed in four replay screens simultaneously and found Keith sitting in the Silks Simulcast area (bad knee, couldn't walk around).  I told him, "You see that?  She's comin' down and I'm a winner!"  Sure enough, I was put up and had my first stakes win of the day.  Missed on the next two before the fourth at Aqueduct where Lastchanceforglory was my pick.  He'd been claimed out of SEVEN STRAIGHT races, and nine of his last eleven.  Led into the lane, was headed - which is usually the end of the story for a thoroughbred - but he battled back, surged inside the final two-hundred yards and got up to win.  The big $6.80 payoff let me cash for nearly $35 and was worthy of the first "winning ticket photo op" of the day!

Missed on two straight triple investments when 2nd at 3/2 at Oaklawn where I led to the final jump and third at 8/5 there where my "other" pick won.  The seventh at Gulfstream was next, a seven furlong sprint for starter optional claiming runners.  There was no question as to where Saffie Joseph's Concrete Glory would be - on the front end.  CLEARLY the fastest early and with the best speed figures.  BUT, today he'd have to last seven furlongs and he'd been running at six lately.  Easily made the lead, whistled through the turn and entered the stretch with a daylight lead.  The closers were coming, but the wire came first and he was a handy winner at 4/5 with my double investment on board.

Ran close seconds in two of the next four (with a third and a fifth) before it was time for the Gulfstream feature, the Gulfstream Park Sprint - a $125K race at six panels.  I had found it interesting that on the "Gulfstream Today" show on Thursday, during the "Lightning Round" the GP analysts had previewed this key event and BOTH had said "NOBODY beats Candy Man Rocket on Saturday."  So when I opened the past performances I expected him to leap off the page as the "obvious" short priced winner.  But this was NOT the case.  He DID look like the winner, but far from a hands down type.  But when the betting opened and he was taking a LOT of money, and was a short priced pick in all the multi-race payoffs I upped the bet and made HIM the "BET of the Day" for today.  The front runner burst out of the gate and was at least half a dozen clear heading into the far turn.  My rider was sitting chilly in third and I wondered if he was waiting too long.  Then he shook the reins and the response was immediate.  By the time they were spinning out of the turn and turning for home I was inhaling the front runner and had not even been asked for my best.  Ran off as easily the winner.  And in spite of all the early money, somehow the crown let him slip up to 7/5 and I cashed for almost $50 on my BEST of the day.  WHOOOO HOOOOO - obviously time for another "winning ticket photo op!"

Yes indeedy Mac McCreedy, I HAD that one!

Less than fifteen minutes after the race was official it was time for the co-featured Stymie Stakes from New York.  I faced an "interesting" dilemma here.  Trainer Jamie Ness, always one of the country's leading win trainers in the country, but with mostly claiming and allowance types, was based at Parx in Philadelphia.  And when he claims a horse they usually "move up" substantially, but Repo Rocks looked like one of those that you had to wonder what was in the feed tub that Ness was supplying to this guy!  He'd been a useful type who could run in the mid-80's on the Beyer scale but first off the claim he'd blown out a field with a 96 Beyer.  Came right back to blow out another Parx field with a nearly identical 97 Beyer.  Then shipped here to NY to win the Grade 3 Toboggen with a Grade 1-like 111 Beyer figure.  Oh my.  I sincerely doubted he'd run back to that, but if he duplicated his previous two he'd be a handy winner.  It was also a plus that the regular rider from Parx came along and he had a massive 57% win average on his limited NY mounts.  "Go with the flow" I thought.  From the very beginning it looked like my jockey wanted to be outside and in the clear but his fellow riders had him pinned on the rail and behind runners through the far turn.  Might be too late I thought as the second choice got the jump turning for home - and he was the DRF Best Bet of the Day.  But finally a seam opened, Repo Rocks shot through into the clear, on the outside and drew off mirroring his previous three races.  Impressive regardless of why he'd suddenly improved....shame on you for not betting what was right in front of you in the Racing Form as I cashed for another $20 and change.

Ran third in the 11th at Gulfstream in what I INITIALLY thought was my final bet of the day locally.  Now what do you mean by that?  So, typically on Saturdays when I head out to Gulfstream I put together a spread sheet with my picks and those of the three public handicappers.  Then I keep track of how I do compared to them.  This year in particular NOBODY does well and ironically I'd decided NOT to do this for today.  But, I'd done my handicapping for Sunday on Friday - because I was playing only three tracks Saturday - so I had nothing to occupy my time on the porch Saturday morning.  So I put together my sheet.  I had picks through all eleven races in my column but when I began to fill in the picks for Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti, his BEST BET was in Race 12.  Wait, what?  I don't have an analysis for Race 12, did I miss a race?  I DID.  I pulled up the past performances and indeed, Chad Brown's Carl Spackler just LEAPED off the page.  In his debut on the turf, like today, he'd closed with a rush to be second in a photo with an impressive 88 Beyer figure.  That would win by a pole here.  So when I printed out my picks for the day I added this one and told Keith not to get all wound up because there wasn't an analysis - a running joke between us - and explained.  When I went to the track I debated about which of my three triple investment picks I'd make my BEST Bet.  I decided against my choice in the eighth (where I ran 2nd at 6/5) and opted to make it Candy Man Rocket.  Here in the finale the rider had a ton of horse while third into the far turn.  Without taking a deep breath and with the rider motionless the Chad Brown runner swept by and DID win by a pole.  He was a miniscule 1/5 at post time and while "the most impressive winner" for sure on the day, it was a wide choice by me to make Candy Man Rocket the "best" because the difference of the payoffs was $4.80 vs. $2.40 - that choice DOUBLED my net return.  Sometimes I'm so clever!  AND for the second time this week, I'd nailed FOUR winners at Gulfstream (and a 3rd photo op on the day!)  Quite the accomplishment THIS season my friends.

Make it FOUR WINS for the SECOND TIME this week :)

I had two late bets, the two feature races at Oaklawn as Keith and I headed home.  In the Rebel Stakes an upset winner got the 50 Derby qualifying points while I ran fifth.  But the story of the day in Hot Springs was in the previous race, the Grade 3 Honeybee for 3yo fillies.  I liked Brad Cox's filly Wet Paint.  She'd won the prep for this, the Martha Washington Stakes when rallying from off the pace despite slow fractions.  And with So Cal-based rider Flavian Prat here - obviously to ride her - she was my triple investment pick.  We got home and I pulled up the replay.  The gate latch sprung open and immediately my filly was squeezed back to last.  WOW.  Down the backstretch she made up some ground while riding the rails but approaching the turn the horses in front of her were simply running evenly and she could not get out.  Desperate to run through the turn, STILL trapped.  But approaching the top of the lane she finally got a seam.  Too little too late it appeared,   But then with a burst she suddenly went from near the back to fourth and had dead aim on the leaders.  Split rivals at the sixteenth pole and won by daylight, going away.  ULTRA-IMPRESSIVE....may have found my Kentucky Oaks filly.

Sunday I was going to be able to watch all my picks before Keith took us out to dinner to thank Kim and I for our hospitality.  As the racing day began I had six selections on the day and I thought I had two really good chances.  2nd at 2/1 in the opener, then in the second - the first of my "confident picks" I broke dead last, rallied to the front and still looked like a winner at 4/5 until nailed late by a $52. upset winner.  WOW.  Lost with not one but two Todd Pletcher 3yo maidens when 5th and 2nd.  Finally got a win when Fly The W proved again how much he loves the synthetic surface as he won for the 6th time in 13 starts over the Tapeta as the even money choice.  And closed out the day when second with my "other confident play."

Still for the week I finished 11-for-27 at Gulfstream - that's over 40% for those of you without a calculator....and at GP this winter, I'm very happy with that!

Week 13 Racing Highlights

Social Media this week.............

After not having any contact with any of my "social media gal-pals" last week I was back into the swing this week.....

I've been a big fan, and follower, and social media friend to CBS-4's Lauren Pastrana since she was a morning reporter - moved up to morning anchor, then weekend anchor before becoming full time evening anchor.  And she's always attractive no matter the outfit.  But she has always just "popped" when she's in green.  So Monday she was on air with a green outfit and I took a quick photo and sent it along with a message.  Again, while on the air minutes after I reached out to her she "liked it" and replied :)

When I worked with my son Jeff at Oasis High I made several new friends, one of the best being Kenny Kellner, who was father to our quarterback.  We began to have dinner with him regularly the last month or so every Thursday evening and when his wife Allison came to town, she'd join us.  She and I became Facebook friends and it was her birthday this week, so we exchanged messages.

Channel 10 morning anchor Jayce Birch always posts her "fashion pics" - especially with her heels.  And she loves to show off her good looks.  So, as a guy I often let her know that she's appreciated and I always get at least a "like" back.

If I had to choose, and had to name ONLY one girl as my very favorite former student I'd be very hard pressed to choose between long-time gal-pal Kimmy and Tatiana.  And if someone put a gun to my head and made me pick one, it would be Kimmy only because we "chat" via text often and when she lived locally I saw her at least once or twice a year.  Tatiana is every bit as sweet, every bit as attractive and every bit as much my "most favorite.  So when a FB memory popped up of us when she helped me with WISE recruiting I texted her and she replied back.

Finally, this may have been the "most appreciated" social media exchange of the week.  Right after Candy Man Rocket scored as my BEST Bet at Gulfstream I headed into the Silks Simulcast area where my favorite teller,  Kimberly, is positioned when I looked up at the TV screens.  There was one of my favorite gal-pal handicappers, Acacia Courtney.  She had been a regular, featured handicapper here at Gulfstream for several years and I'd messaged with her often.  AND more than once she'd posed for a picture with me (making my day!).  It could be because she got married to a NY-based trainer but I also think that some of the changes at GP may have precipitated her signing a contract with the New York broadcast group, "America's Day At The Races."  Any way, she was on the screen so I snapped a pic, sent her a message and told her I missed her being here.  Less than five minutes later she reacted ("liked") my message.  I honestly did value her handicapping opinions....but to be fair, she was easy to look at each and every day :)

Week 12

 February 15 - 19

Risen Star Stakes Day

Certainly the highlight for a somewhat mediocre week of racing results was being at the track on Saturday when MY filly Balletic - owned through the MyRacehorse group - romped home a winner and I was able to be in the winners' circle with all the other owners in the group.  But that's later in this week's story.  The first three days of the week saw me score just twice.  I'd have to say that - in my opinion - half the "problem" was that I was simply wrong, and the other half was the continued parade of "go figure" upset winners.  It seemed like more races than through the first eleven weeks were logical winners, where I went another way, and when it was a longshot that nobody saw coming it seemed like it was in a race where I had a pick.  On Wednesday the lone win on the card came in the sixth race, a claiming event going two turns on the synthetic.  She's So Pretty went off at a fair 2/1 price and pressed the leader into the lane.  Edged to the front and then it took a long examination of the photo finish to determine that she'd JUST held off the 13/1 closer on the outside (you can see the official photo in the lower right corner).  On Thursday I just couldn't find the winner's circle at all.  Ran 2nd, and a close second with my first two picks and then fourth in the other three races.  On Friday it was a two part story.  First, I was rewarded - for one of the few times in the week's racing - when I believed that putting Irad Ortiz on Jack the Cat would lead to a better timed ride and a win.  He sat the perfect trip, moved at the perfect time and though the margin was small, was a comfortable winner.  The second story of the day came in the day's finale.  West Bank had been a best-of-the-rest second in his debut for Bill Mott who typically does NOT have them ready at first asking.  His Beyer was clearly the fastest and he was in a moderate, at best MOC $50K event.  He was EVERYBODY'S and I MEAN EVERYBODY'S SINGLE in the Pick-6, late Pick-5, late Pick-4 - every multi-race wager.  AND was my "BEST Bet" of the day.  Tracked the 13/1 pacesetter while well in hand through the turn.  Cruised up to engage him and glided past to put a head in front with a furlong to go.  Then when the front runner would not give in willingly. West Bank had no response and hung to be second as the prohibitive favorite while the winner paid $28.40 for a $2 bet.

Saturday - Risen Star Stakes Day

As I said on the main page, Saturday was a "mixed feelings" kind of day at the races.  To be sure, being there in person to see a horse I'm a part-owner of WIN was more exciting than I could have imagined.  And to be in the winners' circle was really cool.  I've been in the winners' circle more than once when I've paid to have a race named for an occasion, but to be there with MY horse was special.  And to be outside all day in glorious South Florida winter weather is always great - while at the races.  AND I won nearly 35% of the time, so I was cashing tickets.  All the elements that would make up a good day.  But unfortunately, multiple winners I had were small investments, and ALL of them were short priced winners.  And many bets that were added investments did not produce, often at short prices.  Still, enjoyed the day overall, but certainly not as great as it could have been.  The big races were being run at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans where I've been fortunate to visit three times.  The first time came the year I retired and I had written ahead of time to the track if I could meet with announcer John G. Dooley and analyst Katie Mikolay.  Not only did they let me meet them, but the two took me into the studio to sit in on their analysis of that day's races.  And when it came to the big races Katie said on air, "Wait, I want to know what our guest Mark thinks of the race."  That, and that they willingly posed for a photo with me were really cool.  The second time I went was with my in-laws and my wife.  And what I remember most about that day at the Fair Grounds was not cashing a ticket.  The third time I went was with my good late friend Jim Anderson.  Man, I miss that guy.  I had a great day both overall and with the local Fair Ground races.  That weekend we stayed an extra day and did some touring of the city and I remember how much fun we had together.  Sigh....taken way too soon, way too young.  The first winner I had was at Laurel where they were running multiple stakes.  This was an allowance and I had to balance the angles of "lone speed" and "a quitter, is a quitter, IS a quitter" with Nostalgic Run.  He ALWAYS was loose on the lead and had caved in nearly every instance.  But what made me bet him here was the one time he'd held on over the last year was the one race he went today's extended nine furlong distance.  Quickly opened up by more than a dozen.  Clear by have a dozen turning for home.  Still clear by four with a furlong left, but was only half a length clear on the wire which could not have come any later!

I got my first (of SIX) winners in New Orleans in their second race with Brad Cox's Comparative.  Another "which way to go" pick because she was making her SIXTH start and maybe it was time to give up on her, but she had run competitively going two turns like this race.  Opted to give her one more chance and she won by daylight.

In Aqueduct's featured event, reduced to four horses I watched my "obvious" 3/5 pick run 2nd in a four horse field.  And then in Laurel's Miracle Wood Stakes I watched as Prince of Jericho ran 2nd at 1-2 odds in a race 37 of the 38 Beyers on the page would not beat any of the LAST THREE Beyers he'd posted.  That one number was earned by Coffeewithchris who was a 16/1 upset winner over Prince Jericho two back, but had been soundly beaten by him last time.  He wired the field again at a nice price.  WOW.  Scored with another Brad Cox's Merlazza who scored going away.  Then it was time for MY filly Balletic to run.  She'd been out twice here at Gulfstream and I was in attendance both times.  The first time I came with Kim, and the second time with Keith.  Both times she'd run 2nd.  I was surprised after her initial dirt, sprint try that trainer Todd Pletcher put her in a turf sprint.  Before today's race he was interviewed for the ownership group and said he still thought she had a future around two turns on the main track but it just made since to run her back in a race similar to the last where she'd run so well.

Today I thought, genuinely, would be her day.  I was not fortunate enough to "win the lottery" to be in the paddock pre-race but when trainer Todd Pletcher and his wife both walked in - he'd never been in the paddock for the first two - I thought today REALLY might be the day.  Jockey Irad Ortiz got her in the clear and tracking the front runner to the turn.  Balletic took over willingly, opened up and ran away as easily MUCH the best.  The whole final furlong all of the owners, including me were cheering enthusiastically.  Everyone began heading for the winner's circle and I wondered if there would have to be some kind of pass or something but no, we all just filed in and lined up for the pic.  The MyRacehorse gal who was hosting shot a quick video as we all cheered - see it in the highlight video below.  Was really cool experience.

I "won" the fifth at the Fair Grounds and I use quotes because....I went up to one of "my girls" - the twins who are tellers at Gulfstream and said "$10 to win at the Fair Grounds on #6."  Karen said, "On this upcoming race?"  And I said yes, and then looked at my sheet and said, "No, sorry, it's the 6th race."  Got my ticket, walked away and looked up at the board and we were about eight minutes away from Race 5.  I went back up to her and said, "Sorry, I was right - it IS Race 5."  She punched it in and said, "Sorry, I thought so, the #6 is scratched."  Walked away and didn't watch the race any way.  Then that night when checking prices I saw that my pick, Bishop's Bay HAD run, and HAD won....but was actually the #5.  In the Nellie Morse Stakes at Laurel I had picked Hybrid Eclipse.  She was taking heavy betting action so I doubled my original minimum bet.  Ranged up four wide and drew off impressively.  Minutes later I watched Lake Lucerne rally up the fence to win the Al Stall Memorial Stakes at the Fair Grounds.  What was unusual here is, when I say "rallied up the fence" it always means a runner slipped through up the inside.  But the Fair Grounds turf course has had soooo many issues that it currently is a very narrow strip of space and in THIS instance, Lake Lucerne rallied up the OUTSIDE rail!  At one point I thought the drifting front runner was going to rub her into the grandstands, wow.

Missed on five in a row before scoring with my "Best Bet" in New York.  Today's Flavor had won three in a row, had Beyers that showed him to be a daylight winner as 83 of the 84 combined figures by the rest of the field wouldn't beat any of those three numbers and the one that would was earned months ago, on the turf no less, by a horse that was 15/1 today.  AND Today's Flavor looked to be the lone speed.  Dueled while confidently handled to the top of the lane then ran away.

Missed in the Gulfstream featured Grade 3 Royal Delta where jockey Javier Castellano - who, to be fair has been riding superbly - allowed Katleen O to sit at the back through a :25 and :50 pace.  And I've seen her, HERE and at today's distance be closer to the pace.  Poorly judged ride in my opinion - second.  But when I came home and watched two of the late races I won two more stakes at the Fair Grounds - both graded events.

Sunday's card at Gulfstream was particularly weak.  I only had three bets and they were not until late in the card.  The one that "figured most" ran second 2nd at 6/5.  And then third at 4/5 when away slowly.  Finally got one final win for the week when Todd Pletcher sent Gliding Afleet plunging down the maiden class ladder to get his first win in impressive fashion.

For the week, the races, as I said were a big more formful, but still, a lot of big prices.

Risen Star Stakes Day Highlights

Week 11

 Tampa Bay Festival Preview Week

What a big comeback!  But I'm getting ahead of the story :)  Monday Kim and I headed to the arena to watch our Florida Panthers dismantle the Tampa Bay Lightning in a most glorious beat-down, 7-1.  We hate Tampa and just love pounding them.  And on Tuesday we got an email from our new Panthers ticket rep that it was time to re-up for the 2023-24 hockey season.  And we did so the next day.  When we did I wrote back to our girl and said maybe we'd meet one day at the arena.  She replied, asking if we would be at the game on Thursday or Saturday.  And I said my wife was going out of town, but that I'd be there.  On Thursday following the first period I got up from my seat to head out into the concession area and as I looked up, there she was.

We chatted for quite a while and she was more than willing to share about her experiences coming to the Panthers and a little of her personal life.  I thought it was so sweet that she actually came to our seats instead of saying "stop by."  Wednesday kicked off week eleven of the winter racing season and I reverted to my "usual" handicapping and betting for Gulfstream because the previous two weeks SEEMED to bring some degree of normalcy to the local results.  After passing the first two races I had a Todd Pletcher firster who was even money, but ran 2nd.  In the fourth I initially hesitated to play a cheap $8K claiming event, but Proverb looked potentially easily best.  He'd been running against far better in So Cal when claimed for $20K.  So the question was, why was he entered for a mere $8K today.  I went in for the minimum.  Pressed the pace through the far turn, asked for run at the top of the lane and opened up for a daylight score.  In my final three picks I was fifth at 5/2, then a very disappointing 5th as the even-money favorite, 7th at 1-2 odds and closed the day fifth at 4/5.  Interesting that I had decided to play more races because "normalcy had returned" because those last three selections were downed by winners that paid $68, $13, and $14.  WOW.

Thursday was very similar to the first day of racing.  First was 4th at 2/1, then fifth at even money in the third where EVERY person who selected picked Hell's Kitten as "the most obvious winner" on the card.  Fifth at even money behind a $21 winner.  Then ran seventh as the short-priced 4/5 favorite behind a $22 winner.  Finally got on the board in the finale, a one mile turf event under starter optional claiming conditions.  Parkland had run numbers in seven of his last ten that pointed him out as the most likely winner, and the other races had earned good numbers against far better.  He'd been claimed several times and STILL run to his form telling me he was consistent.  Stalked the pace into the turn, drew on even terms turning for home and then edged clear through the final 16th.

Friday was a better day for picking winners in Hallandale, although it started like the first two days when my 7/5 pick in the 2nd was fifth behind the 6/5 favorite.  In the third Todd Pletcher's Expressman was being pounded on the board so I upped the bet to a triple investment in this nine furlong synthetic entry level allowance.  Led to the far turn then oh no, was headed into the lane.  That's usually the end of the story for most thoroughbreds.  But despite that AND being in tight along the rail he battled back and gamely got his head in front on the wire.  WHEW.  Right back in the fifth in another synthetic event, this one a five furlong dash for starter optional claimers.  Uranium looked to benefit from a lot of speed and close the race down, but he was third into the turn.  Made his move and edged clear through the final two hundred yards to make it two wins on the day.  Was 2nd at 9/5 to a $21 winner in the 8th and then third at 5/2 behind a $14 winner in the finale.

Saturday February 11:  Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day

Saturday was THE DAY of racing for the week.  On Tuesday Kim had taken her Mom to the family condo on the west coast of Florida and then on up to Orlando for a weekend with her twin sister's family and our youngest Brad & his family.  So the original plan was to head out to the track and play live racing as well as the simulcast races.  But, after the big hockey win on Monday, followed by a thrilling come-from-behind 4-1 win on Thursday I wanted to see the game Saturday against the defending Stanley Cup champs, the Colorado Avalanche.  I PROBABLY would have still gone out to the races except all the local weather people forecast showers for the day.  Then when I handicapped the card through the first two and a half hours with fifteen races I had NINE "PASS" races.  AND through the first SEVEN live racing events I had only two bets.  So in my view I would be (a) sitting outside in the weather, without a bet, with a lot of dead time AND most of the plays I'd watch on small TV's hanging from the ceiling without sound.  AND wouldn't make it back in time for the game.  OR....I could play at home, being comfortable in the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" between races; hear the out of town races while watching on a big 55" flat screen AND be able to get to the game.  So I opted to stay home.  The first bet was from Gulfstream and I took the lead as the 2/1 moderate choice turning for home, only to be outfinished by an $87 upset winner.  In New York my pick was the Todd Pletcher first time starter who was being pounded to 1-9 odds.  So I doubled my double investment on the filly Monroe.  She won by more than a pole as a "prime time" play for me.  And as the racing kicked off from New York, I was watching "America's Day at the Races" where I saw gal-pal Acacia Courtney-Clement was in Tampa for their stakes-laded card.  I messaged her telling her I hoped she'd be there for the Tampa Bay Derby Day because I'd be there and would like to stop by and say "Hi!"  She replied back that she would indeed be there :)

Through the length of my first page selection sheet, that was it for the afternoon.  From noon until after 3:30 in the afternoon I was 1-for-13, the lone winner being that 1/5 NY horse.  At this point I was very happy with my decision to have stayed home and not be sitting around, without any bets and losing ALL the ones I made.  I then I was rewarded - and proud of myself - for sticking with it.  It's one of the most valuable lessons I've learned and mental traits I've acquired since playing the races frequently.  That is to not worry about today's action and results....it WILL all even out to produce 35%-to-40% winners eventually.  And so the comeback was ON!  Ironically it got started (a) at Gulfstream and (b) with a horse running on the synthetic who had been successful on turf, but was trying the Tapeta for the first time.  Therapist had been claimed by trainer Mike Maker for a big $50K price tag.  That the veteran runner had earned over $800K indicated his class.  He was patiently ridden towards the back of the field to the far turn, then took off.  Circled the field on the turn, got to the front and opened up as much the best.  Cashed on my first ticket since a little after noon for nearly $30.  

Ran 3rd at Aqueduct and then went on a tear.  In Gulfstream's ninth, Webslinger rallied in a 3yo entry level two-turn turf allowance to win going away.  This was shortly followed by my BEST BET of the Day in Tampa's Pelican Stakes.  Sibileus had won the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector at GP last time out and was now running in a listed $150K sprint.  Looked much the best on a "pattern play."  The last time he'd "paired" speed figures he'd exploded off that duo of races by ten Beyer points.  Today he was coming off of "paired" figures again.  Right to the front, took pressure all the way.  Into the turn his rivals came to him but he refused to give in and held them safely by half a length.  Cashed for over $50 on my prime time investment!

Right back less than fifteen minutes in the featured race from New York, the Grade 3 Withers which was their first leg towards the Kentucky Derby.  I found it very interesting that Brad Cox had sent his promising 3yo Hit Show to run here.  This son of Candy Ride is with Cox's string at Oaklawn and he'd fired a best-of-38 bullet work, followed by a 2nd best of 46 work, and topped off with a best-of-50 five furlong bullet work over the Hot Springs track.  Why not run in the Oaklawn prep?  But he was here and I thought he'd run big.  Saved ground while behind horses through the far turn.  Found a seam at the top of the lane and drew off impressively.  One to watch for sure.

Next up was the 10th at Gulfstream.  It was a MSW for 3yo and I liked Bill Mott's colt, Arthur's Ride for a couple reasons.  First, Mott typically brings his youngsters along slowly but this guy had been a dueling 2nd at Saratoga first time out.  Then in his second start at the Spa over Labor Day weekend he was a just-miss 2nd.  What was significant here is that the colt who beat him, Instant Coffee had won the Grade 3 Lecomte - the first leg on the New Orleans Derby trail - two weeks ago.  First time Lasix for the Mott trainee and not one but two big bullet works over the deep Payson training track stamped him as the one to beat for me so I tripled the bet.  After breaking just behind the first flight he quickly accelerated to the front.  Took pressure all the way into the lane, then edged clear to win by daylight.  Best of all he paid a generous $6.40 so I cashed for nearly $50 on my fourth straight winner, and fifth of six since snapping the long drought which began the day.

Missed at Oaklawn and then Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly champion Wonder Wheel could not get by a huge priced front runner in Tampa's Suncoast Stakes as she began to work towards the Kentucky Oaks.  Then it was time for Gulfstream's feature, the Grade 3 GP Turf Sprint.  Horse-for-the-Course Yes I Am Free (14/7-2-1) got the call for me.  There was a TON of speed here and he looked to be able to sit up close before getting the jump on the closers.  But instead, and with a couple of scratches, he broke on top and was clear by two easy lengths without any pressure into the stretch.  By then when the stalkers and closers came calling it was far too late.  And like Arthur's Ride in the 10th, I got a generous return of $8.60 allowing me to cash for almost $45.  As soon as it went official I left for the hockey game.  In between periods (we lost a close one) I watched Todd Pletcher's Litigate stamp his ticket to the Derby trail with a solid win in Tampa's feature, the Grade 3 Sam Davis....the final prep before the March 11th Tampa Bay Derby.

Sunday I ran 2nd twice and third twice before scoring on Todd Pletcher's impressive 3yo filly, Seduction in the finale.  For the week - at Gulfstream exclusively - the races seemed to return to the same longshot-favoring scenario.  From fifty races this week, TWENTY winners paid $10 or more / double digits; and 11 (22%) paid more than $20.  But in spite of this, I'd returned to being less conservative and I made 25 bets locally.  Scored with 9 of them, for the usual high 36% and made a flat bet profit.  Good for me!

Next week is "Risen Star Day" at the Fair Grounds, the final big prep before the Louisiana Derby.  The plan IS to be at Gulfstream as it's also a big day at Laurel Park in Maryland, the sister track to our home town venue.

Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights

Social Media this week......

Not much social interaction this week.  Early in the week CBS anchor & gal-pal Lauren Pastrana posted a link on both Twitter and Facebook that she was doing a story on the Florida Marlins and their stadium.  So I wrote to her and asked if she knew that the stadium hosted the Cypress Bay 2012 graduation where the keynote speaker was then Vice President / now President Joe Biden AND that I had been the one in charge of organizing that.  She reacted to my comment on both platforms.

As I mentioned above I met our attractive ticket representative on Thursday.  What I most liked was (a) that she came to my seat to find me, and even more so (b) when I wrote to her about how much I appreciated that, and her willingness to chat for a while I attached our photo.  Her comment that she really liked the photo brought a smile to my face.

And finally, as I also mentioned in the journal, hottie handicapper and former Gulfstream Girl, Acacia Courtney-Clement told me she'd be at the Tampa Bay Derby when I am slated to be there in mid-March.