Tampa Bay Festival Preview Week
What a big comeback! But I'm getting ahead of the story :) Monday Kim and I headed to the arena to watch our Florida Panthers dismantle the Tampa Bay Lightning in a most glorious beat-down, 7-1. We hate Tampa and just love pounding them. And on Tuesday we got an email from our new Panthers ticket rep that it was time to re-up for the 2023-24 hockey season. And we did so the next day. When we did I wrote back to our girl and said maybe we'd meet one day at the arena. She replied, asking if we would be at the game on Thursday or Saturday. And I said my wife was going out of town, but that I'd be there. On Thursday following the first period I got up from my seat to head out into the concession area and as I looked up, there she was.
We chatted for quite a while and she was more than willing to share about her experiences coming to the Panthers and a little of her personal life. I thought it was so sweet that she actually came to our seats instead of saying "stop by." Wednesday kicked off week eleven of the winter racing season and I reverted to my "usual" handicapping and betting for Gulfstream because the previous two weeks SEEMED to bring some degree of normalcy to the local results. After passing the first two races I had a Todd Pletcher firster who was even money, but ran 2nd. In the fourth I initially hesitated to play a cheap $8K claiming event, but Proverb looked potentially easily best. He'd been running against far better in So Cal when claimed for $20K. So the question was, why was he entered for a mere $8K today. I went in for the minimum. Pressed the pace through the far turn, asked for run at the top of the lane and opened up for a daylight score. In my final three picks I was fifth at 5/2, then a very disappointing 5th as the even-money favorite, 7th at 1-2 odds and closed the day fifth at 4/5. Interesting that I had decided to play more races because "normalcy had returned" because those last three selections were downed by winners that paid $68, $13, and $14. WOW.
Thursday was very similar to the first day of racing. First was 4th at 2/1, then fifth at even money in the third where EVERY person who selected picked Hell's Kitten as "the most obvious winner" on the card. Fifth at even money behind a $21 winner. Then ran seventh as the short-priced 4/5 favorite behind a $22 winner. Finally got on the board in the finale, a one mile turf event under starter optional claiming conditions. Parkland had run numbers in seven of his last ten that pointed him out as the most likely winner, and the other races had earned good numbers against far better. He'd been claimed several times and STILL run to his form telling me he was consistent. Stalked the pace into the turn, drew on even terms turning for home and then edged clear through the final 16th.
Friday was a better day for picking winners in Hallandale, although it started like the first two days when my 7/5 pick in the 2nd was fifth behind the 6/5 favorite. In the third Todd Pletcher's Expressman was being pounded on the board so I upped the bet to a triple investment in this nine furlong synthetic entry level allowance. Led to the far turn then oh no, was headed into the lane. That's usually the end of the story for most thoroughbreds. But despite that AND being in tight along the rail he battled back and gamely got his head in front on the wire. WHEW. Right back in the fifth in another synthetic event, this one a five furlong dash for starter optional claimers. Uranium looked to benefit from a lot of speed and close the race down, but he was third into the turn. Made his move and edged clear through the final two hundred yards to make it two wins on the day. Was 2nd at 9/5 to a $21 winner in the 8th and then third at 5/2 behind a $14 winner in the finale.
Saturday was THE DAY of racing for the week. On Tuesday Kim had taken her Mom to the family condo on the west coast of Florida and then on up to Orlando for a weekend with her twin sister's family and our youngest Brad & his family. So the original plan was to head out to the track and play live racing as well as the simulcast races. But, after the big hockey win on Monday, followed by a thrilling come-from-behind 4-1 win on Thursday I wanted to see the game Saturday against the defending Stanley Cup champs, the Colorado Avalanche. I PROBABLY would have still gone out to the races except all the local weather people forecast showers for the day. Then when I handicapped the card through the first two and a half hours with fifteen races I had NINE "PASS" races. AND through the first SEVEN live racing events I had only two bets. So in my view I would be (a) sitting outside in the weather, without a bet, with a lot of dead time AND most of the plays I'd watch on small TV's hanging from the ceiling without sound. AND wouldn't make it back in time for the game. OR....I could play at home, being comfortable in the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" between races; hear the out of town races while watching on a big 55" flat screen AND be able to get to the game. So I opted to stay home. The first bet was from Gulfstream and I took the lead as the 2/1 moderate choice turning for home, only to be outfinished by an $87 upset winner. In New York my pick was the Todd Pletcher first time starter who was being pounded to 1-9 odds. So I doubled my double investment on the filly Monroe. She won by more than a pole as a "prime time" play for me. And as the racing kicked off from New York, I was watching "America's Day at the Races" where I saw gal-pal Acacia Courtney-Clement was in Tampa for their stakes-laded card. I messaged her telling her I hoped she'd be there for the Tampa Bay Derby Day because I'd be there and would like to stop by and say "Hi!" She replied back that she would indeed be there :)
Through the length of my first page selection sheet, that was it for the afternoon. From noon until after 3:30 in the afternoon I was 1-for-13, the lone winner being that 1/5 NY horse. At this point I was very happy with my decision to have stayed home and not be sitting around, without any bets and losing ALL the ones I made. I then I was rewarded - and proud of myself - for sticking with it. It's one of the most valuable lessons I've learned and mental traits I've acquired since playing the races frequently. That is to not worry about today's action and results....it WILL all even out to produce 35%-to-40% winners eventually. And so the comeback was ON! Ironically it got started (a) at Gulfstream and (b) with a horse running on the synthetic who had been successful on turf, but was trying the Tapeta for the first time. Therapist had been claimed by trainer Mike Maker for a big $50K price tag. That the veteran runner had earned over $800K indicated his class. He was patiently ridden towards the back of the field to the far turn, then took off. Circled the field on the turn, got to the front and opened up as much the best. Cashed on my first ticket since a little after noon for nearly $30.
Ran 3rd at Aqueduct and then went on a tear. In Gulfstream's ninth, Webslinger rallied in a 3yo entry level two-turn turf allowance to win going away. This was shortly followed by my BEST BET of the Day in Tampa's Pelican Stakes. Sibileus had won the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector at GP last time out and was now running in a listed $150K sprint. Looked much the best on a "pattern play." The last time he'd "paired" speed figures he'd exploded off that duo of races by ten Beyer points. Today he was coming off of "paired" figures again. Right to the front, took pressure all the way. Into the turn his rivals came to him but he refused to give in and held them safely by half a length. Cashed for over $50 on my prime time investment!
Right back less than fifteen minutes in the featured race from New York, the Grade 3 Withers which was their first leg towards the Kentucky Derby. I found it very interesting that Brad Cox had sent his promising 3yo Hit Show to run here. This son of Candy Ride is with Cox's string at Oaklawn and he'd fired a best-of-38 bullet work, followed by a 2nd best of 46 work, and topped off with a best-of-50 five furlong bullet work over the Hot Springs track. Why not run in the Oaklawn prep? But he was here and I thought he'd run big. Saved ground while behind horses through the far turn. Found a seam at the top of the lane and drew off impressively. One to watch for sure.
Next up was the 10th at Gulfstream. It was a MSW for 3yo and I liked Bill Mott's colt, Arthur's Ride for a couple reasons. First, Mott typically brings his youngsters along slowly but this guy had been a dueling 2nd at Saratoga first time out. Then in his second start at the Spa over Labor Day weekend he was a just-miss 2nd. What was significant here is that the colt who beat him, Instant Coffee had won the Grade 3 Lecomte - the first leg on the New Orleans Derby trail - two weeks ago. First time Lasix for the Mott trainee and not one but two big bullet works over the deep Payson training track stamped him as the one to beat for me so I tripled the bet. After breaking just behind the first flight he quickly accelerated to the front. Took pressure all the way into the lane, then edged clear to win by daylight. Best of all he paid a generous $6.40 so I cashed for nearly $50 on my fourth straight winner, and fifth of six since snapping the long drought which began the day.
Missed at Oaklawn and then Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly champion Wonder Wheel could not get by a huge priced front runner in Tampa's Suncoast Stakes as she began to work towards the Kentucky Oaks. Then it was time for Gulfstream's feature, the Grade 3 GP Turf Sprint. Horse-for-the-Course Yes I Am Free (14/7-2-1) got the call for me. There was a TON of speed here and he looked to be able to sit up close before getting the jump on the closers. But instead, and with a couple of scratches, he broke on top and was clear by two easy lengths without any pressure into the stretch. By then when the stalkers and closers came calling it was far too late. And like Arthur's Ride in the 10th, I got a generous return of $8.60 allowing me to cash for almost $45. As soon as it went official I left for the hockey game. In between periods (we lost a close one) I watched Todd Pletcher's Litigate stamp his ticket to the Derby trail with a solid win in Tampa's feature, the Grade 3 Sam Davis....the final prep before the March 11th Tampa Bay Derby.
Sunday I ran 2nd twice and third twice before scoring on Todd Pletcher's impressive 3yo filly, Seduction in the finale. For the week - at Gulfstream exclusively - the races seemed to return to the same longshot-favoring scenario. From fifty races this week, TWENTY winners paid $10 or more / double digits; and 11 (22%) paid more than $20. But in spite of this, I'd returned to being less conservative and I made 25 bets locally. Scored with 9 of them, for the usual high 36% and made a flat bet profit. Good for me!
Next week is "Risen Star Day" at the Fair Grounds, the final big prep before the Louisiana Derby. The plan IS to be at Gulfstream as it's also a big day at Laurel Park in Maryland, the sister track to our home town venue.
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
Social Media this week......
Not much social interaction this week. Early in the week CBS anchor & gal-pal Lauren Pastrana posted a link on both Twitter and Facebook that she was doing a story on the Florida Marlins and their stadium. So I wrote to her and asked if she knew that the stadium hosted the Cypress Bay 2012 graduation where the keynote speaker was then Vice President / now President Joe Biden AND that I had been the one in charge of organizing that. She reacted to my comment on both platforms.
As I mentioned above I met our attractive ticket representative on Thursday. What I most liked was (a) that she came to my seat to find me, and even more so (b) when I wrote to her about how much I appreciated that, and her willingness to chat for a while I attached our photo. Her comment that she really liked the photo brought a smile to my face.
And finally, as I also mentioned in the journal, hottie handicapper and former Gulfstream Girl, Acacia Courtney-Clement told me she'd be at the Tampa Bay Derby when I am slated to be there in mid-March.
No comments:
Post a Comment