December 21 - 26
It was another, in what has become usual, slow week for finding winning selections in Hallandale. But hoping to see our fortunes turn as the Monday card, December 26 marks the OFFICIAL opening of the Championship Meeting! It was a special holiday week of racing with racing cards on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday - Christmas Eve Day - then dark on Sunday / Christmas Day - and then the special "Opening Day" card on Monday December 26. On that day I played the big Opening Day card at Santa Anita as well as the big "Road To The Derby Kickoff Day" at the Fair Grounds. Originally I thought I'd go out to the races live on Monday but the weather (rainy with highs in the low 40's) and the fact that Laurel's multi-stakes card got moved to Friday combined to have me stay at home and watch - especially with only four plays at the live racing Gulfstream card. The week at Gulfstream I continued to struggle - as did most handicappers. I went 2-for-20 with TEN of my misses running second or third. For the week, over a span of forty-five live racing events, 18 of them - an even 40% - had winners that paid double digits, with ten paying more than $15 and three paying more than $20, including a winner that paid over $125 for a $2 wager:
After being shut out the first two days where the "biggest" price runner I played was 2/1 over the seven races I finally scored on Friday when Love Her Lots was a clear winner in the fifth, a two-turn synthetic event and I cashed for almost $40 to help soften the spiraling decline in my bankroll. Saturday there were very few tracks running - most likely since it was Christmas Eve Day. I had a Todd Pletcher winner in Dude N Colorado in the opener, another synthetic route under MSW conditions which put more than $35 into the account. But was off the board in the final three choices of the day. No racing on Sunday, Christmas Day. And from four picks on the special Monday card I went 4/0-2-2. I'll take some consolation from the fact that three of the four losses were scheduled on the grass, but with a little bit of light rain on Sunday and Monday morning they were moved - as is the new norm - to the all weather track. Might be a reason contributing to the losses.
Originally I thought I'd be heading out to Gulfstream for the big day of racing. Santa Anita's traditional Opening Day card is loaded with stakes every December 26th, and this year - even with the date falling on a Monday, the Fair Grounds had multiple stakes races on their "Road To The Derby Kickoff Program." With Gulfstream only having two stakes I was excited to also play Laurel's "Christmastide Stakes" program with six stakes races. But the bitter cold weather led to that program being postponed to Friday the 30th. Got up Saturday to drizzling rain - which meant the races would probably come off the turf, and with temps predicted to not get out of the 50's I didn't see the point in watching the vast majority of my bets on the TV monitors when I could be warm, and dry, watching them on my own big screen TV. So I stayed home. After missing with the GP opener, moved to the synthetic where my choice went gate to final jump and was 2nd I got on the board at the Fair Grounds with Basalt Street. I wavered between not betting and having an added money bet and finally split the difference with a minimum wager. Had all the best figures, but had earned them for the most part in losses while building up a 15/3-5-0 resume. But what swayed me to bet was the bullet workout for today. Tracked the two leaders through the far turn, collared them in the stretch and edged clear in the final 16th.
Picked up my first stakes winner on the day in the Sugar Bowl Stakes, a six furlong sprint in New Orleans for juveniles. Corona Belt had debuted at Churchill Downs in the fall for Brad Cox and was bet down to favoritism. Ran away from the field impressively and earned a field best 82 Beyer - that's a big number for a debuting 2yo. The question was, will he be able to repeat anything like that here while facing winners (and stakes rivals) for the first time. That he was made the morning line 8/5 favorite told me that a lot of people must BELIEVE he was the real deal. Added Lasix today - a 40% win angle for the Cox barn and looked tough on paper. Broke a step or two slowly but quickly split horses to take the early lead. Seemed in hand while setting all the pace. As heads turned for home I thought to myself, "well, now we'll find out how good he is) and with that he opened up and ran away under mild urging. One to watch I think!
The third win on Monday was not originally on my selection sheet. When I'd handicapped the Santa Anita card and came to this, the fourth race of the day I couldn't separate the main contenders. And the reason for that was because in this MSW juvenile sprint there wasn't one Bob Baffert runner but THREE. And the most expensive one, $800K sales grad Faustin had the "lesser" of the three riders named for today. After the first half hour or so of watching the live stream from TwinSpires on the big screen TV I decided to switch over and watch the racing telecast from TVG - now FanDuel TV since they were carrying all three tracks. Early in the broadcast handicapper Scott Hazelton showed his early Pick-5 ticket and he singled in this race naming the expensive Baffert colt as that key runner. I found that interesting and then he commented that in the Kentucky Derby Early Wagering Pool, Faustin had taken so much money that he was not in the "everyone else" pool, but was 29/1 on his own......and he had not even run yet. UH OH. Broke a step slowly but moved up down the backstretch while getting into the clear. Moved up from fifth to second through the turn, engaged the leader and then kicked into another gear to draw off impressively. Another juvenile to watch carefully! After today's win his price dropped to 22/1 making him one of the FOUR SHORTEST PRICED picks in the early betting for the 2023 Kentucky Derby!
The second stakes win of the day came at the Fair Grounds in the filly version of the Sugar Bowl Stakes - this one the Letellier Stakes going six panels. And like that earlier race, the morning line favorite was a Brad Cox second time starter who'd whistled in her debut as the favorite. Dazzling Blue looked to be LONG gone if running back to her early pace figures from that debut, but that's a dangerous assumption even for an expensive sales grad like this $500K daughter of Into Mischief. Nearly identical to the first two winners today she was away slowly. But like the Corona Belt she rushed up to gain command quickly. Was challenged turning for home before the rider turned her loose and she drew off to an equally impressive win as her stablemate earlier on the day.
Got my first stakes winner on the So Cal card when I sent in a ticket on Bob Baffert's Country Grammer. It was interesting to me that legendary jockey Frankie Detorri had opted to spend the first few months of his final season of racing her in Southern California from his usual European base. He got the call on this guy who clearly was using this as a prep. The Grade 2 San Antonio was a mile and a sixteenth test, and as Detorri noted in the pre-race interview with hottie handicapper Brittney Eurton, a mile and an eighth would be considered "too short" for this classic distance runner. He would be pointing for the gigantic purses being offered in the Middle East again - the $20 Million Saudi Cup and the $12 Million Dubai World Cup. He'd missed by half a length in the former last spring before winning the latter - with these results contributing largely to his $10 Million in earnings this year. So the question was - was he simply just too good for this field even though the race was "too short" and he was probably NOT cranked up 100%. I thought he was. Detorri had him closer to the pace than he usually is - why he is a Hall of Fame rider - and he drew off handily as much the best.
I often say about my racing and handicapping that it's not about winning money - that's just a bonus - it's more about being right. And nothing makes me feel better about a day of racing, regardless of the win percentage, that to win a BIG Bet of the Day selection. Today that was Bob Baffert's very talented 3yo colt Taiba who was going to be the favorite in the seven furlong, Grade 1 Malibu. A win here, especially if impressive MIGHT be enough to get him the Eclipse Award as 3yo of the year. He was indeed very impressive in scoring with my big money wager on board. And so despite the way the week went, racing wise, I ended the week feeling pretty good. Now toss in the holiday cheer for the weekend, and especially all the holiday greetings I got from my online pals and it was indeed a Merry Christmas week!
Social Media This Week......
Karli Barnett Saturday / Christmas Eve Chat Highlights
Christmas Wishes From My Social Media Friends....
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