December 28 - January 1
No sooner back from our European trip and this weekend we were off to Orlando to celebrate Christmas with our 6yo grandson (who had so very patiently waited to open all his presents from not only us, but his parents). It was a big weekend of racing......Friday Laurel ran their Christmastide Stakes program which had been cancelled last Saturday; then on Saturday at Gulfstream it was the first big stakes day of the winter with SIX stakes races, five of them graded events. AND on Sunday three more stakes races for the newly turned 3yo's. Here's how the week turned out for me......
Wednesday's abbreviated eight race card saw me have selections in four of them.....one second and three fourth place finishes as the parade of longshots continued to come in ($11.00, $11.40, $7.40, $25.80, $12.40, $7.40, $5.60, and $13.80). Thursday's action saw me with bets in five of the nine races. Began the day by running second at even money in a photo finish. The third was a maiden claiming event for the bottom $12.5K tag. Jrue Breeze had run competitively against F-A-R better in all three career starts. The drop down and a cozy outside draw made him look easily best. Pressed the pace, and looked long gone at the top of the lane then was life-and-death to hold off the 2/1 second choice who came up the rail to duel him through the final eighth.
I ran fourth in my next race, then had the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in the 7th, but couldn't run down the front runner who went wire-to-wire. Then ran 5th at 9/5 odds. But at least I had A WINNER - the first half of the card was more formful, but the longshots were not to be denied through the remainder of the card ($10.80, $3.20, $8.00, $3.60, $8.20, $6.80, $12.80, $21.00, and $49.20). Friday we left for Orlando early in the morning so I had my early bets in for the Laurel card with their multiple stakes races with a first post before noon. Missed in the first two there at "fair" prices, then had the obvious choice in the first stakes race, the Heft Stakes. Sent off at 3/5 could not run down the $35.60 upset winner. What is it with longshots? In the fifth, the Gin Talking Stakes my pick Malibu Moonshine was sent off at a fair 2/1 but as the ran down the backstretch the 2yo filly was dead last. But in both her previous starts - a debut win and then an allowance score. So her position wasn't a worry. When they hit the turn she came flying on the inside and ran by the field to draw off as a handy winner.
I was off the board in the final three Maryland races. At Gulfstream I was fifth as the 6/5 favorite with the first bet, wow. Then in the fifth we were on the turf. New York Thunder had broken his maiden with a massive 92 Beyer last time out, but over the synthetic surface. Probably wouldn't run back to that - even if he adapted to the turf. But based on the competition, he could regress by some twenty points and STILL win for fun. Broke just a step slowly, dueled through the opening quarter and then took off in a visually impressive win. Third and sixth with the final two bets. Multiple big prices yet again today..... ($16.80, $29.40, $3.00, $8.00, $3.60, $18.40, $12.60, $9.00, and $13.00)
Saturday December 31: Mucho Macho Man Day
It was a big day Saturday with SIX stakes events and five of them were graded. It was an eleven race card and I believe it was the first time this winter, I had selections in every single race. Even my neighbor Mike, who's been playing the races frequently with my picks texted me and noted this. I had the lead and looked long gone in the opener with the 4/5 favorite, only to be run down by a longshot winner - seriously? But for the most part, today was the first day that was by and large formful. And no surprise, I had a very good day! The second was a MSW event for two-year-olds and Todd Pletcher had two in the field. I thought Shesterkin was the most likely winner with Irad Ortiz up. The two were VERY similar and leading jockey Luis Saez was on the other, but it appeared to me that the works for Shesterkin were slightly better. I noted in my analysis that I reserved the right to change the bet if the wagering reflected a strong favoritism for the "other" Pletcher (or the one logical runner with experience. Shesterkin vied for tepid favoritism until the got close to post time. Broke with the field but was immediately hustled to the front. Cleared the field but was only narrowly in front through the far turn. Now we'll find out I thought. Asked for run, he opened up and won for fun. The best part, his odds floated up past 3/1 odds. Paid $8.80 so I cashed for over $40. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Race 3 was the first of the graded stakes, the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl, a six furlong sprint for older fillies and mares. It was a short field and ON PAPER Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott's Frank's Rockette looked much the best. But that was the problem, she OFTEN looked best on paper but didn't deliver. In seven of the twelve running lines on the page she'd gone off as the short-priced favorite, but won only two of those. Still, she looked much MUCH the best and hard to beat. Right to the front and the farther they went, the bigger the margin. I've seen her run many times and this was far and away her most powerful performance. The final margin greater than a dozen in a swift 1:09 and change. Easy - peasy - pie.
I came right back in a claiming event on the turf with Christophe Clement's Classic Lady who proved handily best as the 3/2 favorite to make it three in a row. I thought I had my fourth win in a row when Todd Pletcher's Expect More tried two turns for the first time and just held off the second choice on the wire. But he DID drift out at the top of the lane and interfered with the runner-up. I honestly do not think it cost him the race, but in a photo finish so tight, that was an easy call that it COULD have cost him the race.
The Rampart Stakes was next. Gulfstream handicapper made Maryquitecontrary his BET of the Day. She'd won four of five starts with the lone loss coming off her debut MSW win when SECOND in the Azelea Stakes here. My only "question" was long-time journeyman Luca Panici was going to have to outride the "big boy" jockeys. But as I noted, it's the horse that runs the race. He did a great job keeping her in the clear to the turn. Circled the field and ran away for fun for my fifth straight selection to cross the wire first.
Ran second with a "good enough to bet" runner in the Grade 3 Suwannee Stakes at a nice 4/1 price. Then was off the board when Horse-for-the-Course Prevalence failed to fire in the Grade 3 Mr Prospector Stakes. The last three races were my best of the day. EVERYBODY knew that Todd Pletcher's two-time Pegasus Turf winner would be the favorite and likely winner in the prep today, the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale. Sat the perfect trip, swept up to challenge as the field swung for home, and stopped, finishing fifth. The "buzz" horse for the Pegasus World Cup, multiple Grop 1 winner O'Connor had won his North American debut by daylight and the horse he'd faced two back in Chile had won HIS North American debut (both here). Sent off at even money he was a non-threatening fourth. The finale of the day proved an old adage I often remark about.....while there were six big stakes events today my BEST BET of the Day was in an entry level allowance on the turf.....they pay the same for a MSW (Race 2), a straight claiming event (Race 4) or an entry level allowance (here in Race 11) as they do for the big stakes events. Chad Brown's Marketsegmentation had debuted a year ago and was much the best in his MSW debut. Was gone for nine months before running second behind stablemate Salimah who exited the race to win the Gio Ponti Stakes, then ship out west to be the post time favorite in Grade 1 company. Handled VERY confidently to the far turn stalking in fourth, Irad Ortiz let him go on the turn and he quickly swept to the front turning for home. Accelerated and drew off under wraps. WHOOOO HOOOO! Ended the day with five wins (officially - six times first across the wire) in eleven races for the best day to date of the meet.
Sunday saw the Gulfstream card have three stakes for three-year-olds. All the races went off as Kim and I were driving back home from Orlando. My lone win came in the Limehouse Stakes when Super Chow wired the field. A few anxious moments as he continued to drift farther and farther into the middle of the track through the lane, but still good enough to win under hottie rider Chantal Sutherland. After a "normal" and run-to-form Saturday, the bombs returned to a lot of the races here on Sunday. ($3.20, $11.20, $10.60, $60.00, $4.20, $9.20, $21.80, $41.40, and $12.60). For the week, including Saturday where three of the eleven paid double digits (one over $20) the week's races played out like this: 39 races run, 31 paid double digits with eight paying more than 10/1 odds......good luck having consistent success during December.
Social Media this week.....
Karli Barnett and I had a "conversation
On Saturday I chatted with Karli
During the week our good friend (and hottie MILF) Michelle posted on Facebook about her concern for looking "old" with wrinkles. She is such an adorable gal, and very good looking, still, that I wrote to her to reassure her that at least one guy thinks she's very good looking.
Finally, with the holiday I had several of "my girls" (interesting that none of my guy friends reached out to me) wish me a Happy New Year:
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