As I said in the synopsis on the main page, this game can be oh-so-humbling...and oh so quickly. And that probably is a good way to sum up the week. Back to reality after a big first month with big numbers that probably would be unrealistic to sustain over the length of the meet consistently. BUT I can hope that by meet's end I'll balance out with a solid win percentage and a positive return on investment. And this week certainly had it's highlights....just that when those were not happening it was a long afternoon (s) at the races. So here how it all played out.
Wednesday December 30
Truth be told, when I'd finished handicapping for Wednesday I felt like maybe (like last week) I was reaching with some of the selections. But, I had in the back of my head that last week when I'd been not solidly confident I won seven races in two days. Not so much this week. In the Wednesday opener Marlon B was squeezed to last out of the gate, had a big rally going when shut off in mid-stretch at 2/1. That's a "HORSE TO WATCH" if there ever was one! In the second my rider pressed the pace into the far turn, with a lot of confidence. Asked Bon Prix to run....nothing. Third, evenly at 8/5. In the fourth - after passing the third - I liked Saffie Joseph's Antigone, and I even mentioned, "..the first 'solid' selection on the day..." as he dropped out of a 420K 2L to this $12.5K 2L spot. Moving two turn turf to one-turn mile on the dirt, a 29% angle. Tracked my second choice to the durn, dueled three-wide into the lane then took off, long gone at 3/5 for the first win of the week.
Here we go! I thought. No.....6th at 9/5 in the fifth; never out of the back of the field at 5/1 in the 6th with a Todd Pletcher horse in the 6th; passed the eighth then was wide into the lane while rallying from too far back to be 2nd at 7/2 in the eighth on the turf with a Danny Gargan runner. My big pick in the ninth scratched out. And I was flying at 5/1 with a Pletcher MSW 2yo on the turf in the finale but just missed.
Thursday December 31
In retrospect Wednesday's 7/1-1-1 record looked pretty good compared to today's 7/0-1-1 resume. And what made it worse was through the first 3 1/2 hours plus I had a third from four runners. Finally ran 2nd in the 7th when my 3/2 favorite dueled with a 12/1 front runner in the lane, got his head in front and then was caught late by a 5/1 rail runner. A good try at 10/1 when 4th with a Todd Pletcher horse while jockey Junior Alvarado who'd been 1-for-40 heading into the week, won his FOURTH of the day on the favorite. Then another Pletcher runner who loved this course, off the layoff was a dismal 6th at 5/2.
Friday January 1 - HAPPY NEW YEAR
Finally a good day to talk about :) And the new year started off with a BIG BANG! I wrote in my analysis of the opener, " I'm hoping that bettors let 3-Third Time Around (4/1) go off at a fair price around the DRF morning line ..." And I thought that was very possible if you looked at his last two running lines. In this maiden claiming turf sprint for newly-turned three-year olds the rail runner had lost his rider after the opening quarter mile two back and then just walked off. Then last time the running line LOOKED like he'd stopped badly while fading to 7th. But on that day he'd left from post eight and pressed a wicked :21.1 opening quarter and then a sizzling :44.3 half mile WHILE RACING WIDE to the turn and then was FOUR WIDE at the quarter pole! Doing the math, I figured he'd actually run about a :43 second half mile. No wonder he faded to seventh. It was a solid clue that top jockey Luis Saez stuck with him. Moving to the rail, if he got away cleanly and ran even a couple clicks slower than last time he looked clear on the lead. And with Saez at the controls, skimming the rail, I thought he had a good chance at probably about 3/1 or maybe 7/2. Unfortunately as they moved into the gate he was hovering around 5/2...apparently the fans saw the same thing I did. But a ton of late money came in on two other runners dropping their odds to even money and 2/1. Right out of the gate Third Time Around was immediately clear by daylight, and after he'd clicked off the opening quarter in a sharp :21.1 I noted his odds now showed 7/2. That's great IF he hangs on I thought. He was only a half length in front on the turn, but I thought Saez had yet to ask. Into the lane, STILL only a half length clear. But then came the spurt and suddenly with a furlong to go he was a length plus in front. Kim was in the kitchen as I was watching and I said out loud, "Oh my....I may just win this and he's a good price!" She came around and watched the stretch run. Clear with a hundred yards to go, then a closer was gobbling up ground.....close.... but as Phil Saltzman at old Calder Race Course used to say, "...but they're not gonna get him today!" As the slo-mo replay ran the final odds flashed up - oh my. Third Time Around had gone from 5/2 at post time to all the way up to EIGHT TO ONE! The prices flashed up and he paid $19 to win....and I'd put $10 to win on him so I was cashing for almost $100 to kick off 2021. WHOOOOO HOOOOOO.
Passed on the second and ran fourth with a Pletcher horse at 3/1 - what's the deal? The usually reliable top trainer is now 0-for-4 on the week with my money going down the drain with him! I was 2/1 in the 4th, another turf sprint and got shuffled back losing all chance on the turn - 7th. The fifth was a maiden claiming event for older and Saffie Joseph's Luann looked like the real deal. As a firster the DRF had pegged her at 15/1 on the morning line, but I KNOW how that works. Their algorithm is typically WAY off. But she was getting pounded in the win pool. Checked out the multi-race wagers and she was a prohibitive favorite. Decided to up the bet from $10 to $15. Won for fun as MUCH the best and I collected nearly $30 more.
It was right after this race that it occurred to me....when the week started keeping records in 2005 for my overall handicapping stood at 8,996 - I only need four more wins to get to the next milestone of 9,000 wins. I'd scored once on Wednesday and I now had two winners today. The next one would be the magic one! I was the 9/5 favorite in the 7th in a starter for sophomores, but after pressing fractions that were too fast - I had thought top jockey Irad Ortiz would sit more off the pace - he faded to fourth. Would have to wait....passed the eighth. Oh now THIS would be great I thought. The next race is my BET of the Day in the featured Janus Stakes. How cool if I can get my 9,000 win in a stakes, that's the feature, at Gulfstream AND with the Bet of the Day? The Janus Stakes was a five furlong turf sprint for older and the two horses who SHOULD determine the outcome both came out of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Wait, what? That's right....it's a long way from a $1 Million Grade 1 on Championship Saturday to a $75K listed event on a Friday afternoon. But here they were. Extravagant Kid had finished fourth that day beaten a little more than a length in a blanket finish behind a 10/1 upset winner - who'd been MY top choice that day :) But he was NOT the pick. Oh no my friends. While 'Kid had a clean run to try and close down the suicidal pace at nearly 20/1 odds, my top pick, Imprimis had been bothered early and then completely shut off and stopped in mid-stretch while only 5/1 at post time. I'd forgotten his trouble, but after reading the "trouble line comment" in the Form which said, "stymied and steadied" I went back to look at it. That was putting it mildly. Then his trainer was interviewed and he said they thought they'd had "the best horse that day." So what you're telling me is that the PROBABLE WINNER of the Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint is running HERE for a $75K purse? But wait.... Imprimis showed TEN graded stakes in his 12-race pp's and he'd won five of the twelve races, all in stakes company! Further it was today's jockey, Irad Ortiz who'd been aboard for both his last win in a Gr 3 at Kentucky Downs and at the Breeders' Cup. A-N-D over the Gulfstream inner turf course, he boasted a perfect 4-for-4 record and he'd earned his career best Beyer of 110. YOWZA. This guy should be 1-9 in my book. Lastly, like you need any more info or angles, of the 108 races showing in the program for the race, there were five triple digit speed figures. FOUR by Imprimis and one by Extravagant Kid - who had been well beaten by Imprimis earlier in his career. As the field hit the far turn Ortiz had Imprimis in fifth on the heels of Extravagant Kid. They began to move as one, and the Kid was four wide while I was five wide turning for home. Lost a length or so but 'Kid had yet to be asked (neither had my pick). At the furlong marker jockey Tyler Gaffalione gave the GO to Extravagant Kid...Ortiz did the same and they both were gaining with each stride...this is going to be close....PHOTO FINISH!
I really thought I'd won, and even with the slo mo when they didn't immediately announce it I still thought I'd won. The winner - IMPRIMIS! WHOOOO HOOOO. I got Kim and asked her to please do a video of me "at Gulfstream" - via the Sunrise Simulcast Center. I was very, very excited to say the least. AND with the $30 WIN ticket, I cashed for over $50 to seal a nice winning day.
Thought I had an excellent chance in the finale, but was an average 4th as the 3/2 favorite. STILL, a winning day and cashed my 9,000th ticket. Too cool.
Saturday January 2 - You Never Know!
When I first looked at the racing calendar for today, the first big Saturday of 2021 I was surprised that while there were five listed stakes at Gulfstream, none of them graded. The ONLY other stakes in the entire country were at Santa Anita. Really? I went back and forth about if I'd only play Gulfstream today, but with all the big college football bowl games having been played YESTERDAY I thought, why not at least look at the other tracks. Just another reminder of what I say often - they pay the same amount for a winner in a claiming event or a maiden event as they do for a Grade 1 feature race. Today I had great success at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans where I almost didn't play because they didn't have any stakes events! I also handicapped Laurel and Tampa. Only had three picks from Laurel and one of those scratched - and at Tampa I found four of ten races that I liked, but one winner. So the day..... It was interesting as Gulfstream came on the air, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney (who reached out to me to come see her on Pegasus Day, see below), GP analyst Ron Nicoletti and sidekick Jason Blewitt ALL had the same two horses on top that I had and both horses scratched. The winner was a 70/1 bomber. WOW. In the opener at Laurel I was TWENTY-FIVE lengths off the pace into the far turn, you think I MIGHT have been too far out of it? Duh. Rallied to be fourth at 3/1. In the second at Gulfstream I thought Hard Game was good enough in a maiden claimer to bet. Trainer Mike Maker was making all kinds of "karma moves" - two-turn turf to one-turn, dirt, added Lasix, cut the price tag in half and put Irad Ortiz up. If he don't win today, he ain't ever gonna win. He was being hammered so since I'd missed out on the opener I doubled the bet. Ran away as easily best over a WEAK group and scored at 9/5.
After a Laurel scratch and two pass races I was 2nd at 4/5 in the third at Tampa. Was long gone into the turn, loose on the lead, but the second choice ran right by him. I DID go with Todd Pletcher's Fighting Force in the Dania Beach. Pressed the early leader but let him get away - probably thought he'd quit, but he just kept going. Second at 3/5. Right to the front again at Tampa, long gone on the turn. Asked to quicken in the lane...stopped. 6th at 2/1. Laurel, the prohibitive 3/5 favorite dueled to the turn, weakened to be third. WOW. Fifth at Gulfstream, the Glitter Woman. AGAIN went with Todd Pletcher. Luicifer's Lair had been in one of the stakes on Friday but scratched to run here - a really good sign. Sent off at a juicy 9/2, she was up close through the first quarter then literally dropped anchor to plummet to last beaten over thirty lengths, officially. Three passes out of town got me to the sixth at Gulfstream, a mile and a half turf starter. Tracked the leader to the turn, took over, "I've got the winner!" Caught late, third at 3/1. Tampa, stopped badly, 8th at 9/5. Took the lead in my first race from New Orleans at 2/1 in the stretch....dueled, outfinished to be third. The Limehouse Stakes at Gulfstream was a 6f stakes for 3yo and I liked Saffie Joseph's Drain The Clock. Had gone 3-for-3 locally over the summer then shipped to Delta Downs for a stakes and was the even money favorite. Jockey lost the irons and he didn't finish. Had whistled a 2nd best of 94 work for this. Tracked wicked fractions to the far turn, oh no - he's gone to fast. Took over turning for home. Then instead of being caught by the finishers he drew off ultra impressively. Watch for him down the road.
Missed at Tampa after getting a great ride to get to the front on the rail, opened up and was caught in the shadow of the wire at 7/2. Got my first out of town score in the fourth at the Fair Grounds - the first of four winners in New Orleans as it turned out. My Boy Gus must have shown something in the morning workouts prior to his debut for a big $40K at Churchill Downs because trainer Tom Amoss and Time Will Tell LLC ownership laid down the big money to claim him. Top rider Florent Geroux was up and he doesn't ride often for this outfit, but when he does, he wins (5-for-6, that's 83% for those of you without a calculator). Right to the front, under a hand ride to mid-stretch and finished the deal by daylight. Doubled the bet to collect nearly $30.
There were two Todd Pletcher runners in the 8th at GP - going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. A WIDE open affair. While the 9-hole was no bargain for Prayer Book, the 12-hole was even worse for the "other" Pletcher. Prayer Book was a half a million sales grad son of Uncle Mo with Irad up. Right out of the gate he was off slowly and the stable mate cleared the field under Saez. Wire to wire as I showed very little.....9th at 5/1 odds. And that was a "prime time" play. Not good. Next was a starter handicap at Tampa and it provided my lone winner there. But Quality Step was a nice 7/2 price when he took over on the turn and drove clear to the wire. The $9.80 payoff led to a nearly $25 collection even though I only had the minimum on the horse.
Fourth at the FG and then in the Ginger Brew I went against Pletcher for Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet, who to be fair I liked a lot. The Pletcher filly wired the field easily. That started a five race skid heading into the seventh at the Fair Grounds. It was almost 5 pm and I'd started at noon. For the five hours of watching and wagering I'd cashed on just four of twenty-one selections. That's not EVEN close to my usual 30-35%....and you do NOT need a calculator to determine that my friends. Ok, racing gods....I am completely humbled by now. The 7th at the Fair Grounds was an entry level allowance turf sprint. King Pin had been a just-miss third in a Monmouth stakes last time out but would have to overcome the layoff. He'd only been out three times and with Geroux up I was encouraged that he'd won HERE for fun with a big 87 Beyer on debut. He was caught behind horses into the lane. Geroux switched him outside, split rivals and was j-u-s-t up in the shadow of the wire. I'd doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $30 again. Maybe we can get one or two more before the day ends?
Missed in the finale at GP with our "day-maker" at 8/1 when fanned way too wide into the lane and weakened to eighth. With the way the day was going I was a bit hesitant on my next bet. It was a no conditions allowance at the Fair Grounds and I'd made Jus Lively my BEST BET in New Orleans. He'd just been a best-of-the-rest 3rd in the Louisiana Legends Classic (where the odds-on favorite dueled with a loose on the lead longshot and couldn't get by but they were multiple lengths clear of Jus Lively). 'Lively not only faced better but was 4/3-1-0 at this mile-70 trip. But, not cashing tickets. What to do? KEEP FIRING! Went prime time on him as planned. Stalked the leaders to the top of the lane, dueled briefly with the second choice turning for home then opened up and was LONG gone. Nice. Cashed for almost $40 and suddenly I've won two-of-three and this is more like it. Scrambling to at least get sort of an average win percentage today!
Right back in New Orleans in the ninth where it was a turf route, maiden special for three-year-olds. Interestingly, in the last, the Jus Lively race, jockey Florent Geroux had entered the race with SEVEN straight wins to start 2021. But my pick outran him to the wire. He looked to start a new streak on the favorite, Saranya. She'd debuted on the turf and was a just-miss second to a filly that came right back to win. For some reason her next two came on the main track and while she ran good, she didn't win. Today, back on the grass (21% on the surface switch), first time Lasix, off a short break (26%), and the fact that Geroux was a 29% winner for trainer Brad Cox. Bobbled out of the gate along the wood, but Geroux shot through to the front, cleared off and was never threatened. Tripled the bet here and cashed for over $30. Three straight at the Fair Grounds led to collecting almost $100 and I'm back in the game with an "ok" day going.
I was really up in the air about my final play of the day. First of all, I didn't even download the pp's for Santa Anita and I'd placed the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on my selection sheet just because of all the hype for Bob Baffert's dazzling debut winner, Life Is Good. He was 2/5 in the program off his lights out, electrifying win while sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. The concern here was first, could he get two turns. Second, would he go to fast, or would he relax on what was certain to be the lead. And third, what about the "other" Baffert in the field? But everyone picked him, in spite of the price. I'd listed him as a $30 Best of the Day bet. But all day I'd been contemplating upping the wager. After listening to the analysts on both the TVG broadcast and the online handicappers I felt comfortable doing it. $50 TO WIN was the play! All in the gate, and he'd floated up from 1/9 to 1/5 and I was ok with that as a "fair price" considering how good he SHOULD be. Jockey Mike Smith had been confident reading between the lines in his pre-race interview so I thought he'd get the distance. The gates opened and Life Is Good hesitated, bobbled somewhat. Uh oh...not good when a front runner can't get to the front. And going this two-turn mile at Santa Anita it's a quick run to the first turn. But Smith let the colt do his thing and he cleared the field easily. He went fast but seemed well within himself hitting the far turn. Smith didn't move a muscle as the colt galloped into the lane some half a dozen clear. But someone forgot to tell the jockey of the "other Baffert" that he was supposed to be "satisfied" with second. The rider was after his colt and he was quickly making up ground. Smith glanced over at the infield jumbotron at the furlong pole and began asking Life Is Good inside the 16th pole. But this hardly ever works once a runner THINKS the race is over. But he dug in and won by a little less than a length. Smith pointed out that past the wire when the other colt got on even terms with Life Is Good the colt immediately hit the gas and accelerated past that one - "you're not beating me my friend." A good sign for down the road.
Collected $60 for the bet and finished the day with 30% winners. Considering how the day went up until about 5pm I was MORE than good with the way the day turned out.
The final day of the week, and after yesterday's multi-race scores I thought I'd have a pretty good day to "balance out" the win average. No. Zigged when I should have zagged all day. 3rd at 3/1, 6th at 5/2, 2nd at 5/2, 7th at 8/1 (with trouble), 8th at 9/5 when a 30/1 went wire to wire, and finally 7th at 9/2 with a complete no-show. The ONLY win of the day came when I took Mark Casse's Curlin's Catch in the 4th, a MSW for 3yo. It's just automatic to bet $10 to win on these kind, but there was the 8/5 favorite in here was a Pletcher filly. The Pletcher filly had missed not once but twice at GPW as the favorite and it's been my experience when Pletcher unveils them over there and they don't win, they're a cut below the runners here at "the big track." Luis Saez set Curlin's Catch out on the lead going the one-turn mile and she never looked back. My final win of the week. As a side note - our anniversary. After a good morning together Kim's Mom, who's staying with us currently, wasn't "right" - just seemed off. So Kim took her to Urgent Care, and they sent her to the ER, and they checked her into the hospital. NOT the way we anticipated spending our day. Kim left the house at 2 pm; got home about 12:30 after midnight. So much for a celebratory day :(
The World Of Social Media
So my girls....between late Christmas reactions (from Lauren Pastran, my newscaster girl), New Year's wishes, a birthday, anniversary wishes, and a shout out regarding the Pegasus World Cup, I had several interactions with some very nice looking gal-pals. Check them out:
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