Gulfstream Park Championship Season: Gulfstream Park: Week 6

It's Tropical Turf Week at Gulfstream - the last week before we go back-to-back-to-back SUPER SATURDAYs of racing action. It was the first full week of the new year and the racing was week was generally just an "ok" week. No big winning days, but nothing like "I can't believe the way the racing went today. I did hit the highlight race of the week (after my top choice scratched out, so that made it even the more sweet) and hit the BET of the WEEK. Let's see how this week turned out.....

Wednesday January 6

Today the day started off great! jockey Marco Meneses was riding my top choice, Raulito, in the opener and the horse seemed oh-so-obvious in this maiden claiming route for sophomores. The concern was that Meneses was off to a 1-for-75 start - OUCH. But the horse was clearly the best. None, zero of the combined 29 Beyers posted by the rest of the field would top the WORST figure he'd earned on the turf. A QUADRUPLE BEYER Advantage! YOWZA! Meneses gave the colt a great ride, sitting mid-pack to the far turn, split horses in mid-stretch and drew off as much the best. WHOOO HOOOO!

I'd tripled the bet, so what a great way to start :) However the rest of the day was a frustrating experience as I ran second four times and third on another occasion and several times I looked to be the winner turning for home, only to fail to finish the job. Had those three horses held on I would have been nearly $150 richer at the end of the day. Ahhhh, racing. Sigh. On to Thursday.....

Thursday January 7

After passing the Thursday opener the top pick in the 2nd was off dead last (even worse for hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney who had singled this filly in her Pick-5). Fourth. In the third I liked Saffie Joseph's debuting filly Tonalism. Had multiple bullet works on her resume and go-to rider Edgard Zayas was up. Also liked the open-air outside box draw. I thought she'd be very tough in spite of never having run again. I tripled the bet. Broke just a beat slowly, was quickly up to engage the front running second choice in my analysis. Cruised by on the turn and ran off by double digits in a most impressive debut.

Passed the next two before we came to the sixth where my top choice, Todd Pletcher's Black Magic Woman was the prohibitive 7/5 morning line favorite AND was Jason Blewitt's single on his Rainbow Pick-6 ticket. Despite this being a one-turn mile MSW on the dirt and her first two starts had been in dirt sprints she'd been a quick closing third in a turf event last time. The return to the main track and back to back bullet works just added to the appeal. She was VERY confidently handled while under pressure on the front end to the top of the lane. When Tyler Gaffalione gave her the cue she opened up and was LONG GONE. Cashed for over $25.

In the seventh I considered upping the bet, but then backed off. Clever me....ran third at 2/1. Found it intriguing that in the day's feature BOTH Gulfstream's Ron Nicoletti and the DRF analyst made 6/1 Fully Loaded their BEST BET in a turf sprint. I liked him as well. Bet down to 3/1 he ran fourth without excuse. Closed the day when I was the 6/5 favorite and apparent front runner, only to be outsprinted to the front and then gave way to finish fifth. Still, two wins today - both with the biggest bets of the day - made it a better day than Wednesday :)

Friday January 8

Todd Pletcher's Speight was everyone's pick in the opener, a maiden claimer for 3yo and was even money. Pressed in a perfect spot to the turn, stopped and finish last of six. Passed in the second and then my 7/2 choice in the third also died through the lane. In the fourth I'd picked Descente to win a one-turn mile starter optional claiming event. I was only going in for the minimum as I didn't fully trust her lifetime best speed figure when she won the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper on Opening Weekend. But in watching the "Early Show," hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney influenced my opinion....

I have found Acacia is an excellent handicapper and if she was singling Descente, I was on board with upping the ante. I decided to probably up the bet, but wanted to wait and see how she was being bet. She was a short priced favorite in the WIN pool and all the multi race wagers, so I not only doubled, but tripled the bet. Tracked the leaders early, slipped up the rail approaching the turn and ran away with an effort that clearly matched her big 89 Beyer from the last.

So smart to up the bet :) In the fifth, a claiming event for newly turned 3yo I noted in my analysis that the "top two" morning line choices had earned Beyers of 10 & 15 and 7 & 6 in their last two each. Big time no bet.....good thing as the winner was 13/1 over a 20/1 where a $2 exacta paid $459.20. WOW. In the sixth it was similar to the Descente scenario. In fact in my analysis I wrote, ".... How did Descente run in the 4th? That MAY offer a clue as to what to do with the obvious favorite 4-Reservenotattained (9/5) in here. Why? Because much like Descente's out-of-character Beyer career top, 'Reserve rolled to a romping win with a career best Beyer 92 last time out ....." I watched the pre-race analysis, and much like in the Descente race looked at the payoffs. Decided to double the bet. He dueled to the far turn, then took over under confident handling and ran away. Another good decision!

In the 7th I couldn't separate Nitro Time and Exchange Day in a starter for 3yo. I was close to betting Nitro Time who was Acacia's Pick-6 single in that multi-race sequence. I wasn't as convinced, and unlike the other two which I'd already planned to play (just upped the wager), here I would be going from a "watch/pass" to a double investment. And while it shouldn't make a difference, I did think, what are the odds that BOTH of Acacia's singles would hit when I changed my bet on both? So I thought, it won't hurt to watch and he was the favorite so it wasn't like I was losing out on a big score. Sure enough, Nitro Time walked with it. In the eighth it was a typical entry level allowance with an eclectic group of runners. Hard to pick. BUT I thought Bramble Berry looked pretty solid. She'd been a runaway winner at Monmouth in early August and off the claim had run three sharp races. Her Beyers were clearly best in the field and even her worst number was as good as the top figures for her closest rivals. She tracked the speed between runners, was in tight but would not yield, then took off at the top of the stretch to post a clear win....my third of the day :)

Passed the final two races so I ended with a good 3-for-5 day but most of all had raised the bet on two of the three. Well played today!

Saturday: Tropical Turf Day

Today was an "ok" day, I mean after all I closed with six wins from 21 selections, nearly 30%. A couple of things made me feel good about the day despite the sub-par win percentage and the loss of a little money. First, my Bet of the Day had scratched out of the feature and I went with a back-up pick who won; second, I decided NOT to play out west where there were two feature races and both horses I'd liked on paper were upset by a price-play winner; and finally, third, the way I viewed the results was this.....since I've begun keeping records it's like clockwork: take the number of winners I have, divide by two and that's the sum of the second and third place finishers I have. Which is why I learned long ago it is more profitable FOR ME to bet strictly to win that to win/place or win/place/show because most the cashed tickets would be in the win column, so better to have all the money there. So with that in mind, I had 16 in the money finishes. That SHOULD have been 8 wins and four place and show spots each. If that were the case I would have been 8-for-21 which would be my typical 38% winners and no matter which ones you picked, I'd have finished with a profit. Instead I was 21/6-5-5. Just one runner from the place and one from the show would have made a HUGE difference, so I was much closer than it would appear. I was second with a horse in the opener at Gulfstream which I played because they were a fair price with a "chance." Passed the next three and had a scratch so it was an hour to the next play. Third at 4/5 at Laurel before I hit at Gulfstream. Chad Brown had a couple of first timers today and I liked them both. Here Lamutanaatty was an Into Mischief colt who'd drawn $700K at the Keeneland sales from the powerful Shadwell Stables group. Irad Ortiz was up and he had eight solid works. I was hoping I wouldn't regret going against not one but two Pletcher maidens. As they turned for home Lamutanaatty took the lead by one of the Pletcher's came to him, dueled, but a nose in front....oh no....but then Lamutanaatty came back and edged clear late. Was a generous 5/2 so I cashed for over $35.

Missed at Tampa with the 1/2 favorite who looked much the best when loose on the lead and just had no response in the lane. The fourth at Gulfstream was a mile and three-eighths marathon turf event. Trainer Mike Maker does excellent work with these kind of horses and I thought that Bluegrass Parkway looked the part. Went against a Pletcher runner, again. 'Parkway was in the back to the turn, ducked inside to save ground, moved into the clear, split horses, closed with a rush......PHOTO FINISH!

The more I watched the replay the more I was unsure and after the judges kept looking and both horses circled outside the winner's circle I thought, "I'd be happy for even a dead heat to get my money back." The official announcement came, it WAS a dead heat. I'll take that.

Missed at Tampa, again before I got a winner at Laurel (the only one from four picks on their card. For the rest of the day the races were spaced out and I ran 2nd at 4/1, then 6th at 4/5, second again at 5/2, and third at 9/5 before we they went into the gate for the third at the Fair Grounds. This was a starter optional claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. All Fact had been claimed out of a Churchill Downs dirt sprint by trainer Joe Sharp. At that point she'd been out 21 times with twenty of those coming in dirt sprints. Sharp moved her to the turf and she earned a career Beyer with a best of the rest second in a grass sprint. Then last time out he stretched her out and she was a dazzling winner by more than half a dozen lengths with another new career Beyer more than fifteen points higher than the previous. Years ago when I used William L. Scott's "Form Factor" handicapping system, I found that the "Big Win" angle like this often produced winners next time out. She looked solid to me. Handled patiently to the final furlong along the inside, she slid outside into the clear and was gone. I rant 6th at 8/1 with the other Chad Brown firster at GP. Was 2nd at 4/5 at Laurel and third at 9/5 at Tampa when I finished fast, got a head in front inside the final 100 yards but was passed on the wire by two deep closers. A dismal 9th at 7/1 with a Pletcher runner, then 7th at 2/1 at the Fair Grounds and finally a 2nd as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in New Orleans topped the next sequence. Now it was time for the featured Grade 3 Tropical Turf at Gulfstream. I'd liked Chad Brown's Analyze It as my Bet of the Day but he suffered a quarter crack in a Friday work, so he was withdrawn. I considered sitting out the race, but decided to look again at the past performances. As I scanned them I kept coming back to Ride A Comet from the Mark Casse barn. In his five turf tries showing (four on the clip below) he'd won four of them including a Gr 2. BUT that had been in the fall of 2018. Off the extended layoff he'd returned with a win at Woodbine over the all-weather going 7f and then beat the best sprinter in Canada (Pink Lloyd) winning the Grade 2 Kennedy Road. That Casse put him back on the turf, and in a two-turn graded event seemed awfully ambitious unless he felt confident. And at 5/1 I thought it was a sharp play.

Tyler Gaffalione tracked the pace while fourth into the far turn, them moved in tandem with Bill Mott's Casa Creed, the co-favorite. The two raced on even terms through the stretch but in the final 200 yards Ride a Comet edged clear. WHOOOO HOOOOO. My double investment returned over $30 to the bank account.

Was third at even money at the Fair Grounds before an hour delay to the final play of the day in the feature in New Orleans. The ninth was the Menard Memorial going five and a half furlongs on the turf. Five of the top six finishers from the December 5th Pan Zareta Stakes were returning here and I almost always look for a "new shooter" in those circumstances. But today I liked the beaten favorite from that event, Into Mystic. He'd run 2nd that day despite being more than four lengths off the pace, which was unusual for him. Before that race he'd been on the pace in the Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint. I thought new rider Florent Geroux would have him where he would run best. Sure enough, Geroux had him a little over two lengths off the pace setter into the stretch before switching off the rail. Split horses, accelerated and in a perfectly timed ride was clear under the wire. The favorite netted me over $20 to close down the day.

Sunday January 10

I learned some things today.....with my sister and niece in town I wanted to get them out of the house on this beautiful Sunday afternoon. Kim and her Mom opted not to come along. When we got there, of course we couldn't go into the track, but we'd planned on simply having lunch at the Yardhouse which is right across the sidewalk from the walking ring and I'd watch the races from there. What I discovered was that not only are there people hanging out along the back barrier looking at the horses, but there is also a wagering machine there AND the televisions on the Yardhouse patio dining area were showing the races. So you COULD "go to the races" so to speak. We arrived and sat down right before the horses came out for the opener, a maiden claiming event going a mile on the turf. Typically once a runner has failed on six tires to get the job done I won't bet them unless it's REALLY under unusual circumstances. And well, as I often say, "the rule in handicapping is there are NO RULES." Accessible looked to be odds on in spite of having ELEVEN losses on his resume. Why? Well, first, he'd lost seven times under other connections before moving into the Mike Maker barn. New start! Maker let him try MSW company ONE more time and it was a "no," so he moved him into $40K spots at Belmont. Toss the one-off-the-turf (where he didn't run bad) and you were left with three Beyer figures of 71-69-69 and those were clearly better than anything else on the page. Add in Irad Ortiz to ride AND that Accessible was dropping to this $20K spot and bingo.....he's your winner. As we ordered our lunch he moved up on the far turn, came out in the stretch without ever being asked. Once Irad shook the reins he exploded and won for fun.

Missed in the second while a distant 6th at 2/1 behind my second choice - ironically I liked them both on their angles and had to pick one angle over the other. Sigh....The third, as I explained to my sister and niece would see my pick either win as much the best at a very short price, or finish well off the television screen as a very well beaten favorite. Noble Empire was a Todd Pletcher maiden going with Irad Ortiz and those were the angles I hung on to. He'd lost in four straight under former trainer D. Wayne Lucas and was a just-miss second last January. Off for eleven months he showed up here, went off the 3/5 favorite and was beaten nearly 25 lengths. Ouch. Now dropped out of MSW company all the way to the bottom, with a $12.5K price tag. OBVIOUSLY for sale. But as I explained to my lunch company, normally this would be a play against. But Mr. Todd Pletcher takes great pride in being a sixteen time training king here, so if he's going to put a horse up for sale, he'd much rather take a lower sales price and KNOW HE WILL WIN than put him in for a higher tag where he might win. Noble Empire tracked the pace setter to the far turn then drew off despite drifting wide through the lane.

Ironically, Pletcher got the win, got the nearly $12K in prize money and no one took the horse! Don't be surprised to see him in for the cheap again! We left shortly after he crossed the wire and headed for home. I really thought I had some legit picks along the rest of the day but ran 6th at 7/2; 6th again at 3/1 with a horse I really liked; 6th AGAIN at 9/2 when left at the gate until we finally arrived at the feature race of the day. This was a no-conditions AOC sprint going six furlongs. Obviously a comeback race for the classy Mischievous Alex, but I thought he laid over the field BIG time.

The only question was, would he be ready to run today? He classed up over these and the two times he'd run at about this level (in the Parx Juvenile and then HERE in the Gr 3 Swale) he'd demolished the competition. Note that the win here came off the shelf and with Irad, like today. The only other "hmmm" thought I had was that his sprints and both his Gr 3 victories had come at longer....in fact he had NEVER run at today's six furlong distance. But, balancing that out he was now in the care of Saffie Joseph who's been doing really well and with increasingly better horses. Liked that in twenty-six mounts for Joseph over the last two years, Ortiz had won with THIRTEEN of them, a whopping 50%. I made Mischievous Alex the BET of the WEEK. Patiently handled in fourth midway through the turn, even though a rival from behind blitzed by with a move to challenge. When let loose he hit high gear four wide without being asked. Opened up easily and was asked for run for just about a sixteenth of a mile before being motored down to cross the wire easily.

Was an excellent 2nd at 7/1 with the possible "upset special" in the finale to close down the week. Very much looking forward to Sunshine Millions Day next Saturday. Hoping we get to be out there at a restaurant with my Mom in tow.

The Week's Highlights